Sphere Entertainment (SPHR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.96 | Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Movies & Entertainment
Sphere Entertainment (SPHR)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $82.96Market Cap: $3.0 BilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Movies & Entertainment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Travel & Leisure Tech. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.7%, Dist 3Y High is -3.7% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -293 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -28% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 120%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 101% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.0% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 99% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -10% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Travel & Leisure Tech. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.7%, Dist 3Y High is -3.7% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 20% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -293 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -28% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 120%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 101% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.0% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 99% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -10% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SPHR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the significant stock movement for Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. The highly successful launch and performance of "The Wizard of Oz" at Sphere significantly boosted revenue and investor confidence. The 4D experience, which premiered in August 2025, had sold over 1.5 million tickets and generated nearly $200 million in sales by December 1, 2025. Its estimated daily revenue of $2 million surpassed previous shows, indicating strong profitability and market reception.
2. Sphere Entertainment reported a substantial turnaround in its Sphere segment's operational profitability for the third quarter of 2025. Revenues for the Sphere segment climbed 37% to $174.1 million compared to the prior year. This led to a shift from a $26.3 million adjusted operating loss to a $17.1 million adjusted operating income for the segment, reflecting the success of new programming and efficient operations.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SPHR Return | - | -33% | -36% | -24% | 19% | 103% | -22% |
| Peers Return | 47% | 1% | -25% | 22% | 15% | 6% | 64% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SPHR Win Rate | 38% | 33% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 33% | 21% | 21% | 27% | 29% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SPHR Max Drawdown | - | -41% | -43% | -52% | -11% | -40% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -10% | -11% | -34% | -5% | -12% | -2% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NFLX, ANGX, DCR, INHI, PSKY.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SPHR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -81.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 446.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -27.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 148 days |
Compare to NFLX, ANGX, DCR, INHI, PSKY
In The Past
Sphere Entertainment's stock fell -81.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/8/2021. A -81.7% loss requires a 446.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SPHR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.1% | 2.1% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -25.1% | -25.1% | -25.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sphere Entertainment
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 48.07 |
| Mkt Cap | 222.1 |
| Rev LTM | 14,905 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,155 |
| FCF LTM | 274 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 98 |
| CFO LTM | 435 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 398 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -9.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 222.1 |
| P/S | 59.7 |
| P/EBIT | 123.6 |
| P/E | 235.7 |
| P/CFO | 277.3 |
| Total Yield | -2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -16.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 52.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 58.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 144.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 37.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 44.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 99.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Square Garden (MSG) Networks | 571 | 608 | ||
| Sphere | 3 | 2 | ||
| Entertainment | 82 | 585 | ||
| Inter-segment eliminations | -2 | -2 | ||
| Tao Group Hospitality | 100 | 180 | ||
| Total | 574 | 610 | 180 | 763 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Square Garden (MSG) Networks | 97 | 152 | ||
| Sphere | -370 | -318 | ||
| Entertainment | -391 | 71 | ||
| Inter-segment eliminations | -1 | -0 | ||
| Purchase accounting adjustments | -29 | -28 | ||
| Tao Group Hospitality | -29 | -103 | ||
| Total | -273 | -166 | -450 | -60 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8112025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-KT 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8142024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2052024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8222023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2092023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8192022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2092022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
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