Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Market Price (3/19/2026): $158.78 | Market Cap: $672.6 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Exxon Mobil (XOM)
Market Price (3/19/2026): $158.78Market Cap: $672.6 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Integrated Oil & Gas
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.6% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.8%, Dist 3Y High is -0.8% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 13x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 52 Bil, FCF LTM is 24 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -8.0% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.3% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | Key risksXOM key risks include [1] growing regulatory, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 52 Bil, FCF LTM is 24 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.8%, Dist 3Y High is -0.8% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -8.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 13x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.4%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.3% |
| Key risksXOM key risks include [1] growing regulatory, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strong Fourth-Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Record Production.
Exxon Mobil reported fourth-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.71 per share, excluding identified items, surpassing analyst estimates by $0.08. The company achieved its highest full-year upstream production in over 40 years, averaging 4.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day. This was bolstered by record Permian Basin output of 1.8 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and increased Guyana production of approximately 875,000 barrels per day following the early startup of the Yellowtail project.
2. Robust Shareholder Return Program.
ExxonMobil demonstrated a strong commitment to shareholder returns, distributing $37.2 billion in 2025, which included $20.0 billion in share repurchases and $17.2 billion in dividends. The company plans to continue this trend with an additional $20 billion in share repurchases through 2026. Additionally, ExxonMobil increased its fourth-quarter dividend by 4%, marking its 43rd consecutive year of annual dividend growth.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 36.9% change in XOM stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 40.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 115.15 | 157.59 | 36.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 324,924 | 323,905 | -0.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.2% | 8.9% | -3.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 16.5 | 23.1 | 40.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,285 | 4,236 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 36.9% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 36.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.2% | 1.4% |
| Sector (XLE) | 29.2% | 90.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 40.0% change in XOM stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 47.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 112.55 | 157.59 | 40.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 329,385 | 323,905 | -1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.4% | 8.9% | -5.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.7 | 23.1 | 47.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,331 | 4,236 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 40.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 40.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| Sector (XLE) | 30.4% | 89.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 46.4% change in XOM stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 64.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 107.63 | 157.59 | 46.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 339,247 | 323,905 | -4.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.9% | 8.9% | -10.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.1 | 23.1 | 64.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,412 | 4,236 | 4.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 46.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 46.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.3% | 37.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 31.6% | 90.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 58.8% change in XOM stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 214.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 99.24 | 157.59 | 58.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 398,675 | 323,905 | -18.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.0% | 8.9% | -36.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.4 | 23.1 | 214.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 4,139 | 4,236 | -2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 58.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XOM | 58.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.1% | 28.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | 53.3% | 90.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XOM Return | 58% | 87% | -6% | 11% | 16% | 33% | 375% |
| Peers Return | 60% | 83% | 4% | -7% | 10% | 39% | 334% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -2% | 79% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XOM Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 65% | 53% | 45% | 65% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XOM Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | -9% | -3% | -6% | -2% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -1% | 0% | -15% | -12% | -16% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CVX, COP, OXY, MPC, VLO. See XOM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | XOM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -55.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 125.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 659 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,169 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,738 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to CVX, COP, OXY, MPC, VLO
In The Past
Exxon Mobil's stock fell -20.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -20.5% loss requires a 25.8% gain to breakeven.
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About Exxon Mobil (XOM)
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1. General Motors of energy.
2. Caterpillar for fossil fuels.
3. Amazon for the world's fuel and chemical needs.
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- Crude Oil and Natural Gas: Exxon Mobil explores for, produces, and sells crude oil and natural gas.
- Petroleum Products: The company manufactures, trades, transports, and sells refined petroleum products like gasoline, diesel, and lubricants.
- Petrochemicals: Exxon Mobil produces and sells a variety of petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, and aromatics.
- Carbon Capture and Storage: The company provides services for capturing and storing carbon dioxide.
- Hydrogen and Biofuels: Exxon Mobil is involved in the production and sale of hydrogen and biofuels.
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Darren W. Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Darren W. Woods is a career veteran of ExxonMobil, having joined Exxon Company International in 1992 as a planning analyst in Florham Park, New Jersey. He progressed through a variety of domestic and international assignments for Exxon Company International, ExxonMobil Chemical Company, and ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company. Woods served as vice president of ExxonMobil Chemical Company, managing global specialty-chemical businesses, and later as director of refining for Europe, Africa, and the Middle East for ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company. He was appointed president of ExxonMobil Refining and Supply Company and vice president of Exxon Mobil Corporation in 2012, and then elected senior vice president in 2014. Effective January 1, 2016, Woods was elected president of Exxon Mobil Corporation and a member of the board of directors, and on January 1, 2017, he was elected Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Woods earned a Bachelor of Science degree in electrical engineering from Texas A&M University and a Master of Business Administration from Northwestern's Kellogg School of Management. He has not founded or managed other companies, sold companies, or managed companies backed by private equity firms.
Neil A. Hansen, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Neil A. Hansen assumed the role of Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation effective February 1, 2026. Prior to this, he served as President of ExxonMobil Global Business Solutions from May 2025. His earlier roles include Senior Vice President, Energy Products for ExxonMobil Product Solutions Company from April 2022 to May 2025, and Vice President, Europe, Africa & Middle East Fuels from March 2020 to April 2022. Mr. Hansen has also held several senior finance positions within the corporation's Controllers, Audit, Treasurers, and Investor Relations departments, including Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Secretary from 2018 to 2020. He joined ExxonMobil in 2000 as a Financial Analyst in Exploration. Mr. Hansen received his MBA in Finance from the Thunderbird School of Global Management and is a graduate of the University of St. Thomas. He has not founded or managed other companies, sold companies, or managed companies backed by private equity firms.
Neil A. Chapman, Senior Vice President
Neil A. Chapman joined the Exxon Mobil Corporation Management Committee as Senior Vice President in 2018. He began his career with Esso Chemical Company in 1984 in the United Kingdom, progressing through various engineering, operations, planning, and commercial roles in chemical affiliates across the United Kingdom, Belgium, the United States, and Hong Kong. Following the Exxon and Mobil merger, he served as ExxonMobil Chemical Company's Asia Pacific polyolefins sales manager and was the project executive for the Fujian integrated refining and ethylene joint venture project in China. His experience also includes roles in aviation fuels marketing, industrial and wholesale fuels, and as vice president of ExxonMobil Chemical Company's global polyethylene business. He served as executive assistant to the chairman of Exxon Mobil Corporation and later as president of ExxonMobil Global Services Company. Mr. Chapman was appointed Senior Vice President for global polymers businesses in ExxonMobil Chemical Company in 2011 and became President of ExxonMobil Chemical Company in 2015. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in chemical engineering from the University of Surrey, England.
Jack P. Williams, Senior Vice President
Jack P. Williams was elected Senior Vice President of Exxon Mobil Corporation in 2014. Before taking on his current position, he served as executive vice president of ExxonMobil Production Company. From 2010 to 2013, Mr. Williams was president of XTO Energy Inc., which ExxonMobil acquired in 2010. His career at Exxon began in April 1987 as a drilling engineer in New Orleans, Louisiana. He held various technical, supervisory, and planning positions, including two years in the U.S. upstream planning organization, operations superintendent for East Texas field areas, and operations manager for Gulf Coast and offshore California properties. He also oversaw the company's North Slope and Cook Inlet interests in Alaska and served as deputy production manager for South China Sea operations in Malaysia. Mr. Williams is a graduate of Vanderbilt University with a Bachelor of Engineering degree.
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The key risks to Exxon Mobil's business include:-
Climate Change and Energy Transition Risks
Exxon Mobil faces significant and growing risks associated with climate change and the global energy transition. This includes increasing regulatory and environmental pressures, such as stringent climate policies and carbon emissions regulations, which can impact operations and profitability, requiring substantial investments for compliance. Shareholders have consistently pressed the company for clearer disclosures on climate-change financial risks, particularly concerning the impact of global climate agreements like the Paris Agreement on its reserves and financial profile. The long-term reliance on fossil fuels also exposes Exxon Mobil to risks as the world shifts towards lower-carbon energy sources, leading to potential stranded assets and heightened climate-related liabilities. Furthermore, the company has faced scrutiny for historically downplaying climate science, despite its own scientists accurately predicting global warming, which poses reputational and litigation risks. The potential threat by Exxon Mobil to exit the European market due to strict sustainability regulations, such as the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), further underscores the regulatory challenges it faces.
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Commodity Price Volatility
As a major explorer and producer of crude oil and natural gas, Exxon Mobil's financial performance is highly susceptible to the volatility of commodity prices. Fluctuations in the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and petrochemicals can significantly impact the company's revenue, earnings, cash flow, and capital spending plans. Economic downturns, geopolitical tensions, and imbalances between global supply and demand are key drivers of this market volatility. The company's strong cash flow generation is heavily dependent on sustained high oil and gas prices, and a prolonged decline in these prices would significantly erode its operating cash flow.
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Geopolitical Risks
Exxon Mobil's extensive international operations expose it to various geopolitical risks that can disrupt its business. These risks include political instability, conflicts, and regional tensions, particularly in critical energy-producing and transit regions like the Persian Gulf. Events such as the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil flows, could lead to operational disruptions and sharp spikes in crude prices, impacting global supply chains and the cost of operations. Such unforeseen events and supply disruptions can have an unpredictable and substantial effect on Exxon Mobil's facilities, production, and overall market dynamics.
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The accelerating global energy transition, driven by advancements in renewable energy technologies, electric vehicle adoption, and increasing governmental and societal pressure for decarbonization, poses a clear emerging threat. This trend directly challenges the long-term demand for crude oil and natural gas, which constitute the vast majority of Exxon Mobil's core business operations across its Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments. As alternative energy sources become more prevalent and cost-competitive, and as regulations favor lower-carbon solutions, the market for traditional fossil fuels faces a sustained and systemic decline.
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) operates in several large addressable markets for its main products and services. The market sizes for these key areas, primarily on a global scale, are outlined below:
- Crude Oil: The global crude oil market size was valued at approximately USD 3.05 trillion in 2025.
- Natural Gas: The global natural gas market was valued at approximately USD 1.48 trillion in 2025, and is projected to grow.
- Petroleum Products (Refined Products): The global refined petroleum products market is estimated to be USD 1.17 trillion in 2025.
- Petrochemicals: The global petrochemical market size was estimated at approximately USD 700.53 billion in 2025.
- Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): The global carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies market was valued at approximately USD 4.57 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 68.92 billion by 2034.
- Hydrogen: The global hydrogen market size was valued at approximately USD 229.53 billion in 2025. For green hydrogen specifically, the market size was USD 12.31 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase significantly.
- Biofuels: The global biofuels market is projected to be valued at approximately USD 178.34 billion in 2025.
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Exxon Mobil (XOM) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:
- Increased Upstream Production from Key Basins and LNG Projects: Exxon Mobil projects significant growth in its upstream production, particularly from advantaged assets such as the Permian Basin in the U.S., Guyana's Stabroek Block, and various Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) projects globally. The company expects these high-return, low-cost-of-supply assets to constitute a substantial portion of its total production by 2030, with upstream production targeted to reach approximately 5.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by that time. Permian production alone is projected to exceed 2.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day beyond 2030. This growth is bolstered by strategic acquisitions, such as Pioneer Natural Resources, which are expected to generate significant synergies and boost production capacity.
- Expansion into High-Value Products within Product Solutions: The company is accelerating its shift towards a more profitable product mix within its Product Solutions segment, which encompasses its downstream and chemical operations. This strategy involves increasing the production and sale of high-value products, including performance chemicals, lower-emission fuels, and high-value lubricants, targeting substantial earnings growth by 2030. Exxon Mobil aims to transform lower-value molecules into higher-value products through strategic investments and proprietary technology deployment.
- Growth of Low Carbon Solutions Business: Exxon Mobil is making substantial investments in its Low Carbon Solutions business, targeting areas such as carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen production, and lithium supply for batteries. The company plans to pursue up to $30 billion in lower-emission investment opportunities between 2025 and 2030, with a significant portion directed towards reducing emissions for third-party customers. This segment is expected to contribute new revenue streams and generate considerable earnings by 2030 and beyond, driven by supportive government policies and market interest.
- Technological Advancements and Operational Efficiencies: The deployment of advanced technologies is a key driver for enhancing production and optimizing value across Exxon Mobil's operations. Examples include the use of lightweight proppant in Permian Basin wells, which has demonstrated increased recovery, and the scaling of proprietary Proxxima™ systems for various industrial applications. These technological advancements, coupled with ongoing structural cost savings, contribute to higher output from existing assets and improved overall profitability, indirectly boosting revenue by maximizing resource utilization and product realization.
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Share Repurchases
- Exxon Mobil repurchased $17.748 billion in shares in 2023, $19.629 billion in 2024, and $20.273 billion in 2025.
- The company is on track to repurchase $20 billion of its shares in 2025 and plans to maintain this pace through 2026.
- Share repurchases were $154 million in 2021 and $4.675 billion in 2022.
Outbound Investments
- Exxon Mobil announced a $59.5 billion all-stock deal to acquire Pioneer Natural Resources in October 2023, valued at $64.5 billion including net debt. This acquisition is expected to fortify domestic production in the Permian Basin.
- The company intends to divest approximately $25 billion of hydrocarbon assets through 2025 to focus on more profitable projects, with asset sales occurring in Asia, Africa, and Europe.
- ExxonMobil made a $100 million investment in the chip industry in 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Exxon Mobil's capital expenditures were $18.407 billion in 2022, $21.919 billion in 2023, $24.306 billion in 2024, and $28.358 billion in 2025.
- The company expects cash capital expenditures to be $27-$29 billion in 2026.
- Capital expenditures are primarily focused on increasing oil and gas production in the Permian Basin, deepwater production offshore Guyana and Brazil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in Papua New Guinea and Mozambique.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Exxon Mobil Stock 5-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 7.2% | 03/18/2026 | |
| Does Exxon Mobil Stock Have More Upside? | 03/12/2026 | |
| How Exxon Mobil Stock Gained 40% | 03/07/2026 | |
| Does Exxon Mobil Stock Still Have Room to Run? | 03/05/2026 | |
| How Exxon Mobil Stock Gained 50% | 02/20/2026 | |
| Exxon Mobil Stock vs Competition: Who Wins? | 02/13/2026 | |
| Why Exxon Mobil Stock Jumped 40%? | 02/05/2026 | |
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Exxon Mobil Stock | 01/24/2026 | |
| How Low Can Exxon Mobil Stock Really Go? | 10/17/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Can Agentic AI Save the Market From $110 Oil? | 03/19/2026 | |
| Exxon Mobil Stock Surges 7.2%, With A 5-Day Winning Spree | 03/18/2026 | |
| Iran War: The Why | 03/11/2026 | |
| The Iran Shock: How Smart Money Is Repositioning | 03/09/2026 | |
| Why U.S. Stocks Aren’t Crashing With Iran War | 03/05/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to XOM.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12262025 | TPL | Texas Pacific Land | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 82.3% | 82.3% | -2.1% |
| 12122025 | NOV | NOV | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 23.6% | 23.6% | -6.5% |
| 12122025 | RIG | Transocean | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 56.9% | 56.9% | -7.0% |
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.6% | 31.6% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 41.7% | 41.7% | 0.0% |
| 06302024 | XOM | Exxon Mobil | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -6.0% | -3.1% | -11.0% |
| 08312023 | XOM | Exxon Mobil | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -4.3% | 9.8% | -12.1% |
| 08312022 | XOM | Exxon Mobil | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 17.8% | 20.2% | -12.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 178.10 |
| Mkt Cap | 112.3 |
| Rev LTM | 127,693 |
| Op Inc LTM | 8,555 |
| FCF LTM | 6,136 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 7,849 |
| CFO LTM | 15,164 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 15,694 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -8.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 112.3 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/EBIT | 15.0 |
| P/E | 24.0 |
| P/CFO | 10.1 |
| Total Yield | 6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 35.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 31.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 36.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 61.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 18.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 37.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 31.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 20.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -18.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream | 289,523 | 206,366 | 206,459 | 209,272 | 216,017 |
| Energy Products | 75,542 | 74,460 | 73,565 | 64,630 | |
| Corporate and Financing | 42,351 | 49,817 | 44,671 | 22,863 | 20,072 |
| Chemical Products | 35,137 | 34,675 | 33,217 | 31,250 | |
| Specialty Products | 10,922 | 10,999 | 11,155 | 10,908 | |
| Chemical | 38,059 | ||||
| Downstream | 58,602 | ||||
| Total | 453,475 | 376,317 | 369,067 | 338,923 | 332,750 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $157.59 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 667.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -0.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $143.01 | $119.15 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 10.2% | 32.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 26.3% | 24.6% |
| Downside Capture | -132.29 | -8.87 |
| Upside Capture | 36.71 | 30.16 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -4.3% | 38.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| Up Beta | 1.41 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| Down Beta | 2.12 | 1.15 | 0.67 | 0.74 | 0.97 | 0.71 |
| Up Capture | -29% | 32% | 38% | 10% | 23% | 10% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 26 | 35 | 71 | 141 | 398 |
| Down Capture | -194% | -214% | -175% | -111% | -5% | 43% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 15 | 25 | 52 | 109 | 351 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 43.5% | 24.6% | 1.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 31.5% | 24.7% | 1.06 | 90.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.7% | 18.9% | 0.73 | 39.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 62.0% | 26.4% | 1.81 | 16.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 18.3% | 17.3% | 0.85 | 65.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 16.1% | 0.08 | 37.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -12.1% | 44.3% | -0.16 | 14.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 25.5% | 26.6% | 0.86 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 21.2% | 26.1% | 0.74 | 92.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.4% | 17.0% | 0.57 | 33.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 22.6% | 17.3% | 1.07 | 16.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 19.0% | 0.45 | 62.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.2% | 18.8% | 0.13 | 26.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.0% | 56.7% | 0.31 | 10.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XOM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 11.5% | 27.8% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 11.1% | 29.4% | 0.41 | 91.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.6% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 51.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.1% | 15.7% | 0.75 | 6.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 57.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 41.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.9% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 11.7% |
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Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/04/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/22/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 12182025 | 117.19 | 3,000 | 351,570 | 3,349,759 | Form |
| 2 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 12152025 | 118.75 | 3,000 | 356,250 | 3,750,600 | Form |
| 3 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 8252025 | 110.45 | 2,158 | 238,351 | 1,527,414 | Form |
| 4 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 3182025 | 113.00 | 2,100 | 237,300 | 1,806,531 | Form |
| 5 | Talley, Darrin L | VP - Corp Strategic Planning | Revocable Trust | Sell | 2092026 | 149.18 | 3,230 | 481,835 | 3,036,308 | Form |
XOM Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew is exceptionally attractive at 3.5x. This is driven by a 'RESILIENT' competitive moat (due to widening structural advantages) and a strong sector backdrop, which assigns a high (70%) probability to the upside case. The stock is judged to be CHEAP, with a clear alpha driver in its low-cost production growth that provides a fundamental basis for potential re-rating, justifying an OVERWEIGHT rating.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityExxon Mobil's revenue is overwhelmingly dictated by global oil and gas prices (commodities), making its earnings and stock price inherently cyclical. The business strategy focuses on supply/demand dynamics and achieving the lowest cost of production to maximize profitability across the cycle.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The core long thesis rests on XOM's superior, low-cost asset base, particularly in Guyana and the Permian basin. These assets allow the company to profitably grow production volumes even in a stable or moderately weak commodity price environment, generating significant free cash flow through the cycle.
- Production from advantaged assets in Guyana and the Permian is growing, with Q4 2025 production hitting a 40-year high at 5.0 million oil-equivalent barrels per day.
- The Stabroek block in Guyana is one of the lowest-cost new oil developments globally, providing a structural margin advantage.
- The company's breakeven portfolio price is below $40/bbl, ensuring cash flow generation in most macroeconomic scenarios.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is a significant downturn in global crude oil prices (e.g., below $60/bbl) caused by a global recession or a breakdown in OPEC+ production discipline. Despite XOM's low-cost position, a severe price drop would materially impact revenue, earnings, and cash flow, overriding operational successes.
- The company's primary bear case is explicitly a 'Commodity Price Crash <$60/bbl'.
- Analysts are already revising EPS estimates downward for 2026 and 2027, indicating sensitivity to a softening price outlook.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Upstream Production Volume | Guidance of ~3.8-3.9 Million BOE/day | This is the primary driver of the 'Alpha' thesis. Meeting or exceeding production targets validates execution and the value of advantaged assets. |
| Brent Crude Spot Price | Sustained price <$70/bbl | This is the trigger for the 'Anti-Alpha' risk. A breach of this level would signal a cyclical downturn and lead to significant negative EPS revisions. |
| Product Solutions Segment Margins | QoQ decline >10% | Weakness in this downstream segment, as noted in recent earnings, is a key near-term risk. Further margin compression would indicate a cyclical peak in refining and chemicals, dragging on overall earnings. |
Operational Excellence vs. Macro Headwinds
BULL VIEW
XOM's superior, low-cost assets are driving historic production growth, generating significant free cash flow that can sustain shareholder returns regardless of price volatility.
CORE TENSION
Can record-breaking production volumes from advantaged assets (Guyana, Permian) offset the negative impact of softening global commodity prices and weakening downstream margins?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest earnings report showed record production hitting 5.0 million BOE/day, but the stock fell as analysts focused on downward EPS revisions and weak international chemical earnings.
BEAR VIEW
As a price-taker, XOM's strong operational performance is irrelevant if a global slowdown or OPEC+ breakdown causes a commodity price crash, crushing revenue and earnings.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Product Solutions segment margins and FY26 production guidance. A decline greater than 10% in margins would be a major negative. |
Ongoing (Next 6 Months) | OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting Watch: Any change in production quotas. Statements suggesting a shift from cuts to a market share strategy would be a key negative signal. |
Anytime | Geopolitical Developments in Guyana Watch: Reports of Venezuelan naval incursions or attempts to interdict drilling ships in the Stabroek block. |
Mid-2026 | EPA Methane Rules Update Watch: Company disclosures on estimated compliance costs for the EPA's Waste Emissions Charge (WEC) on methane. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-09-03 | Barclays CEO Energy Power Conference Details: ExxonMobil participated in the Barclays conference, providing an update to the investment community on its operations and outlook. | Fell notably by -2.42% $113.69 -> $110.93 |
2025-10-31 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Announced strong Q3 earnings of $1.76 per share and record production in Guyana and the Permian. The company returned $9.4 billion to shareholders. | Muted (-0.29%) $113.69 -> $113.36 |
2025-12-09 | Corporate Plan Update Details: ExxonMobil held an event to update investors and analysts on its corporate plan, providing long-term strategic outlook and capital allocation priorities. | Rose significantly by 1.96% $115.98 -> $118.25 |
2026-01-09 | Geopolitical Development Details: CEO Darren Woods met with the U.S. President to discuss the future of the oil and gas industry in Venezuela, a key region for future growth and risk. | Modest 1.38% gain $122.91 -> $124.61 |
2026-01-30 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported adjusted EPS of $1.71 (beat) on record annual production. However, the stock reaction was muted due to weaker crude prices and significant margin compression in Chemical Products. | Flat (0.63%) $140.51 -> $141.40 |
2026-02-05 | Strategic Asset Purchase Details: ExxonMobil completed the $2.32 billion purchase of the 'One Guyana' FPSO vessel, taking full ownership of its key production asset in the Stabroek block ahead of schedule. | Modest 0.99% gain $147.59 -> $149.05 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Stock has spiking near-term volatility. While valuation is cheap and the moat is strong, the Neutral sentiment, low revenue visibility, and clear cyclical headwinds in downstream warrant a cautious initial position.
Diversification Alternatives
COP
SECTOROffers a more pure-play upstream exposure without the cyclical drag from downstream/chemical operations that is currently pressuring XOM. Valuation is also comparatively cheaper.
CNQ
SECTORDemonstrates strong production growth and a disciplined financial policy with a focus on shareholder returns. Operates in a stable regulatory environment in North America.
Exxon Mobil is executing a manufacturing-style strategy, focusing on structurally lowering costs and concentrating production in its highest-return 'advantaged assets' (Permian, Guyana) to deliver peer-leading cash flow and shareholder returns regardless of commodity price volatility.
Filter all news through the lens of operational execution and cost control within the 'advantaged asset' portfolio.
Quarterly production beats in Permian and Guyana; announcements of new technology deployments (e.g., lightweight proppant) improving well economics; updates showing structural cost savings exceeding the $15.1B achieved since 2019; increases to the 5.5 MBOED by 2030 production target.
Misses on production targets in Permian or Guyana; significant project delays or cost overruns; announcements of major capital allocation to lower-return, non-advantaged assets; failure to meet cost-saving targets; a sustained drop in crude prices below the company's breakeven levels.
Short-term oil and gas price fluctuations (the strategy is designed to win through cycles); minor exploration results outside of core advantaged assets; competitor announcements on renewable energy projects (Exxon's current thesis is oil & gas optimization).
Repricing Catalyst
Successfully executing its 2030 corporate plan by increasing production to 5.5 MBOED while shifting the portfolio mix to ~65% from high-margin, low-cost 'advantaged assets' in the Permian and Guyana. This is expected to add over $14 billion in Upstream earnings growth potential by 2030 (vs. 2024), demonstrating a structural advantage over peers that warrants a premium valuation.
Energy Products (Refining & Fuels)
$217760000.0B TTM (68.7% of Total) · 3.4% MarginWhat It Is
Gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil, and other refined petroleum products.
Who Pays & How
Wholesale distributors, industrial buyers, and consumers (via Exxon & Mobil branded stations) pay for finished fuels. They choose Exxon for its reliable supply chain and product quality standards.
Competition
Upstream (Oil & Gas Production)
$55660000.0B TTM (17.6% of Total) · 38.4% MarginWhat It Is
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs).
Who Pays & How
Global oil refineries, utilities, and commodity traders pay for raw energy feedstocks. They buy from Exxon because of its ability to deliver massive, reliable volumes from low-cost, long-life assets.
Competition
Chemical & Specialty Products
$36160000.0B TTM (11.4% of Total) · 10.5% MarginWhat It Is
Olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and various other petrochemicals and high-value lubricants (e.g., Mobil 1).
Who Pays & How
Industrial and manufacturing companies pay for chemical feedstocks used to create plastics and thousands of other consumer and industrial goods.
Competition
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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