Saia (SAIA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $331.11 | Market Cap: $8.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Saia (SAIA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $331.11Market Cap: $8.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.3% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -66%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SAIA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the movement of Saia's (SAIA) stock during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat: Saia reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 30, 2025, significantly surpassing analysts' expectations with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.81 against a forecast of $2.53, an 11.07% surprise. Revenue also exceeded projections, reaching $839.6 million. This positive earnings report led to an increase of 3.28% in Saia's stock during pre-market trading.
2. Rebound in November LTL Operating Data: On December 2, 2025, Saia released mixed less-than-truckload (LTL) operating data for October and November 2025. While October saw declines in LTL shipments and tonnage per workday, November showed a notable positive reversal, with LTL shipments per workday increasing by 2.6% and tonnage per workday rising by 1.8%. This reported turnaround suggested improving business conditions and contributed to the stock jumping 2.8% in the morning session on December 2, 2025, and rising 4.4% midday.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SAIA Return | 94% | 86% | -38% | 109% | 4% | -31% | 238% |
| Peers Return | 51% | 53% | -21% | 62% | 8% | -8% | 191% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SAIA Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 33% | 67% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 65% | 43% | 63% | 48% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SAIA Max Drawdown | -31% | -4% | -49% | -1% | -16% | -48% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -5% | -37% | -3% | -11% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FDX, ODFL, JBHT, XPO, TFII. See SAIA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SAIA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 390 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -38.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -39.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 258 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -76.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 324.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1559 days | 1480 days |
Compare to FDX, ODFL, JBHT, XPO, TFII
In The Past
Saia's stock fell -53.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/17/2021. A -53.1% loss requires a 113.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SAIA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 04302024 | SAIA | Saia | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 20.2% | -38.5% | -40.4% |
| 10312023 | SAIA | Saia | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 10.7% | 37.1% | 0.0% |
| 12312022 | SAIA | Saia | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 63.3% | 109.0% | -0.5% |
| 05312022 | SAIA | Saia | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.6% | 43.8% | -13.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 04302024 | SAIA | Saia | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 20.2% | -38.5% | -40.4% |
| 10312023 | SAIA | Saia | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 10.7% | 37.1% | 0.0% |
| 12312022 | SAIA | Saia | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 63.3% | 109.0% | -0.5% |
| 05312022 | SAIA | Saia | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.6% | 43.8% | -13.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Saia
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 169.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.3 |
| Rev LTM | 8,057 |
| Op Inc LTM | 766 |
| FCF LTM | 737 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 518 |
| CFO LTM | 1,209 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,278 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.3 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 18.0 |
| P/E | 25.2 |
| P/CFO | 10.4 |
| Total Yield | 5.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -19.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 21.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 7.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -34.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -46.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4282025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5022022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | RAMU RAYMOND R | Exec. VP & Chief Customer Off. | 11202025 | Sell | 266.57 | 1,000 | 266,570 | 1,306,726 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |