GEO (GEO)
Market Price (10/22/2026): $27.65 | Market Cap: $3.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services
GEO (GEO)
Market Price (10/22/2026): $27.65Market Cap: $3.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Public Safety & Justice. Themes include Correctional Facility Management, Electronic Monitoring & Supervision, and Rehabilitation & Reintegration Services. | Key risksGEO key risks include [1] political and activist opposition resulting in government contract cancellations and major banks denying financing, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.1% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Public Safety & Justice. Themes include Correctional Facility Management, Electronic Monitoring & Supervision, and Rehabilitation & Reintegration Services. |
| Key risksGEO key risks include [1] political and activist opposition resulting in government contract cancellations and major banks denying financing, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 10/19/2026
GEO (GEO) stock has lost about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Market's Cautious Reaction to Significant Asset Divestment and Deleveraging.
On October 5, 2026, GEO announced the sale of its Adelanto, California ICE Processing Center Complex for $950 million, alongside an increased share repurchase authorization to $1.25 billion. Despite these moves bolstering liquidity and indicating a commitment to shareholder returns, the market reacted negatively, evidenced by a 7.42% stock price drop on October 6, 2026. This suggests investors may have interpreted the substantial asset divestment as a strategic shift implying reduced operational scale or expressed concerns about the company's long-term growth trajectory following the sale. Concurrently, the completion of the redemption of $650 million in senior secured notes due 2029 on October 15, 2026, and the amendment of its revolving credit facility — while financially positive by reducing debt service costs and enhancing flexibility — did not lead to sustained positive stock performance, possibly indicating these factors were already priced in or overshadowed by other concerns.
2. Persistent Overhang of Industry-Specific and ESG Risks.
Even with positive fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, where GEO reported an EPS of $0.37 against an estimated $0.29, the company operates in an industry facing inherent risks. GEO's revenue remains highly susceptible to changes in government contracts, budget shortfalls, and shifts in policy driven by political or Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations. These long-standing industry challenges, which can lead to reduced demand for private facility management, likely continued to weigh on investor sentiment throughout the period since June 30, 2026. This consistent backdrop of elevated risk may have muted the positive impact of otherwise favorable company-specific financial news and contributed to the overall negative trend.
Show more
GEO (GEO) stock has lost about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Market's Cautious Reaction to Significant Asset Divestment and Deleveraging.
On October 5, 2026, GEO announced the sale of its Adelanto, California ICE Processing Center Complex for $950 million, alongside an increased share repurchase authorization to $1.25 billion. Despite these moves bolstering liquidity and indicating a commitment to shareholder returns, the market reacted negatively, evidenced by a 7.42% stock price drop on October 6, 2026. This suggests investors may have interpreted the substantial asset divestment as a strategic shift implying reduced operational scale or expressed concerns about the company's long-term growth trajectory following the sale. Concurrently, the completion of the redemption of $650 million in senior secured notes due 2029 on October 15, 2026, and the amendment of its revolving credit facility — while financially positive by reducing debt service costs and enhancing flexibility — did not lead to sustained positive stock performance, possibly indicating these factors were already priced in or overshadowed by other concerns.
2. Persistent Overhang of Industry-Specific and ESG Risks.
Even with positive fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, where GEO reported an EPS of $0.37 against an estimated $0.29, the company operates in an industry facing inherent risks. GEO's revenue remains highly susceptible to changes in government contracts, budget shortfalls, and shifts in policy driven by political or Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations. These long-standing industry challenges, which can lead to reduced demand for private facility management, likely continued to weigh on investor sentiment throughout the period since June 30, 2026. This consistent backdrop of elevated risk may have muted the positive impact of otherwise favorable company-specific financial news and contributed to the overall negative trend.
Show more
Updated on 10/19/2026
GEO (GEO) stock has lost about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Market's Cautious Reaction to Significant Asset Divestment and Deleveraging.
On October 5, 2026, GEO announced the sale of its Adelanto, California ICE Processing Center Complex for $950 million, alongside an increased share repurchase authorization to $1.25 billion. Despite these moves bolstering liquidity and indicating a commitment to shareholder returns, the market reacted negatively, evidenced by a 7.42% stock price drop on October 6, 2026. This suggests investors may have interpreted the substantial asset divestment as a strategic shift implying reduced operational scale or expressed concerns about the company's long-term growth trajectory following the sale. Concurrently, the completion of the redemption of $650 million in senior secured notes due 2029 on October 15, 2026, and the amendment of its revolving credit facility — while financially positive by reducing debt service costs and enhancing flexibility — did not lead to sustained positive stock performance, possibly indicating these factors were already priced in or overshadowed by other concerns.
2. Persistent Overhang of Industry-Specific and ESG Risks.
Even with positive fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, where GEO reported an EPS of $0.37 against an estimated $0.29, the company operates in an industry facing inherent risks. GEO's revenue remains highly susceptible to changes in government contracts, budget shortfalls, and shifts in policy driven by political or Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations. These long-standing industry challenges, which can lead to reduced demand for private facility management, likely continued to weigh on investor sentiment throughout the period since June 30, 2026. This consistent backdrop of elevated risk may have muted the positive impact of otherwise favorable company-specific financial news and contributed to the overall negative trend.
3. Lack of Sustained Positive Operational Catalysts Post-Q2 Earnings.
Following the announcement of strong fiscal Q2 2026 results on August 6, 2026, which exceeded analyst expectations for both earnings and revenue, there was a noticeable absence of further significant positive operational news to maintain investor momentum. While an extension of an ICE contract for the Aurora detention facility was reported on October 17, 2026, this development occurred late in the period and was not substantial enough to counteract the earlier negative market reactions to other news or broader industry sentiment. The lack of continuous, strong operational catalysts to bolster confidence likely allowed existing market apprehensions to exert greater downward pressure on the stock price, contributing to the approximate 5% decline.
Show less
GEO (GEO) stock has lost about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Market's Cautious Reaction to Significant Asset Divestment and Deleveraging.
On October 5, 2026, GEO announced the sale of its Adelanto, California ICE Processing Center Complex for $950 million, alongside an increased share repurchase authorization to $1.25 billion. Despite these moves bolstering liquidity and indicating a commitment to shareholder returns, the market reacted negatively, evidenced by a 7.42% stock price drop on October 6, 2026. This suggests investors may have interpreted the substantial asset divestment as a strategic shift implying reduced operational scale or expressed concerns about the company's long-term growth trajectory following the sale. Concurrently, the completion of the redemption of $650 million in senior secured notes due 2029 on October 15, 2026, and the amendment of its revolving credit facility — while financially positive by reducing debt service costs and enhancing flexibility — did not lead to sustained positive stock performance, possibly indicating these factors were already priced in or overshadowed by other concerns.
2. Persistent Overhang of Industry-Specific and ESG Risks.
Even with positive fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, where GEO reported an EPS of $0.37 against an estimated $0.29, the company operates in an industry facing inherent risks. GEO's revenue remains highly susceptible to changes in government contracts, budget shortfalls, and shifts in policy driven by political or Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations. These long-standing industry challenges, which can lead to reduced demand for private facility management, likely continued to weigh on investor sentiment throughout the period since June 30, 2026. This consistent backdrop of elevated risk may have muted the positive impact of otherwise favorable company-specific financial news and contributed to the overall negative trend.
3. Lack of Sustained Positive Operational Catalysts Post-Q2 Earnings.
Following the announcement of strong fiscal Q2 2026 results on August 6, 2026, which exceeded analyst expectations for both earnings and revenue, there was a noticeable absence of further significant positive operational news to maintain investor momentum. While an extension of an ICE contract for the Aurora detention facility was reported on October 17, 2026, this development occurred late in the period and was not substantial enough to counteract the earlier negative market reactions to other news or broader industry sentiment. The lack of continuous, strong operational catalysts to bolster confidence likely allowed existing market apprehensions to exert greater downward pressure on the stock price, contributing to the approximate 5% decline.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.5% change in GEO stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/21/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.55 | 27.64 | -6.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,731 | 2,827 | 3.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.0% | 10.3% | 3.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.3 | 12.4 | -13.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 133 | 131 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.5% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GEO | -6.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.5% | 9.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | -9.1% | 16.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 64.4% change in GEO stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 37.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 16.81 | 27.64 | 64.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,631 | 2,827 | 7.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.7% | 10.3% | 6.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.0 | 12.4 | 37.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 136 | 131 | 4.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 64.4% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GEO | 64.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.2% | 13.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.3% | 15.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 34.9% change in GEO stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 179.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 20.49 | 27.64 | 34.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,452 | 2,827 | 15.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.7% | 10.3% | 179.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.4 | 12.4 | -60.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 139 | 131 | 6.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 34.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GEO | 34.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.0% | 20.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.1% | 20.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 237.9% change in GEO stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 83.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10212026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.18 | 27.64 | 237.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,439 | 2,827 | 15.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.6% | 10.3% | 83.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 7.3 | 12.4 | 70.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 122 | 131 | -6.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 237.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GEO | 237.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 87.1% | 31.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 72.6% | 32.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GEO Return | -10% | 41% | -1% | 158% | -42% | 74% | 225% |
| Peers Return | 31% | 5% | 21% | 2% | 14% | -0% | 93% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GEO Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 46% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GEO Max Drawdown | -43% | -35% | -43% | -33% | -59% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -33% | -22% | -28% | -26% | -39% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CXW, MMS, AMTM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/21/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GEO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -19.8% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 230 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 155 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1474 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 105 days |
In The Past
GEO's stock fell -17.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.0% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | GEO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -41.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 230 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 155 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -40.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1474 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -20.8% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 105 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 15 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 152.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1317 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
GEO's stock fell -17.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About GEO (GEO)
GEO Group (GEO) is a global provider of diversified government-contracted services for the correctional and detention management sector. The company owns, leases, and manages a network of secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers. Its operations span the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom, serving various governmental agencies in managing individuals within the justice system.
The core of GEO's business involves comprehensive secure facility management, encompassing security, administration, and essential services such as food and education. Beyond containment, the company also provides rehabilitation and care through its "GEO Continuum of Care" platform, offering programs like counseling, substance abuse treatment, academic education, and vocational training to support successful reentry into society. Additionally, GEO offers extensive community-based services, including electronic monitoring for parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants using technologies like GPS and alcohol monitoring, as well as secure transportation and support services such as temporary housing and employment assistance for individuals transitioning back into the community. GEO serves approximately 250,000 offenders and pretrial defendants annually.
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The GEO Group is like a Marriott or Hilton, but for prisons and immigration detention centers.
For its electronic monitoring services, GEO is like ADT, but for individuals under legal supervision in the community.
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- Secure Facility Management: GEO owns, leases, and manages secure facilities, processing centers, and reentry centers for various government agencies.
- Rehabilitation and Treatment Services: The company offers comprehensive programs including counseling, education, and treatment for substance abuse and cognitive behavioral issues.
- Reentry Services: GEO provides community-based programs, temporary housing, employment assistance, and supervision to aid individuals in transitioning back into society.
- Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services: The company offers electronic monitoring devices and evidence-based supervision for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants.
- Secure Transportation Services: GEO provides specialized secure transportation for individuals within the justice system.
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The major customers of GEO are governmental entities. The company does not primarily sell to other companies or individuals. Its services, which include secure facility management, electronic monitoring, and reentry services, are contracted by various government agencies.
Here are the categories of its major customers:
- U.S. Federal Government Agencies: Including entities such as the U.S. Marshals Service, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and the Federal Bureau of Prisons.
- U.S. State and Local Government Agencies: Encompassing state departments of corrections, county sheriff's departments, and municipal justice systems across various states.
- International Government Agencies: Government entities and justice ministries in countries where GEO operates, such as Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.
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George C. Zoley
Executive Chairman
George C. Zoley is the founder of The GEO Group, Inc. and has served as its Chairman and Chief Executive Officer since the company went public in 1994. He established The GEO Group as a division of The Wackenhut Corporation in 1984, then named Wackenhut Corrections Corporation. Prior to founding GEO Group, he held roles as manager, director, and vice president of government services at Wackenhut. He also served as the CEO of Cornell Companies Inc. starting in August 2010. Zoley holds a bachelor's degree, a master's degree in public administration from Florida Atlantic University, and a doctorate in Public Administration from Nova Southeastern University. He is scheduled to step down as Executive Chairman on June 30, 2026, and will continue as an advisor to the company and non-Executive Chairman of the Board.
Brian R. Evans
Chief Executive Officer
Brian R. Evans was appointed Chief Executive Officer of The GEO Group, Inc. effective January 1, 2024. He joined GEO in 2000 and has held increasingly senior positions within the company, including Vice President of Finance, Chief Accounting Officer, and Controller. He was named Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in 2009, a role he held for 14 years. Prior to joining GEO, Evans was an Audit Manager at Arthur Andersen LLP. He also served as a Lieutenant, Supply Corps Officer in the U.S. Navy. He earned a Bachelor's Degree in Accounting from the University of Notre Dame.
Shayn March
Acting Chief Financial Officer
Shayn March was appointed Acting Chief Financial Officer of The GEO Group, Inc. effective January 1, 2024. He joined the company in March 2009 as Vice President of Finance and Treasurer. March has 17 years of service with GEO in senior business management roles and will be appointed Chief Financial Officer effective April 1, 2026.
Wayne H. Calabrese
President and Chief Operating Officer
Wayne H. Calabrese was appointed President and Chief Operating Officer of The GEO Group, Inc. effective January 1, 2024. He originally joined GEO in 1989 as Vice President of Business Development and served in a range of increasingly senior positions, including Vice Chairman of the Board, President, and Chief Operating Officer until his retirement in December 2010. Following his retirement, he continued to work with GEO in a consulting capacity. Mr. Calabrese rejoined the company on a full-time basis in 2021 as head of the Legal Department, and in 2022, he was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Prior to his extensive career at GEO, Calabrese was a partner in an Akron, Ohio law firm and served as an Assistant City Law Director, Assistant County Prosecutor, and Legal Counsel and Director of Development for the Akron Metropolitan Housing Authority.
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The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) faces several key risks to its business operations, primarily driven by its reliance on government contracts and the associated political and regulatory landscape.
Key Risks to The GEO Group, Inc.
- Reliance on Government Contracts and Political/Regulatory Risks: The GEO Group's business is heavily dependent on government contracts, particularly with federal agencies such as U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which accounted for nearly half of its projected 2025 revenue. This exposes the company to significant political and regulatory risks, including potential federal funding disruptions, shifts in immigration enforcement policies, and public or political opposition to public-private partnerships. Legislation in some states, like California and Washington, also aims to phase out such partnerships, further threatening the company's operations. A single political shift could reverse enforcement priorities, reduce detention populations, or lead to contract terminations.
- High Level of Indebtedness: The company carries a significant level of indebtedness, which poses a substantial financial risk. As of December 31, 2024, the total consolidated indebtedness was approximately $1.7 billion, excluding finance lease obligations. This high debt load could adversely affect GEO's financial condition and its ability to fulfill debt service obligations. Fluctuations in interest rates also present a market risk, potentially increasing debt service costs, as the company does not currently have interest rate protection agreements in place.
- Litigation and Reputational Exposure: The GEO Group is vulnerable to litigation and reputational damage stemming from ongoing lawsuits related to facility conditions, labor practices, and alleged abuses within detention facilities. Such legal challenges can result in volatile legal costs, potential contract losses, and a negative impact on the company's public image. Reports have highlighted issues such as recurring forced labor and wage theft allegations, as well as instances of U.S. citizens being detained by immigration agents.
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The clear emerging threat for GEO is the increasing governmental policy shift, particularly in the United States, away from the use of privately operated correctional and detention facilities. This trend directly impacts GEO's core business model, which relies on securing and renewing contracts with government agencies to manage secure facilities.
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The GEO Group, Inc. operates in several key markets, including secure facilities, electronic monitoring and supervision services, and reentry services. The addressable markets for these main products and services are as follows:
Secure Facilities (Private Correctional Facilities)
The global private prison service market was valued at approximately USD 8 billion in 2023 and is forecasted to grow to USD 12.5 billion by 2032, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.5% during the forecast period. North America accounts for the largest share of this market, primarily driven by the United States. Specifically, the U.S. private prison contract services market was estimated at USD 6.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 6.83 billion in 2026, with a forecast to grow to USD 9.44 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.59%. As of 2022, private for-profit prisons in the United States incarcerated 90,873 individuals, which represented 8% of the total state and federal prison population.Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services
The global market for electronic offender monitoring solutions is estimated at USD 2.18 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 3.19 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 7.91%. Another estimate places the market at USD 2.35 billion in 2026, projected to reach USD 3.42 billion by 2031 at a 7.82% CAGR. In North America, the market value for electronic monitoring reached US$ 1.1 billion in 2025. North America holds approximately 45% of the global market share for electronic offender monitoring solutions. The number of simultaneous participants in electronic monitoring programs in North America was about 564,000 in 2025, with a forecast to grow to 700,000 by 2030.Reentry Services
The market size for reentry services can be partially represented by the broader Offender Management System Market, which includes rehabilitation and reentry functionalities. The global Offender Management System Market was valued at USD 2,489.12 million in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 4,351.63 million by 2032, with a CAGR of 6.73%. In North America, this market segment was valued at USD 1,037.20 million in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 1,818.53 million by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 6.8%. The United States sees over 600,000 individuals released from state and federal prisons annually, highlighting a significant need for reentry programs and services.AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) over the next 2-3 years:
- New and Expanded Government Contracts: The GEO Group has recently secured significant new or expanded contracts, particularly with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which are projected to generate substantial annualized revenues. For example, in 2025, the company secured new or expanded contracts expected to generate up to approximately $520 million in annualized revenues, marking its most successful year for new business wins. This trend is anticipated to continue, supported by federal funding for immigration enforcement and detention, including $45 billion earmarked for ICE detention, creating a multi-year runway for increased facility activations and new contract acquisitions.
- Increased Utilization of Existing and Idle Facility Capacity: GEO is strategically positioned to capitalize on the U.S. government's objective to activate a greater number of detention beds. The company has approximately 6,000 available high-security idle beds that could generate over $300 million in annualized revenues if brought to full capacity. The activation of five ICE facilities in 2025 significantly increased GEO's managed ICE bed capacity, with the census across active ICE facilities steadily rising to approximately 24,000, representing the highest levels in the company's history.
- Shift Towards Higher-Priced Electronic Monitoring Services: Within its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment, GEO is experiencing a strategic shift. While usage of the SmartLink mobile app in the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) has declined, there has been a steady increase in the utilization of more intensive and higher-priced monitoring devices, such as ankle monitors. This change in service mix is expected to boost revenues and earnings generated under the ISAP contract, even if the overall volume of individuals being monitored remains constant.
- Growth in Reentry Services: The company's Reentry Services segment has shown recent growth. In the fourth quarter of 2023, revenues from residential reentry centers and non-residential reentry programs increased by 11% and 32%, respectively, year-over-year. Continued growth in non-residential programs is also highlighted as a segment trend.
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Share Repurchases
- The GEO Group's Board of Directors increased its share repurchase authorization to $500 million in November 2025, extending the expiration date to December 31, 2029. Approximately $458.4 million of this authorization remained available as of November 6, 2025.
- During the third quarter of 2025, the company repurchased approximately 1.97 million shares of common stock for an aggregate cost of approximately $41.6 million.
- By year-end 2025, The GEO Group had repurchased approximately 4.94 million shares of common stock at an aggregate cost of about $90.6 million under its $500 million share repurchase authorization.
Share Issuance
- In May 2024, The GEO Group retired $177.1 million in principal amount of 6.50% exchangeable senior notes due 2026, utilizing $177.1 million in cash and approximately 9.8 million shares of its common stock.
Outbound Investments
- In November 2025, the company purchased the 770-bed Western Region Detention Facility in San Diego for approximately $60 million.
- In December 2024, The GEO Group announced a $70 million investment in capital expenditures aimed at strengthening its capabilities to provide expanded detention capacity, secure transportation, and electronic monitoring services to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Capital Expenditures
- For the full year 2026, The GEO Group anticipates total capital expenditures to be between $120 million and $155 million, including assumptions for modest organic growth.
- The projected capital expenditures for the full year 2025 were estimated between $120 million and $155 million, with a primary focus on growth (expected $10 million to $25 million), technology (expected $30 million to $35 million), and facility maintenance (expected $80 million to $95 million).
- In December 2024, the company committed $70 million in capital expenditures to enhance its services for ICE, specifically for expanded detention capacity, secure transportation, and electronic monitoring.
Peer Outperformance in Environmental & Facilities Services
GEO has outperformed 93% of its 28 Environmental & Facilities Services peers over 5Y. Environmental & Facilities Services ranks 18th of 23 industries in Industrials by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Environmental & Facilities Services constituents that GEO has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
94%
of 32 industry peers · 58.2% return
3Y
93%
of 30 industry peers · 225.9% return
5Y
93%
of 28 industry peers · 232.6% return
No Environmental & Facilities Services peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten GEO by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Environmental & Facilities Services is GEO's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 30 | -4.6% | 113.1% | 155.6% | STRL 1708% · FIX 1620% · AGX 746% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 58.1% | 49.7% | 134.0% | MATX 201% · KEX 142% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 0.9% | 59.6% | 87.4% | CAT 299% · ALSN 241% · WAB 220% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 52 | -13.9% | 55.5% | 63.5% | ATI 1007% · FTAI 759% · HWM 587% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 8.9% | 38.3% | 45.6% | DXPE 442% · AIT 253% · URI 204% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 72 | 8.7% | 57.9% | 40.6% | CRS 1091% · MLI 412% · SYM 322% |
| Diversified Support Services | 34 | 13.2% | 33.9% | 33.1% | CXW 222% · OPLN 146% · CACI 120% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 29.8% | 48.7% | 28.8% | CSX 48% · UNP 39% · NSC 29% |
| Building Products | 33 | -12.8% | 11.6% | 22.0% | GFF 331% · TT 177% · JCI 126% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 31.0% | 6.0% | 19.8% | XPO 264% · R 208% · ARCB 53% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 37 | -9.1% | 76.7% | 10.4% | POWL 2043% · BE 1025% · VRT 796% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 10.0% | 3.6% | -7.2% | CSW 120% · DD 70% · CSL 64% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 16 | 1.0% | -3.1% | -10.6% | DE 98% · TTC 12% · AGCO -7% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -24.7% | -3.5% | -18.7% | EXLS 67% · BR 7% · G -17% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -1.9% | -18.0% | -22.4% | HURN 268% · FCN 5% · BAH 0% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 17.4% | 19.4% | -26.4% | PBI 192% · TILE 136% · HNI 36% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -58.0% | 16.9% | -26.8% | BCO 85% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services ← | 29 | -27.8% | 26.1% | -32.6% | GEO 233% · CLH 180% · RSG 87% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -27.3% | 57.4% | -38.2% | UBER 46% · CAR -38% · LYFT -66% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 0.3% | 14.8% | -38.5% | LTM 3190% · UAL 118% · DAL 100% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -28.9% | -22.2% | -39.9% | FDX 77% · EXPD 74% · CHRW 61% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 10.3% | -15.2% | -44.4% | ADP 53% · PAYX 7% · FA 3% |
| Airport Services | 4 | -71.2% | -69.2% | -84.3% | JOBY -47% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 28.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.4 |
| Rev LTM | 4,038 |
| Op Inc LTM | 431 |
| FCF LTM | 245 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 175 |
| CFO LTM | 335 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 240 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 24.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 15.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.4 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 10.0 |
| P/EBIT | 7.6 |
| P/E | 17.6 |
| P/CFO | 12.2 |
| Total Yield | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States (U.S.) Secure Services | 1,827 | 1,604 | 1,518 | 1,438 | 1,489 |
| Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services | 321 | 333 | 426 | 496 | 279 |
| Reentry Services | 287 | 278 | 275 | 255 | 275 |
| International Services | 197 | 209 | 194 | 187 | 214 |
| Total | 2,632 | 2,424 | 2,413 | 2,377 | 2,257 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States (U.S.) Secure Services | 329 | 303 | 270 | 281 | 293 |
| Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services | 125 | 147 | 213 | 238 | 127 |
| Reentry Services | 61 | 58 | 49 | 43 | 50 |
| International Services | 16 | 14 | 12 | 19 | 22 |
| Contingent litigation reserve | -38 | ||||
| General and administrative expense | -236 | -213 | -191 | -197 | -204 |
| Total | 257 | 310 | 352 | 384 | 288 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States (U.S.) Secure Services | 2,548 | 2,356 | 2,391 | 2,371 | 2,433 |
| Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services | 519 | 505 | 512 | 536 | 483 |
| Reentry Services | 440 | 465 | 478 | 572 | 567 |
| Restricted cash and investments, current and non-current | 182 | 148 | 136 | 112 | 96 |
| International Services | 76 | 72 | 77 | 66 | 452 |
| Cash | 69 | 77 | 94 | 95 | 506 |
| Deferred income tax assets | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | |
| Total | 3,844 | 3,632 | 3,696 | 3,760 | 4,537 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $27.64 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/28/1994 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -15.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $31.01 | $23.88 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | -10.9% | 15.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 38.1% | 48.8% |
| Downside Capture | -2.20 | 51.89 |
| Upside Capture | -46.89 | 106.67 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 10.2% | 22.6% |
GEO Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.23 | -0.20 | 0.27 | 0.49 | 0.79 | 1.10 |
| Up Beta | -1.87 | -0.73 | 0.05 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 1.03 |
| Down Beta | 2.42 | 0.17 | 1.61 | -0.17 | 1.03 | 1.20 |
| Up Capture | -60% | -10% | 12% | 125% | 91% | 179% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 19 | 30 | 68 | 128 | 366 |
| Down Capture | 36% | 2% | -4% | -15% | 69% | 98% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 23 | 34 | 57 | 122 | 375 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GEO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEO | 62.9% | 48.8% | 1.15 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 10.6% | 17.2% | 0.42 | 21.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.2% | 12.7% | 0.90 | 20.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | -6.0% | 29.0% | -0.22 | 11.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.2% | 20.7% | 1.85 | -8.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.1% | 13.8% | -0.03 | 11.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -25.3% | 43.4% | -0.55 | 11.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GEO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEO | 25.4% | 51.4% | 0.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.6% | 17.6% | 0.54 | 32.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.6% | 17.1% | 0.61 | 31.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.7% | 18.9% | 0.76 | 2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 19.5% | 0.37 | 3.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 22.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.6% | 51.7% | 0.33 | 18.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GEO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEO | 10.1% | 49.9% | 0.38 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.3% | 20.0% | 0.58 | 36.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 33.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.2% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 9.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 32.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.6% | 66.2% | 1.02 | 10.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | -4.1% | 0.1% | -1.7% |
| 5/6/2026 | 20.9% | 16.6% | 37.0% |
| 2/12/2026 | -14.9% | -3.2% | -8.1% |
| 11/6/2025 | -8.3% | -11.2% | -0.2% |
| 8/6/2025 | -11.5% | -19.5% | -18.2% |
| 5/7/2025 | -10.0% | -12.4% | -13.7% |
| 2/27/2025 | 6.1% | -0.4% | 17.9% |
| 11/13/2024 | 2.5% | 9.2% | 7.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 3.7% | 14.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -6.6% | -4.3% |
| Max Positive | 20.9% | 16.6% | 37.7% |
| Max Negative | -14.9% | -19.5% | -21.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2026 | -4.1% | 0.1% | -1.7% |
| 5/6/2026 | 20.9% | 16.6% | 37.0% |
| 2/12/2026 | -14.9% | -3.2% | -8.1% |
| 11/6/2025 | -8.3% | -11.2% | -0.2% |
| 8/6/2025 | -11.5% | -19.5% | -18.2% |
| 5/7/2025 | -10.0% | -12.4% | -13.7% |
| 2/27/2025 | 6.1% | -0.4% | 17.9% |
| 11/13/2024 | 2.5% | 9.2% | 7.6% |
| 8/12/2024 | -3.0% | 4.2% | -1.1% |
| 5/13/2024 | 0.3% | 3.8% | -2.1% |
| 2/22/2024 | -0.7% | 3.6% | 23.5% |
| 11/13/2023 | 3.1% | 3.5% | 9.2% |
| 8/15/2023 | -2.5% | -2.2% | 2.9% |
| 5/1/2023 | -2.0% | 8.8% | -1.6% |
| 2/21/2023 | -3.1% | -6.6% | -19.2% |
| 11/2/2022 | 2.3% | 1.8% | 37.7% |
| 8/8/2022 | -2.6% | 11.3% | 24.0% |
| 5/9/2022 | -7.6% | -10.7% | -5.6% |
| 2/24/2022 | 0.3% | -0.7% | -3.0% |
| 1/6/2022 | -0.6% | -0.4% | -15.3% |
| 11/10/2021 | 2.4% | 1.1% | -21.3% |
| 8/10/2021 | 3.5% | 11.4% | -2.0% |
| 5/14/2021 | 2.1% | -10.2% | 6.8% |
| 2/22/2021 | 0.0% | 1.8% | 3.7% |
| 11/4/2020 | -6.5% | 3.1% | 14.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 3.7% | 14.7% |
| Median Negative | -3.6% | -6.6% | -4.3% |
| Max Positive | 20.9% | 16.6% | 37.7% |
| Max Negative | -14.9% | -19.5% | -21.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/25/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/28/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/28/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/10/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/16/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/4/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | Reported | 755.00 Mil | 780.00 Mil | 805.00 Mil | ||||
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 140.00 Mil | 142.50 Mil | 145.00 Mil | ||||
| Q3 2026 Net Income | Reported | 45.00 Mil | 46.50 Mil | 48.00 Mil | ||||
| Q3 2026 EPS | Reported | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.37 | ||||
| Q4 2026 Revenue | Reported | 758.00 Mil | 783.00 Mil | 808.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 137.00 Mil | 139.50 Mil | 142.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2026 Net Income | Reported | 37.00 Mil | 39.00 Mil | 41.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2026 EPS | Reported | 0.28 | 0.3 | 0.31 | ||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 2.95 Bil | 3.00 Bil | 3.05 Bil | -0.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.02 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 550.00 Mil | 555.00 Mil | 560.00 Mil | Raised | Guidance: 535.00 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Net Income | Reported | 168.00 Mil | 171.50 Mil | 175.00 Mil | Raised | |||
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 1.27 | 1.3 | 1.32 | Raised | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 135.00 Mil | 140.00 Mil | 145.00 Mil | -6.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 150.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | Reported | 715.00 Mil | 720.00 Mil | 725.00 Mil | 5.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 685.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 130.00 Mil | 132.50 Mil | 135.00 Mil | 21.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 109.50 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 2.95 Bil | 3.02 Bil | 3.10 Bil | 0.8% | Raised | Guidance: 3.00 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 525.00 Mil | 535.00 Mil | 545.00 Mil | 7.0% | Raised | Guidance: 500.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 137.50 Mil | 150.00 Mil | 162.50 Mil | 9.1% | Raised | Guidance: 137.50 Mil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Quarterly Revenue | Reported | 680.00 Mil | 685.00 Mil | 690.00 Mil | 3.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 663.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 107.00 Mil | 109.50 Mil | 112.00 Mil | -10.2% | Lower New | Guidance: 122.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 GAAP Net Income per diluted share | Reported | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.19 | -28.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 0.25 for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Annual Revenue | Reported | 2.90 Bil | 3.00 Bil | 3.10 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 490.00 Mil | 500.00 Mil | 510.00 Mil | 8.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 460.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 GAAP Net Income per diluted share | Reported | 0.99 | 1.03 | 1.07 | -43.7% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.83 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 120.00 Mil | 137.50 Mil | 155.00 Mil | -32.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 202.50 Mil for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | Reported | 651.00 Mil | 663.50 Mil | 676.00 Mil | -0.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 665.50 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 117.00 Mil | 122.00 Mil | 127.00 Mil | ||||
| Q4 2025 GAAP Net Income per diluted share | Reported | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.27 | ||||
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 455.00 Mil | 460.00 Mil | 465.00 Mil | -3.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 477.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 GAAP Net Income per diluted share | Reported | 1.81 | 1.83 | 1.85 | -10.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.04 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Net Income per diluted share | Reported | 0.84 | 0.86 | 0.87 | ||||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 200.00 Mil | 202.50 Mil | 205.00 Mil | -1.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 205.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/15/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albence, Matthew | Senior VP, Client Relations | Direct | Sell | 9152026 | 31.45 | 11,797 | 371,075 | 2,755,507 | Form |
| 2 | Albence, Matthew | Senior VP, Client Relations | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 31.69 | 10,000 | 316,860 | 3,149,542 | Form |
| 3 | Koren, Lindsay L | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 31.30 | 3,500 | 109,568 | 459,385 | Form | |
| 4 | Kernan, Scott Michael | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 15.24 | 6,633 | 101,087 | 412,425 | Form | |
| 5 | Zoley, George C | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 9102025 | 21.52 | 31,176 | 670,929 | 82,874,150 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albence, Matthew | Senior VP, Client Relations | Direct | Sell | 9152026 | 31.45 | 11,797 | 371,075 | 2,755,507 | Form |
| 2 | Albence, Matthew | Senior VP, Client Relations | Direct | Sell | 8242026 | 31.69 | 10,000 | 316,860 | 3,149,542 | Form |
| 3 | Koren, Lindsay L | Direct | Sell | 8172026 | 31.30 | 3,500 | 109,568 | 459,385 | Form | |
| 4 | Kernan, Scott Michael | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 15.24 | 6,633 | 101,087 | 412,425 | Form | |
| 5 | Zoley, George C | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 9102025 | 21.52 | 31,176 | 670,929 | 82,874,150 | Form |
| 6 | Zoley, George C | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 9102025 | 20.52 | 31,176 | 639,794 | 79,668,046 | Form |
| 7 | Zoley, George C | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 9102025 | 20.51 | 31,176 | 639,345 | 80,251,489 | Form |
| 8 | Zoley, George C | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 21.00 | 29,876 | 627,247 | 82,840,643 | Form |
| 9 | Zoley, George C | Executive Chairman | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 21.05 | 31,177 | 656,307 | 83,690,524 | Form |
| 10 | Zoley, George C | Executive Chairman | the Holly A. Meehan Trust | Sell | 9022025 | 20.56 | 10,480 | Form | ||
| 11 | Zoley, George C | Executive Chairman | the Christopher N. Zoley Trust | Sell | 9022025 | 20.56 | 10,490 | Form | ||
| 12 | Zoley, George C | Executive Chairman | the Holly A. Meehan Trust | Sell | 9022025 | 20.81 | 10,480 | 218,089 | 218,089 | Form |
| 13 | Zoley, George C | Executive Chairman | the Christopher N. Zoley Trust | Sell | 9022025 | 20.81 | 10,490 | 218,297 | 218,297 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 22, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd | $76.4 Mil | 15.4% | 5 | TRIM -19.5% | 13F |
| Continental General Insurance Co | $96.0 Mil | 13.8% | 11 | ADD +21.9% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $33.5 Mil | 6.3% | 31 | ADD +36.6% | 13F |
| Findell Capital Management LLC | $14.7 Mil | 4.3% | 17 | ADD +34.6% | 13F |
| Philosophy Capital Management LLC | $28.9 Mil | 3.4% | 36 | ADD +5.7% | 13F |
| Park West Asset Management LLC | $24.5 Mil | 2.2% | 48 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Park West Asset Management LLC | $24.5 Mil | 2.2% | 48 | New | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $33.5 Mil | 6.3% | 31 | ADD +36.6% | 13F |
| Findell Capital Management LLC | $14.7 Mil | 4.3% | 17 | ADD +34.6% | 13F |
| Continental General Insurance Co | $96.0 Mil | 13.8% | 11 | ADD +21.9% | 13F |
| Philosophy Capital Management LLC | $28.9 Mil | 3.4% | 36 | ADD +5.7% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carronade Capital Management, LP | $16.0 Mil | 1.5% | 25 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Highland Peak Capital, LLC | $8.1 Mil | 3.1% | 12 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Wolf Hill Capital Management, LP | $6.4 Mil | 0.7% | 22 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd | $76.4 Mil | 15.4% | 5 | TRIM -19.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Continental General Insurance Co | $96.0 Mil | 13.8% | 11 | ADD +21.9% | 13F |
| Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd | $76.4 Mil | 15.4% | 5 | TRIM -19.5% | 13F |
| KCM Capital Inc | $33.5 Mil | 6.3% | 31 | ADD +36.6% | 13F |
| Philosophy Capital Management LLC | $28.9 Mil | 3.4% | 36 | ADD +5.7% | 13F |
| Park West Asset Management LLC | $24.5 Mil | 2.2% | 48 | New | 13F |
| Findell Capital Management LLC | $14.7 Mil | 4.3% | 17 | ADD +34.6% | 13F |
Industry Resources
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Core Cache Last Updated: 10/21/2026