Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.125 | Market Cap: $591.2 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.125Market Cap: $591.2 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -128% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 305% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Gaming Content & Platforms. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 107x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 26% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Digital Content & Streaming. Themes include Experiential Retail, and Gaming Content & Platforms. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -108%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -128% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 305% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 107x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -15% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 26% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PLAY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today saw Dave & Buster's Entertainment (PLAY) stock experience a significant decline, influenced by several key factors:
1. Deteriorating Q2 2026 Financial Performance: Dave & Buster's reported worse-than-expected results for its second quarter of fiscal 2026 on September 15, 2025. The company announced a substantial 64% erosion in profit and a 3.0% decline in comparable store sales, leading to a drop of over 16% in its shares during postmarket trading.
2. Missed Analyst Expectations: The Q2 2026 earnings revealed an adjusted profit of $0.40 per share, significantly below the consensus analyst estimate of $0.92 per share. Furthermore, the reported revenue of $557.4 million also fell short of analysts' expectations of $562.7 million for the quarter.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PLAY Return | -25% | 28% | -8% | 52% | -46% | -40% | -56% |
| Peers Return | -5% | 4% | 9% | 3% | -5% | -3% | 1% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PLAY Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 28% | 33% | 28% | 28% | 32% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PLAY Max Drawdown | -88% | -10% | -20% | -10% | -53% | -55% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -6% | -12% | -7% | -11% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MDLZ, THS, NATH, BRCB, CADV. See PLAY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PLAY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 118 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -89.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 872.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 372 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.8% | |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 131.3% | |
| Time to Breakeven | 4831 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MDLZ, THS, NATH, BRCB, CADV
In The Past
Dave & Buster's Entertainment's stock fell -38.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/26/2021. A -38.6% loss requires a 62.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PLAY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 12312024 | PLAY | Dave & Buster's Entertainment | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | -39.9% | -55.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 12312024 | PLAY | Dave & Buster's Entertainment | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.7% | -39.9% | -55.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Dave & Buster's Entertainment
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 24.68 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,724 |
| Op Inc LTM | 173 |
| FCF LTM | 57 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -20 |
| CFO LTM | 234 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 203 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.9 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/EBIT | 11.8 |
| P/E | 35.2 |
| P/CFO | 13.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 1.0 |
| Net D/E | 1.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -20.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -31.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -25.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -34.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -102.6% |
Comparison Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 9152025 | 10-Q 8/5/2025 |
| 4302025 | 6102025 | 10-Q 5/6/2025 |
| 1312025 | 4072025 | 10-K 2/4/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12102024 | 10-Q 11/5/2024 |
| 7312024 | 9102024 | 10-Q 8/6/2024 |
| 4302024 | 6122024 | 10-Q 5/5/2024 |
| 1312024 | 4022024 | 10-K 2/4/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12052023 | 10-Q 10/29/2023 |
| 7312023 | 9062023 | 10-Q 7/30/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6062023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3282023 | 10-K 1/29/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12062022 | 10-Q 10/30/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9072022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6072022 | 10-Q 5/1/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3292022 | 10-K 1/30/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12072021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
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