Tearsheet

Valvoline (VVV)


Market Price (12/14/2025): $30.99 | Market Cap: $4.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Retail

Valvoline (VVV)


Market Price (12/14/2025): $30.99
Market Cap: $4.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automotive Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78%
 
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 31%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -60%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -78%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

VVV Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate -20% stock movement for Valvoline (VVV) from August 31, 2025, to December 14, 2025: 1. Valvoline's Q4 2025 Earnings Missed Analyst Expectations. On November 19, 2025, Valvoline reported its fourth-quarter earnings for fiscal year 2025, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.45, falling slightly short of the expected $0.47. Revenue also narrowly missed forecasts, leading to an immediate pre-market stock decline of approximately 3% to 3.79%. 2. Increased Leverage Due to the Breeze Autocare Acquisition. The acquisition of Breeze Autocare for $593 million, while strategic, is projected to raise Valvoline's leverage ratio from 3.4 times to around 4.2 times. This temporarily exceeds the company's target leverage ratio of 2.5-3.5x, a point of concern for investors regarding financial risk.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VVV Return11%64%-11%15%-4%-16%51%
Peers Return-24%46%60%11%4%22%152%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VVV Win Rate58%75%33%42%33%33% 
Peers Win Rate40%65%65%52%57%68% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VVV Max Drawdown-57%-2%-32%-10%-8%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-57%-2%-4%-11%-7%-9% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XOM, CVX, PSX, MPC, ORLY. See VVV Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventVVVS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven49.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven210 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven153.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven246 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-32.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven47.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven669 days120 days

Compare to PPG, DOW, EMN, DK, BGSI


In The Past

Valvoline's stock fell -33.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -33.0% loss requires a 49.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Valvoline (VVV)

Better Bets than Valvoline (VVV)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VVV. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%
VVV_9302022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302022VVVValvolineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
38.4%27.7%-1.1%
VVV_3312020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy03312020VVVValvolineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
47.9%103.6%-9.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%
VVV_9302022_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302022VVVValvolineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
38.4%27.7%-1.1%
VVV_3312020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy03312020VVVValvolineDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
47.9%103.6%-9.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Valvoline

Peers to compare with:

Financials

VVVXOMCVXPSXMPCORLYMedian
NameValvolineExxon Mo.Chevron Phillips.Marathon.O'Reilly. 
Mkt Price31.03118.82149.99141.44185.7794.11130.13
Mkt Cap4.6483.1290.857.256.379.868.5
Rev LTM1,710324,924186,979131,953133,26217,463132,608
Op Inc LTM39135,70815,0671,7184,7343,3714,052
FCF LTM3823,77515,4241,3514,2761,5632,919
FCF 3Y Avg-4831,46218,1854,0698,2981,9686,184
CFO LTM29751,52031,8453,4087,3912,7535,400
CFO 3Y Avg17455,76834,2506,06010,7833,0028,421

Growth & Margins

VVVXOMCVXPSXMPCORLYMedian
NameValvolineExxon Mo.Chevron Phillips.Marathon.O'Reilly. 
Rev Chg LTM5.6%-4.4%-3.6%-10.7%-6.1%6.2%-4.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg11.5%-5.6%-6.2%-6.6%-8.3%7.5%-5.9%
Rev Chg Q4.2%-5.1%-1.5%-2.9%-0.8%7.8%-1.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.1%-1.4%-0.4%-0.8%-0.2%2.0%-0.3%
Op Mgn LTM22.9%11.0%8.1%1.3%3.6%19.3%9.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg21.6%12.7%11.2%3.1%6.0%19.7%12.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-3.2%-0.4%-0.3%0.7%0.4%0.1%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM17.4%15.9%17.0%2.6%5.5%15.8%15.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.3%16.5%17.6%4.2%7.4%18.3%13.4%
FCF/Rev LTM2.2%7.3%8.2%1.0%3.2%8.9%5.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-3.5%9.3%9.3%2.8%5.7%12.0%7.5%

Valuation

VVVXOMCVXPSXMPCORLYMedian
NameValvolineExxon Mo.Chevron Phillips.Marathon.O'Reilly. 
Mkt Cap4.6483.1290.857.256.379.868.5
P/S2.71.51.60.40.45.21.5
P/EBIT--13.518.68.527.016.0
P/E21.716.123.636.620.336.822.7
P/CFO15.49.49.516.17.933.212.4
Total Yield4.6%9.8%8.3%6.2%6.9%2.7%6.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%3.6%4.1%3.5%1.9%0.0%2.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg--6.2%7.5%14.3%3.0%6.9%
D/E--0.10.40.60.10.3
Net D/E--0.10.40.50.10.2

Returns

VVVXOMCVXPSXMPCORLYMedian
NameValvolineExxon Mo.Chevron Phillips.Marathon.O'Reilly. 
1M Rtn-2.4%0.0%-2.5%2.3%-4.5%-4.3%-2.5%
3M Rtn-23.3%6.9%-3.5%9.1%3.6%-12.5%0.0%
6M Rtn-12.3%7.9%5.1%17.9%13.0%4.7%6.5%
12M Rtn-19.1%11.1%2.0%19.6%30.5%11.1%11.1%
3Y Rtn-2.2%23.7%-1.3%55.7%78.8%73.3%39.7%
1M Excs Rtn-2.7%0.9%-0.7%3.7%-5.3%-3.7%-1.7%
3M Excs Rtn-26.0%3.5%-6.8%5.5%0.6%-14.7%-3.1%
6M Excs Rtn-26.5%-6.3%-9.1%3.7%-1.2%-9.6%-7.7%
12M Excs Rtn-34.4%-3.8%-13.2%3.7%12.6%-1.7%-2.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-78.2%-46.5%-74.9%-20.5%8.4%-3.2%-33.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single segment1,619  1,037 
Franchise fees and other 7274  
Non-oil changes and related fees 298248  
Oil changes and related fees 1,074913  
Global Products    1,470
Retail Services    883
Total1,6191,4441,2361,0372,353


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,409,350
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520252.2%
Average Daily Volume2,670,517
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.90
Basic Shares Quantity127,600,000
Short % of Basic Shares8.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/19/2025-2.5%0.6% 
8/6/20254.6%6.8%7.5%
5/8/2025-1.9%1.0%6.0%
2/6/20257.4%7.6%-4.6%
11/19/2024-8.7%-6.7%-13.1%
8/7/2024-10.1%-7.7%-6.9%
5/8/2024-4.6%-5.3%-5.9%
2/6/20242.9%9.2%20.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121611
# Negative12813
Median Positive5.0%6.0%13.4%
Median Negative-3.2%-4.7%-6.2%
Max Positive12.2%31.1%31.7%
Max Negative-10.1%-11.0%-13.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251121202510-K 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241122202410-K 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024510202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023206202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231120202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023510202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022207202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221123202210-K 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021209202210-Q 12/31/2021