Amentum (AMTM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $28.72 | Market Cap: $7.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Diversified Support Services
Amentum (AMTM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $28.72Market Cap: $7.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Diversified Support Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.8% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 65% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Datacenter Power. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 110x | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Datacenter Power. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.8% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 65% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 110x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
AMTM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining Amentum's (AMTM) stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
**1. Strong Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results and Positive Guidance.**
Amentum announced robust fourth-quarter fiscal year 2025 results on November 24, 2025, reporting revenues of $3.93 billion, which surpassed consensus estimates of $3.60 billion. The company also posted an adjusted EBITDA of $300.0 million, exceeding the expected $283.0 million, and delivered free cash flow of $261.0 million, above expectations. This strong performance, along with an 11% increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share year-over-year, allowed the company to meet or exceed its guidance across all key metrics. Furthermore, Amentum's fiscal year 2026 guidance, particularly its approximately 3% organic growth outlook, was perceived positively by investors.
**2. Major Space Force Range Contract Award.**
On August 18, 2025, Amentum, through its subsidiary Jacobs Technology Inc., secured a significant 10-year indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) Space Force Range Contract (SFRC) from the United States Space Force (USSF), with a ceiling value of $4 billion. This contract, set to begin on December 1, 2025, involves providing systems engineering, cybersecurity, integration, logistics, sustainment, operations, and program management solutions to modernize the Launch and Test Range System (LTRS) across Eastern and Western Ranges.
**3. Other Significant Contract Wins.**
Beyond the Space Force contract, Amentum secured additional substantial contracts. Notably, on November 12, 2025, the company won a U.S. Air Force Air Combat Command contract valued at up to $995 million for maintenance support of the MQ-9 Reaper drone program over five years. Amentum also obtained prime positions on a multi-billion pound Sellafield Decommissioning Framework in the UK by October 31, 2025.
**4. Multiple Analyst Upgrades and Raised Price Targets.**
Following the positive earnings and contract announcements, several financial firms upgraded Amentum's stock ratings and significantly increased their price targets. On November 26, 2025, Morgan Stanley upgraded Amentum from Underweight to Equalweight and raised its price target to $35.00 from $20.00. On the same day, Citizens raised its price target to $35.00 from $30.00, and Truist Securities increased its target to $34.00 from $30.00. RBC Capital also lifted its price target to $30.00 from $26.00. Further bolstering investor confidence, Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to $40.00 from $35.00 on December 2, 2025, citing stronger-than-anticipated growth.
**5. Strategic Positioning in Key Growth Markets.**
Analysts highlighted Amentum's strategic advantages in rapidly accelerating markets. Specifically, the company's strong incumbency as a leading government services provider, particularly its significant role in the commercial nuclear power sector (including projects like Savannah River and Sizewell C) and its management of 90% of America's nuclear infrastructure, was cited as a key growth driver. Truist Securities identified nuclear energy, digital infrastructure, and space systems as core growth segments contributing to Amentum's faster long-term organic growth outlook.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMTM Return | - | - | - | - | - | 37% | 37% |
| Peers Return | 19% | 25% | 4% | 33% | 23% | -11% | 127% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMTM Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 0% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 62% | 45% | 67% | 55% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMTM Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -22% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -11% | -17% | -7% | -3% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TRI, CBZ, CTAS, CPRT, LDOS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
AMTM has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 273 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -42.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 74.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 312 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1463 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/4/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Amentum Earnings Notes | ||
| Can Amentum Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | Return | |
| AMTM Dip Buy Analysis | ||
| Amentum (AMTM) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | |
| Amentum (AMTM) Revenue Comparison | Financials |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AMTM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Amentum
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 92.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 30.8 |
| Rev LTM | 8,966 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,869 |
| FCF LTM | 1,284 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,149 |
| CFO LTM | 1,653 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,546 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 20.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 30.8 |
| P/S | 4.6 |
| P/EBIT | 21.2 |
| P/E | 35.7 |
| P/CFO | 30.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -20.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -16.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 18.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -35.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -52.1% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/27/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/28/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2052025 | 10-Q 12/27/2024 |
| 9302024 | 12172024 | 10-K 9/27/2024 |
| 6302024 | 9092024 | 10-12B/A 6/28/2024 |
| 12312023 | 5102024 | DRS/A 12/29/2023 |
| 9302023 | 7152024 | 10-12B 9/29/2023 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |