Tesla (TSLA)
Market Price (10/24/2026): $372.2 | Market Cap: $1.5 TrilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Tesla (TSLA)
Market Price (10/24/2026): $372.2Market Cap: $1.5 TrilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 19 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.3 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, Automation & Robotics, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -23% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 264x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 64x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 375x Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.2% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% Key risksTSLA key risks include [1] significant regulatory and legal challenges concerning its autonomous driving technology and [2] the company's heavy dependence on its controversial and distracted CEO, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, CFO LTM is 19 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Renewable Energy Transition, Battery Technology & Metals, Automation & Robotics, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -23% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 12x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 264x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 64x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 375x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -0.2% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.0% |
| Key risksTSLA key risks include [1] significant regulatory and legal challenges concerning its autonomous driving technology and [2] the company's heavy dependence on its controversial and distracted CEO, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Tesla (TSLA) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Decline in GAAP Net Income and Operating Margin in Q3 2026. Tesla's GAAP net income attributable to common shareholders decreased by 43% year-over-year to $787 million in fiscal Q3 2026. Concurrently, operating income fell by 56% to $718 million, compressing the operating margin to 2.6% from 5.8% a year earlier. This decline in profitability was a core concern for investors, despite adjusted earnings per share (EPS) beating expectations at $0.48 against estimates of $0.43-$0.45.
2. Flat Revenue and Year-over-Year Drop in Automotive Revenue. While Tesla reported Q3 2026 revenue of $28.046 billion, it was essentially unchanged year-over-year and slightly missed Wall Street's consensus of approximately $28.3 billion. Automotive revenue, which constitutes about three-quarters of total sales, specifically declined 3% year-over-year to $20.56 billion. This was primarily attributed to lower average vehicle selling prices and ongoing battery supply constraints.
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Tesla (TSLA) stock has lost about 10% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Decline in GAAP Net Income and Operating Margin in Q3 2026. Tesla's GAAP net income attributable to common shareholders decreased by 43% year-over-year to $787 million in fiscal Q3 2026. Concurrently, operating income fell by 56% to $718 million, compressing the operating margin to 2.6% from 5.8% a year earlier. This decline in profitability was a core concern for investors, despite adjusted earnings per share (EPS) beating expectations at $0.48 against estimates of $0.43-$0.45.
2. Flat Revenue and Year-over-Year Drop in Automotive Revenue. While Tesla reported Q3 2026 revenue of $28.046 billion, it was essentially unchanged year-over-year and slightly missed Wall Street's consensus of approximately $28.3 billion. Automotive revenue, which constitutes about three-quarters of total sales, specifically declined 3% year-over-year to $20.56 billion. This was primarily attributed to lower average vehicle selling prices and ongoing battery supply constraints.
3. Reduced Capital Expenditure Forecast and Uncertainty in Future Growth Initiatives. Tesla lowered its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to approximately $20 billion from its previous projection of over $25 billion. This reduction, without specific details on which projects would be affected, created uncertainty among investors regarding the pace and scale of future investments in critical areas like AI, robotics (Optimus), and autonomous driving (Robotaxi). Furthermore, CEO Elon Musk's cautious remarks on the development and regulatory hurdles for these initiatives added to investor apprehension.
4. Missed Energy Storage Deployments and Impact of Lapsed EV Tax Credits. In fiscal Q3 2026, Tesla's energy storage deployments reached 13.7 GWh, falling short of analyst estimates which were closer to 15.9 GWh. Additionally, the absence of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, which had boosted Q3 2025 sales before its expiration on September 30, 2025, made year-over-year comparisons more challenging and contributed to the flat revenue performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.5% change in TSLA stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.3% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 420.60 | 372.22 | -11.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 97,879 | 103,570 | 5.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.9% | 3.1% | -21.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 352.2 | 374.8 | 6.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,234 | 3,240 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | -11.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.8% | 63.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.6% | 62.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.1% change in TSLA stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 18.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 371.75 | 372.22 | 0.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 94,827 | 103,570 | 9.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.0% | 3.1% | -22.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 316.6 | 374.8 | 18.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,231 | 3,240 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 0.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.2% | 62.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 4.0% | 63.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.3% change in TSLA stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -51.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 444.72 | 372.22 | -16.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 92,720 | 103,570 | 11.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 6.3% | 3.1% | -51.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 243.8 | 374.8 | 53.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,223 | 3,240 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.3% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | -16.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.0% | 63.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -5.0% | 68.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 48.8% change in TSLA stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 477.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 250.22 | 372.22 | 48.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 94,028 | 103,570 | 10.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.0% | 3.1% | -76.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 64.9 | 374.8 | 477.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,171 | 3,240 | -2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 48.8% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 48.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 83.9% | 59.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 43.7% | 75.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TSLA Return | 50% | -65% | 102% | 63% | 11% | -17% | 59% |
| Peers Return | 82% | -56% | -1% | -18% | 36% | -35% | -42% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TSLA Win Rate | 67% | 17% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 38% | 45% | 45% | 57% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TSLA Max Drawdown | -36% | -73% | -33% | -43% | -48% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -66% | -52% | -46% | -40% | -46% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GM, F, RIVN, LCID, RUN. See TSLA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/23/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TSLA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.3% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 361 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 788 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Tesla's stock fell -38.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 62.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | TSLA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.5% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 49 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.3% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 361 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.0% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.6% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 788 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -60.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -43.7% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 77.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -46.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.7% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 369 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.2% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Tesla's stock fell -38.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 62.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is a global company headquartered in Austin, Texas, primarily focused on sustainable energy solutions through its electric vehicle and energy generation and storage businesses. Operating internationally, Tesla aims to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy.
The company's core business is divided into two main segments. The Automotive segment designs, develops, manufactures, leases, and sells a range of electric vehicles, including sedans and sport utility vehicles. This segment also provides a comprehensive ecosystem around its vehicles, including financing, a global Supercharger network for charging, maintenance services, vehicle insurance, and the sale of automotive regulatory credits. Its primary customers are individual consumers for vehicle purchases, financing, and related services, as well as third-party customers for specific products.
The Energy Generation and Storage segment focuses on developing, manufacturing, installing, and selling solar energy generation and energy storage products. This includes solar panels for energy generation and battery storage solutions like Powerwall and Megapack for various applications. Tesla provides related services, installations, and financing options for these products. This segment serves a diverse customer base, including residential, commercial, and industrial clients, as well as utilities, across its global markets.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Tesla (TSLA):
- It's like Apple for electric vehicles.
- Think of it as Amazon for cars and home energy.
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- Electric Vehicles: Tesla designs, develops, manufactures, and sells sedans and sport utility vehicles.
- Automotive Regulatory Credits: The company sells automotive regulatory credits to other manufacturers.
- Vehicle Services & Financing: Tesla provides non-warranty after-sales vehicle services, vehicle insurance, purchase financing, and leasing services.
- Solar Energy Systems: Tesla designs, manufactures, installs, sells, and leases solar energy generation products.
- Energy Storage Systems: The company designs, manufactures, installs, sells, and leases energy storage products.
- Energy Product Services: Tesla offers service, repairs, and various financing options for its solar and energy storage customers.
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Tesla (TSLA) sells primarily to individuals for its automotive products, though its energy segment serves both individuals and various types of organizations. Based on the company description, here are the major categories of customers it serves:
- Individual Consumers: This category includes individuals who purchase or lease Tesla's electric vehicles (sedans and SUVs) for personal use. It also covers residential customers who acquire Tesla's solar energy generation products (solar panels) and energy storage systems (e.g., Powerwall) for their homes.
- Commercial and Industrial Businesses: This category encompasses various businesses, from commercial enterprises to large industrial operations, that purchase Tesla's energy storage products (such as Powerpack and Megapack) and solar solutions for their facilities. While less explicitly detailed for vehicles, some businesses may also acquire Tesla vehicles for their corporate fleets.
- Utility Companies: Electric utility providers form a distinct customer category for Tesla's Energy Generation and Storage segment, particularly for large-scale energy storage projects (e.g., Megapack installations) designed to support grid stability, integrate renewable energy sources, and enhance overall power management.
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Elon Musk, Chief Executive Officer
Elon Musk is the CEO and a Director of Tesla. He co-founded Zip2, an online business directory, which was sold to Compaq in 1999. He also co-founded X.com, which merged to form PayPal, later acquired by eBay in 2002. Musk became an early investor in Tesla in 2004 and assumed leadership as CEO and product architect in 2008. His other ventures include founding SpaceX, The Boring Company, X Corp (formerly Twitter), Neuralink, and xAI. He was also the primary financial backer of SolarCity, which Tesla acquired in 2016.
Vaibhav Taneja, Chief Financial Officer
Vaibhav Taneja serves as Tesla's Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer. He joined Tesla in 2017 as Assistant Corporate Controller and steadily rose through the ranks, becoming Corporate Controller, Chief Accounting Officer, and then CFO in August 2023. Prior to joining Tesla, he was the Corporate Controller at SolarCity, a solar energy company acquired by Tesla in 2016. Taneja also spent 17 years at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in both India and the United States.
Tom Zhu, Senior Vice President, Automotive
Tom Zhu is the Senior Vice President of Automotive at Tesla, overseeing global automotive operations, including assembly plants and sales. He joined Tesla in 2014, initially leading the charging network development in China, and later served as the General Manager for Tesla in China. Zhu was instrumental in the rapid construction of Gigafactory Shanghai. Before his tenure at Tesla, he co-founded Kaibo Engineering Group Corp. and worked as a project manager, advising Chinese contractors on infrastructure projects in Africa.
Lars Moravy, Vice President, Vehicle Engineering
Lars Moravy holds the position of Vice President of Vehicle Engineering at Tesla. He joined the company in 2010. His roles at Tesla have included Director, Chassis Dynamics Engineering, and Senior Director, Chassis Dynamics and Vehicle Test Engineering. Moravy previously worked as a Suspension Design Engineer III, Chassis Design for Honda R&D. He leads a substantial team responsible for all aspects of Tesla vehicle hardware design, testing, validation, development, manufacturing, and supporting engineering tools.
Ashok Elluswamy, Vice President of AI
Ashok Elluswamy is Tesla's Vice President of AI and leads the company's Autopilot software team. He was the first engineer hired for the Autopilot team in 2014. Elluswamy holds a Master of Science degree in Robotic Systems Development from Carnegie Mellon University and a Bachelor's degree in Electronics and Communication Engineering from the College of Engineering, Guindy. His prior experience includes working as a Software Engineer at WABCO Vehicle Control Systems and a research internship at Volkswagen Electronic Research Lab, where he contributed to autonomous driving projects.
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Here are the key risks to Tesla's business:
- Intensifying Competition and Margin Erosion: Tesla faces significant challenges from intensifying competition in the electric vehicle (EV) market, particularly from established automakers and new entrants from China, such as BYD. This heightened competition has led to price cuts, declining market share, and reduced profitability for Tesla's core automotive business. For instance, Tesla reported significant declines in revenue and net income in Q1 2025, with revenue decreasing 9% year-over-year and net income falling 71%, largely attributed to reduced vehicle deliveries and lower average selling prices due to increased competition. Tesla's market share in the U.S. declined to 43.5% in Q1 2025 from 60% in 2020, and European sales also experienced a significant downturn. The company's operational margin dropped to 8.2% in Q4 2023 from 16% in Q4 2022, a decrease driven in part by intense competition and significant price cuts impacting profit margins.
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Safety Concerns related to Autonomous Driving (FSD/Autopilot): Tesla's advanced driver-assistance systems, Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD), are under ongoing investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) due to numerous incidents involving crashes, traffic violations, and concerns about their safety and advertised capabilities. These investigations cover millions of vehicles and have led to recalls, such as nearly 2 million U.S. vehicles in December 2023 following an NHTSA investigation into approximately 1,000 crashes involving its Autopilot system. There are concerns about FSD's ability to detect and respond appropriately in challenging environmental conditions, and reports of vehicles running red lights or steering against traffic. Legal and regulatory actions could lead to mandatory safety retrofits, litigation costs, reputational damage, and delays in the deployment of robotaxi services, which are crucial for Tesla's future valuation and growth narrative.
- Dependence on Elon Musk and Associated Reputational/Governance Risks: The success and public perception of Tesla are closely tied to its CEO, Elon Musk. His personal actions, political involvement, and divided attention across multiple ventures are increasingly seen as a liability for the company. Reports suggest that Musk's controversial statements and political alignment have alienated a significant portion of Tesla's core customer base, impacting sales in key markets like Europe and China. Critics also highlight concerns about Tesla's corporate governance structure, with the board largely composed of individuals with deep ties to Musk, raising questions about independent oversight. The company's reliance on Musk for strategic direction and investor confidence poses a significant risk if his focus is diverted or his reputation continues to negatively impact the brand.
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1. Intensified competition from a growing number of legacy automakers and new entrants releasing a wide range of competitive electric vehicles. This directly challenges Tesla's market share, pricing power, and perceived technological lead in a rapidly maturing EV market.
2. The increasing adoption of Tesla's North American Charging Standard (NACS) by other major automakers, which, while beneficial for the EV industry, erodes Tesla's proprietary Supercharger network advantage, a key differentiator and competitive moat.
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Addressable Markets for Tesla's Main Products and Services
Automotive Segment (Electric Vehicles)
The global electric vehicle (EV) market was estimated at approximately USD 1,328.08 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 6,523.97 billion by 2030, demonstrating a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 32.5% from 2025 to 2030. Another estimate values the global EV market at USD 988.70 billion in 2025, with a projection to increase to approximately USD 2,763.17 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 10.82% from 2026 to 2035. Global electric car sales exceeded 17 million units in 2024. In February 2026, global EV sales reached 1.1 million units.Energy Generation and Storage Segment
Solar Energy
The global solar energy market was valued at approximately USD 0.4 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1.6 trillion by 2034, with a CAGR of 15.2% from 2025 to 2034. Another source states the global solar power market size was valued at USD 273 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 436.36 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 6% during the forecast period. Global solar installations reached nearly 600 GW in 2024. The installed base of the solar energy market is expected to grow from 2.35 Terawatt in 2025 to 7.25 Terawatt by 2031, at a CAGR of 19.91% over 2026-2031.Energy Storage Systems
The global energy storage systems market was estimated at USD 668.7 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 5.12 trillion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 21.7% from 2025 to 2034. Alternatively, the global energy storage systems market size was estimated at USD 222,787.5 million in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 512,407.9 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 11% from 2023 to 2030. The global battery energy storage system (BESS) market alone is projected to grow from USD 50.81 billion in 2025 to USD 105.96 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 15.8%.AI Analysis | Feedback
For Tesla (TSLA), the following are expected drivers of future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion of Energy Generation and Storage Products: Tesla's Energy Generation and Storage segment, encompassing products like Megapack and Powerwall, is consistently cited as a significant growth area. The company has reported record deployments and a robust backlog for these products, with management anticipating increasing deployments. This segment is expected to contribute a growing portion of high-margin revenue.
- Growth of Full Self-Driving (FSD) Software Subscriptions: Tesla is actively transitioning its Full Self-Driving system to a subscription-based model. This strategic shift aims to generate recurring, high-margin software revenue by leveraging its substantial installed vehicle base and advancing its autonomous driving capabilities.
- Launch and Scaling of Robotaxi Service (Cybercab): The introduction and expansion of a dedicated Robotaxi service, including the Cybercab, are considered major catalysts for future revenue. Production of the Cybercab is anticipated to begin in April 2026, with expectations for it to become a high-volume model over the longer term. This service will be closely tied to the monetization of Tesla's autonomy software.
- Introduction of a More Affordable Electric Vehicle: Tesla plans to launch a more affordable electric vehicle, potentially priced around $25,000. This new model is expected to significantly broaden the company's customer base globally and drive substantial vehicle sales volume, especially in markets with increasing competition and demand for lower-priced EVs.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- Tesla has not made significant company-led share repurchases in the last 3-5 years, with buyback yields indicating minimal to no activity in this area.
Share Issuance
- Tesla's shares outstanding have generally increased between 2021 and 2025, from approximately 3.386 billion in December 2021 to 3.528 billion in December 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In January 2026, Tesla revealed plans to invest approximately $2 billion into xAI, an artificial intelligence company led by Elon Musk.
- This investment is intended to enhance Tesla's capability to develop and deploy AI products and services.
Capital Expenditures
- Tesla's capital expenditures have shown substantial growth, with approximately $6.514 billion in 2021, $7.163 billion in 2022, $8.899 billion in 2023, and peaking at $11.342 billion in 2024.
- For 2025, capital expenditures are reported around $8.5 billion.
- Future capital expenditures are anticipated to exceed $20 billion in 2026, with a primary focus on expanding manufacturing facilities for new products like Cybertruck and Semi, developing battery cell technologies, scaling AI initiatives and infrastructure (including the Dojo supercomputer), and ramping up Optimus robot production.
Peer Outperformance in Automobile Manufacturers
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -20.0% | 78.4% | 88.8% | CVSA 258% · PRDO 244% · LRN 138% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | -7.9% | 46.7% | 32.5% | PHM 155% · GRBK 154% · TOL 144% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 3.1% | 41.0% | 19.0% | RCL 238% · MAR 163% · HLT 150% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | -6.3% | 58.6% | -0.4% | SGI 42% · MHK -35% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -16.7% | 13.3% | -4.1% | HD -1% · LOW -4% · FND -65% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -12.9% | 14.1% | -8.6% | MUSA 210% · PAG 114% · ORLY 103% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -15.6% | 28.7% | -15.3% | HRB 138% · FTDR 93% · SCI 42% |
| Footwear | 9 | 61.8% | 36.9% | -20.4% | DECK 28% · SHOO 9% · CROX -20% |
| Distributors | 4 | -18.2% | -14.9% | -25.3% | ARMK 110% · GPC 7% · POOL -57% |
| Restaurants | 37 | -8.1% | -6.8% | -26.4% | EAT 309% · CAKE 188% · TXRH 102% |
| Apparel Retail | 26 | 1.5% | 0.5% | -40.2% | ANF 308% · TJX 143% · ROST 119% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -16.0% | -13.1% | -41.1% | GOLF 74% · HAS 60% · MAT -20% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 4.3% | 6.0% | -41.5% | |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 5.0% | 70.0% | -41.5% | BBY 7% · GME -42% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 8.1% | -2.1% | -43.1% | LTH 144% · OSW 119% · PLNT -34% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | -2.6% | 19.9% | -45.4% | RL 238% · TPR 225% · KTB 75% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 38 | -17.7% | -10.3% | -45.9% | MOD 1044% · GTX 200% · BWA 48% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -19.2% | -24.1% | -48.1% | MCRI 88% · BYD 14% · RRR 11% |
| Broadline Retail | 14 | -8.6% | 33.3% | -52.2% | EBAY 64% · AMZN 49% · OLLI 31% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 24 | -25.2% | -15.6% | -61.7% | ULTA 68% · ASO 46% · DKS 29% |
| Automobile Manufacturers ← | 8 | -80.3% | -45.2% | -72.2% | GM 37% · TSLA 23% · F -3% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -31.9% | -32.4% | -79.1% | GRMN 97% · SONO -45% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| TSLA Stock: 5 Impending Events That Could Invalidate the Thesis | 10/07/2026 | |
| Can This Number Push Tesla Stock Higher? | 09/26/2026 | |
| What Would It Take For Tesla Stock To Move Higher? | 09/25/2026 | |
| How Does Tesla Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 09/21/2026 | |
| Tesla Stock Adds Its Own Story, And Its Own Swings | 08/20/2026 | |
| Can You Stomach The Real Crashes In Tesla Stock? | 08/08/2026 | |
| The Debates That Matter For TSLA Stock | 08/06/2026 | |
| Tesla Stock Plummets 21% With 6-Day Losing Streak | 07/30/2026 | |
| Tesla Earnings Notes | 07/21/2026 | |
| Tesla Stock And The Growth Question Mark | 07/15/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Which Stocks Are Paying For $4.33 Gas? | 10/20/2026 | |
| Which Dates Could Move Tesla Stock Most? | 10/07/2026 | |
| How Bad Would A Cash Shortfall Be For Tesla Stock? | 10/02/2026 | |
| Should You Pay Up For Tesla’s Narrow Lead Over Its Peers? | 09/21/2026 | |
| Is Tesla Stock Priced For Its Earnings Or Its Robots? | 09/11/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 11.71 |
| Mkt Cap | 30.9 |
| Rev LTM | 54,726 |
| Op Inc LTM | -1,720 |
| FCF LTM | -2,211 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -3,000 |
| CFO LTM | -200 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -514 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 11.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -29.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -17.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -9.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -5.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -23.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -59.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -61.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 30.9 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 7.5 |
| P/EBIT | 6.1 |
| P/E | 2.1 |
| P/CFO | -0.3 |
| Total Yield | -5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -20.1% |
| D/E | 2.3 |
| Net D/E | 1.8 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -21.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -16.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -13.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 0.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -25.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -22.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -84.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $372.22 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1,206.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/29/2010 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -24.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $363.77 | $386.35 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 2.3% | -3.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 39.3% | 45.1% |
| Downside Capture | 201.35 | 242.52 |
| Upside Capture | 264.38 | 187.22 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 62.6% | 61.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.93 | 2.11 | 2.91 | 2.42 | 2.21 | 2.25 |
| Up Beta | 4.11 | 1.51 | 2.50 | 1.98 | 2.16 | 2.18 |
| Down Beta | 2.83 | 2.08 | 3.86 | 2.82 | 2.27 | 2.24 |
| Up Capture | 179% | 282% | 268% | 256% | 296% | 2143% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 30 | 64 | 127 | 382 |
| Down Capture | 124% | 170% | 301% | 237% | 165% | 113% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 20 | 34 | 62 | 125 | 369 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSLA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | -15.3% | 45.1% | -0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -4.1% | 19.2% | -0.35 | 67.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.8% | 12.7% | 0.80 | 62.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.8% | 28.5% | -0.11 | 25.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 52.1% | 20.7% | 1.91 | -11.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.3% | 13.9% | 0.06 | 1.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -24.8% | 43.5% | -0.54 | 37.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSLA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 7.3% | 59.8% | 0.35 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.5% | 24.1% | 0.14 | 76.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 58.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.9% | 0.73 | 6.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 19.5% | 0.37 | 6.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 31.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.7% | 51.7% | 0.29 | 35.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSLA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 40.6% | 59.4% | 0.82 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.2% | 22.2% | 0.50 | 63.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 50.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.59 | 7.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 18.1% | 0.38 | 15.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 30.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.4% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 19.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/24/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/21/2026 | -3.1% | ||
| 7/22/2026 | -14.5% | -20.2% | -7.7% |
| 4/22/2026 | -3.6% | -3.8% | 7.8% |
| 1/28/2026 | 0.1% | -2.1% | -5.2% |
| 10/22/2025 | 2.3% | 5.1% | -10.0% |
| 7/23/2025 | -8.2% | -4.1% | -3.7% |
| 4/22/2025 | 5.4% | 22.7% | 40.6% |
| 1/29/2025 | -2.3% | -1.5% | -29.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 11.0% | 23.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -8.4% | -9.7% |
| Max Positive | 21.9% | 26.7% | 59.0% |
| Max Negative | -14.5% | -20.2% | -29.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/21/2026 | -3.1% | ||
| 7/22/2026 | -14.5% | -20.2% | -7.7% |
| 4/22/2026 | -3.6% | -3.8% | 7.8% |
| 1/28/2026 | 0.1% | -2.1% | -5.2% |
| 10/22/2025 | 2.3% | 5.1% | -10.0% |
| 7/23/2025 | -8.2% | -4.1% | -3.7% |
| 4/22/2025 | 5.4% | 22.7% | 40.6% |
| 1/29/2025 | -2.3% | -1.5% | -29.2% |
| 10/23/2024 | 21.9% | 20.5% | 59.0% |
| 7/23/2024 | -12.3% | -9.6% | -9.4% |
| 4/23/2024 | 12.1% | 26.7% | 24.5% |
| 1/24/2024 | -0.6% | -8.4% | -5.6% |
| 10/18/2023 | -9.3% | -12.5% | -3.7% |
| 7/19/2023 | -9.7% | -9.2% | -24.7% |
| 4/19/2023 | -2.0% | -12.8% | -5.7% |
| 1/25/2023 | 0.4% | 20.4% | 40.4% |
| 10/19/2022 | 0.8% | 1.0% | -15.1% |
| 7/20/2022 | 9.8% | 11.0% | 22.4% |
| 4/20/2022 | 3.2% | -9.8% | -27.4% |
| 1/26/2022 | 2.1% | 1.4% | -12.8% |
| 10/20/2021 | 0.2% | 17.8% | 26.0% |
| 7/26/2021 | -2.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% |
| 4/2/2021 | 4.4% | 2.3% | 3.5% |
| 1/27/2021 | -2.1% | -1.2% | -22.7% |
| 10/21/2020 | 0.7% | -3.9% | 18.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 10 |
| # Negative | 12 | 13 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 11.0% | 23.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -8.4% | -9.7% |
| Max Positive | 21.9% | 26.7% | 59.0% |
| Max Negative | -14.5% | -20.2% | -29.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/30/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/31/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/22/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/29/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/30/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/31/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/24/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/07/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/25/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/08/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/26/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/28/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/9/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9092026 | 360.13 | 2,606 | 938,419 | 9,353,490 | Form |
| 2 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6092026 | 402.20 | 2,606 | 1,047,924 | 8,864,020 | Form |
| 3 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 450.00 | 3,000 | 1,350,000 | 8,147,925 | Form |
| 4 | Wilson-Thompson, Kathleen | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 378.11 | 26,409 | 9,985,390 | 18,299,931 | Form | |
| 5 | Wilson-Thompson, Kathleen | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 359.33 | 25,809 | 9,273,888 | 12,166,836 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9092026 | 360.13 | 2,606 | 938,419 | 9,353,490 | Form |
| 2 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6092026 | 402.20 | 2,606 | 1,047,924 | 8,864,020 | Form |
| 3 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 450.00 | 3,000 | 1,350,000 | 8,147,925 | Form |
| 4 | Wilson-Thompson, Kathleen | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 378.11 | 26,409 | 9,985,390 | 18,299,931 | Form | |
| 5 | Wilson-Thompson, Kathleen | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 359.33 | 25,809 | 9,273,888 | 12,166,836 | Form | |
| 6 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 397.03 | 2,264 | 899,077 | 7,188,842 | Form |
| 7 | Wilson-Thompson, Kathleen | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 415.56 | 25,731 | 10,692,814 | 8,173,680 | Form | |
| 8 | Murdoch, James R | JRM Rev. Trust | Sell | 1062026 | 445.40 | 60,000 | 26,723,781 | 257,007,505 | Form | |
| 9 | Musk, Kimbal | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 450.66 | 56,820 | 25,606,501 | 627,145,216 | Form | |
| 10 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 443.93 | 2,637 | 1,170,635 | 6,107,104 | Form |
| 11 | Murdoch, James R | JRM Rev. Trust | Sell | 9172025 | 422.68 | 60,000 | 25,360,800 | 269,260,263 | Form | |
| 12 | Musk, Elon | CEO | Trust | Buy | 9152025 | 389.28 | 2,568,732 | 999,959,042 | 160,914,364,612 | Form |
| 13 | Zhu, Xiaotong | SVP, APAC and | See Footnote | Sell | 9122025 | 363.75 | 20,000 | 7,275,100 | 17,314,647 | Form |
| 14 | Taneja, Vaibhav | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9092025 | 352.38 | 2,606 | 918,137 | 3,473,097 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 24, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aspiring Ventures, LLC | $163.1 Mil | 53.9% | 78 | ADD +30.8% | 13F |
| Sloy Dahl & Holst, LLC | $378.0 Mil | 51.9% | 112 | ADD +5.0% | 13F |
| Halter Ferguson Financial Inc. | $215.7 Mil | 47.7% | 36 | ADD +14.3% | 13F |
| Prime Capital Management Co Ltd | $267.6 Mil | 30.0% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| WIM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Ltd | $90.4 Mil | 26.8% | 20 | TRIM -12.3% | 13F |
| ExodusPoint Capital Management, LP | $1.8 Bil | 18.6% | 1363 | New | 13F |
| Privium Fund Management B.V. | $82.5 Mil | 17.2% | 60 | Hold | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $166.8 Mil | 17.1% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Hamilton Capital Partners, LLC | $51.0 Mil | 15.9% | 30 | ADD +101.7% | 13F |
| Hyperion Asset Management Ltd | $429.8 Mil | 13.7% | 18 | Hold | 13F |
| Bamco Inc /Ny/ | $4.4 Bil | 13.4% | 326 | Hold | 13F |
| Purpose Unlimited Inc. | $314.5 Mil | 13.0% | 824 | New | 13F |
| East Coast Asset Management, LLC. | $37.1 Mil | 12.2% | 68 | ADD +22.4% | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $207.9 Mil | 11.8% | 47 | ADD +7.9% | 13F |
| Straight Path Wealth Management | $44.0 Mil | 11.8% | 129 | Hold | 13F |
| KTF Investments, LLC | $60.1 Mil | 10.3% | 91 | Hold | 13F |
| Newlands Management Operations LLC | $1.4 Bil | 9.1% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $109.6 Mil | 8.8% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Boundless Plain Holdings Ltd | $25.0 Mil | 8.2% | 22 | ADD +49.1% | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $50.2 Mil | 7.0% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund | $74.1 Mil | 6.5% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 6.3% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Monolith Management Ltd | $15.5 Mil | 6.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Greenlea Lane Capital Management, LLC | $20.3 Mil | 5.9% | 9 | TRIM -11.9% | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $69.4 Mil | 5.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ExodusPoint Capital Management, LP | $1.8 Bil | 18.6% | 1363 | New | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 6.3% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Purpose Unlimited Inc. | $314.5 Mil | 13.0% | 824 | New | 13F |
| Scge Management, L.P. | $138.1 Mil | 4.2% | 21 | New | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $109.6 Mil | 8.8% | 25 | New | 13F |
| Strategy Capital LLC | $35.9 Mil | 2.9% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Monolith Management Ltd | $15.5 Mil | 6.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Howard Hughes Medical Institute | $15.3 Mil | 3.7% | 31 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $13.6 Mil | 4.6% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Matthew 25 Management Corp | $12.1 Mil | 4.0% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Once Capital Management, LLC | $11.9 Mil | 3.2% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Defender Capital, LLC. | $9.6 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Westwood Wealth Management | $7.9 Mil | 3.1% | 42 | New | 13F |
| M37 Management LP | $7.4 Mil | 3.0% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Hamilton Capital Partners, LLC | $51.0 Mil | 15.9% | 30 | ADD +101.7% | 13F |
| Boundless Plain Holdings Ltd | $25.0 Mil | 8.2% | 22 | ADD +49.1% | 13F |
| Aspiring Ventures, LLC | $163.1 Mil | 53.9% | 78 | ADD +30.8% | 13F |
| East Coast Asset Management, LLC. | $37.1 Mil | 12.2% | 68 | ADD +22.4% | 13F |
| Halter Ferguson Financial Inc. | $215.7 Mil | 47.7% | 36 | ADD +14.3% | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $207.9 Mil | 11.8% | 47 | ADD +7.9% | 13F |
| Sloy Dahl & Holst, LLC | $378.0 Mil | 51.9% | 112 | ADD +5.0% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caxton Associates LLP | $975.1 Mil | 19.3% | 750 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Three Seasons Wealth, LLC | $297.7 Mil | 28.4% | 199 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| RK Capital Management, LLC/FL | $205.4 Mil | 12.7% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Panoramic Hills Capital Ltd | $161.9 Mil | 56.8% | 3 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Pureheart Capital Pte Ltd. | $129.5 Mil | 30.6% | 3 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Elequin Capital, LP | $119.7 Mil | 15.6% | 392 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| O'Neil Global Advisors, Inc. | $45.7 Mil | 15.7% | 45 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Science & Technology Partners, L.P. | $24.9 Mil | 7.0% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Hel Ved Capital Management Ltd | $14.2 Mil | 4.9% | 49 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $30.2 Mil | 3.3% | 37 | TRIM -77.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| WIM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Ltd | $90.4 Mil | 26.8% | 20 | TRIM -12.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Greenlea Lane Capital Management, LLC | $20.3 Mil | 5.9% | 9 | TRIM -11.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bamco Inc /Ny/ | $4.4 Bil | 13.4% | 326 | Hold | 13F |
| ExodusPoint Capital Management, LP | $1.8 Bil | 18.6% | 1363 | New | 13F |
| Newlands Management Operations LLC | $1.4 Bil | 9.1% | 16 | Hold | 13F |
| H&H International Investment, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 6.3% | 19 | New | 13F |
| Hyperion Asset Management Ltd | $429.8 Mil | 13.7% | 18 | Hold | 13F |
| Sloy Dahl & Holst, LLC | $378.0 Mil | 51.9% | 112 | ADD +5.0% | 13F |
| Purpose Unlimited Inc. | $314.5 Mil | 13.0% | 824 | New | 13F |
| Prime Capital Management Co Ltd | $267.6 Mil | 30.0% | 7 | Hold | 13F |
| Halter Ferguson Financial Inc. | $215.7 Mil | 47.7% | 36 | ADD +14.3% | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $207.9 Mil | 11.8% | 47 | ADD +7.9% | 13F |
| UNICOM Systems, Inc. | $166.8 Mil | 17.1% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Aspiring Ventures, LLC | $163.1 Mil | 53.9% | 78 | ADD +30.8% | 13F |
| Scge Management, L.P. | $138.1 Mil | 4.2% | 21 | New | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $109.6 Mil | 8.8% | 25 | New | 13F |
| WIM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Ltd | $90.4 Mil | 26.8% | 20 | TRIM -12.3% | 13F |
| Privium Fund Management B.V. | $82.5 Mil | 17.2% | 60 | Hold | 13F |
| Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund | $74.1 Mil | 6.5% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $69.4 Mil | 5.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| KTF Investments, LLC | $60.1 Mil | 10.3% | 91 | Hold | 13F |
| Hamilton Capital Partners, LLC | $51.0 Mil | 15.9% | 30 | ADD +101.7% | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $50.2 Mil | 7.0% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Straight Path Wealth Management | $44.0 Mil | 11.8% | 129 | Hold | 13F |
| East Coast Asset Management, LLC. | $37.1 Mil | 12.2% | 68 | ADD +22.4% | 13F |
| Strategy Capital LLC | $35.9 Mil | 2.9% | 11 | New | 13F |
| CloudAlpha Capital Management Limited/Hong Kong | $30.2 Mil | 3.3% | 37 | TRIM -77.1% | 13F |
TSLA Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The investment case is shifting from vehicle sales to AI-driven services. While recent revenue was flat, leading indicators like a four-year high order backlog and accelerating software adoption are strong. Execution on a series of dated product launches over the next 6-12 months, including new autonomous driving software, is the critical path.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Manufacturing & Recurring Services(Vehicle Deliveries × ASP) + (Energy Deployments × ASP) + (FSD Subscribers × Subscription Fee) + Other Services Revenue Scaling high-margin, recurring software (FSD) and service (Robotaxi) revenues across the installed base of hardware (vehicles).
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes. Leading indicators for new AI-driven businesses are accelerating, while management claims core auto demand still exceeds supply.
- Exited Q3 with the highest vehicle order backlog in four years.
- FSD paid customers grew to over 1.7 million globally in Q3.
- Cumulative unsupervised Robotaxi miles grew 8x in the third quarter.
- Energy storage demand is 'extreme'; Megapacks nearly sold out for 2027.
- Energy segment gross margin expanded to 33.1% in Q3 from 20.4%.
PRIMARY RISK
The valuation assumes successful, simultaneous scaling of unproven, capital-intensive robotics and autonomy projects. Management acknowledges the Optimus ramp is 'intensely difficult,' and operating expenses are growing 43.4% year-over-year, far outpacing revenue, compressing operating margins to 3.5%.
- Operating margin compressed to 3.5% from 5.1% a year prior.
- Operating expenses grew 43.4% YoY, while TTM revenue grew 8.3%.
- Full-year 2026 capital expenditure guidance was revised down to ~$20 billion.
- Inventory grew 14.8% YoY while latest-quarter revenue declined -0.2%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Vehicle Deliveries | 486,532 vehicles for Q3 2026 - Stagnant | The trend shows a significant divergence between volume and value. While the company maintains high delivery volumes, the corresponding revenue growth has stalled and turned negative year-over-year, suggesting pricing pressure or an unfavorable mix shift. |
| FSD Paid Customers | over 1.7 million globally in Q3 2026 - Accelerating | While the company is adding paid customers each quarter, management stated that, more importantly, the FSD subscription sign-up rate in North America at the time of delivery was 20% higher in Q3 than in Q2, reaching over 75%. |
| Energy Storage Deployed | 13.7 GWh (Q3 2026) | Measures the volume of battery storage capacity deployed, indicating the growth of the high-demand Energy segment. |
| Cumulative Unsupervised Robotaxi Miles | Grew 8x in the quarter (Q3 2026) | Indicates the scaling and real-world experience of the company's autonomous ride-hailing network, a critical step toward commercialization. |
AI Inflection vs. Auto Saturation
BULL VIEW
Accelerating FSD adoption (>75% NA sign-up rate) and a 4-year high backlog show the AI pivot is creating new demand, making the -0.2% quarterly revenue dip a temporary production-constrained blip before the next growth wave.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating FSD adoption offset the auto segment's -0.2% revenue decline, which the market ignored post-earnings?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. Management's claim of a record backlog and supply constraints directly counters the auto saturation narrative, suggesting the slowdown is not demand-driven.
BEAR VIEW
The -0.2% revenue decline and a 15-point inventory-vs-revenue divergence signal a cyclical peak in the core auto business. The AI story is too early to offset this fundamental slowdown, which will pressure cash flow.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
by the end of this year, 2026 | Cybercab Customer Sales Start Watch: Company aims to begin selling Cybercab vehicles to customers. |
11/9/2026 | Peer and Macro Headwinds Watch: Peer commentary on EV demand, pricing, and input costs during their upcoming earnings reports. |
by the end of this year, but certainly by early next year | FSD Version Fifteen Release Watch: Company plans to release FSD software version 15 to customers. |
Q1 | European FSD Approval Watch: Company expects to receive EU-wide approval for Full Self-Driving (FSD). |
1/26/2027 | Decelerating Growth and Inventory Watch: Q4 revenue growth rate and inventory divergence in the next earnings report to confirm if deceleration persists. |
1/27/2027 | Peer General Motors Earnings Watch: General Motors (GM) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/8/2027 | Peer Ford Motor Earnings Watch: Ford Motor (F) is scheduled to report earnings. |
Q1 2027 | Delayed European FSD Approval Watch: Announcements from European regulators or Tesla regarding the status of the EU-wide FSD approval. |
No set date | Capital Spending Pullback Watch: Company updates on timelines for Terafab, Optimus production lines, and other factory ramps. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-02 | Third Quarter Deliveries Announced Details: The company announced it delivered over 486,000 vehicles and deployed 13.7 GWh of energy storage products in the third quarter. | +7.0% $354.11 -> $378.73 |
2026-09-14 | Safety Practices Scrutinized Details: Press reports highlighted a fatal Arizona crash from October 2025, alleging that Tesla withheld key details about its automated driving technology involved in the incident. | -2.4% $365.44 -> $356.58 |
2026-08-21 | Nevada Robotaxi Fleet Approved Details: The Nevada Transportation Authority approved Tesla's application to operate a fleet of up to 5,000 fully autonomous vehicles in the state for the first 12 months. | +1.1% $345.13 -> $348.95 |
2026-07-22 | Second Quarter Earnings Reported Details: The company reported strong Q2 vehicle growth, but profitability suffered from lower average selling prices and higher expenses. The stock reacted negatively, falling -16.0% over two days. | -15.6% $378.93 -> $319.69 |
2026-06-15 | Merger Speculation Intensified Details: An investment manager stated in a press report that a merger to combine SpaceX and Tesla is a 'forgone conclusion,' suggesting it was supporting Tesla's stock price. | -0.4% $406.43 -> $404.66 |
2026-05-21 | SpaceX IPO Filing Unveiled Details: News reports indicated that SpaceX unveiled its long-awaited initial public offering filing, intensifying scrutiny of the company's finances and its deep ties to Tesla. | +2.1% $417.26 -> $426.01 |
2026-04-22 | First Quarter Earnings Reported Details: Tesla released its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. The stock had a two-day reaction of -3.0% around the earnings call. | -3.3% $386.42 -> $373.72 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: TSLA trades at roughly 39% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 11% for the S&P 500 (3.6x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
GM - General Motors
Legacy Auto TurnaroundOffers exposure to the auto cycle with a much larger revenue base (1.8 times Tesla's) and a focus on its established truck portfolio, providing a different risk profile.
F - Ford Motor
Commercial Vehicle LeaderFord Pro's leadership in commercial vehicles offers a distinct, less consumer-discretionary customer base. Its ecosystem of vehicles, software, and services targets total cost of ownership.
Tesla is an AI-driven robotics and energy infrastructure company whose primary products are currently wheeled robots (cars) that are funding the development of bipedal robots (Optimus) and a global autonomous transportation network.
The investment thesis is no longer about EV market share, but about the successful execution of a massive pivot to AI and autonomy. The core automotive business serves as a cash-generating platform to fund capital-intensive, high-risk, high-reward ventures in Robotaxi, humanoid robots, and the underlying AI compute infrastructure. Success hinges on scaling these new businesses and navigating significant regulatory and technological hurdles.
Sustained exponential growth in unsupervised Robotaxi miles, widespread regulatory approvals for FSD, successful commercial launch and production ramp of Optimus, and continued high FSD attach rates.
A major safety incident involving an autonomous vehicle leading to regulatory crackdown, failure to solve core AI or robotics challenges, significant delays in new product ramps, or a sharp downturn in the core auto business that curtails investment capacity.
Short-term fluctuations in quarterly vehicle deliveries or automotive gross margins, which can be affected by logistics, regional mix, and commodity prices.
Repricing Catalyst
The scaling of the Robotaxi service from a limited launch to a significant, revenue-generating business, and the transition of the Optimus robot from R&D to a commercial product generating revenue.
Automotive
$90.8B TTM (88% of Total)What It Is
This segment sells electric vehicles (Model 3, Y, S, X, Cybertruck, Semi) directly to consumers and businesses. It also includes revenue from automotive regulatory credits, leasing, used vehicle sales, non-warranty maintenance, paid Supercharging sessions, and insurance.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and commercial entities purchase or lease vehicles for personal or fleet transportation, attracted by performance, styling, technology, and lower ownership costs. A growing number of owners pay for FSD subscriptions to access advanced driver-assistance features and future autonomous capabilities.
Competition
Energy Generation and Storage
$12.8B TTM (12% of Total)What It Is
This segment sells and leases lithium-ion battery energy storage products (Powerwall for residential/small commercial, Megapack for large-scale use) and energy generation systems (solar panels, Solar Roof) to residential, commercial, industrial, and utility customers.
Who Pays & How
Customers pay to reduce energy costs, provide backup power, and stabilize the electric grid. Utilities and commercial clients use Megapacks to manage grid load, especially with the rapid growth of AI infrastructure.
Competition
Tesla — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Automobile Manufacturers Resources |
| MotorTrend |
| Car and Driver |
| The Drive |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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