Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)
Market Price (9/8/2026): $6.29 | Market Cap: $848.9 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Leisure Facilities
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)
Market Price (9/8/2026): $6.29Market Cap: $848.9 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Leisure Facilities
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.1% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 326% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4% Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 36.75 Key risksLUCK key risks include [1] severe indebtedness and potential insolvency, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldDividend Yield is 4.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -77%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 326% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -21% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.4% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest Days-to-CoverDTC = (Short Interest Share Quantity) / (Average Daily Trading Volume). Reflects how many days it would take to cover (close out) the short interest based on average volumes. High DTC can signify an increased risk of a short squeeze. is 36.75 |
| Key risksLUCK key risks include [1] severe indebtedness and potential insolvency, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) stock has lost about 25% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Q4 2026 Earnings and Missed Expectations.
Lucky Strike Entertainment reported its fiscal Q4 2026 results on August 27, 2026, for the quarter ending June 28, 2026, which fell significantly short of analyst estimates. The company reported total revenue of $303.9 million, missing the consensus estimate of $311.30 million. The reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) loss was $0.20 to $0.21, considerably wider than the consensus estimated loss of $0.03 to $0.05. Additionally, Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $74.1 million, below expectations of $87 million, and a decrease from $88.7 million in the prior year's Q4.
2. Weak Same-Store Sales Performance and External Headwinds.
Fiscal Q4 2026 saw a decline in same-store revenue by 2.5% year-over-year, contrasting with expectations for flat performance. This underperformance was attributed in part to external factors, including the World Cup and the NBA/Knicks championship games during June, which reportedly diverted millions of consumers to at-home viewing and led to sharply negative comparable sales for the month. Broader macroeconomic headwinds, such as a decline in consumer confidence and discretionary spending, also contributed to weaker traffic.
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Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) stock has lost about 25% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Q4 2026 Earnings and Missed Expectations.
Lucky Strike Entertainment reported its fiscal Q4 2026 results on August 27, 2026, for the quarter ending June 28, 2026, which fell significantly short of analyst estimates. The company reported total revenue of $303.9 million, missing the consensus estimate of $311.30 million. The reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) loss was $0.20 to $0.21, considerably wider than the consensus estimated loss of $0.03 to $0.05. Additionally, Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $74.1 million, below expectations of $87 million, and a decrease from $88.7 million in the prior year's Q4.
2. Weak Same-Store Sales Performance and External Headwinds.
Fiscal Q4 2026 saw a decline in same-store revenue by 2.5% year-over-year, contrasting with expectations for flat performance. This underperformance was attributed in part to external factors, including the World Cup and the NBA/Knicks championship games during June, which reportedly diverted millions of consumers to at-home viewing and led to sharply negative comparable sales for the month. Broader macroeconomic headwinds, such as a decline in consumer confidence and discretionary spending, also contributed to weaker traffic.
3. Persistent Margin Pressure and Declining Profitability.
The company experienced continued margin compression, with Adjusted EBITDA for the full fiscal year 2026 falling to $333.2 million from $367.7 million in the prior fiscal year. The Adjusted EBITDA margin also contracted from 30.6% to 26.8%. This decline was primarily driven by increased marketing investments, which rose from $17 million to $30 million, and ongoing integration costs associated with newer acquisitions that operate at lower margins compared to the company's more mature portfolio.
4. Series of Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions.
Throughout and immediately prior to the specified period, several investment analysts revised their outlook on Lucky Strike Entertainment, contributing to negative sentiment. J.P. Morgan downgraded the stock to "Underweight" with a $6 price target in April 2026, citing anticipated worsening traffic. In May 2026, Craig Hallum and UBS Group both downgraded LUCK to "Hold" with $6.50 price targets. Following the disappointing Q4 results in August 2026, Oppenheimer lowered its price target from $15 to $10. Most recently, Zacks Research downgraded the stock to a "Strong Sell" on September 1, 2026.
5. Cautious Fiscal 2027 Guidance Amid Elevated Debt.
Lucky Strike Entertainment's fiscal 2027 guidance, issued on August 27, 2026, projected adjusted EBITDA of $340 million to $360 million. While the revenue guidance of $1.28 billion to $1.31 billion was generally in line with consensus, the EBITDA outlook was perceived as cautious, especially considering the decline in fiscal 2026 EBITDA. This cautious guidance, coupled with an elevated net debt of $1.77 billion, likely increased investor apprehension regarding the company's near-term profitability and deleveraging prospects.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.9% change in LUCK stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.19 | 6.23 | -23.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,243 | 1,245 | 0.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.9 | 0.7 | -24.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 136 | 135 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -23.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LUCK | -23.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.8% | -9.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.9% | 4.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -25.1% change in LUCK stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -26.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.31 | 6.23 | -25.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,240 | 1,245 | 0.4% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.9 | 0.7 | -26.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 137 | 135 | 1.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -25.1% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LUCK | -25.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.5% | 23.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -40.5% change in LUCK stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -44.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.47 | 6.23 | -40.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,201 | 1,245 | 3.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.2 | 0.7 | -44.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 135 | 2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -40.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LUCK | -40.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.4% | 24.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.3% | 28.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -40.0% change in LUCK stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/7/2026 was primarily driven by a -57.4% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.39 | 6.23 | -40.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,087 | 1,245 | 14.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.6 | 0.7 | -57.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 166 | 135 | 22.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -40.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LUCK | -40.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 77.1% | 31.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 37.7% | 34.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LUCK Return | -7% | 49% | 5% | -28% | -13% | -25% | -32% |
| Peers Return | 17% | -15% | -7% | -4% | 8% | 12% | 6% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LUCK Win Rate | 44% | 67% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 22% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 31% | 44% | 45% | 47% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LUCK Max Drawdown | - | -35% | -47% | -32% | -44% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -34% | -48% | -36% | -52% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PLAY, FUN, PRKS, MSGE, SPHR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LUCK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 175 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -18.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Lucky Strike Entertainment's stock fell -27.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 37.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | LUCK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 175 days | 31 days |
In The Past
Lucky Strike Entertainment's stock fell -27.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 37.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)
Lucky Strike Entertainment Corporation (LUCK) is a prominent operator of location-based entertainment platforms across North America. The company is dedicated to providing diverse recreational experiences, managing a portfolio that includes bowling alleys, amusement centers, water parks, and comprehensive family entertainment centers.
Operating under well-recognized brands such as AMF, Bowlero, Lucky X Strike, Boomers, and PBA, Lucky Strike Entertainment serves a broad customer base, including individuals, families, and groups seeking engaging activities and entertainment experiences.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK):
- A larger, more diversified Dave & Buster's.
- The 'Marriott of entertainment venues,' operating multiple brands of bowling alleys and family fun centers.
- The 'Six Flags of local entertainment,' offering a diverse mix of bowling, arcades, and water parks.
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- Bowling Entertainment: Providing bowling alley experiences and related facilities for recreation.
- Amusement Centers: Operating venues featuring arcade games, laser tag, and other competitive or recreational activities.
- Water Parks: Managing and operating facilities offering water slides, pools, and other water-based recreational attractions.
- Family Entertainment Centers (FECs): Operating multi-faceted venues that combine various entertainment options like bowling, arcades, laser tag, and dining for all ages.
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Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) primarily sells its services directly to individuals and groups who utilize its location-based entertainment venues. The company operates bowling alleys, amusement centers, water parks, and family entertainment centers, which are typically patronized by the general public.
Major Customer Categories:
- Individual Consumers and Families: This category includes the general public seeking leisure, recreation, and entertainment activities such as bowling, arcade games, water park access, and amusement rides at the company's various branded locations (e.g., Lucky X Strike, Boomers).
- Corporate and Group Event Organizers: Businesses, schools, and private individuals or organizations that book Lucky Strike Entertainment's venues for parties, corporate events, team-building activities, or other group gatherings and celebrations.
- League and Recreational Bowlers: A dedicated segment of customers who regularly visit the company's bowling centers (under brands like AMF, Bowlero, and PBA) for league play, tournaments, or frequent recreational bowling.
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Thomas F. Shannon, Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, President
Mr. Shannon founded Bowlmor Lanes in 1997, growing it into the world's largest operator of bowling entertainment centers. He acquired AMF Bowling in 2012, significantly expanding the company's footprint. The company, then Bowlmor AMF, was acquired by the private equity firm Atairos Group in 2017, with Mr. Shannon retaining a significant investment. He recently assumed the role of President in March 2026, in addition to his other roles.
Bobby Lavan, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Lavan is responsible for overseeing Lucky Strike Entertainment's financial strategy, planning, and performance. He participated in the company's earnings calls in March 2026 and made an insider purchase of company shares in September 2025.
Christopher Collins, Chief Accounting Officer
Mr. Collins ensures accurate financial reporting, compliance, and accounting practices for Lucky Strike Entertainment.
Heather Webb, Chief People Officer
Ms. Webb is responsible for championing the company's culture, talent development, and employee engagement initiatives.
Danielle Capestany, Chief Transformation Officer
Ms. Capestany drives strategic initiatives focused on evolving and future-proofing Lucky Strike Entertainment's business.
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The key risks to Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) primarily revolve around its substantial debt, sensitivity to consumer discretionary spending, and intense competition coupled with operational cost pressures.
- High Levels of Debt and Interest Expenses: Lucky Strike Entertainment carries a significant debt burden and high interest expenses, which could severely limit its financial flexibility and ability to invest in growth or withstand economic downturns. Multiple reports indicate high leverage, with one source noting a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 8x. This level of debt raises concerns about incremental borrowing costs and potential credit rating downgrades if profitability declines. Analysts have also suggested a considerable probability of liquidity issues within the next decade due to its fixed cost base and leverage profile.
- Economic Sensitivity and Consumer Discretionary Spending: As an operator of location-based entertainment platforms, Lucky Strike Entertainment's business is highly susceptible to economic fluctuations and changes in consumer discretionary spending. Economic downturns or prolonged periods of consumer caution can lead to reduced foot traffic and lower revenue, impacting the company's profitability and growth prospects. Recent performance has shown declines in same-store sales, partly attributed to a choppy macroeconomic backdrop and reduced corporate and event traffic.
- Intense Competition and Operational Cost Pressures: The entertainment industry is highly competitive, with numerous players vying for consumer attention. Lucky Strike Entertainment must continuously innovate and differentiate its offerings to maintain its market position and attract customers. Additionally, the company faces ongoing operational cost pressures, including increases in location operating costs, labor, and marketing expenses. These rising costs can depress profit margins and challenge the company's ability to increase comparable sales while managing expenses effectively.
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- Bowling: The bowling market size in North America was valued at approximately USD 1.03 billion in 2024.
- Amusement Parks: The amusement parks market in North America generated an estimated revenue of USD 39.08 billion in 2024.
- Water Parks: The market size for Water Parks in the U.S. was approximately USD 6.4 billion in 2025.
- Family Entertainment Centers (FECs): The Family Entertainment Centers market in North America had a market size of approximately USD 12.6 billion in 2024.
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Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Rebranding and Elevated Guest Experience: The company is actively converting its Bowlero locations to the Lucky Strike brand, focusing on an enhanced guest experience. This transformation includes upgraded interiors, improved guest hospitality, and elevated food and beverage menus, which are anticipated to attract more customers and increase spending per visit. By the end of 2026, Lucky Strike aims to rebrand 74 locations, ultimately reaching approximately 218 Lucky Strike sites.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Expansion into Diverse Entertainment Verticals: Lucky Strike Entertainment continues to pursue a "roll-up" strategy, acquiring smaller entertainment venues, including water parks and family entertainment centers. This inorganic growth strategy diversifies the company's offerings beyond traditional bowling, expanding its portfolio of location-based entertainment platforms.
- Enhanced Food and Beverage Offerings: A significant focus is placed on investing in food and beverage innovations and improving the F&B program across its venues. This is expected to drive higher revenue per customer and contribute to overall top-line growth.
- Revitalization of the Events Business and Organic Growth: After a period of decline, the company is making progress in rebuilding its events business, with same-store event sales turning positive in early 2026. Alongside this, Lucky Strike is investing in marketing to expand brand awareness and build momentum in core retail and league segments, utilizing a strong online booking funnel to drive customer engagement and organic growth.
- Optimization of Location Footprint and Capital Structure: The acquisition of real estate for 58 existing locations is a strategic move to reduce rent obligations and enhance financial and operational flexibility. This increased flexibility allows for reinvestment in profitable venues and high-ROI initiatives, indirectly supporting future revenue growth and enabling further expansion and enhancements across the portfolio.
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Share Repurchases
- A share repurchase program was authorized on February 7, 2022, for up to $200,000, which was subsequently replenished multiple times, bringing the aggregate authorized amount to approximately $551,518 and extended indefinitely on February 2, 2024.
- In fiscal year 2025 (ended June 29, 2025), the company repurchased 6.8 million shares of Class A common stock for approximately $72 million.
- As of September 29, 2024, approximately $156.7 million remained authorized under the share repurchase program.
Share Issuance
- In December 2021, the company (then Bowlero Corp.) went public through a merger with Isos Acquisition Corp., which included a Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) of about $450 million from various investors, including Apollo Global Management and Wells Fargo Asset Management.
Inbound Investments
- The company received approximately $450 million through a private investment in public equity (PIPE) during its merger with Isos Acquisition Corp. in December 2021.
Outbound Investments
- The company deployed approximately $700 million for acquisitions over the past three-plus fiscal years (ending July 10, 2025), including 58 existing properties for $306 million.
- Strategic acquisitions included the Lucky Strike bowling brand and its 14 locations in September 2023, and the Raging Waves water park for approximately $49 million in May 2024.
- Since June 2021, the company has added 40 new bowling centers, with 38 of these being acquisitions. In fiscal year 2025, 14 new locations were added, bringing the total to 370.
Capital Expenditures
- Over the past three-plus fiscal years (up to October 2025), the company invested an additional $385 million into capital expenditures, focusing on water parks, family entertainment centers (FECs), and next-generation bowling concepts.
- The company projects total revenue growth of 5% to 9% for fiscal year 2026, with an emphasis on strategic investments to drive long-term success.
Peer Outperformance in Leisure Facilities
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -15.4% | 92.0% | 68.2% | LINC 317% · CVSA 239% · PRDO 228% |
| Homebuilding | 18 | -11.3% | 21.9% | 45.7% | GRBK 201% · PHM 164% · TOL 144% |
| Automotive Retail | 18 | -15.9% | 13.9% | 18.3% | MUSA 236% · PAG 183% · ORLY 123% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 22 | 14.7% | 53.1% | 10.6% | RCL 240% · MAR 162% · HLT 157% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | -7.6% | 34.2% | 10.2% | FIVE 39% · SIG 22% · DKS 21% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -22.7% | -6.1% | 9.9% | HVT 13% · LOW 10% · HD 10% |
| Distributors | 4 | -7.5% | -21.0% | -4.5% | ARMK 145% · GPC 33% · LKQ -42% |
| Home Furnishings | 4 | -6.4% | 28.7% | -8.9% | SGI 61% · LZB 11% · MHK -29% |
| Restaurants | 34 | -10.5% | -12.0% | -11.8% | EAT 337% · CAKE 172% · RAVE 145% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -11.7% | 36.8% | -11.8% | HRB 123% · FTDR 79% · SCI 40% |
| Footwear | 9 | 47.3% | 38.5% | -15.4% | WEYS 162% · DECK 28% · SHOO 24% |
| Leisure Products | 13 | -17.2% | -15.5% | -28.9% | GOLF 86% · HAS 15% · MCFT -4% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 38 | -10.1% | -1.3% | -33.3% | MOD 1590% · GTX 296% · STRT 101% |
| Leisure Facilities ← | 11 | 2.9% | -9.2% | -33.9% | OSW 128% · JAKK 104% · ESCA 22% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -11.8% | -24.6% | -34.7% | MCRI 114% · RSI 70% · RRR 59% |
| Apparel Retail | 25 | -4.5% | 19.5% | -35.5% | ANF 342% · URBN 155% · ROST 113% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 27 | -2.7% | 9.3% | -37.3% | TPR 252% · RL 251% · ELA 250% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 14.4% | 38.8% | -41.9% | KEQU 179% · FLXS 168% · HBB 123% |
| Broadline Retail | 14 | -10.4% | 20.7% | -50.9% | DDS 324% · EBAY 53% · AMZN 47% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | -15.3% | 8.2% | -59.0% | BBY 2% · UPBD -59% · GME -61% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -63.7% | -44.3% | -69.3% | GM 87% · F 53% · TSLA 41% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 18 | -26.6% | -43.3% | -75.5% | TLF 109% · BBW 109% · WINA 81% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | 1.8% | -8.2% | -79.4% | AXIL 2499% · GRMN 77% · TBCH -56% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 27.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,502 |
| Op Inc LTM | 164 |
| FCF LTM | 157 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -24 |
| CFO LTM | 375 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 261 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 16.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.2% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $6.23 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/23/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -39.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $6.93 | $7.87 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -10.1% | -20.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 46.6% | 51.3% |
| Downside Capture | 84.20 | 179.81 |
| Upside Capture | -56.31 | 89.53 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -14.5% | 24.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.60 | 0.42 | -0.45 | 0.65 | 0.99 | 1.08 |
| Up Beta | -0.61 | -0.58 | -1.17 | 0.65 | 0.63 | 1.05 |
| Down Beta | 2.26 | -0.12 | -1.39 | -0.17 | 0.47 | 1.10 |
| Up Capture | 40% | 5% | -37% | 45% | 81% | 68% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 62 | 121 | 360 |
| Down Capture | 230% | 204% | 87% | 132% | 145% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 35 | 62 | 127 | 382 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LUCK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUCK | -38.8% | 51.2% | -0.78 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -1.7% | 19.4% | -0.21 | 29.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.7% | 12.8% | 1.13 | 25.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.6% | 29.2% | 0.75 | 8.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.8% | 20.3% | 1.67 | -10.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.1% | 13.6% | 0.39 | 24.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.1% | 43.8% | -0.63 | 26.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LUCK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUCK | -7.1% | 51.9% | 0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.6% | 24.1% | 0.19 | 32.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 31.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.82 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 19.5% | 0.43 | 3.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.7% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 28.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.2% | 52.6% | 0.38 | 17.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LUCK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LUCK | -3.6% | 50.8% | 0.04 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.1% | 22.2% | 0.50 | 32.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 31.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.4% | 16.3% | 0.62 | 6.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 18.1% | 0.35 | 3.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 27.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.7% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 17.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/27/2026 | -7.1% | -7.4% | |
| 5/6/2026 | -1.2% | 5.2% | -0.5% |
| 2/4/2026 | -13.5% | 1.6% | 17.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.1% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
| 8/28/2025 | -1.5% | -2.2% | -5.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | -13.2% | -5.0% | -4.3% |
| 2/5/2025 | -0.2% | 8.1% | -12.0% |
| 11/4/2024 | 11.9% | 16.6% | 12.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 13.4% | 7.3% | 12.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -7.1% | -7.3% |
| Max Positive | 18.9% | 29.2% | 41.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.7% | -13.9% | -14.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/27/2026 | -7.1% | -7.4% | |
| 5/6/2026 | -1.2% | 5.2% | -0.5% |
| 2/4/2026 | -13.5% | 1.6% | 17.3% |
| 11/4/2025 | -1.1% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
| 8/28/2025 | -1.5% | -2.2% | -5.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | -13.2% | -5.0% | -4.3% |
| 2/5/2025 | -0.2% | 8.1% | -12.0% |
| 11/4/2024 | 11.9% | 16.6% | 12.9% |
| 5/6/2024 | -10.3% | -12.1% | 7.0% |
| 2/5/2024 | 15.8% | 29.2% | 14.1% |
| 11/7/2023 | 15.3% | 10.3% | 13.7% |
| 9/11/2023 | 4.9% | 5.7% | 11.4% |
| 5/17/2023 | -16.7% | -13.9% | -14.4% |
| 2/15/2023 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% |
| 11/16/2022 | -1.8% | -6.7% | -9.4% |
| 9/15/2022 | 7.5% | 6.5% | 12.4% |
| 5/11/2022 | 18.9% | 20.1% | 16.4% |
| 2/9/2022 | 14.9% | 20.6% | 41.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 13.4% | 7.3% | 12.9% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -7.1% | -7.3% |
| Max Positive | 18.9% | 29.2% | 41.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.7% | -13.9% | -14.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 09/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 09/11/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/17/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 09/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 09/11/2023 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/17/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/16/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 09/15/2022 | 10-K |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/11/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/22/2021 | 424B3 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/28/2026Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 8/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Total Revenue Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 4.0% | -0.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 4.5% for 2026 | ||
| 2027 Total Revenue | Reported | 1.28 Bil | 1.29 Bil | 1.31 Bil | 3.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 1.25 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 340.00 Mil | 350.00 Mil | 360.00 Mil | 0.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 347.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 90.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenue Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | -2.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 7.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 1.25 Bil | 1.25 Bil | 1.26 Bil | -2.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.28 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 345.00 Mil | 347.50 Mil | 350.00 Mil | -12.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 395.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 2/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 1.26 Bil | 1.28 Bil | 1.31 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.28 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 375.00 Mil | 395.00 Mil | 415.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 395.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 11/4/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Revenue | Reported | 1.26 Bil | 1.28 Bil | 1.31 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.28 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 375.00 Mil | 395.00 Mil | 415.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 395.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/1/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 9012026 | 614.00 | 1,000 | 614,000 | 55,086,852 | Form | |
| 2 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 9012026 | 6.25 | 400 | 2,500 | 554,488 | Form | |
| 3 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 9012026 | 6.23 | 2,800 | 17,444 | 550,221 | Form | |
| 4 | Mathrani, Sandeep | Sandeep Mathrani 2017 Revocable Trust | Buy | 9012026 | 6.41 | 9,350 | 59,957 | 59,957 | Form | |
| 5 | Bass, Robert J | Direct | Buy | 6092026 | 8.10 | 745 | 6,034 | 415,109 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 9012026 | 614.00 | 1,000 | 614,000 | 55,086,852 | Form | |
| 2 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 9012026 | 6.25 | 400 | 2,500 | 554,488 | Form | |
| 3 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 9012026 | 6.23 | 2,800 | 17,444 | 550,221 | Form | |
| 4 | Mathrani, Sandeep | Sandeep Mathrani 2017 Revocable Trust | Buy | 9012026 | 6.41 | 9,350 | 59,957 | 59,957 | Form | |
| 5 | Bass, Robert J | Direct | Buy | 6092026 | 8.10 | 745 | 6,034 | 415,109 | Form | |
| 6 | Lavan, Robert M | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 6092026 | 7.60 | 277 | 2,103 | 616,879 | Form |
| 7 | Ekster, Lev | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 8.47 | 3,000 | 25,399 | 544,343 | Form | |
| 8 | Lavan, Robert M | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 3102026 | 8.47 | 246 | 2,087 | 685,287 | Form |
| 9 | Harinstein, Jason | Direct | Buy | 2132026 | 7.54 | 13,000 | 98,020 | 98,020 | Form | |
| 10 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 2102026 | 6.50 | 6,000 | 39,000 | 555,867 | Form | |
| 11 | Lavan, Robert M | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 12092025 | 8.53 | 243 | 2,073 | 688,169 | Form |
| 12 | Bass, Robert J | Direct | Buy | 12092025 | 8.46 | 520 | 4,402 | 427,508 | Form | |
| 13 | Ekster, Lev | President | Direct | Buy | 12092025 | 8.75 | 38 | 332 | 591,027 | Form |
| 14 | Born, Richard Meynard | Direct | Buy | 12022025 | 8.09 | 30,000 | 242,736 | 242,736 | Form | |
| 15 | Born, Richard Meynard | BFT Partners LLC | Buy | 12022025 | 8.09 | 30,000 | 242,736 | 242,736 | Form | |
| 16 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 11182025 | 7.62 | 4,685 | 35,700 | 605,927 | Form | |
| 17 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 7.90 | 1,500 | 11,850 | 591,181 | Form | |
| 18 | Young, John Alan | Direct | Buy | 11102025 | 7.95 | 100 | 795 | 582,997 | Form | |
| 19 | Lavan, Robert M | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 9162025 | 10.07 | 174 | 1,754 | 877,148 | Form |
| 20 | Lavan, Robert M | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 9052025 | 9.94 | 2,500 | 24,850 | 864,093 | Form |
| 21 | Ekster, Lev | President | Direct | Buy | 9052025 | 9.99 | 2,505 | 25,025 | 717,282 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 8, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Leisure Facilities Resources |
| Blooloop |
| Attractions Management |
| IAAPA |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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