Frontier (ULCC)
Market Price (10/31/2026): $6.44 | Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Frontier (ULCC)
Market Price (10/31/2026): $6.44Market Cap: $1.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Air Travel, and Experience Economy. Themes include Low-Cost Air Travel, Digital Passenger Experience, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -16% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -439 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -9.5% Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 273% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -33% Key risksULCC key risks include [1] persistent profitability challenges and ongoing cash burn, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Air Travel, and Experience Economy. Themes include Low-Cost Air Travel, Digital Passenger Experience, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -16% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -439 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -9.5% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 273% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -33% |
| Key risksULCC key risks include [1] persistent profitability challenges and ongoing cash burn, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Frontier (ULCC) stock has lost about 20% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent GAAP Net Losses and Narrow Operating Margins Dampened Profitability Outlook.
Frontier Airlines reported a GAAP net loss of $90 million, or $0.39 per share, for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), despite record revenue of $1.3 billion. This unprofitability was further highlighted by narrow operating margins, with unit revenue of 11.52 cents per available seat mile closely tracking a total unit cost of 12.39 cents. For fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), the company again reported a GAAP net loss of $104 million, which included $134 million in charges related to the early return of 13 A320neo aircraft as part of its fleet rightsizing strategy. This consistent GAAP unprofitability, despite record revenues, contributed to investor concerns regarding sustained financial health.
2. Soaring Fuel Costs Increased Operating Expenses and Clouded Future Guidance.
A significant macroeconomic headwind was the substantial increase in fuel costs. In fiscal Q3 2026, Frontier's fuel expense totaled $425 million, with an average cost of $3.96 per gallon, marking a 56% increase year-over-year and representing approximately $150 million in incremental expense. Looking ahead, the company's fiscal Q4 2026 guidance projected an even higher average fuel cost of $4.75 per gallon, which is $1.25 more than its previous forecast and is expected to add over $100 million in expense. These elevated and rising fuel prices significantly impacted profitability and presented an ongoing challenge for the airline's financial outlook.
Show more
Frontier (ULCC) stock has lost about 20% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent GAAP Net Losses and Narrow Operating Margins Dampened Profitability Outlook.
Frontier Airlines reported a GAAP net loss of $90 million, or $0.39 per share, for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), despite record revenue of $1.3 billion. This unprofitability was further highlighted by narrow operating margins, with unit revenue of 11.52 cents per available seat mile closely tracking a total unit cost of 12.39 cents. For fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026), the company again reported a GAAP net loss of $104 million, which included $134 million in charges related to the early return of 13 A320neo aircraft as part of its fleet rightsizing strategy. This consistent GAAP unprofitability, despite record revenues, contributed to investor concerns regarding sustained financial health.
2. Soaring Fuel Costs Increased Operating Expenses and Clouded Future Guidance.
A significant macroeconomic headwind was the substantial increase in fuel costs. In fiscal Q3 2026, Frontier's fuel expense totaled $425 million, with an average cost of $3.96 per gallon, marking a 56% increase year-over-year and representing approximately $150 million in incremental expense. Looking ahead, the company's fiscal Q4 2026 guidance projected an even higher average fuel cost of $4.75 per gallon, which is $1.25 more than its previous forecast and is expected to add over $100 million in expense. These elevated and rising fuel prices significantly impacted profitability and presented an ongoing challenge for the airline's financial outlook.
3. Negative Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Downgrades Signaled Deteriorating Outlook.
During the period, multiple prominent analyst firms downgraded Frontier's stock and lowered their price targets, reflecting a negative sentiment. For example, Barclays reduced its price target from $7.00 to $5.00 on September 11, 2026, while maintaining an "underweight" rating. Similarly, UBS Group lowered its target price from $7.00 to $6.00 on September 24, 2026, and Susquehanna followed by cutting its target from $7.00 to $6.00 on October 7, 2026. These collective revisions by analysts signaled a deteriorating outlook and contributed to the downward pressure on the stock.
4. Substantial Insider Selling Activity Undermined Investor Confidence.
Aggregated insider selling activity significantly impacted investor sentiment. Over the 90 days prior to October 7, 2026, company insiders collectively sold approximately 12 million shares of Frontier Group stock, totaling an estimated value of $87 million. This considerable divestment by individuals with intimate knowledge of the company's operations signaled a lack of confidence in its near-term prospects and likely contributed to the downward stock trajectory.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -18.5% change in ULCC stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/30/2026 was primarily driven by a -32.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.91 | 6.45 | -18.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,804 | 4,623 | 21.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.3 | -32.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 229 | 230 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -18.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ULCC | -18.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.2% | 49.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | -9.6% | 36.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 82.7% change in ULCC stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 48.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 3.53 | 6.45 | 82.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,724 | 4,623 | 24.1% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.3 | 48.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 229 | 230 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 82.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ULCC | 82.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.5% | 41.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.8% | 41.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 46.1% change in ULCC stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.42 | 6.45 | 46.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,778 | 4,623 | 22.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.3 | 20.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 228 | 230 | -1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 46.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ULCC | 46.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.4% | 41.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 9.5% | 44.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.3% change in ULCC stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 27.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 4.84 | 6.45 | 33.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,627 | 4,623 | 27.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.3 | 9.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 219 | 230 | -4.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 33.3% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ULCC | 33.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 82.9% | 42.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 71.7% | 46.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ULCC Return | -28% | -24% | -47% | 30% | -34% | 37% | -66% |
| Peers Return | -3% | -34% | 6% | 53% | 1% | -8% | -3% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ULCC Win Rate | 56% | 25% | 33% | 42% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 43% | 63% | 52% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ULCC Max Drawdown | - | -42% | -77% | -65% | -70% | -52% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -48% | -47% | -37% | -49% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LUV, JBLU, ALGT, DAL, UAL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/30/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ULCC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -31.9% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.8% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -65.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 191.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Frontier's stock fell -31.9% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 46.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | ULCC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -31.9% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.8% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -65.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 191.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 467 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -40.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Frontier's stock fell -31.9% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 46.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Frontier (ULCC)
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) is a low-fare airline company that specializes in providing air transportation services for passengers. The company's core business revolves around offering affordable travel options, making air travel accessible across its extensive network.
Frontier primarily serves the market of air travelers within the United States and extends its reach to various international destinations across the Americas, connecting approximately 120 airports. Its operations are facilitated by a fleet of 110 Airbus single-aisle aircraft. Customers typically access Frontier's services through its direct distribution channels, including its official website, mobile application, and dedicated call center.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Frontier (ULCC):
It's like Spirit Airlines, known for its ultra-low fares and unbundled services.
The Ryanair or easyJet of the United States, offering very low base fares.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Air Transportation Services: Frontier provides low-fare air travel for passengers to various domestic and international destinations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Major Customers of Frontier (ULCC)
Frontier, as a low-fare airline, primarily serves individual passengers rather than other businesses. Its major customer categories include:
- Leisure Travelers: Individuals and families seeking affordable air travel for vacations, holidays, and personal trips. Given Frontier's low-cost model, this segment represents a significant portion of its customer base.
- Price-Sensitive Travelers: This category encompasses passengers who prioritize the lowest possible fare when booking flights. This can include students, retirees, budget-conscious families, or anyone for whom cost is the primary determinant in their travel choices.
- Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) Travelers: Passengers traveling specifically to visit family members or friends. This segment often seeks economical travel options, making Frontier a suitable choice for their needs.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Airbus (EADSY)
- Pratt & Whitney (RTX)
AI Analysis | Feedback
James G. Dempsey, President and Chief Executive Officer
James G. Dempsey was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. in January 2026. He previously served as President since October 2023, with direct responsibility for Commercial, Customer Care, and Operations Research, Design, and Planning functions. Mr. Dempsey was also the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from December 2019, and Chief Financial Officer from May 2014. Before joining Frontier, he held senior management roles at Ryanair Holdings PLC, including Treasurer from July 2006 to April 2014 and Head of Investor Relations from 2003 to 2006. He also served in various management roles with PricewaterhouseCoopers from 2000 to 2003. Frontier's controlling shareholder, Indigo Partners, is a private equity fund, indicating Mr. Dempsey's extensive experience managing a private equity-backed company.
Mark C. Mitchell, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mark C. Mitchell has served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. since October 2023. Prior to this role, he was the Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations since February 2022 and Chief Accounting Officer since September 2015. Before joining Frontier in 2015, Mr. Mitchell held various leadership positions at Starwood Hotels and Resorts Worldwide, Inc. from February 2007 to September 2015, including Vice President, Accounting from 2013 to 2015, and Corporate Controller for Starwood Vacation Ownership, Inc. from 2007 to 2015.
Howard M. Diamond, Executive Vice President, Legal and Corporate Affairs
Howard M. Diamond has served as Executive Vice President, Legal and Corporate Affairs since February 2024. He previously held the position of Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary since July 2014. Before joining Frontier, Mr. Diamond served as Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of Thales USA, Inc. from January 2008 to July 2014. From 2003 to 2008, he was Chief Counsel at BAE Systems Land and Armaments. Mr. Diamond began his legal career as an officer in the U.S. Army JAG Corps from 1994 to 1997.
Alex Clerc, Senior Vice President, Customers
Alex Clerc became Frontier's Senior Vice President, Customers in January 2024. He previously worked as a Senior Expert with McKinsey & Company in their Transport and Travel Practice. Mr. Clerc's extensive experience in the aviation industry includes serving as Chief Operating Officer for Interjet Airlines in Mexico, Head of Operations Planning for Spirit Airlines, Chief Operating & Cost Officer for Volotea Airlines in Spain, and various senior roles in Tech Ops and Strategic Planning for Southwest Airlines.
Trevor J. Stedke, Senior Vice President, Operations
Trevor J. Stedke serves as Frontier Airlines' Senior Vice President of Operations. He previously held the position of Vice President of Technical Operations at Frontier. Before joining Frontier, he gained experience in leadership roles in airline operations and technical services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC):
-
Fuel Price Volatility
As an airline, Frontier is highly susceptible to fluctuations in jet fuel prices, which directly impact its operating costs and can erode its thin margins, a particular challenge for ultra-low-cost carriers. Recent increases in jet fuel prices have already led to revised financial outlooks and increased expenses for the company. Despite Frontier's fuel-efficient fleet, significant and sudden price spikes remain a substantial threat to its profitability.
-
Intense Competition and Pricing Pressure
Frontier operates in a highly competitive ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) market, facing pressure from rivals like Spirit Airlines and Allegiant Air, as well as larger carriers. This intense competition often leads to fare softness, aggressive pricing, and capacity surges in key leisure markets, which can negatively impact Frontier's yields and load factors. The industry's oversupply has reportedly contributed to pricing wars, further compressing margins for ULCCs.
-
Persistent Profitability Issues and Rising Non-Fuel Operating Expenses
Frontier has faced ongoing challenges in achieving and sustaining profitability, experiencing net losses in recent periods. A significant contributor to this is the struggle to control non-fuel operating expenses, measured by Cost per Available Seat Mile excluding fuel (CASM ex-fuel), which has seen increases. These rising costs, coupled with the inherent operational risks of the airline industry such as labor disputes, air traffic control inefficiencies, and the need to maintain high aircraft utilization, further pressure the company's financial performance and its ability to maintain its low-cost advantage.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Network and Capacity Expansion: Frontier is actively expanding its route network and increasing capacity. The airline has announced numerous new routes and increased departures from existing airports, including a 40% increase in departures from Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) this year versus 2024. In 2025, Frontier plans to launch 16 new routes across 21 airports in the U.S. and Caribbean. This expansion is also strategically positioned to capitalize on opportunities in the ultra-low-cost segment, potentially filling gaps left by competitors. For example, new routes will overlap with major markets previously served by Spirit Airlines.
- Enhanced Product Offerings and Ancillary Revenue Growth: Frontier is focused on boosting ancillary revenue through new product introductions and loyalty program enhancements. The airline recently launched "UpFront Plus," an upgraded seating option with extra legroom and a guaranteed empty middle seat in the first two rows. Furthermore, Frontier plans to introduce First Class seating on every flight by late 2025. Improvements to the "FRONTIER Miles" loyalty program, set to begin in 2025, will offer additional benefits such as free seat upgrades and the ability to redeem miles for baggage and seating bundles.
- Fleet Modernization and Fuel Efficiency: The continuous modernization of Frontier's fleet with more fuel-efficient Airbus A320neo family aircraft is a driver of both capacity growth and cost savings, indirectly supporting revenue growth through competitive pricing. The company has over 200 new Airbus planes on order, ensuring continued fleet expansion and efficiency improvements. As of December 31, 2023, 79% of its fleet comprised the more fuel-efficient A320neo family aircraft, the highest among major U.S. carriers.
- Strong Travel Demand and Revenue Management Initiatives: Frontier anticipates higher unit revenues driven by robust travel demand, moderating competitive capacity, and ongoing revenue management initiatives. The company has reported strong demand and fare trends extending into the spring booking period, which supports anticipated year-over-year revenue growth. Analysts also forecast an 18% revenue growth for fiscal 2026, supported by these factors.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
No information available regarding share repurchases made or authorized by Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) within the last 3-5 years.
Share Issuance
- Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on April 1, 2021.
- The company priced its IPO at $19 per share, issuing 30 million shares.
- This IPO raised $570 million for the company.
Inbound Investments
- Frontier Group Holdings was acquired in December 2013 by an investment fund managed by Indigo Denver Management Company, LLC, an affiliate of Indigo Partners, LLC.
- Indigo Partners LLC remains a significant institutional shareholder as of September 30, 2025.
Outbound Investments
No information available regarding outbound investments made by Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) within the last 3-5 years. A merger agreement with Spirit Airlines was terminated.
Capital Expenditures
- Frontier's capital expenditures increased significantly to $63 million in 2021 and peaked at $152 million in December 2022.
- Capital expenditures subsequently decreased to $87 million in 2023 and $76 million in 2024, with $75 million in 2025.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures is fleet expansion and modernization, with over 220 new Airbus planes on order to enhance fuel efficiency and support growth. The company also entered agreements to terminate 24 aircraft leases and defer deliveries of 69 A320neo jets previously expected between 2027 and 2030, a move aimed at trimming capacity and preserving cash.
Peer Outperformance in Passenger Airlines
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULCC | Frontier | 9.1% | -3.6x | 75.3% | 90.3% | -58.8% | — |
| UAL | United Airlines | 7.7% | 9.5x | 11.6% | 197.7% | 125.9% | +185pp |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines | 7.9% | 16.0x | 41.8% | 165.2% | 112.8% | +172pp |
| LUV | Southwest Airlines | 7.6% | 19.7x | 43.5% | 103.5% | -2.2% | +57pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 55.5% | 57.8% | 159.8% | MATX 186% · KEX 175% |
| Construction & Engineering | 29 | -6.3% | 106.7% | 152.2% | STRL 1339% · FIX 1275% · AGX 809% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 13.4% | 67.0% | 104.9% | ALSN 249% · CAT 231% · WAB 217% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 52 | -10.2% | 63.7% | 67.6% | ATI 929% · FTAI 906% · HWM 581% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 22.0% | 43.3% | 61.7% | DXPE 429% · URI 221% · AIT 215% |
| Diversified Support Services | 34 | 16.8% | 43.6% | 35.8% | CXW 259% · OPLN 166% · CACI 135% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 72 | 2.5% | 50.4% | 35.8% | CRS 865% · MLI 344% · SYM 280% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 32.3% | 58.6% | 29.9% | CSX 54% · UNP 41% · NSC 30% |
| Building Products | 32 | -6.7% | 15.1% | 22.5% | GFF 363% · TT 141% · JCI 124% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 37 | -6.3% | 79.7% | 17.1% | POWL 1863% · VRT 810% · BE 550% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 36.2% | 6.3% | 11.9% | R 275% · XPO 263% · ARCB 43% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 16.3% | 5.5% | 2.4% | CSW 111% · DD 85% · CSL 78% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 29.6% | 20.6% | -9.3% | PBI 186% · TILE 161% · HNI 55% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -19.7% | 0.1% | -15.9% | EXLS 69% · BR 10% · G -13% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -51.5% | 24.2% | -17.6% | BCO 58% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 16 | 8.3% | -4.2% | -19.6% | DE 111% · TTC 23% · AGCO 5% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -30.8% | 33.9% | -25.0% | GEO 249% · CLH 168% · RSG 93% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | 8.7% | -12.8% | -25.4% | HURN 288% · FCN 27% · BAH 12% |
| Passenger Airlines ← | 11 | -2.5% | 51.6% | -32.4% | LTM 2856% · UAL 126% · DAL 113% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -20.4% | 50.8% | -34.4% | UBER 49% · CAR -34% · LYFT -65% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -19.0% | -9.0% | -39.3% | FDX 84% · EXPD 71% · CHRW 45% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 20.9% | -8.2% | -42.8% | ADP 46% · FA 28% · PAYX 6% |
| Airport Services | 4 | -52.8% | -59.3% | -85.9% | JOBY -44% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 56.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.2 |
| Rev LTM | 20,770 |
| Op Inc LTM | 821 |
| FCF LTM | 70 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -115 |
| CFO LTM | 1,588 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,052 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 21.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -16.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -5.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $6.45 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/01/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -20.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $5.72 | $5.42 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | 12.7% | 19.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 67.2% | 77.4% |
| Downside Capture | 537.66 | 300.64 |
| Upside Capture | 396.14 | 319.86 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 52.4% | 42.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.41 | 3.84 | 3.33 | 2.66 | 2.41 | 2.23 |
| Up Beta | 0.40 | 4.64 | 3.94 | 2.68 | 2.96 | 2.59 |
| Down Beta | 5.29 | 2.35 | 0.80 | 1.43 | 1.28 | 1.89 |
| Up Capture | 408% | 349% | 333% | 522% | 563% | 1348% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 26 | 62 | 116 | 349 |
| Down Capture | 274% | 412% | 365% | 224% | 168% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 23 | 37 | 62 | 129 | 387 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ULCC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULCC | 69.2% | 77.4% | 1.00 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 8.9% | 17.3% | 0.32 | 42.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.9% | 12.8% | 0.52 | 41.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.0% | 28.6% | -0.08 | 20.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.2% | 20.6% | 1.79 | -38.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 10.2% | 13.7% | 0.45 | 22.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -30.3% | 43.5% | -0.71 | 14.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ULCC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULCC | -16.5% | 71.8% | 0.05 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 11.4% | 17.6% | 0.48 | 47.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.2% | 17.1% | 0.53 | 43.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.2% | 19.0% | 0.68 | 7.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.2% | 19.5% | 0.35 | -5.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.9% | 18.9% | -0.06 | 35.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.8% | 51.6% | 0.28 | 23.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ULCC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULCC | -10.1% | 69.4% | 0.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.2% | 20.1% | 0.58 | 47.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 43.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.5% | 0.56 | 6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | -3.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 34.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.7% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 20.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/31/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2026 | 11.6% | ||
| 7/29/2026 | 4.3% | 28.3% | -4.2% |
| 5/5/2026 | 6.8% | 23.0% | 39.4% |
| 2/11/2026 | -7.9% | -11.7% | -43.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | 1.0% | 5.5% | 44.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | -15.8% | -19.1% | 36.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | 8.0% | 19.9% | 28.9% |
| 2/7/2025 | 15.5% | 5.3% | -25.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 8 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 15.1% | 30.5% |
| Median Negative | -11.2% | -14.4% | -18.4% |
| Max Positive | 20.8% | 53.0% | 57.9% |
| Max Negative | -19.8% | -21.6% | -43.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2026 | 11.6% | ||
| 7/29/2026 | 4.3% | 28.3% | -4.2% |
| 5/5/2026 | 6.8% | 23.0% | 39.4% |
| 2/11/2026 | -7.9% | -11.7% | -43.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | 1.0% | 5.5% | 44.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | -15.8% | -19.1% | 36.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | 8.0% | 19.9% | 28.9% |
| 2/7/2025 | 15.5% | 5.3% | -25.4% |
| 10/29/2024 | -14.4% | -21.6% | -23.4% |
| 8/8/2024 | 2.9% | 1.3% | 21.0% |
| 5/2/2024 | 1.7% | 3.1% | -6.3% |
| 2/6/2024 | 20.8% | 53.0% | 57.9% |
| 10/26/2023 | 9.1% | -15.9% | 5.2% |
| 8/1/2023 | -6.2% | -13.2% | -27.9% |
| 5/3/2023 | -19.8% | -16.1% | -4.2% |
| 2/8/2023 | -14.9% | -15.7% | -21.6% |
| 10/26/2022 | 16.5% | 28.2% | 32.1% |
| 7/27/2022 | 20.5% | 28.1% | 19.4% |
| 4/28/2022 | -0.1% | -4.1% | -1.6% |
| 2/7/2022 | 3.5% | 10.2% | -19.6% |
| 11/10/2021 | -2.3% | -3.5% | -17.2% |
| 8/4/2021 | 3.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% |
| 5/13/2021 | 2.4% | -4.9% | -4.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 12 | 10 |
| # Negative | 8 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 6.8% | 15.1% | 30.5% |
| Median Negative | -11.2% | -14.4% | -18.4% |
| Max Positive | 20.8% | 53.0% | 57.9% |
| Max Negative | -19.8% | -21.6% | -43.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/12/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 04/02/2021 | 424B4 |
| 03/31/2017 | 05/09/2017 | S-1/A |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/29/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Capacity growth | Reported | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | -1.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 7.0% for Q4 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 RASM growth | Reported | 20.0% | 0.0% | Same New | Guidance: 20.0% for Q3 2026 | |||
| Q4 2026 Average fuel cost per gallon | Reported | 4.75 | ||||||
| Q4 2026 Tax expense | Reported | 1.00 Mil | ||||||
| Q4 2026 Adjusted diluted earnings per share | Reported | -0.15 | -0.05 | 0.05 | -150.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.1 for Q4 2026 | |
| 2026 Pre-delivery deposits, net of refunds | Reported | -195.00 Mil | -182.50 Mil | -170.00 Mil | -3.9% | Raised | Guidance: -190.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Other capital expenditures | Reported | 170.00 Mil | 182.50 Mil | 195.00 Mil | -6.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 195.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted earnings (loss) per share | Reported | -0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | Higher New | Actual: -0.53 for Q2 2026 | ||
| Q3 2026 Capacity growth | Reported | 17.0% | 17.5% | 18.0% | 10.5% | Higher New | Actual: 7.0% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 RASM Growth | Reported | 20.0% | ||||||
| Q4 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted earnings (loss) per share | Reported | 0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | ||||
| Q4 2026 Capacity growth | Reported | 7.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Pre-delivery deposits, net of refunds | Reported | -210.00 Mil | -190.00 Mil | -170.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: -190.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Other capital expenditures | Reported | 170.00 Mil | 195.00 Mil | 220.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 195.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Capacity Growth | Reported | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | ||||
| Q2 2026 Liquidity | Reported | 900.00 Mil | 925.00 Mil | 950.00 Mil | ||||
| Q2 2026 EPS | Reported | -0.6 | -0.53 | -0.45 | ||||
| 2026 Pre-delivery deposits, net of refunds | Reported | -210.00 Mil | -190.00 Mil | -170.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: -190.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 170.00 Mil | 195.00 Mil | 220.00 Mil | -13.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 225.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted per share | Reported | -0.44 | -0.35 | -0.26 | Lower New | Guidance: 0.12 for Q4 2025 | ||
| Q1 2026 Capacity growth | Reported | -2.0% | -1.5% | -1.0% | -1.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.0% for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted per share | Reported | -0.4 | 0.05 | 0.5 | ||||
| 2026 Capacity growth | Reported | 10.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Pre-delivery deposits, net of refunds | Reported | -210.00 Mil | -190.00 Mil | -170.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Other capital expenditures | Reported | 200.00 Mil | 225.00 Mil | 250.00 Mil | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 10/27/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schuller, Steve | SVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 9092026 | 6.00 | 7,500 | 45,000 | 478,050 | Form |
| 2 | Clerc, Alexandre | SVP, Customers | Direct | Sell | 9092026 | 5.71 | 3,480 | 19,871 | 194,189 | Form |
| 3 | Mitchell, Mark Christopher | SVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 8.09 | 125,000 | 1,011,675 | 435,304 | Form |
| 4 | Diamond, Howard | EVP, Legal & Corporate Affairs | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 8.25 | 24,195 | 199,609 | 1,098,290 | Form |
| 5 | Wetzel, Josh A | VP & CAO | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 8.00 | 2,000 | 16,000 | 80,488 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schuller, Steve | SVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 9092026 | 6.00 | 7,500 | 45,000 | 478,050 | Form |
| 2 | Clerc, Alexandre | SVP, Customers | Direct | Sell | 9092026 | 5.71 | 3,480 | 19,871 | 194,189 | Form |
| 3 | Mitchell, Mark Christopher | SVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 8.09 | 125,000 | 1,011,675 | 435,304 | Form |
| 4 | Diamond, Howard | EVP, Legal & Corporate Affairs | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 8.25 | 24,195 | 199,609 | 1,098,290 | Form |
| 5 | Wetzel, Josh A | VP & CAO | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 8.00 | 2,000 | 16,000 | 80,488 | Form |
| 6 | Stedke, Trevor J | Sr. Vice President, Operations | Direct | Sell | 8062026 | 8.03 | 167,277 | Form | ||
| 7 | Clerc, Alexandre | SVP, Customers | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 8.17 | 3,068 | 25,078 | 306,427 | Form |
| 8 | Schuller, Steve | SVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 7.55 | 10,000 | 75,537 | 658,494 | Form |
| 9 | Clerc, Alexandre | SVP, Customers | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 7.13 | 7,142 | 50,923 | 289,168 | Form |
| 10 | Group, Holdings - Frontier Llc | Direct | Sell | 7132026 | 7.20 | 11,700,000 | 84,240,000 | 163,486,987 | Form | |
| 11 | Schuller, Steve | SVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 6092026 | 6.00 | 10,000 | 60,011 | 583,157 | Form |
| 12 | Clerc, Alexandre | SVP, Customers | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 5.93 | 5,060 | 30,006 | 282,854 | Form |
| 13 | Wetzel, Josh A | VP & CAO | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 4.75 | 13,500 | 64,133 | 57,297 | Form |
| 14 | Stedke, Trevor J | Sr. Vice President, Operations | Direct | Sell | 5112026 | 5.41 | 83,110 | 449,633 | 904,985 | Form |
| 15 | Schuller, Steve | SVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 6.00 | 5,000 | 30,000 | 569,556 | Form |
| 16 | Biffle, Barry | CEO | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 5.78 | 82,627 | 477,675 | 3,652,707 | Form |
| 17 | Schuller, Steve | SVP, Human Resources | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 6.00 | 5,000 | 30,000 | 463,872 | Form |
| 18 | Biffle, Barry | CEO | Direct | Sell | 12122025 | 6.01 | 17,373 | 104,422 | 4,294,351 | Form |
| 19 | Biffle, Barry | CEO | Direct | Sell | 12082025 | 5.54 | 100,000 | 554,290 | 4,056,494 | Form |
| 20 | Biffle, Barry | CEO | Direct | Sell | 12082025 | 5.05 | 44,813 | 226,225 | 4,199,274 | Form |
| 21 | Biffle, Barry | CEO | Direct | Sell | 12082025 | 5.04 | 55,187 | 277,900 | 4,414,454 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 31, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Passenger Airlines Resources |
| FlightGlobal |
| Airline Weekly |
| Skift Airlines |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.