Bloomin Brands (BLMN)
Market Price (6/23/2026): $8.33 | Market Cap: $710.4 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Bloomin Brands (BLMN)
Market Price (6/23/2026): $8.33Market Cap: $710.4 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, FCF Yield is 17% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -89%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -135% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 268% Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.2% Key risksBLMN key risks include [1] challenges executing the turnaround of its flagship Outback Steakhouse brand and [2] a substantial debt load that limits financial flexibility. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, Dividend Yield is 3.6%, FCF Yield is 17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -89%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -135% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 268% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.2% |
| Key risksBLMN key risks include [1] challenges executing the turnaround of its flagship Outback Steakhouse brand and [2] a substantial debt load that limits financial flexibility. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Bloomin Brands (BLMN) stock has gained about 35% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Outperformance. Bloomin' Brands reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.67 for fiscal Q1 2026, which concluded on March 29, 2026, significantly exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $0.57 by 17.54%. Total revenues for the quarter reached $1.06 billion, surpassing analyst projections of $1.04 billion and marking a 1% increase year-over-year. The company also achieved a 0.9% increase in U.S. comparable restaurant sales.
2. Visible Progress in Outback Steakhouse Turnaround Strategy. The company's multi-year turnaround strategy for its flagship Outback Steakhouse brand showed tangible progress, with planned investments of approximately $50 million in 2026, part of a larger $75 million initiative through 2028. This strategy focuses on enhancing the dine-in experience through improved steak quality, expanded char-grill capacity, and service model adjustments, including reducing the server-to-table ratio. Outback's guest metrics improved for the third consecutive quarter, indicating positive operational momentum.
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Bloomin Brands (BLMN) stock has gained about 35% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q1 2026 Earnings Outperformance. Bloomin' Brands reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.67 for fiscal Q1 2026, which concluded on March 29, 2026, significantly exceeding analysts' consensus estimates of $0.57 by 17.54%. Total revenues for the quarter reached $1.06 billion, surpassing analyst projections of $1.04 billion and marking a 1% increase year-over-year. The company also achieved a 0.9% increase in U.S. comparable restaurant sales.
2. Visible Progress in Outback Steakhouse Turnaround Strategy. The company's multi-year turnaround strategy for its flagship Outback Steakhouse brand showed tangible progress, with planned investments of approximately $50 million in 2026, part of a larger $75 million initiative through 2028. This strategy focuses on enhancing the dine-in experience through improved steak quality, expanded char-grill capacity, and service model adjustments, including reducing the server-to-table ratio. Outback's guest metrics improved for the third consecutive quarter, indicating positive operational momentum.
3. Reaffirmed Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Outlook and Margin Expansion Efforts. Bloomin' Brands reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2026 financial guidance, providing investors with confidence in its future performance. For fiscal Q2 2026, the company projected U.S. comparable restaurant sales growth between 1% and 2% and adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $0.27 to $0.32. Management also targeted restaurant-level margin expansion of 50–100 basis points over fiscal 2025–2026, driven by strategic pricing actions, supply-chain cost normalization, and productivity initiatives.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 36.1% change in BLMN stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 163.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.12 | 8.33 | 36.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,956 | 3,966 | 0.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.2% | 0.5% | 163.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 63.3 | 32.7 | -48.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 85 | 85 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 36.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLMN | 36.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.8% | 30.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.4% | 34.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 17.3% change in BLMN stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.10 | 8.33 | 17.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,953 | 3,966 | 0.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.2 | 17.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 85 | 85 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 17.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLMN | 17.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.5% | 25.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -2.4% | 29.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.5% change in BLMN stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.0% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.47 | 8.33 | 11.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,931 | 3,966 | 0.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.2 | 11.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 85 | 85 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.5% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLMN | 11.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 27.7% | 25.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 8.4% | 28.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -60.5% change in BLMN stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -80.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 21.07 | 8.33 | -60.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,113 | 3,966 | -3.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.9% | 0.5% | -80.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.0 | 32.7 | 104.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 89 | 85 | 4.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -60.5% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLMN | -60.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.1% | 32.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 55.4% | 33.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BLMN Return | 8% | -2% | 46% | -54% | -47% | 31% | -51% |
| Peers Return | 15% | -16% | 23% | 5% | -12% | 27% | 39% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BLMN Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 50% | 33% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 38% | 60% | 55% | 47% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BLMN Max Drawdown | -45% | -34% | -21% | -60% | -51% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -32% | -29% | -28% | -39% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: YUM, CMG, DRI, BJRI, CBRL. See BLMN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BLMN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 372.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 322 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 436 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Bloomin Brands's stock fell -5.8% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 6.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | BLMN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 53 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -78.8% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 372.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 322 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -30.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 436 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Bloomin Brands's stock fell -5.8% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 6.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Bloomin Brands (BLMN)
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN) is a prominent restaurant company that develops, owns, and operates a diverse portfolio of full-service dining establishments. The company's business model centers on creating and managing distinct restaurant concepts, serving a broad spectrum of dining preferences from casual to fine dining experiences across its U.S. and International segments.
The company's primary products are the dining experiences offered at its various restaurant brands. These include Outback Steakhouse, known for its casual steakhouse fare; Carrabba's Italian Grill, offering casual Italian cuisine; Bonefish Grill, focusing on seafood; and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, positioned as a contemporary fine dining steakhouse. Through these concepts, Bloomin' Brands provides a range of culinary options, from everyday meals to special occasion dining.
Bloomin' Brands serves a wide customer base across the United States and internationally. Its restaurants cater to individuals and groups seeking various dining experiences, from families looking for casual meals to patrons desiring upscale dining. As of late 2021, the company operated nearly 1,500 owned and franchised restaurants across 47 U.S. states and 17 countries and Guam, establishing a significant footprint in the global restaurant market.
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Here are a few analogies to describe Bloomin' Brands:
- It's like Darden Restaurants (the parent company of Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse), but its portfolio of restaurant chains includes Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's Italian Grill, and Bonefish Grill.
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- Outback Steakhouse Services: Offers casual steakhouse dining experiences.
- Carrabba's Italian Grill Services: Provides casual Italian dining experiences.
- Bonefish Grill Services: Delivers upscale casual dining experiences, primarily focusing on seafood.
- Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar Services: Offers fine dining steakhouse and wine bar experiences.
- Restaurant Franchising: Licenses its restaurant concepts to independent operators for domestic and international locations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN) operates a portfolio of restaurant concepts, including Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar. As such, the company primarily sells its services directly to individual consumers rather than other businesses.
The customers Bloomin' Brands serves can be categorized into up to three groups based on the dining experience and price point offered by its various concepts:
- Casual Diners: These customers are drawn to restaurants like Outback Steakhouse and Carrabba's Italian Grill, seeking a relaxed, family-friendly atmosphere, and value-oriented meals. They often look for familiar flavors, consistent quality, and an accessible dining experience for everyday meals or casual gatherings.
- Upscale Casual Diners: This category of customers is attracted to concepts such as Bonefish Grill. They typically seek a slightly more refined and contemporary dining experience than casual diners, often with a focus on fresh, higher-quality ingredients (like seafood), a more sophisticated ambiance, and a menu that offers a step up in culinary experience without entering the fine dining realm.
- Fine Dining Patrons: Customers who frequent Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar fall into this category. They are seeking a premium, high-end dining experience, characterized by prime cuts of meat, an extensive wine list, impeccable service, and a luxurious atmosphere. This clientele often dines for special occasions, business entertainment, or when desiring a truly indulgent meal.
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Michael Spanos, Chief Executive Officer
Michael Spanos was named Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors in September 2024. He brings over 25 years of leadership, strategy, operations, and retail consumer products experience. Prior to Bloomin' Brands, he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Delta Air Lines from 2023-2024. From 2019-2021, he was the President and CEO of Six Flags Entertainment. He also spent more than 25 years at PepsiCo and the Pepsi Bottling Group in various leadership roles, including President Greater China and CEO of the Asia, Middle East, and North Africa sector. Spanos is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy and served in the U.S. Marine Corps.
Eric Christel, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Eric Christel assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer around September 8, 2025. He brings nearly two decades of financial leadership across the food and beverage sector. His prior experience includes serving as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of The Campbell's Company's Snacks Division and several leadership roles at PepsiCo from 2007 to 2020. He has extensive experience in operating, financial planning & analysis (FP&A), strategy, and transformation in complex businesses, including both franchisee and franchisor models.
Kelly Lefferts, Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary
Kelly Lefferts was appointed Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Secretary in July 2019, having joined Bloomin' Brands in 1997 as Corporate Counsel. She oversees the legal, compliance, and employee relations teams. Before Bloomin' Brands, she was an attorney at Foley and Lardner, focusing on corporate and business matters, mergers and acquisitions, securities, executive compensation, and commercial lending. Lefferts was a founding member of the Board of Directors of the Restaurant Law Center and is involved with the Women's Foodservice Forum. She has experience in both public and private company spaces, including taking a formerly NYSE-listed company private and then public again after five years of private equity ownership.
Lissette Gonzalez, Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Lissette Gonzalez was appointed Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer in February 2025. She is responsible for overseeing Global Supply Chain, Operations & Training, Off-Premises Dining, Productivity, Customer Analytics, Customer Insights, Digital & Media, Revenue Growth Management, and IT teams. Gonzalez joined Bloomin' Brands in 2014, and previously spent 16 years at Office Depot in various supply chain roles. She holds a bachelor's degree in industrial engineering and a master's degree in engineering management from Florida International University. She was recognized as one of the Top 30 Global Supply Chain Leaders for 2023.
Pat Hafner, Executive Vice President, President of Outback Steakhouse
Pat Hafner was named Executive Vice President, President of Outback Steakhouse in January 2025, where he leads the Culinary team, and domestic operations and development for nearly 700 restaurants. He has a career of nearly 30 years with Bloomin' Brands, beginning as a server and cook at Outback Steakhouse in 1996. He advanced through various roles at Outback, including Manager, Managing Partner, Joint Venture Partner, and Regional Vice President. In 2018, he became Vice President of Operations for Carrabba's Italian Grill and was promoted to President of Carrabba's in April 2022.
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The key risks to Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) include a substantial debt load, significant challenges in its turnaround strategy within a highly competitive casual dining market, and ongoing inflationary pressures combined with macroeconomic headwinds impacting consumer spending and operating costs.
- High Debt Load and Financial Instability: Bloomin' Brands faces considerable financial risk due to its substantial debt load, high debt-to-equity ratio, and low interest coverage, with some analyses placing the company in a "distress zone" regarding potential financial instability. The company has undertaken measures such as suspending dividends and selling off a majority stake in its Brazil operations to reduce debt, highlighting the severity of this financial pressure.
- Challenging Turnaround and Intense Competition: The company is engaged in a critical turnaround strategy, particularly for its largest brand, Outback Steakhouse, which has experienced weak comparable sales and declining customer traffic. The casual dining sector is intensely competitive, with Bloomin' Brands needing to successfully redefine its brand positioning and value offerings to contend with numerous rival chains and the growing popularity of fast-casual concepts. The success of these initiatives is not guaranteed and carries significant execution risk.
- Inflationary Pressures and Macroeconomic Headwinds: Bloomin' Brands is highly vulnerable to adverse economic conditions, including persistent inflation in commodity prices (such as beef) and increasing labor costs. A tight labor market poses challenges in recruiting and retaining staff, contributing to higher operational expenses. Additionally, cautious consumer spending due to economic downturns, "inflation fatigue," and rising energy costs directly impact restaurant traffic and revenue, further squeezing already thin profit margins.
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The rise of ghost kitchens and virtual restaurant brands presents an emerging threat. These operations utilize existing commercial kitchen spaces to prepare food exclusively for delivery, often running multiple distinct "virtual" brands from a single location. This business model bypasses the significant overhead associated with traditional dine-in restaurants, such as expensive real estate, front-of-house staff, and extensive dining room build-outs. By focusing solely on efficient food production and delivery, ghost kitchens can offer a broader range of cuisines, adapt more quickly to consumer trends, and potentially operate with lower price points or higher margins, directly competing with Bloomin' Brands' delivery and takeout offerings while disrupting the traditional full-service restaurant economic model.
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Global Market
- Full-Service Restaurants: The global full-service restaurants market was estimated at approximately US$1.6 trillion in 2024 and is expected to reach US$1.8 trillion by 2030.
- Casual Dining: The global casual dining market size was valued at USD 333.02 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 575.5 billion by 2035.
- Fine Dining: The Global Fine Dining Restaurants Market is projected to expand from USD 191.11 billion in 2025 to USD 289.87 billion by 2031.
U.S. Market
- Full-Service Restaurants: The U.S. full-service restaurants market size is predicted to value at US$ 371.9 billion in 2025 and reach US$ 715.8 billion by 2032.
- Casual Dining: null
- Fine Dining: The market size of Fine Dining Restaurants in the U.S. is $17.2 billion in 2025.
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Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through a multi-faceted turnaround strategy centered on its core brands, strategic investments, and operational enhancements. The following are key expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- Outback Steakhouse Turnaround Strategy and Restaurant Remodels: A primary driver for Bloomin' Brands is the comprehensive turnaround strategy focused on its largest brand, Outback Steakhouse. This initiative involves significant investments aimed at enhancing steak quality, improving the service model by lowering table-to-server ratios, and implementing restaurant remodels and refreshes. Management plans to invest approximately $50 million in turnaround initiatives for Outback in 2026, with an expectation to refresh nearly all Outback locations by the end of 2028. Positive traffic trends at Outback, seen for the first time since Q4 2021, indicate early success from these efforts.
- Enhanced Value Offerings and Menu Innovation: The company is focusing on delivering value to guests, which has proven effective in driving traffic. For instance, Outback's "Aussie 3-Course" value offering has successfully attracted customers, with a significant portion opting for higher-priced tiers. This strategy of providing appealing value propositions, coupled with ongoing menu innovation and new product offerings, is expected to continue to boost customer visits and average check sizes across its brands.
- Growth in Off-Premise Dining and Digital Capabilities: Bloomin' Brands is capitalizing on the sustained demand for off-premise dining. Investments in digital transformation, including revamped mobile apps for convenient ordering and curbside pickup, are enhancing the customer experience for takeout and delivery across brands like Outback, Carrabba's, and Fleming's. This focus on digital channels and off-premise sales, including catering, is a key component of their growth strategy. Outback is shifting its marketing resources to 60% digital in 2026, up from 33% in 2025, to support this.
- Strategic International Expansion: Particularly for Outback Steakhouse, international expansion represents a significant opportunity for continued growth as its domestic market matures. Bloomin' Brands maintains a global presence with its Outback Steakhouse concept across 17 countries and Guam, and adapting to local market demands is crucial for this segment's success.
- Carrabba's Italian Grill Expansion and Digital Investment: Carrabba's Italian Grill has demonstrated positive comparable restaurant sales and continues to focus on expanding its presence. The brand is actively investing in digital technologies to enhance the dining experience and has historically planned for new restaurant openings, indicating a continued growth mindset for this segment.
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Share Repurchases
- Bloomin' Brands repurchased 10.1 million shares for a total of $265.7 million during 2024.
- The company repurchased $70.8 million in shares in 2023 and $109.2 million in shares in 2022.
- A new $350.0 million share repurchase authorization was approved in February 2024, replacing a prior $57.5 million remaining authorization. This program is set to expire on August 13, 2025, with $96.8 million remaining as of August 2025.
Share Issuance
- In February 2024, Bloomin' Brands delivered approximately 7.5 million shares of common stock and $3.3 million in cash to exchange for $83.6 million in principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In December 2024, Bloomin' Brands completed the sale of a 67% majority stake in its Brazil operations (Outback Steakhouse restaurants) to a fund managed by Vinci Partners for approximately $243 million.
- The company retained a 33% interest in the Brazil operations and has an option to sell its remaining stake in 2028.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures are expected to be between $185 million and $195 million for 2026, with a focus on refreshing nearly all Outback locations by 2028.
- Estimated capital expenditures for 2025 are between $190 million and $210 million.
- The company plans approximately $75 million in investments over three years (2026-2028) for its turnaround strategy, including $25 million for food quality improvements, largely offset by $80 million in productivity initiatives.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Bloomin Brands Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Is Bloomin Brands Stock Built to Withstand a Pullback? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Bloomin Brands (BLMN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Bloomin Brands (BLMN) Net Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Bloomin Brands (BLMN) Debt Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Bloomin Brands (BLMN) EBITDA Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Bloomin Brands (BLMN) Revenue Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Bloomin Brands (BLMN) Operating Income Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| Bloomin Brands (BLMN) Tax Expense Comparison | 08/08/2025 | |
| BLMN Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Market Movers | Winners: GO, VSAT, ALAB | Losers: BLMN, LNTH, EOLS | 08/07/2025 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 50.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.8 |
| Rev LTM | 6,226 |
| Op Inc LTM | 813 |
| FCF LTM | 557 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 543 |
| CFO LTM | 1,007 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 987 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 7.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.8 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 16.1 |
| P/EBIT | 19.3 |
| P/E | 26.7 |
| P/CFO | 10.9 |
| Total Yield | 5.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 29.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -3.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 9.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -28.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -75.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | 3,886 | 3,857 | 4,054 | |
| All other revenues | 38 | 54 | 73 | |
| International Franchise | 31 | 39 | 42 | |
| Franchise and other revenues | 64 | |||
| Restaurant sales | 4,353 | |||
| Total | 3,956 | 3,950 | 4,168 | 4,417 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | 180 | 250 | 378 | |
| International Franchise | 30 | 38 | 39 | |
| Other income (loss) from operations | 2 | -17 | 0 | |
| Unallocated corporate operating expense | -176 | -131 | -134 | |
| International | 35 | |||
| Unallocated | -146 | |||
| United States | 342 | |||
| Total | 37 | 140 | 283 | 231 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | 2,599 | 2,735 | 2,704 | |
| Corporate | 388 | 307 | 292 | |
| International Franchise | 105 | 103 | 104 | |
| Other | 80 | 16 | 37 | |
| Assets of discontinued operations held for sale | 0 | 223 | 288 | |
| International | 473 | |||
| Unallocated | 155 | |||
| United States | 2,405 | |||
| Total | 3,172 | 3,385 | 3,424 | 3,033 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $8.33 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/08/2012 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -19.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $7.28 | $6.84 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 14.4% | 21.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 98.1% | 77.6% |
| Downside Capture | 104.35 | 142.41 |
| Upside Capture | 197.10 | 90.93 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.1% | 24.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 8.07 | 4.66 | 2.52 | 1.97 | 1.87 | 1.34 |
| Up Beta | 22.27 | 6.46 | 3.23 | 2.85 | 2.08 | 1.65 |
| Down Beta | 0.87 | 1.00 | 1.93 | 1.03 | 2.31 | 1.16 |
| Up Capture | 637% | 419% | 303% | 221% | 164% | 64% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 32 | 60 | 119 | 345 |
| Down Capture | 337% | 407% | 186% | 165% | 146% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 31 | 63 | 129 | 401 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BLMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLMN | -5.1% | 77.6% | 0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 10.1% | 18.5% | 0.38 | 26.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.1% | 12.4% | 1.59 | 23.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 12.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 18.5% | 18.8% | 0.77 | -10.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.8% | 13.8% | 0.57 | 30.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.2% | 42.5% | -1.09 | 11.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BLMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLMN | -18.7% | 55.9% | -0.16 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.7% | 23.9% | 0.24 | 41.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.4% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 38.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.28 | 3.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.1% | 18.9% | 0.01 | 34.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.4% | 54.1% | 0.37 | 16.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BLMN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLMN | -5.8% | 54.2% | 0.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.5% | 22.1% | 0.52 | 47.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 46.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.2% | 16.1% | 0.62 | 5.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.0% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 13.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 44.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 59.9% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 13.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/9/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | 41.0% | 44.4% | 24.0% |
| 2/25/2026 | -2.7% | 8.2% | -4.3% |
| 11/6/2025 | -11.5% | -10.2% | -3.2% |
| 8/6/2025 | -30.7% | -23.8% | -17.7% |
| 5/7/2025 | -8.4% | 6.3% | -4.6% |
| 2/26/2025 | -16.8% | -30.8% | -32.3% |
| 11/8/2024 | -9.7% | -20.0% | -22.8% |
| 8/6/2024 | -7.2% | -15.9% | -4.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.3% | -10.2% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 41.0% | 44.4% | 24.0% |
| Max Negative | -30.7% | -30.8% | -32.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/6/2026 | 41.0% | 44.4% | 24.0% |
| 2/25/2026 | -2.7% | 8.2% | -4.3% |
| 11/6/2025 | -11.5% | -10.2% | -3.2% |
| 8/6/2025 | -30.7% | -23.8% | -17.7% |
| 5/7/2025 | -8.4% | 6.3% | -4.6% |
| 2/26/2025 | -16.8% | -30.8% | -32.3% |
| 11/8/2024 | -9.7% | -20.0% | -22.8% |
| 8/6/2024 | -7.2% | -15.9% | -4.1% |
| 5/7/2024 | -4.0% | -5.4% | -18.8% |
| 2/23/2024 | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.5% |
| 11/3/2023 | 0.3% | -5.1% | 4.4% |
| 8/1/2023 | -3.2% | -6.5% | 4.4% |
| 4/28/2023 | 5.1% | 3.5% | 6.5% |
| 2/16/2023 | 8.2% | 11.3% | 3.4% |
| 10/28/2022 | 4.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| 7/29/2022 | 3.1% | 5.3% | 8.8% |
| 4/29/2022 | -0.0% | -0.1% | -1.3% |
| 2/18/2022 | 7.6% | 11.0% | -4.4% |
| 11/2/2021 | -10.2% | -4.5% | -22.6% |
| 7/30/2021 | -0.2% | 2.9% | 9.8% |
| 4/29/2021 | 8.9% | 4.9% | 1.7% |
| 2/18/2021 | 7.5% | 18.0% | 23.3% |
| 10/23/2020 | -8.3% | -18.8% | -3.7% |
| 7/24/2020 | 7.4% | 9.4% | 13.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -8.3% | -10.2% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 41.0% | 44.4% | 24.0% |
| Max Negative | -30.7% | -30.8% | -32.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/21/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/02/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 U.S. comparable restaurant sales | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 200.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.01 for Q1 2026 |
| Q2 2026 Diluted earnings per share | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.29 | -53.1% | -30.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.56 for Q1 2026 |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted diluted earnings per share | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.32 | -50.4% | -30.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.59 for Q1 2026 |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 U.S. comparable restaurant sales | 0 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -50.0% | -0.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.01 for Q4 2025 |
| Q1 2026 Diluted earnings per share | 0.54 | 0.56 | 0.59 | 352.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.12 for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted diluted earnings per share | 0.57 | 0.59 | 0.62 | 133.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 0.26 for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 U.S. comparable restaurant sales | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 500.0% | 1.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 0 for 2025 |
| 2026 Diluted earnings per share | 0.7 | 0.78 | 0.85 | 0.0% | Same New | Guidance: 0.78 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted diluted earnings per share | 0.75 | 0.82 | 0.9 | -26.7% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.12 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 185.00 Mil | 190.00 Mil | 195.00 Mil | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 4/26/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lal, Rohit | Direct | Buy | 3122026 | 5.69 | 10,000 | 56,900 | 171,588 | Form | |
| 2 | Kunkel, Julie T | IRA | Buy | 3092026 | 6.46 | 1,000 | 6,460 | 39,183 | Form | |
| 3 | Kunkel, Julie T | IRA | Buy | 11122025 | 6.37 | 1,500 | 9,555 | 32,267 | Form | |
| 4 | Hafner, Patrick M | EVP, Pres Outback Steakhouse | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 6.41 | 4,256 | 27,281 | 51,280 | Form |
| 5 | Christel, Eric C | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 11122025 | 6.38 | 150,000 | 957,000 | 957,000 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lal, Rohit | Direct | Buy | 3122026 | 5.69 | 10,000 | 56,900 | 171,588 | Form | |
| 2 | Kunkel, Julie T | IRA | Buy | 3092026 | 6.46 | 1,000 | 6,460 | 39,183 | Form | |
| 3 | Kunkel, Julie T | IRA | Buy | 11122025 | 6.37 | 1,500 | 9,555 | 32,267 | Form | |
| 4 | Hafner, Patrick M | EVP, Pres Outback Steakhouse | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 6.41 | 4,256 | 27,281 | 51,280 | Form |
| 5 | Christel, Eric C | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 11122025 | 6.38 | 150,000 | 957,000 | 957,000 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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