Tearsheet

Covenant Logistics (CVLG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $22.6 | Market Cap: $565.7 Mil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation

Covenant Logistics (CVLG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $22.6
Market Cap: $565.7 Mil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.0%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.8%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
  Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.
  Key risks
CVLG key risks include [1] significant customer concentration, Show more.
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.0%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.8%
5 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%
6 Key risks
CVLG key risks include [1] significant customer concentration, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CVLG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

**1. Covenant Logistics reported Q3 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $0.44, which slightly missed analyst estimates, and a significant 22.5% decline in consolidated adjusted operating income to $15 million compared to the previous year.** **2. The company cited ongoing industry overcapacity and muted freight demand as key factors pressuring the trucking sector, which negatively impacted its performance, particularly in its truckload units.** **3. Rising operating costs, including increased insurance, wages, and maintenance expenses, combined with under-utilized equipment, significantly compressed margins across various segments, notably truckload and expedited.** **4. Covenant Logistics experienced an increase in its net indebtedness, rising by $48.6 million to $268.3 million. This resulted in an adjusted leverage ratio of approximately 2.1 times and a debt-to-capital ratio of 38.8%.** **5. Management offered a cautious outlook for the fourth quarter, with President Paul Bunn indicating that the company would face "pain before there's gain" despite optimism for market conditions from 2026 onwards.**

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CVLG Return15%78%32%35%19%-14%275%
Peers Return6%18%7%1%8%-20%17%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CVLG Win Rate50%83%58%58%58%42% 
Peers Win Rate58%60%40%43%45%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CVLG Max Drawdown-49%-3%-32%-13%-6%-35% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-6%-22%-18%-18%-40% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KNX, SNDR, WERN, HTLD, ULH.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCVLGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-47.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven91.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven103 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-58.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven138.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven98 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-62.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven168.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven686 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-88.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven780.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2,038 days1,480 days

Compare to XPO, R, WERN, ODFL, JBHT


In The Past

Covenant Logistics's stock fell -47.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/20/2021. A -47.7% loss requires a 91.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Covenant Logistics (CVLG)

Better Bets than Covenant Logistics (CVLG)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CVLG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Covenant Logistics

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CVLGKNXSNDRWERNHTLDULHMedian
NameCovenant.Knight-S.Schneide.Werner E.Heartlan.Universa. 
Mkt Price22.5952.6626.7530.549.2216.3024.67
Mkt Cap0.68.54.71.80.70.41.3
Rev LTM1,1467,4785,6142,9918691,6382,315
Op Inc LTM3632117554-518167
FCF LTM-30-62114-55-68-36-46
FCF 3Y Avg-65-232-88-6-62-34
CFO LTM110818651191112196193
CFO 3Y Avg111947699347155176261

Growth & Margins

CVLGKNXSNDRWERNHTLDULHMedian
NameCovenant.Knight-S.Schneide.Werner E.Heartlan.Universa. 
Rev Chg LTM1.6%-0.0%5.5%-3.4%-19.6%-7.5%-1.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-1.8%0.1%-5.0%-2.1%11.1%-6.6%-1.9%
Rev Chg Q3.1%2.7%10.4%3.5%-24.4%-7.0%2.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.8%0.7%2.5%0.9%-6.8%-1.8%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM3.1%4.3%3.1%1.8%-5.8%4.9%3.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg3.8%4.8%4.4%3.9%-2.1%8.5%4.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.8%0.0%-0.2%-1.0%-1.1%-2.3%-0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM9.6%10.9%11.6%6.4%12.9%11.9%11.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.8%13.1%12.6%10.9%14.2%10.3%11.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-2.7%-0.8%2.0%-1.8%-7.8%-2.2%-2.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-5.7%-0.0%0.6%-2.7%-0.9%-3.6%-1.8%

Valuation

CVLGKNXSNDRWERNHTLDULHMedian
NameCovenant.Knight-S.Schneide.Werner E.Heartlan.Universa. 
Mkt Cap0.68.54.71.80.70.41.3
P/S0.50.90.70.50.80.40.6
P/EBIT10.818.320.620.7-21.858.619.4
P/E16.845.132.562.3-20.5-15.324.7
P/CFO4.97.85.78.36.43.26.0
Total Yield7.2%3.6%4.9%3.8%-4.9%-4.7%3.7%
Dividend Yield1.3%1.4%1.8%2.2%0.0%1.8%1.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-10.4%-0.1%0.9%-4.0%-1.5%-6.3%-2.8%
D/E0.00.50.10.50.31.50.4
Net D/E-0.00.50.10.40.21.50.3

Returns

CVLGKNXSNDRWERNHTLDULHMedian
NameCovenant.Knight-S.Schneide.Werner E.Heartlan.Universa. 
1M Rtn21.6%26.3%29.3%29.0%24.3%20.6%25.3%
3M Rtn0.5%26.7%15.3%11.1%9.8%-31.1%10.4%
6M Rtn-0.5%23.9%12.7%10.2%6.2%-33.0%8.2%
12M Rtn-19.4%-0.9%-9.7%-18.6%-20.7%-65.3%-19.0%
3Y Rtn26.2%0.6%15.0%-22.7%-41.8%-50.9%-11.0%
1M Excs Rtn20.9%25.5%28.6%28.3%23.5%19.9%24.5%
3M Excs Rtn-2.3%26.5%15.3%10.2%7.1%-35.3%8.7%
6M Excs Rtn-12.9%11.5%0.3%-2.1%-6.2%-45.4%-4.1%
12M Excs Rtn-32.1%-14.6%-23.5%-30.9%-32.1%-76.8%-31.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-45.5%-71.5%-57.5%-95.5%-111.4%-120.8%-83.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Expedited424458344320357
Dedicated320363325289342
Managed Freight259321321178139
Warehousing10180635248
Elimination of intersegment revenues -6-7  
Total1,1041,2171,046839885


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Expedited456133-7-1
Dedicated2621-1-161
Managed Freight10373243
Warehousing62346
Other-29    
Total5912167-149


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity490,401
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520257.4%
Average Daily Volume106,012
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.63
Basic Shares Quantity25,030,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/20250.4%-0.8%-4.3%
7/23/20253.7%0.3%-2.3%
4/23/202510.4%5.9%19.5%
1/23/2025-2.9%-2.2%-15.3%
10/23/2024-0.3%-0.4%10.5%
7/24/20248.3%10.2%2.4%
4/24/20241.2%1.9%5.4%
1/23/20241.9%2.7%5.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161519
# Negative895
Median Positive9.2%10.2%10.5%
Median Negative-5.7%-2.3%-9.1%
Max Positive18.1%44.9%58.1%
Max Negative-21.9%-16.6%-16.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021