Cummins (CMI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $508.77 | Market Cap: $70.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Cummins (CMI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $508.77Market Cap: $70.2 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CMI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points highlighting why Cummins (CMI) stock experienced significant movement between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Report: Cummins Inc. reported Q3 2025 revenues of $8.3 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of approximately $7.97 billion, despite a 2% decline from the previous year. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.59 also beat Street expectations of $4.83, even though reported EPS fell short due to non-cash charges related to its Accelera segment.
2. Robust Performance in Power Systems and Distribution Segments: The company demonstrated strong operational results, particularly in its Power Systems and Distribution segments. The Power Systems segment saw an 18% increase in sales, driven by rising demand for power generation, especially in data center markets, contributing to investor confidence despite headwinds in the engine and components segments.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CMI Return | 31% | -2% | 14% | 2% | 49% | 47% | 225% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 22% | -2% | 29% | 15% | 11% | 142% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CMI Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 67% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 65% | 38% | 58% | 58% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CMI Max Drawdown | -42% | -7% | -14% | -14% | -4% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -7% | -28% | -8% | -5% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CAT, GWW, XYL, IR, FTV. See CMI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CMI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 634 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 74 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -34.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 53.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 582 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 315.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 525 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CAT, GWW, XYL, IR, FTV
In The Past
Cummins's stock fell -32.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -32.6% loss requires a 48.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CMI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Cummins
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Valuation
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Components | 13,409 | 9,736 | 7,665 | 4,650 | 5,253 |
| Engine | 11,684 | 10,945 | 9,954 | 5,925 | 7,570 |
| Distribution | 10,249 | 8,929 | 7,772 | 7,110 | 8,040 |
| Power Systems | 5,673 | 5,033 | 4,415 | 2,055 | 2,670 |
| Accelera | 354 | 198 | 116 | 71 | 38 |
| Intersegment sales | -7,304 | -6,767 | -5,901 | ||
| Total | 34,065 | 28,074 | 24,021 | 19,811 | 23,571 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2122024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2082022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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