Tearsheet

Bloomin Brands (BLMN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.8 | Market Cap: $578.6 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Bloomin Brands (BLMN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.8
Market Cap: $578.6 Mil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 9.6%, FCF Yield is 16%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -118%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 349%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0%
0 Attractive yield
Dividend Yield is 9.6%, FCF Yield is 16%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -118%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -137%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 349%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.9%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

BLMN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) experienced a stock price decline of -6.4% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, primarily influenced by its third-quarter 2025 financial results and strategic adjustments. Here are the key points explaining the stock movement: 1. Weaker-than-Expected Diluted Loss Per Share in Q3 2025: Bloomin' Brands reported a diluted loss per share of $(0.54) for Q3 2025, significantly below the estimated diluted loss per share of $(0.11). While the adjusted diluted loss per share was $(0.03), it still represented a decline compared to the adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.11 in Q3 2024.

2. Decline in GAAP Operating Loss Margin and Restaurant-Level Operating Margin: The company's GAAP operating loss margin declined to (3.9)% in Q3 2025 from 0.9% in Q3 2024, primarily due to higher impairment and closure costs. The adjusted operating income margin also fell to 0.8% from 2.3% in the previous year. Additionally, the restaurant-level operating margin decreased to 9.2% from 11.1% in Q3 2024, attributed to increased commodity, labor, and operating costs, mainly due to inflation, as well as higher insurance expense and unfavorable product cost mix.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
BLMN Return-11%8%-2%46%-54%-42%-63%
Peers Return25%27%-18%25%2%-4%56%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BLMN Win Rate50%50%33%50%33%40% 
Peers Win Rate62%57%35%58%50%44% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BLMN Max Drawdown-78%-10%-21%0%-57%-49% 
Peers Max Drawdown-57%-10%-34%-10%-18%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: YUM, CMG, DRI, PZZA, BJRI. See BLMN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBLMNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-48.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven94.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-79.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven385.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven327 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-38.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven62.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven549 days120 days

Compare to YUM, CMG, DRI, PZZA, BJRI


In The Past

Bloomin Brands's stock fell -48.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/30/2021. A -48.5% loss requires a 94.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Bloomin Brands (BLMN)

Better Bets than Bloomin Brands (BLMN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to BLMN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Bloomin Brands

Peers to compare with:

Financials

BLMNYUMCMGDRIPZZABJRIMedian
NameBloomin .Yum Bran.Chipotle.Darden R.Papa Joh.BJ's Res. 
Mkt Price6.88148.5233.93177.3242.8737.8140.34
Mkt Cap0.641.345.320.71.40.811.1
Rev LTM3,9538,06111,78712,3642,0861,3886,007
Op Inc LTM1352,4851,9961,46910847802
FCF LTM1001,5641,5731,0687949584
FCF 3Y Avg1111,4131,4049427218527
CFO LTM2771,9062,2151,7681571241,023
CFO 3Y Avg3391,7121,9931,590149106965

Growth & Margins

BLMNYUMCMGDRIPZZABJRIMedian
NameBloomin .Yum Bran.Chipotle.Darden R.Papa Joh.BJ's Res. 
Rev Chg LTM7.7%11.6%7.3%8.3%-0.6%3.9%7.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-2.9%6.4%11.9%8.2%-0.3%4.2%5.3%
Rev Chg Q2.1%8.4%7.5%10.4%0.3%1.4%4.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.5%1.9%1.8%2.4%0.1%0.3%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM3.4%30.8%16.9%11.9%5.2%3.4%8.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg5.6%31.7%17.0%11.8%6.1%2.4%9.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-0.0%-0.3%-0.0%-0.6%0.1%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM7.0%23.6%18.8%14.3%7.5%8.9%11.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.5%23.0%18.6%13.8%7.1%7.8%11.2%
FCF/Rev LTM2.5%19.4%13.3%8.6%3.8%3.5%6.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.8%18.9%13.1%8.1%3.4%1.3%5.8%

Valuation

BLMNYUMCMGDRIPZZABJRIMedian
NameBloomin .Yum Bran.Chipotle.Darden R.Papa Joh.BJ's Res. 
Mkt Cap0.641.345.320.71.40.811.1
P/S0.25.24.42.10.80.51.4
P/EBIT9.216.926.218.216.821.817.6
P/E-10.629.234.023.141.421.626.2
P/CFO2.222.223.614.410.15.412.2
Total Yield0.1%5.3%2.9%6.9%6.3%4.6%4.9%
Dividend Yield9.6%1.8%0.0%2.6%3.9%0.0%2.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg9.4%3.6%2.4%4.5%3.9%2.4%3.8%
D/E3.60.30.10.20.60.70.4
Net D/E3.50.20.10.20.60.70.4

Returns

BLMNYUMCMGDRIPZZABJRIMedian
NameBloomin .Yum Bran.Chipotle.Darden R.Papa Joh.BJ's Res. 
1M Rtn1.8%7.1%7.7%-0.1%-10.2%11.4%4.4%
3M Rtn-1.6%3.2%-18.8%-14.2%-10.1%11.7%-5.8%
6M Rtn-10.8%4.1%-35.0%-16.8%-7.0%-15.9%-13.3%
12M Rtn-44.1%9.9%-44.3%7.0%-7.8%3.8%-2.0%
3Y Rtn-62.6%21.3%5.7%34.5%-42.9%19.5%12.6%
1M Excs Rtn1.8%7.1%7.7%-0.1%-10.2%11.4%4.5%
3M Excs Rtn-9.9%-1.5%-23.4%-20.3%-13.8%6.2%-11.9%
6M Excs Rtn-25.6%-10.6%-49.7%-31.5%-21.8%-30.6%-28.1%
12M Excs Rtn-61.4%-4.1%-58.4%-9.9%-23.6%-15.2%-19.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-137.5%-48.4%-61.7%-39.5%-115.3%-52.4%-57.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
U.S.4,054    
All other revenues73    
International Franchise42    
Franchise and other revenues 64612664
Restaurant sales 4,3534,0613,1454,075
Total4,1684,4174,1223,1714,139


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
U.S.378    
International Franchise39    
Other income (loss) from operations0    
Unallocated corporate operating expense-134    
Total283    


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
U.S.2,704    
Corporate292    
Assets of discontinued operations held for sale288    
International Franchise104    
Other37    
Total3,424    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity8,073,305
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-2.2%
Average Daily Volume2,884,278
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.80
Basic Shares Quantity85,093,000
Short % of Basic Shares9.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/28/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/29/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/24/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/25/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/26/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/25/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/25/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/26/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/27/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/26/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Christel Eric CEVP, Chief Financial Officer11122025Buy6.38150,000957,000957,000Form
1Kunkel Julie T. 11122025Buy6.371,5009,55532,267Form
2Hafner Patrick MEVP, Pres Outback Steakhouse11122025Sell6.414,25627,28151,280Form