Tearsheet

Rivian Automotive (RIVN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.63 | Market Cap: $21.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers

Rivian Automotive (RIVN)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $17.63
Market Cap: $21.5 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automobile Manufacturers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.7%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.4 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -58%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112%
Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include EV Manufacturing, EV Charging Infrastructure, and Autonomous Driving Technology.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -24%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 28%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving. Themes include EV Manufacturing, EV Charging Infrastructure, and Autonomous Driving Technology.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.7%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -49%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -112%
5 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
6 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.4 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -58%
7 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.4%
8 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -24%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RIVN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The stock of Rivian Automotive (RIVN) experienced significant movement during the period from late August 2025 to early December 2025. This period saw a general upward trend in the stock, with a reported surge of over 30% in November 2025 following its Q3 earnings report. Here are five key points that contributed to Rivian's stock movement during this time: 1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Report: Rivian exceeded Wall Street's expectations for the third quarter of 2025, reporting a 78% year-over-year surge in revenue to $1.56 billion. The company also achieved a significant milestone by posting a positive gross profit of $24 million for the quarter, a sharp turnaround from predicted losses. This strong financial performance was a major factor in the stock's surge in November 2025.

2. Volkswagen Joint Venture Contributions: A joint venture with Volkswagen played a crucial role in Rivian's profit gains and improved margins. This collaboration, particularly in software development, contributed significantly to Rivian's software and services gross profit. Volkswagen's plans to inject an additional $1 billion into Rivian upon successful completion of winter tests for the new software system also bolstered investor confidence.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RIVN Return---82%27%-43%30%-83%
Peers Return4%10%-7%15%-9%7%19%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RIVN Win Rate-0%42%58%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate30%33%22%28%30%35% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RIVN Max Drawdown---83%-35%-64%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-3%-18%-11%-11%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: OSK, THO, HOG, EMPD, SBLX.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRIVNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-93.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1333.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days

Compare to OSK, THO, HOG, EMPD, SBLX


In The Past

Rivian Automotive's stock fell -93.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/16/2021. A -93.0% loss requires a 1333.4% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Rivian Automotive (RIVN)

Better Bets than Rivian Automotive (RIVN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RIVN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Rivian Automotive

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RIVNOSKTHOHOGEMPDSBLXMedian
NameRivian A.Oshkosh Thor Ind.Harley-D.Empery D.StableX . 
Mkt Price17.53128.1599.7624.434.963.1120.98
Mkt Cap21.48.25.32.9--6.8
Rev LTM5,83510,3329,5794,665405,250
Op Inc LTM-3,413957299554-24-18141
FCF LTM-489755455392-15-13189
FCF 3Y Avg-3,945316545546-23-21148
CFO LTM1,085974578550-15-13564
CFO 3Y Avg-2,709599702736-23-19290

Growth & Margins

RIVNOSKTHOHOGEMPDSBLXMedian
NameRivian A.Oshkosh Thor Ind.Harley-D.Empery D.StableX . 
Rev Chg LTM28.2%-2.5%-4.6%-16.0%-1.2%-87.2%-3.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg103.0%9.9%-15.4%-5.7%-0.7%-53.0%-3.2%
Rev Chg Q78.3%-1.9%-0.4%16.5%-25.3%-100.0%-1.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM13.3%-0.5%-0.1%4.2%-6.4%-71.2%-0.3%
Op Mgn LTM-58.5%9.3%3.1%11.9%-674.5%-27,779.9%-27.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-113.0%9.2%4.2%12.0%-795.9%-11,400.6%-54.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM11.4%-0.0%-0.3%7.7%1.4%-18,327.3%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM18.6%9.4%6.0%11.8%-430.4%-20,878.1%7.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-69.0%6.0%6.8%13.6%-722.0%-8,917.3%-31.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-8.4%7.3%4.7%8.4%-437.8%-20,935.3%-1.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-95.2%3.1%5.2%10.1%-740.5%-9,100.6%-46.0%

Valuation

RIVNOSKTHOHOGEMPDSBLXMedian
NameRivian A.Oshkosh Thor Ind.Harley-D.Empery D.StableX . 
Mkt Cap21.48.25.32.9--6.8
P/S3.10.80.50.7--0.8
P/EBIT-5.58.513.65.1--6.8
P/E-5.012.518.26.7--9.6
P/CFO16.58.58.16.1--8.3
Total Yield-20.0%9.6%5.5%17.5%--7.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.5%0.0%2.6%--0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-24.9%4.1%10.6%12.4%--7.3%
D/E0.40.10.21.5--0.3
Net D/E-0.00.10.11.0--0.1

Returns

RIVNOSKTHOHOGEMPDSBLXMedian
NameRivian A.Oshkosh Thor Ind.Harley-D.Empery D.StableX . 
1M Rtn32.9%6.1%-4.4%-9.9%-27.7%-26.3%-7.1%
3M Rtn21.4%-6.1%-7.8%-16.4%-30.6%-41.1%-12.1%
6M Rtn25.1%26.5%17.3%0.2%--21.2%
12M Rtn47.6%15.8%-5.9%-25.9%--5.0%
3Y Rtn-44.1%48.1%17.5%-45.5%---13.3%
1M Excs Rtn32.9%6.1%-4.3%-9.9%-27.7%-26.3%-7.1%
3M Excs Rtn22.6%-12.9%-15.6%-24.0%-33.0%-39.2%-19.8%
6M Excs Rtn10.4%11.7%2.6%-14.5%--6.5%
12M Excs Rtn29.8%1.2%-22.1%-39.0%---10.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-111.6%-24.1%-48.7%-117.6%---80.2%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity158,243,169
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120257.0%
Average Daily Volume84,519,578
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.87
Basic Shares Quantity1,220,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares13.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251104202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024224202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022811202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022511202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021331202210-K 12/31/2021