Oshkosh (OSK)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $126.18 | Market Cap: $8.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Oshkosh (OSK)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $126.18Market Cap: $8.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 9.1% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -16% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% | Key risksOSK key risks include [1] the cyclicality of its Access Equipment segment and [2] a significant reliance on U.S. Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 9.1% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 41% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -16%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -16% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.5%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.9% |
| Key risksOSK key risks include [1] the cyclicality of its Access Equipment segment and [2] a significant reliance on U.S. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OSK Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss on Revenue and Weakness in Access Segment
Oshkosh reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 29, 2025. While the company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates, its revenue of $2.69 billion fell short of the projected $2.83 billion. A significant contributing factor to this revenue miss was a 19% decline in sales within the Access segment, which recorded $1.11 billion in revenue. This decline was attributed to weaker demand in North America and increased sales discounts. This earnings report led to a 9.4% drop in Oshkosh's stock price on the day of the announcement.
2. Lowered Full-Year 2025 Guidance
Coinciding with its third-quarter 2025 earnings release, Oshkosh revised its full-year 2025 financial outlook. The company adjusted its forecast for diluted adjusted EPS to a range of $10.50 to $11.00, representing a $0.50 reduction from the lower end of its previous guidance. Additionally, the net sales projection was lowered to between $10.3 billion and $10.4 billion, down from the earlier forecast of $10.6 billion. This downward revision in guidance indicated ongoing concerns, particularly regarding sales performance in both the Access and Transport segments.
3. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Cuts
Several financial analysts reacted to Oshkosh's Q3 2025 results and revised outlook by adjusting their ratings and price targets for the stock. Truist Financial, for instance, reduced its price target for Oshkosh from $171.00 to $158.00 on October 30, 2025. Zacks Research downgraded Oshkosh from a "strong-buy" to a "hold" rating on October 6, 2025, followed by Wall Street Zen's downgrade from "buy" to "hold" on December 6, 2025. Furthermore, Argus trimmed its price target from $175 to $160 on December 10, 2025. These adjustments reflect a more cautious sentiment from the investment community.
4. Significant Institutional Selling
During the specified period, Atlantic Investment Management Inc. notably reduced its holdings in Oshkosh. In December 2025, the firm cut its stake by 11.4%, selling shares valued at approximately $23.7 million. Such a substantial institutional sell-off can exert considerable downward pressure on a company's stock price.
5. General Negative Price Trend and Forecasts
The stock exhibited a discernible negative trend within the approximate timeframe. On December 17, 2025, Oshkosh's stock price fell by -1.78% and had experienced a four-day consecutive decline, resulting in a 1.5% decrease over a 10-day period. Forecasting models from Trading Economics also projected a further decline, anticipating Oshkosh to be priced at $128.30 by the end of the current quarter and $116.52 in one year, indicating a general bearish outlook for the company's stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OSK Return | -8% | 33% | -20% | 25% | -11% | 38% | 50% |
| Peers Return | 3% | 31% | 9% | 34% | 26% | 42% | 254% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OSK Win Rate | 42% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 60% | 45% | 58% | 60% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OSK Max Drawdown | -48% | -1% | -37% | -17% | -12% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -48% | -3% | -19% | -11% | -9% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GD, TEX, REVG, PCAR, CAT. See OSK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OSK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,040 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 295 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -45.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 832 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -94.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1577.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,916 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to TSLA, PCAR, WNC, CAT, CMI
In The Past
Oshkosh's stock fell -48.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/17/2021. A -48.7% loss requires a 94.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OSK. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Oshkosh
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 118.93 |
| Mkt Cap | 33.4 |
| Rev LTM | 19,932 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,161 |
| FCF LTM | 1,974 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,660 |
| CFO LTM | 2,846 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,474 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 33.4 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 15.4 |
| P/E | 21.7 |
| P/CFO | 11.2 |
| Total Yield | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 30.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 72.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 10.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 18.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 0.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -9.2% | -12.4% | -7.2% |
| 8/1/2025 | 3.2% | 6.9% | 10.5% |
| 4/30/2025 | -5.1% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | 18.4% | 15.7% | 7.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | -1.3% | -2.5% | 5.0% |
| 7/31/2024 | -5.0% | -13.6% | -6.8% |
| 4/25/2024 | -2.1% | -7.0% | -4.2% |
| 1/30/2024 | 1.0% | -0.6% | -2.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 2.4% | 10.9% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -5.5% | -4.9% |
| Max Positive | 18.4% | 15.7% | 17.8% |
| Max Negative | -9.2% | -13.6% | -16.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1262022 | 10-QT 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |