Garrett Motion (GTX)
Market Price (10/21/2026): $23.66 | Market Cap: $4.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Garrett Motion (GTX)
Market Price (10/21/2026): $23.66Market Cap: $4.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 8.2% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Fuel Cell Technology, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.4% Key risksGTX key risks include [1] the long-term threat to its core turbocharger business from the automotive industry's shift to electric vehicles and [2] a significant debt load coupled with substantial cash payment obligations to Honeywell. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.4%, FCF Yield is 8.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Hydrogen Economy, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Cybersecurity. Themes include Fuel Cell Technology, Show more. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.4% |
| Key risksGTX key risks include [1] the long-term threat to its core turbocharger business from the automotive industry's shift to electric vehicles and [2] a significant debt load coupled with substantial cash payment obligations to Honeywell. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Garrett Motion (GTX) stock has lost about 35% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deteriorating Outlook for Light Vehicle Production. Garrett Motion's own Q2 fiscal year 2026 earnings release in July 2026 revised its full-year 2026 outlook for light vehicle production to be down by 2-4%, a worsening from its earlier estimate of a 1-3% decline. This indicates a challenging macroeconomic environment directly impacting its core automotive market.
2. Broadening Macroeconomic Headwinds. The stock faced pressure from several macroeconomic factors, including renewed tariff concerns and the potential for slower-than-expected industrial sales, partly driven by reduced data center capital expenditures. Additionally, a rate-pressured consumer discretionary sector, coupled with high 10-year Treasury yields near 5.3% and Brent crude prices above $100 as of October 8, 2026, created a volatile market that negatively affected cyclical industries like the automotive and industrial sectors.
Show more
Garrett Motion (GTX) stock has lost about 35% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deteriorating Outlook for Light Vehicle Production. Garrett Motion's own Q2 fiscal year 2026 earnings release in July 2026 revised its full-year 2026 outlook for light vehicle production to be down by 2-4%, a worsening from its earlier estimate of a 1-3% decline. This indicates a challenging macroeconomic environment directly impacting its core automotive market.
2. Broadening Macroeconomic Headwinds. The stock faced pressure from several macroeconomic factors, including renewed tariff concerns and the potential for slower-than-expected industrial sales, partly driven by reduced data center capital expenditures. Additionally, a rate-pressured consumer discretionary sector, coupled with high 10-year Treasury yields near 5.3% and Brent crude prices above $100 as of October 8, 2026, created a volatile market that negatively affected cyclical industries like the automotive and industrial sectors.
3. Negative Shifts in Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets. Despite an initial positive reaction to strong Q2 fiscal year 2026 results, Garrett Motion experienced several analyst downgrades and price target reductions. Wall Street Zen downgraded the stock from "buy" to "hold" on October 3, 2026, and Zacks Research lowered its rating from "strong buy" to "hold" on October 14, 2026. JPMorgan Chase & Co. also reduced its price target from $37.00 to $35.00 on September 15, 2026.
4. Concerns Regarding Cash Conversion and Valuation Premium. An analysis as of October 16, 2026, indicated that Garrett Motion's cash generation was lagging its reported earnings growth, raising investor concerns about the quality of its profitability. Furthermore, the company traded at a premium on a forward Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest and Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EV/EBITDA) basis compared to its peers, with an 8.56x multiple versus BorgWarner at 6.66x and Magna International at 5.29x, suggesting potential overvaluation.
Show less
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -34.5% change in GTX stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -37.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.12 | 23.67 | -34.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,691 | 3,754 | 1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.3% | 9.5% | 2.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.9 | 12.4 | -37.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 189 | 187 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -34.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GTX | -34.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 43.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.5% | 5.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.0% change in GTX stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 10.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 18.07 | 23.67 | 31.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,584 | 3,754 | 4.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.2 | 12.4 | 10.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 193 | 187 | 2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GTX | 31.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 18.6% | 44.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 6.2% | 25.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 76.3% change in GTX stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 37.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.43 | 23.67 | 76.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,461 | 3,754 | 8.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.0 | 12.4 | 37.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 203 | 187 | 8.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 76.3% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GTX | 76.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.4% | 41.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -3.0% | 28.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 209.8% change in GTX stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 458.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.64 | 23.67 | 209.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,824 | 3,754 | -1.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.6% | 9.5% | -1.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 2.2 | 12.4 | 458.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 107 | 187 | -42.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 209.8% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GTX | 209.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.1% | 39.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 46.8% | 32.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GTX Return | 76% | -5% | 27% | -7% | 97% | 35% | 427% |
| Peers Return | 7% | -12% | 16% | -21% | 15% | 22% | 22% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GTX Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 40% | 47% | 35% | 58% | 44% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GTX Max Drawdown | -34% | -31% | -21% | -27% | -27% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -42% | -32% | -35% | -33% | -37% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VC, PATK, CVGI, MGA, BWA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GTX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 19 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -10.9% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 115 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -19.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.8% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 73 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -67.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 206.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 418 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Garrett Motion's stock fell -20.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 26.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | GTX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 19 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -67.4% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 206.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 418 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Garrett Motion's stock fell -20.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 26.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Garrett Motion (GTX)
Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) is a global technology company focused on advanced propulsion solutions for the automotive industry. The company specializes in the design, manufacturing, and sale of turbocharger and electric-boosting technologies.
Garrett Motion's primary product portfolio includes turbochargers specifically engineered for light vehicles, covering both gasoline and diesel engines, as well as commercial vehicle applications. Beyond its hardware offerings, the company also develops and provides automotive software solutions. Its main customer base consists of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) of light and commercial vehicles across the globe.
Furthermore, Garrett Motion extends its market reach into the automotive aftermarket, making its products available through a robust network of distributors. Headquartered in Rolle, Switzerland, the company plays a significant role in enhancing vehicle performance, fuel efficiency, and emissions control for a worldwide clientele.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies for Garrett Motion (GTX):
- Like BorgWarner, but intensely focused on turbochargers and electric-boosting systems for vehicle manufacturers.
- A specialized Bosch, making only turbochargers and electric boosters for car and truck engines.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Garrett Motion's major products are:
- Turbocharger and Electric-Boosting Technologies: These include turbochargers for light vehicle gasoline and diesel engines, commercial vehicle turbochargers, and advanced electric-boosting solutions for vehicles.
- Automotive Software Solutions: The company develops and provides software products tailored for various applications within the automotive industry.
- Aftermarket Products: Garrett Motion offers its core products, such as turbochargers and related technologies, for sale in the aftermarket through distributors.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) of Light and Commercial Vehicles: These are global automotive manufacturers that integrate Garrett's turbocharger and electric-boosting technologies into their new vehicles. While Garrett Motion serves a broad range of global OEMs, some of the most prominent customers in the industry include:
- Aftermarket Distributors: Garrett Motion also supplies its products to a network of global distributors for sale in the automotive aftermarket. These distributors serve various repair shops, independent garages, and parts retailers worldwide. Specific distributor names are not publicly disclosed as major customers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
AI Analysis | Feedback
Olivier Rabiller, Director, President & Chief Executive Officer
Olivier Rabiller led the spinoff of Garrett Motion from Honeywell International Inc. to establish it as an independent publicly traded company in 2018. Prior to this, he served as President and Chief Executive Officer of Honeywell Transportation Systems. His extensive career at Honeywell, which he joined in 2002, included leadership positions in high-growth regions, global aftermarket, sourcing, business development, and was involved in mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures. Before joining Honeywell, Mr. Rabiller spent seven years at Renault in various roles including Customer Services, Engine Project Management, and Purchasing.
Sean Deason, Senior Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Sean Deason serves as the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Garrett Motion Inc. No further specific background information regarding his involvement in founding or managing other companies, selling companies to acquirers, or a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies is readily available in the provided search results.
Craig Balis, Senior Vice President & Chief Technology Officer
Craig Balis holds the position of Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer at Garrett Motion Inc. No detailed background information concerning his prior roles, company founding, sales, or private equity affiliations was found in the provided search results.
Thierry Mabru, Senior Vice President, Integrated Supply Chain
Thierry Mabru is the Senior Vice President of Integrated Supply Chain for Garrett Motion. He held this role for Honeywell Transportation Systems before Garrett's spin-off from Honeywell in 2018. His previous roles at Honeywell, which he joined in 1997, include Senior Director of Global Advanced Manufacturing Engineering and Director of the Program Management Office for EMEAI for Honeywell Aerospace.
Mark Rollinger, Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Mark Rollinger serves as Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary for Garrett Motion. He has over 30 years of experience leading international teams and managing complex global transactions. Before joining Garrett, Mr. Rollinger was General Counsel at Syensqo and Chief Legal Officer at Stellantis. He also held senior leadership roles at Sodexo, Lafarge, and Rhodia, and began his career at Cleary, Gottlieb, Steen & Hamilton.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) faces several key risks to its business, primarily driven by the transformative shifts within the automotive industry. The most significant risks include:
- Transition to Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Decline of Internal Combustion Engines (ICE): Garrett Motion's core business relies heavily on turbocharger and electric-boosting technologies for internal combustion engine (ICE) and hybrid vehicles. The rapid, widespread adoption of full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) poses an "existential threat" because turbochargers are not utilized in BEVs. While Garrett is actively investing in zero-emission technologies like e-turbos, fuel cell compressors, and electric motors, the success and scalability of these new ventures are not guaranteed, and the pace of the automotive industry's transition to electrification remains a critical uncertainty.
- Customer Concentration and Intense Competition: The company operates in a highly competitive automotive supplier landscape, facing rivals including independent suppliers, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and startups. Garrett Motion also has substantial customer concentration, with its top ten customers representing 62% of its net sales. Any changes in these key customer relationships, including financial instability or a reduction in orders, could materially impact Garrett's business and financial performance.
- Cyclicality of the Automotive Industry and Macroeconomic Factors: Garrett Motion's sales and profitability are closely tied to the cyclical nature of global light and commercial vehicle production volumes. Economic downturns, geopolitical tensions, fluctuating trade policies, and inflationary pressures can disrupt supply chains, suppress consumer demand, and negatively affect the company's operations and financial results.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Widespread adoption of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). As BEVs do not utilize internal combustion engines, the core components manufactured by Garrett Motion, such as turbochargers and related electric-boosting technologies designed for combustion engines, become obsolete in the rapidly expanding EV market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Garrett Motion (GTX) operates in several key addressable markets globally for its turbocharger, electric-boosting, and automotive software technologies.
Turbocharger Technologies
The global automotive turbocharger market size was estimated at USD 37.09 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase from USD 39.76 billion in 2025 to approximately USD 73.12 billion by 2034, expanding at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.02% from 2025 to 2034.
Electric-Boosting Technologies
Specifically, for automotive electric turbochargers, which are a part of Garrett Motion's electric-boosting technologies, the global market size was valued at USD 0.13 billion in 2019 and is projected to reach USD 0.5 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 12% during the forecast period. North America holds approximately 40% of the global market share for automotive electric turbochargers, while Europe accounts for approximately 30% of the global market share.
Automotive Software Solutions
The global automotive software market size was estimated at USD 32,959.1 million (approximately USD 32.96 billion) in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 108,574.7 million (approximately USD 108.57 billion) by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 16.4% from 2026 to 2033. In 2025, North America held a significant revenue share of over 34.62% of the global automotive software market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Garrett Motion (GTX) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives and market trends:
- Expansion in Zero-Emission Technologies: Garrett Motion is significantly investing in zero-emission technologies, allocating approximately 50% of its research, development, and engineering (R,D&E) spending in 2026 to these areas. This includes securing the first high-speed E-powertrain award for electrified trucks and an E-cooling compressor award for a mobility customer, both projected to begin production in 2027. The company anticipates its industrial cooling business, including initial Trane units launching in 2026 with a major ramp-up in 2027, to exceed 5% of total revenue by the end of the decade.
- Market Share Gains in Turbochargers: The company continues to secure new light vehicle turbo awards, winning more than 50% of new business turbo awards, which is expected to drive market share gains even in a potentially softer overall vehicle market. Furthermore, Garrett Motion has successfully increased its share of demand in gasoline Variable Nozzle Turbine (VNT) applications and expanded its presence in hybrid and range-extended electric vehicle platforms.
- Growth in Commercial Vehicle and Industrial Applications: Garrett Motion has secured multiple new awards within the commercial vehicle and industrial sectors, including for power generation and marine applications. The company is actively focusing on verticals that highly value its advanced technology, such as the commercial vehicles and industrial spaces. They have developed a new range of products specifically for gensets, driven by the increasing demand from data centers, with expectations for significant growth in this area.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- Garrett Motion repurchased $208 million of common stock in 2025, which included 7.5 million shares from Oaktree Capital Management, L.P., leading to an 8% year-over-year share reduction.
- The company had repurchased $438 million in stock through Q3 2024 since the conversion of its Series A Preferred Stock.
- A $250 million share repurchase program was authorized for 2025, and a new $250 million program was approved for 2026, commencing January 1, 2026.
Share Issuance
- In May 2025, a secondary public offering of 17 million common shares held by selling stockholders (Oaktree Capital Management, Centerbridge Partners, and Cyrus Capital Partners) was announced; Garrett Motion did not sell any shares or receive proceeds from this offering.
- Concurrently with the May 2025 secondary offering, Garrett Motion planned to repurchase approximately 2 million shares from the underwriters, as part of its existing $250 million share repurchase program, with a maximum aggregate repurchase amount of $25 million.
Outbound Investments
- On April 3, 2024, Garrett Motion divested its equity interest in an unconsolidated joint venture for approximately $58 million, receiving cash consideration of $46 million on the divestiture date.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for 2025 were $72 million.
- For 2026, capital spending is expected to increase, primarily focusing on investments in the company's zero-emission technology portfolio.
- Projected capital expenditures for 2026 are 2.5% of sales, with approximately 25% directed towards zero-emission technologies.
Peer Outperformance in Automotive Parts & Equipment
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -20.6% | 77.0% | 88.7% | CVSA 257% · PRDO 239% · LRN 124% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | -9.0% | 37.5% | 23.6% | GRBK 163% · PHM 139% · TOL 135% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 15.4% | 51.9% | 19.7% | RCL 255% · MAR 170% · HLT 160% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | 13.9% | 40.7% | 19.6% | ASO 50% · DKS 35% · FIVE 20% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | -7.2% | 49.2% | -3.1% | SGI 44% · MHK -37% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -16.9% | 10.0% | -3.8% | HD 0% · LOW -4% · FND -65% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -13.6% | 12.8% | -7.5% | MUSA 218% · PAG 131% · ORLY 110% |
| Footwear | 9 | 68.6% | 45.1% | -10.7% | DECK 46% · SHOO 19% · CROX -11% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -12.7% | 23.3% | -11.5% | HRB 132% · FTDR 88% · SCI 43% |
| Restaurants | 37 | -7.8% | -2.3% | -18.7% | EAT 342% · CAKE 215% · TXRH 109% |
| Distributors | 4 | -14.1% | -19.1% | -22.6% | ARMK 128% · GPC 10% · LKQ -55% |
| Apparel Retail | 26 | 4.8% | 0.9% | -38.2% | ANF 328% · TJX 147% · ROST 129% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 7.7% | -1.9% | -38.4% | LTH 139% · OSW 120% · PLNT -31% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | -0.8% | 4.0% | -41.8% | |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 13.3% | 58.2% | -42.6% | BBY 4% · GME -43% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -17.0% | -17.0% | -42.9% | GOLF 78% · HAS 47% · MAT -15% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | 2.5% | 19.3% | -44.8% | RL 251% · TPR 246% · KTB 77% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment ← | 39 | -13.8% | -12.9% | -48.2% | MOD 1127% · GTX 231% · BWA 56% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -12.6% | -24.3% | -48.4% | MCRI 89% · BYD 13% · RRR 11% |
| Broadline Retail | 14 | -2.3% | 23.8% | -52.3% | EBAY 74% · AMZN 54% · OLLI 39% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 17 | -29.4% | -33.8% | -77.7% | ULTA 68% · TSCO -11% · BBWI -66% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -72.5% | -56.0% | -77.8% | GM 39% · TSLA 29% · F 3% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -31.0% | -30.6% | -79.3% | GRMN 98% · SONO -47% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 62.46 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.4 |
| Rev LTM | 3,859 |
| Op Inc LTM | 406 |
| FCF LTM | 262 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 286 |
| CFO LTM | 365 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 396 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 11.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $23.67 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/03/2021 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -34.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $26.50 | $25.15 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -10.7% | -5.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 34.8% | 50.5% |
| Downside Capture | 208.55 | 146.88 |
| Upside Capture | 36.77 | 202.41 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 43.2% | 43.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.03 | 1.00 | 1.72 | 1.96 | 1.63 | 1.07 |
| Up Beta | -1.15 | 0.03 | 2.01 | 1.98 | 1.66 | 0.97 |
| Down Beta | 0.84 | 0.64 | 0.04 | 0.75 | 0.76 | 0.88 |
| Up Capture | 126% | 68% | 116% | 312% | 391% | 263% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 21 | 29 | 68 | 125 | 376 |
| Down Capture | 139% | 244% | 277% | 189% | 135% | 104% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 35 | 58 | 124 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GTX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTX | 88.8% | 50.5% | 1.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -0.9% | 19.2% | -0.18 | 29.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.8% | 12.7% | 0.93 | 42.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.9% | 29.3% | -0.10 | 18.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 52.5% | 20.7% | 1.93 | -11.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.1% | 13.8% | 0.11 | 18.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -23.7% | 43.6% | -0.50 | 15.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GTX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTX | 27.2% | 41.3% | 0.69 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.6% | 24.1% | 0.19 | 29.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 33.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.1% | 18.9% | 0.77 | 7.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 3.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.4% | 18.9% | -0.03 | 26.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.7% | 51.7% | 0.33 | 11.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GTX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTX | 2.1% | 63.0% | 0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.3% | 22.2% | 0.50 | 26.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 28.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.4% | 0.60 | 2.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 10.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 27.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.9% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 7.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/31/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/29/2026 | -3.8% | 5.0% | -9.6% |
| 4/30/2026 | 25.0% | 31.5% | 59.9% |
| 2/19/2026 | -6.4% | -1.4% | -15.2% |
| 10/23/2025 | 19.3% | 36.5% | 25.0% |
| 7/24/2025 | 3.4% | 10.7% | 11.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | 10.6% | 22.8% | 15.0% |
| 2/20/2025 | 5.2% | 7.8% | -3.2% |
| 10/24/2024 | -7.4% | -1.9% | 2.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 6.9% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.2% | -9.6% |
| Max Positive | 25.0% | 36.5% | 59.9% |
| Max Negative | -11.6% | -6.3% | -17.1% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/29/2026 | -3.8% | 5.0% | -9.6% |
| 4/30/2026 | 25.0% | 31.5% | 59.9% |
| 2/19/2026 | -6.4% | -1.4% | -15.2% |
| 10/23/2025 | 19.3% | 36.5% | 25.0% |
| 7/24/2025 | 3.4% | 10.7% | 11.0% |
| 5/1/2025 | 10.6% | 22.8% | 15.0% |
| 2/20/2025 | 5.2% | 7.8% | -3.2% |
| 10/24/2024 | -7.4% | -1.9% | 2.8% |
| 7/25/2024 | -11.6% | -3.9% | -11.2% |
| 4/25/2024 | 0.3% | -4.7% | -9.8% |
| 2/15/2024 | 12.9% | 11.2% | 13.5% |
| 10/24/2023 | -1.7% | -0.6% | 3.1% |
| 7/27/2023 | 4.4% | 5.6% | 7.8% |
| 4/24/2023 | -0.6% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| 2/14/2023 | -2.0% | -6.3% | -17.1% |
| 10/26/2022 | 11.0% | 17.3% | 29.3% |
| 7/28/2022 | 0.2% | 3.0% | 16.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | 3.5% | 5.9% | -6.6% |
| 2/14/2022 | -0.4% | -2.2% | -2.9% |
| 10/28/2021 | 1.5% | 6.1% | 11.3% |
| 7/29/2021 | -3.1% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 6.9% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.2% | -9.6% |
| Max Positive | 25.0% | 36.5% | 59.9% |
| Max Negative | -11.6% | -6.3% | -17.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/14/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/14/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/16/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/11/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/27/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/08/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/4/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EBIT | Reported | 560.00 Mil | 580.00 Mil | 600.00 Mil | 3.6% | Raised | Guidance: 560.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net cash provided by operating activities | Reported | 435.00 Mil | 480.00 Mil | 525.00 Mil | 3.3% | Raised | Guidance: 464.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net sales (GAAP) | Reported | 3.70 Bil | 3.80 Bil | 3.90 Bil | 1.3% | Raised | Guidance: 3.75 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net sales growth at constant currency | Reported | 1.0% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net income (GAAP) | Reported | 330.00 Mil | 345.00 Mil | 360.00 Mil | 4.5% | Raised | Guidance: 330.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted free cash flow | Reported | 385.00 Mil | 430.00 Mil | 475.00 Mil | 3.6% | Raised | Guidance: 415.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EBIT | Reported | 520.00 Mil | 560.00 Mil | 600.00 Mil | 2.8% | Raised | Guidance: 545.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities | Reported | 407.00 Mil | 464.50 Mil | 522.00 Mil | 2.2% | Raised | Guidance: 454.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 3.60 Bil | 3.75 Bil | 3.90 Bil | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 3.70 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Sales Growth at Constant Currency | Reported | -2.0% | 2.0% | 6.0% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 0.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 300.00 Mil | 330.00 Mil | 360.00 Mil | 4.8% | Raised | Guidance: 315.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | Reported | 355.00 Mil | 415.00 Mil | 475.00 Mil | 2.5% | Raised | Guidance: 405.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted EBIT | Reported | 520.00 Mil | 545.00 Mil | 570.00 Mil | 6.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 510.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net cash provided by operating activities | Reported | 407.00 Mil | 454.50 Mil | 502.00 Mil | 9.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 415.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 3.60 Bil | 3.70 Bil | 3.80 Bil | 4.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.55 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | -2.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | ||||
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 295.00 Mil | 315.00 Mil | 335.00 Mil | 12.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 280.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 355.00 Mil | 405.00 Mil | 455.00 Mil | 5.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 385.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/23/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Adjusted EBIT | Reported | 490.00 Mil | 510.00 Mil | 530.00 Mil | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 500.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Net cash provided by operating activities | Reported | 380.00 Mil | 415.00 Mil | 450.00 Mil | 1.2% | Raised | Guidance: 410.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Revenue | Reported | 3.50 Bil | 3.55 Bil | 3.60 Bil | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 3.50 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 610.00 Mil | 630.00 Mil | 650.00 Mil | 1.6% | Raised | Guidance: 620.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Net Income | Reported | 265.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 295.00 Mil | 9.6% | Raised | Guidance: 255.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted free cash flow | Reported | 350.00 Mil | 385.00 Mil | 420.00 Mil | 4.1% | Raised | Guidance: 370.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/5/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steyn, Julia | Direct | Sell | 9152026 | 28.00 | 178 | 4,984 | 1,527,680 | Form | |
| 2 | Deiro, Daniel | SVP, GCM & GM Japan/Korea | Direct | Sell | 9032026 | 26.89 | 20,000 | 537,818 | 3,059,727 | Form |
| 3 | Deiro, Daniel | SVP, GCM & GM Japan/Korea | Direct | Sell | 9032026 | 26.70 | 30,000 | 800,943 | 3,571,752 | Form |
| 4 | Rodrigues, Mark Albert | SVP, GM GBEs Turbo Tech | Direct | Sell | 6262026 | 33.30 | 6,140 | 204,480 | 2,565,589 | Form |
| 5 | Rodrigues, Mark Albert | SVP, GM GBEs Turbo Tech | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 33.82 | 10,516 | 355,630 | 2,812,914 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steyn, Julia | Direct | Sell | 9152026 | 28.00 | 178 | 4,984 | 1,527,680 | Form | |
| 2 | Deiro, Daniel | SVP, GCM & GM Japan/Korea | Direct | Sell | 9032026 | 26.89 | 20,000 | 537,818 | 3,059,727 | Form |
| 3 | Deiro, Daniel | SVP, GCM & GM Japan/Korea | Direct | Sell | 9032026 | 26.70 | 30,000 | 800,943 | 3,571,752 | Form |
| 4 | Rodrigues, Mark Albert | SVP, GM GBEs Turbo Tech | Direct | Sell | 6262026 | 33.30 | 6,140 | 204,480 | 2,565,589 | Form |
| 5 | Rodrigues, Mark Albert | SVP, GM GBEs Turbo Tech | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 33.82 | 10,516 | 355,630 | 2,812,914 | Form |
| 6 | Deason, Sean | SVP & Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 31.93 | 110,000 | 3,512,597 | 8,363,462 | Form |
| 7 | Mabru, Thierry | SVP, Integrated Supply Chain | Direct | Sell | 6012026 | 33.00 | 70,000 | 2,309,811 | 4,882,149 | Form |
| 8 | Ninivaggi, Daniel A | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 31.22 | 17,178 | 536,294 | 3,898,885 | Form | |
| 9 | Rabiller, Olivier | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 20.32 | 144,000 | 2,925,950 | 18,399,880 | Form |
| 10 | Rabiller, Olivier | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 20.29 | 143,000 | 2,901,041 | 21,292,140 | Form |
| 11 | Deiro, Daniel | SVP, CM & GM Japan/Korea | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 20.29 | 20,000 | 405,710 | 3,265,844 | Form |
| 12 | Rabiller, Olivier | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 20.32 | 143,000 | 2,905,488 | 24,230,269 | Form |
| 13 | Deiro, Daniel | SVP, CM & GM Japan/Korea | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 20.31 | 13,000 | 264,088 | 3,676,803 | Form |
| 14 | Spenninck, Fabrice | SVP & Chief Human Res. Officer | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 20.28 | 19,000 | 385,335 | 3,067,248 | Form |
| 15 | Spenninck, Fabrice | SVP & Chief Human Res. Officer | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 20.31 | 20,000 | 406,284 | 3,458,269 | Form |
| 16 | Steyn, Julia | Direct | Sell | 2262026 | 19.86 | 17,000 | 337,687 | 997,824 | Form | |
| 17 | Oaktree, Capital Group Holdings Gp, Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 11132025 | 17.00 | 6,300,000 | 107,100,000 | 290,611,872 | Form | |
| 18 | Oaktree, Capital Group Holdings Gp, Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 11052025 | 16.26 | 2,500,000 | 40,650,000 | 380,399,708 | Form | |
| 19 | Oaktree, Capital Group Holdings Gp, Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 10292025 | 16.25 | 6,000,000 | 97,500,000 | 420,790,760 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 21, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment Resources |
| AftermarketNews |
| Tire Review |
| Motor Age |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.