Caterpillar (CAT)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $560.0 | Market Cap: $256.3 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Caterpillar (CAT)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $560.0Market Cap: $256.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.6 Bil Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -50% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 24 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Sustainable Infrastructure, Hydrogen Economy, Show more. | Key risksCAT key risks include [1] a high vulnerability to cyclical downturns and shifts in U.S. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 14 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.6 Bil |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -50% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 24 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Sustainable Infrastructure, Hydrogen Economy, Show more. |
| Key risksCAT key risks include [1] a high vulnerability to cyclical downturns and shifts in U.S. Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Caterpillar (CAT) stock has lost about 30% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Cautious Fiscal Q4 2026 Outlook and Production Capacity Constraints. Despite exceeding adjusted earnings per share estimates for fiscal Q3 2026, reporting $7.20 against an expected $7.06, Caterpillar's stock declined due to a cautious outlook for fiscal Q4 2026 and ongoing production capacity limitations. The company projected only "moderate sales growth" for fiscal Q4 2026 compared to the prior year, with sales for the Construction Industries segment expected to be similar to a year earlier. This outlook, combined with management's acknowledgment of capacity constraints, particularly in the Power & Energy segment, overshadowed the strong fiscal Q3 2026 results and record backlog of $78.1 billion, leading investors to anticipate slower revenue conversion.
2. Significant Analyst Downgrades and Valuation Concerns. The period since late July 2026 saw multiple major financial institutions reduce their price targets and, in some cases, downgrade their ratings for Caterpillar. For instance, on October 15, 2026, Bernstein SocGen cut its price target from $1,002 to $749, citing a slowdown in bookings momentum, while Oppenheimer reduced its target from $1,118 to $1,009 due to increased price and cost pressures on margins. Subsequently, on October 30, 2026, Morgan Stanley lowered its target from $915 to $675. These adjustments were often driven by concerns over Caterpillar's valuation, with DA Davidson noting on November 2, 2026, that the stock was trading at approximately a 50% premium to its peers, and apprehension regarding factors like dealer inventory reductions and potential impacts from tariffs.
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Caterpillar (CAT) stock has lost about 30% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Cautious Fiscal Q4 2026 Outlook and Production Capacity Constraints. Despite exceeding adjusted earnings per share estimates for fiscal Q3 2026, reporting $7.20 against an expected $7.06, Caterpillar's stock declined due to a cautious outlook for fiscal Q4 2026 and ongoing production capacity limitations. The company projected only "moderate sales growth" for fiscal Q4 2026 compared to the prior year, with sales for the Construction Industries segment expected to be similar to a year earlier. This outlook, combined with management's acknowledgment of capacity constraints, particularly in the Power & Energy segment, overshadowed the strong fiscal Q3 2026 results and record backlog of $78.1 billion, leading investors to anticipate slower revenue conversion.
2. Significant Analyst Downgrades and Valuation Concerns. The period since late July 2026 saw multiple major financial institutions reduce their price targets and, in some cases, downgrade their ratings for Caterpillar. For instance, on October 15, 2026, Bernstein SocGen cut its price target from $1,002 to $749, citing a slowdown in bookings momentum, while Oppenheimer reduced its target from $1,118 to $1,009 due to increased price and cost pressures on margins. Subsequently, on October 30, 2026, Morgan Stanley lowered its target from $915 to $675. These adjustments were often driven by concerns over Caterpillar's valuation, with DA Davidson noting on November 2, 2026, that the stock was trading at approximately a 50% premium to its peers, and apprehension regarding factors like dealer inventory reductions and potential impacts from tariffs.
3. Federal Regulatory Inquiry into Equipment Markets. In early October 2026, federal agencies initiated an inquiry into competition within equipment markets, specifically targeting the agricultural equipment industry. This regulatory scrutiny introduced uncertainty for investors, contributing to the downward pressure on Caterpillar's stock price.
4. Substantial Insider Selling by CEO. Joseph E. Creed, Caterpillar's Chief Executive Officer, executed a significant insider sale on August 28, 2026. He sold 32,401 shares at an average price of approximately $808.98 per share, totaling around $26.2 million. This substantial divestment by a key executive likely contributed to negative market sentiment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.3% change in CAT stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -45.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 812.88 | 558.63 | -31.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 70,755 | 77,773 | 9.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.3% | 15.2% | 14.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 39.9 | 21.7 | -45.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 463 | 459 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -31.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAT | -31.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 51.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | -9.5% | 63.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.0% change in CAT stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -53.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 886.35 | 558.63 | -37.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 67,589 | 77,773 | 15.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.1% | 15.2% | 15.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 46.5 | 21.7 | -53.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 466 | 459 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -37.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAT | -37.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 55.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | -6.6% | 73.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.4% change in CAT stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -23.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 572.39 | 558.63 | -2.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 63,139 | 77,773 | 23.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.9% | 15.2% | 1.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.5 | 21.7 | -23.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 470 | 459 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAT | -2.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 59.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.8% | 77.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 157.0% change in CAT stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 62.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 217.32 | 558.63 | 157.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 64,771 | 77,773 | 20.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.9% | 15.2% | 17.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.3 | 21.7 | 62.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 513 | 459 | 11.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 157.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CAT | 157.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 60.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 72.0% | 75.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CAT Return | 16% | 19% | 26% | 25% | 60% | -2% | 240% |
| Peers Return | 19% | 7% | 22% | 8% | 24% | 8% | 124% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CAT Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 50% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 43% | 48% | 53% | 65% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CAT Max Drawdown | -22% | -30% | -22% | -16% | -33% | -48% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -23% | -31% | -23% | -22% | -28% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DE, PCAR, CMI, TEX, OSK. See CAT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -16.6% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -32.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 686 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Caterpillar's stock fell -22.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 28.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | CAT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 35 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 30 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -32.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 77 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 686 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -43.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.0% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 456 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -32.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 107 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.3% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 59 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -68.8% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 220.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 417 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Caterpillar's stock fell -22.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 28.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Caterpillar (CAT)
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is a global leader in manufacturing and selling heavy machinery, engines, and industrial gas turbines. The company primarily operates across vital sectors such as construction, mining, and energy, providing the foundational equipment and power solutions necessary for large-scale infrastructure development, resource extraction, and power generation worldwide.
The company's core product offerings are diverse, spanning multiple segments. Its Construction Industries division provides a wide range of equipment including excavators, loaders, motor graders, and track-type tractors used in building roads, infrastructure, and general construction. The Resource Industries segment focuses on machinery for mining and quarrying, such as electric rope shovels, large mining trucks, and rotary drills, alongside advanced fleet management and autonomous solutions. Furthermore, the Energy & Transportation segment supplies critical power generation solutions, including reciprocating engines, generator sets, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives for marine, oil and gas, and electric power sectors.
Caterpillar serves a broad international customer base, including construction companies, mining operators, and enterprises in the oil and gas, marine, and power generation industries. Beyond equipment sales, the company also provides essential financial products, such as operating and finance leases, installment sale contracts, and wholesale financing, to support its customers in acquiring and utilizing its machinery and services. Additionally, it offers aftermarket parts like filters and undercarriage components, ensuring ongoing support and operational efficiency for its global clientele.
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1. John Deere for industrial construction and mining equipment.
2. The General Motors of bulldozers and excavators.
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- Construction Equipment: Manufactures and sells a wide range of machinery for construction, including excavators, loaders, and dozers.
- Mining Equipment: Provides specialized heavy machinery for mining operations, such as shovels, drills, and large mining trucks, along with support solutions.
- Engines, Turbines, and Power Systems: Offers reciprocating engines, industrial gas turbines, generator sets, and integrated systems for various industrial and power generation applications.
- Locomotives and Rail Services: Provides diesel-electric locomotives, rail components, and related services for the global railway industry.
- Financial Services: Offers operating and finance leases, installment sale contracts, working capital loans, and insurance products to customers.
- Aftermarket Parts and Components: Manufactures and sells essential parts and consumables like filters, fluids, undercarriage, and ground engaging tools for its machinery.
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Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) primarily sells to other companies rather than individuals. Its major customers fall into the following categories:
- Construction Companies: These include companies involved in large-scale infrastructure projects, residential and commercial construction, road building, and site preparation, which utilize Caterpillar's wide range of construction equipment like excavators, loaders, dozers, and pavers.
- Mining Companies: Enterprises engaged in surface and underground mining operations for various minerals and resources are major customers, relying on Caterpillar's extensive line of mining trucks, shovels, drills, and other heavy equipment designed for resource extraction.
- Energy and Transportation Companies: This category encompasses businesses in sectors such as electric power generation, oil and gas exploration and production, marine transportation, and rail industries, which purchase Caterpillar's engines, generator sets, industrial gas turbines, and locomotives.
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Joseph E. Creed, Chief Executive Officer
Joseph E. Creed became Chief Executive Officer of Caterpillar Inc. on May 1, 2025, and will assume the role of Chairman of the Board of Directors effective April 1, 2026. He joined Caterpillar in 1997 and has held various positions of increasing responsibility, including Chief Financial Officer for Caterpillar's Energy & Transportation segment in 2013, Senior Vice President of Caterpillar Finance Services in 2017, and interim Chief Financial Officer in 2018. He was promoted to Group President of Energy & Transportation in 2021 and named Chief Operating Officer in 2023. Mr. Creed graduated from Western Illinois University with a bachelor's degree in accounting.
Andrew Bonfield, Chief Financial Officer
Andrew Bonfield was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Caterpillar Inc. in September 2018. He brings more than three decades of financial expertise to the role. Prior to joining Caterpillar, Mr. Bonfield served as Group CFO and board member of National Grid plc, CFO at Cadbury plc, and Executive Vice President and CFO at Bristol Myers Squibb. He also held roles as finance director of BG Group plc and CFO of Smithkline Beecham plc. Mr. Bonfield is a chartered accountant and holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of Natal in Durban, South Africa. He also serves as a non-executive director and chairman of the audit committee at Reckitt Benckiser Group plc. Mr. Bonfield was the first CFO appointed from outside Caterpillar.
George A. Moubayed, Chief Sustainability and Strategy Officer and Senior Vice President
George Moubayed is the Chief Sustainability and Strategy Officer and a Senior Vice President of Caterpillar Inc., responsible for the Enterprise Strategy Division. He oversees the execution of Caterpillar's strategy for long-term profitable growth. Mr. Moubayed joined Caterpillar in 1997 and has held several leadership positions, including Vice President and General Manager for load and haul products in Resource Industries, and Vice President of Aftermarket Solutions in Resource Industries. He has a bachelor's degree in engineering from McGill University in Montreal, Canada.
David (Dave) T. Walton, President and Chief Executive Officer of Caterpillar Financial Services Corporation and Senior Vice President
David T. Walton is the President and Chief Executive Officer of Caterpillar Financial Services Corporation (Cat Financial) and a Senior Vice President of Caterpillar Inc. He is responsible for the Financial Products Division, which includes Cat Financial and Cat Financial Insurance Services. Mr. Walton joined Cat Financial in 1989 and has held various credit, portfolio management, and sales positions in the United States. His international experience includes serving as managing director of Northern Europe and vice president for Asia-Pacific operations. He also formed and led Cat Financial's global mining finance organization. Mr. Walton holds a bachelor's degree in accounting from Indiana University and a master's degree in business administration from Keller Graduate School.
Ogi Redzic, Chief Digital Officer and Senior Vice President
Ogi Redzic is the Chief Digital Officer and a Senior Vice President of Caterpillar Inc., responsible for Cat Digital. He manages key components of the company's digital and marketing portfolios, including global marketing & brand, connectivity, enterprise data, analytics and AI, and eCommerce. Before joining Caterpillar in 2018, Mr. Redzic was the Alliance Senior Vice President of Connected Vehicles and Mobility Services at Renault-Nissan Alliance. He has more than 20 years of experience in leadership positions in corporate and start-up environments, including roles at Mitsubishi, Nokia HERE, NAVTEQ, PCTEL, Inc., cyberPIXIE, and Motorola. Mr. Redzic holds a bachelor's degree in computer science from Northeastern Illinois University, a master's degree in computer science from the Illinois Institute of Technology, and an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University.
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Here are the key risks to Caterpillar Inc.'s business:
- Trade Policy and Tariffs: Caterpillar faces significant financial headwinds due to persistent trade policies and tariffs, leading to substantial costs and compressing operating margins. For instance, the company adjusted its tariff guidance to an estimated impact of between $1.60 billion and $1.75 billion for the full 2025 fiscal year. These costs are projected to remain substantial, with an estimated incremental cost of $2.6 billion in 2026, directly impacting operating margins and segment profits.
- Cyclical Demand and Macroeconomic Vulnerability: Caterpillar's core business, heavily reliant on the construction and mining sectors, is exposed to the cyclical nature of these industries. Revenue and profitability are susceptible to economic downturns, fluctuations in commodity prices, project funding, and overall macroeconomic conditions. This vulnerability can lead to rapid declines in equipment purchases and sales volumes, exacerbated by risks of dealer inventory destocking.
- Intensifying Competitive Pressure: The company faces aggressive competition, particularly in the North American construction market. Competitors, especially from China, have the advantage of lower labor costs and better access to raw materials and components, which can lead to market share loss and negatively impact Caterpillar's pricing power and profitability. Deere & Company and Komatsu are actively strengthening their presence in key markets, indicating escalating competitive challenges.
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There are two clear emerging threats for Caterpillar:
- Rapid Electrification of Heavy Equipment: A significant industry shift towards battery-electric and hydrogen-powered machinery, particularly in construction and mining. While Caterpillar is investing in these technologies, the swift pace of adoption, driven by environmental regulations, sustainability goals, and operating cost benefits, could disrupt its dominant position in diesel-powered equipment. Agile new entrants or existing competitors fully committing to electric fleets could gain market share rapidly, challenging Caterpillar's traditional product lines and potentially cannibalizing its legacy engine and equipment sales faster than its new electric offerings can compensate.
- Decarbonization and Shift Away from Fossil Fuels in Energy & Transportation: The global push for cleaner energy solutions, including renewable power generation (solar, wind) and advanced energy storage, poses a direct threat to Caterpillar's Energy & Transportation segment. This segment heavily relies on manufacturing and selling diesel and natural gas engines and generator sets. As industries, marine, and power generation sectors increasingly transition to alternative fuels (e.g., hydrogen) or completely bypass internal combustion engines in favor of electric grids powered by renewables, the demand for Caterpillar's traditional fossil fuel-based power solutions could decline significantly.
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Caterpillar (CAT) operates in several significant global markets for its main products and services.
Construction Equipment
The global construction equipment market size was valued at approximately USD 242.17 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 471.25 billion by 2033, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.7% from 2026 to 2033. Asia Pacific is noted as the dominant region in this market, holding a substantial share of the global revenue in 2025.
Mining Equipment
The global mining equipment market size was estimated at USD 95.97 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow to USD 150.11 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 5.75% over the forecast period. Asia-Pacific leads the global mining equipment market, driven by significant mining activities, rapid industrialization, and large-scale infrastructure development projects in countries like China, India, and Australia.
Diesel and Natural Gas Engines
The global diesel engine market size reached USD 243.8 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 318.7 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 3.02% during the period of 2026-2034. For diesel engines specifically used for power generation, the global market size was valued at USD 49.9 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 93.1 billion by 2033, expanding at a CAGR of 8.2% from 2026 to 2033. Asia Pacific held the largest share of the diesel engine for power generation market in 2025.
Industrial Gas Turbines
The global industrial gas turbine market size was USD 9.55 billion in 2025 and is expected to increase from USD 9.85 billion in 2026 to USD 12.16 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 2.67%. Another estimate places the global industrial gas turbine market at USD 7.3 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 12.2 billion in 2034 with a CAGR of 5.1% from 2025 to 2034. Asia-Pacific accounted for 45.60% of the global revenue in 2025.
Locomotives and Rail-related Products
The global locomotive market size was valued at USD 14.42 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 31.25 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 9.43% from 2026 to 2034. Asia Pacific dominated the global locomotive market with a share of 52.63% in 2025.
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Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key factors:
- Strong Backlog and Volume Growth: Caterpillar holds a record backlog of $51 billion, a significant portion of which is anticipated to be delivered within the next 12 months, providing substantial momentum and expected volume growth across all primary business segments.
- Increased Demand for Power Generation: The Energy & Transportation segment is poised for robust growth, particularly from rising energy demands for data centers and hyperscalers supporting cloud computing and generative AI. The company has secured large orders for generator sets for data center prime power, with deliveries scheduled through 2027.
- Growth in Services Revenue: Caterpillar is strategically accelerating its services revenue, targeting an annual figure of $28 billion by 2026. This growth is driven by repower programs, equipment upgrades, and long-term maintenance contracts, capitalizing on the company's extensive global dealer network and connected assets.
- Positive Price Realization: Caterpillar projects positive price realization, with approximately 2% favorable price adjustments contributing to sales growth across all three primary segments in 2026.
- Infrastructure Investment and Reshoring: The Construction Industries segment is expected to benefit from infrastructure tailwinds, including government funding (such as IIGJA funding), accelerated investment in data center construction, and reshoring initiatives in U.S. manufacturing, all of which are driving demand for construction equipment.
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Share Repurchases
- In June 2024, Caterpillar's Board of Directors increased its share repurchase authorization by $20 billion, bringing the total current authorization to approximately $21.8 billion. This authorization was initially launched in 2022 and has no expiration date.
- Caterpillar returned over $10 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends in 2024.
- In 2025, the company deployed $7.9 billion of cash for share repurchases and dividends.
Share Issuance
- The number of outstanding shares has consistently declined over the past few years, indicating net share repurchases rather than issuances.
- Caterpillar's shares outstanding were 467.98 million at the end of 2025, a 3.49% decline from 2024.
- Shares outstanding were 477.932 million in 2024, a 4.71% decrease from 2023.
Outbound Investments
- In October 2025, Caterpillar acquired RPMGlobal Holdings Limited, a provider of mine design, planning, and scheduling software, for $728 million.
- The company acquired Tangent Energy Solutions, Inc. in May 2022, focusing on energy usage monitoring solutions for commercial and industrial sectors.
- Caterpillar also acquired CarbonPoint Solutions in September 2021, a company specializing in carbon capture technology.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures increased consistently from 2021 to 2025, peaking at $4.286 billion in 2025.
- For 2026, projected capital expenditures are expected to be around $3.5 billion, primarily for capacity expansion.
- Caterpillar is making significant investments in advanced technologies such as autonomy, alternative fuels, connectivity, digital, and electrification to meet customer demands. Notably, in October 2025, a $725 million capital expansion was announced for its Lafayette, Indiana engine facility to boost engine production, particularly for data centers.
Peer Outperformance in Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 31.6% | 32.1% | 105.5% | MATX 153% · KEX 106% |
| Construction & Engineering | 28 | -22.1% | 92.9% | 93.8% | FIX 949% · STRL 830% · AGX 565% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment ← | 14 | 7.5% | 66.0% | 93.0% | ALSN 256% · WAB 210% · CAT 195% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -0.9% | 55.7% | 55.7% | ATI 891% · FTAI 850% · HWM 525% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 5.3% | 32.0% | 31.6% | DXPE 298% · AIT 187% · URI 180% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 0.9% | 49.5% | 28.8% | CRS 795% · MLI 302% · SYM 266% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 34.9% | 68.8% | 25.2% | CSX 48% · UNP 36% · NSC 25% |
| Diversified Support Services | 34 | 15.4% | 37.0% | 15.8% | CXW 200% · OPLN 134% · CACI 113% |
| Building Products | 34 | -6.6% | 6.9% | 12.8% | MOD 760% · GFF 339% · TT 132% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 30.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | XPO 270% · R 245% · ARCB 19% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 13.4% | 3.3% | -0.6% | CSW 99% · CSL 70% · DD 67% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 10 | 19.2% | 22.9% | -2.5% | PBI 157% · HNI 37% · MSA 18% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 39 | -8.1% | 59.1% | -5.3% | POWL 1454% · VRT 565% · BE 441% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -11.7% | 1.7% | -13.8% | EXLS 57% · BR 20% · G -10% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | 0.2% | -15.7% | -24.2% | HURN 210% · FCN 36% · BAH 9% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 16 | 14.3% | -4.3% | -25.5% | DE 102% · TTC 15% · AGCO 3% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -19.4% | 26.4% | -27.0% | GEO 191% · CLH 168% · RSG 98% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -45.7% | 29.4% | -27.5% | BCO 65% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 6.4% | 67.5% | -34.4% | LTM 3140% · UAL 114% · DAL 105% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -29.4% | -9.4% | -40.2% | FDX 75% · EXPD 56% · CHRW 50% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 23.6% | -9.6% | -42.8% | ADP 48% · FA 24% · PAYX 10% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -19.6% | 37.4% | -58.0% | UBER 45% · CAR -58% · LYFT -68% |
| Airport Services | 4 | -46.5% | -66.9% | -87.0% | JOBY -40% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 293.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 58.0 |
| Rev LTM | 32,455 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,787 |
| FCF LTM | 2,697 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,369 |
| CFO LTM | 4,206 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,757 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -5.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 58.0 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 15.9 |
| P/EBIT | 15.7 |
| P/E | 20.6 |
| P/CFO | 13.9 |
| Total Yield | 6.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -20.9% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 71.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -6.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -8.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power & Energy | 32,201 | 28,854 | 28,001 | 23,752 | 20,287 |
| Construction Industries | 25,060 | 25,455 | 27,418 | 25,269 | 22,106 |
| Resource Industries | 12,474 | 12,389 | 13,583 | 12,314 | 9,810 |
| Financial Products Segment | 4,220 | 4,053 | 3,785 | 3,253 | 3,073 |
| All Other Segment | 327 | 425 | 449 | 450 | 511 |
| Corporate Items and Eliminations | -6,693 | -6,367 | -6,176 | -5,611 | -4,816 |
| Total | 67,589 | 64,809 | 67,060 | 59,427 | 50,971 |
| $ Mil | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Mining Products | 1,150 | 538 | 431 | 526 | 639 |
| All Other | 655 | 350 | 323 | 248 | 233 |
| Financing & Insurance Services | 460 | 339 | 268 | 334 | 253 |
| North America Marketing | 434 | 177 | 64 | 54 | 79 |
| Power Products | 408 | -87 | 34 | 195 | 487 |
| EAME Marketing | 380 | 177 | 135 | 164 | 195 |
| Latin America Marketing | 180 | 62 | 72 | 59 | 43 |
| Asia/ Pacific Marketing | 133 | 115 | 113 | 18 | 39 |
| Total | 3,800 | 1,671 | 1,440 | 1,598 | 1,968 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Products Segment | 41,476 | 36,925 | 35,685 | 34,269 | 34,860 |
| Liabilities included in segment assets | 15,330 | 11,973 | 11,781 | 12,519 | 10,777 |
| Power & Energy | 11,387 | 11,772 | 10,555 | 9,455 | 9,253 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 9,333 | 6,165 | 6,106 | 6,042 | 8,428 |
| Resource Industries | 6,087 | 5,548 | 5,742 | 5,775 | 5,962 |
| Construction Industries | 5,442 | 5,546 | 5,384 | 5,168 | 4,547 |
| Property, plant and equipment - net and other assets | 4,689 | 4,808 | 6,548 | 4,234 | 4,056 |
| Goodwill and intangible assets | 4,669 | 4,478 | 4,452 | 4,248 | 4,859 |
| Deferred income taxes | 2,749 | 3,194 | 2,668 | 2,098 | 1,735 |
| All Other Segment | 1,516 | 1,937 | 1,890 | 1,828 | 1,678 |
| Other | -471 | -1,022 | -166 | -630 | -706 |
| Inventory methodology differences | -3,622 | -3,560 | -3,169 | -3,063 | -2,656 |
| Total | 98,585 | 87,764 | 87,476 | 81,943 | 82,793 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $558.63 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 256.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1962 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -47.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $758.84 | $805.37 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -26.4% | -30.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 39.2% | 40.7% |
| Downside Capture | 302.20 | 196.21 |
| Upside Capture | 102.33 | 173.92 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 37.0% | 56.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.68 | 2.03 | 1.96 | 2.01 | 1.90 | 1.32 |
| Up Beta | 3.07 | 0.86 | 1.92 | 1.94 | 2.04 | 1.20 |
| Down Beta | -0.11 | 1.19 | 1.34 | 1.41 | 1.49 | 1.15 |
| Up Capture | 179% | 178% | 151% | 197% | 297% | 429% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 29 | 62 | 133 | 411 |
| Down Capture | 464% | 294% | 266% | 216% | 152% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 23 | 35 | 64 | 118 | 341 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | -1.0% | 40.7% | 0.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 7.1% | 17.8% | 0.22 | 77.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | 58.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | 27.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -8.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 6.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.9% | 43.6% | -0.60 | 25.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | 24.4% | 32.4% | 0.71 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 10.9% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 73.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 56.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 16.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | 20.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 34.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 24.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with CAT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | 23.6% | 31.8% | 0.73 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.0% | 20.1% | 0.56 | 75.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 62.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 7.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 29.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 40.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.1% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 16.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/7/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | -9.3% | -17.1% | |
| 8/4/2026 | 5.6% | 0.9% | -6.1% |
| 4/30/2026 | 9.9% | 14.4% | 8.1% |
| 1/29/2026 | 3.4% | 7.5% | 15.5% |
| 10/29/2025 | 11.6% | 4.4% | 9.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.1% | -5.8% | -4.3% |
| 4/30/2025 | 0.6% | 4.4% | 14.4% |
| 1/30/2025 | -4.6% | -8.7% | -12.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -4.6% | -4.3% |
| Max Positive | 11.6% | 14.4% | 19.7% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -17.1% | -12.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2026 | -9.3% | -17.1% | |
| 8/4/2026 | 5.6% | 0.9% | -6.1% |
| 4/30/2026 | 9.9% | 14.4% | 8.1% |
| 1/29/2026 | 3.4% | 7.5% | 15.5% |
| 10/29/2025 | 11.6% | 4.4% | 9.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.1% | -5.8% | -4.3% |
| 4/30/2025 | 0.6% | 4.4% | 14.4% |
| 1/30/2025 | -4.6% | -8.7% | -12.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | -2.1% | -1.1% | 4.2% |
| 8/6/2024 | 3.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | -7.0% | -8.9% | -3.5% |
| 2/5/2024 | 2.0% | 0.7% | 5.9% |
| 10/31/2023 | -6.7% | -1.6% | 3.0% |
| 8/1/2023 | 8.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% |
| 4/27/2023 | -0.9% | -0.3% | -2.9% |
| 1/31/2023 | -3.5% | -3.9% | -4.9% |
| 10/27/2022 | 7.7% | 8.9% | 19.7% |
| 8/2/2022 | -5.8% | -4.6% | -4.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | -0.7% | 4.0% | -0.5% |
| 1/28/2022 | -5.2% | -5.5% | -11.6% |
| 10/28/2021 | 4.1% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 7/30/2021 | -2.7% | -2.5% | 0.1% |
| 4/29/2021 | -2.1% | 2.4% | 3.9% |
| 1/29/2021 | -0.8% | 4.0% | 19.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 4.4% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -4.6% | -4.3% |
| Max Positive | 11.6% | 14.4% | 19.7% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -17.1% | -12.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/19/2020 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Updated 11/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fish, James C JR | Direct | Buy | 11032026 | 620.39 | 1,000 | 620,390 | 2,924,518 | Form | |
| 2 | Creed, Joseph E | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 808.98 | 32,401 | 26,211,764 | 27,954,307 | Form |
| 3 | Johnson, Denise C | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 907.91 | 12,605 | 11,444,170 | 45,236,474 | Form |
| 4 | Johnson, Denise C | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 909.79 | 6,196 | 5,637,081 | 45,330,466 | Form |
| 5 | Schaupp, William E | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 906.00 | 360 | 326,160 | 480,180 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fish, James C JR | Direct | Buy | 11032026 | 620.39 | 1,000 | 620,390 | 2,924,518 | Form | |
| 2 | Creed, Joseph E | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 808.98 | 32,401 | 26,211,764 | 27,954,307 | Form |
| 3 | Johnson, Denise C | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 907.91 | 12,605 | 11,444,170 | 45,236,474 | Form |
| 4 | Johnson, Denise C | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 909.79 | 6,196 | 5,637,081 | 45,330,466 | Form |
| 5 | Schaupp, William E | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 5142026 | 906.00 | 360 | 326,160 | 480,180 | Form |
| 6 | Fassino, Anthony D | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 916.80 | 16,283 | 14,928,266 | 42,210,423 | Form |
| 7 | De, Lange Bob | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 922.92 | 24,222 | 22,354,978 | 79,397,919 | Form |
| 8 | Fassino, Anthony D | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 926.25 | 9,152 | 8,477,067 | 42,645,612 | Form |
| 9 | Bonfield, Andrew R J | CFO Emeritus | Direct | Sell | 5072026 | 918.71 | 15,674 | 14,399,861 | 48,631,914 | Form |
| 10 | Kaiser, Jason | Group President | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 883.03 | 5,642 | 4,982,055 | 8,471,790 | Form |
| 11 | MacLennan, David | Direct | Buy | 5052026 | 876.84 | 250 | 219,210 | 7,195,349 | Form | |
| 12 | Creed, Joseph E | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 718.93 | 2,500 | 1,797,317 | 25,222,107 | Form |
| 13 | Shurman, Rodney Michael | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 759.61 | 2,278 | 1,730,392 | 1,096,117 | Form |
| 14 | Shurman, Rodney Michael | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 763.39 | 1,764 | 1,346,620 | 1,099,282 | Form |
| 15 | Schaupp, William E | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 764.20 | 972 | 742,802 | 629,701 | Form |
| 16 | Fassino, Anthony D | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 776.90 | 7,891 | 6,130,518 | 36,236,947 | Form |
| 17 | Kaiser, Jason | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 776.70 | 1,690 | 1,312,623 | 6,726,999 | Form |
| 18 | De, Lange Bob | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 767.08 | 12,507 | 9,593,870 | 65,199,499 | Form |
| 19 | De, Lange Bob | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 720.11 | 22,656 | 16,314,812 | 57,574,955 | Form |
| 20 | Fassino, Anthony D | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 722.15 | 6,033 | 4,356,731 | 29,717,195 | Form |
| 21 | De, Lange Bob | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 704.97 | 16,070 | 11,328,811 | 56,364,183 | Form |
| 22 | Fassino, Anthony D | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 680.45 | 10,671 | 7,261,082 | 28,001,198 | Form |
| 23 | De, Lange Bob | Group President | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 682.99 | 15,977 | 10,912,131 | 54,607,099 | Form |
| 24 | Bonfield, Andrew R J | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 1052026 | 575.06 | 10,000 | 5,750,589 | 26,142,178 | Form |
| 25 | Bonfield, Andrew R J | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 571.44 | 10,000 | 5,714,448 | 31,692,328 | Form |
| 26 | Kaiser, Jason | Group President | Direct | Sell | 11132025 | 563.60 | 10,707 | 6,034,490 | 4,874,597 | Form |
| 27 | Fassino, Anthony D | Group President | Direct | Sell | 11122025 | 570.18 | 8,184 | 4,666,353 | 23,669,312 | Form |
| 28 | De, Lange Bob | Group President | Direct | Sell | 11072025 | 562.36 | 14,638 | 8,231,826 | 45,106,333 | Form |
| 29 | MacLennan, David | Direct | Buy | 11062025 | 568.86 | 300 | 170,658 | 4,520,730 | Form | |
| 30 | Schaupp, William E | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11062025 | 572.22 | 1,200 | 686,664 | 757,047 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 7, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gates Foundation Trust | $4.5 Bil | 14.2% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $41.7 Mil | 8.4% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Regents Gate Capital LLP | $17.7 Mil | 3.8% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $35.2 Mil | 3.7% | 33 | TRIM -28.1% | 13F |
| Oribel Capital Management, LP | $21.3 Mil | 3.2% | 41 | New | 13F |
| DKRT Investments Corp. | $10.6 Mil | 2.7% | 48 | Hold | 13F |
| Cumberland Advisors Inc | $6.7 Mil | 2.6% | 48 | Hold | 13F |
| Blackhill Capital Inc | $42.2 Mil | 2.2% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Albar Capital Partners LLP | $10.7 Mil | 1.7% | 36 | TRIM -71.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electron Capital Partners, LLC | $42.8 Mil | 2.0% | 40 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Generali Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne | $14.4 Mil | 2.5% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Albar Capital Partners LLP | $10.7 Mil | 1.7% | 36 | TRIM -71.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $35.2 Mil | 3.7% | 33 | TRIM -28.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gates Foundation Trust | $4.5 Bil | 14.2% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Blackhill Capital Inc | $42.2 Mil | 2.2% | 49 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $41.7 Mil | 8.4% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Minneapolis Portfolio Management Group, LLC | $35.2 Mil | 3.7% | 33 | TRIM -28.1% | 13F |
| Oribel Capital Management, LP | $21.3 Mil | 3.2% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Regents Gate Capital LLP | $17.7 Mil | 3.8% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Albar Capital Partners LLP | $10.7 Mil | 1.7% | 36 | TRIM -71.1% | 13F |
| DKRT Investments Corp. | $10.6 Mil | 2.7% | 48 | Hold | 13F |
| Cumberland Advisors Inc | $6.7 Mil | 2.6% | 48 | Hold | 13F |
CAT Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is based on a record $78.1 billion backlog providing multi-year visibility, driven by structural data center demand. This outweighs near-term growth moderation concerns. A planned tripling of engine capacity by 2030 underscores the long-duration opportunity, though execution on this expansion remains a key checkpoint.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Capital Goods & Heavy Equipment(Number of Units Sold × Average Selling Price) + Services Revenue Volume leverage and price realization in the high-margin Power & Energy segment, driven by the data center build-out.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a fundamental business model shift, with data center demand creating unprecedented, long-duration visibility.
- Order backlog reached a record $78.1 billion, up 96% year-over-year.
- Power & Energy orders are being taken for delivery as far out as 2030.
- Management targets tripling large reciprocating engine capacity by 2030 from 2024 levels.
- Power & Energy is the most profitable segment, with a 24.4% margin in Q3.
PRIMARY RISK
The market is concerned that after a 139% annual stock run, growth is decelerating, and the company faces a classic industrial downturn masked by temporary AI enthusiasm.
- Management guided to 'moderate' sales growth for Q4 2026, a potential slowdown.
- Full-year 2026 tariff costs are expected to be around $2.2 billion, pressuring margins.
- The stock fell 13.0% in two days following the latest earnings report.
- Options market implied volatility is at the 99.2 percentile of its one-year range.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Order Backlog | $78 billion at the end of Q3 2026 - Accelerating | The order backlog has shown strong acceleration both year-over-year and sequentially for four consecutive quarters. Management noted on the Q3 earnings call that the growth was broad-based, with all three primary segments contributing. The duration of the backlog is extending, with management noting some orders for Power & Energy are being taken as far out as 2029 and 2030. |
| Sales to Users (Retail Sales) | Up 20% year-over-year in Q3 2026 - Stable | The 20% growth in Sales to Users (STUs) reflects continued strong end-market demand. The Q3 earnings call highlighted that Construction Industries STUs grew a robust 27% in North America, and Power & Energy STUs grew 36% overall. Resource Industries was a relative soft spot, with STUs up 4% due to what management described as delays in shipping and commissioning. |
| Sales to Users Growth (Retail Statistics) | 20% increase (Q3 2026 (for Construction Industries)) | Measures the rate at which dealers are selling equipment to end customers, providing a real-time indicator of end-market demand, distinct from factory sales which can be influenced by inventory changes. |
Backlog Visibility vs. Growth Deceleration
BULL VIEW
The record $78.1 billion backlog, with orders out to 2030, provides years of locked-in growth, making any near-term quarterly slowdown irrelevant to the long-term value creation story.
CORE TENSION
Can the multi-year visibility from a $78.1 billion backlog offset market fears of a peak, sparked by 'moderate' Q4 growth guidance after a 17% Q3 increase?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bull view. The size and duration of the backlog, a hard metric, provides a stronger signal than a single quarter of forward guidance against a tough comparison.
BEAR VIEW
The 'moderate' Q4 growth guidance is the first sign of a cyclical peak. The massive backlog is just pulled-forward demand that will leave an air pocket in future years.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
in the fourth quarter | First MaK Engine Shipments Watch: First shipments of the restarted 10-megawatt MaK engine platform are planned for the fourth quarter. |
1/25/2027 - 2/17/2027 | Negative Peer Read-Across Watch: Reports of slowing orders, inventory destocking, or weak guidance from peers like Deere and PACCAR. |
1/27/2027 | Negative Earnings Reaction Watch: Q4 revenue deceleration and any weakness in the initial 2027 outlook provided on the earnings call. |
1/27/2027 | Cost Headwind Realization Watch: Confirmation in Q4 results that cost mitigation efforts are insufficient to protect margins from guided tariff/freight headwinds. |
2/3/2027 | Peer Cummins Earnings Report Watch: Peer Cummins (CMI) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/9/2027 | Peer Terex Earnings Report Watch: Peer Terex (TEX) is scheduled to report earnings. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-02 | Acquired Fabick Cat Dealership Details: Caterpillar acquired John Fabick Tractor Company (Fabick), a long-standing Cat dealer with service across Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan. | +0.2% $622.75 -> $623.94 |
2026-10-29 | Reported Q3 Results Details: The company reported Q3 2026 sales of $20.7 billion, an increase of 17%. The two-day stock reaction to the earnings was -13.0%. | -12.7% $713.38 -> $622.75 |
2026-09-30 | Announced Major NC Investment Details: Caterpillar announced its intent to invest approximately $1 billion in North Carolina to expand manufacturing capacity for its Cat Compact business. | -0.0% $824.68 -> $824.39 |
2026-08-04 | Reported Strong Q2 Results Details: The company reported Q2 2026 sales of $20.5 billion, up 24%, and raised its full-year revenue forecast. The stock reacted positively to the news. | +4.9% $828.06 -> $869.01 |
2026-07-07 | Acquired Skycatch Details: Caterpillar acquired Skycatch, a provider of spatial data capture and analysis solutions, to expand its mining technology capabilities. | -2.3% $965.83 -> $944.08 |
2026-06-10 | Quarterly Dividend Increased Details: The Board of Directors raised the quarterly dividend by eight percent, or 12 cents, to $1.63 per share. | -1.9% $910.84 -> $893.84 |
2026-05-12 | Released 2025 Annual Report Details: The company released its 2025 Annual and Sustainability Reports, highlighting strong 2025 performance and a refreshed strategy for profitable growth. | -2.6% $922.88 -> $898.49 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: CAT trades at roughly 37% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (3.7x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
DE - Deere & Company
Agricultural Cycle ExposureDeere offers pure-play exposure to the agricultural and construction cycles, which are currently running counter to Caterpillar's AI-driven power cycle. Peer commentary indicates Deere expects a sales decline in its core ag market.
CMI - Cummins Inc.
Focused Powertrain PlayAs a primary competitor in Power & Energy, Cummins provides more concentrated exposure to engine and power generation markets without the capital intensity of Caterpillar's broader mining and construction equipment businesses.
Caterpillar is evolving from a cyclical industrial manufacturer into a critical infrastructure provider for the AI and data-driven economy.
While traditionally viewed through the lens of construction and mining cycles, Caterpillar's primary growth engine is now its Power & Energy segment. This division is directly benefiting from the massive build-out of data centers, which require reliable prime and backup power solutions that Caterpillar provides. This secular demand driver, with orders extending to 2030, offers a new layer of growth and visibility on top of its established, cyclical industrial businesses.
Announcements of further large-scale power generation orders for data centers, continued backlog growth, and evidence of successful capacity expansion to meet demand.
A significant slowdown in data center capital spending, cancellation of large orders in the backlog, or an inability to execute on capacity expansion plans, leading to market share loss.
Short-term fluctuations in commodity prices or regional construction activity that do not alter the long-term data center demand narrative.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's increasing recognition of the duration and magnitude of the data center power demand cycle, shifting Caterpillar's valuation away from a pure-play cyclical industrial.
Power & Energy
$36.0B TTM (46% of Total)What It Is
Sells reciprocating engines, generator sets, turbines, and locomotives to customers in oil and gas, power generation (including data centers), industrial, marine, and rail applications.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises in energy, transportation, and increasingly, data center operators, pay for reliable power solutions. Data center customers, in particular, require both backup and prime power to support growth in cloud computing and generative AI, and Caterpillar provides a range of solutions to meet this demand.
Competition
Construction Industries
$30.4B TTM (39% of Total)What It Is
Sells a wide range of construction machinery like excavators, loaders, and pavers to customers in infrastructure, building construction, rental, and quarry/aggregates industries.
Who Pays & How
Construction contractors and rental companies pay for productive and reliable equipment. Demand is supported by government infrastructure spending (like the IIJA), non-residential construction, and data center builds.
Competition
Resource Industries
$14.0B TTM (18% of Total)What It Is
Sells large machinery for surface and underground mining, heavy construction, and quarry applications. Products include large trucks, tractors, shovels, and drills.
Who Pays & How
Mining and heavy construction companies pay for highly productive, reliable equipment that provides the lowest total cost of ownership. Demand is driven by commodity prices and the need to extract minerals like copper, iron ore, and gold.
Competition
Financial Products Segment
$4.5B TTM (6% of Total)What It Is
Provides retail and wholesale financing and leasing for Caterpillar products to customers and dealers globally. Also offers insurance and risk management products.
Who Pays & How
Customers and dealers use these services to finance the purchase and lease of Caterpillar equipment. The financing is designed to support the sale of Caterpillar products.
Competition
Caterpillar — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment Resources |
| Equipment World |
| Construction Equipment |
| OEM Off-Highway |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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