AerSale (ASLE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.52 | Market Cap: $307.6 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Airport Services
AerSale (ASLE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $6.52Market Cap: $307.6 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Airport Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -131% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 121x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 66x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Aircraft Aftermarket, and Aviation Asset Management. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14% | |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.2% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Aircraft Aftermarket, and Aviation Asset Management. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -131% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 121x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 66x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.2% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ASLE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the approximate -24.6% stock movement for AerSale (ASLE) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. AerSale missed Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimates. The company reported an EPS of $0.04 for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, falling short of analyst consensus estimates which ranged from $0.10 to $0.18 per share. This represented a significant negative surprise.
2. Q3 2025 revenue significantly missed analyst forecasts. AerSale's reported revenue for Q3 2025 was $71.19 million, which was below analyst estimates that generally ranged from $93.86 million to $102.4 million. This reflected a 13.9% year-over-year decline in sales and a substantial shortfall against market expectations.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ASLE Return | 32% | 32% | -9% | -22% | -50% | 3% | -36% |
| Peers Return | 8% | -15% | -35% | -13% | -43% | -17% | -76% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ASLE Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 25% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 27% | 50% | 56% | 31% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ASLE Max Drawdown | -8% | -28% | -28% | -34% | -64% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -33% | -41% | -48% | -61% | -49% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JOBY, UP, ASLE, SOAR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ASLE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -19.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 270 days | 148 days |
Compare to JOBY, UP, ASLE, SOAR
In The Past
AerSale's stock fell -55.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2021. A -55.0% loss requires a 122.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| With AerSale Stock Sliding, Have You Assessed The Risk? | Return |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ASLE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for AerSale
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 3.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 216 |
| Op Inc LTM | -135 |
| FCF LTM | -152 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -363 |
| CFO LTM | -60 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -278 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 144.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -13.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6,813.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 17.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -16.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -15.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 3.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -12.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -21.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -23.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -29.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | -1.9 |
| P/E | -2.6 |
| P/CFO | -6.1 |
| Total Yield | -17.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -15.5% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -16.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -23.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -15.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -32.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | -77.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -16.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -26.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -30.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -49.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -149.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3072023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |