Rivian Automotive (RIVN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.63 | Market Cap: $21.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Rivian Automotive (RIVN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.63Market Cap: $21.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.7% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.4 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -58% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include EV Manufacturing, EV Charging Infrastructure, and Autonomous Driving Technology. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -24% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include EV Manufacturing, EV Charging Infrastructure, and Autonomous Driving Technology. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.7% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.4 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -58% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -24% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RIVN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Rivian Automotive (RIVN) experienced significant movement during the period from late August 2025 to early December 2025. This period saw a general upward trend in the stock, with a reported surge of over 30% in November 2025 following its Q3 earnings report.
Here are five key points that contributed to Rivian's stock movement during this time:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Report: Rivian exceeded Wall Street's expectations for the third quarter of 2025, reporting a 78% year-over-year surge in revenue to $1.56 billion. The company also achieved a significant milestone by posting a positive gross profit of $24 million for the quarter, a sharp turnaround from predicted losses. This strong financial performance was a major factor in the stock's surge in November 2025.
2. Volkswagen Joint Venture Contributions: A joint venture with Volkswagen played a crucial role in Rivian's profit gains and improved margins. This collaboration, particularly in software development, contributed significantly to Rivian's software and services gross profit. Volkswagen's plans to inject an additional $1 billion into Rivian upon successful completion of winter tests for the new software system also bolstered investor confidence.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RIVN Return | - | - | -82% | 27% | -43% | 30% | -83% |
| Peers Return | 4% | 10% | -7% | 15% | -9% | 7% | 19% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RIVN Win Rate | - | 0% | 42% | 58% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 30% | 33% | 22% | 28% | 30% | 35% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RIVN Max Drawdown | - | - | -83% | -35% | -64% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -3% | -18% | -11% | -11% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OSK, THO, HOG, EMPD, SBLX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RIVN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1333.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
Compare to OSK, THO, HOG, EMPD, SBLX
In The Past
Rivian Automotive's stock fell -93.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -93.0% loss requires a 1333.4% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Why Rivian Automotive Stock Jumped 40%? | |||
| What Could Send Rivian Automotive Stock Soaring | |||
| Triggers That Could Ignite the Next Rally In Rivian Automotive Stock | |||
| What Could Spark the Rivian Automotive Stock's Next Big Move | |||
| 3 Forces That Could Shake Rivian Automotive Stock | |||
| Rivian Automotive Stock Surges 13% In A Single Week, Should You Buy The Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Can Rivian Automotive Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return | ||
| Is Rivian Automotive Stock Outperforming Its Rivals? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Rivian Automotive (RIVN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Rivian Automotive (RIVN) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Rivian’s Model 3 Moment: How The Stock Can 2x | December 3rd, 2025 | ||
| Rivian Automotive Stock Surged 40%, Here’s Why | November 11th, 2025 | ||
| How Rivian Stock Doubles To $30 | November 10th, 2025 | ||
| What Could Spark the Rivian Automotive Stock’s Next Big Move | November 8th, 2025 | ||
| Buy or Sell Rivian Automotive Stock? | November 6th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RIVN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Rivian Automotive
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 20.98 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| Rev LTM | 5,250 |
| Op Inc LTM | 141 |
| FCF LTM | 189 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 148 |
| CFO LTM | 564 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 290 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -3.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -27.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -54.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -31.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -1.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -46.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 6.8 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 6.8 |
| P/E | 9.6 |
| P/CFO | 8.3 |
| Total Yield | 7.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -7.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -13.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -7.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -80.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8112022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5112022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3312022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |