Hilton Worldwide (HLT)


Market Price (11/4/2026): $363.0 | Market Cap: $80.8 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Hilton Worldwide (HLT)


Market Price (11/4/2026): $363.0
Market Cap: $80.8 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

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Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 24%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 9.5 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.

Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.4x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 27x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 48x

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1%

Key risks
HLT key risks include [1] its substantial level of indebtedness, Show more.

0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 24%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 2.0 Bil
2 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 9.5 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 24%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more.
5 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.2%, Dist 3Y High is -0.2%
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.4x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 27x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 40x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 48x
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1%
8 Key risks
HLT key risks include [1] its substantial level of indebtedness, Show more.

HLT in ETFs

Weight = HLT's share of each fund

SPY0.13%
VOO0.11%
IVV0.12%
VTI0.10%
ITOT0.11%
IWB0.11%
RSP0.23%
VUG0.21%
+21 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

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Updated on 11/1/2026

Hilton Worldwide (HLT) stock has gained about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Upgraded Full-Year Guidance. Hilton Worldwide reported adjusted diluted EPS of $2.45 for fiscal Q3 2026, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.37 by $0.08. The company also raised its full-year 2026 system-wide comparable RevPAR growth projection to between 4.0% and 4.5%, up from prior guidance, and increased its adjusted diluted EPS forecast to between $9.07 and $9.13.

2. Robust System-Wide Performance Driven by Resilient Travel Demand. System-wide comparable RevPAR increased 5.8% on a currency-neutral basis for fiscal Q3 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, primarily due to increases in both occupancy and average daily rates. This performance was buoyed by strong U.S. travel demand, including benefits from the FIFA World Cup, and a resilient global hospitality sector which saw national RevPAR up 5.7% year-over-year in fiscal Q3 2026.

Show more
Updated on 11/1/2026

Hilton Worldwide (HLT) stock has gained about 15% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Beat and Upgraded Full-Year Guidance. Hilton Worldwide reported adjusted diluted EPS of $2.45 for fiscal Q3 2026, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.37 by $0.08. The company also raised its full-year 2026 system-wide comparable RevPAR growth projection to between 4.0% and 4.5%, up from prior guidance, and increased its adjusted diluted EPS forecast to between $9.07 and $9.13.

2. Robust System-Wide Performance Driven by Resilient Travel Demand. System-wide comparable RevPAR increased 5.8% on a currency-neutral basis for fiscal Q3 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, primarily due to increases in both occupancy and average daily rates. This performance was buoyed by strong U.S. travel demand, including benefits from the FIFA World Cup, and a resilient global hospitality sector which saw national RevPAR up 5.7% year-over-year in fiscal Q3 2026.

3. Significant Capital Return to Shareholders. Hilton demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder returns by repurchasing 2.6 million shares of common stock for approximately $845 million during fiscal Q3 2026. This contributed to a total capital return, including dividends, of $879 million for the quarter and $2.902 billion year-to-date through October, with projections for approximately $3.5 billion in total capital returns for the full year 2026.

4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Upgraded Price Targets. Following the strong fiscal Q3 2026 results and a favorable outlook, several analysts raised their price targets for Hilton Worldwide. Mizuho upgraded the stock to "Outperform" from "Neutral" and increased its price target to $421 from $329, while Argus set a target price of $410 and maintained a "Buy" rating, reflecting increased confidence in the company's growth prospects. Deutsche Bank also upgraded HLT to a "Buy" rating in August and raised its price target to $365.

5. Continued Expansion with Record Development Pipeline. Hilton approved 30,500 new rooms for development during fiscal Q3 2026, growing its total development pipeline to 543,100 rooms as of September 30, 2026, representing a 5% increase from September 30, 2025. The company added 27,000 rooms to its system, resulting in 23,000 net additional rooms for the third quarter, contributing to a net unit growth of 6.0% from the prior year.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 13.6% change in HLT stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)731202611032026Change
Stock Price ($)320.34363.8313.6%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)12,48512,6901.6%
Net Income Margin (%)12.7%13.4%5.6%
P/E Multiple45.947.94.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2272241.3%
Cumulative Contribution13.6%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2026 to 11/3/2026
ReturnCorrelation
HLT13.6% 
Market (SPY)1.0%1.3%
Sector (XLY)1.1%30.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 12.4% change in HLT stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 6.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)430202611032026Change
Stock Price ($)323.77363.8312.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)12,28112,6903.3%
Net Income Margin (%)12.6%13.4%6.7%
P/E Multiple48.147.9-0.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2292242.2%
Cumulative Contribution12.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 11/3/2026
ReturnCorrelation
HLT12.4% 
Market (SPY)5.2%13.4%
Sector (XLY)-0.7%31.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 41.9% change in HLT stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)1031202511032026Change
Stock Price ($)256.46363.8341.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)11,73512,6908.1%
Net Income Margin (%)14.2%13.4%-5.6%
P/E Multiple36.047.933.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2342244.5%
Cumulative Contribution41.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 11/3/2026
ReturnCorrelation
HLT41.9% 
Market (SPY)11.5%33.3%
Sector (XLY)-1.6%44.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 141.9% change in HLT stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 62.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)1031202311032026Change
Stock Price ($)150.42363.83141.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)10,07012,69026.0%
Net Income Margin (%)13.1%13.4%2.0%
P/E Multiple29.647.962.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)26022416.1%
Cumulative Contribution141.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2023 to 11/3/2026
ReturnCorrelation
HLT141.9% 
Market (SPY)86.6%56.4%
Sector (XLY)57.8%59.0%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
HLT Return40%-19%45%36%16%27%232%
Peers Return35%-13%28%19%-7%28%112%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%101%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
HLT Win Rate50%50%67%75%67%73% 
Peers Win Rate58%40%57%58%52%64% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%36% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
HLT Max Drawdown-14%-33%-14%-12%-26%-14% 
Peers Max Drawdown-17%-32%-19%-18%-35%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MAR, H, WH, CHH, HST. See HLT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/3/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventHLTS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-25.3%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven33.8%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven85 days79 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-11.4%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven12.9%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven108 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-28.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven40.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven387 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-50.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven101.1%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven279 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-16.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven19.9%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven35 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-33.8%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven51.0%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven312 days62 days

Compare to MAR, H, WH, CHH, HST

In The Past

Hilton Worldwide's stock fell -25.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 33.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventHLTS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-25.3%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven33.8%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven85 days79 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-28.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven40.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven387 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-50.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven101.1%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven279 days140 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-33.8%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven51.0%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven312 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-31.8%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven46.5%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven300 days15 days

Compare to MAR, H, WH, CHH, HST

In The Past

Hilton Worldwide's stock fell -25.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 33.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Hilton Worldwide (HLT)

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is a leading global hospitality company that operates by owning, leasing, managing, developing, and franchising a vast portfolio of hotels and resorts. The company primarily generates revenue through two segments: managing properties for other owners and licensing its established brands to independent operators (Management and Franchise), and directly owning or leasing properties itself (Ownership).

The core products and services Hilton offers are lodging experiences across a wide range of hotel brands, catering to diverse traveler preferences and budgets. These include luxury brands like Waldorf Astoria, full-service options such as Hilton Hotels & Resorts and DoubleTree, and focused-service or extended-stay brands like Hampton by Hilton and Homewood Suites. Essentially, Hilton sells hotel stays and brand recognition, ensuring consistent quality and amenities across its nearly 7,000 properties.

Hilton's primary customers are individual and business travelers seeking accommodation for leisure, business trips, or extended stays. Its extensive global footprint covers North America, South America, Central America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific, serving a broad international market across 122 countries and territories.

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  • Marriott International for hotels.
  • McDonald's, but for hotel brands and properties.

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  • Hotel Management Services: Hilton provides comprehensive management services for hotels and resorts owned by third parties, overseeing daily operations, marketing, and guest services.
  • Hotel Franchising Services: Hilton licenses its diverse portfolio of hotel brands to independent owners and operators, providing them with brand recognition, reservation systems, and operational support.
  • Lodging and Hospitality Services: Hilton directly operates and offers accommodation, dining, and various hospitality amenities to guests at its owned and leased hotels and resorts worldwide.

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Hilton Worldwide (HLT) primarily serves individuals and groups who utilize its hotel and resort properties.

The major categories of customers Hilton serves are:

  1. Leisure Travelers: Individuals and families who stay at Hilton properties for vacations, personal travel, recreation, or weekend getaways.
  2. Business Travelers: Individuals who stay at Hilton properties for work-related purposes, including corporate meetings, conferences, training sessions, or individual business trips.
  3. Group Travelers & Event Planners: Organizations, companies, or individuals booking blocks of rooms or event spaces for conferences, conventions, social gatherings, weddings, and other organized events.

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Christopher J. Nassetta, President & Chief Executive Officer

Christopher J. Nassetta was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Hilton in December 2007. Before joining Hilton, he served as President and CEO of Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. from 2000. He co-founded Bailey Capital Corporation in 1991, a private real estate investment and advisory firm where he oversaw operations. Prior to that, he spent seven years at The Oliver Carr Company, rising to Chief Development Officer. Nassetta played a key role in transforming Hilton after its 2007 acquisition by Blackstone, converting what was initially a challenging private equity investment into a highly profitable one. He is recognized in the finance and real estate business as a restructuring expert who can fix struggling companies.

Kevin Jacobs, Chief Financial Officer and President, Global Development

Kevin Jacobs is the Chief Financial Officer for Hilton, leading the company's finance, real estate, and corporate strategy functions globally. He joined Hilton in 2008 as Senior Vice President, Corporate Strategy, was elected Treasurer in 2009, appointed Executive Vice President & Chief of Staff in 2012, and assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer in 2013. From 2020 to 2025, Jacobs also held the position of President, Global Development. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc., an equity REIT.

Laura Fuentes, Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer

Laura Fuentes joined Hilton in 2013 and was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer in 2020. In this role, she is responsible for human resources and leads Hilton Supply Management. Before her time at Hilton, Fuentes spent six years at Capital One Financial in various corporate strategy and human resources positions. Prior to Capital One, she worked at McKinsey & Company in their Madrid, New York, and Washington D.C. offices, advising clients in the financial services and non-profit sectors.

Danny Hughes, Executive Vice President and President, Americas

Danny Hughes is the Executive Vice President and President of the Americas for Hilton, where he is responsible for the company's operations across North, Central, and South America, encompassing over 6,600 hotels. With 35 years of experience in the hospitality industry, he previously served as SVP and Commercial Director in the Americas and SVP, Caribbean and Latin America at Hilton. His career in hospitality began as a chef in his parents' pub in the UK.

Chris Silcock, President, Global Brands and Commercial Services

Chris Silcock serves as President, Global Brands and Commercial Services for Hilton. He leads efforts to drive market-leading performance and innovation across Hilton's global portfolio. His responsibilities include global brand strategy and management, performance support, owner relations, technology, sales, revenue management, distribution, enterprise data and analytics, customer engagement, marketing, and loyalty.

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Here are the key risks to Hilton Worldwide (HLT):

  1. Economic Sensitivity and Macroeconomic Factors

    Hilton Worldwide's business is highly susceptible to the broader economic environment, as both leisure and corporate travel tend to decline during periods of economic downturn, recession, or reduced business activity, leading to lower occupancy rates and Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR). Rising interest rates can also increase borrowing costs for Hilton and its third-party hotel owners, potentially hampering expansion efforts and profitability. Furthermore, inflationary pressures, particularly in labor, utilities, and food costs, can erode profit margins if the company cannot offset these increases with higher room rates. Global geopolitical events, such as wars or political instability, can also negatively impact travel patterns and consumer confidence.
  2. Cybersecurity Threats and Data Security

    The hospitality industry, including Hilton, is a prime target for cyberattacks due to the extensive amount of sensitive customer data, including personally identifiable information and payment details, that it processes and stores. A significant cybersecurity breach could result in substantial legal liabilities, regulatory penalties, severe damage to the company's brand reputation, and operational disruptions. The necessity to continually update information technology systems and keep pace with technological advancements, including artificial intelligence, also presents ongoing risks to operations and competitive positioning.
  3. Dependence on Third-Party Hotel Owners and Franchisees

    Hilton's "asset-light" business model relies heavily on management and franchise contracts with third-party hotel owners. This model introduces several risks, including the necessity of maintaining strong relationships with these owners and ensuring the renewal of contracts. Owners may also terminate contracts if specified financial or performance criteria are not met. Additionally, the growth of Hilton's management and franchise business is influenced by external market factors affecting real estate development, such as site availability and financing costs, and negative pricing trends in the industry for management and franchise fees could adversely affect its ability to negotiate favorable terms.

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The continued growth and diversification of short-term rental platforms, most notably Airbnb, poses an emerging threat. These platforms offer alternative lodging options that directly compete with Hilton's various hotel brands for leisure, family, and increasingly, business travelers. They provide different value propositions, such as unique local experiences, more space, or potentially lower costs for extended stays, thereby attracting customers who might otherwise opt for a traditional hotel stay.

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Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) operates within the global hospitality industry, with its primary products and services encompassing hotel ownership, leasing, management, development, and franchising.

The addressable markets for Hilton Worldwide's main products and services are as follows:

  • Global Hotels Market (Hotel Ownership and Operations): The global hotels market size was valued at USD 2,080.57 billion in 2025. This market is projected to grow from USD 2,197.80 billion in 2026 to USD 3,931.42 billion by 2034, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.54% during the forecast period.
  • Global Hotel Franchising Market: The global hotel franchise market size was valued at USD 46.31 billion in 2024. It is projected to reach USD 83.83 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 7.7% from 2025-2032.
  • Global Hotel Management Market: The global hotel management market size was USD 3,625.2 million (USD 3.625 billion) in 2024. This market, valued at USD 3.5 billion in 2021, is projected to reach over USD 7.25 billion by 2033, expanding at a CAGR of 6.275%.

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Hilton Worldwide (HLT) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:

  1. Aggressive Net Unit Growth and Global Expansion: Hilton is focused on expanding its global footprint, targeting a net unit growth of 6% to 7% for both 2025 and 2026. This expansion is supported by a record-breaking development pipeline, with approximately 60% of new rooms located outside the United States, particularly in high-growth markets such as Asia Pacific and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA). The company also leverages conversions, which accounted for roughly 40% of room openings in 2025, to accelerate growth and add fee-generating properties efficiently.
  2. Comparable System-Wide RevPAR Growth: Hilton projects continued growth in comparable system-wide Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR). For the full year 2024, growth was projected between 2% and 4% on a comparable currency basis, with 2025 estimates ranging from 0% to 2% and 2026 forecasts at 1% to 2%. This growth is expected to be fueled by strong international performance, robust group and leisure demand, and an increase in Average Daily Rate (ADR).
  3. Diversification of Brand Portfolio and Market Segments: The company is strategically expanding its brand portfolio to capture a broader market share and cater to evolving traveler needs. This includes a strong emphasis on growing the all-inclusive and extended-stay segments, with the introduction of brands like LivSmart Studios. Hilton is also expanding its luxury and lifestyle brands globally, including recent acquisitions like Graduate Hotels and partnerships such as NoMad and Small Luxury Hotels of the World (SLH), and launching new brands like the Apartment Collection and Outset Collection.
  4. Enhanced Hilton Honors Loyalty Program: Hilton continues to invest in and enhance its Hilton Honors loyalty program to drive repeat business and increase guest satisfaction. Approaching 226 million members, the program has seen updates like a faster path to elite status and a new premium tier, which are designed to improve member engagement and drive demand across its portfolio.
  5. Asset-Light Business Model Driving Fee Revenue: Hilton operates primarily on an asset-light model, where a significant portion of its revenue is derived from high-margin management and franchise fees. As the company aggressively expands its global presence and increases its net unit count, the recurring fee revenue from these new and existing properties is a direct driver of top-line growth. This model provides a strong buffer and consistent profitability, even amidst varying market conditions.
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Capital Allocation Decisions for Hilton Worldwide (HLT) (Last 3-5 Years)

Share Repurchases

  • Hilton repurchased $2.3 billion of shares in 2023.
  • In 2022, the company repurchased $1.608 billion of common stock.
  • As of January 2026, Hilton's Board of Directors authorized an additional $3.5 billion for share repurchases, bringing the total amount authorized for future repurchases to approximately $4.6 billion.

Share Issuance

  • Hilton Worldwide Holdings did not report any significant share issuances in the last 3-5 years. The number of shares outstanding has generally decreased, reflecting the impact of share repurchase programs.

Outbound Investments

  • In March 2024, Hilton announced an agreement to acquire the Graduate Hotels® brand for $210 million, with existing properties entering into long-term Hilton franchise agreements.
  • In April 2024, Hilton announced the acquisition of a majority controlling interest in Sydell Group, the owner of NoMad Hotels, with plans to expand the luxury lifestyle brand globally.

Capital Expenditures

  • Total capital expenditures were $247 million in 2023.
  • In 2022, capital expenditures amounted to $102 million.
  • For 2024, capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $96 million.
  • The primary focus of capital expenditures includes spending on technology, buildings and leasehold improvements to support sales and marketing, resort operations, and corporate activities, as well as renovations of existing assets to maintain competitiveness.

Better Bets vs. Hilton Worldwide (HLT)

Peer Outperformance in Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

HLT has outperformed 90% of its 20 Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines peers over 5Y. Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines ranks 3rd of 22 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return. That makes it one of the strongest corners of the sector.
Share of Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines constituents that HLT has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
75%
of 20 industry peers · 40.7% return
3Y
75%
of 20 industry peers · 133.7% return
5Y
90%
of 20 industry peers · 154.0% return
No Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten HLT by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines is HLT's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services 14 0.1%34.3%72.3% CVSA 238% · GHC 107% · LRN 103%
Homebuilding 17 1.3%26.1%31.2% PHM 175% · TOL 160% · CVCO 150%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines ← 21 23.2%62.4%17.1% RCL 261% · MAR 164% · HLT 154%
Automotive Retail 17 -1.9%11.9%8.5% MUSA 207% · PAG 119% · ORLY 117%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -9.3%16.3%0.6% HD 3% · LOW 1% · FND -66%
Home Furnishings 3 1.8%71.0%0.0% SGI 52% · MHK -18%
Footwear 9 85.9%83.0%-11.4% DECK 24% · SHOO 1% · CROX -11%
Restaurants 36 4.1%-5.9%-14.7% EAT 401% · CAKE 191% · TXRH 127%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -6.1%37.2%-17.5% HRB 159% · FTDR 124% · ADT 25%
Distributors 4 -7.0%-16.6%-24.9% ARMK 111% · GPC 7% · POOL -57%
Leisure Products 14 -11.7%-13.3%-34.4% GOLF 71% · HAS 53% · BC -11%
Household Appliances 18 13.7%18.3%-34.9%
Leisure Facilities 12 -5.8%1.2%-41.8% OSW 167% · LTH 153% · PLNT -33%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 21.3%61.7%-45.0% BBY -5% · GME -56%
Apparel Retail 27 -0.7%2.1%-45.7% ANF 240% · TJX 116% · ROST 108%
Broadline Retail 12 -1.6%19.8%-46.4% EBAY 72% · AMZN 48% · OLLI 21%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 37 -14.4%-27.4%-46.7% GTX 200% · PATK 71% · ALV 36%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 29 11.0%29.3%-50.7% RL 254% · TPR 229% · KTB 61%
Casinos & Gaming 21 -23.6%-18.7%-52.4% MCRI 79% · RRR 31% · BYD 19%
Other Specialty Retail 25 -7.7%-15.4%-58.1% ULTA 66% · ASO 35% · DKS 17%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -14.9%-45.7%-71.0% GM 65% · TSLA -2% · F -10%
Consumer Electronics 11 -36.6%-36.2%-81.0% GRMN 110%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

HLTMARHWHCHHHSTMedian
NameHilton W.Marriott.Hyatt Ho.Wyndham .Choice H.Host Hot. 
Mkt Price363.00412.00185.4479.06118.9825.75152.21
Mkt Cap81.3108.717.45.95.417.617.5
Rev LTM12,69026,9047,1091,4461,6196,2196,664
Op Inc LTM3,0474,233596526413893744
FCF LTM1,8393,1321744421151,017730
FCF 3Y Avg1,9472,502293364141905635
CFO LTM2,0143,7283285112221,6061,058
CFO 3Y Avg2,1393,1334674232761,491979

Growth & Margins

HLTMARHWHCHHHSTMedian
NameHilton W.Marriott.Hyatt Ho.Wyndham .Choice H.Host Hot. 
Rev Chg LTM8.1%4.7%2.8%0.7%2.6%4.9%3.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.0%5.5%2.5%0.8%1.8%6.0%4.0%
Rev Chg Q6.6%4.8%-2.4%7.3%3.4%3.4%4.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.6%1.2%-0.6%2.0%0.9%0.9%1.1%
Op Inc Chg LTM18.1%7.2%32.4%-11.3%-13.3%9.2%8.2%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg9.7%1.6%16.7%2.3%-3.6%3.5%2.9%
Op Mgn LTM24.0%15.7%8.4%36.4%25.5%14.4%19.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg22.3%15.7%6.7%38.8%27.6%13.9%19.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.7%-0.3%1.3%-1.2%-1.5%0.3%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM15.9%13.9%4.6%35.3%13.7%25.8%14.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg18.2%12.2%6.8%29.6%17.5%25.4%17.8%
FCF/Rev LTM14.5%11.6%2.4%30.6%7.1%16.4%13.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg16.5%9.7%4.3%25.5%8.9%15.4%12.6%

Valuation

HLTMARHWHCHHHSTMedian
NameHilton W.Marriott.Hyatt Ho.Wyndham .Choice H.Host Hot. 
Mkt Cap81.3108.717.45.95.417.617.5
P/S6.44.02.54.13.32.83.7
P/Op Inc26.725.729.311.113.019.722.7
P/EBIT26.725.128.713.610.813.319.3
P/E47.842.093.729.016.417.235.5
P/CFO40.429.253.211.524.211.026.7
Total Yield2.3%3.0%1.4%6.8%7.1%9.5%4.9%
Dividend Yield0.2%0.7%0.3%3.3%1.0%3.7%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.1%3.1%2.0%6.3%2.7%7.0%3.1%
D/E0.20.20.30.50.40.30.3
Net D/E0.20.20.20.50.40.20.2

Returns

HLTMARHWHCHHHSTMedian
NameHilton W.Marriott.Hyatt Ho.Wyndham .Choice H.Host Hot. 
1M Rtn13.7%14.8%16.7%10.1%16.1%14.1%14.5%
3M Rtn16.4%19.6%6.9%4.6%9.9%4.0%8.4%
6M Rtn16.2%16.7%14.7%-0.5%16.5%26.6%16.3%
12M Rtn40.4%57.4%36.2%8.9%30.3%72.3%38.3%
3Y Rtn133.2%121.5%79.3%12.3%6.5%85.1%82.2%
1M Excs Rtn17.8%18.7%21.3%14.0%22.5%17.7%18.3%
3M Excs Rtn14.2%16.6%6.1%6.9%9.1%5.7%8.0%
6M Excs Rtn12.3%12.8%10.8%-4.4%12.6%22.7%12.4%
12M Excs Rtn31.3%49.3%25.2%-0.1%19.2%63.2%28.2%
3Y Excs Rtn62.2%46.4%5.9%-64.8%-72.2%23.0%14.5%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Cost reimbursement revenues7,0856,4285,827  
Management and franchise3,5753,3393,0552,6191,809
Ownership1,2331,2551,2441,076598
Other revenues25223217810279
Intersegment fees elimination-49-30-26-23-10
Amortization of contract acquisition costs-57-50-43-38-32
Other revenues from managed and franchised properties   5,0373,344
Total12,03911,17410,2358,7735,788


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20232022202120202019
Management and franchise3,0552,6191,8091,1382,315
Ownership7754-91-202125
Other revenues, less other expenses6642341329
Gain\Loss on sale of assets, net0 -7 81
Impairment losses-38 0-258 
Amortization of contract acquisition costs-43-38-32-29-29
Depreciation and amortization expenses-147-162-188-331-346
Net other expenses from managed and franchised properties-337-39-110-397-77
General and administrative expenses-408-382-405-311-441
Reorganization costs   -41 
Total2,2252,0941,010-4181,657


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20212020201920182017
Management and franchise11,40411,06511,45511,36211,454
Corporate and other2,9764,4481,8921,7061,890
Ownership1,0611,2421,610927964
Total15,44116,75514,95713,99514,308


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$363.83 
Market Cap ($ Bil)81.5 
First Trading Date12/12/2013 
Distance from 52W High-0.2% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$326.45$321.30
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA11.5%13.2%
 3M1YR
Volatility23.1%23.9%
Downside Capture7.5945.77
Upside Capture87.9882.77
Correlation (S&P 500)12.3%33.3%
HLT Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.610.410.070.280.630.85
Up Beta-3.26-1.36-1.51-0.220.790.84
Down Beta0.430.550.600.390.710.92
Up Capture204%109%56%44%62%73%
Bmk +ve Days12182862130427
Stock +ve Days14243263128406
Down Capture3%3%-3%28%47%90%
Bmk -ve Days10253664121325
Stock -ve Days8193263123345

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with HLT
HLT42.1%23.9%1.40-
Sector ETF (XLY)-1.6%19.1%-0.2244.7%
Equity (SPY)11.6%12.8%0.5733.3%
Gold (GLD)-2.4%28.6%-0.1015.3%
Commodities (DBC)42.0%20.9%1.56-34.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)10.6%13.7%0.4843.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-29.9%43.5%-0.709.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with HLT
HLT20.6%26.8%0.69-
Sector ETF (XLY)4.3%24.1%0.1464.4%
Equity (SPY)12.0%17.1%0.5262.7%
Gold (GLD)16.5%19.0%0.694.7%
Commodities (DBC)8.3%19.6%0.314.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.0%18.9%-0.0648.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)5.0%51.5%0.2825.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with HLT
HLT23.2%28.8%0.77-
Sector ETF (XLY)12.5%22.2%0.5162.7%
Equity (SPY)15.2%17.9%0.7160.7%
Gold (GLD)11.5%16.5%0.570.6%
Commodities (DBC)7.8%18.1%0.3416.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.4%20.7%0.2249.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)61.1%66.2%1.0114.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302026-11.5%
Average Daily Volume1.3 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.9 days
Basic Shares Quantity224.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.2%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 11/4/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/27/2026-2.1%3.6% 
7/28/2026-2.5%-5.0%-0.4%
4/28/2026-2.7%-6.3%1.3%
2/11/20260.4%-2.4%-9.1%
10/22/20253.4%-1.9%0.4%
7/23/2025-2.6%-0.3%-1.4%
4/29/20252.2%7.8%13.2%
2/6/20254.9%6.1%-4.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121213
# Negative131311
Median Positive2.5%3.7%5.4%
Median Negative-2.1%-2.4%-4.1%
Max Positive7.5%15.0%20.4%
Max Negative-4.4%-14.2%-10.8%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/27/2026-2.1%3.6% 
7/28/2026-2.5%-5.0%-0.4%
4/28/2026-2.7%-6.3%1.3%
2/11/20260.4%-2.4%-9.1%
10/22/20253.4%-1.9%0.4%
7/23/2025-2.6%-0.3%-1.4%
4/29/20252.2%7.8%13.2%
2/6/20254.9%6.1%-4.1%
10/23/2024-1.9%0.4%5.1%
8/7/2024-1.7%-0.9%4.4%
4/24/20243.9%0.1%3.8%
2/7/20240.7%-2.3%5.4%
10/25/20230.7%1.3%14.4%
7/26/2023-0.6%2.3%-0.8%
4/26/2023-3.4%-0.3%-6.4%
2/9/20232.4%3.7%-4.5%
10/26/2022-0.5%2.4%6.2%
7/27/20227.5%7.0%10.9%
5/3/2022-4.2%-14.2%-10.8%
2/16/2022-1.1%-9.3%-4.3%
10/27/20211.9%-2.2%0.6%
7/29/20213.8%-4.0%-3.0%
5/5/2021-4.4%-5.0%-4.0%
2/17/2021-1.9%7.3%11.9%
11/4/20202.7%15.0%20.4%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121213
# Negative131311
Median Positive2.5%3.7%5.4%
Median Negative-2.1%-2.4%-4.1%
Max Positive7.5%15.0%20.4%
Max Negative-4.4%-14.2%-10.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202610/27/202610-Q
06/30/202607/28/202610-Q
03/31/202604/28/202610-Q
12/31/202502/11/202610-K
09/30/202510/22/202510-Q
06/30/202507/23/202510-Q
03/31/202504/29/202510-Q
12/31/202402/06/202510-K
09/30/202410/23/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202404/24/202410-Q
12/31/202302/07/202410-K
09/30/202310/25/202310-Q
06/30/202307/26/202310-Q
03/31/202304/26/202310-Q
12/31/202202/09/202310-K
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202610/27/202610-Q
06/30/202607/28/202610-Q
03/31/202604/28/202610-Q
12/31/202502/11/202610-K
09/30/202510/22/202510-Q
06/30/202507/23/202510-Q
03/31/202504/29/202510-Q
12/31/202402/06/202510-K
09/30/202410/23/202410-Q
06/30/202408/07/202410-Q
03/31/202404/24/202410-Q
12/31/202302/07/202410-K
09/30/202310/25/202310-Q
06/30/202307/26/202310-Q
03/31/202304/26/202310-Q
12/31/202202/09/202310-K
09/30/202210/26/202210-Q
06/30/202207/27/202210-Q
03/31/202205/03/202210-Q
12/31/202102/16/202210-K
09/30/202110/27/202110-Q
06/30/202107/29/202110-Q
03/31/202105/05/202110-Q
12/31/202002/17/202110-K
09/30/202011/04/202010-Q
06/30/202008/06/202010-Q
03/31/202005/07/202010-Q
12/31/201902/11/202010-K

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 10/28/2026

Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/27/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR GrowthReported3.0%3.25%3.5% -0.8%Lower NewGuidance: 4.0% for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported1.05 Bil1.06 Bil1.07 Bil1.1% Higher NewGuidance: 1.04 Bil for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Net IncomeReported508.00 Mil515.00 Mil522.00 Mil1.2% Higher NewGuidance: 509.00 Mil for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Diluted EPSReported2.252.282.312.2% Higher NewGuidance: 2.23 for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Diluted EPS, adjusted for special itemsReported2.322.352.38   
2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR GrowthReported4.0%4.25%4.5% 1.0%RaisedGuidance: 3.25% for 2026
2026 Capital returnReported 3.50 Bil 0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 3.50 Bil for 2026
2026 General and administrative expensesReported 400.00 Mil    
2026 Net unit growthReported6.0%6.5%7.0%   
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported4.06 Bil4.07 Bil4.08 Bil0.2% RaisedGuidance: 4.06 Bil for 2026
2026 Net IncomeReported1.91 Bil1.92 Bil1.92 Bil1.0% RaisedGuidance: 1.90 Bil for 2026
2026 Diluted EPSReported8.388.418.441.5% RaisedGuidance: 8.29 for 2026
2026 Diluted EPS, adjusted for special itemsReported9.079.19.13   
2026 Contract acquisition costs and capital expendituresReported350.00 Mil362.50 Mil375.00 Mil20.8% RaisedGuidance: 300.00 Mil for 2026


Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/28/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q3 2026 Revenue GrowthReported 4.0%  1.5%Higher NewGuidance: 2.5% for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported1.03 Bil1.04 Bil1.05 Bil2.0% Higher NewGuidance: 1.02 Bil for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Net IncomeReported502.00 Mil509.00 Mil516.00 Mil2.2% Higher NewGuidance: 498.00 Mil for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 EPSReported2.22.232.26   
2026 DividendsReported 3.50 Bil 0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 3.50 Bil for 2026
2026 Revenue GrowthReported3.0%3.25%  0.8%RaisedGuidance: 2.5% for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported4.04 Bil4.06 Bil4.08 Bil0.5% RaisedGuidance: 4.04 Bil for 2026
2026 Net IncomeReported1.88 Bil1.90 Bil1.91 Bil-1.4% LoweredGuidance: 1.92 Bil for 2026
2026 EPSReported8.228.298.35   
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported 300.00 Mil 0.0% AffirmedGuidance: 300.00 Mil for 2026

Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR growthReported2.0%2.5%3.0%   
Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported1.01 Bil1.02 Bil1.03 Bil   
Q2 2026 Net IncomeReported491.00 Mil498.00 Mil505.00 Mil   
2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR growthReported2.0%2.5%3.0% 1.0%RaisedGuidance: 1.5% for 2026
2026 Capital ReturnReported 3.50 Bil 0 AffirmedGuidance: 3.50 Bil for 2026
2026 Net unit growthReported6.0%6.5%7.0% 0AffirmedGuidance: 6.5% for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported4.02 Bil4.04 Bil4.06 Bil0.5% RaisedGuidance: 4.02 Bil for 2026
2026 Net IncomeReported1.91 Bil1.92 Bil1.94 Bil-3.7% LoweredGuidance: 2.00 Bil for 2026
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported 300.00 Mil    

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/11/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR growthReported1.0%1.5%2.0% 0.5%Higher NewActual: 1.0% for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported875.00 Mil885.00 Mil895.00 Mil-3.9% Lower NewActual: 921.00 Mil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Net IncomeReported436.00 Mil443.00 Mil450.00 Mil-1.9% Lower NewActual: 451.50 Mil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Diluted EPSReported1.871.91.93-0.8% Lower NewActual: 1.92 for Q4 2025
2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR growthReported1.0%1.5%2.0% 1.0%Higher NewActual: 0.5% for 2025
2026 Capital ReturnReported 3.50 Bil 6.1% Higher NewActual: 3.30 Bil for 2025
2026 Net Unit GrowthReported6.0%6.5%7.0% -0.2%Lower NewActual: 6.75% for 2025
2026 Adjusted EBITDAReported4.00 Bil4.02 Bil4.04 Bil8.6% Higher NewActual: 3.70 Bil for 2025
2026 Net IncomeReported1.98 Bil2.00 Bil2.01 Bil23.7% Higher NewActual: 1.61 Bil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 10/30/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Jacobs, Kevin JSee RemarksDirectSell10302026356.19151,05053,802,435104,633,536Form
2Fuentes, LauraSee RemarksDirectSell9152026309.817,2892,258,21810,365,681Form
3Carr, Chris DirectSell9152026310.34439136,2392,560,861Form
4Nassetta, Christopher JSee RemarksDirectSell2182026317.47114,28936,283,55911,570,268Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Jacobs, Kevin JSee RemarksDirectSell10302026356.19151,05053,802,435104,633,536Form
2Fuentes, LauraSee RemarksDirectSell9152026309.817,2892,258,21810,365,681Form
3Carr, Chris DirectSell9152026310.34439136,2392,560,861Form
4Nassetta, Christopher JSee RemarksDirectSell2182026317.47114,28936,283,55911,570,268Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Nov 4, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Gray Foundation$222.5 Mil56.1%11Hold13F
Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP$92.1 Mil12.1%10ADD +35.5%13F
GFI Investment Counsel Ltd.$75.6 Mil10.3%24New13F
Foxhaven Asset Management, LP$324.4 Mil10.2%14TRIM -8.3%13F
Hudson Way Capital Management LLC$80.2 Mil7.7%16TRIM -22.1%13F
One Madison Group LLC$37.4 Mil4.3%28ADD +11.9%13F
Broad Run Investment Management, LLC$19.5 Mil3.4%24Hold13F
Skye Global Management LP$127.7 Mil2.8%44Hold13F
Kensico Capital Management Corp$98.1 Mil2.0%20Hold13F
Archon Partners LLC$15.4 Mil1.8%39Hold13F
Legacy CG, LLC$5.8 Mil1.6%45Hold13F
PineStone Asset Management Inc.$224.0 Mil1.6%44TRIM -7.1%13F
Stony Point Capital LLC$18.6 Mil1.5%31New13F
Hazelview Securities Inc.$5.9 Mil1.1%45TRIM -55.7%13F
Lone Pine Capital LLC$27.1 Mil0.2%36ADD +54.4%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
GFI Investment Counsel Ltd.$75.6 Mil10.3%24New13F
Stony Point Capital LLC$18.6 Mil1.5%31New13F
Lone Pine Capital LLC$27.1 Mil0.2%36ADD +54.4%13F
Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP$92.1 Mil12.1%10ADD +35.5%13F
One Madison Group LLC$37.4 Mil4.3%28ADD +11.9%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.$870.0 Mil5.6%11ExitedDec 31, 202513F
BLS Capital Fondsmaeglerselskab A/S$293.3 Mil9.9%12ExitedDec 31, 202513F
SurgoCap Partners LP$144.7 Mil4.0%17ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Consulta Ltd$86.2 Mil4.2%14ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Hazelview Securities Inc.$5.9 Mil1.1%45TRIM -55.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Hudson Way Capital Management LLC$80.2 Mil7.7%16TRIM -22.1%Mar 31, 202613F
Foxhaven Asset Management, LP$324.4 Mil10.2%14TRIM -8.3%Mar 31, 202613F
PineStone Asset Management Inc.$224.0 Mil1.6%44TRIM -7.1%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Foxhaven Asset Management, LP$324.4 Mil10.2%14TRIM -8.3%13F
PineStone Asset Management Inc.$224.0 Mil1.6%44TRIM -7.1%13F
Gray Foundation$222.5 Mil56.1%11Hold13F
Skye Global Management LP$127.7 Mil2.8%44Hold13F
Kensico Capital Management Corp$98.1 Mil2.0%20Hold13F
Camrose Capital Investment Partners LLP$92.1 Mil12.1%10ADD +35.5%13F
Hudson Way Capital Management LLC$80.2 Mil7.7%16TRIM -22.1%13F
GFI Investment Counsel Ltd.$75.6 Mil10.3%24New13F
One Madison Group LLC$37.4 Mil4.3%28ADD +11.9%13F
Lone Pine Capital LLC$27.1 Mil0.2%36ADD +54.4%13F
Broad Run Investment Management, LLC$19.5 Mil3.4%24Hold13F
Stony Point Capital LLC$18.6 Mil1.5%31New13F
Archon Partners LLC$15.4 Mil1.8%39Hold13F
Hazelview Securities Inc.$5.9 Mil1.1%45TRIM -55.7%13F
Legacy CG, LLC$5.8 Mil1.6%45Hold13F

HLT Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

High Conviction

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Conviction is high due to the exceptional visibility of Hilton's primary growth driver. The company has nearly 20% of all hotel rooms under construction globally, 3.5 times its current market share. This pipeline supports a multi-year outlook for 6% to 7% annual unit growth, which directly translates into high-margin, recurring fee revenue for its asset-light model.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Franchise & Royalty

(Total System Rooms) x (Occupancy) x (Average Daily Rate) x (Effective Fee Rate) Incremental net unit growth, as new rooms add high-margin, recurring fee streams with minimal associated corporate cost, driving significant operating leverage.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can the development pipeline fuel sustained market share gains?

Evidence points to a multi-year runway for capturing a disproportionate share of global hotel growth.

Mechanism: Adding new rooms via its asset-light model drives high-margin fee growth. A record 543,100-room pipeline and a multi-year target of 6-7% annual net unit growth underpins future earnings.
Supporting Evidence:
  • New construction starts surged over 40% year-over-year in the latest quarter.
  • The development pipeline reached a record 543,100 rooms as of September 30, 2026.
  • Management guides for 6% to 7% annual net unit growth for the next several years.
  • Hilton accounts for nearly 20% of global hotel rooms under construction.
  • Net unit growth for the last twelve months was a robust 6.0%.
PRIMARY RISK
Leverage and Cyclicality

An aggressive, debt-funded capital return program could amplify the impact of a cyclical travel downturn, which would pressure both fee revenue and the balance sheet.

Mechanism: A sharp decline in system-wide RevPAR growth would signal a cyclical downturn is underway.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Net debt increased to $13.2 billion from $11.3 billion in the prior year.
  • The net debt to trailing-twelve-month EBITDA ratio is 4.07 times.
  • Shareholder returns are funded by debt, with payouts nearly double free cash flow.
  • Q4 RevPAR growth is guided to slow to 3% to 3.5%.
  • The hospitality industry is cyclical and sensitive to macroeconomic indicators.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
System-wide comparable Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) Growth5.8% year-over-year for Q3 2026 - AcceleratingThe year-over-year growth rate for RevPAR has accelerated through each quarter of 2026. Management attributed the strong Q3 performance to strength in business and group demand, continued momentum following the World Cup, and favorable calendar and holiday shifts.
Net Unit Growth (NUG)6.0% for the twelve months ended September 30, 2026 - StableDespite a slight moderation in the year-over-year growth rate, the absolute pace of openings is accelerating and the record pipeline provides strong visibility. Management expects to end 2026 around the midpoint of its 6% to 7% target range and continue at that pace for the next several years.
Development Pipeline543,100 rooms (as of 9/30/2026)The number of hotel rooms in various stages of development that are expected to join Hilton's system in the future, providing visibility into future net unit growth.
Hilton Honors Members270 million (as of 9/30/2026)The size of the guest loyalty program, which is a key competitive advantage that drives repeat business to Hilton properties and strengthens the value proposition for hotel owners.
Core Investment Debate

Pipeline Power vs. Cyclical Peak

BULL VIEW

Bulls focus on the 40% YoY surge in construction starts and record pipeline, seeing a clear path to multi-year 6-7% unit growth that will overwhelm any near-term RevPAR softness.

CORE TENSION

Can the structural unit growth engine, with its 543,100-room pipeline, power through market fears of a cyclical peak, signaled by the softer Q4 RevPAR guide?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BULLISH

The latest evidence favors the bulls. The full-year 2026 RevPAR guide was raised, and the acceleration in construction starts is a powerful leading indicator of future growth.

BEAR VIEW

Bears see the lowered Q4 RevPAR guide and elevated debt of $13.2 billion as signs of a company running hot into a potential cyclical slowdown, making the stock vulnerable.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
2026
Full-Year Unit Growth
Watch: Company guidance for full-year 2026 net unit growth is expected to be around the midpoint of the 6% to 7% range.
Nov. 5, 2026
Nasdaq Listing Transfer
Watch: Hilton's common stock is expected to begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker HLT.
Q4 2026
Q4 RevPAR Guidance
Watch: Company guidance for Q4 2026 System-wide comparable RevPAR Growth is Lower New.
2/8/2027
Negative Peer Read-Through
Watch: Marriott's commentary on U.S. business transient demand, China recovery, and any signs of consumer weakness.
2/9/2027
Middle East Conflict Drag
Watch: Quantification of the Q4 impact and any change to the full-year regional outlook in the next earnings report.
2/9/2027
Q4 RevPAR Slowdown
Watch: Whether the actual Q4 RevPAR result meets, exceeds, or misses the lowered guidance, and the market's reaction.
2/9/2027
Hilton Earnings Report
Watch: Hilton Worldwide (HLT) is scheduled to report its next earnings.
2/10/2027
Hyatt Earnings Report
Watch: Peer Hyatt Hotels (H) is scheduled to report earnings.
2/16/2027
Host Hotels Earnings
Watch: Peer Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) is scheduled to report earnings.
No set date
Persistent China Weakness
Watch: Commentary on booking trends, consumer sentiment, and government travel policies in China during the next earnings call.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-10-27
Q3 Results Beat Expectations
Details: Hilton reported Q3 2026 results with adjusted diluted EPS of $2.45 and adjusted EBITDA of $1,058 million, exceeding expectations. System-wide comparable RevPAR increased 5.8%.
-2.1%
$351.89 -> $344.65
2026-10-21
New Digital Loyalty Feature
Details: Hilton launched 'Pay with Points,' allowing certain Hilton Honors members to use loyalty points toward their bill through a digital checkout experience.
-0.3%
$359.29 -> $358.07
2026-10-20
Stock Listing Transfer to Nasdaq
Details: Hilton announced plans to transfer the listing of its common stock from the New York Stock Exchange to Nasdaq, effective November 5, 2026.
+4.7%
$346.04 -> $362.25
2026-09-29
Annual Trends Report Released
Details: Hilton released its 2027 Trends Report, indicating travelers are expected to prioritize personal growth, flexibility, and discovery over perfection.
-0.7%
$320.28 -> $318.12
2026-07-28
Q2 Earnings Reported
Details: Hilton reported Q2 2026 results, with diluted EPS, adjusted for special items, of $2.29 and net income of $482 million. The stock had a -3.0% reaction.
-2.8%
$330.70 -> $321.57
2026-05-07
Senior Notes Offering Priced
Details: The company announced the pricing of a $1 billion aggregate principal amount offering of 5.500% Senior Notes due 2031.
-1.5%
$321.21 -> $316.49
2026-04-28
Q1 Results and Raised Outlook
Details: The company reported Q1 2026 results, including diluted EPS, adjusted for special items, of $2.01 and net income of $383 million, and raised its full-year outlook.
-5.4%
$332.14 -> $314.21
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4% - 6%

NORMAL POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: HLT trades at roughly 23% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 11% for the S&P 500 (2.1x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
MAR - Marriott International
Larger Scale Exposure

Marriott operates at a larger scale, with 2.1 times Hilton's revenue and a loyalty program of over 295 million members, offering broader global network exposure.

Core Thesis: An investment in the largest player in the global hotel industry, benefiting from similar asset-light and network-effect dynamics.
H - Hyatt Hotels
Luxury & Lifestyle Focus

Hyatt offers more concentrated exposure to the high-end leisure and luxury segments of the travel market, which can exhibit different demand characteristics.

Core Thesis: An investment in a competitor with strong brand recognition in higher-end segments and competitive RevPAR growth.
How Is The Market Pricing HLT?

Hilton is an asset-light brand licensor whose primary product is a powerful network effect, monetized through long-term franchise and management fees.

Hilton's core business is not owning hotels but selling access to its powerful commercial engine, centered on its brands and the 270 million-member Hilton Honors loyalty program. This network effect creates a flywheel: more hotels attract more loyalty members, which drives more direct bookings and higher RevPAR for owners. This superior performance attracts more hotel owners to join the system, driving high-margin, capital-light fee growth.

What will confirm the thesis

Accelerating net unit growth, continued market share gains (RevPAR index premiums), and strong growth in new construction starts would confirm the thesis.

What will damage the thesis

A slowdown in net unit growth, signs of brand deterioration (falling RevPAR index), or a significant increase in key money required to sign new deals would damage the thesis.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Short-term fluctuations in owned hotel performance or quarterly RevPAR misses due to calendar shifts or one-off geopolitical events.

Repricing Catalyst

Management's outlook for a 'C-shaped economy,' where a recovery in business travel and strength in the middle class drives demand for Hilton's extensive portfolio of mid-tier and select-service brands, potentially leading to sustained RevPAR growth above prior expectations.

What HLT Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q2 2026
Management and franchise
$3.7B TTM (30% of Total)
What It Is

This segment provides hotel management services and licenses its brands (franchising) to third-party hotel owners.

Who Pays & How

Third-party hotel owners pay fees to access Hilton's brand names, reservation systems, marketing programs, and the Hilton Honors loyalty program. This affiliation is intended to drive stronger hotel performance and profitability for the owner.

Fees consist of franchise royalties (typically a percentage of a hotel's monthly gross room revenue), base management fees (a percentage of monthly gross operating revenue), and incentive management fees (a percentage of hotel operating profits).
Competition
Marriott International, Hyatt Hotels, Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, and Choice Hotels International are named as primary global competitors.
Competitors may have greater commercial, financial, and marketing resources or more efficient technology platforms.
Hilton's moat is its portfolio of strong, well-defined brands, a global system-wide guest loyalty program (Hilton Honors), and its large scale, which provides a powerful network effect.
Ownership
$1.2B TTM (10% of Total)
What It Is

This segment sells hotel stays, including rooms, food and beverage, and other services, directly to travelers at the 46 hotels Hilton owns or leases.

Who Pays & How

Leisure, business, and group travelers pay for lodging and other services at hotels consolidated within Hilton's ownership segment.

Revenue is generated from nightly hotel room sales (ADR), food and beverage sales, and other on-property services.
Competition
Competes with other hotels, resorts, and accommodation rental services in their respective geographic markets, including facilities owned by local interests, individuals, and national/international chains.
The moat for these specific properties relies on their location, brand affiliation within the Hilton system, and quality of service.
HLT Evolution: Price Return by Era
· Shift to Asset-Light Model
Over the past several years, Hilton has focused on an asset-light strategy, growing its high-margin, fee-based Management and franchise segment while its capital-intensive Ownership segment has become a much smaller part of the business. From 2023 to 2025, Management and franchise revenue grew from $3.055 billion to $3.575 billion, while Ownership revenue remained flat around $1.244 billion. This has transformed the company's profit profile, with Management and franchise now generating the overwhelming majority of operating income.
· Brand and Pipeline Expansion
The company's aggressive expansion of its brand portfolio to 28 brands, particularly in luxury, lifestyle, and conversion-friendly scales, has fueled a record development pipeline.
Market Appears To Be Aligned With Core Thesis
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Decisively outperforming and improving. Potential evidence of active institutional rotation. Volume and momentum are strongly confirming. The institutional accumulation is evident and momentum is accelerating. Earnings history is strongly validating. The market rewarded the print and institutional follow-through confirms thesis re-rating is underway.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+3
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
10 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Trending Up · - ▾
2 Momentum Accelerating ▾
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Outperformance ▾
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Accumulation ▾
5 Volatility Normal ▾
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Falling ▾
7 Earnings Reaction History Emerging Resilience ▾
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾
Core Cache Last Updated: 11/3/2026