Tearsheet

Lucid (LCID)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.61 | Market Cap: $4.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers

Lucid (LCID)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $13.61
Market Cap: $4.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automobile Manufacturers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -119%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -159%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.2 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -297%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include EV Manufacturing, and Advanced Battery Components.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.0x
2   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -239%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -317%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -35%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include EV Manufacturing, and Advanced Battery Components.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -119%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -159%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.2 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -297%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.0x
6 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -239%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -317%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -35%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LCID Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, several key factors contributed to the decline in Lucid (LCID) stock.

1. Reverse Stock Split. Lucid Group completed a 1-for-10 reverse stock split on September 2, 2025, with adjustments to shareholder ownership becoming effective after the market closed on August 29, 2025. This action, often taken to boost a company's share price and maintain Nasdaq compliance, typically leads to a significant drop in stock value shortly after the announcement and implementation due to investor concerns.

2. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. Announced on November 5, 2025, Lucid's third-quarter results revealed that the company missed analyst estimates for both revenue and adjusted earnings per share. Although revenue increased by 68% compared to Q3 2024, the reported $336.6 million fell short of expectations, and the adjusted loss of $2.65 per share was wider than anticipated.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LCID Return-280%-82%-38%-28%-57%-87%
Peers Return168%-1%-6%17%14%7%254%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LCID Win Rate67%50%25%25%33%40% 
Peers Win Rate23%18%23%32%28%37% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LCID Max Drawdown-0%-84%-45%-52%-61% 
Peers Max Drawdown-13%-16%-33%-19%-22%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RIVN, CAAS, EMPD, SBLX, TSLA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLCIDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-93.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1445.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-2.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven45 days148 days

Compare to RIVN, CAAS, EMPD, SBLX, TSLA


In The Past

Lucid's stock fell -93.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/18/2021. A -93.5% loss requires a 1445.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Lucid (LCID)

Better Bets than Lucid (LCID)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LCID. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Lucid

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LCIDRIVNCAASEMPDSBLXTSLAMedian
NameLucid Rivian A.China Au.Empery D.StableX .Tesla  
Mkt Price13.5617.534.124.963.11446.749.26
Mkt Cap4.221.40.1--1,441.612.8
Rev LTM1,0665,8356964095,633881
Op Inc LTM-3,170-3,41346-24-184,868-21
FCF LTM-3,383-489-3-15-136,834-14
FCF 3Y Avg-3,267-3,9455-23-214,719-22
CFO LTM-2,5491,08550-15-1315,74818
CFO 3Y Avg-2,391-2,70937-23-1914,130-21

Growth & Margins

LCIDRIVNCAASEMPDSBLXTSLAMedian
NameLucid Rivian A.China Au.Empery D.StableX .Tesla  
Rev Chg LTM45.9%28.2%17.1%-1.2%-87.2%-1.6%7.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg45.2%103.0%11.0%-0.7%-53.0%9.3%10.1%
Rev Chg Q68.3%78.3%11.1%-25.3%-100.0%11.6%11.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM14.7%13.3%2.6%-6.4%-71.2%3.1%2.9%
Op Mgn LTM-297.5%-58.5%6.6%-674.5%-27,779.9%5.1%-178.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-384.2%-113.0%6.1%-795.9%-11,400.6%8.3%-248.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM25.3%11.4%0.3%1.4%-18,327.3%-1.1%0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM-239.2%18.6%7.1%-430.4%-20,878.1%16.5%-116.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-296.8%-69.0%6.1%-722.0%-8,917.3%14.7%-182.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-317.5%-8.4%-0.4%-437.8%-20,935.3%7.1%-162.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-406.8%-95.2%0.9%-740.5%-9,100.6%4.9%-251.0%

Valuation

LCIDRIVNCAASEMPDSBLXTSLAMedian
NameLucid Rivian A.China Au.Empery D.StableX .Tesla  
Mkt Cap4.221.40.1--1,441.612.8
P/S7.03.10.2--15.05.0
P/EBIT-3.4-5.52.5--205.9-0.4
P/E-3.3-5.04.2--282.60.5
P/CFO-2.916.52.5--91.19.5
Total Yield-30.7%-20.0%42.0%--0.4%-9.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%18.2%--0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-36.0%-24.9%3.7%--0.5%-12.2%
D/E0.40.41.3--0.00.4
Net D/E0.1-0.00.4---0.00.0

Returns

LCIDRIVNCAASEMPDSBLXTSLAMedian
NameLucid Rivian A.China Au.Empery D.StableX .Tesla  
1M Rtn-18.5%32.9%-2.8%-27.7%-26.3%-4.6%-11.6%
3M Rtn-19.2%21.4%-4.6%-30.6%-41.1%33.7%-11.9%
6M Rtn-39.2%25.1%-3.1%--34.5%11.0%
12M Rtn-36.0%47.6%-5.9%--27.1%10.6%
3Y Rtn-86.6%-44.1%-31.7%--129.3%-37.9%
1M Excs Rtn-18.5%32.9%-2.8%-27.7%-26.3%-4.6%-11.5%
3M Excs Rtn-21.4%22.6%-13.0%-33.0%-39.2%26.6%-17.2%
6M Excs Rtn-53.9%10.4%-17.8%--19.8%-3.7%
12M Excs Rtn-51.3%29.8%-20.8%--15.9%-2.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-159.0%-111.6%-93.2%--71.4%-102.4%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity43,886,039
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120257.0%
Average Daily Volume11,182,618
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.92
Basic Shares Quantity312,166,297
Short % of Basic Shares14.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021