McDonald's (MCD)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $276.45 | Market Cap: $195.1 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
McDonald's (MCD)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $276.45Market Cap: $195.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.3%, Dividend Yield is 2.7% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.5 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.0x Key risksMCD key risks include potential damage to its brand reputation and consumer trust from [1] failing to adapt to evolving consumer preferences for healthier options and [2] negative perception caused by boycotts or food safety issues. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.3%, Dividend Yield is 2.7% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 46% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.5 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 7.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -36%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -68% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.0x |
| Key risksMCD key risks include potential damage to its brand reputation and consumer trust from [1] failing to adapt to evolving consumer preferences for healthier options and [2] negative perception caused by boycotts or food safety issues. |
Qualitative Assessment
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McDonald's (MCD) stock has gained about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. McDonald's reported strong third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings that surpassed analyst expectations, signaling robust profitability despite challenges in the U.S. market. The company announced adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.57, an 11% increase year-over-year, which exceeded the consensus analyst estimate of $3.38 per share. This earnings beat was a primary driver for the stock's positive movement. Consolidated operating income also increased by 7%, with adjusted operating income rising 8% for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. While U.S. comparable sales declined 0.2% in fiscal Q3 2026, global comparable sales increased by 1.5%.
2. The company demonstrated its commitment to shareholder returns by increasing its quarterly cash dividend. In September, McDonald's declared a 4% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, raising it to $1.93 per share. This marked the 50th consecutive yearly increase, underscoring the company's strong financial health and consistent capital return strategy.
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McDonald's (MCD) stock has gained about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. McDonald's reported strong third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings that surpassed analyst expectations, signaling robust profitability despite challenges in the U.S. market. The company announced adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.57, an 11% increase year-over-year, which exceeded the consensus analyst estimate of $3.38 per share. This earnings beat was a primary driver for the stock's positive movement. Consolidated operating income also increased by 7%, with adjusted operating income rising 8% for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. While U.S. comparable sales declined 0.2% in fiscal Q3 2026, global comparable sales increased by 1.5%.
2. The company demonstrated its commitment to shareholder returns by increasing its quarterly cash dividend. In September, McDonald's declared a 4% increase in its quarterly cash dividend, raising it to $1.93 per share. This marked the 50th consecutive yearly increase, underscoring the company's strong financial health and consistent capital return strategy.
3. McDonald's unveiled its "NEXT" strategy during its Investor Day on September 23, 2026, outlining ambitious long-term growth and productivity targets. This strategic initiative aims to drive durable comparable sales and guest count growth, gain market share, and enhance restaurant productivity. A key component of this strategy includes approximately $8.5 billion in total "NEXT" partnering support through 2036, with about $5 billion allocated through 2030, provided through a combination of rent relief and capital support for franchisees. This forward-looking plan provided investors with a clear vision for sustained growth.
4. Despite initial U.S. comparable sales softness, the company saw an improvement in traffic trends by the end of fiscal Q3 2026 due to targeted value initiatives. Although U.S. comparable sales for the entire third quarter ended September 30, 2026, showed a 0.2% decline, management noted "improvement as the quarter progressed following our intervention on value." U.S. comparable sales, which were slightly negative in July and August, turned positive in September and October as McDonald's restored regional and national in-app deals and shifted marketing efforts towards value meals. The company is also testing new value-oriented meal bundles for a planned national launch in 2027, addressing consumer demand amid broader macroeconomic pressures like the high cost of living.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.9% change in MCD stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 2.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 268.73 | 276.52 | 2.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,445 | 27,781 | 1.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.6% | 32.4% | 2.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.0 | 21.7 | -1.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 711 | 707 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.9% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCD | 2.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 9.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.3% | 51.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.5% change in MCD stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -9.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 289.55 | 276.52 | -4.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,883 | 27,781 | 3.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 31.9% | 32.4% | 1.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.1 | 21.7 | -9.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 711 | 707 | 0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCD | -4.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | -4.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.5% | 34.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.0% change in MCD stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 290.95 | 276.52 | -5.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,060 | 27,781 | 6.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.2% | 32.4% | 0.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.8 | 21.7 | -12.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 714 | 707 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCD | -5.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 3.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.4% | 32.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.4% change in MCD stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 243.86 | 276.52 | 13.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 24,193 | 27,781 | 14.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 33.1% | 32.4% | -2.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.2 | 21.7 | -2.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 730 | 707 | 3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MCD | 13.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 15.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 58.2% | 26.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MCD Return | 28% | 1% | 15% | 0% | 8% | -8% | 47% |
| Peers Return | 17% | -5% | 26% | 14% | -5% | 12% | 69% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MCD Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 42% | 62% | 57% | 43% | 64% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MCD Max Drawdown | -5% | -17% | -17% | -17% | -11% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -29% | -19% | -19% | -26% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: SBUX, YUM, CMG, QSR, TXRH. See MCD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MCD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.1% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -16.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 159 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 156 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -15.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
McDonald's's stock fell -0.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | MCD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 156 days | 140 days |
In The Past
McDonald's's stock fell -0.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About McDonald's (MCD)
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is a globally recognized fast-food chain that operates and franchises restaurants in the United States and numerous international markets. As of late 2021, the company managed over 40,000 restaurants worldwide, making it one of the largest restaurant chains globally. Founded in 1940 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, McDonald's has built its business around providing quick-service meals to a broad customer base.
The core of McDonald's offerings includes its iconic hamburgers and cheeseburgers, alongside popular chicken sandwiches, nuggets, and wraps. Complementing these main dishes are its well-known fries, salads, and a variety of desserts like shakes, sundaes, and soft-serve cones, plus bakery items. The menu is further diversified by a breakfast selection featuring items such as biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, and hotcakes, catering to morning diners. A wide range of soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages are also standard fare.
McDonald's primarily serves the mass market, appealing to a wide demographic seeking convenient, affordable, and consistent fast food. Its extensive global footprint means it caters to diners across diverse cultures and geographies, from families to individuals, students to professionals, throughout the day with its varied meal options, including breakfast, lunch, and dinner.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe McDonald's:
- Coca-Cola for prepared meals: Just as Coca-Cola is a globally ubiquitous and highly consistent brand for beverages, McDonald's is the same for quick, standardized prepared meals.
- Walmart for quick meals: Similar to how Walmart provides a vast, convenient, and consistent option for everyday retail needs, McDonald's does the same for affordable and accessible quick meals.
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- Hamburgers and Cheeseburgers: Classic beef patties served in buns with various toppings.
- Chicken Sandwiches and Nuggets: A variety of poultry-based options, including crispy or grilled sandwiches and bite-sized nuggets.
- Fries: McDonald's signature golden, crispy potato sticks.
- Salads and Wraps: Lighter meal options including fresh greens and various fillings wrapped in tortillas.
- Breakfast Menu Items: A dedicated selection for morning meals, featuring items like hotcakes, breakfast sandwiches, and burritos.
- Desserts and Shakes: Sweet treats such as ice cream sundaes, soft-serve cones, milkshakes, and baked goods.
- Beverages: A broad array of drinks including soft drinks, coffee, and other non-alcoholic options.
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McDonald's (MCD) primarily sells to individual consumers rather than other companies. Based on its operations as a fast-food restaurant chain, its major customer categories include:
- Families and Children: A significant portion of McDonald's customer base consists of families, often attracted by child-friendly menu items like the Happy Meal, play areas in some locations, and an overall family-oriented dining experience.
- Individuals Seeking Convenience and Speed: This category includes commuters, people on lunch breaks, travelers, and anyone looking for a quick, easily accessible, and consistent meal solution, particularly during busy times or when on the go.
- Value-Conscious Consumers: Customers who prioritize affordability and seek budget-friendly meal options are a key demographic for McDonald's, often utilizing value menus, combo deals, and promotions to get a satisfying meal at a lower cost.
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- Tyson Foods (TSN)
- The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
- Pilgrim's Pride (PPC)
- JBS S.A. (JBSS3.SA)
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Chris Kempczinski, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Chris Kempczinski joined McDonald's in 2015 as Executive Vice President for strategy, business development, and innovation. He was promoted to President of McDonald's USA in October 2016 and became CEO in November 2019, also assuming the role of Chairman of the Board in 2024. Prior to McDonald's, he accumulated over 25 years of experience in consumer goods, holding senior positions at Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo, and Kraft Foods, where he served as Executive Vice President of Growth Initiatives and President of International. There is no information indicating he founded or managed other companies, sold companies to acquirers, or has a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies.
Ian Borden, Executive Vice President, Global Chief Financial Officer
Ian Borden has been with McDonald's for nearly 30 years. He began his career in the finance department in Canada and has held various international leadership and P&L roles, including Chief Financial Officer of McDonald's Russia and Eastern Europe, Managing Director of McDonald's Ukraine, and President of International Developmental Licensed and Foundational Markets. Most recently, he was President, International, overseeing all business outside of the U.S., before becoming Global Chief Financial Officer. There is no information provided indicating he founded or managed other companies, sold companies to acquirers, or has a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies.
Joe Erlinger, President, McDonald's USA
Joe Erlinger serves as the President of McDonald's USA.
Heidi B. Capozzi, Executive Vice President, Global Chief People Officer
Heidi B. Capozzi joined McDonald's in April 2020. Before McDonald's, she was the Senior Vice President of Human Resources at The Boeing Company since 2016. Her prior experience also includes leadership roles in human resources and communications at Northrop Grumman and TRW's automotive and defense business, as well as human resources, internal services, and quality for Insitu.
Warren Anderson, Senior Vice President, Global Chief Supply Chain Officer
Warren Anderson's career with McDonald's spans more than 15 years. He most recently served as Corporate Senior Vice President, Global Supply Chain, collaborating with over 100 international markets. His responsibilities include the supply and cost management of food, packaging, logistics, toys, and equipment for McDonald's restaurants worldwide. He contributed to achieving a $1 billion global cost savings target and ensured supply chain resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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The key risks to McDonald's (MCD) business are:
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Inflation and Pressured Consumers Leading to Margin Compression: McDonald's faces significant challenges from stubborn inflation, which drives up input costs such as food (specifically beef) and labor expenses. This pressure on operational costs, particularly due to minimum wage hikes, directly impacts the company's margins. Simultaneously, a pressured consumer base, especially lower-income quick-service restaurant (QSR) consumers, is leading to reduced traffic. McDonald's must balance the need to offer value to attract and retain customers with increasing costs, which can compress profitability if prices cannot be raised sufficiently.
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Geopolitical Instability and International Market Risks: As a global company with extensive international operations, McDonald's is exposed to geopolitical instability in key international markets. This includes navigating diverse economic systems, political crises, and fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, which can significantly affect profitability and financial reporting. Additionally, varying foreign taxation policies in different countries pose challenges for international business expansion and operations.
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Intensifying Competition and Maintaining Customer Relevance: McDonald's operates in a highly competitive fast-food industry. The company faces ongoing challenges from competitors, which can impact its market positioning and foot traffic. To remain successful, McDonald's must continuously differentiate its customer experience, stay relevant with evolving consumer preferences (such as the demand for healthier menu options), and execute strategic plans effectively to ensure sustained customer satisfaction and prevent sales cannibalization from its own expanding store footprint.
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- Shift in consumer preferences towards healthier, plant-based, and sustainably sourced food options, challenging McDonald's traditional menu and brand perception.
- Increasing reliance on and power of third-party food delivery platforms, leading to eroded profit margins, loss of direct customer relationship and data, and increased platform leverage over McDonald's operations and pricing.
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- Burgers and Cheeseburgers: The global hamburger market is valued at USD 759.45 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1,168.48 billion by 2035, with a CAGR of 7.9% from 2026 to 2035. In the U.S., the burger restaurant market size was approximately USD 173.6 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 177.7 billion in 2026. The burgers/sandwich segment contributed over 43% of the revenue share in the global fast food market in 2025.
- Chicken Sandwiches and Nuggets: The global fried chicken market was valued at about USD 44.56 billion in 2024 and is predicted to grow to around USD 78.92 billion by 2035, at a CAGR of 5.33% from 2025 to 2035. The U.S. quick-service chicken restaurant industry generated roughly USD 60–65 billion in annual revenue as of 2025, and its market size is estimated at USD 63.7 billion in 2026. This segment is projected to grow to approximately USD 67.2 billion by 2030.
- Beverages (Soft Drinks and Other Beverages): The global non-alcoholic beverages market was estimated at USD 1.41 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 2.85 trillion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 3.78% from 2026 to 2035. The U.S. non-alcoholic beverages market size was estimated at USD 280.2 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach USD 457.0 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 7.4% from 2024 to 2030.
- Coffee: The global coffee shop market size was approximately USD 220.41 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to nearly USD 290.24 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.5% from 2025 to 2032. The U.S. coffee shop market value was around USD 49.5 billion in 2023 and approximately USD 74.3 billion in revenue in 2025. For the broader U.S. coffee market, the size is projected to grow from USD 112.86 billion in 2025 to reach USD 175.27 billion by 2035.
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McDonald's (MCD) is strategically focused on several key drivers to fuel its revenue growth over the next two to three years. These initiatives are part of its "Accelerating the Arches" strategy, emphasizing restaurant expansion, digital transformation, menu innovation, and the introduction of new restaurant concepts.
- Aggressive Restaurant Expansion: McDonald's plans its fastest period of growth in its history, aiming to expand its global restaurant count to 50,000 by 2027. This includes opening over 2,100 new restaurants worldwide in 2024, with significant development targeted in international markets such as China, alongside expansion in the United States and International Operated Markets (IOM). This substantial increase in its footprint is expected to contribute to systemwide sales growth.
- Digital Transformation and Loyalty Program Growth: The company is doubling down on its "3 Ds" – Digital, Delivery, and Drive-Thru – with a strong emphasis on enhancing its digital ecosystem. A core component is the MyMcDonald's Rewards program, which McDonald's aims to grow to 250 million active users by 2027, projecting to double loyalty program sales to $45 billion. This digital focus involves upgrading the McDonald's app, introducing web-based ordering, personalizing offers, and deploying a new universal software platform across its digital channels to improve customer experience and operational efficiency. Furthermore, the company is leveraging AI solutions to optimize drive-thru speeds and personalized app offers.
- Menu Innovation and Value Focus: McDonald's is committed to enhancing its core menu, notably through its "Best Burger" initiative, which involves over 50 changes to improve burger quality with hotter patties, softer buns, and better-melted cheese, rolling out nationwide. Beyond core improvements, the company plans to introduce new menu items and limited-time offers (LTOs) and is testing a larger burger option. A significant driver for attracting and retaining customers, especially in a pressured consumer spending environment, is its continued focus on value and affordability through initiatives like the $5 Meal Deal and Every Day Affordable Price (EDAP) menus.
- Launch of New Restaurant Concepts: To tap into new market segments and drive growth, McDonald's is introducing innovative spin-off concepts such as CosMc's. This new drive-thru-only format, focusing on customizable beverages and snacks, is designed to compete in the growing afternoon snack and beverage category, with 10 locations planned in 2024.
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Share Repurchases
- McDonald's repurchased $2.056 billion of its stock in 2025.
- The company repurchased $2.824 billion in 2024.
- Share repurchases amounted to $3.054 billion in 2023.
Share Issuance
- McDonald's shares outstanding have consistently declined over the last few years, indicating that share repurchases have outweighed any share issuances. For instance, shares outstanding decreased from 744.8 million in 2021 to 712.1 million in 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In 2024, the company's cash used for investing activities increased, primarily due to an increased ownership stake in McDonald's China business and the acquisition of McDonald's business in Israel.
- Long-term investments by McDonald's were $2.71 billion in 2024, marking a significant increase from $1.08 billion in 2023.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures are projected to be between $3.7 billion and $3.9 billion in 2026, with the majority directed towards new unit openings across the U.S. and international markets, and supporting strategic growth drivers like technology and digital enhancements.
- McDonald's capital expenditures were $3.365 billion in 2025, primarily for new restaurant openings, with approximately 2,275 new restaurants opened globally in 2025.
- Capital expenditures were approximately $2.8 billion in 2024, mainly allocated to new restaurant openings and reinvestment in existing restaurants.
Peer Outperformance in Restaurants
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | McDonald's | 3.6% | 21.7x | -5.0% | 10.6% | 22.0% | — |
| CAKE | Cheesecake Factory | 5.1% | 24.0x | 131.6% | 272.1% | 157.5% | +136pp |
| DRI | Darden Restaurants | 7.5% | 21.7x | 31.6% | 67.8% | 72.9% | +51pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -12.6% | 33.7% | 41.0% | CVSA 246% · GHC 109% · LRN 107% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | 3.7% | 29.7% | 29.7% | PHM 175% · TOL 159% · GRBK 150% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -2.1% | 18.9% | 11.3% | MUSA 209% · PAG 115% · ORLY 111% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 19.8% | 56.9% | 7.0% | RCL 250% · MAR 159% · HLT 147% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -4.3% | 3.3% | 5.3% | HD 6% · LOW 5% · FND -62% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | 4.6% | 73.9% | -1.2% | SGI 50% · MHK -15% |
| Footwear | 9 | 75.0% | 79.9% | -15.7% | DECK 23% · SHOO -11% · CROX -16% |
| Restaurants ← | 36 | 2.4% | -4.6% | -24.2% | EAT 363% · CAKE 158% · TXRH 110% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 33.4% | 75.8% | -24.5% | BBY -3% · GME -53% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -8.5% | 32.3% | -25.5% | FTDR 168% · HRB 146% · ADT 24% |
| Distributors | 4 | -5.4% | -16.9% | -26.0% | ARMK 96% · GPC 4% · POOL -56% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -16.4% | -4.9% | -34.4% | GOLF 51% · HAS 50% · BC -14% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 18.9% | 0.4% | -39.5% | OSW 160% · LTH 143% · PLNT -37% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 34.2% | 20.6% | -40.3% | WHR -82% |
| Broadline Retail | 12 | -5.8% | 14.0% | -45.7% | EBAY 76% · AMZN 47% · OLLI 24% |
| Apparel Retail | 27 | -3.8% | 1.8% | -48.8% | ANF 223% · VSXY 110% · TJX 104% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 37 | -13.2% | -28.2% | -48.8% | GTX 197% · PATK 64% · ALV 41% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 21 | -25.8% | -16.1% | -51.8% | RRR 22% · BYD 19% · LVS 3% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | 15.8% | 17.8% | -53.7% | TPR 255% · RL 225% · KTB 59% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 25 | -0.1% | -11.4% | -57.7% | ULTA 65% · ASO 53% · ARHS 26% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -59.8% | -44.0% | -70.5% | GM 54% · TSLA -12% · F -12% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -31.9% | -29.8% | -80.5% | GRMN 122% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| McDonald's Stock at Support Zone - Bargain or Trap? | 06/18/2026 | |
| EAT, QSR Beat McDonald's Stock on Price & Growth | 06/09/2026 | |
| McDonald's Earnings Notes | 05/06/2026 | |
| Should You Buy McDonald's Stock? | 05/02/2026 | |
| McDonald's Stock Slides 5.6% With A 5-Day Losing Spree | 03/24/2026 | |
| How Low Can McDonald's Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| How Does McDonald's Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Why Every McDonald’s Investor Is Looking At This One Number | 11/01/2026 | |
| What’s Going To Happen With McDonald’s Stock Soon? | 10/28/2026 | |
| Is McDonald’s Stock A Real Bargain? | 10/21/2026 | |
| Is The Market Underpricing McDonald’s Stock? | 10/20/2026 | |
| Inflation Is Back. Is A Stock Market Crash Next? | 10/20/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 133.31 |
| Mkt Cap | 43.9 |
| Rev LTM | 11,244 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,645 |
| FCF LTM | 1,630 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,486 |
| CFO LTM | 2,215 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,992 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 43.9 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 19.8 |
| P/EBIT | 19.6 |
| P/E | 25.2 |
| P/CFO | 18.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 17.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 5.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -55.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Operated Markets | 13,633 | 12,628 | 12,382 | 11,297 | 12,220 |
| United States (US) | 10,825 | 10,631 | 10,568 | 9,588 | 8,865 |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 2,427 | 2,661 | 2,543 | 2,297 | 2,138 |
| Total | 26,885 | 25,920 | 25,493 | 23,182 | 23,223 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Operated Markets | 6,382 | 5,946 | 5,831 | 3,926 | 5,131 |
| United States (US) | 5,808 | 5,733 | 5,694 | 5,136 | 4,755 |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 203 | 33 | 121 | 309 | 471 |
| Total | 12,393 | 11,712 | 11,646 | 9,371 | 10,356 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Operated Markets | 27,487 | 23,491 | 23,947 | 21,979 | 24,186 |
| United States (US) | 23,008 | 22,547 | 22,477 | 21,793 | 21,280 |
| International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate | 9,020 | 9,143 | 9,723 | 6,663 | 8,388 |
| Total | 59,515 | 55,181 | 56,147 | 50,435 | 53,854 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $276.52 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 195.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -17.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $248.70 | $279.63 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 11.2% | -1.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.8% | 20.8% |
| Downside Capture | 6.16 | 14.38 |
| Upside Capture | 23.69 | 4.92 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 10.2% | 3.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.40 | 0.03 | -0.13 | -0.24 | -0.02 | 0.18 |
| Up Beta | -1.74 | -0.80 | -0.32 | -0.27 | 0.12 | 0.19 |
| Down Beta | -0.35 | -0.33 | -0.06 | -0.08 | -0.04 | 0.14 |
| Up Capture | 64% | 22% | -17% | -29% | -8% | 4% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 19 | 31 | 58 | 117 | 380 |
| Down Capture | -115% | 33% | 4% | -22% | 4% | 41% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 24 | 33 | 68 | 134 | 371 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | -7.2% | 20.8% | -0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -1.9% | 19.8% | -0.22 | 32.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | 3.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | 8.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -27.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 44.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.9% | 43.6% | -0.60 | -3.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 4.8% | 18.2% | 0.14 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.0% | 24.2% | 0.12 | 34.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 33.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | -6.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 42.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 6.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MCD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 12.1% | 20.8% | 0.51 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.8% | 22.3% | 0.52 | 48.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 51.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 7.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 11.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 54.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.1% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 11.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2026 | 6.5% | ||
| 8/4/2026 | 1.2% | 3.2% | -0.9% |
| 5/7/2026 | -0.1% | -3.0% | -0.8% |
| 2/11/2026 | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | 3.0% | 1.0% | 6.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.9% | -0.5% | -1.8% |
| 2/10/2025 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.7% |
| Median Negative | -0.6% | -1.5% | -2.1% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 9.8% | 14.6% |
| Max Negative | -3.7% | -3.8% | -8.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2026 | 6.5% | ||
| 8/4/2026 | 1.2% | 3.2% | -0.9% |
| 5/7/2026 | -0.1% | -3.0% | -0.8% |
| 2/11/2026 | 2.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% |
| 11/5/2025 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 4.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | 3.0% | 1.0% | 6.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | -1.9% | -0.5% | -1.8% |
| 2/10/2025 | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| 10/29/2024 | -0.6% | -1.3% | -0.2% |
| 7/29/2024 | 3.7% | 9.8% | 14.6% |
| 4/30/2024 | -0.2% | -1.6% | -8.8% |
| 2/5/2024 | -3.7% | -2.6% | -1.0% |
| 10/30/2023 | 1.7% | 4.7% | 10.3% |
| 7/27/2023 | 1.2% | -0.7% | -3.2% |
| 4/25/2023 | -0.6% | 1.5% | -2.3% |
| 1/31/2023 | -1.3% | -1.1% | -2.5% |
| 10/27/2022 | 3.3% | 5.4% | 7.2% |
| 7/26/2022 | 2.7% | 5.5% | 4.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| 1/27/2022 | -0.4% | 5.0% | -0.2% |
| 10/27/2021 | 2.7% | 5.4% | 8.8% |
| 7/28/2021 | -1.9% | -3.8% | -3.1% |
| 4/29/2021 | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| 1/28/2021 | -0.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 11/9/2020 | -1.5% | -1.5% | -3.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.7% |
| Median Negative | -0.6% | -1.5% | -2.1% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 9.8% | 14.6% |
| Max Negative | -3.7% | -3.8% | -8.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/23/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Updated 8/11/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 284.32 | 5,252 | 1,493,249 | 2,198,900 | Form |
| 2 | Ralls-Morrison, Desiree | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5302026 | 278.36 | 2,763 | 769,109 | 1,744,794 | Form |
| 3 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 280.11 | 333 | 93,277 | 2,166,340 | Form |
| 4 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 4232026 | 302.72 | 333 | 100,806 | 2,442,009 | Form |
| 5 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 4122026 | 307.00 | 2,626 | 806,182 | 2,578,766 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 284.32 | 5,252 | 1,493,249 | 2,198,900 | Form |
| 2 | Ralls-Morrison, Desiree | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 5302026 | 278.36 | 2,763 | 769,109 | 1,744,794 | Form |
| 3 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 280.11 | 333 | 93,277 | 2,166,340 | Form |
| 4 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 4232026 | 302.72 | 333 | 100,806 | 2,442,009 | Form |
| 5 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 4122026 | 307.00 | 2,626 | 806,182 | 2,578,766 | Form |
| 6 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 3242026 | 313.47 | 333 | 104,386 | 2,633,114 | Form |
| 7 | Baroni, Dario | President, IDL | Direct | Sell | 3192026 | 323.77 | 600 | 194,262 | 344,190 | Form |
| 8 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 328.34 | 2,626 | 862,221 | 2,867,357 | Form |
| 9 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 330.43 | 333 | 110,033 | 2,885,609 | Form |
| 10 | Banner, Jonathan | EVP - Chief Impact Officer | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 333.29 | 6,201 | 2,066,596 | 763,589 | Form |
| 11 | Kempczinski, Christopher J | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 333.54 | 26,276 | 8,764,097 | 7,638,113 | Form |
| 12 | Kempczinski, Christopher J | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 331.35 | 26,277 | 8,706,884 | 7,587,961 | Form |
| 13 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 331.00 | 4,692 | 1,553,052 | 2,052,054 | Form |
| 14 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 325.25 | 2,626 | 854,106 | 1,755,739 | Form |
| 15 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 1132026 | 306.58 | 2,626 | 805,079 | 1,654,956 | Form |
| 16 | Ralls-Morrison, Desiree | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 12182025 | 320.00 | 2,486 | 795,520 | 2,005,763 | Form |
| 17 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 12152025 | 315.00 | 658 | 207,270 | 1,952,861 | Form |
| 18 | Steijaert, Manuel JM | EVP - President, IOM | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 305.50 | 6,567 | 2,006,218 | 1,407,164 | Form |
| 19 | Borden, Ian Frederick | EVP - CFO | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 310.00 | 17,134 | 5,311,540 | 8,169,476 | Form |
| 20 | Erlinger, Joseph M | President, McDonald's USA | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 305.82 | 3,195 | 977,095 | 1,861,869 | Form |
| 21 | Steijaert, Manuel JM | EVP - President, IOM | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 300.42 | 13,134 | 3,945,716 | 1,383,765 | Form |
| 22 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 315.00 | 1,000 | 315,000 | 2,160,131 | Form |
| 23 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 315.00 | 4,716 | 1,485,540 | 2,475,131 | Form |
| 24 | Banner, Jonathan | EVP - Chief Impact Officer | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 310.00 | 1,000 | 310,000 | 30,585 | Form |
| 25 | Ralls-Morrison, Desiree | EVP, Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8062025 | 310.00 | 2,487 | 770,970 | 2,713,743 | Form |
| 26 | Flatley, Edith Morgan | EVP - Global CMO | Direct | Sell | 8042025 | 303.50 | 976 | 296,216 | 2,392,053 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 7, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 52.2% | 362 | Hold | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $21.0 Mil | 5.6% | 12 | TRIM -21.1% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $126.6 Mil | 4.1% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $11.1 Mil | 3.9% | 24 | TRIM -56.4% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $16.0 Mil | 3.2% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Cambridge Financial Group, Inc. | $8.4 Mil | 3.2% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| Cartenna Capital, LP | $68.4 Mil | 3.0% | 41 | TRIM -22.8% | 13F |
| Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP | $25.6 Mil | 2.3% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $11.5 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | ADD +5.5% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $6.9 Mil | 1.3% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $6.3 Mil | 1.1% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $22.3 Mil | 0.7% | 30 | TRIM -8.3% | 13F |
| Gates Foundation Trust | $104.1 Mil | 0.3% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $76.9 Mil | 2.8% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $11.1 Mil | 3.9% | 24 | TRIM -56.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Cartenna Capital, LP | $68.4 Mil | 3.0% | 41 | TRIM -22.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $21.0 Mil | 5.6% | 12 | TRIM -21.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $22.3 Mil | 0.7% | 30 | TRIM -8.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 52.2% | 362 | Hold | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $126.6 Mil | 4.1% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Gates Foundation Trust | $104.1 Mil | 0.3% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Cartenna Capital, LP | $68.4 Mil | 3.0% | 41 | TRIM -22.8% | 13F |
| Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP | $25.6 Mil | 2.3% | 39 | New | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $22.3 Mil | 0.7% | 30 | TRIM -8.3% | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $21.0 Mil | 5.6% | 12 | TRIM -21.1% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $16.0 Mil | 3.2% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $11.5 Mil | 1.8% | 41 | ADD +5.5% | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $11.1 Mil | 3.9% | 24 | TRIM -56.4% | 13F |
| Cambridge Financial Group, Inc. | $8.4 Mil | 3.2% | 33 | Hold | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $6.9 Mil | 1.3% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $6.3 Mil | 1.1% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
MCD Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive, based on a resilient, high-margin franchise model that is currently navigating a fixable execution issue in its core U.S. market. Management has a dated plan to launch a new value program in early 2027, and leading indicators suggest trends began improving in September. The primary risk is a failure of this program to restore customer traffic.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Franchise / Royalty & Real Estate(Number of Franchised Restaurants * Average Sales per Restaurant * Royalty/Rent Rate) + (Number of Company Restaurants * Average Sales per Restaurant) High-margin rent and royalty fees from the vast, global network of franchisees.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a successful turnaround is underway, addressing recent missteps on value to re-accelerate U.S. traffic.
- Management is launching a new national value program in early 2027.
- U.S. comparable sales trend turned positive in September after a weak start to Q3.
- The business operates with a 46.1% operating margin, a five-year high.
- The company expects net unit expansion to add ~2.5% to 2026 systemwide sales growth.
PRIMARY RISK
The recent -0.2% U.S. comparable sales decline, driven by falling guest counts, may signal a permanent loss of value-conscious consumers to competitors, not a temporary misstep.
- U.S. comparable sales fell -0.2% in Q3 2026, the first decline in six quarters.
- The U.S. decline was caused by negative comparable guest counts.
- Inventory grew 7.3% in Q3 while revenue grew only 1.1%, a negative divergence.
- Overall revenue growth has decelerated sharply to 1.1% in the latest quarter.
- Management has pushed its 50,000-restaurant target from 2027 to 2028.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Global Comparable Sales Growth | 1.5% for Q3 2026 - Decelerating | Global comparable sales growth decelerated sharply from 3.8% in Q1 2026 to 1.3% in Q2, before stabilizing with a slight uptick to 1.5% in the latest quarter. Management commentary indicates that solid performance in most international markets offset weakness in the U.S. |
| U.S. Comparable Sales Growth | -0.2% for Q3 2026 - Decelerating | U.S. comparable sales have decelerated for two consecutive quarters, falling from 3.9% in Q1 to 0.8% in Q2 and turning negative at -0.2% in Q3. This marks the first decline in six quarters, according to press reports in November. Management noted that performance improved through the quarter, turning positive in September after being negative in July and August. |
| Systemwide Sales Growth | 4% (constant currency) (Q3 2026) | Measures the total sales of all restaurants in the system, including both franchised and company-owned. It is the basis for calculating franchised revenues and indicates the overall scale and growth of the brand. |
| Net Restaurant Additions | Expects approximately 2,100 (Full Year 2026) | Represents the net increase in the number of restaurants globally. It is a key driver of total systemwide sales growth, alongside comparable sales. |
U.S. Turnaround: Green Shoots or False Dawn?
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the improving intra-quarter trend, with U.S. sales turning positive in September, and trust management's dated plan for a new value program in early 2027 to fix the issue.
CORE TENSION
Can the leading indicator of an intra-quarter U.S. sales improvement in September overcome the lagging indicator of a headline -0.2% quarterly decline driven by negative traffic?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The market's strong positive reaction to earnings suggests investors are underwriting the turnaround story and looking past the weak headline figure.
BEAR VIEW
Bears see the headline -0.2% U.S. comp decline and negative traffic as proof the brand's value perception is broken in a soft economy, a problem a new promotion may not solve.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
by the end of 2026 | Best Burger Global Rollout Watch: Implementation of 'Best Burger' operational and formulation changes to be completed in nearly all markets. |
1/26/2027 - 2/2/2027 | Negative Read-Across from Peers Watch: Peer commentary on consumer spending, traffic trends, and value perception in the restaurant sector. |
1/26/2027 | Starbucks Earnings Report Watch: Peer Starbucks (SBUX) reports earnings, providing an early read on consumer discretionary spending and beverage trends. |
2/1/2027 | Chipotle Earnings Report Watch: Peer Chipotle (CMG) reports earnings, offering insight into fast-casual demand and input cost pressures. |
2/2/2027 | Yum Brands Earnings Report Watch: Peer Yum Brands (YUM) reports earnings, providing a global QSR competitive benchmark. |
2/9/2027 | Persistent US Sales Weakness Watch: Q4 earnings report for U.S. comparable sales and management commentary on the effectiveness of value tests. |
2/9/2027 | Inventory Impact on Margins Watch: Q4 gross margin results and any management discussion of inventory write-downs or increased promotional activity. |
2/9/2027 | Company Q4 Earnings Report Watch: McDonald's reports Q4 and full-year 2026 earnings, a key catalyst for U.S. performance and 2027 outlook. |
early 2027 | New US Value Program Watch: Launch of a new national value program in the U.S. to address recent performance issues. |
early 2027 | Hand-Breaded Chicken Test Watch: Launch of advertised sales tests for hand-breaded chicken in approximately 100 U.S. restaurants. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-04 | Q3 Earnings Report Details: Reported Q3 global comparable sales growth of 1.5% and a U.S. comparable sales decline of 0.2%, the first in six quarters. Management detailed interventions to improve U.S. performance. | +5.7% $263.04 -> $278.04 |
2026-09-23 | Franchisee Investment Pledge Details: The company pledged a multibillion-dollar investment to help franchisees tackle rising costs, overhaul equipment, and expand share in chicken and beverages under its McDonald's > NEXT strategy. | -5.3% $250.35 -> $237.02 |
2026-08-04 | Q2 Earnings Report Details: Reported Q2 results with U.S. comparable sales growth of 0.8%, which was below expectations. Management acknowledged execution issues and a need to address them. | +3.3% $263.36 -> $272.07 |
2026-05-13 | Stadium Naming Rights Partnership Details: The company announced a landmark stadium naming rights partnership with Chicago Fire Football Club for McDonald's Park, set to open in 2028. | +0.0% $271.06 -> $271.19 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: MCD trades at roughly 25% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (1.8x the market). A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
SBUX - Starbucks
Premium Consumer ExposureStarbucks offers exposure to a less price-sensitive, premium consumer segment and has demonstrated stronger recent comparable sales growth of 7.2% globally and 7.7% in the U.S.
YUM - Yum Brands
Diversified QSR PortfolioYum Brands provides exposure to a different set of value-oriented brands like KFC and Taco Bell, diversifying risk away from a single-brand turnaround story.
A high-margin real estate and brand-licensing enterprise whose financial stability relies on its vast franchisee network, with near-term stock performance tied to its ability to fix the consumer value proposition in the critical U.S. market.
McDonald's operates a capital-light, high-margin business by franchising ~95% of its restaurants, collecting stable rent and royalty streams. While international markets are performing solidly, the U.S. business has faltered, with recent sales declining for the first time in six quarters due to missteps in its value strategy. The company is now urgently focused on correcting this with new entry-level value tests. The investment thesis hinges on the successful execution of this U.S. turnaround to restore traffic growth, which is the primary catalyst for the stock in the near term.
A return to positive and accelerating comparable sales growth in the U.S. segment; management commentary indicating successful franchisee adoption and consumer response to the new value programs in early 2027.
Continued negative U.S. comparable sales into 2027; reports of franchisee dissent or unprofitability related to the new value strategy; market share losses to QSR peers on value.
Isolated lawsuits, such as the one reported in November regarding McCafé labeling, unless they indicate a systemic operational or legal failure. Short-term commodity price fluctuations.
Repricing Catalyst
The national launch of a new U.S. value program in early 2027, which aims to correct recent execution stumbles and re-accelerate traffic and sales growth in the company's largest market.
United States (US)
$11.0B TTM (40% of Total) · 54% MarginWhat It Is
This segment's revenues come from sales at company-owned restaurants to consumers and fees (rent and royalties) from franchised restaurants within the United States.
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay for food at company-operated restaurants. Independent franchisees pay rent and royalties to operate under the McDonald's brand, benefiting from its established market presence, supply chain, and marketing in the U.S.
Competition
International Operated Markets
$14.2B TTM (51% of Total) · 47% MarginWhat It Is
This segment includes significant international markets where the company operates restaurants and franchises. Revenues are generated from sales at company-owned restaurants and fees from franchisees.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and franchisees in major international markets like Germany, Australia, and the U.K. pay for food and franchise rights, respectively. Franchisees leverage the brand's global recognition and proven operating model.
Competition
International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate
$2.6B TTM (9% of Total) · 7% MarginWhat It Is
This segment consists of over 75 countries where licensees are responsible for operating, managing, and capitalizing their businesses. It also includes corporate activities.
Who Pays & How
Developmental licensees pay royalties based on a percentage of sales and initial fees. They are chosen for their entrepreneurial experience and financial resources to develop and open new restaurants in their markets.
Competition
McDonald's — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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