Shake Shack (SHAK)


Market Price (8/29/2026): $69.91 | Market Cap: $2.8 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Shake Shack (SHAK)


Market Price (8/29/2026): $69.91
Market Cap: $2.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -73%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -74%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 42x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 71x

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1%

Key risks
SHAK key risks include [1] significant margin pressure from its heavy reliance on volatile beef prices and [2] difficulty driving consistent traffic growth due to its premium pricing model and market saturation in key urban areas.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Vegan & Alternative Foods. Themes include Experiential Retail, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -73%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -74%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 42x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 71x
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1%
6 Key risks
SHAK key risks include [1] significant margin pressure from its heavy reliance on volatile beef prices and [2] difficulty driving consistent traffic growth due to its premium pricing model and market saturation in key urban areas.

SHAK in ETFs

Weight = SHAK's share of each fund

VTI0.00%
ITOT0.00%
IWM0.09%
IJR0.16%
VB0.03%
SLYG0.34%
IJT0.33%
IWO0.18%
+8 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 8/5/2026

Shake Shack (SHAK) stock has lost about 30% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Shake Shack significantly lowered its financial outlook for fiscal Q2 2026 and the full fiscal year 2026.

On June 2, 2026, the company updated its guidance, revising down its total revenue forecast for fiscal Q2 (ended July 1, 2026) to a range of $415 million to $420 million from the prior $424 million to $428 million. Similarly, same-shack sales growth guidance for fiscal Q2 was reduced to 2.5% to 3.0% from an earlier range of 3.0% to 5.0%. The restaurant-level profit margin guidance for the same period also saw a reduction, moving from 24.0%-24.5% to 22.0%-23.0%. This downward revision signaled weaker near-term performance expectations to the market.

2. Increased operating costs, particularly beef prices, exerted pressure on profit margins.

Shake Shack faced "record high beef prices, higher fuel and distribution costs" during the period, which negatively impacted its restaurant-level profit margins. For fiscal Q2 2026 (ended July 1, 2026), the restaurant-level profit margin was 23.0% of Shack sales, a decline from 23.9% in the prior year. The company's management chose not to fully offset these escalating costs through pricing, aiming to preserve its value proposition for the long term, which directly squeezed short-term profitability.

Show more
Updated on 8/5/2026

Shake Shack (SHAK) stock has lost about 30% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Shake Shack significantly lowered its financial outlook for fiscal Q2 2026 and the full fiscal year 2026.

On June 2, 2026, the company updated its guidance, revising down its total revenue forecast for fiscal Q2 (ended July 1, 2026) to a range of $415 million to $420 million from the prior $424 million to $428 million. Similarly, same-shack sales growth guidance for fiscal Q2 was reduced to 2.5% to 3.0% from an earlier range of 3.0% to 5.0%. The restaurant-level profit margin guidance for the same period also saw a reduction, moving from 24.0%-24.5% to 22.0%-23.0%. This downward revision signaled weaker near-term performance expectations to the market.

2. Increased operating costs, particularly beef prices, exerted pressure on profit margins.

Shake Shack faced "record high beef prices, higher fuel and distribution costs" during the period, which negatively impacted its restaurant-level profit margins. For fiscal Q2 2026 (ended July 1, 2026), the restaurant-level profit margin was 23.0% of Shack sales, a decline from 23.9% in the prior year. The company's management chose not to fully offset these escalating costs through pricing, aiming to preserve its value proposition for the long term, which directly squeezed short-term profitability.

3. Multiple analyst downgrades and significant reductions in price targets followed the lowered guidance.

Following the revised fiscal Q2 and full-year 2026 guidance in early June, several sell-side analysts adjusted their ratings and substantially cut their price targets for Shake Shack. For example, Raymond James lowered its rating from "strong-buy" to "outperform" and reduced its price target from $125.00 to $85.00. Morgan Stanley also reaffirmed an "equal weight" rating but cut its target from $115.00 to $76.00. The consensus EPS estimate for fiscal year 2026 subsequently fell by 11% from $1.28 to $1.14 per share, reflecting diminished confidence in the company's growth and margin recovery trajectory.

4. Broader macroeconomic uncertainty and a challenging competitive landscape contributed to a cautious outlook.

Shake Shack's CEO attributed the updated guidance in June to the "current macroeconomic uncertainty, competitive landscape, and related impacts." This environment, characterized by overall inflation, supply-chain disruptions, and potential softening of consumer discretionary spending within the fast-casual dining sector, added to investor concerns regarding the company's ability to maintain its growth and profitability.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -31.8% change in SHAK stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)43020268282026Change
Stock Price ($)102.4669.89-31.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,4451,5527.4%
Net Income Margin (%)3.2%2.6%-19.1%
P/E Multiple90.271.0-21.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)4040-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution-31.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 8/28/2026
ReturnCorrelation
SHAK-31.8% 
Market (SPY)7.1%8.1%
Sector (XLY)-1.0%18.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The -21.1% change in SHAK stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -17.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)13120268282026Change
Stock Price ($)88.5769.89-21.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,3731,55213.0%
Net Income Margin (%)3.1%2.6%-17.5%
P/E Multiple83.771.0-15.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)4040-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution-21.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 8/28/2026
ReturnCorrelation
SHAK-21.1% 
Market (SPY)11.5%29.5%
Sector (XLY)-3.1%33.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The -41.9% change in SHAK stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -70.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120258282026Change
Stock Price ($)120.3469.89-41.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,3231,55217.3%
Net Income Margin (%)1.5%2.6%70.2%
P/E Multiple243.471.0-70.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)4040-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution-41.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 8/28/2026
ReturnCorrelation
SHAK-41.9% 
Market (SPY)22.7%30.3%
Sector (XLY)6.5%34.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -10.0% change in SHAK stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/28/2026 was primarily driven by a -43.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120238282026Change
Stock Price ($)77.6669.89-10.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)9501,55263.3%
P/S Multiple3.21.8-43.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)3940-2.5%
Cumulative Contribution-10.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2023 to 8/28/2026
ReturnCorrelation
SHAK-10.0% 
Market (SPY)74.0%43.7%
Sector (XLY)38.0%45.1%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
SHAK Return-15%-42%78%75%-37%-13%-17%
Peers Return19%-3%35%-4%-13%18%52%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%13%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SHAK Win Rate33%25%42%58%25%62% 
Peers Win Rate55%43%60%45%48%57% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SHAK Max Drawdown-47%-52%-33%-28%-46%-50% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-26%-19%-29%-30%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MCD, CMG, QSR, DRI, BLMN. See SHAK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/28/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventSHAKS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-31.8%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven46.6%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven34 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-30.1%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven43.1%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven108 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-48.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven95.9%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven370 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-57.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven133.9%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven238 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-33.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven50.8%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven123 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-12.9%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven14.9%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven52 days6 days

Compare to MCD, CMG, QSR, DRI, BLMN

In The Past

Shake Shack's stock fell -31.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 46.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventSHAKS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-31.8%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven46.6%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven34 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-30.1%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven43.1%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven108 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-48.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven95.9%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven370 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-57.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven133.9%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven238 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-33.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven50.8%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven123 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-43.0%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven75.3%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven845 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-30.5%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven43.8%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven695 days15 days

Compare to MCD, CMG, QSR, DRI, BLMN

In The Past

Shake Shack's stock fell -31.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 46.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Shake Shack (SHAK)

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Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) is a prominent fast-casual restaurant company that owns, operates, and licenses its branded Shake Shack restaurants, known as "Shacks." The company primarily focuses on offering an elevated dining experience compared to traditional fast-food chains, featuring a curated menu and a modern, inviting atmosphere. Its business model includes both managing company-owned locations and expanding its global footprint through domestic and international licensing agreements.

The core offerings at Shake Shack restaurants revolve around popular American comfort food, including gourmet hamburgers, hot dogs, and chicken sandwiches, which are a cornerstone of its appeal. The menu is rounded out with signature crinkle-cut fries, a variety of shakes and frozen custard desserts, and a selection of beverages such as beer and wine. Shake Shack serves a broad customer base in both the United States and various international markets, catering to diners seeking a premium, yet casual, meal experience.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Analogies for Shake Shack (SHAK):
  • A Chipotle for burgers
  • The Starbucks of burgers

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Hamburgers: Classic beef patties served on buns with various toppings.
  • Hot Dogs: Premium sausages typically served in buns with condiments.
  • Chicken: A selection of chicken-based menu items, often including sandwiches.
  • Crinkle Cut Fries: Distinctively shaped potato fries, known for their crispy texture.
  • Shakes: Hand-spun, creamy milkshakes available in various flavors.
  • Frozen Custard: A dense, rich frozen dessert similar to ice cream.
  • Beer: Alcoholic malt beverages offered to complement meals.
  • Wine: Alcoholic grape beverages available for purchase.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Shake Shack (SHAK) primarily sells food and beverage products directly to individual consumers through its restaurants.

The company serves the following categories of customers:

  1. Casual Diners & Food Enthusiasts: Individuals and families who prioritize high-quality ingredients, a modern dining experience, and a step above traditional fast-food options. This segment values Shake Shack's fresh offerings and premium positioning within the fast-casual sector.
  2. Urban & Suburban Professionals/Residents: Customers working or residing in the metropolitan areas, bustling commercial districts, and affluent suburbs where Shake Shack locations are typically found. These individuals seek convenient, reliable, and quality meal solutions for lunch, dinner, or snacks during their daily routines.
  3. Tourists & Visitors: People traveling to cities and popular destinations where Shake Shack operates. Many are drawn to the brand's reputation, especially given its iconic New York City origins, seeking a popular local experience or a trusted, quality meal while exploring.
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AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Martin's Famous Pastry Shoppe, Inc. (Private Company)

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Rob Lynch, Chief Executive Officer

Rob Lynch has served as Shake Shack's Chief Executive Officer since May 2024. Prior to joining Shake Shack, Mr. Lynch was the President and Chief Executive Officer of Papa John's International, Inc., where he oversaw significant global sales growth. Before his time at Papa John's, he held the position of President at Arby's, leading operations, marketing, culinary, development, and digital transformation initiatives.

Katherine Fogertey, Chief Financial Officer

Katherine Fogertey was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Shake Shack, effective June 14, 2021. Before her role at Shake Shack, Ms. Fogertey spent over 15 years at Goldman Sachs in New York City. At Goldman Sachs, she served as a lead analyst covering the restaurant sector, with a focus on technology's impact on profitability and market share. She also held a position as a lead analyst for Derivatives and ETF research, overseeing single-stock options and global ETFs.

Stephanie Sentell, Chief Operations Officer

Stephanie Sentell serves as the Chief Operations Officer of Shake Shack. Details about her specific background and prior roles beyond Shake Shack are not explicitly detailed in the provided search results.

Michael Kark, President of Global Licensing

Michael Kark was promoted to President of Global Licensing, effective February 22, 2024. He joined Shake Shack in 2012 and has been a pivotal figure in the company's international expansion, growing its licensed shacks from four to over 225. Before Shake Shack, Mr. Kark gained extensive experience in the fast-food industry, working for Chipotle Mexican Grill for approximately seven years in roles such as Team Leader (Area Director) and General Manager.

Andrew McCaughan, Chief Development Officer

Andrew McCaughan holds the title of Chief Development Officer at Shake Shack. He joined the company in 2010. In his role, he is responsible for the overall growth of Shake Shack, leading the real estate strategy, design, construction, and facilities functions.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Shake Shack's business include:

  1. Rising Commodity Costs: Shake Shack's profitability is significantly exposed to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly beef, which constitutes a substantial portion of its food costs. Persistent beef inflation directly pressures the cost of food and paper, impacting restaurant-level profit margins.
  2. Labor Costs and Retention Challenges: The company faces ongoing challenges with rising labor costs and the difficulty of recruiting and retaining skilled team members in a competitive restaurant industry. These pressures can impact operational efficiency and overall margins.
  3. Intense Competition and Economic Sensitivity: Shake Shack operates in a highly competitive fast-casual dining market. Its premium positioning makes it vulnerable to shifts in consumer spending during economic downturns and intense competition from both established chains and emerging concepts, which can hinder traffic growth, especially in established markets.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Addressable Markets for Shake Shack's Main Products and Services

Shake Shack operates within the broader Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) and Fast Casual restaurant markets, offering a menu that includes hamburgers, chicken, shakes, and frozen custard. The addressable markets for these key product categories are substantial, both in the United States and globally.

Overall Restaurant Market

  • Global Quick Service Restaurants (QSR) Market: The global quick service restaurant market was valued at approximately USD 1.06 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach about USD 2.55 trillion by 2035, demonstrating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.2% during this period. Another estimate indicates the global QSR market was valued at USD 1.04 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to grow to USD 2.5 trillion by 2035, with a CAGR of 9.16%.
  • U.S. Quick Service Restaurants (QSR) Market: The U.S. QSR market was valued at USD 1,064.44 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 2,462.71 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 8.75%. North America held a dominant share of the global QSR market, accounting for approximately 34.65% in 2025.
  • Global Fast Casual Restaurant Market: This market was valued at USD 190.51 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 451.04 billion by 2031, with a CAGR of 11.56%. Other estimates place the global fast casual market at USD 144.8 billion in 2024, with a projection to reach USD 230 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.4%.
  • U.S. Fast Casual Restaurant Market: North America's fast casual restaurant market accounted for 33.32% of the global market share and was valued at USD 63.48 billion in 2023. The U.S. fast casual segment is forecast to reach $84.1 billion in total annual sales in 2025.

Main Products and Services

  • Hamburgers:
    • Global: The global burger restaurant market was approximately $647.4 billion in 2024. The global Hamburger Market is estimated to be valued at USD 759.45 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1,168.48 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 7.9%.
    • U.S.: The Burger Restaurants market in the U.S. was valued at $173.6 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.3% over the five years to 2025. In 2026, the market size is estimated at $177.7 billion. The hamburgers segment held the largest market share of 38.96% in the U.S. fast food and quick services restaurants market in 2024.
  • Chicken:
    • Global: The global fried chicken market was worth around USD 44.56 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to approximately USD 78.92 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 5.33%. Another report indicates the fried chicken market size will grow from $100.11 billion in 2025 to $107.19 billion in 2026, at a CAGR of 7.1%, and is projected to reach $139.66 billion in 2030.
    • U.S. (Fast-Food Chicken Industry): The fast-food chicken industry in the U.S. has grown at an annual rate of 7.2%, reaching $61.1 billion in revenue.
  • Frozen Custard (part of Frozen Desserts):
    • Global: The global frozen dessert market was valued at USD 138.43 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 199.56 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.15%. Other estimates show the global frozen dessert market at USD 136.87 billion in 2025, forecasted to expand to approximately USD 206.53 billion by 2035.
    • U.S.: The U.S. frozen dessert market size was valued at USD 35.42 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 53.09 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 4.6%. The U.S. frozen desserts market was estimated to be worth approximately USD 33.14 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 49.50 billion by 2032.
  • Shakes (Packaged Milkshakes market as an indicator of demand):
    • Global: The global packaged milkshakes market size was valued at USD 369.04 million in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 689.96 million by 2033, with a CAGR of 7.2%.
  • Hot Dogs and Crinkle Cut Fries: Specific market sizes for these products as standalone categories were not explicitly identified in the provided search results. They are generally encompassed within the broader Quick Service Restaurant and Fast Casual dining market segments.
  • Beer and Wine (in Restaurants): Specific market size data for beer and wine sales within the fast-casual or quick-service restaurant industry was not available from the search results.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

  1. Aggressive Unit Expansion: Shake Shack plans significant expansion of its restaurant footprint, both domestically and internationally. The company has increased its long-term total addressable market forecast to over 1,500 company-operated Shacks and expects to open 55-60 new company-operated Shacks and 40-45 new licensed Shacks in fiscal year 2026. This unit-led growth is a central component of its strategy.
  2. Same-Shack Sales Growth through Culinary Innovation and Strategic Marketing: The company aims to increase sales at existing locations by continually introducing new menu items and leveraging targeted marketing campaigns. Initiatives such as the "Big Shack" burger and value-focused in-app promotions (e.g., "$1, $3, $5" offers) have been successful in driving traffic and engagement. Shake Shack also plans increased media investments to support brand visibility.
  3. Enhanced Digital Engagement and Loyalty Program Launch: Shake Shack is focusing on growing its digital channels and improving customer engagement. The success of its in-app promotions has led to significant increases in app downloads, and the company plans to launch a loyalty program in the coming year. These digital initiatives are designed to boost customer frequency and strengthen brand connection.
  4. Strategic International Licensed Expansion: International growth, primarily through licensed locations, is another driver of revenue. Shake Shack is being selective with its international partners, developing new, smaller formats to offer greater real estate flexibility, and tailoring menu items to suit specific regional preferences. This approach supports global expansion with minimal capital investment.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)

Share Repurchases

  • Shake Shack reported $0 in share repurchases for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025.
  • The company's repurchase of stock for the trailing twelve months ended December 2025 was also $0 million.

Share Issuance

  • As of December 31, 2025, Shake Shack had 40,254,281 shares of Class A common stock issued and outstanding, an increase from 40,068,068 shares as of December 25, 2024.
  • As of December 31, 2025, there were 2,434,789 shares of Class B common stock issued and outstanding, a slight decrease from 2,455,713 shares as of December 25, 2024.
  • The company maintains the authority to issue "blank check" preferred stock, which could increase the number of outstanding shares.

Capital Expenditures

  • Shake Shack's capital expenditures in Q4 2025 were a "meaningful cash outflow" of approximately $59.15 million, reflecting ongoing investment in store openings and equipment.
  • In fiscal year 2025, the average investment per new Shack was about $2.3 million, or $1.9 million net of landlord allowances, with the average net build cost for new Shacks reduced to under $2 million, representing a 20% reduction.
  • The primary focus of capital expenditures is an aggressive expansion strategy, with 45 new company-operated Shacks opened in 2025 and a plan to build another 55-60 Shacks in 2026. The company is also investing in digital channels, kiosks, personalized offers, and loyalty programs to enhance guest engagement.

Better Bets vs. Shake Shack (SHAK)

Peer Outperformance in Restaurants

SHAK has trailed 55% of its 33 Restaurants peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it are EAT, TXRH and QSR. Restaurants ranks 9th of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return.
Share of Restaurants constituents that SHAK has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
16%
of 43 industry peers · -34.0% return
3Y
59%
of 41 industry peers · 0.0% return
5Y
45%
of 33 industry peers · -20.6% return
Restaurants peers with revenue growth within 4pp of SHAK's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
SHAK Shake Shack 16.1% 71.0x -34.0%0.0%-20.6%
EAT Brinker International 12.2% 20.0x 48.0%608.1%320.1% +341pp
TXRH Texas Roadhouse 12.8% 31.6x 17.4%98.2%128.0% +149pp
QSR Restaurant Brands International 12.9% 21.4x 28.7%26.3%44.3% +65pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Restaurants is SHAK's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services 14 -12.8%104.0%71.8% LINC 301% · CVSA 258% · PRDO 221%
Homebuilding 18 -3.5%28.2%42.0% GRBK 188% · PHM 146% · TOL 139%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 22 17.1%47.1%13.7% RCL 245% · MAR 169% · HLT 156%
Automotive Retail 18 -16.3%0.9%10.3% MUSA 230% · PAG 174% · ORLY 124%
Specialty Stores 7 -6.6%25.8%7.4% DKS 14% · FIVE 13% · SIG 10%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -17.6%-2.4%5.2% HD 16% · LOW 11% · HVT 5%
Distributors 4 -7.5%-24.4%-7.6% ARMK 144% · GPC 28% · LKQ -44%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -10.0%25.6%-9.3% HRB 140% · FTDR 88% · SCI 44%
Restaurants ← 34 -7.7%-10.4%-14.2% EAT 320% · CAKE 170% · RAVE 152%
Footwear 9 52.3%36.8%-16.3% WEYS 164% · DECK 24% · SHOO 20%
Home Furnishings 4 -6.4%21.1%-16.6% SGI 49% · LZB 3% · MHK -36%
Casinos & Gaming 20 -10.0%-28.0%-30.4% MCRI 104% · RSI 76% · RRR 53%
Leisure Products 13 -4.1%-20.5%-31.2% GOLF 80% · HAS 17% · MCFT -8%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 26 -1.7%25.2%-37.1% TPR 235% · RL 231% · ELA 229%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 38 -12.5%-8.0%-38.6% MOD 1291% · GTX 293% · STRT 97%
Apparel Retail 25 1.6%5.3%-40.2% ANF 298% · DXLG 192% · URBN 135%
Household Appliances 18 9.7%35.9%-41.0% KEQU 187% · FLXS 153% · HBB 114%
Leisure Facilities 12 -17.6%-8.7%-44.8% OSW 138% · JAKK 97% · ESCA 7%
Broadline Retail 15 8.0%14.0%-53.2% DDS 296% · AMZN 59% · EBAY 51%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 -19.4%-2.0%-60.9% BBY -12% · UPBD -61% · GME -65%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -66.2%-68.6%-71.0% GM 80% · TSLA 47% · F 42%
Other Specialty Retail 18 -30.8%-45.6%-79.2% TLF 106% · BBW 101% · WINA 91%
Consumer Electronics 11 -11.8%-13.2%-79.4% AXIL 2177% · GRMN 80% · TBCH -56%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SHAKMCDCMGQSRDRIBLMNMedian
NameShake Sh.McDonald.Chipotle.Restaura.Darden R.Bloomin . 
Mkt Price69.89265.0038.0378.26215.6310.5874.08
Mkt Cap2.8187.948.627.224.60.925.9
Rev LTM1,55227,70212,4249,69913,2113,98011,061
Op Inc LTM8212,6621,9182,6151,6071291,762
FCF LTM-127,7611,5691,6321,0881551,328
FCF 3Y Avg177,2511,4451,3881,0331021,210
CFO LTM19211,3442,3281,9041,8483201,876
CFO 3Y Avg17610,2452,0991,6031,7203051,661

Growth & Margins

SHAKMCDCMGQSRDRIBLMNMedian
NameShake Sh.McDonald.Chipotle.Restaura.Darden R.Bloomin . 
Rev Chg LTM17.3%6.3%7.3%6.5%9.4%1.2%6.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg16.1%4.6%10.2%12.9%8.0%-1.2%9.1%
Rev Chg Q17.2%3.8%9.3%4.6%13.7%1.3%6.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.1%0.9%2.3%1.1%3.5%0.3%1.7%
Op Inc Chg LTM20.9%5.3%-4.0%11.4%11.9%-15.6%8.3%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg102.5%4.5%9.1%7.8%9.7%-26.5%8.5%
Op Mgn LTM5.3%45.7%15.4%27.0%12.2%3.2%13.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg4.5%45.8%16.7%27.3%12.0%4.5%14.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%-0.3%-0.5%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM12.3%41.0%18.7%19.6%14.0%8.0%16.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg13.1%38.6%18.1%18.2%14.1%7.8%16.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.8%28.0%12.6%16.8%8.2%3.9%10.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.4%27.3%12.5%15.8%8.5%2.6%10.5%

Valuation

SHAKMCDCMGQSRDRIBLMNMedian
NameShake Sh.McDonald.Chipotle.Restaura.Darden R.Bloomin . 
Mkt Cap2.8187.948.627.224.60.925.9
P/S1.86.83.92.81.90.22.3
P/Op Inc34.314.825.310.415.37.015.1
P/EBIT42.014.725.310.415.619.017.3
P/E71.021.434.221.420.432.727.1
P/CFO14.716.620.914.313.32.814.5
Total Yield1.4%7.5%2.9%8.9%7.7%4.5%6.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.8%0.0%4.2%2.8%1.4%2.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.3%3.7%2.4%6.0%4.7%10.6%4.2%
D/E0.30.30.10.60.32.10.3
Net D/E0.20.30.10.50.22.00.3

Returns

SHAKMCDCMGQSRDRIBLMNMedian
NameShake Sh.McDonald.Chipotle.Restaura.Darden R.Bloomin . 
1M Rtn10.8%-2.4%11.1%3.6%1.6%20.1%7.2%
3M Rtn8.7%-4.4%19.4%5.7%6.6%25.4%7.6%
6M Rtn-27.2%-21.3%2.2%11.1%2.4%72.9%2.3%
12M Rtn-34.0%-13.1%-10.3%28.7%7.6%45.1%-1.4%
3Y Rtn0.0%0.3%-0.1%26.3%52.6%-57.2%0.2%
1M Excs Rtn7.1%-5.0%-5.0%1.6%0.5%15.7%1.0%
3M Excs Rtn6.9%-6.2%17.6%4.0%4.9%23.6%5.9%
6M Excs Rtn-39.3%-33.4%-9.9%-1.0%-9.7%60.8%-9.8%
12M Excs Rtn-53.5%-31.8%-29.8%10.6%-11.1%26.7%-20.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-74.4%-72.9%-73.5%-49.2%-21.7%-131.4%-73.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single segment1,4451,2531,088900 
Licensing revenue    25
Shack sales    715
Total1,4451,2531,088900740


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil202520242023
Single segment501121
Total501121


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024
Single segment1,8961,697
Total1,8961,697


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$69.89 
Market Cap ($ Bil)2.8 
First Trading Date01/30/2015 
Distance from 52W High-34.1% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$64.62$80.06
DMA Trenddownup
Distance from DMA8.1%-12.7%
 3M1YR
Volatility53.0%54.3%
Downside Capture13.42133.71
Upside Capture51.5857.50
Correlation (SPY)13.3%28.5%
SHAK Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.130.350.311.371.321.47
Up Beta-3.000.420.872.032.041.76
Down Beta-0.470.50-0.201.471.281.50
Up Capture169%17%-64%63%38%128%
Bmk +ve Days11223567138427
Stock +ve Days10212759115364
Down Capture-11%33%156%147%141%108%
Bmk -ve Days11212859114326
Stock -ve Days12223667137387

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with SHAK
SHAK-34.6%54.2%-0.57-
Sector ETF (XLY)0.9%19.4%-0.0832.8%
Equity (SPY)20.1%12.8%1.1628.7%
Gold (GLD)30.9%29.0%0.9212.1%
Commodities (DBC)39.9%20.3%1.54-18.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)9.9%13.7%0.4425.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-27.5%43.6%-0.6118.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with SHAK
SHAK-3.5%51.9%0.12-
Sector ETF (XLY)6.5%24.1%0.2353.3%
Equity (SPY)13.1%17.2%0.5949.5%
Gold (GLD)19.7%18.7%0.856.9%
Commodities (DBC)11.5%19.6%0.462.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.0%18.9%0.0040.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)10.4%52.6%0.3824.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with SHAK
SHAK7.0%50.6%0.33-
Sector ETF (XLY)12.3%22.2%0.5151.5%
Equity (SPY)15.2%17.9%0.7248.7%
Gold (GLD)12.2%16.3%0.616.6%
Commodities (DBC)7.3%18.0%0.3312.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%20.7%0.2042.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)64.0%66.1%1.0418.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date8142026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 73120264.9%
Average Daily Volume2.4 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.6 days
Basic Shares Quantity40.4 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares9.7%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 8/14/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/5/202612.2%8.4% 
5/7/2026-28.3%-33.8%-45.8%
2/26/20267.0%5.7%-7.7%
10/30/20251.7%6.6%-4.1%
7/31/2025-14.6%-19.8%-24.8%
5/1/20251.1%16.2%47.9%
2/20/202511.1%-1.0%-18.5%
10/30/20247.8%11.6%16.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11118
# Negative131315
Median Positive11.1%8.4%17.4%
Median Negative-3.4%-6.4%-8.2%
Max Positive26.0%25.7%47.9%
Max Negative-28.3%-33.8%-45.8%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/5/202612.2%8.4% 
5/7/2026-28.3%-33.8%-45.8%
2/26/20267.0%5.7%-7.7%
10/30/20251.7%6.6%-4.1%
7/31/2025-14.6%-19.8%-24.8%
5/1/20251.1%16.2%47.9%
2/20/202511.1%-1.0%-18.5%
10/30/20247.8%11.6%16.5%
8/1/202416.9%10.9%15.7%
5/2/20241.6%-0.6%-8.2%
2/15/202426.0%24.3%32.8%
11/2/2023-1.4%-1.8%7.7%
8/3/2023-0.5%0.8%-6.7%
5/4/202316.6%25.7%29.9%
2/16/2023-3.4%-3.6%-6.4%
11/3/2022-8.2%-11.4%0.0%
8/4/2022-6.2%-6.4%-13.3%
5/5/2022-2.4%-21.7%-16.8%
2/17/2022-4.1%-4.3%-12.3%
11/4/202116.5%7.4%-4.3%
8/5/2021-2.5%-1.4%-7.9%
5/6/2021-15.3%-24.7%-10.0%
2/25/2021-0.4%-8.0%-3.3%
10/29/2020-2.1%3.2%18.4%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive11118
# Negative131315
Median Positive11.1%8.4%17.4%
Median Negative-3.4%-6.4%-8.2%
Max Positive26.0%25.7%47.9%
Max Negative-28.3%-33.8%-45.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/05/202610-Q
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/21/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202408/02/202410-Q
03/31/202405/03/202410-Q
12/31/202302/29/202410-K
09/30/202311/03/202310-Q
06/30/202308/04/202310-Q
03/31/202305/05/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
09/30/202211/04/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/05/202610-Q
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/21/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202408/02/202410-Q
03/31/202405/03/202410-Q
12/31/202302/29/202410-K
09/30/202311/03/202310-Q
06/30/202308/04/202310-Q
03/31/202305/05/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
09/30/202211/04/202210-Q
06/30/202208/05/202210-Q
03/31/202205/06/202210-Q
12/31/202102/18/202210-K
09/30/202111/05/202110-Q
06/30/202108/06/202110-Q
03/31/202105/07/202110-Q
12/31/202002/26/202110-K
09/30/202010/30/202010-Q
06/30/202007/31/202010-Q
03/31/202005/04/202010-Q
12/31/201902/24/202010-K
09/30/201911/04/201910-Q

Insider Activity

Updated 7/17/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Silverman, Josh Silverman-Ghotbi Revocable TrustBuy518202660.388,290500,525500,525Form
2Flug, Jeffrey DirectBuy518202661.301,00061,296335,286Form
3Chapman, Charles J Iii CJC NP Solo Rollover 401KBuy518202661.321,00061,32061,320Form
4Chapman, Charles J Iii CJC NP Solo Roth 401KBuy518202661.4378047,91547,915Form
5Chapman, Charles J Iii CJC Roth IRABuy518202661.3222013,49013,490Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Silverman, Josh Silverman-Ghotbi Revocable TrustBuy518202660.388,290500,525500,525Form
2Flug, Jeffrey DirectBuy518202661.301,00061,296335,286Form
3Chapman, Charles J Iii CJC NP Solo Rollover 401KBuy518202661.321,00061,32061,320Form
4Chapman, Charles J Iii CJC NP Solo Roth 401KBuy518202661.4378047,91547,915Form
5Chapman, Charles J Iii CJC Roth IRABuy518202661.3222013,49013,490Form
6Balbale, Sumaiya DirectBuy518202661.424,068249,866823,489Form
7Lynch, RobertChief Executive OfficerDirectBuy518202660.395,000301,9404,700,904Form
8Meyer, Daniel Harris BY TRUSTBuy518202661.8832,2581,996,21523,433,160Form
9Sentell, Stephanie AnnChief Operations OfficerDirectSell4172026102.2125826,3701,541,736Form
10Sentell, Stephanie AnnChief Operations OfficerDirectSell310202693.6022521,0601,436,011Form
11Sentell, Stephanie AnnChief Operations OfficerDirectSell122202699.1920019,838942,999Form
12Sentell, Stephanie AnnChief Operations OfficerDirectSell1222202585.7820017,156832,666Form
13Sentell, Stephanie AnnChief Operations OfficerDirectSell1126202585.141,10093,657843,509Form
14Fogertey, Katherine IreneChief Financial OfficerDirectSell7092025140.0367093,8174,550,122Form
15Fogertey, Katherine IreneChief Financial OfficerDirectSell7092025141.282,023285,8084,685,523Form
16Meyer, Daniel Harris TrustSell7032025140.3114,2001,992,45547,423,786Form
17Meyer, Daniel Harris TrustSell7032025139.0315,8002,196,67348,964,113Form
18Meyer, Daniel Harris BY TRUSTSell6302025140.0720,0002,801,34451,542,489Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Aug 29, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
12 West Capital Management LP$110.0 Mil18.6%20TRIM -36.7%13F
Anomaly Capital Management, LP$90.4 Mil5.5%21New13F
Think Investments LP$15.8 Mil2.1%30New13F
Opti Capital Management, LP$24.6 Mil1.8%36ADD +268.1%13F
Linonia Partnership LP$8.4 Mil0.2%14Hold13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Anomaly Capital Management, LP$90.4 Mil5.5%21New13F
Think Investments LP$15.8 Mil2.1%30New13F
Opti Capital Management, LP$24.6 Mil1.8%36ADD +268.1%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Kettle Hill Capital Management, LLC$5.8 Mil1.3%39ExitedDec 31, 202513F
12 West Capital Management LP$110.0 Mil18.6%20TRIM -36.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
12 West Capital Management LP$110.0 Mil18.6%20TRIM -36.7%13F
Anomaly Capital Management, LP$90.4 Mil5.5%21New13F
Opti Capital Management, LP$24.6 Mil1.8%36ADD +268.1%13F
Think Investments LP$15.8 Mil2.1%30New13F
Linonia Partnership LP$8.4 Mil0.2%14Hold13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 8/28/2026