Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
Market Price (6/30/2026): $258.5 | Market Cap: $76.3 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
Market Price (6/30/2026): $258.5Market Cap: $76.3 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 7.5% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 22 Bil Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 9.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.7 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.0%, Dist 3Y High is -3.0% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.9% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54% Key risksMPC key risks include [1] significant legal liabilities from climate change litigation across various states and [2] short-term profitability impacts from significant planned maintenance costs for its facilities. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 7.5% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 22 Bil |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 9.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -3.0%, Dist 3Y High is -3.0% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.7%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.9% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 54% |
| Key risksMPC key risks include [1] significant legal liabilities from climate change litigation across various states and [2] short-term profitability impacts from significant planned maintenance costs for its facilities. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock has gained about 30% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Marathon Petroleum reported significantly stronger-than-expected earnings for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on March 31, 2026. The company announced adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.65, substantially surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.72 and the analyst consensus estimate of $1.09. This represented a significant improvement from an adjusted loss of $0.24 per share in the prior-year quarter. Revenue also beat expectations, reaching $34.6 billion against a consensus of $30.3 billion.
2. The company's Refining & Marketing segment demonstrated robust performance, driven by surging refining margins. Adjusted EBITDA for this segment increased approximately 181.6% from the prior year to $1.4 billion in fiscal Q1 2026. The Refining & Marketing (R&M) margin per barrel was $17.74, marking a 32.6% increase over fiscal Q1 2025. This favorable environment was largely due to elevated crack spreads, particularly in the Gulf Coast and West Coast regions, influenced by geopolitical tensions which led to supply disruptions and a structural supply gap in global fuel markets.
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Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock has gained about 30% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Marathon Petroleum reported significantly stronger-than-expected earnings for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended on March 31, 2026. The company announced adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.65, substantially surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.72 and the analyst consensus estimate of $1.09. This represented a significant improvement from an adjusted loss of $0.24 per share in the prior-year quarter. Revenue also beat expectations, reaching $34.6 billion against a consensus of $30.3 billion.
2. The company's Refining & Marketing segment demonstrated robust performance, driven by surging refining margins. Adjusted EBITDA for this segment increased approximately 181.6% from the prior year to $1.4 billion in fiscal Q1 2026. The Refining & Marketing (R&M) margin per barrel was $17.74, marking a 32.6% increase over fiscal Q1 2025. This favorable environment was largely due to elevated crack spreads, particularly in the Gulf Coast and West Coast regions, influenced by geopolitical tensions which led to supply disruptions and a structural supply gap in global fuel markets.
3. Marathon Petroleum's commitment to shareholder returns was reinforced with a significant increase in its share repurchase authorization. The company announced an incremental $5 billion share repurchase authorization, bringing the total available under its share repurchase programs to $8.6 billion as of March 31, 2026. In fiscal Q1 2026, MPC returned over $1.0 billion to shareholders, including $750 million in share repurchases.
4. Operational excellence and strategic investments contributed to improved efficiency and higher-value product output. In fiscal Q1 2026, Marathon Petroleum achieved an 89% crude capacity utilization rate and reported its lowest unplanned downtime in a decade. The company also commissioned the Garyville jet flexibility project, enhancing its ability to convert existing products into higher-value jet fuel, and completed approximately 40% of its planned turnaround activity for the year.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.3% change in MPC stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 197.46 | 259.22 | 31.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 132,699 | 135,382 | 2.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.0% | 3.4% | 12.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.6 | 16.5 | 13.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 299 | 295 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MPC | 31.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | -27.2% |
| Sector (XLE) | -3.6% | 80.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 35.0% change in MPC stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 58.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 192.03 | 259.22 | 35.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 133,262 | 135,382 | 1.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.2% | 3.4% | 58.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.2 | 16.5 | -18.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 303 | 295 | 2.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 35.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MPC | 35.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.0% | -13.8% |
| Sector (XLE) | 20.3% | 73.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 64.4% change in MPC stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 93.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 157.65 | 259.22 | 64.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 137,675 | 135,382 | -1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.8% | 3.4% | 93.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.3 | 16.5 | -18.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 313 | 295 | 6.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 64.4% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MPC | 64.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 27.2% | -0.3% |
| Sector (XLE) | 35.7% | 72.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 162.8% change in MPC stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 517.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 98.65 | 259.22 | 162.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 174,259 | 135,382 | -22.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.4% | 3.4% | -63.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 2.7 | 16.5 | 517.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 444 | 295 | 50.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 162.8% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| MPC | 162.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.3% | 31.4% |
| Sector (XLE) | 54.3% | 74.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MPC Return | 61% | 87% | 30% | -4% | 19% | 58% | 606% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 98% | 12% | -22% | 34% | 54% | 361% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 7% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MPC Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 75% | 52% | 33% | 65% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MPC Max Drawdown | -21% | -30% | -23% | -39% | -25% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -33% | -29% | -45% | -37% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VLO, PSX, PBF, DINO, DK. See MPC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MPC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -17.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -71.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 247.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 336 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1136 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -44.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 462 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -30.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 212 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Marathon Petroleum's stock fell -24.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 32.1% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | MPC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.3% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -71.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 247.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 336 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.9% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1136 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -44.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 462 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -30.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 44.1% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 212 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -32.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.1% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 124 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Marathon Petroleum's stock fell -24.3% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 32.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is an integrated downstream energy company primarily focused on operations within the United States. The company's business is divided into two main segments: Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. This structure allows MPC to manage the process from crude oil input to the distribution of finished energy products.
The Refining & Marketing segment is responsible for refining crude oil and other feedstocks at its U.S. refineries located in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions. Its primary products include various transportation fuels such as gasoline, heavy fuel oil, and asphalt, along with other chemicals like aromatics, propane, and sulfur. MPC sells these refined products to a broad customer base, including wholesale marketing customers both domestically and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate thousands of Marathon-branded and ARCO-branded fuel outlets across the U.S. and Mexico.
Complementing its refining operations, the Midstream segment provides crucial logistics and infrastructure services. This segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products utilizing an extensive network of pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges. Furthermore, it gathers, processes, and transports natural gas, and handles the gathering, transportation, fractionation, storage, and marketing of natural gas liquids, playing a vital role in moving various energy commodities throughout the supply chain.
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Marathon Petroleum is essentially the refining, pipeline, and gas station division of an oil giant like ExxonMobil or Shell.
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Major Products
- Transportation Fuels: Reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines for vehicles.
- Heavy Fuel Oil: A residual fuel used in industrial applications and marine vessels.
- Asphalt: Primarily used in road construction and paving.
- Aromatics: Hydrocarbons used as chemical feedstocks for various industrial products.
- Propane: A hydrocarbon gas used as fuel for heating, cooking, and vehicles.
- Propylene: A petrochemical feedstock used for plastics and chemicals.
- Sulfur: An industrial byproduct with various applications.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): Hydrocarbons like ethane, propane, butane, and natural gasoline, extracted from natural gas.
Major Services
- Crude Oil and Refined Products Logistics: Transporting, storing, distributing, and marketing crude oil and refined products through an extensive infrastructure.
- Natural Gas Midstream Services: Gathering, processing, and transporting natural gas.
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) Midstream Services: Gathering, transporting, fractionating, storing, and marketing natural gas liquids.
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Marathon Petroleum (MPC) sells primarily to other companies rather than directly to individual consumers. Based on the provided background, the major categories of its business customers include:
- Wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally.
- Buyers on the spot market.
- Independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets.
- Direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand, supplied through long-term fuel supply contracts.
The provided background information does not specify the names of individual public companies that are major customers within these categories.
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Maryann Mannen, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer
Maryann Mannen serves as the Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Marathon Petroleum Corporation. She was appointed Chairman in 2026, named President in January 2024, and assumed her current role as CEO in August 2024. Prior to her current position, Ms. Mannen served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Marathon Petroleum Corporation since 2021.
John J. Quaid, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
John J. Quaid is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Marathon Petroleum Corporation. He received $800,000 in base salary, $3.58 million in stock award, and $135,140 in other compensation, totaling $5.81 million in 2024. No information available regarding him founding or managing other companies, selling companies, or managing private equity-backed companies.
Michael J. Hennigan, Executive Chairman
Michael J. Hennigan is the Executive Chairman of Marathon Petroleum Corporation, a position he transitioned to in August 2024, after serving as Chief Executive Officer of MPC and Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of MPLX GP LLC. Before joining MPLX GP LLC in 2017, Mr. Hennigan was President, Crude, NGL and Refined Products of the general partner of Energy Transfer Partners L.P., and prior to that, he was President and Chief Executive Officer of Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. He began his career with Sunoco, Inc. in 1981. Mr. Hennigan has been the head of nine different companies, including ETC Sunoco Holdings LLC and Sunoco Partners LLC.
Timothy J. Aydt, Executive Vice President, Refining
Timothy J. Aydt serves as the Executive Vice President, Refining at Marathon Petroleum Corporation, a role he was appointed to in October 2022. He joined Marathon in 1985 as a pipeline engineer and has held various positions of increasing responsibility across marketing and transportation engineering, pipeline, and retail divisions. His previous roles include Executive Vice President & Chief Commercial Officer of MPLX, Vice President Business Development, and President of Marathon Pipe Line LLC. Mr. Aydt also served as project director for the $2.2 billion Detroit Heavy Oil Upgrade Project.
Rick D. Hessling, Chief Commercial Officer
Rick D. Hessling is the Chief Commercial Officer of Marathon Petroleum Corporation and also serves as Senior Vice President of MPLX GP LLC. He began his career with Marathon in 1990 and has held a variety of positions within the Marketing segment, including acquisition specialist, jobber marketing representative, sales manager, crude oil and natural gas supply and trading manager, and senior vice president, Global Feedstocks.
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The key risks to Marathon Petroleum (MPC) are primarily associated with the energy transition, the inherent volatility of refining margins, and operational disruptions.
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Energy Transition and Regulatory Pressure: Marathon Petroleum faces a significant long-term structural threat from the global energy transition, specifically the rise of electric vehicles and alternative fuels, which is expected to reduce demand for liquid transportation fuels like gasoline and diesel post-2030. This trend is exacerbated by increasingly stringent environmental regulations and policies, such as mandates from the California Air Resources Board (CARB), aimed at reducing vehicle emissions. Compliance with these regulations can lead to substantial financial obligations and potentially force the closure of less-efficient assets, particularly on the West Coast. Furthermore, the company has a history of environmental violations, which contributes to reputational risk and ongoing regulatory scrutiny.
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Commodity Price Volatility and Refining Margin Compression: As a "margin player" in the refining industry, Marathon Petroleum's profitability is highly sensitive to the volatile fluctuations between crude oil prices (feedstock) and refined product prices (crack spreads). Rapid increases in crude oil prices, without a corresponding increase in refined product prices, can compress refining margins, leading to a collapse in profitability and reduced cash flows. The company's financial performance is directly impacted by these market risks and the inability to secure attractive contract renewal terms.
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Operational Risks, Environmental Incidents, and Natural Disasters: Marathon Petroleum's extensive network of refineries, pipelines, and terminals is vulnerable to business interruptions caused by natural disasters (e.g., severe weather events), accidents (e.g., chemical leaks, fires, explosions), and third-party actions. Such incidents can result in significant damage to infrastructure, operational downtime, financial losses, and costly remediation efforts. Additionally, these events can lead to severe environmental consequences, regulatory penalties, and negative impacts on public perception and community relations.
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The clear emerging threat for Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is the accelerating global shift towards the electrification of transportation. As electric vehicles (EVs) gain market share and governments increasingly mandate the phase-out of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, the long-term demand for gasoline and diesel, which are core refined products of MPC's Refining & Marketing segment, will diminish. This trend directly impacts the fundamental business model of converting crude oil into transportation fuels and subsequently affects the volume of products transported and stored by its Midstream segment.
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Addressable Markets for Marathon Petroleum's Main Products and Services
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) operates in key segments of the downstream energy market, primarily across the United States. Its main products and services include transportation fuels, asphalt, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and natural gas processing and distribution. The addressable market sizes for these offerings are detailed below, with regions clarified where specified:
Refining & Marketing Segment
- Gasoline (Transportation Fuels): The global gasoline market size was estimated at USD 129.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 145.7 billion by 2033, with North America accounting for the largest share in 2024. The U.S. gasoline and petroleum wholesaling market was valued at USD 808.1 billion in 2025. U.S. motor gasoline consumption averaged 8.91 million barrels per day in 2025 and is projected to average 8.84 million barrels per day in 2026.
- Diesel Fuel (Transportation Fuels): The U.S. diesel fuel market is estimated to reach USD 60 billion by 2031. Globally, the diesel fuel market size was estimated at USD 1,106.15 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach approximately USD 1,381.63 billion by 2033. U.S. diesel consumption averaged approximately 3.8 million barrels per day in 2023.
- Asphalt: The market size for asphalt manufacturing in the U.S. was USD 36.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to be USD 36.7 billion in 2025.
Midstream Segment
- Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): The Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) market in North America is estimated to grow from USD 7.08 billion in 2024 to USD 11.53 billion by 2033. The United States held 92.8% of the North American NGL market share in 2024. The global natural gas liquids market size was estimated at USD 23.38 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 32.18 billion by 2030.
- Natural Gas Processing and Distribution: The global gas processing market size was accounted for at USD 243.62 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 457.28 billion by 2035. North America held the largest revenue share in the global gas processing market in 2023. The U.S. natural gas distribution market was valued at USD 170.0 billion in 2024, with projections to reach USD 186.0 billion by 2032.
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Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) is strategically positioning itself for future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives:
- Midstream Segment Expansion: Marathon Petroleum anticipates significant revenue growth from its Midstream segment, primarily through its subsidiary MPLX. The company is allocating substantial capital, with approximately $2.0 billion projected for 2025 and $2.4 billion for 2026, largely focused on expanding its natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) businesses. These investments include increasing the capacity of the BANGL NGL pipeline and advancing Permian to Gulf Coast natural gas pipelines, with projects expected to come online by the second half of 2026. MPLX is targeting a distribution growth rate of 12.5% over the next two years, which is expected to translate into over $3.5 billion in annual cash distributions to MPC, indirectly bolstering its financial capacity for further growth.
- Refinery Optimization and High-Return Projects: MPC is investing in high-return projects at its refineries to enhance operational efficiency, reliability, and export capacity. These strategic investments aim to optimize refinery operations and increase production. Examples include a distillate hydrotreater at the Galveston Bay refinery, projected to yield over 20% returns by 2027, and projects focused on energy efficiency at the Los Angeles refinery and the Robinson Product Flexibility Project, both targeting returns of 20% to 25%. The company also plans to deploy digital twins and Advanced Process Control (APC) to achieve 1-3% incremental utilization gains and implement predictive maintenance programs to reduce unplanned downtime.
- Expansion in Renewable Fuels Production: Marathon Petroleum is actively expanding its footprint in renewable fuels. The company is converting existing facilities, such as the Martinez and Dickinson refineries, to increase renewable diesel production, aiming for a capacity nearing 914 million gallons per year. These expansions position MPC as a significant U.S. producer of renewable fuels and allow it to capitalize on opportunities related to Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) and Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, as well as potential demand growth for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) through 2025-2030.
- Export Market Expansion and Diversification: MPC is optimizing its export platform by leveraging its high-utilization, high-complexity refineries, particularly those on the Gulf and West Coasts. This strategy supports growing diesel and gasoline exports to international markets including Latin America, Mexico, Central America, the Caribbean, and Europe, thereby diversifying its customer base and increasing revenue streams.
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Share Repurchases
- Marathon Petroleum returned $4.5 billion to shareholders in 2025 through share repurchases and dividends.
- As of December 31, 2025, Marathon Petroleum had $4.4 billion available under its share repurchase authorizations.
- In April 2024, the board approved an incremental $5 billion share repurchase authorization, bringing the total available to approximately $8.8 billion at that time.
Share Issuance
- Marathon Petroleum's shares outstanding were 0.306 billion in 2025, reflecting a 10.26% decline from 2024 due to repurchases.
- Shares outstanding were 0.341 billion in 2024, a 16.63% decline from 2023.
- Shares outstanding were 0.409 billion in 2023, representing a 20.74% decline from 2022.
Inbound Investments
- Institutional investors collectively own approximately 76.77% of Marathon Petroleum's stock.
- Vanguard Group Inc. increased its stake, owning 38,866,104 shares worth $6.456 billion after acquiring an additional 3,924,713 shares in a recent quarter (likely Q2 2025 or late 2024).
- Norges Bank acquired a new position in Marathon Petroleum during Q2 for approximately $527.2 million.
Outbound Investments
- In March 2023, Marathon Petroleum acquired a 49.9% interest in LF Bioenergy, an emerging producer of renewable natural gas (RNG), for $50 million, with potential for an additional $50 million based on earn-out targets.
- Marathon Petroleum divested its partial interest in ethanol production facilities for $425 million in the second quarter of 2025.
- In 2025, the company made strategic acquisitions including Northwind Midstream for $2.4 billion and the BANGL Acquisition for $703 million, to enhance its Midstream segment.
Capital Expenditures
- Marathon Petroleum's 2026 standalone capital spending outlook (excluding MPLX) is $1.5 billion, with about 65% allocated to value-enhancing projects and 35% to sustaining capital.
- Planned capital investment in refining for 2026 is $700 million, a nearly 20% reduction year-over-year, focusing on projects like Garyville feedstock optimization and a Galveston Bay distillate hydrotreater.
- Actual standalone capital expenditures for Marathon Petroleum in 2025 were $1.58 billion, while its midstream segment, MPLX, had capital expenditures of $2.95 billion.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 122.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 41.4 |
| Rev LTM | 77,490 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,792 |
| FCF LTM | 894 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,649 |
| CFO LTM | 2,186 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,953 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -10.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 157.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -5.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 5.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 41.4 |
| P/S | 0.5 |
| P/Op Inc | 11.8 |
| P/EBIT | 8.9 |
| P/E | 14.4 |
| P/CFO | 10.4 |
| Total Yield | 8.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 61.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 90.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 119.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 53.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 66.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 60.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refining & Marketing | 124,312 | 131,763 | 141,974 | 172,205 | 115,494 |
| Midstream | 11,534 | 10,994 | 10,508 | 10,590 | 9,619 |
| Renewable Diesel | 2,830 | 2,104 | 1,664 | ||
| Other revenue | 5 | 0 | |||
| Intersegment revenues | -5,982 | -5,997 | -5,767 | -5,342 | -5,130 |
| Total | 132,699 | 138,864 | 148,379 | 177,453 | 119,983 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midstream | 6,750 | 6,171 | 5,772 | 5,410 | 3,708 |
| Refining & Marketing | 6,138 | 13,551 | 19,261 | 3,518 | -5,189 |
| Transaction-related costs | -33 | -8 | |||
| Renewable Diesel | -110 | ||||
| Gain on sale of assets | -897 | 198 | 1,058 | ||
| Net interest and other financial costs | -1,276 | ||||
| Refining & Renewable Diesel planned turnaround costs | -1,553 | -1,201 | -1,122 | -582 | |
| Depreciation and amortization | -3,251 | -3,307 | -3,215 | -3,364 | |
| Corporate | -737 | -698 | -587 | -800 | |
| Garyville incident response costs | -16 | 0 | |||
| Idling facility expenses | 0 | 0 | -12 | 0 | |
| Impairments | 0 | 0 | -13 | -9,741 | |
| Last In First Out Inventory Charge | -145 | 148 | |||
| Litigation | 0 | 27 | 84 | ||
| Renewable volume obligation requirements | 0 | 238 | |||
| Storm impacts | 0 | 0 | -70 | ||
| Equity method investment restructuring gains | 0 | ||||
| Net gain on disposal of assets | 66 | ||||
| Restructuring expenses | -367 | ||||
| Total | 5,768 | 14,514 | 21,469 | 4,300 | -12,247 |
| $ Mil | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midstream | 19,937 | 18,516 | 17,462 | 2,407 | 1,947 |
| Refining & Marketing | 17,537 | 17,601 | 17,379 | 19,751 | 19,573 |
| Corporate and Other | 6,010 | 2,870 | 2,925 | 2,971 | 4,801 |
| Retail | 5,563 | 5,426 | 5,349 | 5,296 | 2,064 |
| Total | 49,047 | 44,413 | 43,115 | 30,425 | 28,385 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $259.22 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 76.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/01/2011 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -3.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $248.02 | $208.01 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 4.5% | 24.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.8% | 32.2% |
| Downside Capture | -86.62 | -42.04 |
| Upside Capture | -20.76 | 21.80 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -29.9% | -0.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.63 | -1.88 | -0.97 | -0.48 | -0.00 | 0.68 |
| Up Beta | -2.54 | -2.53 | -1.83 | -0.92 | -0.31 | 0.82 |
| Down Beta | -1.96 | -1.62 | -0.35 | 0.19 | 0.69 | 1.12 |
| Up Capture | -65% | -53% | -11% | -11% | 12% | 20% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 21 | 33 | 63 | 141 | 417 |
| Down Capture | -227% | -347% | -194% | -136% | -80% | 42% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 29 | 60 | 108 | 332 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC | 58.1% | 32.1% | 1.45 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 28.1% | 20.7% | 1.09 | 72.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.2% | 12.5% | 1.32 | 0.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 27.8% | 0.65 | 3.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 21.3% | 18.6% | 0.90 | 53.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.6% | 13.6% | 0.82 | 3.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.0% | 42.6% | -1.25 | 8.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC | 36.8% | 33.0% | 1.00 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 18.8% | 25.9% | 0.65 | 78.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 37.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 6.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 19.5% | 0.26 | 49.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.9% | 18.8% | 0.05 | 26.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.6% | 53.8% | 0.44 | 13.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with MPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC | 26.5% | 40.2% | 0.72 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLE) | 9.1% | 29.6% | 0.35 | 77.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 52.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.5% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 2.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.7% | 18.0% | 0.24 | 45.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 43.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 55.0% | 66.4% | 0.95 | 12.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 3.2% | -0.0% | 6.2% |
| 2/3/2026 | 6.0% | 15.5% | 25.4% |
| 11/4/2025 | -6.1% | 0.3% | -2.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.6% | -5.6% | 7.2% |
| 5/6/2025 | 0.9% | 10.3% | 10.1% |
| 2/4/2025 | 6.7% | 4.6% | -7.6% |
| 11/5/2024 | 3.2% | 7.7% | 4.4% |
| 8/6/2024 | 5.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 18 | 17 | 18 |
| # Negative | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -5.6% | -8.1% |
| Max Positive | 6.7% | 15.5% | 35.7% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -11.2% | -13.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/5/2026 | 3.2% | -0.0% | 6.2% |
| 2/3/2026 | 6.0% | 15.5% | 25.4% |
| 11/4/2025 | -6.1% | 0.3% | -2.4% |
| 8/5/2025 | 0.6% | -5.6% | 7.2% |
| 5/6/2025 | 0.9% | 10.3% | 10.1% |
| 2/4/2025 | 6.7% | 4.6% | -7.6% |
| 11/5/2024 | 3.2% | 7.7% | 4.4% |
| 8/6/2024 | 5.5% | 8.8% | 6.5% |
| 4/30/2024 | -9.4% | -8.8% | -13.6% |
| 1/30/2024 | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.9% |
| 10/31/2023 | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| 8/1/2023 | 1.4% | 5.2% | 8.3% |
| 5/2/2023 | -4.5% | -11.2% | -13.7% |
| 1/31/2023 | -0.5% | -9.9% | 0.6% |
| 11/1/2022 | 4.9% | 5.2% | 7.9% |
| 8/2/2022 | 3.7% | 0.1% | 13.1% |
| 5/3/2022 | 4.0% | 2.0% | 17.3% |
| 2/2/2022 | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.3% |
| 11/2/2021 | -3.9% | -2.4% | -8.6% |
| 8/4/2021 | -2.8% | 4.5% | 3.4% |
| 5/4/2021 | 0.2% | 4.6% | 11.2% |
| 2/2/2021 | 3.9% | 13.9% | 30.5% |
| 11/2/2020 | 6.1% | 7.1% | 35.7% |
| 8/3/2020 | 1.0% | -4.0% | -5.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 18 | 17 | 18 |
| # Negative | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.8% | 5.2% | 7.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -5.6% | -8.1% |
| Max Positive | 6.7% | 15.5% | 35.7% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -11.2% | -13.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/28/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/04/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/31/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Refining operating costs per barrel | 5.65 | -3.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.85 for Q1 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 Distribution costs | 1.62 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.62 Bil for Q1 2026 | |||
| Q2 2026 Refining planned turnaround costs | 300.00 Mil | -35.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 465.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 1.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 MPLX organic growth capital plan | 2.4E11% | -11.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.7E11% for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Refining operating costs per barrel | 5.85 | 0.9% | 5.0% | Raised | Guidance: 5.8 for Q4 2025 | ||
| Q1 2026 Distribution costs | 1.62 Bil | 3.2% | Raised | Guidance: 1.57 Bil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Refining planned turnaround costs | 465.00 Mil | 10.7% | Raised | Guidance: 420.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Depreciation and amortization | 385.00 Mil | -3.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 400.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| Q1 2026 Total Refinery throughputs | 2.74 Mil | -5.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.90 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 1.50 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 MPLX Capital Expenditures | 2.70 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/8/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henschen, Michael A II | Ex VP, Refining | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 268.82 | 6,336 | 1,703,272 | 4,543,133 | Form |
| 2 | Hessling, Ricky D | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 250.00 | 1,000 | 250,000 | 1,631,250 | Form |
| 3 | Hessling, Ricky D | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 228.18 | 1,626 | 371,021 | 1,717,054 | Form |
| 4 | Hessling, Ricky D | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 229.08 | 1,037 | 237,554 | 2,096,294 | Form |
| 5 | Hessling, Ricky D | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 224.78 | 1,810 | 406,847 | 2,290,034 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Henschen, Michael A II | Ex VP, Refining | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 268.82 | 6,336 | 1,703,272 | 4,543,133 | Form |
| 2 | Hessling, Ricky D | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 250.00 | 1,000 | 250,000 | 1,631,250 | Form |
| 3 | Hessling, Ricky D | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 228.18 | 1,626 | 371,021 | 1,717,054 | Form |
| 4 | Hessling, Ricky D | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 229.08 | 1,037 | 237,554 | 2,096,294 | Form |
| 5 | Hessling, Ricky D | Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 224.78 | 1,810 | 406,847 | 2,290,034 | Form |
| 6 | Henschen, Michael A II | Ex VP, Refining | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 202.32 | 5,289 | 1,070,070 | 3,434,180 | Form |
| 7 | Benson, Molly R | Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 163.00 | 10,879 | 1,773,277 | 4,678,091 | Form |
| 8 | Rucker, Kim KW | Direct | Sell | 7072025 | 175.00 | 7,392 | 1,293,600 | 3,315,247 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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