Tearsheet

Lucid (LCID)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $12.775 | Market Cap: $4.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers

Lucid (LCID)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $12.775
Market Cap: $4.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automobile Manufacturers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -122%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -159%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.2 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -297%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include EV Manufacturing, and Advanced Battery Components.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -239%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -317%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -35%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include EV Manufacturing, and Advanced Battery Components.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -122%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -159%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14%
4 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.2 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -297%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -239%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -317%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -35%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LCID Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -36.7% movement in Lucid (LCID) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 15, 2025: **1. Morgan Stanley Downgrade and Reduced Price Target.**

In December 2025, Morgan Stanley downgraded Lucid stock to "Underweight" from "Equal Weight" and significantly cut its price target from $30 to $10. This revision reflected a bearish outlook on the company's future performance. **2. Prolonged Path to Profitability and Continued Operating Losses.**

Analysts, including Morgan Stanley, projected that Lucid would not achieve gross profitability until at least 2028 and would continue to face substantial operating losses through 2031. Despite increases in production and revenue in Q3 2025, the company continued to report significant net losses. **3. Risk of Shareholder Dilution Due to Capital Needs.**

Concerns about shareholder dilution emerged as Morgan Stanley estimated Lucid would need to raise approximately $2 billion in equity by the second half of 2026 to fund its operations. Additionally, Lucid issued $975 million in new convertible senior notes, which, while extending debt maturity, added to the potential for future dilution. **4. Reduced 2025 Production Guidance.**

After its second-quarter earnings report in August 2025, Lucid cut its full-year 2025 production guidance from an initial 20,000 vehicles to a range of 18,000-20,000 units. This downward revision was attributed to a continuously changing market environment and other macroeconomic challenges, signaling potential difficulties in scaling production. **5. Broader EV Market Headwinds and Expired Tax Credits.**

The electric vehicle market faced broader slowdowns, partly due to the expiration of federal EV tax credits in the US in September 2025. This policy change effectively increased the cost of high-end EVs for consumers, contributing to a general slowdown in demand that impacted Lucid.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LCID Return280%-82%-38%-28%-58%
Peers Return-58%38%14%34%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LCID Win Rate67%50%25%25%33%33% 
Peers Win Rate52%33%54%54%63% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LCID Max Drawdown0%-84%-45%-52%-61% 
Peers Max Drawdown-61%-19%-32%-24% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TSLA, RIVN, GM, F.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLCIDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-93.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1445.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-2.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven2.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven45 days148 days

Compare to RIVN, CAAS, EMPD, SBLX, TSLA


In The Past

Lucid's stock fell -93.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/18/2021. A -93.5% loss requires a 1445.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Lucid (LCID)

Better Bets than Lucid (LCID)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LCID. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
15.2%15.2%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.1%1.1%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.9%17.9%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Lucid

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LCIDTSLARIVNGMFMedian
NameLucid Tesla Rivian A.General .Ford Mot. 
Mkt Price12.54458.9618.4280.8913.7618.42
Mkt Cap3.91,481.122.576.454.854.8
Rev LTM1,06695,6335,835187,435189,58895,633
Op Inc LTM-3,1704,868-3,4138,0783,6193,619
FCF LTM-3,3836,834-489-1,74911,897-489
FCF 3Y Avg-3,2674,719-3,945-2,9497,967-2,949
CFO LTM-2,54915,7481,08524,21220,42615,748
CFO 3Y Avg-2,39114,130-2,70922,25216,30614,130

Growth & Margins

LCIDTSLARIVNGMFMedian
NameLucid Tesla Rivian A.General .Ford Mot. 
Rev Chg LTM45.9%-1.6%28.2%2.6%3.7%3.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg45.2%9.3%103.0%8.6%7.8%9.3%
Rev Chg Q68.3%11.6%78.3%-0.3%9.4%11.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM14.7%3.1%13.3%-0.1%2.3%3.1%
Op Mgn LTM-297.5%5.1%-58.5%4.3%1.9%1.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-384.2%8.3%-113.0%5.8%2.7%2.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM25.3%-1.1%11.4%-1.4%0.3%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM-239.2%16.5%18.6%12.9%10.8%12.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-296.8%14.7%-69.0%12.3%8.9%8.9%
FCF/Rev LTM-317.5%7.1%-8.4%-0.9%6.3%-0.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-406.8%4.9%-95.2%-1.6%4.3%-1.6%

Valuation

LCIDTSLARIVNGMFMedian
NameLucid Tesla Rivian A.General .Ford Mot. 
Mkt Cap3.91,481.122.576.454.854.8
P/S7.015.03.10.30.33.1
P/EBIT-3.4205.9-5.510.37.37.3
P/E-3.3282.6-5.018.910.110.1
P/CFO-2.991.116.52.42.32.4
Total Yield-30.7%0.4%-20.0%6.4%13.6%0.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%3.8%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-36.0%0.5%-24.9%-5.8%17.2%-5.8%
D/E0.40.00.42.33.50.4
Net D/E0.1-0.0-0.01.82.60.1

Returns

LCIDTSLARIVNGMFMedian
NameLucid Tesla Rivian A.General .Ford Mot. 
1M Rtn-11.7%13.5%21.9%14.9%4.3%13.5%
3M Rtn-34.9%15.9%36.8%38.5%19.2%19.2%
6M Rtn-40.3%41.1%37.3%67.0%35.2%37.3%
12M Rtn-51.4%5.2%28.2%55.6%42.2%28.2%
3Y Rtn-83.2%191.1%-23.2%121.9%34.0%34.0%
1M Excs Rtn-24.1%6.9%5.5%13.2%2.6%5.5%
3M Excs Rtn-40.0%8.7%32.2%34.3%16.0%16.0%
6M Excs Rtn-54.5%26.9%23.0%52.8%21.0%23.0%
12M Excs Rtn-60.0%1.3%17.9%41.8%26.8%17.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-159.0%90.2%-107.6%46.3%-40.3%-40.3%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity44,135,215
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520250.6%
Average Daily Volume8,042,892
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.49
Basic Shares Quantity312,166,297
Short % of Basic Shares14.1%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/6/2025-8.4%-10.9%-31.9%
7/2/20252.9%11.7%17.6%
4/2/2025-3.3%6.2%5.4%
1/6/20251.2%-8.5%-11.6%
10/7/20242.4%1.8%-32.9%
7/8/20247.8%45.1%2.4%
4/9/20242.3%-8.0%-0.8%
1/11/2024-4.4%-22.3%3.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive865
# Negative81011
Median Positive3.2%9.0%5.4%
Median Negative-7.3%-12.3%-12.8%
Max Positive23.7%45.1%26.5%
Max Negative-13.8%-22.3%-32.9%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025805202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023807202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023508202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021