Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -131%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 121x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 66x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Aircraft Aftermarket, and Aviation Asset Management.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14%
2   Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.2%
3   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6%
0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Aircraft Aftermarket, and Aviation Asset Management.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -104%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -131%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 121x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 66x
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -14%
5 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.2%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ASLE Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for the approximate -24.6% stock movement for AerSale (ASLE) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. AerSale missed Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimates. The company reported an EPS of $0.04 for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, falling short of analyst consensus estimates which ranged from $0.10 to $0.18 per share. This represented a significant negative surprise.

2. Q3 2025 revenue significantly missed analyst forecasts. AerSale's reported revenue for Q3 2025 was $71.19 million, which was below analyst estimates that generally ranged from $93.86 million to $102.4 million. This reflected a 13.9% year-over-year decline in sales and a substantial shortfall against market expectations.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ASLE Return32%32%-9%-22%-50%3%-36%
Peers Return8%-15%-35%-13%-43%-17%-76%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ASLE Win Rate58%50%58%42%25%60% 
Peers Win Rate65%27%50%56%31%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ASLE Max Drawdown-8%-28%-28%-34%-64%-10% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-33%-41%-48%-61%-49% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JOBY, UP, ASLE, SOAR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventASLES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-55.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven122.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-19.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven24.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven270 days148 days

Compare to JOBY, UP, ASLE, SOAR


In The Past

AerSale's stock fell -55.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/1/2021. A -55.0% loss requires a 122.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About AerSale (ASLE)

Better Bets than AerSale (ASLE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Title
0ARTICLES

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ASLE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for AerSale

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ASLEJOBYUPSOARMedian
NameAerSale Joby Avi.Wheels U.Volato  
Mkt Price6.5114.630.621.263.88
Mkt Cap0.312.40.40.00.4
Rev LTM3392375792216
Op Inc LTM14-663-2722-135
FCF LTM-18-533-287-9-152
FCF 3Y Avg-81-434-363--363
CFO LTM3-477-110-9-60
CFO 3Y Avg-65-387-278--278

Growth & Margins

ASLEJOBYUPSOARMedian
NameAerSale Joby Avi.Wheels U.Volato  
Rev Chg LTM-1.6%1,934.5%-9.1%291.2%144.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-7.0%--19.0%--13.0%
Rev Chg Q-13.9%80,521.4%-4.3%13,632.0%6,813.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.3%23,006.1%-1.1%36.6%17.8%
Op Mgn LTM4.0%-2,926.6%-35.9%2.5%-16.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg1.6%--31.7%--15.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%647,806.1%-3.5%5.8%3.1%
CFO/Rev LTM0.9%-2,107.5%-14.5%-9.8%-12.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-19.3%--23.8%--21.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-5.2%-2,352.7%-37.9%-9.8%-23.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-24.1%--34.1%--29.1%

Valuation

ASLEJOBYUPSOARMedian
NameAerSale Joby Avi.Wheels U.Volato  
Mkt Cap0.312.40.40.00.4
P/S1.1602.01.70.01.4
P/EBIT24.9-20.6-4.91.1-1.9
P/E65.7-12.9-3.7-1.5-2.6
P/CFO120.6-28.6-11.8-0.4-6.1
Total Yield1.5%-7.7%-27.2%-68.1%-17.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-15.5%-8.0%-263.1%--15.5%
D/E0.40.00.40.50.4
Net D/E0.4-0.10.3-0.90.1

Returns

ASLEJOBYUPSOARMedian
NameAerSale Joby Avi.Wheels U.Volato  
1M Rtn-12.1%-10.4%-52.7%-21.7%-16.9%
3M Rtn-23.0%12.2%-73.4%-24.6%-23.8%
6M Rtn8.0%85.9%-57.2%-38.8%-15.4%
12M Rtn6.7%86.4%-70.9%-86.2%-32.1%
3Y Rtn-59.6%254.2%-95.3%-99.5%-77.5%
1M Excs Rtn-12.1%-10.3%-52.6%-21.7%-16.9%
3M Excs Rtn-29.6%6.3%-80.4%-22.5%-26.0%
6M Excs Rtn-6.8%71.2%-72.0%-53.6%-30.2%
12M Excs Rtn-10.2%49.9%-88.8%-94.2%-49.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-130.9%199.5%-167.9%-172.3%-149.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Asset Management Solutions372233370277254
Technical Operations (TechOps)16414111310988
Corporate18157432
Total554532487389344


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,155,375
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.4%
Average Daily Volume671,543
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.72
Basic Shares Quantity47,180,634
Short % of Basic Shares2.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024311202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023308202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022307202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021315202210-K 12/31/2021