Deep Fission (FISN)
Market Price (9/18/2026): $8.17 | Market Cap: $450.2 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Deep Fission (FISN)
Market Price (9/18/2026): $8.17Market Cap: $450.2 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Datacenter Power. Themes include Mini Nuclear. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% | Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -57 Mil Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% Key risksFISN key risks include [1] demonstrating its unproven deep-borehole reactor technology, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Datacenter Power. Themes include Mini Nuclear. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -63%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97% |
| Very low revenueRev LTMTotal Revenue or Sales, Last Twelve Months is 0 |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -57 Mil |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -17% |
| Key risksFISN key risks include [1] demonstrating its unproven deep-borehole reactor technology, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Deep Fission (FISN) stock has lost about 25% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deep Fission reported substantial net losses in fiscal Q2 2026 and raised significant doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern.
For the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026, the company recorded a net loss of $31.0 million, with operating expenses surging to $31.6 million, compared to $2.1 million in the prior-year period. The cumulative net loss for the first half of fiscal 2026 reached $52.4 million. Despite securing $80.0 million from a private placement in February 2026 and $34.3 million in net IPO proceeds in June 2026, management explicitly stated "substantial doubt" regarding the company's ability to fund planned operations for the subsequent 12 months without additional financing.
2. The company's Initial Public Offering (IPO) in June 2026 underperformed expectations, and the stock experienced significant post-IPO decline.
Deep Fission initially targeted an IPO price range of $24.00 to $26.00 per share, but the offering was ultimately priced at $16.00 per share on June 18, 2026. Following its debut, the stock traded substantially below its IPO price, reaching an all-time low of $6.10 by August 31, 2026. This downturn has been attributed to factors such as technical selling, limited market awareness, and skepticism regarding the company's early development stage.
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Deep Fission (FISN) stock has lost about 25% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Deep Fission reported substantial net losses in fiscal Q2 2026 and raised significant doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern.
For the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026, the company recorded a net loss of $31.0 million, with operating expenses surging to $31.6 million, compared to $2.1 million in the prior-year period. The cumulative net loss for the first half of fiscal 2026 reached $52.4 million. Despite securing $80.0 million from a private placement in February 2026 and $34.3 million in net IPO proceeds in June 2026, management explicitly stated "substantial doubt" regarding the company's ability to fund planned operations for the subsequent 12 months without additional financing.
2. The company's Initial Public Offering (IPO) in June 2026 underperformed expectations, and the stock experienced significant post-IPO decline.
Deep Fission initially targeted an IPO price range of $24.00 to $26.00 per share, but the offering was ultimately priced at $16.00 per share on June 18, 2026. Following its debut, the stock traded substantially below its IPO price, reaching an all-time low of $6.10 by August 31, 2026. This downturn has been attributed to factors such as technical selling, limited market awareness, and skepticism regarding the company's early development stage.
3. Deep Fission disclosed ineffective internal controls over financial reporting as of fiscal Q2 2026.
As of June 30, 2026 (fiscal Q2 2026), the company's disclosure controls and procedures were deemed "not effective." This finding stemmed from previously identified material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting, which had led to prior financial restatements related to SAFE Note valuation and stock-based compensation.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FISN | -26.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.8% | 25.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | -2.4% | -5.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FISN | -26.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.5% | 25.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | -4.3% | -5.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FISN | -26.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.2% | 25.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.3% | -5.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FISN | -26.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.3% | 25.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 62.7% | -5.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FISN Return | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -36% | -36% |
| Peers Return | 24% | -2% | 10% | 150% | 127% | -22% | 492% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FISN Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 40% | 48% | 56% | 66% | 63% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FISN Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -56% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -30% | -35% | -46% | -52% | -51% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BWXT, GEV, SMR, LEU, OKLO.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/17/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FISN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5371 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Deep Fission's stock fell -22.9% during the 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion. Such a loss loss requires a 29.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | FISN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5371 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Deep Fission's stock fell -22.9% during the 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion. Such a loss loss requires a 29.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Deep Fission (FISN)
Deep Fission, Inc. (FISN) is a nuclear energy technology company focused on developing its innovative "Gravity Reactor." This reactor is a small modular reactor (SMR) that uses established pressurized water reactor (PWR) technology but with a unique twist: it's designed to be emplaced approximately one mile below the Earth's surface in deep boreholes. This subsurface placement leverages natural conditions like hydrostatic pressure and surrounding geology for containment, cooling, and shielding, thereby reducing the reliance on large surface containment structures and other safety infrastructure. The goal is to achieve faster deployment, improved security, enhanced safety, and lower capital and operating costs compared to conventional nuclear plants, while also reducing exposure to environmental hazards.
Each 3x3 Gravity Reactor is designed to produce up to 15 megawatts of electric power, with the potential for multiple reactors to be grouped in clusters at a single site to achieve hundreds or thousands of MWe capacity. Deep Fission's commercialization strategy targets the surging global demand for energy, specifically highlighting "the AI-driven surge." The company is currently in the development stage, participating in the U.S. Department of Energy Reactor Pilot Program, and has already drilled its first data acquisition well. Deep Fission aims to demonstrate its system, obtain DOE authorization, and apply for commercial licensing with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission as early as the first half of 2027, anticipating revenue recognition approximately one year after construction begins.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Deep Fission:
Imagine NuScale Power, but for nuclear reactors designed to be buried a mile underground.
It's like a utility such as Constellation Energy, but focused on developing and deploying small, modular nuclear reactors deep below the earth's surface to provide power.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Gravity Reactor: A small modular reactor (SMR) designed for deep borehole emplacement, leveraging subsurface conditions to produce up to 15 MWe of electric power.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Deep Fission (FISN) is a nuclear energy technology company currently in the development stage. According to the provided description, the company was incorporated in July 2023, and the Gravity Reactor remains in conceptual and early engineering stages. Deep Fission has not yet constructed or operated a commercial reactor or generated revenue.
Therefore, Deep Fission currently does not have any major customers. The company aims for commercialization in the next three years.
Based on the nature of their product—small modular reactors (SMRs) designed to produce 15 megawatts of electric power output (MWe) for standalone installations or clustered sites capable of supplying hundreds to thousands of MWe—their prospective customers would be entities requiring substantial, reliable electricity generation. These would likely include:
- Electric utility companies
- Large industrial enterprises (e.g., data centers, manufacturing facilities)
- Government agencies or military installations
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Liz Muller, Co-Founder & CEO, Board Chair
As Co-Founder and CEO of Deep Fission, Liz Muller leads the development and commercialization of an underground nuclear energy system. She is a serial nuclear entrepreneur with a track record of building organizations, and previously co-founded and served as CEO of Deep Isolation, a nuclear waste disposal company, where she now serves as Board Chair. Muller also co-founded Berkeley Earth, a climate science nonprofit.
William Mark Schmitz, Chief Financial Officer
William Mark Schmitz brings over 40 years of financial leadership experience across various capital-intensive industries to Deep Fission. He has served as CFO for major organizations including Goodyear, Itron, Plug Power, and Alghanim Industries, and has experience scaling companies and leading financial turnarounds. He also held leadership roles across multiple international markets.
Rich Muller, Co-Founder & CTO
Rich Muller is a co-founder and CTO of Deep Fission, and also a co-founder of Deep Isolation. He is a Professor Emeritus of Physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a prolific inventor with over 80 issued patents. His research on deeply buried nuclear waste has earned him numerous awards, including the MacArthur “Genius” Prize.
Mike Brasel, Chief Operating Officer
Mike Brasel possesses nearly three decades of experience in the nuclear industry, having held senior roles at NuScale Power where he managed multi-billion-dollar nuclear projects and led supply chain development. His background also includes serving as Plant Manager of the La Crosse Boiling Water Reactor and as a U.S. Navy Nuclear Plant Operator.
Stacy Tarver Patterson, Chief Marketing Officer
Stacy Tarver Patterson leads narrative strategy, market positioning, and go-to-market development for advanced nuclear energy deployment at Deep Fission. She has 19 years of experience in global marketing strategy, digital product growth, and brand transformation for technology and consumer platforms.
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Key Risks to Deep Fission (FISN)
- Technical and Operational Execution Risk: Deep Fission is in the early conceptual and engineering stages, having not yet constructed or operated a commercial reactor. The company faces significant, unproven technical and operational challenges in demonstrating its core technology, including successfully drilling commercial-scale boreholes, safely deploying a prototype reactor a mile underground, and integrating it into an energy ecosystem within an ambitious timeline.
- Regulatory Approval and Licensing Risk: The commercial viability of Deep Fission's Gravity Reactor is entirely contingent on obtaining authorization from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and commercial licenses from the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for its novel deep borehole small modular reactor (SMR) design. The company is targeting aggressive timelines for these approvals, with a commercial license application to the NRC in the first half of 2027 and high-volume commercial licensing as early as 2027, which presents a substantial risk given the stringent and often lengthy regulatory processes for nuclear technologies.
- Commercialization and Revenue Generation Risk: As a development-stage company with no commercial reactor operations or generated revenue, Deep Fission faces significant challenges in transitioning from development to commercial deployment. Even if technical and regulatory hurdles are overcome, there there is a risk in achieving high-volume commercial deployment, securing market adoption, and realizing revenue targets, particularly given the anticipated lag between the start of construction and revenue recognition.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
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Deep Fission (FISN) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, stemming directly from its phased commercialization strategy for the Gravity Reactor:
- Conversion of Pilot Reactors to Commercial Operation: Deep Fission aims to demonstrate the Gravity Reactor and apply for a commercial license with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in the first half of 2027, intending to convert the same pilot reactor to commercial operation. This initial commercial operation of pilot wells is expected to be the company's first source of revenue.
- High-Volume Commercial Licensing and Clustered Deployment at Single Sites: As part of its third deployment phase, the company targets seeking high-volume commercial licensing with the NRC as early as 2027 for the deployment of multiple reactors at a single site through clustered boreholes. This strategy allows for larger installations capable of supplying hundreds and potentially thousands of MWe of generation capacity, driving significant revenue growth per site.
- Expansion to Multiple Sites: Following initial single-site deployments, Deep Fission plans to expand its commercial operations to multiple sites, increasing its overall market reach and power generation capacity across different locations.
- Capitalizing on AI-Driven Energy Demand: Deep Fission is strategically positioning its Gravity Reactor to meet the rapidly increasing demand for energy, particularly from AI-driven sectors. The ability to achieve deployment milestones on a timeline sufficient to address this surge in demand is a critical objective for the company, indicating a large potential market for its power generation.
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Inbound Investments
- Deep Fission is currently participating in the U.S. Department of Energy (“DOE”) Reactor Pilot Program, through which it expects to demonstrate its system.
Capital Expenditures
- Deep Fission has commenced initial field development activities at its Kansas Site, including drilling its first data acquisition well up to 6,000 feet deep.
- The company plans to focus the balance of this year and into early 2027 on the delivery of key components for full-system installation, including well casing, its reactor canister, heat exchanger, and LEU fabrication and loading.
- Deep Fission has a long-term lease for approximately 100 acres located within the Great Plains Industrial Park in Parsons, Kansas, for its development activities.
Peer Outperformance in Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 8.3% | 99.4% | 179.9% | CDNL 2342% · FIX 2211% · STRL 2120% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 84.2% | 67.1% | 173.1% | HOS 45058% · MATX 201% · SFL 173% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 9.9% | 53.8% | 127.5% | CAT 336% · ALSN 261% · WAB 228% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -3.6% | 71.1% | 75.2% | ATI 996% · FTAI 988% · HWM 639% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 29.7% | 60.6% | 49.8% | FSTR 142% · CSX 69% · UNP 57% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 5.8% | 37.3% | 49.5% | DXPE 565% · AIT 296% · WCC 208% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components ← | 72 | 8.4% | 45.6% | 40.4% | CRS 1265% · PSIX 1083% · EROC 641% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 12.8% | 29.9% | 32.6% | LIME 3393% · TH 486% · WLFC 371% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 35.2% | -0.7% | 30.1% | XPO 247% · R 243% · CVLG 206% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -24.8% | 43.1% | 27.2% | UBER 78% · CAR 27% · LYFT -70% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 41 | 6.3% | 55.7% | 20.2% | POWL 2370% · BE 1335% · VRT 923% |
| Building Products | 33 | -13.4% | 0.9% | 19.2% | LMB 675% · GFF 372% · PPIH 288% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 8.1% | 2.3% | 5.5% | RCMT 471% · CSW 142% · HHS 72% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -10.3% | 23.4% | -4.9% | CECO 952% · GEO 358% · ADUR 353% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 8.0% | 4.1% | -7.3% | BLBD 193% · DE 110% · GENC 52% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -13.5% | -24.6% | -9.1% | HURN 203% · CRAI 92% · GRNQ 55% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -33.0% | -15.3% | -24.9% | EXLS 45% · BR 8% · G -23% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 2.9% | 8.5% | -29.7% | LTM 3105% · UAL 142% · DAL 105% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 9.9% | 23.8% | -33.5% | PBI 202% · TILE 142% · HNI 47% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 5.6% | -19.3% | -36.6% | BBSI 91% · ADP 53% · PAYX 25% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -11.6% | -20.4% | -37.7% | CHRW 98% · FDX 65% · EXPD 62% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -22.4% | 14.2% | -44.5% | CIX 153% · MG 117% · NL 67% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -72.3% | -79.5% | -58.3% | JOBY -33% · ASLE -58% · UP -100% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 93.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.1 |
| Rev LTM | 242 |
| Op Inc LTM | -25 |
| FCF LTM | -105 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -18 |
| CFO LTM | -51 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 22 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 14.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -91.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -11.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -34.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
Price Behavior
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.90 | 1.53 | 1.33 | 0.65 | 0.39 | 0.09 |
| Up Beta | -2.43 | -1.38 | -0.26 | -0.22 | -0.02 | -0.01 |
| Down Beta | 0.05 | 2.17 | -1.91 | -1.09 | -0.51 | -0.14 |
| Up Capture | -7% | 60% | 216% | 82% | 37% | 4% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 18 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Down Capture | 776% | 429% | 333% | 194% | 121% | 67% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 24 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FISN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISN | -44.4% | 101.6% | -1.85 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.52 | -5.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.6% | 12.9% | 0.92 | 25.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.4% | 29.3% | 0.55 | 34.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.8% | 20.7% | 1.72 | 14.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 13.5% | 0.16 | -7.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -34.9% | 43.9% | -0.85 | 17.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FISN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISN | -11.0% | 101.6% | -1.85 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.2% | 17.6% | 0.53 | -5.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.2% | 0.56 | 25.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.9% | 18.8% | 0.81 | 34.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 19.6% | 0.47 | 14.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.0% | 18.8% | -0.05 | -7.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.4% | 52.5% | 0.38 | 17.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FISN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISN | -5.7% | 101.6% | -1.85 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.0% | 20.1% | 0.57 | -5.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 18.0% | 0.71 | 25.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.4% | 0.60 | 34.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.5% | 18.1% | 0.39 | 14.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.4% | 20.7% | 0.17 | -7.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 62.0% | 66.1% | 1.02 | 17.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 18, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
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| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components Resources |
| Machine Design |
| Modern Machine Shop |
| Industrial Equipment News (IEN) |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| FinViz |
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