Tearsheet

Valvoline (VVV)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $30.685 | Market Cap: $3.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail

Valvoline (VVV)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $30.685
Market Cap: $3.9 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78%
 
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
  
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more.
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -62%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

VVV Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

During the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, Valvoline's (VVV) stock experienced a decline of 21.2% due to several key factors:

1. Valvoline reported an earnings and revenue miss for its fiscal fourth quarter of 2025. The company's quarterly earnings of $0.45 per share fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.48 per share, representing a -6.25% earnings surprise. Additionally, revenues of $453.8 million missed the consensus estimate of $455.7 million by 0.28%.

2. The company experienced a sharp decline in its Q4 2025 Earnings Per Share (EPS). Valvoline's EPS plummeted by 71.8% to $0.20 in Q4 2025 from $0.71 in Q4 2024, with net income also decreasing by 72.9% year-over-year to $25 million.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VVV Return11%64%-11%15%-4%-17%49%
Peers Return0%9%4%10%-12%8%18%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VVV Win Rate58%75%33%42%33%40% 
Peers Win Rate47%40%38%37%33%32% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VVV Max Drawdown-57%-2%-32%-10%-8%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-46%-6%-19%-9%-18%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PPG, DOW, EMN, DK, BGSI. See VVV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventVVVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven210 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven153.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven246 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-32.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven47.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven669 days120 days

Compare to PPG, DOW, EMN, DK, BGSI


In The Past

Valvoline's stock fell -33.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -33.0% loss requires a 49.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Valvoline (VVV)

Better Bets than Valvoline (VVV)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VVV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
VVV_9302022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302022VVVValvolineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
38.4%27.7%-1.1%
VVV_3312020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy03312020VVVValvolineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
47.9%103.6%-9.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
9.2%9.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.4%2.4%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.1%-4.1%-4.1%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.1%5.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-1.6%
VVV_9302022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302022VVVValvolineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
38.4%27.7%-1.1%
VVV_3312020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy03312020VVVValvolineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
47.9%103.6%-9.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Valvoline

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VVVPPGDOWEMNDKBGSIMedian
NameValvolinePPG Indu.Dow Eastman .Delek US Boyd Ser. 
Mkt Price30.56101.3423.7661.5738.13168.9149.85
Mkt Cap3.922.916.97.02.3-7.0
Rev LTM1,69215,69040,9139,02410,6673,0639,846
Op Inc LTM4412,1724721,190-59102456
FCF LTM45715-1,120395-741252149
FCF 3Y Avg-381,213903511-215264388
CFO LTM2771,4001,5621,008-130322665
CFO 3Y Avg1641,8243,6451,195230327761

Growth & Margins

VVVPPGDOWEMNDKBGSIMedian
NameValvolinePPG Indu.Dow Eastman .Delek US Boyd Ser. 
Rev Chg LTM7.5%8.5%-5.3%-3.4%-20.5%0.7%-1.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg262.7%-3.5%-11.3%-5.9%-17.2%12.5%-4.7%
Rev Chg Q4.2%1.2%-8.3%-10.6%-5.1%0.2%-2.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.1%0.3%-2.2%-2.8%-1.4%0.0%-0.7%
Op Mgn LTM26.0%13.8%1.2%13.2%-0.6%3.3%8.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg21.8%13.8%3.5%12.6%-0.2%4.5%8.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%-0.0%-0.5%-1.2%3.9%-0.0%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM16.3%8.9%3.8%11.2%-1.2%10.5%9.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.2%11.9%8.3%12.9%1.3%11.1%10.6%
FCF/Rev LTM2.7%4.6%-2.7%4.4%-6.9%8.2%3.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2.9%7.9%1.9%5.5%-2.2%9.0%3.7%

Valuation

VVVPPGDOWEMNDKBGSIMedian
NameValvolinePPG Indu.Dow Eastman .Delek US Boyd Ser. 
Mkt Cap3.922.916.97.02.3-7.0
P/S2.91.50.40.80.2-0.8
P/EBIT10.912.0138.36.7-10.6-10.9
P/E17.423.8-14.410.3-3.8-10.3
P/CFO17.516.910.47.2-14.9-10.4
Total Yield5.8%6.8%3.7%12.3%-23.3%-5.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.6%10.6%2.6%3.2%-2.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.6%4.2%1.2%5.3%-12.2%-1.2%
D/E0.30.31.20.71.7-0.7
Net D/E0.30.30.90.61.4-0.6

Returns

VVVPPGDOWEMNDKBGSIMedian
NameValvolinePPG Indu.Dow Eastman .Delek US Boyd Ser. 
1M Rtn-3.3%7.5%3.8%6.4%-2.0%-3.8%
3M Rtn-20.3%-6.5%0.8%-7.7%20.2%--6.5%
6M Rtn-16.6%-8.2%-13.5%-22.1%108.6%--13.5%
12M Rtn-21.9%-17.6%-41.8%-37.7%110.2%--21.9%
3Y Rtn-7.3%-21.2%-44.9%-21.2%50.7%--21.2%
1M Excs Rtn-3.3%7.5%3.8%6.4%-1.9%-3.8%
3M Excs Rtn-26.9%-12.2%-4.5%-14.5%14.8%--12.2%
6M Excs Rtn-31.3%-22.9%-28.2%-36.8%93.9%--28.2%
12M Excs Rtn-36.6%-29.9%-55.8%-52.3%97.1%--36.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-77.7%-89.8%-115.4%-91.2%-38.3%--89.8%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,189,458
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-4.7%
Average Daily Volume1,758,072
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.80
Basic Shares Quantity127,600,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241122202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023206202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231120202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022207202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221123202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021209202210-Q 12/31/2021
93020211119202110-K 9/30/2021