Gencor Industries (GENC)
Market Price (1/19/2026): $13.97 | Market Cap: $204.8 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Gencor Industries (GENC)
Market Price (1/19/2026): $13.97Market Cap: $204.8 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 67x |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -66% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -10.0% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% | Key risksGENC key risks include [1] its significant dependence on government infrastructure spending and [2] identified material weaknesses in its internal financial controls. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, and Green Building Materials. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -66% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 45% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Resource Efficiency Solutions, and Green Building Materials. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -46% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 67x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -10.0% |
| Key risksGENC key risks include [1] its significant dependence on government infrastructure spending and [2] identified material weaknesses in its internal financial controls. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Gencor Industries reported an increase in revenue and earnings for fiscal year 2025. The company released its fourth-quarter and fiscal year 2025 results on December 9, 2025, showing a 2.01% increase in revenue and a 7.58% rise in earnings compared to the previous year.
2. Freedom Capital Markets initiated coverage of Gencor Industries with a "buy" recommendation. This positive analyst coverage began on January 7, 2026, which can often boost investor confidence and stock price.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.9% change in GENC stock from 10/31/2025 to 1/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 5.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| 10312025 | 1182026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.59 | 13.99 | 2.94% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 117.53 | 115.44 | -1.78% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.93% | 13.57% | 4.95% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.11 | 13.09 | -0.14% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14.66 | 14.66 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.94% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 1/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GENC | 2.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.4% | 30.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 7.6% | 44.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -4.0% change in GENC stock from 7/31/2025 to 1/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 7312025 | 1182026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.58 | 13.99 | -4.05% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 118.56 | 115.44 | -2.64% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.85% | 13.57% | 14.49% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.21 | 13.09 | -13.92% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14.66 | 14.66 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -4.05% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 1/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GENC | -4.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.7% | 36.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.2% | 47.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.1% change in GENC stock from 1/31/2025 to 1/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 1312025 | 1182026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 15.39 | 13.99 | -9.10% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 113.12 | 115.44 | 2.05% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.33% | 13.57% | -5.34% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.92 | 13.09 | -5.90% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14.66 | 14.66 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.10% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 1/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GENC | -9.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.9% | 43.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 21.9% | 44.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 31.5% change in GENC stock from 1/31/2023 to 1/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 17.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| 1312023 | 1182026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 10.64 | 13.99 | 31.48% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 103.48 | 115.44 | 11.56% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.51 | 1.78 | 17.86% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 14.66 | 14.66 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 31.48% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 1/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GENC | 31.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 76.5% | 37.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 71.0% | 44.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GENC Return | -6% | -12% | 60% | 9% | -27% | 9% | 15% |
| Peers Return | 25% | -3% | 15% | -1% | 31% | 15% | 106% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 1% | 85% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GENC Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 42% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 42% | 48% | 48% | 57% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 100% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GENC Max Drawdown | -12% | -24% | 0% | -5% | -38% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -3% | -33% | -15% | -15% | -17% | 0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | 0% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ASTE, CAT, TEX, DE, OSK.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GENC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 240 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 151 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,675 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -100.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 6124900.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 67 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to ASTE, CAT, TEX, DE, OSK
In The Past
Gencor Industries's stock fell -44.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/12/2021. A -44.3% loss requires a 79.7% gain to breakeven.
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe Gencor Industries (GENC):
- The Caterpillar of asphalt plants and highway construction equipment.
- Like Komatsu, but specialized in machinery for producing asphalt and building roads.
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- Asphalt Plants: Equipment used for the production of asphalt pavement mixtures for road construction.
- Combustion Systems: Industrial burners and heating systems designed for various material processing applications.
- Concrete Plants: Equipment for producing concrete, including batch plants and related components.
- Soil Remediation Plants: Systems designed for the thermal treatment and remediation of contaminated soils.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Gencor Industries (GENC) sells primarily to other companies in the construction and materials production sectors. According to their latest annual report (10-K filing for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2023), no single customer accounted for more than 10% of their consolidated net sales in fiscal 2023, 2022, or 2021. Therefore, no specific major customer companies are individually identified by name in their public filings.
However, Gencor Industries serves the following categories of business customers:
- Road construction contractors
- Aggregate producers
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John E. Elliott, Chief Executive Officer
John Elliott serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Gencor Industries Inc. He previously held positions as Vice President and Board Member at Gencor Industries Inc..
Eric E. Mellen, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Eric Mellen is the Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer at Gencor Industries Inc. Prior to this role, he was the Director of Corporate Development at Gencor Industries Inc. He has also worked at Pricewaterhousecoopers and IBM Corp..
Emanuel J. Elliott, Executive Chairman
Emanuel J. Elliott is the Executive Chairman of Gencor Industries, Inc. He is also identified as a founder of the company.
Marc G. Elliott, President and Director
Marc G. Elliott holds the titles of President and Director at Gencor Industries, Inc.
Dennis Bryan Hunt, Senior Vice President-Sales
Dennis Bryan Hunt serves as the Senior Vice President-Sales for Gencor Industries Inc.
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Key Risks to Gencor Industries (GENC)
Gencor Industries, Inc. (GENC) faces several key risks primarily stemming from its strong ties to the highway construction industry and its operational controls. These include its significant dependence on government infrastructure spending, identified material weaknesses in internal financial controls, and vulnerability to supply chain disruptions and fluctuations in raw material prices.
- Dependence on Government Infrastructure Spending and Cyclicality of the Highway Construction Industry
Gencor Industries' core business revolves around manufacturing heavy machinery and equipment for highway construction materials, such as asphalt plants and pavers. Consequently, the company's financial performance is heavily influenced by government infrastructure spending, particularly federal and state funding for road projects. The industry is cyclical, and unpredictable changes or reductions in this funding, such as the upcoming expiration of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in 2026, could significantly impact demand for Gencor's products and its overall revenue. - Material Weaknesses in Internal Control over Financial Reporting
A significant risk highlighted in recent reports is the existence of material weaknesses in Gencor's internal control over financial reporting. These control weaknesses could impair the company's ability to accurately and timely report its financial results, potentially leading to misstatements and increasing its overall risk profile. This internal issue directly affects the reliability and transparency of the company's financial information. - Supply Chain Disruptions and Raw Material Price Fluctuations
As a manufacturer, Gencor is susceptible to disruptions in its supply chain, particularly its reliance on third-party suppliers for critical raw materials such as carbon steel. Such disruptions could lead to shortages of essential components or increased acquisition costs. Furthermore, fluctuations in the prices of raw materials like carbon steel and liquid asphalt can directly impact the company's manufacturing costs and, consequently, its financial performance. While Gencor monitors prices and adjusts its own pricing, significant volatility can still pose a challenge.
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Gencor Industries (symbol: GENC) manufactures heavy machinery primarily for the highway construction industry, with key products including asphalt plants, asphalt pavers, combustion systems, fluid heat transfer systems, soil remediation plants, and aggregate drying and screening equipment.
- Asphalt Plants: The global market size for asphalt mixing plants was estimated at approximately USD 5.21 billion in 2023. In North America, the asphalt mixing plant market generated approximately USD 1.269 billion in equipment revenue in 2024.
- Asphalt Pavers: null
- Combustion Systems and Fluid Heat Transfer Systems: null
- Soil Remediation Plants: null
- Aggregate Equipment (including drying and screening equipment): The global aggregate equipment market size was projected at USD 5.2 billion in 2023. For North America, the aggregate equipment market size was valued at around USD 1.1 billion in 2023.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Gencor Industries (GENC)
Over the next 2-3 years, Gencor Industries (GENC) is expected to see revenue growth driven by several key factors within the highway construction and materials industry. These drivers are largely influenced by government infrastructure spending, the ongoing need for equipment upgrades, and Gencor's commitment to technological advancements. Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth: * Increased Highway Construction Funding: Demand for Gencor's heavy machinery, which is primarily used by highway construction firms, is significantly influenced by federal, state, and local government highway funding. The company's products contribute to infrastructure development, and demand is heavily influenced by government highway spending programs like the IIJ Act, which provides substantial federal funding for highway projects until September 30, 2026. This sustained governmental investment in infrastructure is expected to translate into continued demand for Gencor's asphalt plants, pavers, and related equipment. * Replacement and Upgrade Cycle of Existing Asphalt Plants: A significant driver of revenue is the continuous need for highway construction firms to replace and upgrade their existing asphalt plants. As older equipment reaches the end of its lifecycle or becomes less efficient, companies will seek out modern, more productive solutions, which Gencor aims to provide. * Demand for Larger, More Efficient, and Environmentally Friendly Equipment: There is an industry trend towards larger and more efficient asphalt plants. Gencor emphasizes product innovation, environmentally friendly processes, and extensive technical development, having pioneered industry-standard technologies such as counter-flow drum mix technology, which recaptures and burns emissions for cleaner, more efficient asphalt production. This focus on energy-efficient and environmentally conscious equipment aligns with market demands and is expected to drive sales as customers seek to improve operational efficiency and comply with environmental regulations. * Growth in Parts and Service Revenue: Recent financial updates have indicated increased revenues from parts sales. As Gencor's installed base of equipment continues to operate, the recurring demand for spare parts, maintenance, and technical support is anticipated to be a consistent and growing contributor to the company's overall revenue. * Leveraging the Blaw-Knox Paver Business: The acquisition of the Blaw-Knox paver business and associated assets in 2020 expanded Gencor's product offerings to include highway class asphalt pavers. As the company integrates and further develops this well-recognized brand, the sales of these pavers are expected to contribute to revenue growth by offering a more comprehensive solution to highway construction customers.AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- Gencor Industries made no share repurchases during fiscal years 2023 and 2024.
Share Issuance
- The company did not issue any securities during fiscal years 2023 and 2024 that were not already registered under the Exchange Act.
- Common shares outstanding were 14.66 million as of September 30, 2024.
Outbound Investments
- On October 1, 2020, Gencor acquired the Blaw-Knox paver business and associated assets from Volvo Construction Equipment North America, LLC, expanding its product offerings to include highway class asphalt pavers.
- As of August 2025, the company's CEO has expressed interest in pursuing acquisition opportunities, leveraging Gencor's debt-free and cash-rich balance sheet.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were approximately $1.60 million in fiscal year 2024, $2.66 million in fiscal year 2023, and $4.52 million in fiscal year 2022.
- For the six months ended March 31, 2024, capital expenditures amounted to $378,000, primarily focused on building improvements and handling equipment.
- Capital expenditures for the years ended September 30, 2023, and September 30, 2022, totaling $2.746 million and $4.516 million respectively, were primarily directed towards manufacturing processing and finishing equipment.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Gencor Industries Earnings Notes | ||
| How Low Can Gencor Industries Stock Really Go? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons for Gencor Industries
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 106.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 6.9 |
| Rev LTM | 7,838 |
| Op Inc LTM | 674 |
| FCF LTM | 517 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 291 |
| CFO LTM | 693 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 495 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $13.99 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/15/2003 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -15.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $13.16 | $13.87 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 6.3% | 0.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.6% | 45.5% |
| Downside Capture | 79.53 | 136.08 |
| Upside Capture | 71.99 | 97.38 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 29.0% | 42.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.74 | 1.12 | 1.09 | 1.36 | 1.01 | 0.98 |
| Up Beta | 4.53 | 2.12 | 1.92 | 2.35 | 1.14 | 1.12 |
| Down Beta | 0.30 | 1.04 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.61 | 0.76 |
| Up Capture | -1% | 63% | 46% | 89% | 83% | 82% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 23 | 37 | 72 | 143 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 16 | 26 | 57 | 116 | 370 |
| Down Capture | 73% | 104% | 121% | 147% | 120% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 18 | 27 | 55 | 108 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 66 | 131 | 367 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| GENC vs. Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GENC | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | -13.0% | 25.4% | 19.8% | 70.5% | 3.8% | 10.2% | -1.0% |
| Annualized Volatility | 45.3% | 18.9% | 19.3% | 20.0% | 15.3% | 16.7% | 34.5% |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.18 | 1.06 | 0.81 | 2.56 | 0.04 | 0.41 | 0.07 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 44.3% | 42.5% | -6.2% | 13.1% | 33.7% | 27.9% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, Bitcoin = BTCUSD
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Based On 5-Year Data
| GENC vs. Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GENC | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 1.7% | 14.9% | 14.1% | 19.4% | 11.1% | 6.1% | 20.0% |
| Annualized Volatility | 36.6% | 17.2% | 17.1% | 15.6% | 18.7% | 18.8% | 48.1% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.14 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 1.00 | 0.47 | 0.23 | 0.45 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 37.3% | 32.2% | 2.5% | 10.8% | 26.0% | 17.7% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| GENC vs. Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GENC | Sector ETF | Equity | Gold | Commodities | Real Estate | Bitcoin | |
| Annualized Return | 5.6% | 14.9% | 15.5% | 14.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 70.8% |
| Annualized Volatility | 35.5% | 19.9% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 20.8% | 55.7% |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.25 | 0.66 | 0.75 | 0.83 | 0.35 | 0.25 | 0.91 |
| Correlation With Other Assets | 42.0% | 37.5% | -0.8% | 14.5% | 30.2% | 11.9% | |
ETFs used for asset classes: Sector ETF = XLI, Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ, Bitcoin = BTCUSD
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 12/09/2025 | 10-K (09/30/2025) |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/08/2025 | 10-Q (06/30/2025) |
| 03/31/2025 | 07/25/2025 | 10-Q (03/31/2025) |
| 12/31/2024 | 07/25/2025 | 10-Q (12/31/2024) |
| 09/30/2024 | 06/27/2025 | 10-K (09/30/2024) |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/09/2024 | 10-Q (06/30/2024) |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/10/2024 | 10-Q (03/31/2024) |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/06/2024 | 10-Q (12/31/2023) |
| 09/30/2023 | 12/13/2023 | 10-K (09/30/2023) |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q (06/30/2023) |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/12/2023 | 10-Q (03/31/2023) |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/10/2023 | 10-Q (12/31/2022) |
| 09/30/2022 | 12/16/2022 | 10-K (09/30/2022) |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/12/2022 | 10-Q (06/30/2022) |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/13/2022 | 10-Q (03/31/2022) |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/11/2022 | 10-Q (12/31/2021) |
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