Tearsheet

Phillips 66 (PSX)


Market Price (11/10/2025): $138.58 | Market Cap: $56.1 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Phillips 66 (PSX)


Market Price (11/10/2025): $138.58
Market Cap: $56.1 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.8%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 16x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.4 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -9.3%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.9%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.1%, Dividend Yield is 3.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.4 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.8%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -9.3%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 16x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -11%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.6%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -2.9%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

PSX Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PSX Return-34%9%50%33%-12%25%57%
Peers Return29%11%58%14%-16%4%126%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PSX Win Rate33%42%75%58%42%80% 
Peers Win Rate37%37%55%43%32%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PSX Max Drawdown-62%-5%0%-11%-14%-18% 
Peers Max Drawdown-50%-13%-3%-14%-22%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MPC, VLO, NFE, DLXY, PSX. See PSX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/7/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPSXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven46 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-62.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven166.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven974 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-36.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven57.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1723 days120 days

Compare to MPC, VLO, NFE, DLXY, PSX


In The Past

Phillips 66's stock fell -32.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -32.7% loss requires a 48.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Phillips 66 (PSX)

Better Bets than Phillips 66 (PSX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PSX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.0%8.0%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
25.5%25.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.0%-2.0%-5.7%
SLB_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025SLBSLBDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.6%15.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
8.0%8.0%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
25.5%25.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.0%-2.0%-5.7%
SLB_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025SLBSLBDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.6%15.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Phillips 66

Financials

PSXMPCVLONFEDLXYMedian
NamePhillips.Marathon.Valero E.New Fort.Delixy  
Mkt Price137.95193.76175.621.341.03137.95
Mkt Cap55.858.754.30.4-55.0
Rev LTM131,953133,262123,0712,019-127,512
Op Inc LTM1,7184,7343,085240-2,402
FCF LTM1,3514,2763,960-1,888-2,656
FCF 3Y Avg4,0698,2986,989-1,942-5,529
CFO LTM3,4087,3914,83940-4,124
CFO 3Y Avg6,06010,7837,926404-6,993

Growth & Margins

PSXMPCVLONFEDLXYMedian
NamePhillips.Marathon.Valero E.New Fort.Delixy  
Rev Chg LTM-10.7%-6.1%-8.5%-15.6%--9.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-6.6%-8.3%-10.3%0.6%--7.4%
Rev Chg Q-2.9%-0.8%-2.2%-29.5%--2.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.8%-0.2%-0.6%-5.9%--0.7%
Op Mgn LTM1.3%3.6%2.5%11.9%-3.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.1%6.0%5.3%27.5%-5.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.7%0.4%0.8%-5.6%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM2.6%5.5%3.9%2.0%-3.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.2%7.4%5.7%16.9%-6.6%
FCF/Rev LTM1.0%3.2%3.2%-93.5%-2.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg2.8%5.7%5.0%-85.8%-3.9%

Valuation

PSXMPCVLONFEDLXYMedian
NamePhillips.Marathon.Valero E.New Fort.Delixy  
Mkt Cap55.858.754.30.4-55.0
P/S0.40.40.40.2-0.4
P/EBIT18.88.523.0-1.0-13.7
P/E37.120.436.3-0.4-28.3
P/CFO16.47.911.29.3-10.2
Total Yield6.1%6.8%5.3%-263.4%-5.7%
Dividend Yield3.4%1.9%2.6%0.0%-2.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.5%14.3%14.6%-96.2%-10.9%
D/E0.40.60.225.6-0.5
Net D/E0.40.50.124.1-0.4

Returns

PSXMPCVLONFEDLXYMedian
NamePhillips.Marathon.Valero E.New Fort.Delixy  
1M Rtn8.8%7.1%11.1%-28.3%21.5%8.8%
3M Rtn16.9%20.5%31.8%-50.7%-78.4%16.9%
6M Rtn26.8%29.1%45.3%-78.8%-28.0%
12M Rtn13.2%28.2%32.7%-85.2%-20.7%
3Y Rtn44.8%72.8%45.5%-97.0%-45.1%
1M Excs Rtn------
3M Excs Rtn9.3%13.7%24.9%-57.3%-86.9%9.3%
6M Excs Rtn23.4%25.8%41.9%-82.2%-24.6%
12M Excs Rtn4.6%18.9%24.5%-97.8%-11.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-9.3%21.2%-5.2%-155.6%--7.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Midstream29,10730,27315,93215,59615,716
Refining22,43221,58119,95220,40425,150
Marketing and Specialties11,4119,9398,5057,1808,659
Chemicals7,3576,7856,4536,1836,249
Corporate and Other5,1947,8644,7525,3582,946
Total75,50176,44255,59454,72158,720


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,057,251
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302025-20.5%
Average Daily Volume1,814,077
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.34
Basic Shares Quantity404,508,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/20253.2%1.6% 
7/25/20250.5%-0.6%5.6%
4/25/2025-0.7%-1.2%9.1%
1/31/2025-2.5%-0.0%4.4%
10/29/2024-4.4%-6.1%5.1%
7/30/20244.8%-6.2%-3.5%
4/26/2024-3.7%-8.5%-8.5%
10/27/20230.8%7.3%8.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91114
# Negative14129
Median Positive1.5%1.6%5.7%
Median Negative-2.7%-4.7%-2.8%
Max Positive4.8%8.4%33.8%
Max Negative-9.3%-8.5%-21.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025728202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024731202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024429202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Sutherland Vanessa AllenEVP, GC and Secretary9292025Sell140.004,393615,0204,842,180Form
1HAYES GREGORY 8142025Buy119.908,3501,001,1653,527,834Form
2Pease Robert W 5272025Buy113.8543949,980465,804Form