Frontier (ULCC)


Market Price (9/20/2026): $5.825 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines

Frontier (ULCC)


Market Price (9/20/2026): $5.825
Market Cap: $1.3 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Passenger Airlines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Air Travel, and Experience Economy. Themes include Low-Cost Air Travel, Digital Passenger Experience, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -0.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67%

Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.36, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%

Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -408 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -9.8%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 320%

Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5%

Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 51%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -33%

Key risks
ULCC key risks include [1] persistent profitability challenges and ongoing cash burn, Show more.

0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Air Travel, and Experience Economy. Themes include Low-Cost Air Travel, Digital Passenger Experience, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -0.9%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -67%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 10.36, Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -408 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -9.8%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 320%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.8%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 51%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -33%
8 Key risks
ULCC key risks include [1] persistent profitability challenges and ongoing cash burn, Show more.

ULCC in ETFs

Weight = ULCC's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.00%
IWM0.01%
VB0.01%
IYT0.06%
IWO0.02%
VBK0.02%
DFAS0.01%
+5 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Updated on 9/9/2026

Frontier (ULCC) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Persistent Net Losses Despite Record Revenue Growth in Fiscal Q2 2026.

Despite reporting record revenue of $1.3 billion for fiscal Q2 2026, an increase of 38% year-over-year and significantly beating Wall Street estimates, Frontier still posted a net loss of $90 million, which widened from a $70 million loss in fiscal Q2 2025. This indicates ongoing challenges in achieving profitability even with strong top-line performance.

2. Significant Insider Selling Activity.

Investor confidence was likely impacted by notable insider selling, particularly a transaction by a large shareholder, Group Holdings - Frontier LLC, which sold 11,700,000 shares for $84 million on July 9, 2026. Additionally, the CFO, Mark Christopher Mitchell, sold 125,000 shares for over $1 million on August 5, 2026, contributing to overall insider selling of 12.25 million shares compared to 1.58 million shares bought in the last 100 trades.

Show more
Updated on 9/9/2026

Frontier (ULCC) stock has lost about 5% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Persistent Net Losses Despite Record Revenue Growth in Fiscal Q2 2026.

Despite reporting record revenue of $1.3 billion for fiscal Q2 2026, an increase of 38% year-over-year and significantly beating Wall Street estimates, Frontier still posted a net loss of $90 million, which widened from a $70 million loss in fiscal Q2 2025. This indicates ongoing challenges in achieving profitability even with strong top-line performance.

2. Significant Insider Selling Activity.

Investor confidence was likely impacted by notable insider selling, particularly a transaction by a large shareholder, Group Holdings - Frontier LLC, which sold 11,700,000 shares for $84 million on July 9, 2026. Additionally, the CFO, Mark Christopher Mitchell, sold 125,000 shares for over $1 million on August 5, 2026, contributing to overall insider selling of 12.25 million shares compared to 1.58 million shares bought in the last 100 trades.

3. Elevated Fuel Prices as a Cost Headwind.

Frontier's guidance for fiscal Q3 and Q4 2026 explicitly highlighted elevated fuel prices as a significant cost headwind, aligning with broader industry expectations for a sharp drop in airline profits for 2026 due to surging fuel costs.

4. Intense Pricing Pressure in Key Leisure Markets.

Aggressive capacity additions by ultra-low-cost carriers, including Frontier, following the exit of Spirit Airlines in certain leisure markets, led to significant fare drops. For instance, in fiscal Q2 2026, ATL-FLL outbound fares were down approximately 29.5% year-over-year, and ATL-MCO fares declined by 22.8% year-over-year, indicating intense competitive pricing pressure impacting revenue per available seat mile (RASM) in these key routes.

5. Cautious Analyst Sentiment Despite Earnings Beats.

As of September 9, 2026, analyst sentiment remained cautious, with a consensus "Reduce" rating and an average price target of $6.86 from 12 analysts, where six rated the stock Hold and three rated it Sell. Despite Frontier beating both EPS and revenue estimates in fiscal Q2 2026, the stock experienced a slip after the earnings release, suggesting investors are weighing the positive short-term performance against long-term profitability concerns and market oversupply risks.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -3.8% change in ULCC stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -11.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)53120269192026Change
Stock Price ($)6.055.82-3.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,8044,1549.2%
P/S Multiple0.40.3-11.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)229230-0.2%
Cumulative Contribution-3.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2026 to 9/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ULCC-3.8% 
Market (SPY)0.9%46.1%
Sector (XLI)-2.0%50.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 31.1% change in ULCC stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 18.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)22820269192026Change
Stock Price ($)4.445.8231.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,7244,15411.5%
P/S Multiple0.30.318.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)229230-0.6%
Cumulative Contribution31.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2026 to 9/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ULCC31.1% 
Market (SPY)11.6%42.2%
Sector (XLI)-3.9%43.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The 18.8% change in ULCC stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)83120259192026Change
Stock Price ($)4.905.8218.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,7784,15410.0%
P/S Multiple0.30.39.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)228230-0.9%
Cumulative Contribution18.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2025 to 9/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ULCC18.8% 
Market (SPY)19.4%39.5%
Sector (XLI)12.8%42.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The -7.3% change in ULCC stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)83120239192026Change
Stock Price ($)6.285.82-7.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)3,6274,15414.5%
P/S Multiple0.40.3-15.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)219230-4.6%
Cumulative Contribution-7.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

8/31/2023 to 9/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
ULCC-7.3% 
Market (SPY)75.6%42.4%
Sector (XLI)63.4%46.5%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
ULCC Return-28%-24%-47%30%-34%25%-69%
Peers Return-3%-34%6%53%1%0%6%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ULCC Win Rate56%25%33%42%50%44% 
Peers Win Rate42%42%43%63%52%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%44% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ULCC Max Drawdown--42%-77%-65%-70%-52% 
Peers Max Drawdown-38%-48%-47%-37%-49%-32% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LUV, JBLU, ALGT, DAL, UAL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/18/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventULCCS&P 500
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-31.9%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven46.8%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven31 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-65.7%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven191.6%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven467 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-40.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven69.2%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven78 days427 days

Compare to LUV, JBLU, ALGT, DAL, UAL

In The Past

Frontier's stock fell -31.9% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 46.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventULCCS&P 500
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-31.9%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven46.8%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven31 days18 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-65.7%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven191.6%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven467 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-40.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven69.2%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven78 days427 days

Compare to LUV, JBLU, ALGT, DAL, UAL

In The Past

Frontier's stock fell -31.9% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 46.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Frontier (ULCC)

Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) is a low-fare airline company that specializes in providing air transportation services for passengers. The company's core business revolves around offering affordable travel options, making air travel accessible across its extensive network.

Frontier primarily serves the market of air travelers within the United States and extends its reach to various international destinations across the Americas, connecting approximately 120 airports. Its operations are facilitated by a fleet of 110 Airbus single-aisle aircraft. Customers typically access Frontier's services through its direct distribution channels, including its official website, mobile application, and dedicated call center.

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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Frontier (ULCC):

  • It's like Spirit Airlines, known for its ultra-low fares and unbundled services.

  • The Ryanair or easyJet of the United States, offering very low base fares.

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  • Air Transportation Services: Frontier provides low-fare air travel for passengers to various domestic and international destinations.

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Major Customers of Frontier (ULCC)

Frontier, as a low-fare airline, primarily serves individual passengers rather than other businesses. Its major customer categories include:

  • Leisure Travelers: Individuals and families seeking affordable air travel for vacations, holidays, and personal trips. Given Frontier's low-cost model, this segment represents a significant portion of its customer base.
  • Price-Sensitive Travelers: This category encompasses passengers who prioritize the lowest possible fare when booking flights. This can include students, retirees, budget-conscious families, or anyone for whom cost is the primary determinant in their travel choices.
  • Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) Travelers: Passengers traveling specifically to visit family members or friends. This segment often seeks economical travel options, making Frontier a suitable choice for their needs.

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  • Airbus (EADSY)
  • Pratt & Whitney (RTX)

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James G. Dempsey, President and Chief Executive Officer
James G. Dempsey was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. in January 2026. He previously served as President since October 2023, with direct responsibility for Commercial, Customer Care, and Operations Research, Design, and Planning functions. Mr. Dempsey was also the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from December 2019, and Chief Financial Officer from May 2014. Before joining Frontier, he held senior management roles at Ryanair Holdings PLC, including Treasurer from July 2006 to April 2014 and Head of Investor Relations from 2003 to 2006. He also served in various management roles with PricewaterhouseCoopers from 2000 to 2003. Frontier's controlling shareholder, Indigo Partners, is a private equity fund, indicating Mr. Dempsey's extensive experience managing a private equity-backed company.

Mark C. Mitchell, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mark C. Mitchell has served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. since October 2023. Prior to this role, he was the Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations since February 2022 and Chief Accounting Officer since September 2015. Before joining Frontier in 2015, Mr. Mitchell held various leadership positions at Starwood Hotels and Resorts Worldwide, Inc. from February 2007 to September 2015, including Vice President, Accounting from 2013 to 2015, and Corporate Controller for Starwood Vacation Ownership, Inc. from 2007 to 2015.

Howard M. Diamond, Executive Vice President, Legal and Corporate Affairs
Howard M. Diamond has served as Executive Vice President, Legal and Corporate Affairs since February 2024. He previously held the position of Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary since July 2014. Before joining Frontier, Mr. Diamond served as Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of Thales USA, Inc. from January 2008 to July 2014. From 2003 to 2008, he was Chief Counsel at BAE Systems Land and Armaments. Mr. Diamond began his legal career as an officer in the U.S. Army JAG Corps from 1994 to 1997.

Alex Clerc, Senior Vice President, Customers
Alex Clerc became Frontier's Senior Vice President, Customers in January 2024. He previously worked as a Senior Expert with McKinsey & Company in their Transport and Travel Practice. Mr. Clerc's extensive experience in the aviation industry includes serving as Chief Operating Officer for Interjet Airlines in Mexico, Head of Operations Planning for Spirit Airlines, Chief Operating & Cost Officer for Volotea Airlines in Spain, and various senior roles in Tech Ops and Strategic Planning for Southwest Airlines.

Trevor J. Stedke, Senior Vice President, Operations
Trevor J. Stedke serves as Frontier Airlines' Senior Vice President of Operations. He previously held the position of Vice President of Technical Operations at Frontier. Before joining Frontier, he gained experience in leadership roles in airline operations and technical services.

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Here are the key risks to Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC):

  1. Fuel Price Volatility

    As an airline, Frontier is highly susceptible to fluctuations in jet fuel prices, which directly impact its operating costs and can erode its thin margins, a particular challenge for ultra-low-cost carriers. Recent increases in jet fuel prices have already led to revised financial outlooks and increased expenses for the company. Despite Frontier's fuel-efficient fleet, significant and sudden price spikes remain a substantial threat to its profitability.

  2. Intense Competition and Pricing Pressure

    Frontier operates in a highly competitive ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) market, facing pressure from rivals like Spirit Airlines and Allegiant Air, as well as larger carriers. This intense competition often leads to fare softness, aggressive pricing, and capacity surges in key leisure markets, which can negatively impact Frontier's yields and load factors. The industry's oversupply has reportedly contributed to pricing wars, further compressing margins for ULCCs.

  3. Persistent Profitability Issues and Rising Non-Fuel Operating Expenses

    Frontier has faced ongoing challenges in achieving and sustaining profitability, experiencing net losses in recent periods. A significant contributor to this is the struggle to control non-fuel operating expenses, measured by Cost per Available Seat Mile excluding fuel (CASM ex-fuel), which has seen increases. These rising costs, coupled with the inherent operational risks of the airline industry such as labor disputes, air traffic control inefficiencies, and the need to maintain high aircraft utilization, further pressure the company's financial performance and its ability to maintain its low-cost advantage.

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Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC), a low-fare airline company, operates in the passenger air transportation sector. Its addressable markets primarily include the low-cost airline markets in the United States and the broader Americas. The addressable market sizes for Frontier's main products and services are as follows: * United States Low-Cost Airline Market: The market size for low-cost airlines in the United States was estimated at approximately USD 95.17 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.0% during the forecast period. Another estimate places the US low-cost carrier market size at USD 51.81 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 69.35 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 2.6% from 2025-2035. * North America Low-Cost Airline Market: The North American low-cost airline market size was valued at USD 120.62 billion in 2024. This market is expected to reach approximately USD 175.02 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 4.2% from 2024 to 2031. North America held more than 40% of the global low-cost airline revenue in 2024. * Latin America Low-Cost Airline Market: The low-cost airline market in Latin America was approximately USD 15.08 billion in 2024. It is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.4% from 2024 to 2031.

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Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:

  1. Network and Capacity Expansion: Frontier is actively expanding its route network and increasing capacity. The airline has announced numerous new routes and increased departures from existing airports, including a 40% increase in departures from Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) this year versus 2024. In 2025, Frontier plans to launch 16 new routes across 21 airports in the U.S. and Caribbean. This expansion is also strategically positioned to capitalize on opportunities in the ultra-low-cost segment, potentially filling gaps left by competitors. For example, new routes will overlap with major markets previously served by Spirit Airlines.
  2. Enhanced Product Offerings and Ancillary Revenue Growth: Frontier is focused on boosting ancillary revenue through new product introductions and loyalty program enhancements. The airline recently launched "UpFront Plus," an upgraded seating option with extra legroom and a guaranteed empty middle seat in the first two rows. Furthermore, Frontier plans to introduce First Class seating on every flight by late 2025. Improvements to the "FRONTIER Miles" loyalty program, set to begin in 2025, will offer additional benefits such as free seat upgrades and the ability to redeem miles for baggage and seating bundles.
  3. Fleet Modernization and Fuel Efficiency: The continuous modernization of Frontier's fleet with more fuel-efficient Airbus A320neo family aircraft is a driver of both capacity growth and cost savings, indirectly supporting revenue growth through competitive pricing. The company has over 200 new Airbus planes on order, ensuring continued fleet expansion and efficiency improvements. As of December 31, 2023, 79% of its fleet comprised the more fuel-efficient A320neo family aircraft, the highest among major U.S. carriers.
  4. Strong Travel Demand and Revenue Management Initiatives: Frontier anticipates higher unit revenues driven by robust travel demand, moderating competitive capacity, and ongoing revenue management initiatives. The company has reported strong demand and fare trends extending into the spring booking period, which supports anticipated year-over-year revenue growth. Analysts also forecast an 18% revenue growth for fiscal 2026, supported by these factors.

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Share Repurchases

No information available regarding share repurchases made or authorized by Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) within the last 3-5 years.

Share Issuance

  • Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on April 1, 2021.
  • The company priced its IPO at $19 per share, issuing 30 million shares.
  • This IPO raised $570 million for the company.

Inbound Investments

  • Frontier Group Holdings was acquired in December 2013 by an investment fund managed by Indigo Denver Management Company, LLC, an affiliate of Indigo Partners, LLC.
  • Indigo Partners LLC remains a significant institutional shareholder as of September 30, 2025.

Outbound Investments

No information available regarding outbound investments made by Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) within the last 3-5 years. A merger agreement with Spirit Airlines was terminated.

Capital Expenditures

  • Frontier's capital expenditures increased significantly to $63 million in 2021 and peaked at $152 million in December 2022.
  • Capital expenditures subsequently decreased to $87 million in 2023 and $76 million in 2024, with $75 million in 2025.
  • The primary focus of capital expenditures is fleet expansion and modernization, with over 220 new Airbus planes on order to enhance fuel efficiency and support growth. The company also entered agreements to terminate 24 aircraft leases and defer deliveries of 69 A320neo jets previously expected between 2027 and 2030, a move aimed at trimming capacity and preserving cash.

Better Bets vs. Frontier (ULCC)

Peer Outperformance in Passenger Airlines

ULCC has trailed 80% of its 10 Passenger Airlines peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it are UAL, DAL and LUV. Passenger Airlines ranks 18th of 23 industries in Industrials by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Passenger Airlines constituents that ULCC has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
73%
of 11 industry peers · 12.1% return
3Y
55%
of 11 industry peers · 21.3% return
5Y
20%
of 10 industry peers · -60.9% return
Passenger Airlines peers with revenue growth within 4pp of ULCC's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
ULCC Frontier 4.7% -3.5x 12.1%21.3%-60.9%
UAL United Airlines 7.3% 10.1x 2.3%145.1%140.1% +201pp
DAL Delta Air Lines 7.0% 13.2x 34.7%111.7%102.3% +163pp
LUV Southwest Airlines 6.2% 23.9x 28.3%53.2%-10.0% +51pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Passenger Airlines is ULCC's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Construction & Engineering 31 7.0%102.1%183.7% FIX 2314% · CDNL 2275% · STRL 2261%
Marine Transportation 5 88.1%65.4%182.7% HOS 44163% · MATX 212% · SFL 183%
Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment 13 11.7%55.6%126.2% CAT 362% · ALSN 258% · WAB 234%
Aerospace & Defense 55 -6.5%66.1%74.4% ATI 1052% · FTAI 970% · HWM 653%
Rail Transportation 7 29.3%56.9%52.8% FSTR 147% · CSX 69% · UNP 58%
Trading Companies & Distributors 19 4.3%37.5%50.6% DXPE 574% · AIT 306% · URI 220%
Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components 72 9.1%49.1%44.9% CRS 1270% · PSIX 1091% · EROC 652%
Diversified Support Services 33 13.4%32.2%38.0% LIME 3498% · TH 465% · WLFC 368%
Passenger Ground Transportation 3 -28.4%41.4%30.5% UBER 77% · CAR 31% · LYFT -70%
Cargo Ground Transportation 16 34.4%-0.1%29.2% R 247% · XPO 246% · CVLG 193%
Electrical Components & Equipment 41 3.4%56.5%22.0% POWL 2339% · BE 1320% · VRT 950%
Building Products 33 -14.7%1.5%19.5% LMB 691% · GFF 386% · PPIH 296%
Industrial Conglomerates 17 7.9%7.2%8.2% RCMT 456% · CSW 141% · DD 74%
Agricultural & Farm Machinery 17 6.4%3.2%-2.4% BLBD 211% · DE 115% · GENC 56%
Environmental & Facilities Services 29 -11.1%22.8%-6.4% CECO 939% · ADUR 385% · NVRI 370%
Research & Consulting Services 13 -12.7%-24.6%-9.9% HURN 219% · CRAI 90% · GRNQ 69%
Data Processing & Outsourced Services 6 -33.4%-15.8%-25.2% EXLS 46% · BR 9% · G -24%
Passenger Airlines ← 11 3.2%13.1%-28.8% LTM 3169% · UAL 140% · SKYW 106%
Office Services & Supplies 9 7.4%15.2%-31.0% PBI 198% · TILE 148% · HNI 50%
Human Resource & Employment Services 22 6.5%-18.0%-36.6% BBSI 88% · ADP 53% · PAYX 25%
Air Freight & Logistics 12 -18.0%-20.7%-37.8% CHRW 98% · FDX 67% · EXPD 67%
Security & Alarm Services 10 -37.7%19.7%-45.5% CIX 160% · MG 123% · NL 67%
Airport Services 3 -75.1%-78.9%-58.8% JOBY -33% · ASLE -59% · UP -100%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Latest Trefis Analyses

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ULCCLUVJBLUALGTDALUALMedian
NameFrontier Southwes.JetBlue .Allegian.Delta Ai.United A. 
Mkt Price5.8240.984.3778.1679.62108.7159.57
Mkt Cap1.320.01.61.852.135.310.9
Rev LTM4,15430,0729,5032,89468,28762,90119,788
Op Inc LTM-4081,041-5592575,5164,256649
FCF LTM-185-455-1,1291173,4102,544-34
FCF 3Y Avg-320-822-1,371312,2821,948-144
CFO LTM-1152,530-1284208,1348,9131,475
CFO 3Y Avg-2141,765-833737,3388,0851,069

Growth & Margins

ULCCLUVJBLUALGTDALUALMedian
NameFrontier Southwes.JetBlue .Allegian.Delta Ai.United A. 
Rev Chg LTM10.0%9.5%4.0%12.2%10.3%8.5%9.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.7%6.2%-1.3%5.1%7.0%7.3%5.6%
Rev Chg Q37.7%16.4%14.5%36.9%18.7%16.0%17.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.2%4.1%3.7%9.6%4.8%4.0%4.4%
Op Inc Chg LTM-615.8%227.4%-305.1%60.1%-4.6%-21.2%-12.9%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-249.9%95.3%-142.2%12.1%3.1%-5.7%-1.3%
Op Mgn LTM-9.8%3.5%-5.9%8.9%8.1%6.8%5.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-4.4%1.2%-3.4%6.6%9.2%8.3%3.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.3%0.1%-1.6%0.5%-0.8%-1.6%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM-2.8%8.4%-1.3%14.5%11.9%14.2%10.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-5.7%6.2%-0.9%14.0%11.5%13.7%8.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-4.5%-1.5%-11.9%4.0%5.0%4.0%1.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-8.5%-3.0%-14.7%1.0%3.5%3.2%-1.0%

Valuation

ULCCLUVJBLUALGTDALUALMedian
NameFrontier Southwes.JetBlue .Allegian.Delta Ai.United A. 
Mkt Cap1.320.01.61.852.135.310.9
P/S0.30.70.20.60.80.60.6
P/Op Inc-3.319.2-2.97.09.48.37.6
P/EBIT-3.516.5-3.89.99.16.37.7
P/E-3.523.9-1.968.713.210.111.6
P/CFO-11.67.9-12.84.26.44.04.1
Total Yield-28.8%6.0%-53.9%1.5%8.5%9.9%3.7%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.8%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-31.1%-4.5%-72.2%0.2%5.5%5.6%-2.2%
D/E3.90.35.70.00.41.00.7
Net D/E3.20.24.5-0.60.30.50.4

Returns

ULCCLUVJBLUALGTDALUALMedian
NameFrontier Southwes.JetBlue .Allegian.Delta Ai.United A. 
1M Rtn1.0%3.2%-7.8%2.3%-1.8%-2.7%-0.4%
3M Rtn-19.4%-14.2%-23.1%-22.4%-5.2%-8.1%-16.8%
6M Rtn83.0%4.9%8.4%1.4%26.1%20.9%14.6%
12M Rtn12.1%28.3%-13.1%28.1%34.7%2.3%20.1%
3Y Rtn21.3%53.2%-4.6%3.6%111.7%145.1%37.2%
1M Excs Rtn-2.1%0.1%-10.1%0.9%-3.7%-5.4%-2.9%
3M Excs Rtn-21.4%-16.2%-25.1%-24.4%-7.2%-10.1%-18.8%
6M Excs Rtn67.8%-14.6%-9.5%-17.2%7.3%-0.3%-4.9%
12M Excs Rtn-8.5%14.0%-29.7%10.0%20.9%-12.9%0.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-67.2%-19.5%-82.4%-77.0%36.9%66.2%-43.4%

Comparison Analyses

null

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Provides air transportation for passengers3,7243,7753,5893,3262,060
Total3,7243,7753,5893,3262,060


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$5.82 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1.3 
First Trading Date04/01/2021 
Distance from 52W High-27.8% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$6.26$5.32
DMA Trendupdown
Distance from DMA-7.1%9.4%
 3M1YR
Volatility68.3%76.3%
Downside Capture418.62279.71
Upside Capture264.60247.64
Correlation (SPY)44.7%40.6%
ULCC Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta4.663.382.492.382.252.20
Up Beta5.674.313.132.432.952.62
Down Beta-0.54-0.64-0.120.961.101.83
Up Capture257%260%377%440%433%1003%
Bmk +ve Days10213268138427
Stock +ve Days6142757113344
Down Capture760%479%279%213%169%112%
Bmk -ve Days11213259113324
Stock -ve Days14273667130391

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ULCC
ULCC7.4%76.1%0.41-
Sector ETF (XLI)13.5%17.2%0.5743.3%
Equity (SPY)16.9%12.9%0.9440.4%
Gold (GLD)19.1%29.3%0.6018.9%
Commodities (DBC)46.3%20.6%1.73-34.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.9%13.6%0.1024.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-30.6%44.3%-0.7016.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ULCC
ULCC-16.7%71.1%0.04-
Sector ETF (XLI)12.4%17.6%0.5447.8%
Equity (SPY)12.9%17.2%0.5743.7%
Gold (GLD)19.1%18.8%0.836.0%
Commodities (DBC)11.2%19.5%0.45-4.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.1%18.8%-0.0535.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)12.5%52.5%0.4223.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with ULCC
ULCC-11.0%69.1%-0.02-
Sector ETF (XLI)13.1%20.1%0.5747.3%
Equity (SPY)15.1%18.0%0.7243.3%
Gold (GLD)12.1%16.4%0.616.2%
Commodities (DBC)8.3%18.1%0.37-2.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.4%20.7%0.1834.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)62.6%66.2%1.0220.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date8312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity24.7 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 81520266.6%
Average Daily Volume2.4 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest10.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity230.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares10.8%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 8/31/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/29/20264.3%28.3%-4.2%
5/5/20266.8%23.0%39.4%
2/11/2026-7.9%-11.7%-43.0%
11/5/20251.0%5.5%44.4%
8/5/2025-15.8%-19.1%36.4%
5/1/20258.0%19.9%28.9%
2/7/202515.5%5.3%-25.4%
10/29/2024-14.4%-21.6%-23.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141210
# Negative81012
Median Positive5.6%15.1%30.5%
Median Negative-11.2%-14.4%-18.4%
Max Positive20.8%53.0%57.9%
Max Negative-19.8%-21.6%-43.0%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/29/20264.3%28.3%-4.2%
5/5/20266.8%23.0%39.4%
2/11/2026-7.9%-11.7%-43.0%
11/5/20251.0%5.5%44.4%
8/5/2025-15.8%-19.1%36.4%
5/1/20258.0%19.9%28.9%
2/7/202515.5%5.3%-25.4%
10/29/2024-14.4%-21.6%-23.4%
8/8/20242.9%1.3%21.0%
5/2/20241.7%3.1%-6.3%
2/6/202420.8%53.0%57.9%
10/26/20239.1%-15.9%5.2%
8/1/2023-6.2%-13.2%-27.9%
5/3/2023-19.8%-16.1%-4.2%
2/8/2023-14.9%-15.7%-21.6%
10/26/202216.5%28.2%32.1%
7/27/202220.5%28.1%19.4%
4/28/2022-0.1%-4.1%-1.6%
2/7/20223.5%10.2%-19.6%
11/10/2021-2.3%-3.5%-17.2%
8/4/20213.6%7.5%8.2%
5/13/20212.4%-4.9%-4.0%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive141210
# Negative81012
Median Positive5.6%15.1%30.5%
Median Negative-11.2%-14.4%-18.4%
Max Positive20.8%53.0%57.9%
Max Negative-19.8%-21.6%-43.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/29/202610-Q
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/18/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/18/202510-K
09/30/202410/29/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/20/202410-K
09/30/202310/26/202310-Q
06/30/202308/01/202310-Q
03/31/202305/03/202310-Q
12/31/202202/22/202310-K
09/30/202210/26/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/29/202610-Q
03/31/202605/05/202610-Q
12/31/202502/18/202610-K
09/30/202511/05/202510-Q
06/30/202508/05/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/18/202510-K
09/30/202410/29/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/20/202410-K
09/30/202310/26/202310-Q
06/30/202308/01/202310-Q
03/31/202305/03/202310-Q
12/31/202202/22/202310-K
09/30/202210/26/202210-Q
06/30/202207/27/202210-Q
03/31/202205/12/202210-Q
12/31/202102/23/202210-K
09/30/202111/10/202110-Q
06/30/202108/04/202110-Q
03/31/202105/13/202110-Q
12/31/202004/02/2021424B4
03/31/201705/09/2017S-1/A

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 9/15/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q3 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted earnings (loss) per shareReported-0.100.1  Higher NewActual: -0.53 for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Capacity growthReported17.0%17.5%18.0% 10.5%Higher NewActual: 7.0% for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 RASM GrowthReported 20.0%    
Q4 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted earnings (loss) per shareReported00.10.2   
Q4 2026 Capacity growthReported 7.0%    
2026 Pre-delivery deposits, net of refundsReported-210.00 Mil-190.00 Mil-170.00 Mil0.0% AffirmedGuidance: -190.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Other capital expendituresReported170.00 Mil195.00 Mil220.00 Mil0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 195.00 Mil for 2026


Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Capacity GrowthReported6.0%7.0%8.0%   
Q2 2026 LiquidityReported900.00 Mil925.00 Mil950.00 Mil   
Q2 2026 EPSReported-0.6-0.53-0.45   
2026 Pre-delivery deposits, net of refundsReported-210.00 Mil-190.00 Mil-170.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: -190.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported170.00 Mil195.00 Mil220.00 Mil-13.3% LoweredGuidance: 225.00 Mil for 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted per shareReported-0.44-0.35-0.26  Lower NewGuidance: 0.12 for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Capacity growthReported-2.0%-1.5%-1.0% -1.5%Lower NewGuidance: 0.0% for Q4 2025
2026 Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted per shareReported-0.40.050.5   
2026 Capacity growthReported 10.0%    
2026 Pre-delivery deposits, net of refundsReported-210.00 Mil-190.00 Mil-170.00 Mil   
2026 Other capital expendituresReported200.00 Mil225.00 Mil250.00 Mil   

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2025 Capacity growthReported 0.0%  4.5%Higher NewActual: -4.5% for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted earnings per shareReported0.040.120.2-135.3% Higher NewActual: -0.34 for Q3 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 9/9/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Schuller, SteveSVP, Human ResourcesDirectSell90920266.007,50045,000478,050Form
2Clerc, AlexandreSVP, CustomersDirectSell90920265.713,48019,871194,189Form
3Mitchell, Mark ChristopherSVP & CFODirectSell80620268.09125,0001,011,675435,304Form
4Diamond, HowardEVP, Legal & Corporate AffairsDirectSell80620268.2524,195199,6091,098,290Form
5Wetzel, Josh AVP & CAODirectSell80620268.002,00016,00080,488Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Schuller, SteveSVP, Human ResourcesDirectSell90920266.007,50045,000478,050Form
2Clerc, AlexandreSVP, CustomersDirectSell90920265.713,48019,871194,189Form
3Mitchell, Mark ChristopherSVP & CFODirectSell80620268.09125,0001,011,675435,304Form
4Diamond, HowardEVP, Legal & Corporate AffairsDirectSell80620268.2524,195199,6091,098,290Form
5Wetzel, Josh AVP & CAODirectSell80620268.002,00016,00080,488Form
6Stedke, Trevor JSr. Vice President, OperationsDirectSell80620268.03167,277  Form
7Clerc, AlexandreSVP, CustomersDirectSell80420268.173,06825,078306,427Form
8Schuller, SteveSVP, Human ResourcesDirectSell80420267.5510,00075,537658,494Form
9Clerc, AlexandreSVP, CustomersDirectSell80420267.137,14250,923289,168Form
10Group, Holdings - Frontier Llc DirectSell71320267.2011,700,00084,240,000163,486,987Form
11Schuller, SteveSVP, Human ResourcesDirectSell60920266.0010,00060,011583,157Form
12Clerc, AlexandreSVP, CustomersDirectSell60420265.935,06030,006282,854Form
13Wetzel, Josh AVP & CAODirectSell52120264.7513,50064,13357,297Form
14Stedke, Trevor JSr. Vice President, OperationsDirectSell51120265.4183,110449,633904,985Form
15Schuller, SteveSVP, Human ResourcesDirectSell20920266.005,00030,000569,556Form
16Biffle, BarryCEODirectSell121220255.7882,627477,6753,652,707Form
17Schuller, SteveSVP, Human ResourcesDirectSell121220256.005,00030,000463,872Form
18Biffle, BarryCEODirectSell121220256.0117,373104,4224,294,351Form
19Biffle, BarryCEODirectSell120820255.54100,000554,2904,056,494Form
20Biffle, BarryCEODirectSell120820255.0544,813226,2254,199,274Form
21Biffle, BarryCEODirectSell120820255.0455,187277,9004,414,454Form
22Clerc, AlexandreSVP, CustomersDirectSell91120255.333,80020,26014,006Form
23Diamond, HowardEVP, Legal & Corporate AffairsDirectSell90920255.5035,401194,706408,072Form
24Diamond, HowardEVP, Legal & Corporate AffairsDirectSell90420255.8031,503182,717635,657Form
25Schuller, SteveSVP, Human ResourcesDirectSell90420256.0010,00060,000385,980Form
26Genise, Robert JDirectSell90420255.5230,000165,5221,823,688Form
27Diamond, HowardEVP, Legal & Corporate AffairsDirectSell90420255.6726,306149,273800,666Form
28Biffle, BarryCEODirectSell90420255.63423,8822,385,7354,502,640Form
29Biffle, BarryCEOFamily TrustSell90420255.6348,949  Form
30Biffle, BarryCEOSpouseSell90420255.58158,975  Form
31Schroeter, RobertSVP, Chief Commercial OfficerDirectSell90320254.7521,055100,087180,228Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Sep 20, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Ancient Art, L.P.$11.0 Mil2.4%16TRIM -12.9%13F
Silver Point Capital L.P.$12.9 Mil1.0%16TRIM -25.9%13F
Par Capital Management Inc$7.5 Mil0.2%45Hold13F
Active Manager
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Silver Point Capital L.P.$12.9 Mil1.0%16TRIM -25.9%13F
Ancient Art, L.P.$11.0 Mil2.4%16TRIM -12.9%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Silver Point Capital L.P.$12.9 Mil1.0%16TRIM -25.9%13F
Ancient Art, L.P.$11.0 Mil2.4%16TRIM -12.9%13F
Par Capital Management Inc$7.5 Mil0.2%45Hold13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 9/19/2026