Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $8.84 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Leisure Facilities
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $8.84Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Leisure Facilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 190% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5% | ||
| Key risksLUCK key risks include [1] severe indebtedness and potential insolvency, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -95% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 190% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -19% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -7.5% |
| Key risksLUCK key risks include [1] severe indebtedness and potential insolvency, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LUCK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, the stock of Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) moved by -16.7% due to several key factors:
1. Lucky Strike Entertainment reported a net loss in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. The company posted a net loss of $13.8 million for the quarter ending September 28, 2025, which contrasted with a net income of $23.1 million in the prior year.
2. The company experienced a decline in same-store revenue. For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Lucky Strike Entertainment's same-store revenue decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous year. This followed an earlier decline of 5.6% in same-store revenue reported for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, which was attributed to challenges in the corporate events sector, particularly in tech-focused regions due to corporate budget tightening.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LUCK Return | � | � | 49% | 5% | -28% | -9% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | 4% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LUCK Win Rate | � | 38% | 67% | 67% | 50% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 46% | 45% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LUCK Max Drawdown | � | � | -20% | -32% | -28% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -47% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PLAY, FUN, PRKS, MSGE, SPHR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LUCK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -46.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to FUN, NOMA, NTV, TRON, AS
In The Past
Lucky Strike Entertainment's stock fell -46.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/8/2023. A -46.8% loss requires a 88.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LUCK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lucky Strike Entertainment
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 26.93 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.7 |
| Rev LTM | 1,453 |
| Op Inc LTM | 164 |
| FCF LTM | -64 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -23 |
| CFO LTM | 230 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 253 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.7 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 7.0 |
| P/E | 7.2 |
| P/CFO | 8.5 |
| Total Yield | -1.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.0% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -13.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -25.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | -26.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 13.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -25.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -36.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -95.3% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/28/2025 | -1.5% | -2.2% | -5.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | -13.2% | -5.0% | -4.3% |
| 2/5/2025 | -0.2% | 8.1% | -12.0% |
| 11/4/2024 | 11.9% | 16.6% | 12.9% |
| 5/6/2024 | -10.3% | -12.1% | 7.0% |
| 2/5/2024 | 15.8% | 29.2% | 14.1% |
| 9/11/2023 | 4.9% | 5.7% | 11.4% |
| 5/17/2023 | -16.7% | -13.9% | -14.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| # Negative | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Median Positive | 11.9% | 12.3% | 12.6% |
| Median Negative | -10.3% | -8.6% | -8.6% |
| Max Positive | 18.9% | 29.2% | 41.6% |
| Max Negative | -16.7% | -13.9% | -14.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8282025 | 10-K 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2052025 | 10-Q 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 9052024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2052024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 9112023 | 10-K 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5172023 | 10-Q 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-Q 1/1/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11162022 | 10-Q 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 9152022 | 10-K 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 3/27/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2092022 | 10-Q 12/26/2021 |
External Quote Links
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