XPO (XPO)


Market Price (11/3/2026): $194.84 | Market Cap: $22.7 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation

XPO (XPO)


Market Price (11/3/2026): $194.84
Market Cap: $22.7 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2%

Key risks
XPO key risks include [1] its substantial financial leverage and high debt load.

0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.
3 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.2%
4 Key risks
XPO key risks include [1] its substantial financial leverage and high debt load.

XPO in ETFs

Weight = XPO's share of each fund

VTI0.03%
ITOT0.03%
IWB0.03%
IJH0.65%
VB0.25%
IYT2.9%
IJK1.3%
MDYG1.2%
+18 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 11/1/2026

XPO (XPO) stock has lost about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue slightly missed expectations amidst broader sector caution.

While XPO reported a strong adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.70 for fiscal Q3 2026, exceeding analyst estimates of $1.58, its revenue of $2.37 billion slightly fell short of the $2.38 billion consensus. This minor revenue shortfall, coupled with cautious investor sentiment ahead of the earnings release and a "mixed read-through" from a peer's performance (Old Dominion's modest slip in less-than-truckload, or LTL, tons per day), likely contributed to investor hesitation and profit-taking in the broader LTL sector.

2. Analyst price target reductions signaled a more conservative valuation.

Throughout fiscal Q4 2026, several financial analysts reduced their price targets for XPO, indicating a more tempered outlook on the company's future valuation. For instance, in October 2026, Stifel cut its target from $257 to $230, and Truist Securities reduced its target from $240 to $220. These adjustments, despite many firms maintaining "Buy" or "Outperform" ratings, reflected a revised, less bullish expectation for XPO's stock price potential.

Show more
Updated on 11/1/2026

XPO (XPO) stock has lost about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue slightly missed expectations amidst broader sector caution.

While XPO reported a strong adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.70 for fiscal Q3 2026, exceeding analyst estimates of $1.58, its revenue of $2.37 billion slightly fell short of the $2.38 billion consensus. This minor revenue shortfall, coupled with cautious investor sentiment ahead of the earnings release and a "mixed read-through" from a peer's performance (Old Dominion's modest slip in less-than-truckload, or LTL, tons per day), likely contributed to investor hesitation and profit-taking in the broader LTL sector.

2. Analyst price target reductions signaled a more conservative valuation.

Throughout fiscal Q4 2026, several financial analysts reduced their price targets for XPO, indicating a more tempered outlook on the company's future valuation. For instance, in October 2026, Stifel cut its target from $257 to $230, and Truist Securities reduced its target from $240 to $220. These adjustments, despite many firms maintaining "Buy" or "Outperform" ratings, reflected a revised, less bullish expectation for XPO's stock price potential.

3. Profit-taking after significant prior gains.

XPO's stock had experienced substantial appreciation leading up to the specified period, with a year-to-date return of 29.95% and a 12-month increase of 35.56% as of September 24, 2026. This strong performance likely prompted some investors to realize gains during the period, particularly in light of the aforementioned minor revenue miss in fiscal Q3 2026 and potential concerns about overall freight demand in the latter half of fiscal 2026, contributing to the stock's downward trend.

Show less
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →

Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -4.6% change in XPO stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -23.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)731202611022026Change
Stock Price ($)200.97191.72-4.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8,5738,8353.1%
Net Income Margin (%)4.7%5.7%20.8%
P/E Multiple58.244.6-23.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1171170.0%
Cumulative Contribution-4.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2026 to 11/2/2026
ReturnCorrelation
XPO-4.6% 
Market (SPY)0.7%11.2%
Sector (XLI)-5.6%35.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The -12.9% change in XPO stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a -39.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)430202611022026Change
Stock Price ($)220.13191.72-12.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8,2988,8356.5%
Net Income Margin (%)4.2%5.7%35.8%
P/E Multiple74.044.6-39.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1171170.0%
Cumulative Contribution-12.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 11/2/2026
ReturnCorrelation
XPO-12.9% 
Market (SPY)4.9%26.2%
Sector (XLI)-2.6%41.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 33.3% change in XPO stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 38.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)1031202511022026Change
Stock Price ($)143.87191.7233.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8,0678,8359.5%
Net Income Margin (%)4.1%5.7%38.3%
P/E Multiple51.144.6-12.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1181170.9%
Cumulative Contribution33.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 11/2/2026
ReturnCorrelation
XPO33.3% 
Market (SPY)11.2%37.0%
Sector (XLI)10.4%52.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 152.9% change in XPO stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/2/2026 was primarily driven by a 1074.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)1031202311022026Change
Stock Price ($)75.81191.72152.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)7,6358,83515.7%
Net Income Margin (%)0.5%5.7%1074.8%
P/E Multiple237.744.6-81.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)116117-0.9%
Cumulative Contribution152.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2023 to 11/2/2026
ReturnCorrelation
XPO152.9% 
Market (SPY)86.0%49.8%
Sector (XLI)79.4%56.2%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
XPO Return10%-29%163%50%4%41%349%
Peers Return95%-28%62%-3%-15%26%135%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%101%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
XPO Win Rate58%42%83%42%42%45% 
Peers Win Rate72%42%63%52%50%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%36% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
XPO Max Drawdown-22%-46%-32%-21%-38%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown-24%-42%-21%-28%-43%-30% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ODFL, FDX, SAIA, ARCB, TFII. See XPO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/2/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventXPOS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-33.4%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven50.2%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven108 days79 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-18.2%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven22.2%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven15 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-43.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven78.4%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven221 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-58.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven139.5%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven209 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-60.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven154.2%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven721 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-12.4%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven14.1%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven7 days6 days

Compare to ODFL, FDX, SAIA, ARCB, TFII

In The Past

XPO's stock fell -33.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 50.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventXPOS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-33.4%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven50.2%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven108 days79 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-43.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven78.4%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven221 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-58.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven139.5%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven209 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-60.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven154.2%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven721 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-51.2%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven104.8%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven296 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-36.8%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven58.3%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven57 days15 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-58.7%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven142.4%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven149 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-39.6%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven65.7%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven264 days1085 days

Compare to ODFL, FDX, SAIA, ARCB, TFII

In The Past

XPO's stock fell -33.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 50.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About XPO (XPO)

XPO Logistics, Inc. is a freight transportation company offering services primarily across North America and Europe. The company specializes in moving goods for a wide range of industries, playing a crucial role in the supply chain for businesses needing to transport products efficiently.

XPO operates through two main segments. Its North American LTL (Less-Than-Truckload) segment provides comprehensive day-definite freight services for shipments that do not require an entire truck, covering regional, inter-regional, and transcontinental routes within the U.S. and cross-border services with Canada and Mexico. Additionally, the Brokerage and Other Services segment focuses on last-mile logistics for heavy goods sold via e-commerce and retail channels, along with brokering various other freight transportation modes.

The company serves a diverse customer base spanning industries such as industrial and manufacturing, retail and e-commerce, food and beverage, logistics and transportation, and consumer goods. XPO's services are essential for businesses seeking reliable and efficient transportation solutions for their supply chains.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Like FedEx or UPS, but for businesses shipping larger, non-parcel freight.

Think of it as the Uber or Lyft for commercial freight, efficiently combining smaller business shipments into shared trucks.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) Freight Transportation: Provides efficient transportation for smaller freight shipments that do not require an entire truck, across regional, inter-regional, and international routes.
  • Last Mile Logistics: Specializes in the final delivery of heavy goods purchased through e-commerce, omnichannel retail, and direct-to-consumer channels.
  • Freight Brokerage: Arranges transportation for various non-core freight modes by connecting shippers with carriers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

XPO (symbol: XPO) primarily serves other businesses rather than individuals. The provided background information does not identify specific major customer companies by name. However, XPO provides its freight transportation and logistics services to customers across a broad range of industries, including:

  • Industrial and manufacturing
  • Retail and e-commerce
  • Food and beverage
  • Logistics and transportation
  • Consumer goods

AI Analysis | Feedback

null

AI Analysis | Feedback

Mario Harik, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Mario Harik joined XPO in 2011 as Chief Information Officer and was among the company's first employees. He previously served as President of XPO's North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) business. Prior to XPO, he was chief information officer with Oakleaf Waste Management, which was acquired by Waste Management in July 2011. He also held positions as chief technology officer with Tallan, Inc., and was a co-founder and chief architect of web and voice applications with G3 Analyst. Mr. Harik also serves as chairman of XPO's board of directors and is on the board of directors of QXO, Inc..

Kyle Wismans, Chief Financial Officer

Kyle Wismans has led XPO's finance organization since 2023. He joined XPO in 2019 as senior vice president, financial planning and analysis, and later served as senior vice president, revenue management and finance. Before XPO, Mr. Wismans spent over a decade as an executive with General Electric Company and Baker Hughes, holding leadership roles such as head of global financial planning and analysis for two divisions and chief financial officer for a global GE business. He also held senior positions on GE's global audit staff.

Dave Bates, Chief Operating Officer

Dave Bates is responsible for all day-to-day operations within XPO's North American LTL business, encompassing service quality, customer experience, network optimization, workforce productivity, and sales. He joined XPO in 2023, following 27 years with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., where he spent 12 years as senior vice president, operations.

Wendy Cassity, Chief Legal Officer

Wendy Cassity holds a bachelor's degree in English and History from the University of Arizona and a Juris Doctorate from Columbia Law School.

Ali Faghri, Chief Strategy Officer

Ali Faghri is responsible for XPO's strategy, analysis of growth opportunities, and oversight of the company's engagement with the investment community. Before joining XPO, he was a prominent Wall Street analyst specializing in the automotive sector for over a decade, holding senior roles with global investment firms, including managing director at Guggenheim Partners, LLC.

AI Analysis | Feedback

```html

The key risks to XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) primarily revolve around the cyclical nature of the freight transportation industry, significant financial leverage, and the execution of its large-scale operational improvement initiatives.

  1. Macroeconomic Environment and Freight Volume Declines: A persistently soft freight market and broader macroeconomic downturns pose the most significant immediate threat to XPO. The company's core business, particularly its North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) and brokerage services, is highly sensitive to economic activity. Analysts have projected potential volume declines for XPO, which, given the fixed-cost nature of the LTL business, could significantly erode profitability and challenge the company's operating ratio improvement goals.

  2. Financial Leverage and Debt Load: XPO carries a substantial debt load, which is a key financial risk, especially in an environment of higher interest rates. The company's debt-to-equity ratio indicates a notable reliance on debt financing. This high debt level translates into significant fixed interest expenses, impacting the company's financial flexibility and profitability.

  3. Operational Execution of Capital Investments: XPO is currently undertaking a major "North American LTL action plan" that involves substantial capital investments to modernize and expand its network, with planned gross capital expenditures in the hundreds of millions for 2025. There is a risk that if these investments do not align perfectly with customer demand or if the new service centers fail to generate the expected yield and efficiency, the company's profitability and return on investment could suffer.

```

AI Analysis | Feedback

The continued expansion of vertically integrated logistics networks by major e-commerce and retail companies, such as Amazon, which increasingly internalize their freight transportation and last-mile delivery services for heavy goods. This trend poses a threat by potentially reducing demand for XPO's services from these key customer segments, and these companies could eventually leverage their scaled infrastructure to offer logistics services to external clients, becoming direct competitors to XPO's North American LTL and Brokerage and Other Services segments.

AI Analysis | Feedback

XPO Logistics, Inc. (symbol: XPO) operates in several addressable markets for its main products and services. These include North American less-than-truckload (LTL) freight services, freight brokerage, and last-mile logistics for heavy goods.

North American LTL Services

The North America less-than-truckload (LTL) market generated an estimated revenue of approximately $84.63 billion (USD 84,628.9 million) in 2024. This market is projected to reach approximately $120.55 billion (US$ 120,553.6 million) by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% from 2025 to 2030.

Brokerage and Other Services (Freight Brokerage)

The addressable market for freight brokerage in North America was approximately $18.11 billion (USD 18.11 billion) in 2024. Globally, the freight brokerage market was valued at approximately $51.7 billion (USD 51.7 billion) in 2023 and is estimated to grow to approximately $85.9 billion (USD 85.9 billion) by 2032, at a CAGR of 6% between 2024 and 2032. North America accounted for 32% of the global freight brokerage market revenue share in 2023.

Brokerage and Other Services (Last-Mile Logistics for Heavy Goods)

The global last-mile delivery market for e-commerce of bulky items is valued at approximately $23.35 billion (USD 23.35 billion) in 2026 and is expected to reach approximately $49.56 billion (USD 49.56 billion) by 2035, with a CAGR of 8.85% from 2026 to 2035. North America is the dominant regional market, holding approximately 45% of this global share.

AI Analysis | Feedback

XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next two to three years, primarily stemming from strategic initiatives within its North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment.

The expected drivers of future revenue growth include:

  • Accelerated Yield Growth and Pricing Initiatives: XPO has consistently demonstrated its ability to achieve higher yields, excluding fuel, and implement strong pricing strategies. This focus on pricing discipline, coupled with delivering enhanced value to customers, is expected to continue driving revenue growth. For instance, in Q4 2023, the company reported yield growth, excluding fuel, of 10.3%, and in Q4 2025, LTL yield, excluding fuel, increased by 5.2% year-over-year.
  • Enhanced Service Quality and Customer Expansion through LTL 2.0 Plan: XPO's "LTL 2.0 growth plan" prioritizes delivering best-in-class service, which directly translates into increased customer business and higher shipment volumes. Improvements in metrics like the damage claims ratio (reaching a new company record of 0.3% in Q4 2023) lead to greater customer satisfaction and loyalty. The company aims to provide premium customer service and is seeing increased shipments per day as a result.
  • Strategic Network Expansion and Capacity Investments: XPO is actively investing in expanding its LTL network by adding service centers (doors), equipment, and drivers. This includes increasing its door count by approximately 1% to 2% in 2025, building on a 2% increase in 2024, and acquiring 28 service centers from Yellow Corporation. These investments are crucial for accommodating growing freight volumes, improving transit times, enhancing service reliability, and attracting new customers.
  • Leveraging Technology and AI for Productivity and Efficiency: The company is utilizing proprietary technology, including artificial intelligence, to enhance network efficiency, optimize pricing, improve labor productivity, and elevate the customer experience. These technological advancements are expected to drive structural cost reductions and productivity gains, supporting margin expansion and allowing XPO to scale effectively with volume recovery.
  • Insourcing of Linehaul Miles: XPO's strategy includes reducing linehaul miles outsourced to third-party carriers. By insourcing these miles, the company increases its network efficiency and gains greater control over its operations. This move supports incremental margins and can contribute to more competitive service offerings, thereby fostering revenue growth. The company reduced outsourced miles from 25.2% in 2020 to 6.7% in 2025.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • XPO authorized a new $750 million share repurchase plan in March 2025, replacing a previous authorization that had $503 million remaining as of March 26, 2025.
  • The company repurchased $50 million in common stock during the third quarter of 2025.
  • XPO did not repurchase shares in 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024.

Share Issuance

  • In 2021, XPO exchanged remaining preferred shares for 0.1 million shares of common stock.
  • Also in 2021, 9.8 million warrants were exchanged for 9.2 million shares of common stock to simplify the equity capital structure.
  • The company's 2016 incentive plan was amended in May 2022 to increase the number of authorized shares for stock-based compensation awards by 2.3 million.

Outbound Investments

  • XPO completed the spin-off of GXO Logistics, Inc. in August 2021.
  • XPO completed the sale of its North American intermodal operation in March 2022.
  • XPO completed the spin-off of RXO, Inc. in November 2022.
  • In December 2023, XPO acquired 28 LTL service centers and assumed leases for two additional locations from Yellow Corporation as part of the Yellow Asset Acquisition.

Capital Expenditures

  • XPO's gross capital expenditures were 14.6% of revenue in 2024.
  • For 2025, XPO anticipates gross capital expenditures to be between $600 million and $700 million, with a focus on expanding network capacity and enhancing operational efficiencies.
  • For 2026, XPO expects total company gross capital expenditures to be between $500 million and $600 million. These investments primarily target expanding network capacity, improving service quality, and driving operational efficiencies, including substantial additions to its tractor, trailer, and service center fleet.

Better Bets vs. XPO (XPO)

Peer Outperformance in Cargo Ground Transportation

XPO has outperformed 93% of its 15 Cargo Ground Transportation peers over 5Y. Cargo Ground Transportation ranks 10th of 23 industries in Industrials by median 5Y return.
Share of Cargo Ground Transportation constituents that XPO has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
44%
of 18 industry peers · 33.3% return
3Y
94%
of 16 industry peers · 141.1% return
5Y
93%
of 15 industry peers · 263.5% return
No Cargo Ground Transportation peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten XPO by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Cargo Ground Transportation is XPO's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Construction & Engineering 29 -8.2%92.7%152.3% STRL 1265% · FIX 1201% · AGX 751%
Marine Transportation 5 47.3%44.2%146.6% MATX 183% · KEX 151%
Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment 13 16.0%61.2%102.0% ALSN 260% · WAB 224% · CAT 221%
Aerospace & Defense 52 -12.4%62.8%70.6% ATI 975% · FTAI 967% · HWM 604%
Trading Companies & Distributors 19 20.9%40.4%58.3% DXPE 413% · AIT 222% · URI 216%
Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components 72 6.2%55.1%36.5% CRS 888% · MLI 337% · SYM 271%
Rail Transportation 7 33.9%56.1%34.2% CSX 55% · UNP 43% · NSC 34%
Diversified Support Services 32 21.0%43.3%33.6% CXW 240% · OPLN 169% · CACI 137%
Building Products 32 -6.2%13.0%24.0% GFF 368% · TT 141% · JCI 118%
Cargo Ground Transportation ← 16 33.6%10.8%9.9% R 273% · XPO 263% · ARCB 27%
Electrical Components & Equipment 37 -6.2%74.9%5.4% POWL 1808% · VRT 796% · BE 511%
Industrial Conglomerates 17 14.6%-0.6%-5.4% CSW 104% · CSL 81% · DD 67%
Office Services & Supplies 9 25.6%20.4%-11.2% PBI 174% · TILE 165% · HNI 55%
Data Processing & Outsourced Services 6 -16.4%0.3%-14.2% EXLS 64% · BR 13% · G -13%
Research & Consulting Services 13 4.9%-10.7%-19.3% HURN 270% · FCN 31% · BAH 11%
Agricultural & Farm Machinery 16 12.4%-5.6%-21.0% DE 101% · TTC 22% · AGCO 6%
Security & Alarm Services 9 -54.3%16.3%-27.6% BCO 67%
Environmental & Facilities Services 29 -33.0%23.7%-29.1% GEO 228% · CLH 153% · RSG 95%
Passenger Airlines 11 1.0%52.5%-29.7% LTM 2790% · UAL 128% · DAL 115%
Air Freight & Logistics 12 -24.7%-8.8%-39.0% FDX 86% · EXPD 74% · CHRW 53%
Human Resource & Employment Services 22 21.2%-9.1%-42.3% ADP 48% · FA 28% · PAYX 9%
Passenger Ground Transportation 3 -18.8%39.7%-63.3% UBER 56% · LYFT -63% · CAR -67%
Airport Services 4 -53.4%-61.7%-86.5% JOBY -51%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

XPOODFLFDXSAIAARCBTFIIMedian
NameXPO Old Domi.FedEx Saia ArcBest TFI Inte. 
Mkt Price194.84176.24317.30354.00130.9695.87185.54
Mkt Cap22.836.674.99.52.97.916.1
Rev LTM8,8355,60395,3313,5354,2048,3856,994
Op Inc LTM9351,4486,392378129624780
FCF LTM6571,115-279173575575
FCF 3Y Avg32979--43111652111
CFO LTM1,1321,394-618282895895
CFO 3Y Avg9831,514-607290985983

Growth & Margins

XPOODFLFDXSAIAARCBTFIIMedian
NameXPO Old Domi.FedEx Saia ArcBest TFI Inte. 
Rev Chg LTM9.5%-0.6%7.6%9.3%3.7%4.2%5.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.1%-2.0%2.5%8.4%-3.2%3.9%3.2%
Rev Chg Q12.4%10.4%2.7%17.0%15.9%13.4%12.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.1%2.7%0.6%4.2%4.0%3.2%3.2%
Op Inc Chg LTM32.4%1.1%4.4%-2.9%12.1%2.3%3.3%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg26.0%-5.0%3.9%-4.0%-17.1%-4.3%-4.2%
Op Mgn LTM10.6%25.8%6.7%10.7%3.1%7.4%9.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.4%26.4%6.8%12.8%3.5%8.1%8.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.7%1.3%-0.3%-0.3%0.7%0.3%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM12.8%24.9%-17.5%6.7%10.7%12.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.8%26.4%-18.3%6.9%12.0%12.0%
FCF/Rev LTM7.4%19.9%-7.9%4.1%6.9%7.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.2%17.1%--1.7%2.6%7.9%2.6%

Valuation

XPOODFLFDXSAIAARCBTFIIMedian
NameXPO Old Domi.FedEx Saia ArcBest TFI Inte. 
Mkt Cap22.836.674.99.52.97.916.1
P/S2.66.50.82.70.70.91.8
P/Op Inc24.425.311.725.122.712.623.6
P/EBIT25.925.211.524.883.613.025.0
P/E45.333.619.233.5179.622.133.5
P/CFO20.126.3-15.310.48.815.3
Total Yield2.2%3.6%6.6%3.0%0.9%6.5%3.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.6%1.4%0.0%0.4%1.9%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.5%2.5%--0.1%4.5%7.1%2.5%
D/E0.20.00.50.00.20.40.2
Net D/E0.2-0.00.30.00.10.40.1

Returns

XPOODFLFDXSAIAARCBTFIIMedian
NameXPO Old Domi.FedEx Saia ArcBest TFI Inte. 
1M Rtn4.7%-2.3%9.3%0.8%-1.2%-19.4%-0.2%
3M Rtn-1.1%-16.5%3.0%-1.7%-4.7%-28.6%-3.2%
6M Rtn-2.6%-8.0%11.6%-12.6%13.4%-28.3%-5.3%
12M Rtn35.4%26.3%58.7%21.0%77.1%8.6%30.9%
3Y Rtn145.0%-8.6%70.3%-8.8%10.8%-11.9%1.1%
1M Excs Rtn7.1%-0.0%11.6%3.2%1.1%-17.0%2.1%
3M Excs Rtn-1.6%-17.0%4.2%-2.9%-6.6%-29.5%-4.8%
6M Excs Rtn-7.4%-12.8%6.9%-17.3%8.7%-33.0%-10.1%
12M Excs Rtn32.6%18.7%51.4%14.4%74.7%1.0%25.6%
3Y Excs Rtn98.3%-85.3%2.6%-88.2%-31.2%-89.7%-58.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL)4,8324,8994,6714,6454,125
European Transportation3,3243,1733,0733,0733,077
Corporate000  
Total8,1568,0727,7447,7187,202


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20202019201820172016
Transportation507752646539438
Logistics140241216249210
Corporate-256-172-158-165-159
Total391821704623488


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20132012201120102009
Corporate1,009372982617
Freight Brokerage8711105  
Expedited Transportation1933522  
Freight Forwarding602323  
Eliminations-1,353-127-21-24-17
Bounce   52
Concert Group Logistics   2524
Express-1   2523
Total7804131285749


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$191.72 
Market Cap ($ Bil)22.4 
First Trading Date10/07/2003 
Distance from 52W High-16.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$183.63$196.94
DMA Trenddownup
Distance from DMA4.4%-2.7%
 3M1YR
Volatility30.7%41.3%
Downside Capture87.57111.42
Upside Capture62.96139.53
Correlation (S&P 500)8.6%37.1%
XPO Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.200.040.350.791.201.45
Up Beta0.35-0.430.220.861.251.59
Down Beta-1.98-1.41-1.240.140.831.24
Up Capture121%49%62%75%176%368%
Bmk +ve Days12182862130427
Stock +ve Days14223060129382
Down Capture-5%64%103%120%112%108%
Bmk -ve Days10253664121325
Stock -ve Days8213466122368

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with XPO
XPO41.2%41.3%0.93-
Sector ETF (XLI)10.7%17.3%0.4252.4%
Equity (SPY)11.6%12.8%0.5737.0%
Gold (GLD)-2.3%28.6%-0.0915.6%
Commodities (DBC)43.1%20.9%1.60-16.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)11.0%13.7%0.5033.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-28.8%43.6%-0.667.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with XPO
XPO29.6%46.9%0.70-
Sector ETF (XLI)11.7%17.6%0.5059.7%
Equity (SPY)12.0%17.1%0.5256.2%
Gold (GLD)16.5%19.0%0.695.3%
Commodities (DBC)8.4%19.6%0.314.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.1%18.9%-0.0542.7%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)4.1%51.6%0.2623.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with XPO
XPO31.7%47.0%0.76-
Sector ETF (XLI)13.4%20.1%0.5860.4%
Equity (SPY)15.2%17.9%0.7257.0%
Gold (GLD)11.6%16.5%0.571.6%
Commodities (DBC)7.8%18.1%0.3415.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.4%20.7%0.2243.6%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)61.7%66.3%1.0112.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6.5 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302026-8.0%
Average Daily Volume1.1 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.9 days
Basic Shares Quantity117.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares5.6%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 11/3/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20260.7%  
7/30/2026-0.1%0.4%-3.9%
4/30/20261.6%-2.4%-1.1%
2/5/20263.4%12.4%5.1%
10/30/20259.0%10.9%15.0%
7/31/2025-9.1%-7.0%-1.6%
4/30/20258.9%10.6%20.6%
2/6/20257.8%6.2%-20.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive181716
# Negative778
Median Positive3.8%7.0%12.1%
Median Negative-4.0%-5.9%-10.0%
Max Positive18.9%18.5%30.5%
Max Negative-14.0%-14.1%-21.2%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20260.7%  
7/30/2026-0.1%0.4%-3.9%
4/30/20261.6%-2.4%-1.1%
2/5/20263.4%12.4%5.1%
10/30/20259.0%10.9%15.0%
7/31/2025-9.1%-7.0%-1.6%
4/30/20258.9%10.6%20.6%
2/6/20257.8%6.2%-20.5%
10/30/202411.4%14.9%24.9%
8/1/20240.8%-4.6%0.2%
5/3/20243.3%3.7%-6.0%
2/7/202418.9%18.5%30.5%
10/30/202315.1%18.1%28.3%
8/4/20234.2%7.0%11.2%
5/4/20233.4%6.6%11.6%
2/8/2023-14.0%-14.1%-21.2%
10/31/20222.1%9.0%22.2%
8/4/2022-2.3%-5.9%-14.3%
5/9/20224.1%0.1%4.8%
2/8/20228.3%8.2%12.5%
11/2/2021-7.6%-10.7%-14.0%
7/28/20212.4%3.7%6.7%
5/3/20210.4%5.1%3.9%
2/10/2021-4.0%-3.5%2.0%
11/5/2020-2.2%3.2%21.6%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive181716
# Negative778
Median Positive3.8%7.0%12.1%
Median Negative-4.0%-5.9%-10.0%
Max Positive18.9%18.5%30.5%
Max Negative-14.0%-14.1%-21.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202610/29/202610-Q
06/30/202607/30/202610-Q
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202502/05/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202504/30/202510-Q
12/31/202402/07/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/03/202410-Q
12/31/202302/08/202410-K
09/30/202310/30/202310-Q
06/30/202308/04/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/13/202310-K
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202610/29/202610-Q
06/30/202607/30/202610-Q
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202502/05/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202504/30/202510-Q
12/31/202402/07/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/03/202410-Q
12/31/202302/08/202410-K
09/30/202310/30/202310-Q
06/30/202308/04/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/13/202310-K
09/30/202211/02/202210-Q
06/30/202208/08/202210-Q
03/31/202205/10/202210-Q
12/31/202102/16/202210-K
09/30/202111/03/202110-Q
06/30/202108/04/202110-Q
03/31/202105/04/202110-Q
12/31/202002/12/202110-K
09/30/202011/06/202010-Q
06/30/202008/03/202010-Q
03/31/202005/05/202010-Q
12/31/201902/10/202010-K

Insider Activity

Updated 10/2/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Bates, David JChief Operating OfficerDirectSell10022026177.932,615465,28311,052,923Form
2Wismans, KyleChief Financial OfficerDirectSell10022026175.47750131,6028,416,594Form
3Bates, David JChief Operating OfficerDirectSell9152026179.412,615469,16011,614,169Form
4Wismans, KyleChief Financial OfficerDirectSell9152026178.52750133,8908,696,780Form
5Brown, Christopher MichaelChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell8122026201.943,750757,2626,261,046Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Bates, David JChief Operating OfficerDirectSell10022026177.932,615465,28311,052,923Form
2Wismans, KyleChief Financial OfficerDirectSell10022026175.47750131,6028,416,594Form
3Bates, David JChief Operating OfficerDirectSell9152026179.412,615469,16011,614,169Form
4Wismans, KyleChief Financial OfficerDirectSell9152026178.52750133,8908,696,780Form
5Brown, Christopher MichaelChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell8122026201.943,750757,2626,261,046Form
6Brown, Christopher MichaelChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell8122026201.411,250251,7627,000,005Form
7Landry, Allison DirectSell5292026215.612,400517,4721,045,509Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Nov 3, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
MFN Partners Management, LP$2.2 Bil46.6%10Hold13F
One Madison Group LLC$65.5 Mil7.6%28TRIM -7.5%13F
Durable Capital Partners LP$571.2 Mil5.9%37TRIM -25.7%13F
D1 Capital Partners L.P.$250.5 Mil2.2%44TRIM -36.7%13F
Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc.$62.3 Mil2.0%44New13F
Greenstone Partners & Co., LLC$5.4 Mil1.4%9TRIM -85.7%13F
Hawk Ridge Capital Management LP$17.6 Mil0.6%48TRIM -53.4%13F
Partners Group Holding AG$6.0 Mil0.4%50TRIM -26.1%13F
Slate Path Capital LP$19.6 Mil0.3%44New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc.$62.3 Mil2.0%44New13F
Slate Path Capital LP$19.6 Mil0.3%44New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Forest Avenue Capital Management LP$63.5 Mil4.2%22ExitedDec 31, 202513F
GCM Grosvenor Holdings, LLC$7.4 Mil1.0%22ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Greenstone Partners & Co., LLC$5.4 Mil1.4%9TRIM -85.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Hawk Ridge Capital Management LP$17.6 Mil0.6%48TRIM -53.4%Mar 31, 202613F
D1 Capital Partners L.P.$250.5 Mil2.2%44TRIM -36.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Partners Group Holding AG$6.0 Mil0.4%50TRIM -26.1%Mar 31, 202613F
Durable Capital Partners LP$571.2 Mil5.9%37TRIM -25.7%Mar 31, 202613F
One Madison Group LLC$65.5 Mil7.6%28TRIM -7.5%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
MFN Partners Management, LP$2.2 Bil46.6%10Hold13F
Durable Capital Partners LP$571.2 Mil5.9%37TRIM -25.7%13F
D1 Capital Partners L.P.$250.5 Mil2.2%44TRIM -36.7%13F
One Madison Group LLC$65.5 Mil7.6%28TRIM -7.5%13F
Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc.$62.3 Mil2.0%44New13F
Slate Path Capital LP$19.6 Mil0.3%44New13F
Hawk Ridge Capital Management LP$17.6 Mil0.6%48TRIM -53.4%13F
Partners Group Holding AG$6.0 Mil0.4%50TRIM -26.1%13F
Greenstone Partners & Co., LLC$5.4 Mil1.4%9TRIM -85.7%13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 11/2/2026