Tearsheet

Marathon Petroleum (MPC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $190.12 | Market Cap: $57.6 Bil
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Marathon Petroleum (MPC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $190.12
Market Cap: $57.6 Bil
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MPC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) experienced notable developments impacting its stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. **1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Performance and Shareholder Returns.** Marathon Petroleum reported a significant increase in net income for the third quarter of 2025, reaching $1.37 billion, with basic earnings per share rising to $4.51. The company also completed a $650 million share repurchase tranche and announced a 10% increase in its quarterly dividend, signaling strengthened operational performance and a continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders. **2. Mixed Analyst Expectations and Consensus Rating.** While the company demonstrated strong Q3 results, it missed Zacks Consensus Estimates for earnings per share by 3.22%, despite beating revenue estimates. Despite the mixed earnings surprise, the average analyst rating for MPC stock during this period was "Buy," with an average price target forecasting a 7.12% increase over the next year. **3. Strategic Investments and Midstream Expansion.** Marathon Petroleum continued to invest in high-return projects across its refineries, including upgrades at facilities in Los Angeles, Galveston Bay, and Robinson. Additionally, the company expanded its midstream operations with projects like the Eiger Express Pipeline and the Secretariat processing plant, aiming to enhance its integrated value chain and support increased producer activity. **4. Leadership Transition Announcement.** The company announced an upcoming leadership transition with Maryann T. Mannen appointed as the future chairman of the board. This leadership succession could influence future company direction, reflecting a strategic move in the company's governance. **5. Robust U.S. Fuel Demand and Industry Outlook.** The positive Q3 earnings and buyback completion reinforced near-term momentum, largely driven by ongoing robust U.S. fuel demand. Marathon Petroleum's integrated value chains and geographically diversified assets are seen as positioning the company well to lead in capital allocation within the energy industry, aiming to enhance shareholder value through strategic investments and operational efficiencies.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MPC Return-27%61%87%30%-4%41%286%
Peers Return20%9%63%11%-20%8%103%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MPC Win Rate58%67%75%50%50%80% 
Peers Win Rate47%47%67%55%43%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MPC Max Drawdown-72%-1%0%-9%-9%-15% 
Peers Max Drawdown-64%-18%-11%-18%-28%-37% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PSX, VLO, XPRO, NFE, MPC. See MPC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMPCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-30.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven43.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven113 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-73.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven272.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven435 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-48.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven93.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven968 days120 days

Compare to PSX, VLO, XPRO, NFE, MPC


In The Past

Marathon Petroleum's stock fell -30.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -30.2% loss requires a 43.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Marathon Petroleum (MPC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MPC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
8.3%8.3%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
13.3%13.3%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.8%2.8%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
22.5%22.5%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.4%-0.4%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Marathon Petroleum

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MPCPSXVLOXPRONFEMedian
NameMarathon.Phillips.Valero E.Expro New Fort. 
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Growth & Margins

MPCPSXVLOXPRONFEMedian
NameMarathon.Phillips.Valero E.Expro New Fort. 
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Valuation

MPCPSXVLOXPRONFEMedian
NameMarathon.Phillips.Valero E.Expro New Fort. 
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Returns

MPCPSXVLOXPRONFEMedian
NameMarathon.Phillips.Valero E.Expro New Fort. 
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Refining & Marketing141,974172,205115,49466,247107,408
Midstream10,50810,5909,6198,4388,760
Renewable Diesel1,664    
Intersegment revenues-5,767-5,342-5,130-4,906-5,020
Total148,379177,453119,98369,779111,148


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,210,689
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-4.5%
Average Daily Volume2,546,934
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.83
Basic Shares Quantity303,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221101202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Rucker Kim K.W. 7072025Sell175.007,3921,293,6003,315,247Form
1Hessling Ricky D.Chief Commercial Officer3132025Buy134.722,000269,4401,638,465Form
2Bayh Evan 3072025Buy133.701,000133,7009,266,078Form
3CAMPBELL JEFFREY C 12062024Buy149.616,000897,644911,109Form