CECO Environmental (CECO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $54.5 | Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services
CECO Environmental (CECO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $54.5Market Cap: $1.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.8%, Dist 3Y High is -1.8% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 104% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Wastewater Management, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4% | |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 92% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Wastewater Management, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.8%, Dist 3Y High is -1.8% |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 104% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 92% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CECO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the stock movement for CECO Environmental (CECO) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Performance. CECO Environmental reported robust results for the third quarter of 2025, with orders increasing by 44% to $232.9 million, backlog growing by 64% to $719.6 million, and revenue rising by 46% to $197.6 million year-over-year. The company also saw a 62% increase in Adjusted EBITDA to $23.2 million and a 71% surge in free cash flow to $19.0 million.
2. Exceeding Analyst Expectations for Q3 2025. The company surpassed analyst consensus estimates for its third-quarter performance, reporting a non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.26 against an estimated $0.25. Additionally, quarterly revenue of $197.60 million exceeded analyst estimates of $190.36 million.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CECO Return | -9% | -10% | 87% | 74% | 49% | 73% | 583% |
| Peers Return | 77% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 49% | 6% | 206% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CECO Win Rate | 42% | 33% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 56% | 46% | 48% | 56% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CECO Max Drawdown | -52% | -15% | -32% | -8% | -8% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -37% | -31% | -24% | -18% | -4% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WM, CWST, GEO, FTEK, MDRN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CECO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -54.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -71.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 252.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 211 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -90.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 968.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1792 days | 1480 days |
Compare to WM, CWST, GEO, FTEK, MDRN
In The Past
CECO Environmental's stock fell -54.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/8/2021. A -54.4% loss requires a 119.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CECO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CECO Environmental
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 54.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.4 |
| Rev LTM | 1,795 |
| Op Inc LTM | 93 |
| FCF LTM | 26 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 74 |
| CFO LTM | 208 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 257 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 15.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 14.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.4 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | 18.6 |
| P/E | 34.7 |
| P/CFO | 15.2 |
| Total Yield | 2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 32.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -23.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -30.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3052024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3062023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3142022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
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