Willis Lease Finance (WLFC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $128.86 | Market Cap: $877.9 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors
Willis Lease Finance (WLFC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $128.86Market Cap: $877.9 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Trading Companies & Distributors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.8% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 238% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -60% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Aviation Industry. Themes include Commercial Aircraft Engine Leasing, and Aircraft Engine MRO & Asset Management. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 9.8% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 40% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Global Aviation Industry. Themes include Commercial Aircraft Engine Leasing, and Aircraft Engine MRO & Asset Management. |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 238% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -60% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WLFC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why Willis Lease Finance (WLFC) stock moved by -14.7% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Per Share Miss: Despite reporting a 25.4% increase in total revenue for the third quarter of 2025, Willis Lease Finance's earnings per share (EPS) of $3.25 missed the consensus analyst estimate of $3.34. This earnings miss, even amid strong revenue growth, likely contributed to a negative market reaction.
2. Increased Operating Costs and Asset Write-downs: The company faced pressure from increased General & Administrative (G&A) expenses, which rose 22.9% year-over-year in Q3 2025 due to higher consulting, personnel, and share-based compensation costs. Additionally, recurring asset write-downs continued, with $10.2 million in impairment recognized on eight engines during the quarter.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WLFC Return | -48% | 24% | 57% | -17% | 333% | -42% | 110% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 36% | -10% | 40% | 9% | 6% | 148% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WLFC Win Rate | 50% | 42% | 42% | 58% | 75% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 50% | 28% | 50% | 48% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WLFC Max Drawdown | -75% | -11% | -19% | -37% | -5% | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -2% | -25% | -6% | -8% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WSO, UHAL, URI, FERG, FAST.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WLFC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -41.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 69.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 346 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -75.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 311.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 966 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1749 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 325 days | 1480 days |
Compare to WSO, UHAL, URI, FERG, FAST
In The Past
Willis Lease Finance's stock fell -41.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/9/2023. A -41.0% loss requires a 69.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WLFC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Willis Lease Finance
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 189.64 |
| Mkt Cap | 30.4 |
| Rev LTM | 7,706 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,175 |
| FCF LTM | 484 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 493 |
| CFO LTM | 1,415 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,406 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 21.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 30.4 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 17.2 |
| P/E | 26.8 |
| P/CFO | 17.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -15.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 72.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -18.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -28.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3142022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Willis Austin Chandler | Chief Executive Officer | 11052025 | Sell | 125.74 | 1,496 | 188,111 | 23,207,953 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |