Valvoline (VVV)
Market Price (4/22/2026): $33.8 | Market Cap: $4.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail
Valvoline (VVV)
Market Price (4/22/2026): $33.8Market Cap: $4.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.7 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -59%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% Key risksVVV key risks include [1] the long-term threat of electric vehicle adoption reducing demand for its core lubricant products and [2] material weaknesses in internal financial controls resulting from a new ERP system implementation. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -59%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -73% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 10% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 50x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
| Key risksVVV key risks include [1] the long-term threat of electric vehicle adoption reducing demand for its core lubricant products and [2] material weaknesses in internal financial controls resulting from a new ERP system implementation. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Valvoline (VVV) stock has gained about 15% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Earnings Outperformance.
Valvoline reported robust financial results for its fiscal first quarter 2026, announced on February 4, 2026, which significantly exceeded analyst expectations and fueled investor confidence. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.37, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.34 by $0.03, representing a 9.37% positive surprise. Additionally, net sales increased by 11.5% year-over-year to $461.8 million, and adjusted EBITDA saw significant growth. System-wide same-store sales surged by 13.8%, driven by net price increases and premiumization strategies. This strong performance demonstrated solid operational efficiency and directly contributed to the stock's positive movement.
2. Successful Integration and Expansion of Retail Service Network.
Valvoline continued its strategic expansion and successful integration of new acquisitions, which was highlighted in its Q1 2026 report. The company successfully integrated 162 new stores from the Breeze transaction, contributing to its network growth and scaling towards a target of 3,500 stores. This expansion, which is a significant component of Valvoline's aggressive growth strategy, demonstrated the company's commitment to enhancing its market presence and driving future revenue.
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1. Strong Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Earnings Outperformance.
Valvoline reported robust financial results for its fiscal first quarter 2026, announced on February 4, 2026, which significantly exceeded analyst expectations and fueled investor confidence. The company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reached $0.37, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.34 by $0.03, representing a 9.37% positive surprise. Additionally, net sales increased by 11.5% year-over-year to $461.8 million, and adjusted EBITDA saw significant growth. System-wide same-store sales surged by 13.8%, driven by net price increases and premiumization strategies. This strong performance demonstrated solid operational efficiency and directly contributed to the stock's positive movement.
2. Successful Integration and Expansion of Retail Service Network.
Valvoline continued its strategic expansion and successful integration of new acquisitions, which was highlighted in its Q1 2026 report. The company successfully integrated 162 new stores from the Breeze transaction, contributing to its network growth and scaling towards a target of 3,500 stores. This expansion, which is a significant component of Valvoline's aggressive growth strategy, demonstrated the company's commitment to enhancing its market presence and driving future revenue.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.3% change in VVV stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 184.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.06 | 33.79 | 16.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,710 | 1,758 | 2.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.3% | 4.9% | -60.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.6 | 50.0 | 184.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 128 | 128 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VVV | 16.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 34.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.4% | 46.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.9% change in VVV stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -70.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 35.91 | 33.79 | -5.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,692 | 1,758 | 3.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.4% | 4.9% | -70.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.5 | 50.0 | 203.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 128 | 128 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VVV | -5.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 28.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.5% | 40.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.9% change in VVV stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -70.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.81 | 33.79 | -2.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,660 | 1,758 | 5.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.3% | 4.9% | -70.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.5 | 50.0 | 202.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 129 | 128 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VVV | -2.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 38.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 21.2% | 48.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.3% change in VVV stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -85.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 34.94 | 33.79 | -3.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,282 | 1,758 | 37.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 32.7% | 4.9% | -85.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.6 | 50.0 | 242.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 175 | 128 | 37.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| VVV | -3.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 39.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 62.7% | 42.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VVV Return | 64% | -11% | 15% | -4% | -20% | 19% | 55% |
| Peers Return | 46% | 60% | 11% | 4% | 16% | 20% | 277% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 89% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VVV Win Rate | 75% | 33% | 42% | 33% | 33% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 65% | 52% | 57% | 68% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VVV Max Drawdown | -2% | -32% | -10% | -8% | -20% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -4% | -11% | -7% | -9% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: XOM, CVX, PSX, MPC, ORLY. See VVV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/21/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VVV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 210 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 669 days | 120 days |
Compare to XOM, CVX, PSX, MPC, ORLY
In The Past
Valvoline's stock fell -33.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -33.0% loss requires a 49.3% gain to breakeven.
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About Valvoline (VVV)
Valvoline Inc. manufactures, markets, and supplies, engine and automotive maintenance products and services. It operates through two segments, Retail Services and Global Products. The company offers lubricants for passenger car, light duty, and heavy duty; antifreeze/coolants for original equipment manufacturers; functional and maintenance chemicals, such as brake fluids and power steering fluids, as well as specialty coatings for automotive and industrial applications; and oil and air filters for light-duty vehicles. It also provides batteries, windshield wiper blades, light bulbs, serpentine belts, and drain plugs. In addition, the company operates Valvoline instant oil change service centers. As of September 30, 2021, it operated and franchised approximately 1,594 quick-lube locations under the Valvoline Instant Oil Change brand in the United States and the Great Canadian Oil Change brand in Canada. The company also serves car dealers, general repair shops, and third-party quick lube locations, as well as through distributors and licensees. It has operations in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Valvoline (VVV):
- Like Jiffy Lube, but they also make the oil they sell.
- A Firestone or Bridgestone, but for car fluids and maintenance rather than tires.
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```html- Lubricants: Valvoline manufactures and supplies lubricants for passenger cars, light-duty, and heavy-duty vehicles.
- Antifreeze/Coolants: The company provides antifreeze/coolants, primarily for original equipment manufacturers.
- Automotive Chemicals: Valvoline offers functional and maintenance chemicals such as brake fluids and power steering fluids.
- Specialty Coatings: It manufactures specialty coatings for both automotive and industrial applications.
- Automotive Maintenance Parts: The company supplies various automotive components including oil and air filters, batteries, windshield wiper blades, light bulbs, serpentine belts, and drain plugs.
- Quick-Lube Services: Valvoline operates and franchises Valvoline Instant Oil Change and Great Canadian Oil Change service centers, providing rapid vehicle maintenance services.
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```htmlValvoline (symbol: VVV) serves a diverse customer base, encompassing both direct consumers and various businesses within the automotive industry. Given the significant direct-to-consumer operations through its Valvoline Instant Oil Change and Great Canadian Oil Change service centers, and the difficulty in identifying specific named public companies among its business customers from the provided text, the company primarily serves individuals and other businesses which in turn often serve individuals. Therefore, its major customers can be categorized as follows:
- Vehicle Owners Utilizing Valvoline's Quick-Lube Service Centers: These are individual consumers who directly visit Valvoline Instant Oil Change and Great Canadian Oil Change locations for automotive maintenance services such as oil changes, fluid checks, and other vehicle care.
- Vehicle Owners Receiving Services from Third-Party Automotive Businesses: These individuals are the end-users of Valvoline's products (e.g., lubricants, coolants, fluids, filters) when their vehicles are serviced by car dealers, general repair shops, and other third-party quick-lube locations that purchase Valvoline products.
- Individuals Purchasing Valvoline Brand Products for Personal Use: This category includes consumers who purchase Valvoline's engine and automotive maintenance products (e.g., motor oil, antifreeze/coolants, brake fluids) for their own vehicle maintenance or DIY projects, typically acquired through retail channels supplied by Valvoline's distributors.
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Lori Flees, Chief Executive Officer and DirectorLori Flees was appointed Chief Executive Officer of Valvoline in October 2023, having previously served as President of Retail Services since April 2022. She brings over 35 years of expertise in retail, mergers and acquisitions, and corporate strategy. Prior to joining Valvoline, Ms. Flees spent nearly a decade at Walmart, where she oversaw the health and wellness business across more than 4,800 locations. Her roles at Walmart also included Head of Corporate Strategy and M&A, Senior Vice President of Next Generation Retail, and Principal of Store No8. Before her tenure at Walmart, Ms. Flees was a partner at Bain & Company Inc. for 17 years, consulting for clients in various industries including consumer goods and services, industrial manufacturing, and oil and gas. Her early career included positions at Intel and General Motors. She also serves on the Board of Directors of Harley-Davidson Inc.
Kevin Willis, Chief Financial Officer
Kevin Willis became Valvoline's Chief Financial Officer effective May 19, 2025, taking over from Mary Meixelsperger. In this role, he is responsible for aligning the company's financial strategy with its vision and overseeing all financial operations, including accounting, reporting, treasury, financial planning and analysis, risk management, and investor relations. Mr. Willis joined Valvoline in 2025 after a 37-year career at Ashland Inc., where he served as Chief Financial Officer since 2013. He held various leadership positions at Ashland, including Vice President, Finance – Ashland Specialty Ingredients, and Vice President, Finance/Treasurer – Ashland Corporate. Mr. Willis was instrumental in Ashland's transformation and led the separation of Valvoline Inc.
Linne Fulcher, Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer
Linne Fulcher serves as the Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Valvoline Inc., where he is responsible for ensuring centralized end-to-end support for the company's more than 2,000 service centers across North America. His leadership focuses on delivering tools, processes, and technology that enhance the efficiency and service quality of Valvoline's service center teams. His areas of responsibility include operations experience, efficiency tools, labor management, supply and inventory management, new store onboarding, product support, and all store support functions.
Julie O'Daniel, Chief Legal Officer, Senior Vice President and Corporate Secretary
Julie O'Daniel holds the position of Chief Legal Officer, Senior Vice President, and Corporate Secretary at Valvoline Inc. She leads the company's legal and corporate governance matters, as well as overseeing security, office and building services, and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives. Ms. O'Daniel has provided legal expertise to the organization for over 15 years, initially joining Ashland Inc., Valvoline's former parent company, as Senior Counsel in 2007. She became a part of Valvoline's leadership team and served as the Lead Commercial Counsel for Valvoline starting in 2012.
Hitesh Patel, Senior Vice President, Chief Technology and Cybersecurity Officer
Hitesh Patel is the Senior Vice President, Chief Technology and Cybersecurity Officer for Valvoline Inc. In this role, he is responsible for leading the strategic convergence of technology, cybersecurity, and digital innovation to drive enterprise growth and customer impact. His responsibilities include shaping digital strategy, strengthening cyber defense, and aligning infrastructure with the company's business transformation goals. Before joining Valvoline, Mr. Patel was the Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer for Sleep Number, where he managed all enterprise technology capabilities and initiatives aimed at generating incremental revenue and improving cost efficiencies.
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The key risks to Valvoline's business are primarily driven by shifts in the automotive industry, intense market competition, and financial considerations related to its growth strategy.
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Shift to Electric Vehicles (EVs): The most significant long-term threat to Valvoline's core quick-lube business is the accelerated adoption of electric vehicles. EVs require far less traditional lubricant service, such as oil changes, which forms the foundation of Valvoline's revenue. While Valvoline is actively developing EV-specific fluids and services, a rapid shift to an electrified vehicle fleet could substantially diminish the market for its conventional products and services.
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Intense Competition and Market Fragmentation: Valvoline operates within a highly competitive and fragmented quick-lube market. This environment includes major players like Jiffy Lube and numerous independent repair centers, which constantly exert pressure on service prices and, consequently, on Valvoline's margins. Maintaining market share and profitability in such a landscape requires continuous operational efficiency and strategic pricing.
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Debt and Acquisition Risk: Valvoline's strategy of growth, including recent significant, debt-funded acquisitions like Breeze Autocare, introduces financial risks. These acquisitions can increase the company's leverage ratio, raising "near-term balance sheet questions" and substantial financial obligations. There is also the inherent complexity and risk associated with successfully integrating many new locations into its existing operational framework.
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The widespread adoption of Electric Vehicles (EVs) represents a clear emerging threat to Valvoline's core business model. EVs do not require engine oil, oil filters, spark plugs, or traditional engine coolant flushes, significantly reducing the demand for many of Valvoline's primary product offerings (lubricants, antifreeze/coolants for ICE, filters, etc.). Furthermore, the operational model of Valvoline's quick-lube service centers (Valvoline Instant Oil Change, Great Canadian Oil Change) is predicated on frequent maintenance needs of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, particularly oil changes. As the vehicle fleet transitions to EVs, the fundamental service offerings that drive these centers will diminish substantially, challenging the viability and revenue streams of this segment.
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Valvoline Inc. operates in significant addressable markets for its core products and services, primarily automotive lubricants and quick-lube services.
Retail Services (Quick-Lube)
- U.S. Oil Change Service Market: This market was estimated at approximately $8.11 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $14.8 billion by 2034. Other estimates indicate the U.S. oil change service market size at $12.9 billion in 2024 and $13.2 billion in 2025. Sales from oil change and lubrication shops in the U.S. reached $8 billion in 2023 and are forecast to increase to $10.4 billion by 2027.
- Canada Quick Lube Service Market: The total Canadian auto service market is valued at $18.8 billion. Quick lube locations account for approximately 11% of all auto service and repair visits in Canada, indicating an addressable market of roughly $2.07 billion for quick lube services in Canada.
Global Products (Automotive Lubricants)
- Global Automotive Lubricants Market: The global automotive lubricants market size was valued at $77.8 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $116.1 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.1%. Other estimates for the global market size include $73.07 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach $87.40 billion by 2035.
- North America Automotive Lubricants Market: This market was valued at $43.66 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $50.29 billion by 2030. The U.S. portion of the lubricants market is projected to reach $12.81 billion by 2032.
- Canada Automotive Lubricants Market: This market generated a revenue of $1,018.4 million in 2022 and is expected to reach $1,295.5 million by 2030.
Broader Automotive Aftermarket
Valvoline's wider range of products, including antifreeze/coolants, filters, and chemicals, falls under the broader automotive aftermarket.
- U.S. Automotive Aftermarket: The entire U.S. automotive aftermarket, which includes parts, accessories, and services for light, medium, and heavy-duty vehicles, is projected at nearly $535 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach approximately $574 billion in 2026. Another estimate places the U.S. automotive aftermarket size at $260 billion in 2024, projected to reach $348 billion in 2032.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Valvoline (VVV)
- Accelerated Network Growth (New Store Additions and Acquisitions): Valvoline is aggressively expanding its retail service center footprint through both organic new store builds and strategic acquisitions. The company aims to grow its network from approximately 2,180 locations in fiscal year 2025 to a target of 3,500+ stores across the U.S. and Canada. Recent examples include the planned acquisition and integration of Breeze Autocare, which is expected to add 162 stores and contribute significantly to future revenue. This expansion is a primary engine for revenue growth.
- System-Wide Same-Store Sales (SSS) Growth: Valvoline has a strong track record of consistent system-wide same-store sales growth, achieving its 19th consecutive year of SSS growth in fiscal 2025, with a 6.1% increase. The company targets 4-6% same-store sales growth from 2026 to 2028. This growth is driven by a combination of increased customer traffic and higher average ticket sizes.
- Expansion of Premium and Non-Oil Change Service Offerings (Service Mix/Premiumization): Valvoline is focused on enhancing its service mix by expanding non-oil change offerings. This strategy aims to increase the average ticket size per customer visit through the premiumization of services, such as tire rotations and other essential maintenance, beyond basic oil changes. This initiative is designed to meet the needs of an evolving customer base and car parc.
- Effective Pricing Actions: Management has indicated that Valvoline maintains pricing power, with pricing actions contributing to revenue growth. These strategic price adjustments help drive increases in average ticket size without significantly deterring customer traffic, further bolstering revenue.
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Share Repurchases
- Valvoline's board authorized a $1.6 billion share repurchase program on November 10, 2022.
- In fiscal year 2023, the company executed approximately $1.525 billion in share buybacks, including a $1.0 billion "Dutch auction" tender offer.
- On July 30, 2024, the board approved a new $400 million share repurchase authorization.
Inbound Investments
- Valvoline completed the sale of its Global Products business to Aramco for $2.65 billion in cash on March 1, 2023.
- The net cash proceeds from the sale, estimated at approximately $2.25 billion (or $2.38 billion), were intended to accelerate capital returns to shareholders, reduce debt, and invest in the Retail Services business.
Outbound Investments
- On December 1, 2025, Valvoline acquired OC IntermediateCo, which includes the Breeze Autocare business and Oil Changers quick lube stores, for a net purchase price of $593 million.
- This acquisition resulted in a net addition of 162 stores after divesting 45 locations as required by the Federal Trade Commission.
- The acquisition was financed by a newly issued $740 million Term Loan B.
Capital Expenditures
- Valvoline's capital expenditures were $144 million in fiscal year 2021, $132 million in fiscal year 2022, and $180.5 million in fiscal year 2023.
- Projected capital expenditures are $224.4 million for fiscal year 2024 and $259.2 million for fiscal year 2025.
- For fiscal year 2026, the company expects capital expenditures to be between $250 million and $280 million, primarily focused on accelerating network growth and innovating within its Retail Services business.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Valvoline Earnings Notes | 12/27/2025 | |
| How Low Can Valvoline Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Valvoline vs Newmont: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| Valvoline vs Churchill Downs: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| How Does Valvoline Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| VVV Dip Buy Analysis | 07/10/2025 | |
| Valvoline Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -14.2% in 2025 and 13.0% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | 03/07/2025 | |
| Valvoline (VVV) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | 02/17/2025 | |
| Valvoline (VVV) Net Income Comparison | 02/16/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Is Valvoline a Better Buy Than AutoZone? | 01/07/2026 | |
| Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | 12/03/2025 | |
| AutoZone vs Valvoline: Which Stock Could Rally? | 11/04/2025 |
Trade Ideas
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | DPZ | Domino's Pizza | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ETSY | Etsy | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.6% | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | PATK | Patrick Industries | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -1.6% |
| 08312023 | VVV | Valvoline | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 23.8% | 22.5% | -14.8% |
| 09302022 | VVV | Valvoline | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 38.4% | 27.7% | -1.1% |
| 03312020 | VVV | Valvoline | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 47.9% | 103.6% | -9.1% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 153.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 72.5 |
| Rev LTM | 132,538 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,614 |
| FCF LTM | 3,748 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,510 |
| CFO LTM | 6,608 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 7,870 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -2.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -9.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 72.5 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.8 |
| P/EBIT | 15.6 |
| P/E | 25.9 |
| P/CFO | 12.5 |
| Total Yield | 7.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 22.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 45.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 48.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -14.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 16.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -21.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $33.79 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/23/2016 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -16.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $35.43 | $34.81 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -4.6% | -2.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 32.4% | 30.6% |
| Downside Capture | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| Upside Capture | 105.89 | 45.50 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 26.3% | 30.2% |
VVV Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.96 | 0.61 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| Up Beta | -0.45 | 0.11 | 0.94 | 1.15 | 0.77 | 0.84 |
| Down Beta | 0.79 | 1.53 | 1.05 | 0.58 | 0.51 | 0.62 |
| Up Capture | 111% | 75% | 136% | 53% | 40% | 37% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 114 | 355 |
| Down Capture | 127% | 10% | 23% | 68% | 73% | 94% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 19 | 30 | 67 | 136 | 385 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VVV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV | 0.5% | 30.6% | 0.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 29.2% | 19.4% | 1.20 | 43.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 23.7% | 12.7% | 1.52 | 31.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 41.4% | 27.5% | 1.25 | 3.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 22.4% | 16.2% | 1.25 | -2.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.8% | 0.72 | 33.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -10.4% | 42.7% | -0.14 | 4.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VVV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV | 5.3% | 29.1% | 0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.9% | 23.8% | 0.25 | 46.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.8% | 17.1% | 0.49 | 47.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.6% | 17.8% | 0.99 | 7.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.9% | 18.8% | 0.47 | 11.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.1% | 18.8% | 0.12 | 46.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.8% | 56.4% | 0.29 | 15.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with VVV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VVV | 4.9% | 32.8% | 0.23 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.9% | 22.0% | 0.54 | 48.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 50.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.7% | 15.9% | 0.71 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 18.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 50.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.0% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 11.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/4/2026 | 6.9% | 14.1% | 8.3% |
| 11/19/2025 | -2.5% | 0.6% | -6.0% |
| 8/6/2025 | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% |
| 5/8/2025 | -1.9% | 1.0% | 6.0% |
| 2/6/2025 | 7.4% | 7.6% | -4.6% |
| 11/19/2024 | -8.7% | -6.7% | -13.1% |
| 8/7/2024 | -10.1% | -7.7% | -6.9% |
| 5/8/2024 | -4.6% | -5.3% | -5.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 16 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 6.1% | 7.2% | 12.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -4.7% | -5.9% |
| Max Positive | 12.2% | 31.1% | 31.7% |
| Max Negative | -10.1% | -11.0% | -13.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/20/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | O'Daniel, Julie Marie | Chief Legal Officer | Direct | Sell | 11282025 | 31.88 | 3,200 | 102,016 | 549,962 | Form |
| 2 | Flees, Lori Ann | President & CEO | Direct | Buy | 11252025 | 30.82 | 4,500 | 138,690 | 2,134,809 | Form |
| 3 | Willis, J Kevin | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 11242025 | 31.41 | 10,000 | 314,100 | 713,792 | Form |
| 4 | Willis, J Kevin | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Buy | 8152025 | 39.41 | 12,725 | 501,506 | 501,506 | Form |
| 5 | Flees, Lori Ann | President & CEO | Direct | Buy | 5272025 | 33.78 | 3,000 | 101,353 | 1,574,817 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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