Frontier (ULCC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $5.095 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Frontier (ULCC)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $5.095Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Air Travel, and Experience Economy. Themes include Low-Cost Air Travel, Digital Passenger Experience, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -128% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -153 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.1% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 443% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.2% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.3%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18% | ||
| Key risksULCC key risks include [1] persistent profitability challenges and ongoing cash burn, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Air Travel, and Experience Economy. Themes include Low-Cost Air Travel, Digital Passenger Experience, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -41%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -128% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -153 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.1% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 443% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.2% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.3%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18% |
| Key risksULCC key risks include [1] persistent profitability challenges and ongoing cash burn, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ULCC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points highlighting why Frontier (ULCC) stock moved by 3.8% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Positive Outlook for Q4 2025 Profitability. Despite reporting a net loss of $77 million for the third quarter of 2025, Frontier Airlines projected a return to profitability for the fourth quarter, with an estimated adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of between $0.04 and $0.20. This forward-looking positive guidance likely boosted investor confidence.
2. Reported Talks for Potential Spirit Airlines Merger. News emerged on December 16, 2025, that Frontier Group was reportedly in discussions for a potential merger with bankrupt Spirit Airlines, which caused ULCC stock to surge over 7% on that day.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ULCC Return | � | � | -24% | -47% | 30% | -28% | � |
| Peers Return | -22% | -3% | -34% | 6% | 53% | 4% | -15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ULCC Win Rate | � | 50% | 25% | 33% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 42% | 42% | 43% | 63% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ULCC Max Drawdown | � | � | -39% | -69% | -48% | -58% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -65% | -13% | -42% | -22% | -21% | -45% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LUV, JBLU, ALGT, DAL, UAL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ULCC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -85.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 578.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to RJET, AL, JBLU, CAKR, DAL
In The Past
Frontier's stock fell -85.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/1/2021. A -85.3% loss requires a 578.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Frontier Earnings Notes | |||
| Frontier Stock Surges 49%, With A 11-Day Winning Spree | Notification | ||
| Frontier Stock 9-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 33% | Notification | ||
| Is Frontier Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | Return | ||
| Frontier (ULCC) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Frontier (ULCC) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Frontier (ULCC) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Frontier (ULCC) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Frontier (ULCC) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Frontier (ULCC) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| 11-Day Rally Sends Frontier Stock Up 49% | December 9th, 2025 | ||
| Frontier Stock On Fire: Up 33% With 9-Day Winning Streak | December 5th, 2025 | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: GDOT, ULCC, HBI | Losers: PUBM, KODK, FLNC | August 13th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ULCC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Frontier
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 55.35 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.6 |
| Rev LTM | 18,323 |
| Op Inc LTM | 235 |
| FCF LTM | -121 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -195 |
| CFO LTM | 1,193 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,145 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -2.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.6 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/EBIT | 0.6 |
| P/E | 2.1 |
| P/CFO | 3.2 |
| Total Yield | -4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -4.8% |
| D/E | 1.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 26.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 48.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 23.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 26.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 9.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 35.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -53.6% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 1.0% | 5.5% | 44.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | -15.8% | -19.1% | 36.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | 8.0% | 19.9% | 28.9% |
| 2/7/2025 | 15.5% | 5.3% | -25.4% |
| 10/29/2024 | -14.4% | -21.6% | -23.4% |
| 8/8/2024 | 2.9% | 1.3% | 21.0% |
| 5/2/2024 | 1.7% | 3.1% | -6.3% |
| 2/6/2024 | 20.8% | 53.0% | 57.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| # Negative | 7 | 9 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 5.8% | 8.8% | 28.9% |
| Median Negative | -14.4% | -15.7% | -18.4% |
| Max Positive | 20.8% | 53.0% | 57.9% |
| Max Negative | -19.8% | -21.6% | -27.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |