Tearsheet

Marathon Petroleum (MPC)

Market Price (12/18/2025): $174.43 | Market Cap: $52.9 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Marathon Petroleum (MPC)

Market Price (12/18/2025): $174.43
Market Cap: $52.9 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow

0	Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 7.3%	Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -0.9%	Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 54%
1	Attractive cash flow generation CFO LTM is 7.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.3 Bil		Weak revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8%
2	Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 35%		Key risks MPC key risks include [1] significant legal liabilities from climate change litigation across various states and [2] short-term profitability impacts from significant planned maintenance costs for its facilities.
3	Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Show more.

0	Attractive yield Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.9%, FCF Yield is 7.3%
1	Attractive cash flow generation CFO LTM is 7.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 4.3 Bil
2	Low stock price volatility Vol 12M is 35%
3	Megatrend and thematic drivers Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Show more.
4	Weak multi-year price returns 2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -0.9%
5	Debt is significant Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 54%
6	Weak revenue growth Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.3%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.8%
7	Key risks MPC key risks include [1] significant legal liabilities from climate change litigation across various states and [2] short-term profitability impacts from significant planned maintenance costs for its facilities.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

	12/18/25	2024	2023	2022	2021
Share Price CYE	$174.43	$136.47	$142.24	$109.03	$58.42
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)	52.9	43.5	53.2	50.6	35.1
Total Debt ($ Bil)	34.2	28.8	28.5	27.9	26.9
Total Cash ($ Bil)	2.7	3.2	10.2	11.8	10.8
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)	84.4	72.3	81.7	78.5	62.0
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	0.44	0.34	0.41	0.34	0.34
P/EBIT TTM	8.47	6.53	3.96	2.75	9.93
P/FCF TTM	13.65	7.73	4.94	4.27	14.01
P/E TTM	20.25	13.77	6.24	4.11	4.17
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	1.34	1.50	1.51	1.24	1.28
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	7.59	6.73	5.34	4.04	4.74
P/FCF TTM (Sector)	6.75	6.90	7.02	4.87	5.24
P/E TTM (Sector)	10.97	10.14	8.30	5.44	5.10

	12/18/25	2024	2023
Share Price CYE	$174.43	$136.47	$142.24
Market Cap CYE ($ Bil)	52.9	43.5	53.2
Total Debt ($ Bil)	34.2	28.8	28.5
Total Cash ($ Bil)	2.7	3.2	10.2
Enterprise Value ($ Bil)	84.4	72.3	81.7
Valuation Ratios
P/S TTM	0.44	0.34	0.41
P/EBIT TTM	8.47	6.53	3.96
P/FCF TTM	13.65	7.73	4.94
P/E TTM	20.25	13.77	6.24
Sector Ratios
P/S TTM (Sector)	1.34	1.50	1.51
P/EBIT TTM (Sector)	7.59	6.73	5.34
P/FCF TTM (Sector)	6.75	6.90	7.02
P/E TTM (Sector)	10.97	10.14	8.30

	MPC	S&P 500
REVENUE GROWTH	VERY POOR
Rev LTM ($ Bil)	133.3
Rev Chg Q	-0.8%	7.3%
Rev Chg LTM	-6.1%	6.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-8.3%	5.5%
PROFITABILITY	VERY POOR
Op Inc LTM ($ Bil)	4.7
CFO LTM ($ Bil)	7.4
Net Inc LTM ($ Bil)	2.9
Op Mgn LTM	3.6%	18.8%
CFO/Rev LTM	5.5%	20.4%
Net Inc Mgn	2.2%	13.1%
VALUATION	LOW
P/S	0.4	3.2
P/CFO	7.9	16.0
P/FCF	13.7	20.7
P/E	20.2	23.5
STABILITY	POOR
Debt/Equity	0.59	0.21
Cash/Assets	0.03	0.07

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Metric	Value	Date	Source
Crude Capacity Utilization	95%	9302025	Link
Total Refinery Throughput	3.0 million barrels per day	9302025	Link
Refining & Marketing Margin per Barrel	$17.60	9302025	Link
Refining Operating Costs per Barrel	$5.59	9302025	Link
Refined Product Sales Volume	3,783 mbpd	9302025	Link
Crude Oil Refining Capacity	2,963 mbpcd	9302025	Link
Renewable Diesel Utilization	86%	9302025	Link
Capture Rate	96%	9302025	Link

Upcoming
2/03/2026	Earnings Release	Rev: $31 Bil (E) EPS: $3.98 (E)

MPC Stock

Return (1M):

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points highlighting factors that influenced Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock movement during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025: 1. Marathon Petroleum reported weaker-than-expected adjusted earnings for the third quarter of 2025 on November 4, 2025. This earnings miss led to a significant negative market reaction, with pre-market trading indicating a sharp decline of 7.27% in the stock price. The adjusted earnings per share of $3.01 fell short of the consensus estimate of $3.18, overshadowing a substantial increase in revenue. 2. Elevated maintenance and turnaround costs weighed on third-quarter 2025 results. The Q3 refining turnaround costs totaled approximately $400 million, an increase from $287 million in the prior-year period, primarily due to higher planned maintenance activity. The company also projected fourth-quarter 2025 turnaround expenses to be around $420 million. 3. The company's Renewable Diesel operations continued to report adjusted EBITDA losses in the third quarter of 2025. While the $56 million loss was an improvement from the $61 million loss in the same period last year, a softer margin environment for renewable diesel continued to impact overall results. 4. MPC's shares experienced declines amidst broader market weakness and sector rotation in December 2025. For instance, on December 16, 2025, MPC shares fell by 3.05% as the wider market, including the Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500, also showed signs of weakness. This decline was partly attributed to a shift in investor focus away from MPC and the Oils-Energy sector. 5. Analysts noted concerns regarding Marathon Petroleum's projected revenue growth and margin pressure. While the company showed historical earnings growth, its net profit margins were expected to decrease from 3.2% last year to 2.2%, with a modest revenue growth forecast of 0.04% per year. This outlook contributed to investor caution despite some attractive valuation metrics.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -5.0% change in MPC stock from 9/17/2025 to 12/17/2025 was primarily driven by a -30.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

	9172025	12172025	Change
Stock Price ($)	183.75	174.50	-5.04%
Change Contribution By	LTM	LTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	133560.00	133262.00	-0.22%
Net Income Margin (%)	1.60%	2.16%	35.34%
P/E Multiple	26.42	18.34	-30.59%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	307.00	303.00	1.30%
Cumulative Contribution			-5.05%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/17/2025 to 12/17/2025

	Return	Correlation
MPC	-5.0%
Market (SPY)	1.9%	34.4%
Sector (XLE)	0.4%	69.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 5.3% change in MPC stock from 6/18/2025 to 12/17/2025 was primarily driven by a 22.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).

	6182025	12172025	Change
Stock Price ($)	165.66	174.50	5.34%
Change Contribution By	LTM	LTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	137675.00	133262.00	-3.21%
Net Income Margin (%)	1.77%	2.16%	22.37%
P/E Multiple	21.30	18.34	-13.91%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	313.00	303.00	3.19%
Cumulative Contribution			5.23%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/18/2025 to 12/17/2025

	Return	Correlation
MPC	5.3%
Market (SPY)	12.7%	28.8%
Sector (XLE)	3.4%	65.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 29.3% change in MPC stock from 12/17/2024 to 12/17/2025 was primarily driven by a 85.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

	12172024	12172025	Change
Stock Price ($)	134.99	174.50	29.27%
Change Contribution By	LTM	LTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	141982.00	133262.00	-6.14%
Net Income Margin (%)	3.19%	2.16%	-32.12%
P/E Multiple	9.87	18.34	85.73%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	331.00	303.00	8.46%
Cumulative Contribution			28.34%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/17/2024 to 12/17/2025

	Return	Correlation
MPC	29.3%
Market (SPY)	12.1%	58.0%
Sector (XLE)	6.8%	79.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 69.7% change in MPC stock from 12/18/2022 to 12/17/2025 was primarily driven by a 334.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.

	12182022	12172025	Change
Stock Price ($)	102.81	174.50	69.73%
Change Contribution By	LTM	LTM
Total Revenues ($ Mil)	172976.00	133262.00	-22.96%
Net Income Margin (%)	6.92%	2.16%	-68.73%
P/E Multiple	4.22	18.34	334.85%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)	491.00	303.00	38.29%
Cumulative Contribution			44.85%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/18/2023 to 12/17/2025

	Return	Correlation
MPC	19.9%
Market (SPY)	44.9%	44.6%
Sector (XLE)	12.6%	74.2%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	Total [1]
Returns
MPC Return	-27%	61%	87%	30%	-4%	30%	254%
Peers Return	-49%	31%	98%	12%	-22%	37%	58%
S&P 500 Return	16%	27%	-19%	24%	23%	14%	108%
Monthly Win Rates [3]
MPC Win Rate	58%	67%	75%	50%	50%	67%
Peers Win Rate	28%	53%	75%	52%	33%	65%
S&P 500 Win Rate	58%	75%	42%	67%	75%	73%
Max Drawdowns [4]
MPC Max Drawdown	-72%	-1%	0%	-9%	-9%	-15%
Peers Max Drawdown	-70%	-6%	-2%	-21%	-27%	-28%
S&P 500 Max Drawdown	-31%	-1%	-25%	-1%	-2%	-15%

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VLO, PSX, PBF, DINO, DK. See MPC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique Key	Event	MPC	S&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock	2022 Inflation Shock
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss	% Loss	-30.2%	-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	43.3%	34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	113 days	464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic	2020 Covid Pandemic
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss	% Loss	-73.2%	-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	272.5%	51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	435 days	148 days
2018 Correction	2018 Correction
2018 Correction% Loss	% Loss	-48.3%	-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven	% Gain to Breakeven	93.6%	24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to Breakeven	Time to Breakeven	968 days	120 days

Compare to PSX, VLO, XPRO, NFE, MPC

In The Past

Marathon Petroleum's stock fell -30.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -30.2% loss requires a 43.3% gain to breakeven.

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About Marathon Petroleum (MPC)

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

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Analogy 1: Think of Marathon Petroleum as the refining and fuel distribution arm of a major oil company such as ExxonMobil or Shell, but without the oil exploration and drilling.

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Gasoline: A primary motor fuel for vehicles.
Diesel Fuel: A heavy-duty motor fuel for vehicles and industrial equipment.
Jet Fuel: A specialized kerosene-based fuel for aircraft.
Asphalt: A petroleum-based product primarily used in road construction.
Propane: A liquefied petroleum gas used for heating, cooking, and vehicle fuel.
Pipeline Transportation (Crude Oil, Refined Products, Natural Gas): The movement of hydrocarbons through extensive pipeline networks.
Terminaling and Storage (Crude Oil, Refined Products, Natural Gas): Facilities for storing and distributing various petroleum and natural gas products.
Natural Gas Processing and NGL Fractionation: Services that separate raw natural gas into marketable components and further separate natural gas liquids.

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) primarily sells its refined petroleum products and services to other businesses on a wholesale basis.

Major Customer Companies and Categories:

Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. (TYO: 3382): Following the sale of Speedway to 7-Eleven, Inc. (a subsidiary of Seven & i Holdings) in 2021, Marathon Petroleum entered into a significant 15-year fuel supply agreement. Under this agreement, Marathon Petroleum remains a major supplier of fuel to the Speedway-branded convenience stores and other 7-Eleven locations in relevant markets, making Seven & i Holdings, through its 7-Eleven subsidiary, a prominent customer.
Independent Fuel Marketers and Distributors: These companies purchase refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from MPC at wholesale prices. They then distribute these products to their own networks of retail gas stations (which may operate under MPC's brands like Marathon or ARCO, or be unbranded) or directly to other commercial and industrial clients. Due to the highly fragmented nature of this market, specific major public companies within this category are not typically disclosed by MPC.
Large Commercial and Industrial End-Users: MPC also supplies fuel directly to various commercial and industrial businesses that require bulk quantities for their operations. This includes entities like trucking companies, airlines, construction firms, agricultural operations, and governmental agencies. Similar to independent marketers, this category comprises numerous individual entities rather than a few individually named major customers.

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MPLX (MPLX)

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Maryann T. Mannen President and Chief Executive Officer

Maryann T. Mannen was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Marathon Petroleum Corporation in August 2024, having served as President since January 2024. Before becoming President, she was the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Marathon Petroleum Corporation starting in 2021. Prior to joining MPC in 2021, Ms. Mannen accumulated 35 years of experience in the energy sector, holding progressively responsible positions at TechnipFMC and its predecessor companies, including executive vice president and chief financial officer.

John J. Quaid Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

John J. Quaid was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Marathon Petroleum Corporation in January 2024. He previously served as the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of MPLX GP LLC, a position he assumed in 2021. Mr. Quaid joined Marathon Petroleum Corporation in 2014 as vice president and controller. Before his time at MPC, he was the vice president of iron ore for U.S. Steel, overseeing all aspects of iron ore mining operations, and also served as vice president and treasurer at U.S. Steel.

Michael J. Hennigan Executive Chairman

Michael J. Hennigan has served as the Executive Chairman of Marathon Petroleum Corporation and MPLX GP LLC since August 2024. He was the Chief Executive Officer of Marathon Petroleum Corporation from March 2020 to July 2024 and previously held the titles of President and Chief Executive Officer from 2020 to 2023. Before joining MPLX GP LLC in 2017, Mr. Hennigan was president, crude, NGL and refined products of the general partner of Energy Transfer Partners L.P., and prior to that, he was president and chief executive officer of Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. He began his career with Sunoco, Inc. in 1981.

Raymond L. Brooks Executive Vice President, Refining

Raymond L. Brooks is the Executive Vice President, Refining of Marathon Petroleum Corporation, a role he has held since 2018. He also serves as a senior vice president of MPLX GP LLC. Mr. Brooks joined Marathon in 1979 as a chemical engineering co-op and progressed through various technical and management roles at several refineries. He earned a bachelor's degree in chemical engineering from the University of Cincinnati in 1983 and a master's degree in business administration from the University of New Orleans in 1988.

Michael A. Henschen Senior Vice President, Refining Operations

Michael A. Henschen serves as the Senior Vice President of Refining Operations, a position he assumed in 2025. He joined Marathon Petroleum Corporation in 1993. Prior to his career at Marathon, Mr. Henschen served five years in the U.S. Army as a non-commissioned officer, leading teams in Germany, Iraq, and Kuwait.

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Marathon Petroleum (MPC) are primarily associated with the volatile nature of the energy industry and increasing regulatory pressures:

Volatility in Refining Margins and Commodity Prices: Marathon Petroleum's financial performance is significantly impacted by substantial fluctuations in the market prices of crude oil and refined products. The refining and marketing segment has experienced notable declines in adjusted EBITDA due to compressed refining profit margins. This is further exacerbated by global overcapacity in the refining sector and normalizing market conditions, which exert pressure on margins.
Environmental Regulations and Climate Change Litigation: The company faces an increasing number and complexity of environmental laws and regulations, leading to substantial capital expenditures and operating costs for compliance. Marathon Petroleum is also exposed to climate change litigation across various states, which could result in significant legal liabilities. Legal and regulatory concerns are identified as a top risk category for the company.
Operational Disruptions and Maintenance Costs: The business can be adversely affected by prolonged interruptions or reductions in service of pipelines, railways, or other transportation methods for crude oil or refined products. Additionally, Marathon Petroleum regularly incurs significant planned maintenance costs (turnarounds) for its facilities, which can impact short-term profitability.

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The electrification of transportation, driven by the increasing adoption of electric vehicles, poses a clear emerging threat. This trend directly impacts the long-term demand for gasoline and diesel, which are Marathon Petroleum's primary refined products, thereby threatening the core revenue streams from their refining and retail fuel station operations.

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) operates in several significant addressable markets for its main products and services. The market sizes vary by product and region as follows:

Refined Petroleum Products (Overall):
- The North America refined petroleum products market was valued at approximately USD 531.22 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 629.28 billion by 2030.
- Globally, the refined petroleum products market was estimated at USD 1494.34 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 2042.6 billion by 2035.
- The U.S. Oil and Gas Refining Industry market size was USD 468.44 billion in 2025E and is expected to reach USD 600.80 billion by 2033.
Gasoline:
- The Gasoline & Petroleum Wholesaling market in the U.S. was USD 664.1 billion in 2024.
- The global gasoline market size was valued at USD 135.39 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 159.25 billion by 2033.
Diesel/Distillates:
- The global diesel fuel market size was valued at USD 246.27 billion in 2023 and is poised to grow from USD 255.51 billion in 2024 to USD 342.9 billion by 2032. Another source indicates the global diesel market was valued at USD 226.7 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 329.2 billion by 2034.
- The U.S. diesel fuel market is estimated to reach USD 60 billion by 2031.
Jet Fuel:
- The global jet fuel market is projected to grow from USD 297.87 billion in 2024 to USD 492.23 billion by 2035. Another source reported the global aviation fuel market size was valued at USD 391.23 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow from USD 431.70 billion in 2024 to USD 819.73 billion by 2032.
- The U.S. aviation fuel market was valued at USD 69.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 249.6 billion by 2035.
Petrochemicals:
- The global petrochemicals market size was valued at USD 623.83 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow from USD 649.16 billion in 2024 to USD 900.91 billion by 2032. Other sources estimate the global petrochemical market size at USD 659.22 billion in 2024, predicted to reach USD 1,193.26 billion by 2034, and USD 657.72 billion in 2024, expected to be worth around USD 1,182.78 billion by 2034.
- The U.S. petrochemical market size was USD 116.9 billion in 2024, which is expected to reach USD 210.7 billion by 2032. Another source states the United States petrochemicals market size was approximately USD 107.35 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach around USD 203.41 billion by 2034.
- The North America petrochemicals market size was valued at USD 155.88 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach around USD 280.32 billion by 2034. The North America Petrochemicals Market is projected to grow from USD 562.4 billion in 2025 to USD 791.2 billion by 2031.
Asphalt:
- The global asphalt market size reached USD 259.1 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 397.2 million by 2033. Another source states the global asphalt market size was valued at USD 4 billion in 2023 and is poised to grow from USD 4.2 billion in 2024 to USD 5.96 billion by 2032.
- The U.S. asphalt market size was USD 32.6 million in 2024, which is expected to reach USD 52.9 million by 2032.
Lubricants:
- The global lubricants market size was valued at USD 147.42 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 200.91 billion by 2033. Other sources indicate the global lubricants market size was valued at USD 145.02 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 215.19 billion by 2032, and USD 151.66 billion in 2024, expected to reach around USD 224.50 billion by 2034.
- The U.S. lubricants market size was valued at USD 41.71 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow to USD 51.03 billion by 2033. Another source states the United States lubricants market size reached USD 32.6 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 41.9 million by 2033. Yet another source estimates the U.S. Lubricant Market size at USD 39.54 billion in 2024, poised to grow to USD 52.06 billion by 2032.
Renewable Fuels (Ethanol & Biodiesel):
- The U.S. ethanol market size was USD 27.6 billion in 2024, which is expected to reach USD 42.1 billion by 2032. Another source estimates the U.S. ethanol market to be valued at USD 32.76 billion in 2025 and expected to reach USD 60.66 billion by 2032. The United States Ethanol Market is expected to reach USD 162.7 billion by 2032.
- The United States biodiesel market size reached USD 15.2 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 23.7 billion by 2033.
Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs):
- The global natural gas liquids market size was estimated at USD 15.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 21.59 billion by 2030. Another report indicates the global natural gas liquids market was valued at USD 16.9 billion in 2020 and is estimated to reach USD 28.5 billion by 2030. Market Research Future states the Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) Market is projected to grow from USD 24.72 billion in 2025 to USD 43.04 billion by 2035.
- The North American Natural Gas Liquids market will be USD 7016.88 million in 2024 and will grow to USD 9915.6 million by 2031. The North America Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) Market is estimated to grow from USD 7.08 billion in 2024 to USD 11.53 billion in 2033. The U.S. had a major share in the North America NGL market with a market size of USD 5536.32 million in 2024.

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Marathon Petroleum (MPC) over the next 2-3 years:

Midstream Segment Growth and Expansion: Marathon Petroleum anticipates continued "durable midstream growth" through its subsidiary, MPLX. MPLX targets a distribution growth rate of 12.5% over the next couple of years, which is expected to result in increasing annual cash distributions to MPC. This growth is supported by strategic acquisitions, such as MPLX's acquisition of a Delaware Basin sour gas treating business, and infrastructure projects like the Eiger Express Pipeline, a natural gas pipeline designed to transport up to 2.5 billion cubic feet per day from the Permian Basin to Katy, TX, with service expected to begin in mid-2028.
Enhanced Refining and Marketing Operational Efficiency and Throughput: The company's refining segment is focused on maintaining high utilization rates and optimizing operations. Marathon Petroleum's refineries achieved utilization rates of 95% in the third quarter of 2025 and 97% in the second quarter of 2025, with several facilities reaching monthly throughput records. Projected crude throughput volumes of 2.7 million barrels per day for the fourth quarter of 2025, representing a 90% utilization rate, underscore a continued focus on maximizing output from existing assets.
Strategic Refinery Upgrades and Optimization Projects: Investments in refinery upgrades are aimed at improving profitability and increasing the production of higher-value products. For example, the Galveston Bay resid hydrocracker is expected to reach full operating capacity before the end of November 2025, which will optimize the Gulf Coast system. Additionally, a project at the Galveston Bay refinery to upgrade high-sulfur distillate to higher-value ultra-low sulfur diesel, with an estimated return greater than 20%, is slated for completion by year-end 2027.
Improved Performance and Optimization of Renewable Diesel Facilities: Despite a challenging market environment for renewable diesel, Marathon Petroleum's facilities operated at an 86% utilization rate in the third quarter of 2025, indicating improved operational reliability and efficiency. Continued optimization and a potential rebound in this market could provide an additional revenue stream.
Strategic Portfolio Optimization: Marathon Petroleum has been actively optimizing its portfolio through strategic transactions. This includes the sale of its interest in an ethanol production joint venture and various acquisitions by MPLX, which are intended to enhance MPLX's growth profile and overall portfolio for future success. This strategic approach to asset management aims to focus on high-return opportunities and streamline operations.

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

Marathon Petroleum has maintained significant share repurchase programs, with $7.8 billion available under its authorizations as of December 31, 2024.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, MPC repurchased $1.3 billion of its shares.
For the full year 2024, Marathon Petroleum returned $10.2 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

Outbound Investments

MPLX, a subsidiary of Marathon Petroleum, acquired Northwind Midstream for $2.375 billion in the second quarter of 2025 to enhance its Permian natural gas operations.
MPLX also acquired the remaining 55% interest in BANGL pipeline for $715 million (expected to close in July 2025), achieving 100% ownership of the pipeline system.
The company is involved in a strategic partnership with ONEOK, Inc. to develop a 400 thousand bpd LPG export terminal and an associated pipeline, anticipated to be in service in 2028.

Capital Expenditures

Marathon Petroleum projects standalone capital investments of $1.25 billion for 2025, with approximately 70% dedicated to value-enhancing projects and 30% to sustaining capital. MPLX's capital spending outlook for 2025 is an additional $2.0 billion.
A primary focus for 2025 capital expenditures includes high-return investments at the Los Angeles, Galveston Bay, and Robinson refineries. Specific projects include a distillate hydrotreater at Galveston Bay and increased jet fuel production flexibility at Robinson.
Midstream capital expenditures are concentrated on expanding the Permian to Gulf Coast value chain, including growth in long-haul pipelines and increasing processing capacity in the Permian and Marcellus basins.

Better Bets than Marathon Petroleum (MPC)

	MPC	Better Performance than MPC
Metric	Value	INDUSTRY: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Rev Chg LTM	-6.1%	CLNE (2.0%), REX (-3.1%), SUN (-5.2%)
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-8.3%	PARR (3.8%), SUN (-4.0%), PSX (-6.6%), PBF (-7.1%), DINO (-8.2%)
Op Mgn LTM	3.6%	REX (8.6%), PARR (5.0%), SUN (4.5%), CVI (4.1%)
CFO/Rev LTM	5.5%	CLNE (22.4%), REX (13.7%)
FCF/Rev LTM	3.2%	CLNE (7.1%), VLO (3.2%)
Total Yield	6.9%	PARR (13.4%), DINO (7.9%), SUN (7.2%)
P/S	0.4	PBF (0.1), SUN (0.3), DINO (0.4), PSX (0.4), VLO (0.4)
P/Op Inc	12.3	PARR (4.7), WKC (6.1), SUN (6.9), CVI (12.1)

	MPC	Better Performance than MPC
Metric	Value	SECTOR: Energy
Rev Chg LTM	-6.1%	ENB (32.3%), WMB (9.0%), COP (8.2%), CVX (-3.6%), XOM (-4.4%)
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-8.3%	ENB (8.6%), WMB (0.8%), XOM (-5.6%), CVX (-6.2%), COP (-6.6%)
Op Mgn LTM	3.6%	WMB (34.3%), COP (21.0%), ENB (17.4%), XOM (11.0%), CVX (8.1%)
CFO/Rev LTM	5.5%	WMB (48.2%), COP (33.3%), ENB (20.0%), CVX (17.0%), XOM (15.9%)
FCF/Rev LTM	3.2%	WMB (15.0%), COP (11.9%), CVX (8.2%), XOM (7.3%), ENB (6.3%)
Total Yield	6.9%	CNQ (17.1%), ENB (12.9%), COP (10.8%), XOM (9.8%), CVX (8.3%)
P/S	0.4	PAGP (0.1), SUN (0.3), DINO (0.4), PSX (0.4), VLO (0.4)
P/Op Inc	12.3	CNQ (7.4), EOG (8.0), TRP (9.0), COP (9.4), ENB (9.8)

	MPC	Better Performance than MPC
Metric	Value	ALL OTHER SECTORS
Rev Chg LTM	-6.1%	NVDA (65.2%), MSFT (15.6%), GOOGL (13.4%), AMZN (10.9%), AAPL (6.0%)
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-8.3%	NVDA (91.6%), MSFT (13.2%), AMZN (11.3%), GOOGL (11.0%), AAPL (1.8%)
Op Mgn LTM	3.6%	NVDA (58.8%), MSFT (46.3%), GOOGL (32.2%), AAPL (31.9%), AMZN (11.4%)
CFO/Rev LTM	5.5%	MSFT (50.0%), NVDA (44.4%), GOOGL (39.3%), AAPL (26.6%), AMZN (18.1%)
FCF/Rev LTM	3.2%	NVDA (41.3%), MSFT (26.6%), META (23.7%), AAPL (23.5%), GOOGL (19.1%)
Total Yield	6.9%	WFC (9.9%), JNJ (8.4%), UNH (8.1%), BAC (7.7%), KO (7.5%)
P/S	0.4	CVS (0.2), MCK (0.2), CI (0.3), GM (0.3), ELV (0.4)
P/Op Inc	12.3	VZ (5.9), T (8.3), BN (8.4), MRK (9.4), UNH (11.9)

		Best Bets In Energy Sector
	MPC	TPL	AM	MGY	INSW	DTM	CTRA	WHD	EQT	CRC	LNG
What You Pay
P/E	20.3	45.0	19.7	12.9	10.5	28.5	11.0	15.7	19.1	11.6	12.9
P/EBIT	8.5	36.7	11.1	9.6	8.9	16.0	8.1	10.6	10.9	7.1	7.2
What You Get
Rev Chg Q	-0.8%	17.0%	8.7%	-2.5%	-12.8%	26.6%	33.7%	-10.0%	49.8%	-11.9%	18.0%
Rev Chg LTM	-6.1%	12.5%	8.7%	0.7%	-23.6%	20.4%	25.1%	-3.8%	64.8%	33.9%	17.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-8.3%	5.7%	9.0%	-6.6%	16.7%	9.6%	-5.3%	22.9%	-2.8%	5.3%	-12.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg	5.7%	47.9%	46.6%	33.7%	29.6%	25.8%	24.8%	23.5%	23.5%	22.0%	20.8%

[1] Choosing top 10 best bets from each sector quarterly is an alpha producing strategy vs sector benchmark
[2] Historical annualized return of 5.4%, alpha of -0.1%, and sharpe of 0.25

Latest Trefis Analyses

	Title	Topic	Date
0	DASHBOARDS
1	Marathon Petroleum Earnings Notes
2	Marathon Petroleum Stock Shares $59 Bil Success With Investors
3	Can Marathon Petroleum Stock Recover If Markets Fall?	Return
4	Day 9 of Gains Streak for Marathon Petroleum Stock with 10% Return (vs. 44% YTD) [9/26/2025]	Notification
5	Day 8 of Gains Streak for Marathon Petroleum Stock with 9.2% Return (vs. 42% YTD) [9/25/2025]	Notification
6	Day 7 of Gains Streak for Marathon Petroleum Stock with 7.3% Return (vs. 40% YTD) [9/24/2025]	Notification
7	Day 6 of Gains Streak for Marathon Petroleum Stock with 6.1% Return (vs. 38% YTD) [9/23/2025]	Notification
8	Day 7 of Gains Streak for Marathon Petroleum Stock with 9.2% Return (vs. 31% YTD) [9/2/2025]	Notification
9	Day 6 of Gains Streak for Marathon Petroleum Stock with 9% Return (vs. 30% YTD) [8/29/2025]	Notification
10	Day 5 of Gains Streak for Marathon Petroleum Stock with 8.7% Return (vs. 30% YTD) [8/28/2025]	Notification
11	ARTICLES
12	Marathon Petroleum Stock Capital Return Hits $59 Bil		December 17th, 2025
13	MPC Stock Up 10% after 9-Day Win Streak		September 27th, 2025
14	MPC Stock Up 9.2% after 8-Day Win Streak		September 26th, 2025
15	MPC Stock Up 7.3% after 7-Day Win Streak		September 25th, 2025
16	MPC Stock Up 6.1% after 6-Day Win Streak		September 24th, 2025

	Title
0	DASHBOARDS
1	Marathon Petroleum Earnings Notes
2	Marathon Petroleum Stock Shares $59 Bil Success With Investors
3	Can Marathon Petroleum Stock Recover If Markets Fall?
4	Day 9 of Gains Streak for Marathon Petroleum Stock with 10% Return (vs. 44% YTD) [9/26/2025]
5	Day 8 of Gains Streak for Marathon Petroleum Stock with 9.2% Return (vs. 42% YTD) [9/25/2025]
6	Day 7 of Gains Streak for Marathon Petroleum Stock with 7.3% Return (vs. 40% YTD) [9/24/2025]
7	Day 6 of Gains Streak for Marathon Petroleum Stock with 6.1% Return (vs. 38% YTD) [9/23/2025]
8	Day 7 of Gains Streak for Marathon Petroleum Stock with 9.2% Return (vs. 31% YTD) [9/2/2025]
9	Day 6 of Gains Streak for Marathon Petroleum Stock with 9% Return (vs. 30% YTD) [8/29/2025]
10	Day 5 of Gains Streak for Marathon Petroleum Stock with 8.7% Return (vs. 30% YTD) [8/28/2025]
11	ARTICLES
12	Marathon Petroleum Stock Capital Return Hits $59 Bil
13	MPC Stock Up 10% after 9-Day Win Streak
14	MPC Stock Up 9.2% after 8-Day Win Streak
15	MPC Stock Up 7.3% after 7-Day Win Streak
16	MPC Stock Up 6.1% after 6-Day Win Streak

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MPC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique Key	Date	Ticker	Company	Category	Trade Strategy	6M Fwd Rtn	12M Fwd Rtn	12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy	11212025	WHD	Cactus	Dip Buy	DB \| P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin	6.8%	6.8%	0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	10172025	OVV	Ovintiv	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	4.4%	4.4%	0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	10102025	COP	ConocoPhillips	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	4.5%	4.5%	-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	10102025	HAL	Halliburton	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	24.5%	24.5%	-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	10102025	OXY	Occidental Petroleum	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	-7.1%	-7.1%	-7.1%

Unique Key	Date	Ticker	Company	Category	Trade Strategy	6M Fwd Rtn	12M Fwd Rtn	12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy	11212025	WHD	Cactus	Dip Buy	DB \| P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin	6.8%	6.8%	0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	10172025	OVV	Ovintiv	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	4.4%	4.4%	0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	10102025	COP	ConocoPhillips	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	4.5%	4.5%	-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	10102025	HAL	Halliburton	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	24.5%	24.5%	-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield	10102025	OXY	Occidental Petroleum	Dip Buy	DB \| FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin	-7.1%	-7.1%	-7.1%

Recent Active Movers

1 Day Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
UDMY	Udemy	0.9	12.7%	-26.5%
TWO	Two Harbors Investment	1.2	12.1%	8.5%
IOVA	Iovance Biotherapeutics	0.9	12.0%	-65.9%
KOD	Kodiak Sciences	1.4	11.8%	171.1%
RXRX	Recursion Pharmaceuticals	2.1	11.4%	-30.8%
TTC	Toro	7.9	10.7%	2.0%
HUT	Hut 8	4.2	9.0%	96.0%
TPL	Texas Pacific Land	20.3	7.6%	-19.7%
AXGN	Axogen	1.5	7.0%	90.5%
SSII	SS Innovations International	1.1	6.7%	-25.6%

1 Day Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
NOW	ServiceNow	32.5	-80.0%	-85.2%
FDMT	4D Molecular Therapeutics	0.5	-20.1%	65.4%
IMNM	Immunome	1.7	-15.8%	86.3%
HNRG	Hallador Energy	0.7	-15.2%	51.2%
AMPX	Amprius Technologies	1.1	-14.6%	213.6%
BNTC	Benitec Biopharma	0.4	-13.1%	-14.6%
FLNC	Fluence Energy	2.4	-12.9%	16.9%
IMSR	Terrestrial Energy	0.7	-12.6%
BE	Bloom Energy	18.1	-12.1%	246.6%
BW	Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises	0.5	-12.1%	182.9%

1 Week Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
TLRY	Tilray Brands	13.7	55.9%	-3.2%
PL	Planet Labs PBC	5.0	27.3%	307.7%
EEX	Emerald	0.9	25.9%	-2.8%
EVCM	EverCommerce	2.2	17.2%	10.4%
CNL	Collective Mining	1.1	15.8%	229.3%
ENVA	Enova International	4.1	15.8%	70.8%
IMVT	Immunovant	4.6	14.5%	8.9%
QURE	uniQure	1.3	14.3%	30.4%
INNV	InnovAge	0.8	14.2%	49.6%
PGEN	Precigen	1.2	13.4%	255.4%

1 Week Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
NOW	ServiceNow	32.5	-81.7%	-85.2%
RZLT	Rezolute	0.2	-81.6%	-59.0%
FRMI	Fermi	6.3	-41.1%
LENZ	LENZ Therapeutics	0.5	-34.6%	-43.3%
BETR	Better Home & Finance	0.5	-30.9%	292.0%
LWLG	Lightwave Logic	0.4	-29.5%	41.4%
APLD	Applied Digital	5.6	-29.0%	188.0%
CRWV	CoreWeave	31.4	-26.8%
WULF	TeraWulf	4.5	-26.6%	104.4%
BW	Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises	0.5	-26.5%	182.9%

1 Month Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1M Rtn	YTD Rtn
OLMA	Olema Pharmaceuticals	2.8	282.6%	459.2%
WVE	WAVE Life Sciences	2.7	128.5%	32.1%
ALMS	Alumis	0.8	89.8%	34.6%
NUVB	Nuvation Bio	2.9	82.4%	220.3%
SEMR	SEMrush	1.8	75.7%	-0.2%
TE	T1 Energy	0.8	70.4%
ANF	Abercrombie & Fitch	5.6	68.4%	-21.6%
CBLL	CeriBell	0.8	67.5%	-16.6%
FTRE	Fortrea	1.5	65.4%	-13.2%
VERA	Vera Therapeutics	3.1	64.7%	14.8%

1 Month Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1M Rtn	YTD Rtn
NOW	ServiceNow	32.5	-81.3%	-85.2%
RZLT	Rezolute	0.2	-80.3%	-59.0%
JANX	Janux Therapeutics	0.9	-50.9%	-73.7%
FRMI	Fermi	6.3	-50.6%
AGIO	Agios Pharmaceuticals	1.5	-43.6%	-22.6%
IMSR	Terrestrial Energy	0.7	-38.9%
LENZ	LENZ Therapeutics	0.5	-36.3%	-43.3%
LWLG	Lightwave Logic	0.4	-36.3%	41.4%
UAMY	United States Antimony	0.5	-33.7%	156.5%
BETR	Better Home & Finance	0.5	-33.6%	292.0%

Recent Active Movers

1 Day Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
UDMY	Udemy	0.9	12.7%	-26.5%
TWO	Two Harbors Investment	1.2	12.1%	8.5%
IOVA	Iovance Biotherapeutics	0.9	12.0%	-65.9%
KOD	Kodiak Sciences	1.4	11.8%	171.1%
RXRX	Recursion Pharmaceuticals	2.1	11.4%	-30.8%
TTC	Toro	7.9	10.7%	2.0%
HUT	Hut 8	4.2	9.0%	96.0%
TPL	Texas Pacific Land	20.3	7.6%	-19.7%
AXGN	Axogen	1.5	7.0%	90.5%
SSII	SS Innovations International	1.1	6.7%	-25.6%

1 Day Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1D Rtn	YTD Rtn
NOW	ServiceNow	32.5	-80.0%	-85.2%
FDMT	4D Molecular Therapeutics	0.5	-20.1%	65.4%
IMNM	Immunome	1.7	-15.8%	86.3%
HNRG	Hallador Energy	0.7	-15.2%	51.2%
AMPX	Amprius Technologies	1.1	-14.6%	213.6%
BNTC	Benitec Biopharma	0.4	-13.1%	-14.6%
FLNC	Fluence Energy	2.4	-12.9%	16.9%
IMSR	Terrestrial Energy	0.7	-12.6%
BE	Bloom Energy	18.1	-12.1%	246.6%
BW	Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises	0.5	-12.1%	182.9%

1 Week Top Gainers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
TLRY	Tilray Brands	13.7	55.9%	-3.2%
PL	Planet Labs PBC	5.0	27.3%	307.7%
EEX	Emerald	0.9	25.9%	-2.8%
EVCM	EverCommerce	2.2	17.2%	10.4%
CNL	Collective Mining	1.1	15.8%	229.3%
ENVA	Enova International	4.1	15.8%	70.8%
IMVT	Immunovant	4.6	14.5%	8.9%
QURE	uniQure	1.3	14.3%	30.4%
INNV	InnovAge	0.8	14.2%	49.6%
PGEN	Precigen	1.2	13.4%	255.4%

1 Week Top Losers

Ticker	Company	Mkt Cap (B)	1W Rtn	YTD Rtn
NOW	ServiceNow	32.5	-81.7%	-85.2%
RZLT	Rezolute	0.2	-81.6%	-59.0%
FRMI	Fermi	6.3	-41.1%
LENZ	LENZ Therapeutics	0.5	-34.6%	-43.3%
BETR	Better Home & Finance	0.5	-30.9%	292.0%
LWLG	Lightwave Logic	0.4	-29.5%	41.4%
APLD	Applied Digital	5.6	-29.0%	188.0%
CRWV	CoreWeave	31.4	-26.8%
WULF	TeraWulf	4.5	-26.6%	104.4%
BW	Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises	0.5	-26.5%	182.9%

Peer Comparisons for Marathon Petroleum

Peers to compare with:

Financials

	MPC	VLO	PSX	PBF	DINO	DK	Median
Name	Marathon.	Valero E.	Phillips.	PBF Ener.	HF Sincl.	Delek US
Mkt Price	174.50	162.91	131.99	26.61	47.44	31.53	89.72
Mkt Cap	52.9	50.3	53.4	3.0	8.8	1.9	29.6
Rev LTM	133,262	123,071	131,953	30,275	26,905	10,667	76,673
Op Inc LTM	4,734	3,085	1,718	-1,372	711	-59	1,214
FCF LTM	4,276	3,960	1,351	-1,333	676	-741	1,014
FCF 3Y Avg	8,298	6,989	4,069	563	1,450	-215	2,760
CFO LTM	7,391	4,839	3,408	-868	1,167	-130	2,288
CFO 3Y Avg	10,783	7,926	6,060	1,138	1,876	230	3,968

Growth & Margins

	MPC	VLO	PSX	PBF	DINO	DK	Median
Name	Marathon.	Valero E.	Phillips.	PBF Ener.	HF Sincl.	Delek US
Rev Chg LTM	-6.1%	-8.5%	-10.7%	-18.7%	-9.5%	-20.5%	-10.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg	-8.3%	-10.3%	-6.6%	-7.1%	-8.2%	-17.2%	-8.3%
Rev Chg Q	-0.8%	-2.2%	-2.9%	-14.4%	0.6%	-5.1%	-2.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM	-0.2%	-0.6%	-0.8%	-4.0%	0.2%	-1.4%	-0.7%
Op Mgn LTM	3.6%	2.5%	1.3%	-4.5%	2.6%	-0.6%	1.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg	6.0%	5.3%	3.1%	2.1%	4.5%	-0.2%	3.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM	0.4%	0.8%	0.7%	-0.4%	2.5%	3.9%	0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM	5.5%	3.9%	2.6%	-2.9%	4.3%	-1.2%	3.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg	7.4%	5.7%	4.2%	2.6%	6.1%	1.3%	4.9%
FCF/Rev LTM	3.2%	3.2%	1.0%	-4.4%	2.5%	-6.9%	1.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg	5.7%	5.0%	2.8%	1.0%	4.6%	-2.2%	3.7%

Valuation

	MPC	VLO	PSX	PBF	DINO	DK	Median
Name	Marathon.	Valero E.	Phillips.	PBF Ener.	HF Sincl.	Delek US
Mkt Cap	52.9	50.3	53.4	3.0	8.8	1.9	29.6
P/S	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.4
P/EBIT	8.5	22.3	18.6	-2.9	13.3	-10.6	10.9
P/E	20.3	35.2	36.6	-3.5	24.8	-3.8	22.5
P/CFO	7.9	10.9	16.1	-4.0	8.4	-14.9	8.1
Total Yield	6.9%	5.5%	6.2%	-25.0%	7.9%	-23.3%	5.9%
Dividend Yield	1.9%	2.7%	3.5%	3.6%	3.9%	3.2%	3.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg	14.3%	14.6%	7.5%	5.8%	14.7%	-12.2%	10.9%
D/E	0.6	0.2	0.4	0.9	0.3	1.7	0.5
Net D/E	0.5	0.1	0.4	0.8	0.2	1.4	0.5

Returns

	MPC	VLO	PSX	PBF	DINO	DK	Median
Name	Marathon.	Valero E.	Phillips.	PBF Ener.	HF Sincl.	Delek US
1M Rtn	-11.0%	-8.7%	-3.4%	-29.8%	-13.7%	-21.1%	-12.3%
3M Rtn	-5.0%	0.2%	-0.0%	-12.1%	-9.1%	1.8%	-2.5%
6M Rtn	5.3%	18.5%	7.7%	17.1%	16.7%	50.5%	16.9%
12M Rtn	29.3%	34.6%	18.2%	-0.4%	39.4%	89.5%	31.9%
3Y Rtn	69.7%	49.7%	46.2%	-20.4%	6.0%	37.2%	41.7%
1M Excs Rtn	-11.7%	-9.4%	-4.1%	-30.5%	-14.4%	-21.8%	-13.1%
3M Excs Rtn	-6.6%	-1.3%	-0.0%	-13.9%	-11.2%	-2.6%	-4.6%
6M Excs Rtn	-7.0%	6.2%	-4.7%	4.7%	4.4%	38.1%	4.5%
12M Excs Rtn	11.5%	19.0%	0.5%	-16.0%	22.0%	79.1%	15.3%
3Y Excs Rtn	-0.9%	-20.4%	-24.3%	-87.0%	-62.6%	-35.6%	-30.0%

Financials

Annual
Quarterly

$ Mil \| FY: 12/31	LTM	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
Period End	9/30/2025	12/31/2024	12/31/2023	12/31/2022	12/31/2021	12/31/2020	12/31/2019
Filing Date	11/4/2025	2/27/2025	2/28/2024	2/23/2023	2/24/2022	2/26/2021	2/28/2020
Key Financials
Total Revenue	133,262	138,864	148,379	177,453	119,983	69,779	111,148
EBITDA	10,141	10,602	18,561	24,882	7,448	-8,904	7,689
Operating Income	4,734	5,248	12,586	18,970	3,353	-2,707	4,942
Net Income	2,883	3,445	9,681	14,516	9,738	-9,826	2,637
EPS	9.39	10.11	23.73	28.31	15.34	-15.13	4.00
Growth Rates
Total Revenue Growth	-6.1%	-6.4%	-16.4%	47.9%	71.9%	-37.2%	29.1%
EBITDA Growth	-15.9%	-42.9%	-25.4%	234.1%	183.6%	-215.8%	12.9%
Operating Income Growth	-24.4%	-58.3%	-33.7%	465.8%	223.9%	-154.8%	18.0%
Net Income Growth	-36.3%	-64.4%	-33.3%	49.1%	199.1%	-472.6%	-5.1%
Margins
EBITDA Margin	7.6%	7.6%	12.5%	14.0%	6.2%	-12.8%	6.9%
Operating Income Margin	3.6%	3.8%	8.5%	10.7%	2.8%	-3.9%	4.4%
Net Income Margin	2.2%	2.5%	6.5%	8.2%	8.1%	-14.1%	2.4%
Cash & Debt
Total Cash	2,654	3,210	10,224	11,770	10,839	415	1,393
Total Debt	34,203	28,758	28,501	27,909	26,904	33,095	30,538
Net Debt / (Cash)	31,549	25,548	18,277	16,139	16,065	32,680	29,145
Cash Flows
Net Cash from Operations	7,391	8,665	14,117	16,361	4,360	2,419	9,441
Free Cash from Operations	4,276	6,132	12,227	13,941	2,896	-368	4,631
Returns to Shareholders
Dividends	1,132	1,154	1,261	1,279	1,484	1,510	1,398
Share Repurchases	3,861	9,189	11,572	11,922	4,654	-0	1,950

$ Mil \| FY: 12/31	2025Q3	2025Q2	2025Q1	2024Q4	2024Q3	2024Q2	2024Q1	2023Q4	2023Q3	2023Q2	2023Q1	2022Q4
Period End	9/30/2025	6/30/2025	3/31/2025	12/31/2024	9/30/2024	6/30/2024	3/31/2024	12/31/2023	9/30/2023	6/30/2023	3/31/2023	12/31/2022
Filing Date	11/4/2025	8/5/2025	5/6/2025	2/27/2025	11/5/2024	8/6/2024	4/30/2024	2/28/2024	10/31/2023	8/1/2023	5/2/2023	2/23/2023
Key Financials Quarterly
Total Revenue	34,809	33,799	31,517	33,137	35,107	37,914	32,706	36,255	40,917	36,343	34,864	39,813
Ebitda	3,585	3,010	1,510	2,036	2,311	3,494	2,761	3,498	5,780	4,313	4,995	5,655
Operating Income	1,673	1,895	354	812	1,083	2,074	1,279	1,827	4,087	2,824	3,848	4,459
Net Income	1,370	1,216	-74	371	622	1,515	937	1,451	3,280	2,226	2,724	3,321
EPS	4.51	3.96	-0.24	1.16	1.88	4.34	2.59	3.86	8.31	5.34	6.13	7.13
Key Financials TTM
Total Revenue TTM	133,262	133,560	137,675	138,864	141,982	147,792	146,221	148,379	151,937	156,807	174,259	177,453
Ebitda TTM	10,141	8,867	9,351	10,602	12,064	15,533	16,352	18,586	20,743	22,506	27,327	24,878
Operating Income TTM	4,734	4,144	4,323	5,248	6,263	9,267	10,017	12,586	15,218	16,367	21,428	18,970
Net Income TTM	2,883	2,135	2,434	3,445	4,525	7,183	7,894	9,681	11,551	12,748	16,395	14,516
Growth Rates Quarterly
Total Revenue Growth	-0.8%	-10.9%	-3.6%	-8.6%	-14.2%	4.3%	-6.2%	-8.9%	-10.6%	-32.4%	-8.4%	12.7%
EBITDA Growth	55.1%	-13.9%	-45.3%	-41.8%	-60.0%	-19.0%	-44.7%	-38.1%	-23.4%	-52.8%	96.2%	129.6%
Operating Income Growth	54.5%	-8.6%	-72.3%	-55.6%	-73.5%	-26.6%	-66.8%	-59.0%	-21.9%	-64.2%	176.8%	196.1%
Net Income Growth	120.3%	-19.7%	-107.9%	-74.4%	-81.0%	-31.9%	-65.6%	-56.3%	-26.7%	-62.1%	222.4%	329.1%
Margins Quarterly
EBITDA Margin	10.3%	8.9%	4.8%	6.1%	6.6%	9.2%	8.4%	9.6%	14.1%	11.9%	14.3%	14.2%
Operating Income Margin	4.8%	5.6%	1.1%	2.5%	3.1%	5.5%	3.9%	5.0%	10.0%	7.8%	11.0%	11.2%
Net Income Margin	3.9%	3.6%	-0.2%	1.1%	1.8%	4.0%	2.9%	4.0%	8.0%	6.1%	7.8%	8.3%
Cash & Debt
Total Cash	2,654	1,673	3,812	3,210	5,143	8,499	7,574	10,224	13,056	11,454	11,452	11,770
Total Debt	34,203	30,035	32,137	28,758	29,396	30,111	28,531	28,501	28,583	28,565	28,542	27,909
Net Debt / (Cash)	31,549	28,362	28,325	25,548	24,253	21,612	20,957	18,277	15,527	17,111	17,090	16,139
Cash Flows Quarterly
FCF from Operations	2,609	2,639	-64	2,207	1,684	3,242	1,532	1,123	4,953	3,984	4,057	4,382
Cash Flows TTM
FCF from Operations TTM	7,391	6,466	7,069	8,665	7,581	10,850	11,592	14,117	17,376	14,937	17,905	16,361
Returns to Shareholders Quarterly
Dividends	276	279	285	292	273	290	299	311	297	316	337	351
Share Repurchases	650	780	1,057	1,374	2,701	2,896	2,218	2,505	2,819	3,068	3,180	1,837
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) Quarterly
ROIC	17.2%	22.9%	4.5%	11.1%	16.1%	32.2%	20.0%	32.9%	82.5%	53.8%	71.1%	86.6%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) TTM
ROIC TTM	12.6%	12.8%	13.2%	17.5%	21.7%	34.7%	38.4%	55.0%	77.5%	75.5%	97.9%	91.8%

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
Refining & Marketing	141,974	172,205	115,494	66,247	107,408
Midstream	10,508	10,590	9,619	8,438	8,760
Renewable Diesel	1,664
Intersegment revenues	-5,767	-5,342	-5,130	-4,906	-5,020
Total	148,379	177,453	119,983	69,779	111,148

Price Behavior

Price Behavior

Market Price	$174.50
Market Cap ($ Bil)	52.9
First Trading Date	07/01/2011
Distance from 52W High	-12.7%
	50 Days	200 Days
DMA Price	$189.79	$167.32
DMA Trend	up	up
Distance from DMA	-8.1%	4.3%
	3M	1YR
Volatility	29.2%	34.4%
Downside Capture	64.96	63.44
Upside Capture	32.60	81.53
Correlation (SPY)	33.2%	58.0%

MPC Betas & Captures as of 11/30/2025

	1M	2M	3M	6M	1Y	3Y
Beta	0.93	0.92	0.73	0.61	1.00	0.84
Up Beta	0.44	0.49	0.58	0.75	1.06	0.95
Down Beta	3.70	1.61	1.69	1.29	1.35	1.12
Up Capture	54%	70%	47%	44%	68%	36%
Bmk +ve Days	12	25	38	73	141	426
Stock +ve Days	10	21	35	77	147	410
Down Capture	76%	83%	24%	6%	73%	84%
Bmk -ve Days	7	16	24	52	107	323
Stock -ve Days	9	20	27	48	101	339

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively

1Y 5Y 10Y

Based On 1-Year Data

		Comparison of MPC With Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y)
	MPC	Sector ETF	Equity	Gold	Commodities	Real Estate	Bitcoin
Annualized Return	21.9%	3.2%	12.1%	61.5%	2.2%	-2.2%	-12.7%
Annualized Volatility	34.6%	24.7%	19.7%	19.3%	15.9%	17.7%	35.4%
Sharpe Ratio	0.62	0.08	0.46	2.36	-0.05	-0.28	-0.17
Correlation With Other Assets		80.0%	57.1%	6.8%	50.8%	45.2%	20.9%

ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLE, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, and Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Based On 5-Year Data

		Comparison of MPC With Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y)
	MPC	Sector ETF	Equity	Gold	Commodities	Real Estate	Bitcoin
Annualized Return	36.1%	21.9%	14.4%	18.3%	11.4%	4.8%	36.3%
Annualized Volatility	32.7%	26.8%	17.1%	15.5%	18.9%	18.9%	48.9%
Sharpe Ratio	1.00	0.75	0.68	0.95	0.49	0.17	0.63
Correlation With Other Assets		79.7%	42.8%	10.0%	49.5%	29.3%	15.9%

Based On 10-Year Data

		Comparison of MPC With Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y)
	MPC	Sector ETF	Equity	Gold	Commodities	Real Estate	Bitcoin
Annualized Return	16.5%	8.0%	14.5%	14.6%	6.1%	5.4%	70.7%
Annualized Volatility	40.8%	29.8%	18.0%	14.7%	17.7%	20.8%	55.9%
Sharpe Ratio	0.51	0.32	0.69	0.82	0.27	0.23	0.91
Correlation With Other Assets		76.5%	55.0%	0.5%	44.6%	44.8%	13.1%

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date	11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity	9,263,628
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025	28.5%
Average Daily Volume	1,878,573
Days-to-Cover Short Interest	4.93
Basic Shares Quantity	303,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares	3.1%

Returns Analyses

	Title
0	Can Marathon Petroleum Stock Recover If Markets Fall?
1	MPC YTD Stock Return Of 23% Outperforms VLO by 26% and Outperforms VLO by 26%
2	Marathon Petroleum Stock Return Comparison

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

	Forward Returns
Earnings Date	1D Returns	5D Returns	21D Returns
11/4/2025	-6.1%	0.3%	-2.4%
8/5/2025	0.6%	-5.6%	7.2%
5/6/2025	0.9%	10.3%	10.1%
2/4/2025	6.7%	4.6%	-7.6%
11/5/2024	3.2%	7.7%	4.4%
8/6/2024	5.5%	8.8%	6.5%
4/30/2024	-9.4%	-8.8%	-13.6%
1/30/2024	6.1%	6.9%	4.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS
# Positive	17	17	17
# Negative	7	7	7
Median Positive	3.2%	4.6%	7.9%
Median Negative	-3.9%	-5.7%	-8.5%
Max Positive	6.7%	10.3%	35.7%
Max Negative	-9.4%	-11.2%	-13.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report Date	Filing Date	Filing
9302025	11042025	10-Q 9/30/2025
6302025	8052025	10-Q 6/30/2025
3312025	5062025	10-Q 3/31/2025
12312024	2272025	10-K 12/31/2024
9302024	11052024	10-Q 9/30/2024
6302024	8062024	10-Q 6/30/2024
3312024	4302024	10-Q 3/31/2024
12312023	2282024	10-K 12/31/2023
9302023	10312023	10-Q 9/30/2023
6302023	8012023	10-Q 6/30/2023
3312023	5022023	10-Q 3/31/2023
12312022	2232023	10-K 12/31/2022
9302022	11012022	10-Q 9/30/2022
6302022	8022022	10-Q 6/30/2022
3312022	5032022	10-Q 3/31/2022
12312021	2242022	10-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

	Owner	Title	Filing Date	Action	Price	Shares	Transacted Value	Value of Held Shares	Form
0	Rucker Kim K.W.		7072025	Sell	175.00	7,392	1,293,600	3,315,247	Form
1	Hessling Ricky D.	Chief Commercial Officer	3132025	Buy	134.72	2,000	269,440	1,638,465	Form
2	Bayh Evan		3072025	Buy	133.70	1,000	133,700	9,266,078	Form
3	CAMPBELL JEFFREY C		12062024	Buy	149.61	6,000	897,644	911,109	Form

External Quote Links

0	Y Finance	Barrons
1	TradingView	Morningstar
2	SeekingAlpha	ValueLine
3	Motley Fool	Robinhood
4	CNBC	Etrade
5	MarketWatch	Unusual Whales
6	YCharts	Perplexity Finance
7	FinViz

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Marathon Petroleum (MPC)

Market Price (12/18/2025): $174.43 | Market Cap: $52.9 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Marathon Petroleum (MPC)

Market Price (12/18/2025): $174.43Market Cap: $52.9 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

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Market Price (12/18/2025): $174.43 | Market Cap: $52.9 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Market Price (12/18/2025): $174.43
Market Cap: $52.9 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing