Tearsheet

Saia (SAIA)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $328.14 | Market Cap: $8.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation

Saia (SAIA)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $328.14
Market Cap: $8.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -30%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.3%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.
  Key risks
SAIA key risks include [1] squeezed operating margins from rising costs that have outpaced revenue growth and [2] a strained balance sheet from high capital expenditures and increased debt tied to its aggressive network expansion.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -61%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -30%
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.3%
4 Key risks
SAIA key risks include [1] squeezed operating margins from rising costs that have outpaced revenue growth and [2] a strained balance sheet from high capital expenditures and increased debt tied to its aggressive network expansion.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SAIA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining Saia's (SAIA) stock movement from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Beat

Saia reported robust third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025, significantly surpassing analyst expectations for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and slightly exceeding revenue forecasts. This outperformance, despite flat year-over-year revenue, was driven partly by a one-time real estate gain and operational efficiencies, leading to increased investor optimism and a pre-market stock rise. 2. Positive Analyst Price Target Revisions and Ratings

Following its strong Q3 earnings and ongoing strategic developments, several investment firms raised their price targets and maintained positive ratings for SAIA. For example, BofA Securities increased its price target to $367 from $322, citing a higher 2026 earnings multiple, while Stifel raised its target to $343 from $292, acknowledging Saia's market share growth and pricing opportunities.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SAIA Return94%86%-38%109%4%-25%265%
Peers Return39%75%-24%61%-1%1%201%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SAIA Win Rate75%67%33%67%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate63%72%37%62%45%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SAIA Max Drawdown-31%-4%-49%-1%-16%-48% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-3%-35%-6%-18%-30% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ODFL, XPO, ARCB, KNX, JBHT. See SAIA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSAIAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-53.1%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven113.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven390 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-38.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven48 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-39.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven65.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven258 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-76.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven324.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,559 days1,480 days

Compare to FDX, ODFL, JBHT, XPO, SAIA


In The Past

Saia's stock fell -53.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/17/2021. A -53.1% loss requires a 113.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Saia (SAIA)

Better Bets than Saia (SAIA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SAIA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.6%5.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%
SAIA_4302024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302024SAIASaiaQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
20.2%-38.5%-40.4%
SAIA_10312023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312023SAIASaiaQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
10.7%37.1%0.0%
SAIA_12312022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312022SAIASaiaDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
63.3%109.0%-0.5%
SAIA_5312022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy05312022SAIASaiaDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
18.6%43.8%-13.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.6%5.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%
SAIA_4302024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302024SAIASaiaQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
20.2%-38.5%-40.4%
SAIA_10312023_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312023SAIASaiaQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
10.7%37.1%0.0%
SAIA_12312022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312022SAIASaiaDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
63.3%109.0%-0.5%
SAIA_5312022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy05312022SAIASaiaDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
18.6%43.8%-13.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Saia

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SAIAODFLXPOARCBKNXJBHTMedian
NameSaia Old Domi.XPO ArcBest Knight-S.JB Hunt . 
Mkt Price328.00155.73145.1079.5252.66194.10150.41
Mkt Cap8.832.717.11.88.518.712.9
Rev LTM3,2335,5758,0674,0397,47812,0496,526
Op Inc LTM3901,391706111321826548
FCF LTM-1492123266-62790149
FCF 3Y Avg-97827-20683-238840
CFO LTM6221,4619492418181,610883
CFO 3Y Avg5831,5508083049471,647877

Growth & Margins

SAIAODFLXPOARCBKNXJBHTMedian
NameSaia Old Domi.XPO ArcBest Knight-S.JB Hunt . 
Rev Chg LTM2.0%-5.9%-0.3%-5.3%-0.0%-1.6%-0.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.7%-3.3%38.4%-5.8%0.1%-6.3%-1.6%
Rev Chg Q-0.3%-4.3%2.8%-1.4%2.7%-0.5%-0.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.1%-1.1%0.7%-0.4%0.7%-0.1%-0.1%
Op Mgn LTM12.1%24.9%8.8%2.7%4.3%6.9%7.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.5%26.9%8.0%3.8%4.8%7.2%7.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%-0.4%0.1%-0.1%0.0%0.2%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM19.2%26.2%11.8%6.0%10.9%13.4%12.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg19.0%26.8%10.1%7.1%13.1%13.1%13.1%
FCF/Rev LTM-0.4%16.5%2.9%1.6%-0.8%6.6%2.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2.9%14.3%-2.6%1.9%-0.0%3.2%1.0%

Valuation

SAIAODFLXPOARCBKNXJBHTMedian
NameSaia Old Domi.XPO ArcBest Knight-S.JB Hunt . 
Mkt Cap8.832.717.11.88.518.712.9
P/S2.55.31.90.40.91.11.5
P/EBIT20.521.222.911.118.315.519.4
P/E28.227.945.916.345.122.528.1
P/CFO12.920.216.16.67.88.010.4
Total Yield3.5%4.4%2.2%6.8%3.6%5.8%4.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.8%0.0%0.7%1.4%1.3%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.8%2.2%-1.8%3.8%-0.1%2.8%1.1%
D/E0.00.00.30.30.50.10.2
Net D/E0.00.00.20.20.50.10.2

Returns

SAIAODFLXPOARCBKNXJBHTMedian
NameSaia Old Domi.XPO ArcBest Knight-S.JB Hunt . 
1M Rtn25.0%20.1%13.4%27.2%26.3%21.1%23.1%
3M Rtn6.4%10.0%11.8%13.7%26.7%44.7%12.8%
6M Rtn25.9%0.2%20.3%17.0%23.9%40.4%22.1%
12M Rtn-38.4%-21.2%-8.1%-24.5%-0.9%10.7%-14.7%
3Y Rtn43.1%7.4%300.6%8.3%0.6%11.9%10.1%
1M Excs Rtn24.3%19.4%12.7%26.4%25.5%20.4%22.3%
3M Excs Rtn2.8%8.2%8.9%10.3%26.5%42.7%9.6%
6M Excs Rtn13.5%-12.2%7.9%4.6%11.5%28.1%9.7%
12M Excs Rtn-49.0%-32.9%-18.2%-37.3%-14.6%-1.9%-25.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-30.3%-63.5%222.3%-66.3%-71.5%-61.4%-62.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Transportation services2,8812,7922,2891,8221,787
Total2,8812,7922,2891,8221,787


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Transportation services355    
Total355    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,878,009
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202520.4%
Average Daily Volume407,371
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.61
Basic Shares Quantity26,745,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/20252.2%2.0%5.7%
7/25/20257.0%-3.1%2.7%
4/25/2025-30.7%-32.2%-25.4%
2/3/2025-2.0%2.0%-17.3%
10/25/202411.4%17.9%30.7%
7/26/2024-18.9%-19.2%-17.7%
4/26/2024-21.0%-25.2%-26.3%
2/2/202414.3%18.3%24.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151616
# Negative988
Median Positive7.0%11.1%13.1%
Median Negative-2.9%-4.5%-11.9%
Max Positive14.9%25.9%30.7%
Max Negative-30.7%-32.2%-26.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025428202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024224202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022502202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0RAMU RAYMOND RExec. VP & Chief Customer Off.11202025Sell266.571,000266,5701,306,726Form