Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Air Travel, and Experience Economy. Themes include Low-Cost Air Travel, Digital Passenger Experience, Show more.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -135%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -153 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.1%
1  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 443%
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.2%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.3%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18%
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Air Travel, and Experience Economy. Themes include Low-Cost Air Travel, Digital Passenger Experience, Show more.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -29%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -135%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -153 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.1%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 443%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.2%
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.3%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -18%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ULCC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock movement of Frontier Airlines (ULCC) by -0.2% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, can be attributed to a combination of factors, primarily concerning its financial performance, competitive environment, and analyst sentiment.

1. Mixed Q3 2025 Financial Results: On November 5, 2025, Frontier reported a third-quarter net loss of $77 million, or $(0.34) per share, which was better than the expected loss of $(0.37) per share. However, total operating revenue for Q3 2025 was $886 million, falling short of the consensus estimate of $901.89 million and down from $935 million in the same quarter of the prior year. The airline's capacity was 4% lower year-over-year. This mixed performance likely contributed to volatility in the stock.

2. Continued Net Loss Streak into Q3 2025: Frontier Airlines continued its streak of net losses into the third quarter of 2025, having not had a profitable quarter in a year as of November 5, 2025. This sustained period of unprofitability, despite some improvements in certain metrics, could have put downward pressure on the stock.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ULCC Return---24%-47%30%-33%-65%
Peers Return-14%-1%-20%5%28%0%-9%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ULCC Win Rate-50%25%33%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate33%40%31%33%38%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ULCC Max Drawdown---39%-69%-48%-58% 
Peers Max Drawdown-52%-11%-29%-15%-8%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RJET, AL, JBLU, CAKR, DAL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventULCCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-85.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven578.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to RJET, AL, JBLU, CAKR, DAL


In The Past

Frontier's stock fell -85.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/1/2021. A -85.3% loss requires a 578.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Frontier (ULCC)

Better Bets than Frontier (ULCC)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ULCC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Frontier

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ULCCRJETALJBLUCAKRDALMedian
NameFrontier Republic.Air LeaseJetBlue .Cambodia.Delta Ai. 
Mkt Price4.8919.0163.844.71-67.4919.01
Mkt Cap1.1-7.11.7-43.84.4
Rev LTM3,7291,3532,9089,095-62,9203,729
Op Inc LTM-153258601-222-6,072258
FCF LTM-519138-1,985-1,354-3,074-519
FCF 3Y Avg-347-123-2,513-1,156-1,835-347
CFO LTM-3472221,751-160-7,976222
CFO 3Y Avg-2282451,723153-7,253245

Growth & Margins

ULCCRJETALJBLUCAKRDALMedian
NameFrontier Republic.Air LeaseJetBlue .Cambodia.Delta Ai. 
Rev Chg LTM1.8%3.7%6.2%-2.5%-4.3%3.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.5%-0.1%8.0%2.3%-10.8%7.5%
Rev Chg Q-5.2%30.9%5.1%-1.8%-6.4%5.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.3%7.4%1.2%-0.5%-1.6%1.2%
Op Mgn LTM-4.1%19.1%20.7%-2.4%-9.7%9.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-0.8%12.2%23.7%-1.0%-9.5%9.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.6%2.1%-0.5%-0.9%-0.3%-0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM-9.3%16.4%60.2%-1.8%-12.7%12.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-6.2%18.1%63.0%1.5%-12.1%12.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-13.9%10.2%-68.3%-14.9%-4.9%-13.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-9.4%-9.2%-92.3%-12.4%-3.0%-9.4%

Valuation

ULCCRJETALJBLUCAKRDALMedian
NameFrontier Republic.Air LeaseJetBlue .Cambodia.Delta Ai. 
Mkt Cap1.1-7.11.7-43.84.4
P/S0.3-2.40.2-0.60.4
P/EBIT-8.0-5.3-28.0-5.6-1.3
P/E-7.4-7.0-3.8-8.01.6
P/CFO-2.9-4.1-11.2-4.60.6
Total Yield-13.5%-15.7%-26.2%-13.2%-0.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%-1.4%0.0%-0.6%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-32.5%--48.4%-60.1%-5.7%-40.5%
D/E5.0-2.85.3-0.63.9
Net D/E4.4-2.83.8-0.53.3

Returns

ULCCRJETALJBLUCAKRDALMedian
NameFrontier Republic.Air LeaseJetBlue .Cambodia.Delta Ai. 
1M Rtn32.2%--0.0%12.7%-15.4%14.0%
3M Rtn-12.4%-0.1%-13.6%-10.5%-6.2%
6M Rtn23.5%-12.9%-6.4%-38.7%18.2%
12M Rtn-15.7%-28.7%-22.3%-9.2%-3.3%
3Y Rtn-62.5%-72.7%-40.7%-94.3%16.0%
1M Excs Rtn32.2%-0.0%12.7%-15.4%14.1%
3M Excs Rtn-10.9%--5.0%-12.8%-6.5%-8.0%
6M Excs Rtn8.8%--1.8%-21.1%-24.0%3.5%
12M Excs Rtn-29.7%-13.9%-34.7%--6.5%-18.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-134.9%-7.1%-111.4%-32.0%-52.1%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity28,461,372
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.5%
Average Daily Volume3,723,861
Days-to-Cover Short Interest7.64
Basic Shares Quantity228,174,036
Short % of Basic Shares12.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024218202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022512202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021