Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Air Travel, and Experience Economy. Themes include Low-Cost Air Travel, Digital Passenger Experience, Show more.

Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.5%

Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -91%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%

Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -386 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -10%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 253%

Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%

Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25%

Key risks
ULCC key risks include [1] persistent profitability challenges and ongoing cash burn, Show more.

0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Air Travel, and Experience Economy. Themes include Low-Cost Air Travel, Digital Passenger Experience, Show more.
1 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.5%
2 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -386 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -10%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 253%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -10%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%
7 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 61%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -25%
9 Key risks
ULCC key risks include [1] persistent profitability challenges and ongoing cash burn, Show more.

ULCC in ETFs

Weight = ULCC's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.00%
IWM0.01%
VB0.01%
IYT0.08%
IWO0.03%
DFAS0.02%
VBK0.01%
+6 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/9/2026

Frontier (ULCC) stock has gained about 120% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Stronger-than-anticipated Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Report.

Frontier Airlines reported its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 5, 2026, posting an adjusted net loss of $0.30 per share, which significantly surpassed analysts' consensus estimates ranging from -$0.36 to -$0.38 per share, representing a 21% beat on EPS guidance. Additionally, quarterly revenue grew by 16.8% year-over-year to $1.07 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.04 billion. This positive financial performance, with adjusted revenue reaching nearly $1.1 billion on 1% lower capacity compared to fiscal Q1 2025, fueled investor confidence.

2. Strategic Fleet Rightsizing and Significant Cost-Saving Initiatives.

The company announced a non-binding agreement in fiscal Q2 2026 for the early termination of 24 aircraft leases, along with plans for an additional 10 sale-leasebacks. This strategic move, which incurred no liquidity penalty in 2026, is projected to result in a target of $200 million in annual run-rate cost savings by 2027, including approximately $90 million in annual rent savings from these lease terminations.

Show more
Updated on 7/9/2026

Frontier (ULCC) stock has gained about 120% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Stronger-than-anticipated Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Report.

Frontier Airlines reported its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings on May 5, 2026, posting an adjusted net loss of $0.30 per share, which significantly surpassed analysts' consensus estimates ranging from -$0.36 to -$0.38 per share, representing a 21% beat on EPS guidance. Additionally, quarterly revenue grew by 16.8% year-over-year to $1.07 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $1.04 billion. This positive financial performance, with adjusted revenue reaching nearly $1.1 billion on 1% lower capacity compared to fiscal Q1 2025, fueled investor confidence.

2. Strategic Fleet Rightsizing and Significant Cost-Saving Initiatives.

The company announced a non-binding agreement in fiscal Q2 2026 for the early termination of 24 aircraft leases, along with plans for an additional 10 sale-leasebacks. This strategic move, which incurred no liquidity penalty in 2026, is projected to result in a target of $200 million in annual run-rate cost savings by 2027, including approximately $90 million in annual rent savings from these lease terminations.

3. Extension and Expansion of Co-branded Credit Card Partnership.

On June 30, 2026, Frontier extended and expanded its long-standing co-branded credit card partnership with Barclays. This renewed agreement is set to enhance value for cardmembers and notably increased Frontier's pre-purchased miles facility to $375 million.

4. Positive Operating Guidance and Upgraded Analyst Price Targets.

Frontier provided optimistic operating guidance for fiscal Q2 2026, forecasting Revenue per available seat mile (RASM) to be up over 20% and stage-length adjusted RASM to increase by high-teens on a percentage basis compared to the corresponding fiscal Q2 2025. Following these developments, several analysts raised their price targets for ULCC, with Barclays increasing its target to $7 from $4 in June 2026, and Citigroup raising its target to $9 from $5 in June 2026, reflecting a more favorable outlook for the stock.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 118.1% change in ULCC stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 114.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120267092026Change
Stock Price ($)3.537.70118.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,7243,8042.1%
P/S Multiple0.20.5114.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)229229-0.4%
Cumulative Contribution118.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ULCC118.1% 
Market (SPY)15.6%34.7%
Sector (XLI)12.0%45.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 63.5% change in ULCC stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 61.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120257092026Change
Stock Price ($)4.717.7063.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,7293,8042.0%
P/S Multiple0.30.561.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)228229-0.5%
Cumulative Contribution63.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ULCC63.5% 
Market (SPY)10.5%42.1%
Sector (XLI)17.1%46.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 112.1% change in ULCC stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 115.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020257092026Change
Stock Price ($)3.637.70112.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,8223,804-0.5%
P/S Multiple0.20.5115.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)227229-1.1%
Cumulative Contribution112.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ULCC112.1% 
Market (SPY)22.7%38.0%
Sector (XLI)24.0%43.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The -20.4% change in ULCC stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020237092026Change
Stock Price ($)9.677.70-20.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,5693,8046.6%
P/S Multiple0.60.5-21.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)218229-4.9%
Cumulative Contribution-20.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/9/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ULCC-20.4% 
Market (SPY)75.6%42.1%
Sector (XLI)75.8%47.3%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
ULCC Return-28%-24%-47%30%-34%52%-62%
Peers Return-3%-34%6%53%1%22%28%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%9%99%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ULCC Win Rate56%25%33%42%50%43% 
Peers Win Rate42%42%43%63%52%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%43% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ULCC Max Drawdown--42%-77%-65%-70%-52% 
Peers Max Drawdown-38%-48%-47%-37%-49%-32% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LUV, JBLU, ALGT, DAL, UAL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/9/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventULCCS&P 500
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-31.9%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven46.8%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven31 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-65.7%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven191.6%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven467 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-40.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven69.2%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven78 days427 days

Compare to LUV, JBLU, ALGT, DAL, UAL

In The Past

Frontier's stock fell -31.9% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 46.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventULCCS&P 500
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-31.9%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven46.8%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven31 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-65.7%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven191.6%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven467 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-40.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven69.2%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven78 days427 days

Compare to LUV, JBLU, ALGT, DAL, UAL

In The Past

Frontier's stock fell -31.9% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 46.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Frontier (ULCC)

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) is a low-fare airline company that specializes in providing air transportation services for passengers. The company's core business revolves around offering affordable travel options, making air travel accessible across its extensive network.

Frontier primarily serves the market of air travelers within the United States and extends its reach to various international destinations across the Americas, connecting approximately 120 airports. Its operations are facilitated by a fleet of 110 Airbus single-aisle aircraft. Customers typically access Frontier's services through its direct distribution channels, including its official website, mobile application, and dedicated call center.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Frontier (ULCC):

  • It's like Spirit Airlines, known for its ultra-low fares and unbundled services.

  • The Ryanair or easyJet of the United States, offering very low base fares.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Air Transportation Services: Frontier provides low-fare air travel for passengers to various domestic and international destinations.

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Major Customers of Frontier (ULCC)

Frontier, as a low-fare airline, primarily serves individual passengers rather than other businesses. Its major customer categories include:

  • Leisure Travelers: Individuals and families seeking affordable air travel for vacations, holidays, and personal trips. Given Frontier's low-cost model, this segment represents a significant portion of its customer base.
  • Price-Sensitive Travelers: This category encompasses passengers who prioritize the lowest possible fare when booking flights. This can include students, retirees, budget-conscious families, or anyone for whom cost is the primary determinant in their travel choices.
  • Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) Travelers: Passengers traveling specifically to visit family members or friends. This segment often seeks economical travel options, making Frontier a suitable choice for their needs.

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  • Airbus (EADSY)
  • Pratt & Whitney (RTX)

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James G. Dempsey, President and Chief Executive Officer
James G. Dempsey was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. in January 2026. He previously served as President since October 2023, with direct responsibility for Commercial, Customer Care, and Operations Research, Design, and Planning functions. Mr. Dempsey was also the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from December 2019, and Chief Financial Officer from May 2014. Before joining Frontier, he held senior management roles at Ryanair Holdings PLC, including Treasurer from July 2006 to April 2014 and Head of Investor Relations from 2003 to 2006. He also served in various management roles with PricewaterhouseCoopers from 2000 to 2003. Frontier's controlling shareholder, Indigo Partners, is a private equity fund, indicating Mr. Dempsey's extensive experience managing a private equity-backed company.

Mark C. Mitchell, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mark C. Mitchell has served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. since October 2023. Prior to this role, he was the Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations since February 2022 and Chief Accounting Officer since September 2015. Before joining Frontier in 2015, Mr. Mitchell held various leadership positions at Starwood Hotels and Resorts Worldwide, Inc. from February 2007 to September 2015, including Vice President, Accounting from 2013 to 2015, and Corporate Controller for Starwood Vacation Ownership, Inc. from 2007 to 2015.

Howard M. Diamond, Executive Vice President, Legal and Corporate Affairs
Howard M. Diamond has served as Executive Vice President, Legal and Corporate Affairs since February 2024. He previously held the position of Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary since July 2014. Before joining Frontier, Mr. Diamond served as Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of Thales USA, Inc. from January 2008 to July 2014. From 2003 to 2008, he was Chief Counsel at BAE Systems Land and Armaments. Mr. Diamond began his legal career as an officer in the U.S. Army JAG Corps from 1994 to 1997.

Alex Clerc, Senior Vice President, Customers
Alex Clerc became Frontier's Senior Vice President, Customers in January 2024. He previously worked as a Senior Expert with McKinsey & Company in their Transport and Travel Practice. Mr. Clerc's extensive experience in the aviation industry includes serving as Chief Operating Officer for Interjet Airlines in Mexico, Head of Operations Planning for Spirit Airlines, Chief Operating & Cost Officer for Volotea Airlines in Spain, and various senior roles in Tech Ops and Strategic Planning for Southwest Airlines.

Trevor J. Stedke, Senior Vice President, Operations
Trevor J. Stedke serves as Frontier Airlines' Senior Vice President of Operations. He previously held the position of Vice President of Technical Operations at Frontier. Before joining Frontier, he gained experience in leadership roles in airline operations and technical services.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key risks to Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC):

  1. Fuel Price Volatility

    As an airline, Frontier is highly susceptible to fluctuations in jet fuel prices, which directly impact its operating costs and can erode its thin margins, a particular challenge for ultra-low-cost carriers. Recent increases in jet fuel prices have already led to revised financial outlooks and increased expenses for the company. Despite Frontier's fuel-efficient fleet, significant and sudden price spikes remain a substantial threat to its profitability.

  2. Intense Competition and Pricing Pressure

    Frontier operates in a highly competitive ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) market, facing pressure from rivals like Spirit Airlines and Allegiant Air, as well as larger carriers. This intense competition often leads to fare softness, aggressive pricing, and capacity surges in key leisure markets, which can negatively impact Frontier's yields and load factors. The industry's oversupply has reportedly contributed to pricing wars, further compressing margins for ULCCs.

  3. Persistent Profitability Issues and Rising Non-Fuel Operating Expenses

    Frontier has faced ongoing challenges in achieving and sustaining profitability, experiencing net losses in recent periods. A significant contributor to this is the struggle to control non-fuel operating expenses, measured by Cost per Available Seat Mile excluding fuel (CASM ex-fuel), which has seen increases. These rising costs, coupled with the inherent operational risks of the airline industry such as labor disputes, air traffic control inefficiencies, and the need to maintain high aircraft utilization, further pressure the company's financial performance and its ability to maintain its low-cost advantage.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC), a low-fare airline company, operates in the passenger air transportation sector. Its addressable markets primarily include the low-cost airline markets in the United States and the broader Americas. The addressable market sizes for Frontier's main products and services are as follows: * United States Low-Cost Airline Market: The market size for low-cost airlines in the United States was estimated at approximately USD 95.17 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.0% during the forecast period. Another estimate places the US low-cost carrier market size at USD 51.81 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 69.35 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 2.6% from 2025-2035. * North America Low-Cost Airline Market: The North American low-cost airline market size was valued at USD 120.62 billion in 2024. This market is expected to reach approximately USD 175.02 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 4.2% from 2024 to 2031. North America held more than 40% of the global low-cost airline revenue in 2024. * Latin America Low-Cost Airline Market: The low-cost airline market in Latin America was approximately USD 15.08 billion in 2024. It is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.4% from 2024 to 2031.

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Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:

  1. Network and Capacity Expansion: Frontier is actively expanding its route network and increasing capacity. The airline has announced numerous new routes and increased departures from existing airports, including a 40% increase in departures from Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) this year versus 2024. In 2025, Frontier plans to launch 16 new routes across 21 airports in the U.S. and Caribbean. This expansion is also strategically positioned to capitalize on opportunities in the ultra-low-cost segment, potentially filling gaps left by competitors. For example, new routes will overlap with major markets previously served by Spirit Airlines.
  2. Enhanced Product Offerings and Ancillary Revenue Growth: Frontier is focused on boosting ancillary revenue through new product introductions and loyalty program enhancements. The airline recently launched "UpFront Plus," an upgraded seating option with extra legroom and a guaranteed empty middle seat in the first two rows. Furthermore, Frontier plans to introduce First Class seating on every flight by late 2025. Improvements to the "FRONTIER Miles" loyalty program, set to begin in 2025, will offer additional benefits such as free seat upgrades and the ability to redeem miles for baggage and seating bundles.
  3. Fleet Modernization and Fuel Efficiency: The continuous modernization of Frontier's fleet with more fuel-efficient Airbus A320neo family aircraft is a driver of both capacity growth and cost savings, indirectly supporting revenue growth through competitive pricing. The company has over 200 new Airbus planes on order, ensuring continued fleet expansion and efficiency improvements. As of December 31, 2023, 79% of its fleet comprised the more fuel-efficient A320neo family aircraft, the highest among major U.S. carriers.
  4. Strong Travel Demand and Revenue Management Initiatives: Frontier anticipates higher unit revenues driven by robust travel demand, moderating competitive capacity, and ongoing revenue management initiatives. The company has reported strong demand and fare trends extending into the spring booking period, which supports anticipated year-over-year revenue growth. Analysts also forecast an 18% revenue growth for fiscal 2026, supported by these factors.

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Share Repurchases

No information available regarding share repurchases made or authorized by Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) within the last 3-5 years.

Share Issuance

  • Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on April 1, 2021.
  • The company priced its IPO at $19 per share, issuing 30 million shares.
  • This IPO raised $570 million for the company.

Inbound Investments

  • Frontier Group Holdings was acquired in December 2013 by an investment fund managed by Indigo Denver Management Company, LLC, an affiliate of Indigo Partners, LLC.
  • Indigo Partners LLC remains a significant institutional shareholder as of September 30, 2025.

Outbound Investments

No information available regarding outbound investments made by Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) within the last 3-5 years. A merger agreement with Spirit Airlines was terminated.

Capital Expenditures

  • Frontier's capital expenditures increased significantly to $63 million in 2021 and peaked at $152 million in December 2022.
  • Capital expenditures subsequently decreased to $87 million in 2023 and $76 million in 2024, with $75 million in 2025.
  • The primary focus of capital expenditures is fleet expansion and modernization, with over 220 new Airbus planes on order to enhance fuel efficiency and support growth. The company also entered agreements to terminate 24 aircraft leases and defer deliveries of 69 A320neo jets previously expected between 2027 and 2030, a move aimed at trimming capacity and preserving cash.

Better Bets vs. Frontier (ULCC)

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ULCCLUVJBLUALGTDALUALMedian
NameFrontier Southwes.JetBlue .Allegian.Delta Ai.United A. 
Mkt Price7.7049.225.92114.6589.00129.0569.11
Mkt Cap1.824.52.22.158.041.813.4
Rev LTM3,80428,8849,1622,64065,17860,46519,023
Op Inc LTM-386981-3882205,7545,077601
FCF LTM-540-401-1,1641813,9213,207-110
FCF 3Y Avg-376-557-1,250482,6222,652-164
CFO LTM-3992,401-884668,3969,5201,434
CFO 3Y Avg-2682,060554017,6768,8151,231

Growth & Margins

ULCCLUVJBLUALGTDALUALMedian
NameFrontier Southwes.JetBlue .Allegian.Delta Ai.United A. 
Rev Chg LTM-0.5%4.7%-0.5%3.3%5.2%4.7%4.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg2.2%5.2%-2.0%2.5%6.5%7.4%3.8%
Rev Chg Q8.8%12.8%4.7%4.8%12.9%10.6%9.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.1%2.9%1.1%1.3%2.9%2.4%2.3%
Op Inc Chg LTM-997.7%99.8%-252.7%35.1%-3.3%-9.3%-6.3%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-177.0%113.3%-184.2%3.5%14.4%11.6%7.5%
Op Mgn LTM-10.1%3.4%-4.2%8.3%8.8%8.4%5.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-3.1%1.9%-2.0%7.4%9.8%9.3%4.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-6.1%1.9%-0.5%1.6%-0.4%-0.0%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM-10.5%8.3%-1.0%17.7%12.9%15.7%10.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-7.2%7.4%0.6%15.6%12.3%15.2%9.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-14.2%-1.4%-12.7%6.8%6.0%5.3%2.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-10.0%-2.0%-13.5%1.8%4.2%4.5%-0.1%

Valuation

ULCCLUVJBLUALGTDALUALMedian
NameFrontier Southwes.JetBlue .Allegian.Delta Ai.United A. 
Mkt Cap1.824.52.22.158.041.813.4
P/S0.50.80.20.80.90.70.7
P/Op Inc-4.625.0-5.79.510.18.28.9
P/EBIT-4.921.1-8.422.69.27.28.2
P/E-4.830.0-3.1-60.813.011.44.2
P/CFO-4.410.2-24.94.56.94.44.4
Total Yield-20.7%4.9%-32.5%-1.6%7.9%8.8%1.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.6%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-36.6%-3.0%-66.0%4.5%7.6%10.5%0.7%
D/E3.00.34.30.90.30.70.8
Net D/E2.50.13.30.50.30.40.4

Returns

ULCCLUVJBLUALGTDALUALMedian
NameFrontier Southwes.JetBlue .Allegian.Delta Ai.United A. 
1M Rtn21.3%14.5%20.3%32.3%9.9%17.7%19.0%
3M Rtn101.0%22.9%20.1%32.0%31.9%32.1%31.9%
6M Rtn59.8%15.7%17.5%24.0%25.8%11.8%20.7%
12M Rtn92.0%45.2%40.0%117.2%78.1%61.0%69.5%
3Y Rtn-26.5%36.8%-36.2%-6.5%90.3%129.1%15.1%
1M Excs Rtn26.7%18.7%22.5%37.4%12.2%20.7%21.6%
3M Excs Rtn91.9%11.1%6.2%21.3%20.2%22.8%20.7%
6M Excs Rtn52.5%8.3%8.1%14.4%15.6%1.2%11.3%
12M Excs Rtn72.3%26.4%16.2%89.1%57.5%37.7%47.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-91.0%-27.5%-103.5%-77.4%22.9%65.1%-52.4%

Comparison Analyses

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Provides air transportation for passengers3,7243,7753,5893,3262,060
Total3,7243,7753,5893,3262,060


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$7.70 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1.8 
First Trading Date04/01/2021 
Distance from 52W High-4.5% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$5.81$4.80
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA32.6%60.4%
 3M1YR
Volatility89.4%84.5%
Downside Capture144.20263.10
Upside Capture366.55282.23
Correlation (SPY)33.9%37.9%
ULCC Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.902.401.852.442.492.14
Up Beta1.402.301.442.833.152.56
Down Beta1.592.362.341.741.731.92
Up Capture453%695%425%478%676%703%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days13253760122343
Down Capture67%18%66%178%164%112%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days8152562122392

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ULCC
ULCC94.0%84.4%1.14-
Sector ETF (XLI)23.0%16.7%1.0743.5%
Equity (SPY)22.3%12.5%1.3338.1%
Gold (GLD)24.4%27.8%0.7717.6%
Commodities (DBC)23.6%18.7%1.00-22.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.2%13.9%0.6522.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-42.8%42.8%-1.1822.0%

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Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ULCC
ULCC-14.5%70.3%0.07-
Sector ETF (XLI)13.7%17.6%0.6148.3%
Equity (SPY)13.4%17.1%0.6143.6%
Gold (GLD)18.0%18.3%0.805.6%
Commodities (DBC)7.5%19.5%0.28-1.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.9%18.9%0.0635.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)12.3%53.5%0.4223.3%

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Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ULCC
ULCC-8.5%69.2%0.05-
Sector ETF (XLI)14.8%20.0%0.6547.9%
Equity (SPY)15.8%17.9%0.7543.2%
Gold (GLD)11.7%16.1%0.595.8%
Commodities (DBC)6.1%18.0%0.27-0.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.2%20.7%0.2235.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)58.0%66.2%0.9821.0%

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Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity23.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 53120262.4%
Average Daily Volume4.5 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.3 days
Basic Shares Quantity229.4 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares10.4%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/8/2026
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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/5/20266.8%23.0%39.4%
2/11/2026-7.9%-11.7%-43.0%
11/5/20251.0%5.5%44.4%
8/5/2025-15.8%-19.1%36.4%
5/1/20258.0%19.9%28.9%
2/7/202515.5%5.3%-25.4%
10/29/2024-14.4%-21.6%-23.4%
8/8/20242.9%1.3%21.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131110
# Negative81011
Median Positive6.8%10.2%30.5%
Median Negative-11.2%-14.4%-19.6%
Max Positive20.8%53.0%57.9%
Max Negative-19.8%-21.6%-43.0%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/5/20266.8%23.0%39.4%
2/11/2026-7.9%-11.7%-43.0%
11/5/20251.0%5.5%44.4%
8/5/2025-15.8%-19.1%36.4%
5/1/20258.0%19.9%28.9%
2/7/202515.5%5.3%-25.4%
10/29/2024-14.4%-21.6%-23.4%
8/8/20242.9%1.3%21.0%
5/2/20241.7%3.1%-6.3%
2/6/202420.8%53.0%57.9%
10/26/20239.1%-15.9%5.2%
8/1/2023-6.2%-13.2%-27.9%
5/3/2023-19.8%-16.1%-4.2%
2/8/2023-14.9%-15.7%-21.6%
10/26/202216.5%28.2%32.1%
7/27/202220.5%28.1%19.4%
4/28/2022-0.1%-4.1%-1.6%
2/7/20223.5%10.2%-19.6%
11/10/2021-2.3%-3.5%-17.2%
8/4/20213.6%7.5%8.2%
5/13/20212.4%-4.9%-4.0%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131110
# Negative81011
Median Positive6.8%10.2%30.5%
Median Negative-11.2%-14.4%-19.6%
Max Positive20.8%53.0%57.9%
Max Negative-19.8%-21.6%-43.0%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/18/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/18/202510-K
09/30/202410/29/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/20/202410-K
09/30/202310/26/202310-Q
06/30/202308/01/202310-Q
03/31/202305/03/202310-Q
12/31/202202/22/202310-K
09/30/202210/26/202210-Q
06/30/202207/27/202210-Q
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Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/18/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/18/202510-K
09/30/202410/29/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/20/202410-K
09/30/202310/26/202310-Q
06/30/202308/01/202310-Q
03/31/202305/03/202310-Q
12/31/202202/22/202310-K
09/30/202210/26/202210-Q
06/30/202207/27/202210-Q
03/31/202205/12/202210-Q
12/31/202102/23/202210-K
09/30/202111/10/202110-Q
06/30/202108/04/202110-Q
03/31/202105/13/202110-Q
12/31/202004/02/2021424B4
03/31/201705/09/2017S-1/A

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/8/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 EPS-0.6-0.53-0.45   
Q2 2026 Capacity Growth6.0%7.0%8.0%   
Q2 2026 Liquidity900.00 Mil925.00 Mil950.00 Mil   
2026 Pre-delivery deposits, net of refunds-210.00 Mil-190.00 Mil-170.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: -190.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital Expenditures170.00 Mil195.00 Mil220.00 Mil-13.3% LoweredGuidance: 225.00 Mil for 2026

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted per share-0.44-0.35-0.26  Lower NewGuidance: 0.12 for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Capacity growth-2.0%-1.5%-1.0% -1.5%Lower NewGuidance: 0.0% for Q4 2025
2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted per share-0.40.050.5   
2026 Capacity growth 10.0%    
2026 Pre-delivery deposits, net of refunds-210.00 Mil-190.00 Mil-170.00 Mil   
2026 Other capital expenditures200.00 Mil225.00 Mil250.00 Mil   

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2025 Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted earnings per share0.040.120.2-135.3% Higher NewActual: -0.34 for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Capacity growth 0.0%  4.5%Higher NewActual: -4.5% for Q3 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 6/17/2026
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#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Schuller, SteveSVP, Human ResourcesDirectSell60920266.0010,00060,011583,157Form
2Clerc, AlexandreSVP, CustomersDirectSell60420265.935,06030,006282,854Form
3Wetzel, Josh AVP & CAODirectSell52120264.7513,50064,13357,297Form
4Stedke, Trevor JSr. Vice President, OperationsDirectSell51120265.4183,110449,633904,985Form
5Schuller, SteveSVP, Human ResourcesDirectSell20920266.005,00030,000569,556Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Schuller, SteveSVP, Human ResourcesDirectSell60920266.0010,00060,011583,157Form
2Clerc, AlexandreSVP, CustomersDirectSell60420265.935,06030,006282,854Form
3Wetzel, Josh AVP & CAODirectSell52120264.7513,50064,13357,297Form
4Stedke, Trevor JSr. Vice President, OperationsDirectSell51120265.4183,110449,633904,985Form
5Schuller, SteveSVP, Human ResourcesDirectSell20920266.005,00030,000569,556Form
6Biffle, BarryCEODirectSell121220255.7882,627477,6753,652,707Form
7Schuller, SteveSVP, Human ResourcesDirectSell121220256.005,00030,000463,872Form
8Biffle, BarryCEODirectSell121220256.0117,373104,4224,294,351Form
9Biffle, BarryCEODirectSell120820255.54100,000554,2904,056,494Form
10Biffle, BarryCEODirectSell120820255.0544,813226,2254,199,274Form
11Biffle, BarryCEODirectSell120820255.0455,187277,9004,414,454Form
12Clerc, AlexandreSVP, CustomersDirectSell91120255.333,80020,26014,006Form
13Diamond, HowardEVP, Legal & Corporate AffairsDirectSell90920255.5035,401194,706408,072Form
14Diamond, HowardEVP, Legal & Corporate AffairsDirectSell90420255.8031,503182,717635,657Form
15Schuller, SteveSVP, Human ResourcesDirectSell90420256.0010,00060,000385,980Form
16Genise, Robert JDirectSell90420255.5230,000165,5221,823,688Form
17Diamond, HowardEVP, Legal & Corporate AffairsDirectSell90420255.6726,306149,273800,666Form
18Biffle, BarryCEODirectSell90420255.63423,8822,385,7354,502,640Form
19Biffle, BarryCEOFamily TrustSell90420255.6348,949  Form
20Biffle, BarryCEOSpouseSell90420255.58158,975  Form
21Schroeter, RobertSVP, Chief Commercial OfficerDirectSell90320254.7521,055100,087180,228Form
22Clerc, AlexandreSVP, CustomersDirectSell82820254.585,48525,12729,442Form
23Clerc, AlexandreSVP, CustomersDirectSell60420253.8912,00046,65846,316Form
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/9/2026