Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $190.12 | Market Cap: $57.6 BilSector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Marathon Petroleum (MPC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $190.12Market Cap: $57.6 BilSector: EnergyIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and US Energy Independence. Themes include Renewable Fuel Production, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MPC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) experienced notable developments impacting its stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025. **1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Performance and Shareholder Returns.** Marathon Petroleum reported a significant increase in net income for the third quarter of 2025, reaching $1.37 billion, with basic earnings per share rising to $4.51. The company also completed a $650 million share repurchase tranche and announced a 10% increase in its quarterly dividend, signaling strengthened operational performance and a continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders. **2. Mixed Analyst Expectations and Consensus Rating.** While the company demonstrated strong Q3 results, it missed Zacks Consensus Estimates for earnings per share by 3.22%, despite beating revenue estimates. Despite the mixed earnings surprise, the average analyst rating for MPC stock during this period was "Buy," with an average price target forecasting a 7.12% increase over the next year. **3. Strategic Investments and Midstream Expansion.** Marathon Petroleum continued to invest in high-return projects across its refineries, including upgrades at facilities in Los Angeles, Galveston Bay, and Robinson. Additionally, the company expanded its midstream operations with projects like the Eiger Express Pipeline and the Secretariat processing plant, aiming to enhance its integrated value chain and support increased producer activity. **4. Leadership Transition Announcement.** The company announced an upcoming leadership transition with Maryann T. Mannen appointed as the future chairman of the board. This leadership succession could influence future company direction, reflecting a strategic move in the company's governance. **5. Robust U.S. Fuel Demand and Industry Outlook.** The positive Q3 earnings and buyback completion reinforced near-term momentum, largely driven by ongoing robust U.S. fuel demand. Marathon Petroleum's integrated value chains and geographically diversified assets are seen as positioning the company well to lead in capital allocation within the energy industry, aiming to enhance shareholder value through strategic investments and operational efficiencies.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MPC Return | -27% | 61% | 87% | 30% | -4% | 41% | 286% |
| Peers Return | 20% | 9% | 63% | 11% | -20% | 8% | 103% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MPC Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 75% | 50% | 50% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 47% | 47% | 67% | 55% | 43% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MPC Max Drawdown | -72% | -1% | 0% | -9% | -9% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -64% | -18% | -11% | -18% | -28% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PSX, VLO, XPRO, NFE, MPC. See MPC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MPC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 113 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -73.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 272.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 435 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -48.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 968 days | 120 days |
Compare to PSX, VLO, XPRO, NFE, MPC
In The Past
Marathon Petroleum's stock fell -30.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/7/2022. A -30.2% loss requires a 43.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MPC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WHD | Cactus | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 8.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 10172025 | OVV | Ovintiv | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 13.3% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| 10102025 | COP | ConocoPhillips | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.8% | 2.8% | -2.3% |
| 10102025 | HAL | Halliburton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 22.5% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| 10102025 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -5.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Marathon Petroleum
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | - |
| Mkt Cap | - |
| Rev LTM | - |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | - |
| FCF 3Y Avg | - |
| CFO LTM | - |
| CFO 3Y Avg | - |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | - |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | - |
| Rev Chg Q | - |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | - |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | - |
| FCF/Rev LTM | - |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | - |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | - |
| P/S | - |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | - |
| P/CFO | - |
| Total Yield | - |
| Dividend Yield | - |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | - |
| D/E | - |
| Net D/E | - |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | - |
| 3M Rtn | - |
| 6M Rtn | - |
| 12M Rtn | - |
| 3Y Rtn | - |
| 1M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3M Excs Rtn | - |
| 6M Excs Rtn | - |
| 12M Excs Rtn | - |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | - |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Rucker Kim K.W. | 7072025 | Sell | 175.00 | 7,392 | 1,293,600 | 3,315,247 | Form | |
| 1 | Hessling Ricky D. | Chief Commercial Officer | 3132025 | Buy | 134.72 | 2,000 | 269,440 | 1,638,465 | Form |
| 2 | Bayh Evan | 3072025 | Buy | 133.70 | 1,000 | 133,700 | 9,266,078 | Form | |
| 3 | CAMPBELL JEFFREY C | 12062024 | Buy | 149.61 | 6,000 | 897,644 | 911,109 | Form |
Industry Resources
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |