Lucid (LCID)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $12.775 | Market Cap: $4.0 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers
Lucid (LCID)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $12.775Market Cap: $4.0 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automobile Manufacturers
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -122%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -159% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.2 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -297% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include EV Manufacturing, and Advanced Battery Components. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -239%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -317% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -35% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Battery Technology & Metals. Themes include EV Manufacturing, and Advanced Battery Components. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -122%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -159% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 14% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.2 Bil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -297% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -239%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -317% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -35% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LCID Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -36.7% movement in Lucid (LCID) stock between August 31, 2025, and December 15, 2025:
**1. Morgan Stanley Downgrade and Reduced Price Target.**
In December 2025, Morgan Stanley downgraded Lucid stock to "Underweight" from "Equal Weight" and significantly cut its price target from $30 to $10. This revision reflected a bearish outlook on the company's future performance.
**2. Prolonged Path to Profitability and Continued Operating Losses.**
Analysts, including Morgan Stanley, projected that Lucid would not achieve gross profitability until at least 2028 and would continue to face substantial operating losses through 2031. Despite increases in production and revenue in Q3 2025, the company continued to report significant net losses.
**3. Risk of Shareholder Dilution Due to Capital Needs.**
Concerns about shareholder dilution emerged as Morgan Stanley estimated Lucid would need to raise approximately $2 billion in equity by the second half of 2026 to fund its operations. Additionally, Lucid issued $975 million in new convertible senior notes, which, while extending debt maturity, added to the potential for future dilution.
**4. Reduced 2025 Production Guidance.**
After its second-quarter earnings report in August 2025, Lucid cut its full-year 2025 production guidance from an initial 20,000 vehicles to a range of 18,000-20,000 units. This downward revision was attributed to a continuously changing market environment and other macroeconomic challenges, signaling potential difficulties in scaling production.
**5. Broader EV Market Headwinds and Expired Tax Credits.**
The electric vehicle market faced broader slowdowns, partly due to the expiration of federal EV tax credits in the US in September 2025. This policy change effectively increased the cost of high-end EVs for consumers, contributing to a general slowdown in demand that impacted Lucid.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LCID Return | � | 280% | -82% | -38% | -28% | -58% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | -58% | 38% | 14% | 34% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LCID Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 25% | 25% | 33% | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 52% | 33% | 54% | 54% | 63% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LCID Max Drawdown | � | 0% | -84% | -45% | -52% | -61% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -61% | -19% | -32% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TSLA, RIVN, GM, F.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LCID | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -93.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1445.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -2.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 2.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 148 days |
Compare to RIVN, CAAS, EMPD, SBLX, TSLA
In The Past
Lucid's stock fell -93.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/18/2021. A -93.5% loss requires a 1445.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Lucid Earnings Notes | |||
| Would You Still Hold Lucid Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return | ||
| Lucid Stock Dips 24% In One Month, Should You Buy The Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| LCID Jumps 13% In A Week: How Does It Stack Against Peers? | |||
| Lucid (LCID) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Lucid (LCID) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Lucid (LCID) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Lucid (LCID) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Lucid (LCID) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Lucid (LCID) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| LCID Up 12% in One Week, Should You Buy The Stock? | September 26th, 2025 | ||
| LCID Up 13% in One Week: Is It Outperforming Its Rivals? | September 25th, 2025 | ||
| LCID Soars 14% In A Single Day: How Does It Compare With Others? | September 6th, 2025 | ||
| LCID Leaps 14% In One Day: Does It Lead the Pack? | September 6th, 2025 | ||
| LCID Up 14% in One Day, Should You Buy The Stock? | September 6th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LCID. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.9% | 17.9% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.2% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.4% | 12.4% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.9% | 17.9% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lucid
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 18.42 |
| Mkt Cap | 54.8 |
| Rev LTM | 95,633 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,619 |
| FCF LTM | -489 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -2,949 |
| CFO LTM | 15,748 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 14,130 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -0.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 54.8 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| P/EBIT | 7.3 |
| P/E | 10.1 |
| P/CFO | 2.4 |
| Total Yield | 0.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.8% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 37.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 28.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 34.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 16.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 23.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 17.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -40.3% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/6/2025 | -8.4% | -10.9% | -31.9% |
| 7/2/2025 | 2.9% | 11.7% | 17.6% |
| 4/2/2025 | -3.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% |
| 1/6/2025 | 1.2% | -8.5% | -11.6% |
| 10/7/2024 | 2.4% | 1.8% | -32.9% |
| 7/8/2024 | 7.8% | 45.1% | 2.4% |
| 4/9/2024 | 2.3% | -8.0% | -0.8% |
| 1/11/2024 | -4.4% | -22.3% | 3.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| # Negative | 8 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.2% | 9.0% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -7.3% | -12.3% | -12.8% |
| Max Positive | 23.7% | 45.1% | 26.5% |
| Max Negative | -13.8% | -22.3% | -32.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |