Steven Madden (SHOO)
Market Price (10/19/2026): $45.3 | Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Footwear
Steven Madden (SHOO)
Market Price (10/19/2026): $45.3Market Cap: $3.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Footwear
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 6.9% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Creator Economy Monetization. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27% | Key risksSHOO key risks include [1] its significant sourcing concentration in tariff-sensitive regions like China and [2] its heavy dependence on a disrupted wholesale channel impacted by department store failures. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, FCF Yield is 6.9% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Social Media & Creator Economy. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, and Creator Economy Monetization. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -33%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -27% |
| Key risksSHOO key risks include [1] its significant sourcing concentration in tariff-sensitive regions like China and [2] its heavy dependence on a disrupted wholesale channel impacted by department store failures. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Steven Madden (SHOO) stock has gained about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat and Raised Full-Year Guidance. Steven Madden announced robust results for its fiscal second quarter ended June 30, 2026, on July 30, 2026. The company reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.44, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.33 by 33.33%. Consolidated revenue also exceeded expectations, growing 19.1% year-over-year to $665.9 million against an anticipated $635.39 million. This strong performance, driven by the Kurt Geiger acquisition and growth across direct-to-consumer (up 30.6%) and wholesale businesses (up 13%), prompted Steven Madden to raise its fiscal 2026 revenue growth guidance to 11%-13% (previously 10%-12%) and adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $2.05-$2.15 (previously $2.00-$2.10).
2. Significant Gross Margin Expansion. A key driver of the company's strong fiscal Q2 2026 results was a notable improvement in gross margin. The gross margin expanded to 46.5% in fiscal Q2 2026, a substantial increase from 40.4% in the same period of the prior year. This enhancement was attributed to higher average selling prices, reduced promotional activity, and a favorable impact from lower tariffs.
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Steven Madden (SHOO) stock has gained about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat and Raised Full-Year Guidance. Steven Madden announced robust results for its fiscal second quarter ended June 30, 2026, on July 30, 2026. The company reported adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.44, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.33 by 33.33%. Consolidated revenue also exceeded expectations, growing 19.1% year-over-year to $665.9 million against an anticipated $635.39 million. This strong performance, driven by the Kurt Geiger acquisition and growth across direct-to-consumer (up 30.6%) and wholesale businesses (up 13%), prompted Steven Madden to raise its fiscal 2026 revenue growth guidance to 11%-13% (previously 10%-12%) and adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $2.05-$2.15 (previously $2.00-$2.10).
2. Significant Gross Margin Expansion. A key driver of the company's strong fiscal Q2 2026 results was a notable improvement in gross margin. The gross margin expanded to 46.5% in fiscal Q2 2026, a substantial increase from 40.4% in the same period of the prior year. This enhancement was attributed to higher average selling prices, reduced promotional activity, and a favorable impact from lower tariffs.
3. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Revisions. Following the strong fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report and the upward revision of fiscal 2026 guidance, market analysts responded positively. Analysts subsequently boosted price targets for Steven Madden, citing the company's margin recovery and strong growth outlook. While the consensus rating among analysts was "Hold," 29% recommended a "Buy" rating, and the consensus price target reached $48.08, reflecting a generally optimistic view of the company's future performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 8.1% change in SHOO stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 81.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.89 | 45.27 | 8.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,634 | 2,741 | 4.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.9% | 5.2% | 81.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.2 | 22.5 | -42.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 71 | 71 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 8.1% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SHOO | 8.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.2% | 52.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.1% | 41.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 34.8% change in SHOO stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 196.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.59 | 45.27 | 34.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,534 | 2,741 | 8.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.8% | 5.2% | 196.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 53.4 | 22.5 | -57.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 71 | 71 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 34.8% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SHOO | 34.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.7% | 52.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 3.4% | 54.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 38.1% change in SHOO stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.79 | 45.27 | 38.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,320 | 2,741 | 18.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.9% | 5.2% | 33.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.5 | 22.5 | -11.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 71 | 71 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 38.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SHOO | 38.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.5% | 48.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -5.6% | 50.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 52.5% change in SHOO stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 69.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.69 | 45.27 | 52.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,936 | 2,741 | 41.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.5% | 5.2% | -38.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.3 | 22.5 | 69.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 74 | 71 | 3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 52.5% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SHOO | 52.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.7% | 48.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 42.9% | 53.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SHOO Return | 33% | -30% | 35% | 3% | 1% | 13% | 48% |
| Peers Return | 55% | -7% | 14% | 21% | -5% | 1% | 91% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SHOO Win Rate | 67% | 33% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 47% | 55% | 53% | 47% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SHOO Max Drawdown | -16% | -42% | -18% | -16% | -54% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -40% | -41% | -38% | -53% | -38% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CAL, GCO, TPR, CPRI, DECK. See SHOO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SHOO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 209 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -11.4% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 22 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -41.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 609 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -52.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 299 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 553 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -16.0% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Steven Madden's stock fell -49.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 99.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | SHOO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 209 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -41.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 609 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -52.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 299 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -29.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 553 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -29.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -43.9% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.2% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 684 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Steven Madden's stock fell -49.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 99.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Steven Madden (SHOO)
Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) is a global fashion company specializing in the design, sourcing, marketing, and sale of a diverse range of footwear, accessories, and apparel for women, men, and children. The company operates a multi-faceted business model that includes both its extensive portfolio of fashion-forward brands and private label offerings. Its core products encompass a wide variety of footwear, from casual to dress styles, alongside a broad selection of accessories such as handbags, small leather goods, belts, and soft accessories, as well as apparel.
The company serves its customers through several primary channels. Its wholesale segments distribute products under popular brands like Steve Madden, Dolce Vita, Betsey Johnson, GREATS, Blondo, Superga, and Anne Klein, along with private labels, to a wide array of retailers including department stores, mass merchants, online, and specialty stores. Steven Madden also maintains a significant direct-to-consumer presence through its owned network of over 200 brick-and-mortar retail stores (including Steve Madden full-price and outlet stores, and Superga stores) and dedicated e-commerce websites like SteveMadden.com. Furthermore, the company generates revenue through licensing its well-known trademarks and acting as a buying agent for private label footwear for various retailers.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Steven Madden:
- Steven Madden is like a fashion-focused VF Corp (owner of Vans, Timberland) but specializing in a diverse portfolio of trendy footwear and accessory brands.
- Think of Steven Madden as the H&M or Zara for footwear and accessories, but it's a house of popular, fast-fashion brands that sells both to other retailers and through its own stores.
- Steven Madden is a more accessible version of a multi-brand fashion house like Tapestry (Coach, Kate Spade), focusing on trendy footwear and accessories.
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- Footwear: The company designs, sources, markets, and sells fashion-forward branded and private label footwear for women, men, and children.
- Accessories & Apparel: Steven Madden offers a range of handbags, apparel, small leather goods, belts, soft accessories, and other fashion items under various brands and private labels.
- Retail Sales: The company operates full-price and outlet retail stores, as well as digital e-commerce websites, to sell its branded products directly to consumers.
- Trademark Licensing: Steven Madden licenses its major trademarks, such as Steve Madden, Madden Girl, and Betsey Johnson, to other companies.
- Buying Agent Services: The company acts as a buying agent for private label footwear products for national chains, specialty retailers, and value-priced retailers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) serves a diverse customer base through both business-to-business (B2B) and direct-to-consumer (B2C) channels. Given the detailed description of its extensive wholesale operations for both branded and private label products across various retail formats, a significant portion of its sales are made to other companies.
The major business-to-business (B2B) customer categories for Steven Madden include:
- Department stores
- Mass merchants
- Off-price retailers
- Online retailers (other companies that sell online)
- Specialty stores
- Independent stores
- National chains (as clients for its First Cost segment)
- Value-priced retailers (as clients for its First Cost segment)
The background information provided does not list specific names of public customer companies (e.g., "Macy's," "Target") along with their stock symbols, but rather categorizes the types of retailers it serves.
In addition to these business customers, Steven Madden also sells directly to individual consumers (B2C) through its Direct-to-Consumer segment. This includes its network of owned and operated Steve Madden and Superga full-price retail stores, Steve Madden outlet stores, Steve Madden shop-in-shops, and e-commerce websites (e.g., SteveMadden.com, DolceVita.com, betseyjohnson.com, Blondo.com, GREATS.com, and Superga-USA.com).
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Edward R. Rosenfeld, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Rosenfeld has served as Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer since August 2008 and has been a director of Steven Madden since February 2008. He joined the executive management team in May 2005. Mr. Rosenfeld possesses more than two decades of experience focused on the retail, apparel, and footwear industries. His background in finance and analytical skills were gained through his years as a Vice President with Peter J. Solomon Company, an investment banking boutique, where he specialized in mergers and acquisitions in the retail, apparel, and footwear sectors. He also serves as a director and member of the Audit & Risk Management Committee of PVH Corp.
Zine Mazouzi, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Operations
Mr. Mazouzi has served as Chief Financial Officer since January 1, 2021, and Executive Vice President of Operations since January 1, 2024. Prior to these roles, he was Chief Accounting Officer and Senior Vice President—Finance and Operations from January 2019. Mr. Mazouzi has over 20 years of experience in the footwear industry. Before joining Steven Madden, he held various senior positions at Sears Holdings, including Chief Financial Officer of Sears Footwear Group (2016-2017), Head of the Footwear Group (2017-2018), and Head of the Footwear, Home and Jewelry Groups (2018). Earlier in his career, he served as Chief Financial Officer at Nine West Group from 2014 to 2015.
Amelia Newton Varela, President
Ms. Varela has been President of Steven Madden since September 2015 and a director since 2016. Her previous roles include Executive Vice President of Wholesale (since April 2008) and Executive Vice President of Wholesale Footwear (November 2004 to April 2008). She began her career with the company in 1998 as an Account Executive for Steve Madden Women's Wholesale Division.
Steven Madden, Founder and Creative & Design Chief
Mr. Madden founded Steven Madden, Ltd. in 1990 by selling shoes out of the trunk of his car with an initial investment of $1,100. He was the principal owner and creative force during the company's formative years (1990–1993). In 2002, he was convicted of stock manipulation, money laundering, and securities fraud, leading to his resignation as CEO and from the board of directors. After his release from prison in 2005, he resumed his role as Creative and Design Chief, continuing to guide the company's creative strategy.
Lisa Keith, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary
Ms. Keith was appointed as the Company's General Counsel in November 2019. She joined Steve Madden's Legal Department in May 2017 and previously served as Vice President and Deputy General Counsel.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Steven Madden's business, trading under the symbol SHOO, stem from the dynamic nature of the fashion industry, global supply chain dependencies, and intense market competition.
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Reliance on Rapidly Changing Fashion Trends and Consumer Preferences: As a "fashion-forward" company, Steven Madden's success is highly dependent on its ability to anticipate, identify, and respond quickly to evolving consumer tastes and fashion trends. A failure to accurately predict these trends can lead to excess inventory, increased markdowns, and decreased sales, significantly impacting financial performance.
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Supply Chain Disruptions and Geopolitical Risks, Including Tariffs: Steven Madden heavily relies on foreign manufacturing, particularly from regions like China. This reliance exposes the company to risks such as supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and changes in international trade policies, including the imposition of tariffs. Tariff uncertainty has been identified as a material risk, impacting profitability and necessitating costly restructuring efforts for supply chain diversification.
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Highly Competitive Industry and Wholesale Channel Concentration: The fashion industry is characterized by low barriers to entry and intense competition from both established players and new entrants, which can lead to pricing pressures and a loss of market share. Furthermore, a substantial portion of Steven Madden's revenue is generated through its wholesale channels. Challenges in this segment, such as conservative ordering by wholesale customers or broader retail industry restructuring, can directly impact the company's sales and profitability.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
For Steven Madden (SHOO), the addressable markets for their main products and services are as follows:
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Footwear:
- The global footwear market size was estimated at USD 476.83 billion in 2025.
- The United States footwear market size was valued at USD 97.16 billion in 2025.
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Handbags:
- The global handbag market size is expected to increase from US$ 67.9 billion in 2025.
- The U.S. handbag market size was estimated at USD 14,262.8 million (USD 14.26 billion) in 2024.
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Apparel:
- The global apparel market is valued at USD 1.84 trillion in 2025.
- The United States apparel market is valued at USD 365.70 billion in 2025.
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Share Repurchases
- The Board of Directors reinstated the repurchase of common stock on February 24, 2021.
- In May 2023, the Board approved an increase in the share repurchase authorization by approximately $189,900, bringing the total authorization to $250,000.
- Steven Madden repurchased shares for approximately $90,153 in 2024 and did not repurchase any shares in the open market in 2025.
Share Issuance
- The company's shares outstanding (weighted average) decreased from $78.4 million in 2021 to $70.9 million in 2025, indicating a net reduction in shares.
- Steven Madden spent $13.5 million in 2025 on shares acquired through the net settlement of employees' stock awards.
Outbound Investments
- In May 2025, Steven Madden acquired the Kurt Geiger business, which was financed by a senior secured credit facility.
- The company acquired the ATM Collection in November 2024, expanding its offerings in elevated basics apparel.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the full year 2025 were $42.6 million.
- Capital expenditures for the full year 2024 were $25.9 million.
Peer Outperformance in Footwear
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -19.9% | 82.6% | 91.0% | CVSA 247% · PRDO 235% · LRN 148% |
| Homebuilding | 18 | -8.6% | 40.7% | 41.3% | GRBK 181% · PHM 141% · TOL 135% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | 15.0% | 42.6% | 15.9% | ASO 49% · DKS 31% · FIVE 16% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 11.2% | 50.2% | 13.8% | RCL 234% · MAR 154% · HLT 143% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | -5.6% | 52.0% | 1.3% | SGI 44% · MHK -36% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -18.8% | 10.0% | -1.9% | HD -1% · LOW -2% · FND -64% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -13.1% | 10.3% | -8.4% | MUSA 233% · PAG 129% · ORLY 110% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -13.0% | 23.6% | -13.2% | HRB 134% · FTDR 84% · SCI 42% |
| Footwear ← | 9 | 72.1% | 45.8% | -14.0% | DECK 40% · SHOO 18% · CROX -14% |
| Distributors | 4 | -9.2% | -15.4% | -15.9% | ARMK 122% · GPC 22% · LKQ -54% |
| Restaurants | 36 | -5.2% | -5.8% | -18.6% | EAT 322% · CAKE 200% · TXRH 102% |
| Household Appliances | 17 | -2.4% | 27.5% | -35.8% | |
| Apparel Retail | 26 | 5.1% | 7.7% | -38.4% | ANF 290% · TJX 145% · ROST 128% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 10.8% | -5.8% | -41.3% | LTH 149% · OSW 117% · PLNT -37% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 16.2% | 54.2% | -42.4% | BBY 1% · GME -42% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -18.3% | -17.0% | -44.9% | GOLF 78% · HAS 30% · MAT -14% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 39 | -12.1% | -13.5% | -46.4% | MOD 1144% · GTX 253% · BWA 54% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | 1.3% | 15.1% | -46.9% | RL 256% · TPR 254% · KTB 74% |
| Broadline Retail | 13 | 9.6% | 29.3% | -48.2% | EBAY 77% · AMZN 45% · OLLI 40% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -11.3% | -25.9% | -50.9% | MCRI 86% · BYD 10% · RRR 9% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -73.4% | -53.6% | -77.7% | GM 54% · TSLA 22% · F 9% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 17 | -34.0% | -32.7% | -77.8% | ULTA 46% · TSCO -11% · BBWI -66% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -27.6% | -33.4% | -78.3% | GRMN 98% · SONO -47% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Steven Madden Earnings Notes | 12/27/2025 | |
| Would You Still Hold Steven Madden Stock If It Fell 30%? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than SHOO Stock: Pay Less Than Steven Madden To Get More From DECK | 08/20/2025 | |
| SHOO Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| Day 6 of Loss Streak for Steven Madden Stock with -24% Return (vs. -31% YTD) [3/5/2025] | 03/05/2025 | |
| Steven Madden (SHOO) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 02/17/2025 | |
| Steven Madden (SHOO) Net Income Comparison | 02/16/2025 | |
| Steven Madden (SHOO) Operating Income Comparison | 02/15/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Better Bet Than Steven Madden Stock: Pay Less To Get More From DECK | 08/20/2025 |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 41.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.5 |
| Rev LTM | 3,147 |
| Op Inc LTM | 154 |
| FCF LTM | 154 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 160 |
| CFO LTM | 211 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 226 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 27.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.5 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 11.0 |
| P/EBIT | 10.8 |
| P/E | 11.8 |
| P/CFO | 10.8 |
| Total Yield | 8.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 15.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -62.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale Footwear | 1,035 | 1,059 | 1,048 | 1,195 | 1,022 |
| Direct-to- Consumer | 846 | 550 | 506 | 522 | 488 |
| Wholesale Accessories/Apparel | 641 | 663 | 417 | 395 | 344 |
| Licensing | 13 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| First Cost | 1 | 2 | |||
| Corporate costs | 0 | ||||
| Total | 2,534 | 2,283 | 1,982 | 2,122 | 1,866 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale Footwear | 155 | 191 | 205 | 265 | 217 |
| Wholesale Accessories/Apparel | 57 | 90 | 61 | 30 | 27 |
| Licensing | 11 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Direct-to- Consumer | -34 | 31 | 30 | 68 | 75 |
| Corporate costs | -107 | -97 | -92 | -89 | -85 |
| First Cost | 1 | 2 | |||
| Total | 81 | 225 | 213 | 282 | 244 |
| $ Mil | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale Footwear | 813 | 868 | 775 | 784 | 611 |
| Direct-to- Consumer | 196 | 276 | 113 | 122 | 118 |
| Wholesale Accessories/Apparel | 112 | 119 | 150 | 139 | 236 |
| First Cost | 11 | 9 | 28 | 12 | 8 |
| Licensing | 6 | 6 | 6 | ||
| Total | 1,138 | 1,279 | 1,073 | 1,057 | 973 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $45.27 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/13/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -7.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $44.58 | $41.05 |
| DMA Trend | up | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 1.6% | 10.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 37.2% | 41.5% |
| Downside Capture | 163.53 | 159.62 |
| Upside Capture | 165.93 | 165.85 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 54.8% | 47.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.88 | 1.70 | 1.87 | 1.61 | 1.57 | 1.31 |
| Up Beta | -0.43 | 1.78 | 2.21 | 1.90 | 1.72 | 1.29 |
| Down Beta | 6.62 | 4.82 | 2.00 | 0.97 | 1.47 | 1.11 |
| Up Capture | 186% | 119% | 194% | 203% | 218% | 268% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 21 | 33 | 59 | 123 | 367 |
| Down Capture | 129% | 161% | 154% | 151% | 130% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 31 | 67 | 128 | 379 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SHOO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOO | 30.9% | 41.5% | 0.75 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -3.6% | 19.2% | -0.32 | 49.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 12.7% | 0.86 | 46.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | -1.4% | 29.4% | -0.05 | 16.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 52.4% | 20.7% | 1.92 | -32.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 13.7% | 0.09 | 25.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.5% | 43.6% | -0.59 | 25.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SHOO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOO | 4.1% | 39.6% | 0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.1% | 24.1% | 0.17 | 56.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 53.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.4% | 18.9% | 0.79 | 7.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.9% | 19.5% | 0.39 | 3.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.6% | 18.8% | -0.02 | 43.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.6% | 51.8% | 0.34 | 22.8% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SHOO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOO | 13.2% | 43.3% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.0% | 22.2% | 0.49 | 51.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 47.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 2.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 13.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 41.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.1% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 13.7% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | 10.2% | 13.1% | 3.0% |
| 5/6/2026 | 6.2% | 2.3% | 17.9% |
| 2/25/2026 | -4.1% | -4.0% | -8.5% |
| 11/5/2025 | 13.6% | 18.4% | 33.6% |
| 7/30/2025 | -9.3% | -4.6% | 11.6% |
| 5/7/2025 | 16.3% | 32.9% | 22.6% |
| 2/26/2025 | -8.0% | -22.3% | -27.2% |
| 11/7/2024 | 3.1% | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 5.2% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -4.1% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 16.3% | 32.9% | 49.9% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -22.3% | -27.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | 10.2% | 13.1% | 3.0% |
| 5/6/2026 | 6.2% | 2.3% | 17.9% |
| 2/25/2026 | -4.1% | -4.0% | -8.5% |
| 11/5/2025 | 13.6% | 18.4% | 33.6% |
| 7/30/2025 | -9.3% | -4.6% | 11.6% |
| 5/7/2025 | 16.3% | 32.9% | 22.6% |
| 2/26/2025 | -8.0% | -22.3% | -27.2% |
| 11/7/2024 | 3.1% | 0.1% | 1.2% |
| 7/31/2024 | 2.0% | -4.1% | -0.7% |
| 5/1/2024 | -2.4% | 0.5% | 9.0% |
| 2/28/2024 | -0.8% | -1.4% | -3.6% |
| 11/8/2023 | -0.1% | 5.4% | 14.4% |
| 8/2/2023 | 3.4% | 7.2% | 5.1% |
| 5/9/2023 | 2.2% | -0.2% | 2.9% |
| 2/23/2023 | 6.3% | 8.2% | 4.3% |
| 11/2/2022 | -0.8% | 5.1% | 16.3% |
| 7/27/2022 | -3.0% | -4.2% | -5.3% |
| 4/27/2022 | 1.3% | -1.1% | -14.9% |
| 2/25/2022 | 1.2% | -2.1% | -5.2% |
| 11/3/2021 | 8.5% | 12.7% | 4.7% |
| 7/28/2021 | 0.9% | 0.0% | -4.2% |
| 4/28/2021 | -5.8% | 0.0% | -2.3% |
| 2/25/2021 | -0.7% | -5.6% | -2.7% |
| 10/27/2020 | 9.5% | 4.7% | 49.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 5.2% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -4.1% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 16.3% | 32.9% | 49.9% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -22.3% | -27.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/04/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/08/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/02/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/09/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/04/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/01/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/01/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/16/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 06/08/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/02/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/04/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/8/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 11.0% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 11.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Diluted EPS | Reported | 2.55 | 2.6 | 2.65 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.6 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | Reported | 2.05 | 2.1 | 2.15 | 2.4% | Raised | Guidance: 2.05 for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 10.0% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 10.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 2.55 | 2.6 | 2.65 | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 2 | 2.05 | 2.1 | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/5/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Varela, Amelia | President | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 48.59 | 15,000 | 728,800 | 9,456,527 | Form |
| 2 | Reed, Arian Simone | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 48.76 | 1,250 | 60,950 | 399,638 | Form | |
| 3 | Klipper, Mitchell S | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 48.54 | 3,918 | 190,186 | 1,580,275 | Form | |
| 4 | Ferrara, Al | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 48.26 | 3,918 | 189,083 | 1,264,272 | Form | |
| 5 | Davis, Peter Allan | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 48.30 | 525 | 25,360 | 247,611 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Varela, Amelia | President | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 48.59 | 15,000 | 728,800 | 9,456,527 | Form |
| 2 | Reed, Arian Simone | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 48.76 | 1,250 | 60,950 | 399,638 | Form | |
| 3 | Klipper, Mitchell S | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 48.54 | 3,918 | 190,186 | 1,580,275 | Form | |
| 4 | Ferrara, Al | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 48.26 | 3,918 | 189,083 | 1,264,272 | Form | |
| 5 | Davis, Peter Allan | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 48.30 | 525 | 25,360 | 247,611 | Form | |
| 6 | Migliorini, Peter | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 45.30 | 4,000 | 181,200 | 762,401 | Form | |
| 7 | Reed, Arian Simone | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 45.38 | 1,100 | 49,912 | 428,612 | Form | |
| 8 | Ciglar, Christina | Chief Product Officer | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 44.74 | 5,147 | 230,276 | 1,574,844 | Form |
| 9 | Reed, Arian Simone | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 43.82 | 475 | 20,815 | 462,130 | Form | |
| 10 | Varela, Amelia | President | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 43.45 | 10,000 | 434,450 | 9,107,462 | Form |
| 11 | Davis, Peter Allan | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 41.98 | 3,030 | 127,209 | 237,247 | Form | |
| 12 | Reed, Arian Simone | Direct | Sell | 5212026 | 39.97 | 648 | 25,899 | 322,018 | Form | |
| 13 | Reed, Arian Simone | Direct | Sell | 3122026 | 33.44 | 3,600 | 120,374 | 291,072 | Form | |
| 14 | Reed, Arian Simone | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 44.80 | 2,712 | 121,498 | 551,264 | Form | |
| 15 | Varela, Amelia | President | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 42.59 | 15,000 | 638,838 | 8,280,064 | Form |
| 16 | Mazouzi, Zine | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 42.21 | 12,473 | 526,477 | 2,744,027 | Form |
| 17 | Keith, Lisa | EVP, Gen. Counsel, Secretary | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 42.05 | 2,500 | 105,133 | 1,091,785 | Form |
| 18 | Migliorini, Peter | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 42.14 | 3,000 | 126,426 | 752,909 | Form | |
| 19 | Davis, Peter Allan | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 39.30 | 660 | 25,941 | 224,707 | Form | |
| 20 | Davis, Peter Allan | Direct | Sell | 9122025 | 30.65 | 795 | 24,368 | 195,465 | Form | |
| 21 | Davis, Peter Allan | Direct | Sell | 8042025 | 24.88 | 2,312 | 57,511 | 178,404 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 19, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Footwear Resources |
| Footwear News |
| Sneaker News |
| Sole Collector |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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