Tearsheet

Rivian Automotive (RIVN)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $18.06 | Market Cap: $22.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers

Rivian Automotive (RIVN)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $18.06
Market Cap: $22.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automobile Manufacturers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.3%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.4 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -58%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include EV Manufacturing, EV Charging Infrastructure, and Autonomous Driving Technology.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -24%
3   Key risks
RIVN key risks include [1] a history of significant financial losses and high cash burn as it scales operations, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include EV Manufacturing, EV Charging Infrastructure, and Autonomous Driving Technology.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.3%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -107%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 12%
6 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.4 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -58%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -24%
9 Key risks
RIVN key risks include [1] a history of significant financial losses and high cash burn as it scales operations, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RIVN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining Rivian Automotive's (RIVN) stock movement by 31.9% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 17, 2025:

1. Rivian's Autonomy & AI Day Boosted Investor Confidence. The company's inaugural Autonomy & AI Day on December 11-12, 2025, where Rivian unveiled proprietary silicon chips, a next-generation autonomy platform, and a comprehensive AI integration strategy, significantly contributed to a surge in its stock price and bolstered investor confidence.

2. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Exceeded Expectations. In early November, Rivian reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, which surpassed Wall Street expectations with stronger-than-anticipated revenue and the company's second consecutive quarter of gross profit, positively influencing the stock's performance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RIVN Return-82%27%-43%41%
Peers Return127%-58%22%18%15%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RIVN Win Rate0%42%58%42%58% 
Peers Win Rate60%65%29%46%52%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RIVN Max Drawdown-83%-35%-64%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-7%-62%-22%-29%-34% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TSLA, F, GM, LCID.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/16/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRIVNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-93.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1333.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to OSK, THO, HOG, EMPD, SBLX


In The Past

Rivian Automotive's stock fell -93.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -93.0% loss requires a 1333.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Rivian Automotive (RIVN)

Better Bets than Rivian Automotive (RIVN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RIVN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
12.8%12.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
5.4%5.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.3%15.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Rivian Automotive

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RIVNTSLAFGMLCIDMedian
NameRivian A.Tesla Ford Mot.General .Lucid  
Mkt Price17.90489.8813.6781.7611.5217.90
Mkt Cap21.81,580.854.477.23.654.4
Rev LTM5,83595,633189,588187,4351,06695,633
Op Inc LTM-3,4134,8683,6198,078-3,1703,619
FCF LTM-4896,83411,897-1,749-3,383-489
FCF 3Y Avg-3,9454,7197,967-2,949-3,267-2,949
CFO LTM1,08515,74820,42624,212-2,54915,748
CFO 3Y Avg-2,70914,13016,30622,252-2,39114,130

Growth & Margins

RIVNTSLAFGMLCIDMedian
NameRivian A.Tesla Ford Mot.General .Lucid  
Rev Chg LTM28.2%-1.6%3.7%2.6%45.9%3.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg103.0%9.3%7.8%8.6%45.2%9.3%
Rev Chg Q78.3%11.6%9.4%-0.3%68.3%11.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM13.3%3.1%2.3%-0.1%14.7%3.1%
Op Mgn LTM-58.5%5.1%1.9%4.3%-297.5%1.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-113.0%8.3%2.7%5.8%-384.2%2.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM11.4%-1.1%0.3%-1.4%25.3%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM18.6%16.5%10.8%12.9%-239.2%12.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-69.0%14.7%8.9%12.3%-296.8%8.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-8.4%7.1%6.3%-0.9%-317.5%-0.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-95.2%4.9%4.3%-1.6%-406.8%-1.6%

Valuation

RIVNTSLAFGMLCIDMedian
NameRivian A.Tesla Ford Mot.General .Lucid  
Mkt Cap21.81,580.854.477.23.654.4
P/S3.115.00.30.37.03.1
P/EBIT-5.5205.97.310.3-3.47.3
P/E-5.0282.610.118.9-3.310.1
P/CFO16.591.12.32.4-2.92.4
Total Yield-20.0%0.4%13.6%6.4%-30.7%0.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%3.8%1.1%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-24.9%0.5%17.2%-5.8%-36.0%-5.8%
D/E0.40.03.52.30.40.4
Net D/E-0.0-0.02.61.80.10.1

Returns

RIVNTSLAFGMLCIDMedian
NameRivian A.Tesla Ford Mot.General .Lucid  
1M Rtn18.5%21.2%3.6%16.2%-18.9%16.2%
3M Rtn25.0%16.2%19.1%40.1%-41.6%19.1%
6M Rtn33.7%54.9%34.5%70.1%-46.4%34.5%
12M Rtn16.7%5.8%46.9%58.1%-57.8%16.7%
3Y Rtn-20.4%226.1%43.1%133.4%-84.4%43.1%
1M Excs Rtn17.5%20.2%2.7%15.2%-19.9%15.2%
3M Excs Rtn23.8%12.0%15.6%36.5%-46.4%15.6%
6M Excs Rtn20.0%41.2%20.8%56.5%-60.1%20.8%
12M Excs Rtn13.7%4.8%28.9%45.6%-67.0%13.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-107.3%100.8%-41.3%47.5%-159.6%-41.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Single Segment4,4341,65855 
Total4,4341,65855 


Assets by Segment
$ Mil2024202320222021
Single Segment   4,602
Total   4,602


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity149,640,047
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-5.4%
Average Daily Volume39,991,588
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.74
Basic Shares Quantity1,220,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/4/202523.4%44.2%43.6%
8/5/2025-4.2%-1.5%12.8%
5/6/2025-5.8%10.1%2.1%
2/20/2025-4.7%-14.8%-14.8%
11/7/20245.4%2.6%43.8%
8/6/2024-6.9%-8.5%-7.2%
5/7/20240.2%9.2%14.5%
2/21/2024-25.6%-26.6%-27.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive567
# Negative11109
Median Positive5.4%9.7%12.8%
Median Negative-6.9%-9.8%-7.2%
Max Positive23.4%44.2%43.8%
Max Negative-25.6%-26.6%-32.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024224202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022811202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022511202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021331202210-K 12/31/2021