Phillips 66 (PSX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $138.36 | Market Cap: $56.0 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Phillips 66 (PSX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $138.36Market Cap: $56.0 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, Advanced Materials, and Electrification of Everything. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, Advanced Materials, and Electrification of Everything. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PSX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the movement of Phillips 66 (PSX) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Strategic Asset Divestment: Phillips 66 completed the sale of a 65% interest in its Germany and Austria retail marketing business for approximately €1.5 billion (about $1.6 billion) in pre-tax proceeds on December 1, 2025. This move was highlighted by the company as strengthening its balance sheet and optimizing its portfolio through the monetization of non-core assets at attractive valuations.
2. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings: The company reported robust operational performance for the third quarter of 2025, with adjusted earnings reaching $1 billion, or $2.52 per share, surpassing analyst estimates of $2.14. This strong performance was primarily driven by higher realized refining margins globally and generated $1.2 billion in operating cash flow.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PSX Return | -34% | 9% | 50% | 33% | -12% | 25% | 58% |
| Peers Return | 20% | 17% | 70% | 16% | -22% | 16% | 148% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PSX Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 75% | 58% | 42% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 42% | 48% | 68% | 53% | 38% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PSX Max Drawdown | -62% | -5% | 0% | -11% | -14% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -62% | -14% | -6% | -19% | -29% | -33% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MPC, VLO, NFE, PSX, DINO. See PSX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PSX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -32.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 46 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -62.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 166.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 974 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -36.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1723 days | 120 days |
Compare to MPC, VLO, NFE, PSX, DINO
In The Past
Phillips 66's stock fell -32.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -32.7% loss requires a 48.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PSX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Phillips 66
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Valuation
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Returns
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Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midstream | 29,107 | 30,273 | 15,932 | 15,596 | 15,716 |
| Refining | 22,432 | 21,581 | 19,952 | 20,404 | 25,150 |
| Marketing and Specialties | 11,411 | 9,939 | 8,505 | 7,180 | 8,659 |
| Chemicals | 7,357 | 6,785 | 6,453 | 6,183 | 6,249 |
| Corporate and Other | 5,194 | 7,864 | 4,752 | 5,358 | 2,946 |
| Total | 75,501 | 76,442 | 55,594 | 54,721 | 58,720 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7282025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4292024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2182022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |