Valvoline (VVV)
Market Price (9/14/2026): $30.56 | Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
Valvoline (VVV)
Market Price (9/14/2026): $30.56Market Cap: $3.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Key risksVVV key risks include [1] the long-term threat of electric vehicle adoption reducing demand for its core lubricant products and [2] material weaknesses in internal financial controls resulting from a new ERP system implementation. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -64%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Key risksVVV key risks include [1] the long-term threat of electric vehicle adoption reducing demand for its core lubricant products and [2] material weaknesses in internal financial controls resulting from a new ERP system implementation. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 9/1/2026
Valvoline (VVV) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Valvoline's stock declined by 5.4% following its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report on August 5, 2026, due to management's warning of significant margin compression in the upcoming fiscal Q4 2026. Despite beating analyst estimates with an adjusted EPS of $0.57 (vs. $0.50 consensus) and revenue of $544.6 million (vs. $543.21 million consensus), investor concern over future profitability outweighed the strong quarterly performance.
2. Increased operating costs negatively impacted profitability in fiscal Q3 2026. Labor costs rose to $127.4 million from $102.3 million year-over-year, an increase of $25.1 million, while material costs grew to $87.3 million from $72.7 million, an increase of $14.6 million. These higher expenses contributed to narrower gross and net profit margins, despite an improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin.
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Valvoline (VVV) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Valvoline's stock declined by 5.4% following its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report on August 5, 2026, due to management's warning of significant margin compression in the upcoming fiscal Q4 2026. Despite beating analyst estimates with an adjusted EPS of $0.57 (vs. $0.50 consensus) and revenue of $544.6 million (vs. $543.21 million consensus), investor concern over future profitability outweighed the strong quarterly performance.
2. Increased operating costs negatively impacted profitability in fiscal Q3 2026. Labor costs rose to $127.4 million from $102.3 million year-over-year, an increase of $25.1 million, while material costs grew to $87.3 million from $72.7 million, an increase of $14.6 million. These higher expenses contributed to narrower gross and net profit margins, despite an improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin.
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Updated on 9/1/2026
Valvoline (VVV) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Valvoline's stock declined by 5.4% following its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report on August 5, 2026, due to management's warning of significant margin compression in the upcoming fiscal Q4 2026. Despite beating analyst estimates with an adjusted EPS of $0.57 (vs. $0.50 consensus) and revenue of $544.6 million (vs. $543.21 million consensus), investor concern over future profitability outweighed the strong quarterly performance.
2. Increased operating costs negatively impacted profitability in fiscal Q3 2026. Labor costs rose to $127.4 million from $102.3 million year-over-year, an increase of $25.1 million, while material costs grew to $87.3 million from $72.7 million, an increase of $14.6 million. These higher expenses contributed to narrower gross and net profit margins, despite an improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin.
3. Weaker year-to-date profitability overshadowed revenue growth. For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, Valvoline's net income fell to $76.5 million, even as sales increased to $1.51 billion. This indicated that higher sales volumes were not translating into proportional profit growth over the longer period, raising investor concerns about the company's ability to offset rising costs with increased revenue.
Show less
Valvoline (VVV) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Valvoline's stock declined by 5.4% following its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings report on August 5, 2026, due to management's warning of significant margin compression in the upcoming fiscal Q4 2026. Despite beating analyst estimates with an adjusted EPS of $0.57 (vs. $0.50 consensus) and revenue of $544.6 million (vs. $543.21 million consensus), investor concern over future profitability outweighed the strong quarterly performance.
2. Increased operating costs negatively impacted profitability in fiscal Q3 2026. Labor costs rose to $127.4 million from $102.3 million year-over-year, an increase of $25.1 million, while material costs grew to $87.3 million from $72.7 million, an increase of $14.6 million. These higher expenses contributed to narrower gross and net profit margins, despite an improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin.
3. Weaker year-to-date profitability overshadowed revenue growth. For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, Valvoline's net income fell to $76.5 million, even as sales increased to $1.51 billion. This indicated that higher sales volumes were not translating into proportional profit growth over the longer period, raising investor concerns about the company's ability to offset rising costs with increased revenue.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.5% change in VVV stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 33.75 | 30.55 | -9.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,858 | 1,964 | 5.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.0% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 46.1 | 38.5 | -16.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 128 | 128 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.5% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VVV | -9.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.0% | 15.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -6.5% | 31.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.2% change in VVV stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -31.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.80 | 30.55 | -19.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,758 | 1,964 | 11.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 55.9 | 38.5 | -31.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 128 | 128 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VVV | -19.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.7% | 33.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.1% | 46.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.2% change in VVV stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -68.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 38.78 | 30.55 | -21.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,692 | 1,964 | 16.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.4% | 5.2% | -68.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.8 | 38.5 | 116.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 128 | 128 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VVV | -21.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.5% | 27.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.9% | 39.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.3% change in VVV stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -95.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.44 | 30.55 | -11.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,389 | 1,964 | 41.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 110.1% | 5.2% | -95.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 3.6 | 38.5 | 957.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 162 | 128 | 26.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.3% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VVV | -11.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.7% | 38.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 35.3% | 44.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VVV Return | 64% | -11% | 15% | -4% | -20% | 4% | 35% |
| Peers Return | 46% | 60% | 11% | 4% | 16% | 65% | 418% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VVV Win Rate | 75% | 33% | 42% | 33% | 33% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 65% | 52% | 57% | 68% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VVV Max Drawdown | -14% | -32% | -26% | -24% | -29% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -26% | -18% | -24% | -21% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: XOM, CVX, PSX, MPC, ORLY. See VVV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/11/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VVV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 80 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 102 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -58.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 140.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 135 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -10.9% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.2% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Valvoline's stock fell -17.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | VVV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 102 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -31.8% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 111 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -58.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 140.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 135 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.2% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 94 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Valvoline's stock fell -17.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Valvoline (VVV)
Valvoline Inc. (VVV) is a global leader in providing engine and automotive maintenance products and services. The company primarily operates through two distinct segments: Retail Services, which offers quick-lube services directly to consumers, and Global Products, which manufactures and supplies a broad range of automotive maintenance products to various channels worldwide.
Through its Retail Services segment, Valvoline operates and franchises a significant network of Valvoline Instant Oil Change and Great Canadian Oil Change quick-lube locations. As of late 2021, this network comprised nearly 1,600 service centers across the United States and Canada, specializing in fast and convenient oil changes and related vehicle maintenance for everyday consumers.
The Global Products segment encompasses Valvoline's manufacturing and distribution of essential automotive maintenance items. This includes a comprehensive portfolio of lubricants for passenger cars and heavy-duty vehicles, antifreeze/coolants, functional and maintenance chemicals like brake and power steering fluids, and various parts such as oil and air filters, batteries, and windshield wiper blades. These products are supplied to a diverse customer base, including car dealerships, general repair shops, third-party quick lube locations, and through distributors and licensees across North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Valvoline (VVV):
- Like Jiffy Lube, but they also make the oil they sell.
- A Firestone or Bridgestone, but for car fluids and maintenance rather than tires.
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- Lubricants: Valvoline manufactures and supplies lubricants for passenger cars, light-duty, and heavy-duty vehicles.
- Antifreeze/Coolants: The company provides antifreeze/coolants, primarily for original equipment manufacturers.
- Automotive Chemicals: Valvoline offers functional and maintenance chemicals such as brake fluids and power steering fluids.
- Specialty Coatings: It manufactures specialty coatings for both automotive and industrial applications.
- Automotive Maintenance Parts: The company supplies various automotive components including oil and air filters, batteries, windshield wiper blades, light bulbs, serpentine belts, and drain plugs.
- Quick-Lube Services: Valvoline operates and franchises Valvoline Instant Oil Change and Great Canadian Oil Change service centers, providing rapid vehicle maintenance services.
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Valvoline (symbol: VVV) serves a diverse customer base, encompassing both direct consumers and various businesses within the automotive industry. Given the significant direct-to-consumer operations through its Valvoline Instant Oil Change and Great Canadian Oil Change service centers, and the difficulty in identifying specific named public companies among its business customers from the provided text, the company primarily serves individuals and other businesses which in turn often serve individuals. Therefore, its major customers can be categorized as follows:
- Vehicle Owners Utilizing Valvoline's Quick-Lube Service Centers: These are individual consumers who directly visit Valvoline Instant Oil Change and Great Canadian Oil Change locations for automotive maintenance services such as oil changes, fluid checks, and other vehicle care.
- Vehicle Owners Receiving Services from Third-Party Automotive Businesses: These individuals are the end-users of Valvoline's products (e.g., lubricants, coolants, fluids, filters) when their vehicles are serviced by car dealers, general repair shops, and other third-party quick-lube locations that purchase Valvoline products.
- Individuals Purchasing Valvoline Brand Products for Personal Use: This category includes consumers who purchase Valvoline's engine and automotive maintenance products (e.g., motor oil, antifreeze/coolants, brake fluids) for their own vehicle maintenance or DIY projects, typically acquired through retail channels supplied by Valvoline's distributors.
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Lori Flees, Chief Executive Officer and Director
Lori Flees was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Valvoline in October 2023, having previously served as President of Retail Services since April 2022. She brings over 35 years of expertise in retail, mergers and acquisitions, and corporate strategy. Prior to joining Valvoline, Ms. Flees spent nearly a decade at Walmart, where she oversaw the health and wellness business across more than 4,800 locations. Her roles at Walmart also included Head of Corporate Strategy and M&A, Senior Vice President of Next Generation Retail, and Principal of Store No8. Before her tenure at Walmart, Ms. Flees was a partner at Bain & Company Inc. for 17 years, consulting for clients in various industries including consumer goods and services, industrial manufacturing, and oil and gas. Her early career included positions at Intel and General Motors. She also serves on the Board of Directors of Harley-Davidson Inc.
Kevin Willis, Chief Financial Officer
Kevin Willis became Valvoline's Chief Financial Officer effective May 19, 2025, taking over from Mary Meixelsperger. In this role, he is responsible for aligning the company's financial strategy with its vision and overseeing all financial operations, including accounting, reporting, treasury, financial planning and analysis, risk management, and investor relations. Mr. Willis joined Valvoline in 2025 after a 37-year career at Ashland Inc., where he served as Chief Financial Officer since 2013. He held various leadership positions at Ashland, including Vice President, Finance – Ashland Specialty Ingredients, and Vice President, Finance/Treasurer – Ashland Corporate. Mr. Willis was instrumental in Ashland's transformation and led the separation of Valvoline Inc.
Linne Fulcher, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Linne Fulcher serves as the Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Valvoline Inc., where he is responsible for ensuring centralized end-to-end support for the company's more than 2,000 service centers across North America. His leadership focuses on delivering tools, processes, and technology that enhance the efficiency and service quality of Valvoline's service center teams. His areas of responsibility include operations experience, efficiency tools, labor management, supply and inventory management, new store onboarding, product support, and all store support functions.
Julie O'Daniel, Chief Legal Officer, Senior Vice President and Corporate Secretary
Julie O'Daniel holds the position of Chief Legal Officer, Senior Vice President, and Corporate Secretary at Valvoline Inc. She leads the company's legal and corporate governance matters, as well as overseeing security, office and building services, and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives. Ms. O'Daniel has provided legal expertise to the organization for over 15 years, initially joining Ashland Inc., Valvoline's former parent company, as Senior Counsel in 2007. She became a part of Valvoline's leadership team and served as the Lead Commercial Counsel for Valvoline starting in 2012.
Hitesh Patel, Senior Vice President, Chief Technology and Cybersecurity Officer
Hitesh Patel is the Senior Vice President, Chief Technology and Cybersecurity Officer for Valvoline Inc. In this role, he is responsible for leading the strategic convergence of technology, cybersecurity, and digital innovation to drive enterprise growth and customer impact. His responsibilities include shaping digital strategy, strengthening cyber defense, and aligning infrastructure with the company's business transformation goals. Before joining Valvoline, Mr. Patel was the Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer for Sleep Number, where he managed all enterprise technology capabilities and initiatives aimed at generating incremental revenue and improving cost efficiencies.
Lori Flees was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Valvoline in October 2023, having previously served as President of Retail Services since April 2022. She brings over 35 years of expertise in retail, mergers and acquisitions, and corporate strategy. Prior to joining Valvoline, Ms. Flees spent nearly a decade at Walmart, where she oversaw the health and wellness business across more than 4,800 locations. Her roles at Walmart also included Head of Corporate Strategy and M&A, Senior Vice President of Next Generation Retail, and Principal of Store No8. Before her tenure at Walmart, Ms. Flees was a partner at Bain & Company Inc. for 17 years, consulting for clients in various industries including consumer goods and services, industrial manufacturing, and oil and gas. Her early career included positions at Intel and General Motors. She also serves on the Board of Directors of Harley-Davidson Inc.
Kevin Willis, Chief Financial Officer
Kevin Willis became Valvoline's Chief Financial Officer effective May 19, 2025, taking over from Mary Meixelsperger. In this role, he is responsible for aligning the company's financial strategy with its vision and overseeing all financial operations, including accounting, reporting, treasury, financial planning and analysis, risk management, and investor relations. Mr. Willis joined Valvoline in 2025 after a 37-year career at Ashland Inc., where he served as Chief Financial Officer since 2013. He held various leadership positions at Ashland, including Vice President, Finance – Ashland Specialty Ingredients, and Vice President, Finance/Treasurer – Ashland Corporate. Mr. Willis was instrumental in Ashland's transformation and led the separation of Valvoline Inc.
Linne Fulcher, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Linne Fulcher serves as the Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Valvoline Inc., where he is responsible for ensuring centralized end-to-end support for the company's more than 2,000 service centers across North America. His leadership focuses on delivering tools, processes, and technology that enhance the efficiency and service quality of Valvoline's service center teams. His areas of responsibility include operations experience, efficiency tools, labor management, supply and inventory management, new store onboarding, product support, and all store support functions.
Julie O'Daniel, Chief Legal Officer, Senior Vice President and Corporate Secretary
Julie O'Daniel holds the position of Chief Legal Officer, Senior Vice President, and Corporate Secretary at Valvoline Inc. She leads the company's legal and corporate governance matters, as well as overseeing security, office and building services, and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives. Ms. O'Daniel has provided legal expertise to the organization for over 15 years, initially joining Ashland Inc., Valvoline's former parent company, as Senior Counsel in 2007. She became a part of Valvoline's leadership team and served as the Lead Commercial Counsel for Valvoline starting in 2012.
Hitesh Patel, Senior Vice President, Chief Technology and Cybersecurity Officer
Hitesh Patel is the Senior Vice President, Chief Technology and Cybersecurity Officer for Valvoline Inc. In this role, he is responsible for leading the strategic convergence of technology, cybersecurity, and digital innovation to drive enterprise growth and customer impact. His responsibilities include shaping digital strategy, strengthening cyber defense, and aligning infrastructure with the company's business transformation goals. Before joining Valvoline, Mr. Patel was the Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer for Sleep Number, where he managed all enterprise technology capabilities and initiatives aimed at generating incremental revenue and improving cost efficiencies.
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The key risks to Valvoline's business are primarily driven by shifts in the automotive industry, intense market competition, and financial considerations related to its growth strategy.
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Shift to Electric Vehicles (EVs): The most significant long-term threat to Valvoline's core quick-lube business is the accelerated adoption of electric vehicles. EVs require far less traditional lubricant service, such as oil changes, which forms the foundation of Valvoline's revenue. While Valvoline is actively developing EV-specific fluids and services, a rapid shift to an electrified vehicle fleet could substantially diminish the market for its conventional products and services.
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Intense Competition and Market Fragmentation: Valvoline operates within a highly competitive and fragmented quick-lube market. This environment includes major players like Jiffy Lube and numerous independent repair centers, which constantly exert pressure on service prices and, consequently, on Valvoline's margins. Maintaining market share and profitability in such a landscape requires continuous operational efficiency and strategic pricing.
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Debt and Acquisition Risk: Valvoline's strategy of growth, including recent significant, debt-funded acquisitions like Breeze Autocare, introduces financial risks. These acquisitions can increase the company's leverage ratio, raising "near-term balance sheet questions" and substantial financial obligations. There is also the inherent complexity and risk associated with successfully integrating many new locations into its existing operational framework.
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The widespread adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) represents a clear emerging threat to Valvoline's core business model. EVs do not require engine oil, oil filters, spark plugs, or traditional engine coolant flushes, significantly reducing the demand for many of Valvoline's primary product offerings (lubricants, antifreeze/coolants for ICE, filters, etc.). Furthermore, the operational model of Valvoline's quick-lube service centers (Valvoline Instant Oil Change, Great Canadian Oil Change) is predicated on frequent maintenance needs of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, particularly oil changes. As the vehicle fleet transitions to EVs, the fundamental service offerings that drive these centers will diminish substantially, challenging the viability and revenue streams of this segment.
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Valvoline Inc. operates in significant addressable markets for its core products and services, primarily automotive lubricants and quick-lube services.
Retail Services (Quick-Lube)
- U.S. Oil Change Service Market: This market was estimated at approximately $8.11 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $14.8 billion by 2034. Other estimates indicate the U.S. oil change service market size at $12.9 billion in 2024 and $13.2 billion in 2025. Sales from oil change and lubrication shops in the U.S. reached $8 billion in 2023 and are forecast to increase to $10.4 billion by 2027.
- Canada Quick Lube Service Market: The total Canadian auto service market is valued at $18.8 billion. Quick lube locations account for approximately 11% of all auto service and repair visits in Canada, indicating an addressable market of roughly $2.07 billion for quick lube services in Canada.
Global Products (Automotive Lubricants)
- Global Automotive Lubricants Market: The global automotive lubricants market size was valued at $77.8 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $116.1 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.1%. Other estimates for the global market size include $73.07 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach $87.40 billion by 2035.
- North America Automotive Lubricants Market: This market was valued at $43.66 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $50.29 billion by 2030. The U.S. portion of the lubricants market is projected to reach $12.81 billion by 2032.
- Canada Automotive Lubricants Market: This market generated a revenue of $1,018.4 million in 2022 and is expected to reach $1,295.5 million by 2030.
Broader Automotive Aftermarket
Valvoline's wider range of products, including antifreeze/coolants, filters, and chemicals, falls under the broader automotive aftermarket.
- U.S. Automotive Aftermarket: The entire U.S. automotive aftermarket, which includes parts, accessories, and services for light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles, is projected at nearly $535 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach approximately $574 billion in 2026. Another estimate places the U.S. automotive aftermarket size at $260 billion in 2024, projected to reach $348 billion in 2032.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Valvoline (VVV)
- Accelerated Network Growth (New Store Additions and Acquisitions): Valvoline is aggressively expanding its retail service center footprint through both organic new store builds and strategic acquisitions. The company aims to grow its network from approximately 2,180 locations in fiscal year 2025 to a target of 3,500+ stores across the U.S. and Canada. Recent examples include the planned acquisition and integration of Breeze Autocare, which is expected to add 162 stores and contribute significantly to future revenue. This expansion is a primary engine for revenue growth.
- System-Wide Same-Store Sales (SSS) Growth: Valvoline has a strong track record of consistent system-wide same-store sales growth, achieving its 19th consecutive year of SSS growth in fiscal 2025, with a 6.1% increase. The company targets 4-6% same-store sales growth from 2026 to 2028. This growth is driven by a combination of increased customer traffic and higher average ticket sizes.
- Expansion of Premium and Non-Oil Change Service Offerings (Service Mix/Premiumization): Valvoline is focused on enhancing its service mix by expanding non-oil change offerings. This strategy aims to increase the average ticket size per customer visit through the premiumization of services, such as tire rotations and other essential maintenance, beyond basic oil changes. This initiative is designed to meet the needs of an evolving customer base and car parc.
- Effective Pricing Actions: Management has indicated that Valvoline maintains pricing power, with pricing actions contributing to revenue growth. These strategic price adjustments help drive increases in average ticket size without significantly deterring customer traffic, further bolstering revenue.
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Share Repurchases
- Valvoline's board authorized a $1.6 billion share repurchase program on November 10, 2022.
- In fiscal year 2023, the company executed approximately $1.525 billion in share buybacks, including a $1.0 billion "Dutch auction" tender offer.
- On July 30, 2024, the board approved a new $400 million share repurchase authorization.
Inbound Investments
- Valvoline completed the sale of its Global Products business to Aramco for $2.65 billion in cash on March 1, 2023.
- The net cash proceeds from the sale, estimated at approximately $2.25 billion (or $2.38 billion), were intended to accelerate capital returns to shareholders, reduce debt, and invest in the Retail Services business.
Outbound Investments
- On December 1, 2025, Valvoline acquired OC IntermediateCo, which includes the Breeze Autocare business and Oil Changers quick lube stores, for a net purchase price of $593 million.
- This acquisition resulted in a net addition of 162 stores after divesting 45 locations as required by the Federal Trade Commission.
- The acquisition was financed by a newly issued $740 million Term Loan B.
Capital Expenditures
- Valvoline's capital expenditures were $144 million in fiscal year 2021, $132 million in fiscal year 2022, and $180.5 million in fiscal year 2023.
- Projected capital expenditures are $224.4 million for fiscal year 2024 and $259.2 million for fiscal year 2025.
- For fiscal year 2026, the company expects capital expenditures to be between $250 million and $280 million, primarily focused on accelerating network growth and innovating within its Retail Services business.
Peer Outperformance in Automotive Retail
VVV has trailed 59% of its 17 Automotive Retail peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is GPI. Automotive Retail ranks 4th of 23 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return.
Share of Automotive Retail constituents that VVV has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
37%
of 19 industry peers · -24.5% return
3Y
44%
of 18 industry peers · -5.4% return
5Y
41%
of 17 industry peers · -2.7% return
Automotive Retail peers with revenue growth within 4pp of VVV's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV | Valvoline | 12.3% | 38.5x | -24.5% | -5.4% | -2.7% | — |
| GPI | Group 1 Automotive | 9.7% | 11.3x | -39.9% | 2.8% | 75.1% | +78pp |
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Automotive Retail is VVV's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -21.1% | 83.9% | 72.4% | LINC 306% · PRDO 236% · CVSA 229% |
| Homebuilding | 18 | -14.7% | 18.5% | 42.6% | GRBK 208% · PHM 163% · TOL 140% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | 11.7% | 34.7% | 16.4% | SIG 39% · FIVE 32% · ASO 27% |
| Automotive Retail ← | 18 | -11.4% | 2.8% | 10.7% | MUSA 268% · PAG 171% · ORLY 118% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -26.1% | -9.5% | 5.2% | HVT 16% · LOW 6% · HD 5% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 22 | 12.9% | 43.5% | 4.0% | RCL 225% · MAR 145% · HLT 136% |
| Distributors | 4 | -12.0% | -24.5% | -8.5% | ARMK 165% · GPC 29% · LKQ -46% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -16.0% | 26.2% | -11.9% | HRB 117% · FTDR 75% · SCI 44% |
| Home Furnishings | 4 | -6.7% | 18.5% | -14.0% | SGI 48% · LZB 4% · MHK -32% |
| Restaurants | 34 | -12.2% | -17.2% | -14.7% | EAT 337% · CAKE 157% · BH 134% |
| Footwear | 9 | 42.7% | 43.7% | -24.7% | WEYS 162% · SHOO 24% · DECK 12% |
| Leisure Products | 13 | -22.4% | -19.6% | -34.1% | GOLF 82% · HAS 15% · BC -19% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -8.7% | -23.6% | -36.1% | MCRI 117% · RSI 67% · RRR 58% |
| Leisure Facilities | 11 | -4.0% | -12.8% | -37.1% | OSW 132% · JAKK 106% · ESCA 19% |
| Apparel Retail | 25 | -9.5% | 10.4% | -38.1% | ANF 314% · URBN 147% · ROST 117% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 38 | -10.7% | -11.0% | -38.4% | MOD 1601% · GTX 301% · STRT 92% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 27 | -7.6% | 8.6% | -40.3% | TPR 236% · RL 236% · ELA 224% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | -1.8% | 13.7% | -43.8% | FLXS 174% · KEQU 165% · HBB 124% |
| Broadline Retail | 15 | -12.2% | 12.4% | -54.3% | DDS 317% · EBAY 65% · AMZN 49% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | -15.2% | 15.4% | -57.5% | BBY 3% · GME -58% · UPBD -59% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -78.1% | -50.5% | -71.5% | GM 76% · F 48% · TSLA 47% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 18 | -31.0% | -49.5% | -77.3% | TLF 109% · BBW 93% · WINA 79% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -13.5% | -8.8% | -77.8% | AXIL 2979% · GRMN 85% · MSN -58% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Valvoline Earnings Notes | 12/27/2025 | |
| How Low Can Valvoline Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Valvoline vs Newmont: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| Valvoline vs Churchill Downs: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| How Does Valvoline Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| VVV Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| Valvoline Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -14.2% in 2025 and 13.0% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | 03/07/2025 | |
| Valvoline (VVV) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 02/17/2025 | |
| Valvoline (VVV) Net Income Comparison | 02/16/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Is Valvoline a Better Buy Than AutoZone? | 01/07/2026 | |
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 12/03/2025 | |
| AutoZone vs Valvoline: Which Stock Could Rally? | 11/04/2025 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 190.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 109.2 |
| Rev LTM | 152,872 |
| Op Inc LTM | 9,257 |
| FCF LTM | 9,646 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 6,295 |
| CFO LTM | 13,026 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 8,911 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 47.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 11.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 37.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 109.2 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 15.6 |
| P/EBIT | 13.0 |
| P/E | 20.8 |
| P/CFO | 10.6 |
| Total Yield | 7.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 47.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 49.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 29.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -18.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single segment | 1,710 | 1,619 | 1,444 | ||
| Franchise fees and other | 74 | 67 | |||
| Non-oil changes and related fees | 248 | 208 | |||
| Oil changes and related fees | 913 | 762 | |||
| Total | 1,710 | 1,619 | 1,444 | 1,236 | 1,037 |
| $ Mil | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Services | 382 | 247 | |||
| Global Products | 327 | 309 | |||
| Net legacy and separation-related income (expenses) | 24 | 30 | |||
| Business interruption recovery (expenses) | 3 | 2 | |||
| LIFO (charge) credit | -41 | 15 | |||
| Corporate | -75 | -61 | |||
| Depreciation and amortization | -92 | -66 | |||
| Acquisition and divestiture-related (costs) income | -2 | ||||
| Compensated absences benefits change | 11 | ||||
| Core North America | 152 | 172 | 199 | ||
| International | 85 | 84 | 76 | ||
| Quick Lubes | 178 | 153 | 130 | ||
| Unallocated and other | -17 | -14 | 127 | ||
| Total | 528 | 485 | 398 | 395 | 532 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $30.55 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/23/2016 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -24.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $35.89 | $34.44 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -14.9% | -11.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 29.3% | 31.6% |
| Downside Capture | 169.25 | 93.79 |
| Upside Capture | 41.71 | 43.20 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 13.1% | 26.9% |
VVV Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.14 | 0.46 | 0.29 | 0.77 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| Up Beta | 0.73 | -0.92 | -0.20 | 0.85 | 1.05 | 0.89 |
| Down Beta | -3.58 | -0.58 | -0.65 | 0.17 | 0.31 | 0.54 |
| Up Capture | 20% | 46% | 68% | 58% | 38% | 34% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 19 | 32 | 57 | 112 | 354 |
| Down Capture | 482% | 220% | 101% | 122% | 92% | 95% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 23 | 32 | 70 | 138 | 389 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VVV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV | -22.5% | 31.6% | -0.78 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -2.4% | 19.5% | -0.25 | 39.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.3% | 12.8% | 1.03 | 27.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.0% | 29.2% | 0.59 | 9.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.3% | 20.6% | 1.80 | -32.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.6% | 13.6% | 0.29 | 41.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -32.4% | 43.8% | -0.77 | 0.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VVV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV | 0.2% | 29.8% | 0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.1% | 24.1% | 0.17 | 46.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 46.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.7% | 18.8% | 0.81 | 7.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.4% | 19.5% | 0.46 | 1.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.7% | 18.9% | -0.07 | 46.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.4% | 52.6% | 0.36 | 17.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VVV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV | 3.9% | 32.8% | 0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.0% | 22.2% | 0.49 | 47.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 49.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.3% | 0.62 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 18.1% | 0.39 | 13.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 49.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.2% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 11.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | -5.9% | -15.9% | -19.0% |
| 5/7/2026 | 5.0% | -6.1% | 4.6% |
| 2/4/2026 | 6.9% | 14.1% | 8.3% |
| 11/19/2025 | -2.5% | 0.6% | -6.0% |
| 8/6/2025 | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | -1.9% | 1.0% | 6.0% |
| 2/6/2025 | 7.4% | 7.6% | -4.6% |
| 11/19/2024 | -8.7% | -6.7% | -13.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.2% | 7.2% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -4.7% | -5.9% |
| Max Positive | 12.2% | 16.1% | 23.4% |
| Max Negative | -10.1% | -15.9% | -19.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | -5.9% | -15.9% | -19.0% |
| 5/7/2026 | 5.0% | -6.1% | 4.6% |
| 2/4/2026 | 6.9% | 14.1% | 8.3% |
| 11/19/2025 | -2.5% | 0.6% | -6.0% |
| 8/6/2025 | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | -1.9% | 1.0% | 6.0% |
| 2/6/2025 | 7.4% | 7.6% | -4.6% |
| 11/19/2024 | -8.7% | -6.7% | -13.1% |
| 8/7/2024 | -10.1% | -7.7% | -6.9% |
| 5/8/2024 | -4.6% | -5.3% | -5.9% |
| 2/6/2024 | 2.9% | 9.2% | 20.0% |
| 11/9/2023 | 5.4% | 16.1% | 16.8% |
| 8/9/2023 | -3.0% | -4.1% | -6.4% |
| 5/10/2023 | 12.2% | 11.7% | 12.3% |
| 2/7/2023 | -3.4% | -3.1% | -1.8% |
| 11/15/2022 | 4.3% | 1.8% | -0.9% |
| 8/3/2022 | -6.2% | -3.6% | -4.4% |
| 5/9/2022 | -6.1% | 1.9% | 17.4% |
| 2/8/2022 | 3.4% | 0.3% | -9.6% |
| 11/3/2021 | -2.6% | -1.5% | -2.7% |
| 8/4/2021 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| 4/28/2021 | 7.3% | 10.1% | 13.4% |
| 2/3/2021 | -4.0% | -2.0% | 2.5% |
| 10/28/2020 | 6.9% | 13.0% | 23.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.2% | 7.2% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -4.7% | -5.9% |
| Max Positive | 12.2% | 16.1% | 23.4% |
| Max Negative | -10.1% | -15.9% | -19.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/20/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/23/2022 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/20/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/19/2021 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/24/2020 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/22/2019 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/6/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 System-wide SSS growth | Reported | 7.5% | 7.75% | 8.0% | 34.8% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 5.75% for 2026 |
| 2026 Net revenues | Reported | 2.05 Bil | 2.08 Bil | 2.10 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 550.00 Mil | 555.00 Mil | 560.00 Mil | 0.9% | Raised | Guidance: 550.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 1.7 | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 1.7 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 240.00 Mil | 250.00 Mil | 260.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 11/19/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 System-wide SSS growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | -1.1% | Lower New | Actual: 6.1% for 2025 | |
| 2026 System-wide store additions | Reported | 330 | 345 | 360 | ||||
| 2026 Net revenues | Reported | 2.00 Bil | 2.05 Bil | 2.10 Bil | 20.2% | Higher New | Actual: 1.71 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 525.00 Mil | 537.50 Mil | 550.00 Mil | 15.6% | Higher New | Actual: 465.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 1.6 | 1.65 | 1.7 | 2.2% | Higher New | Actual: 1.61 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 250.00 Mil | 265.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O'Daniel, Julie Marie | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 33.81 | 3,700 | 125,115 | 482,844 | Form |
| 2 | Denny, Jordan M | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 8142026 | 33.20 | 1,506 | 49,999 | 136,817 | Form |
| 3 | Caldwell, Jonathan L | Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 6262026 | 40.00 | 2,851 | 114,040 | 836,720 | Form |
| 4 | Slater, Jennifer Lynn | Direct | Buy | 5182026 | 32.53 | 1,000 | 32,530 | 32,530 | Form | |
| 5 | Willis, J Kevin | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 5152026 | 31.80 | 10,000 | 318,000 | 1,040,655 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O'Daniel, Julie Marie | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 33.81 | 3,700 | 125,115 | 482,844 | Form |
| 2 | Denny, Jordan M | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Buy | 8142026 | 33.20 | 1,506 | 49,999 | 136,817 | Form |
| 3 | Caldwell, Jonathan L | Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 6262026 | 40.00 | 2,851 | 114,040 | 836,720 | Form |
| 4 | Slater, Jennifer Lynn | Direct | Buy | 5182026 | 32.53 | 1,000 | 32,530 | 32,530 | Form | |
| 5 | Willis, J Kevin | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 5152026 | 31.80 | 10,000 | 318,000 | 1,040,655 | Form |
| 6 | Freeland, Richard Joseph | Direct | Buy | 5152026 | 32.37 | 3,100 | 100,347 | 521,545 | Form | |
| 7 | Caldwell, Jonathan L | Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 37.54 | 2,679 | 100,570 | 892,288 | Form |
| 8 | Caldwell, Jonathan L | Chief People Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 38.00 | 983 | 37,354 | 1,005,024 | Form |
| 9 | O'Daniel, Julie Marie | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 38.55 | 4,312 | 166,228 | 693,090 | Form |
| 10 | O'Daniel, Julie Marie | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 11282025 | 31.88 | 3,200 | 102,016 | 549,962 | Form |
| 11 | Flees, Lori Ann | President & CEO | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 30.82 | 4,500 | 138,690 | 2,134,809 | Form |
| 12 | Willis, J Kevin | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 11242025 | 31.41 | 10,000 | 314,100 | 713,792 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 14, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Automotive Retail Resources |
| Automotive News |
| Ward's Auto |
| CBT News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 9/13/2026