Phillips 66 (PSX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $131.33 | Market Cap: $53.1 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Phillips 66 (PSX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $131.33Market Cap: $53.1 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2%, Dividend Yield is 3.5% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -24% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 16x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.4 Bil | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.9% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% | Key risksPSX key risks include [1] lower-than-expected financial performance in its refining segment due to margin compression and operational challenges, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, Advanced Materials, and Electrification of Everything. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2%, Dividend Yield is 3.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 36% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, Advanced Materials, and Electrification of Everything. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -32%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -24% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 16x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.9% |
| Key risksPSX key risks include [1] lower-than-expected financial performance in its refining segment due to margin compression and operational challenges, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PSX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
I cannot provide an analysis for Phillips 66 (PSX) stock movement with a -0.4% change for the exact time period of August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025. My access to real-time and future market data is limited. However, available information up to December 2025 shows various factors influencing PSX, though not necessarily correlating to a specific -0.4% drop over that precise window. Here are some general key points from the approximate time period that could influence stock movement for Phillips 66 (PSX) up to December 2025: 1. 1. Strong Midstream Growth and Projects: UBS maintained a Buy rating on Phillips 66, citing successful midstream business expansion. Major projects like Dos Picos II, Iron Mesa, and Coastal Bend/EPIC expansion are expected to drive significant growth in midstream EBITDA, aiming for a $4.5 billion run rate by 2027. 2. 2. Robust Q3 2025 Operational Performance and Earnings: Phillips 66 reported strong operational performance for the third quarter of 2025, with adjusted earnings reaching $1 billion, or $2.52 per share, surpassing consensus estimates of $2.14. Operating cash flow was $1.2 billion, indicating a solid financial position. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PSX Return | -34% | 9% | 50% | 33% | -12% | 20% | 52% |
| Peers Return | -34% | 47% | 74% | 5% | -6% | 25% | 108% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PSX Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 75% | 58% | 42% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 35% | 65% | 68% | 50% | 48% | 63% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PSX Max Drawdown | -62% | -5% | 0% | -11% | -14% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -62% | -1% | -2% | -16% | -12% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VLO, MPC, XOM, CVX, DINO. See PSX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PSX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 166.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 974 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -36.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,723 days | 120 days |
Compare to MPC, VLO, NFE, PSX, DINO
In The Past
Phillips 66's stock fell -32.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -32.7% loss requires a 48.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PSX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.4% | 9.4% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 27.1% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -7.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.7% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.4% | 9.4% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.1% | 27.1% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.0% | -3.0% | -7.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Phillips 66
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 140.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 53.1 |
| Rev LTM | 132,608 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,910 |
| FCF LTM | 4,118 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,643 |
| CFO LTM | 6,115 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 9,354 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 53.1 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/EBIT | 13.5 |
| P/E | 24.2 |
| P/CFO | 9.4 |
| Total Yield | 7.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -6.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 23.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 35.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -35.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midstream | 29,107 | 30,273 | 15,932 | 15,596 | 15,716 |
| Refining | 22,432 | 21,581 | 19,952 | 20,404 | 25,150 |
| Marketing and Specialties | 11,411 | 9,939 | 8,505 | 7,180 | 8,659 |
| Chemicals | 7,357 | 6,785 | 6,453 | 6,183 | 6,249 |
| Corporate and Other | 5,194 | 7,864 | 4,752 | 5,358 | 2,946 |
| Total | 75,501 | 76,442 | 55,594 | 54,721 | 58,720 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| 7/25/2025 | 0.5% | -0.6% | 5.6% |
| 4/25/2025 | -0.7% | -1.2% | 9.1% |
| 1/31/2025 | -2.5% | -0.0% | 4.4% |
| 10/29/2024 | -4.4% | -6.1% | 5.1% |
| 7/30/2024 | 4.8% | -6.2% | -3.5% |
| 4/26/2024 | -3.7% | -8.5% | -8.5% |
| 10/27/2023 | 0.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 15 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 1.5% | 1.6% | 5.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.7% | -4.7% | -2.8% |
| Max Positive | 4.8% | 8.4% | 33.8% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -8.5% | -21.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7282025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4292024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |