Commercial Vehicle (CVGI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.72 | Market Cap: $58.1 MilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Commercial Vehicle (CVGI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $1.72Market Cap: $58.1 MilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -124%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -146% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.1 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.6% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Advanced Materials. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 152% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -72% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Advanced Materials. Themes include EV Manufacturing, Autonomous Driving Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -124%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -146% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -4.1 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -0.6% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 152% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -72% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CVGI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) experienced a -2.3% movement in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, primarily due to the following key points:
1. Missed Q3 2025 Earnings Estimates: Commercial Vehicle Group reported its Q3 2025 earnings on November 10, 2025, with an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of -$0.14, missing the consensus estimate of -$0.12. Quarterly revenue also fell short at $152.49 million, below analysts' expectations of $157.40 million.
2. Decline in Revenue: The company's consolidated revenue for Q3 2025 was $152.5 million, an 11% year-over-year decrease from $171.8 million in the same period last year. This decline was primarily attributed to a softening in customer demand across global seating and trim systems and component segments, particularly in North America.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CVGI Return | 36% | -7% | -16% | 3% | -65% | -31% | -73% |
| Peers Return | 122% | 8% | -24% | 4% | -25% | 9% | 54% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CVGI Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 42% | 42% | 25% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 50% | 37% | 47% | 37% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CVGI Max Drawdown | -80% | -18% | -50% | -18% | -70% | -66% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -55% | -8% | -44% | -21% | -38% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PATK, VC, PRTS, APTV, MGA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CVGI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -69.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 229.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -80.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 399.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 161 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -59.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 145.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -97.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4602.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to PATK, VC, PRTS, APTV, MGA
In The Past
Commercial Vehicle's stock fell -69.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -69.7% loss requires a 229.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With Commercial Vehicle Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CVGI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Commercial Vehicle
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 63.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| Rev LTM | 3,816 |
| Op Inc LTM | 300 |
| FCF LTM | 275 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 274 |
| CFO LTM | 398 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 378 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.1 |
| P/S | 0.6 |
| P/EBIT | 8.0 |
| P/E | 11.8 |
| P/CFO | 5.2 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 23.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 10.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -28.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 8.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -98.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vehicle Solutions | 470 | 470 | 499 | 367 | |
| Electrical Systems | 228 | 180 | 169 | 141 | 522 |
| Aftermarket and Accessories | 137 | 132 | 116 | 108 | |
| Corporate/Other | 0 | ||||
| Industrial Automation | 188 | 102 | |||
| Global Seating | 379 | ||||
| Total | 835 | 783 | 972 | 718 | 901 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vehicle Solutions | 33 | 20 | 24 | 3 | |
| Electrical Systems | 26 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 43 |
| Aftermarket and Accessories | 18 | 12 | 12 | 11 | |
| Corporate and other unallocated costs | -38 | -24 | |||
| Corporate/Other | -24 | -28 | -26 | ||
| Industrial Automation | 24 | -16 | |||
| Global Seating | 24 | ||||
| Total | 40 | 25 | 50 | -23 | 41 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3172025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3062023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3022022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11022021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |