Target Hospitality (TH)
Market Price (5/30/2026): $17.02 | Market Cap: $1.7 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Target Hospitality (TH)
Market Price (5/30/2026): $17.02Market Cap: $1.7 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, US LNG, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -69% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -15% Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.4x Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 123%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 138% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16% Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 115% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.8% Key risksTH key risks include [1] a high vulnerability to the loss of key contracts and [2] significant revenue concentration in the cyclical energy sector. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, US LNG, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -69% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -48 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -15% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 5.4x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 123%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 138% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.9% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 115% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.8% |
| Key risksTH key risks include [1] a high vulnerability to the loss of key contracts and [2] significant revenue concentration in the cyclical energy sector. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Target Hospitality (TH) stock has gained about 150% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant multi-year contract wins, particularly in the rapidly expanding AI and data center infrastructure sector. Target Hospitality announced over $1.4 billion in multi-year contracts in its Workforce Hospitality Solutions (WHS) segment since January 2026, representing more than 9,000 beds. Key awards include a $550 million multi-year lease and services agreement with a top-five hyperscaler for a data center campus in North Texas, announced on April 1, 2026, which is expected to accommodate approximately 4,000 individuals over an initial five-year term. Additionally, on May 11, 2026, the company secured a 48-month agreement expected to generate over $750 million in revenue for an AI Infrastructure Community supporting approximately 3,370 individuals. These contracts, part of over $2.0 billion in awards since February 2025 (with $1.8 billion in WHS), have diversified Target's portfolio and enhanced revenue visibility.
2. Substantially raised financial outlook and strong future growth guidance. Following these contract wins, Target Hospitality increased its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $370 million and $380 million, and adjusted EBITDA to between $75 million and $85 million, from previous estimates. The company also projects exiting 2027 with over $680 million in annualized revenue and over $240 million in annualized Adjusted EBITDA, reflecting material expected growth as new WHS contracts ramp up. This revised outlook was a significant driver of investor confidence, with the company's investor presentation in May 2026 highlighting an addressable market expansion from approximately $1 billion to $18 billion due to data center demand.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 152.0% change in TH stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 145.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.89 | 17.36 | 152.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 315 | 324 | 2.9% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.2 | 5.4 | 145.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 100 | 100 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 152.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TH | 152.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.6% | 11.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.0% | 7.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 125.7% change in TH stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 117.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.69 | 17.36 | 125.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 310 | 324 | 4.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.5 | 5.4 | 117.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 99 | 100 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 125.7% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TH | 125.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.5% | 18.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.2% | 16.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 155.3% change in TH stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 207.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 6.80 | 17.36 | 155.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 386 | 324 | -16.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 1.7 | 5.4 | 207.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 99 | 100 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 155.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TH | 155.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 38.0% | 15.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 23.5% | 13.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 37.7% change in TH stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/29/2026 was primarily driven by a 118.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5292026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.61 | 17.36 | 37.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 502 | 324 | -35.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 2.5 | 5.4 | 118.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 98 | 100 | -2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 37.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TH | 37.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 89.0% | 13.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 67.5% | 13.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TH Return | 125% | 325% | -36% | -1% | -17% | 115% | 990% |
| Peers Return | 29% | -13% | 47% | 29% | 1% | -9% | 96% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TH Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 25% | 67% | 58% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 56% | 44% | 65% | 58% | 55% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TH Max Drawdown | -37% | -34% | -50% | -38% | -53% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -34% | -17% | -18% | -32% | -35% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: H, WH, AHMA, BKNG, MAR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/29/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 401 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 841 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -17.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 36 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -75.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 302.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 718 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Target Hospitality's stock fell -48.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 93.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | TH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 401 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 841 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -75.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 302.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 718 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Target Hospitality's stock fell -48.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 93.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Target Hospitality (TH)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Target Hospitality (TH):
- They're like Marriott for workforce housing.
- Think of them as Extended Stay America for remote industrial communities.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Specialty Accommodation Rental: Target Hospitality provides temporary housing units, primarily for workforces in remote or specialized locations.
- Hospitality Support Services: The company offers a comprehensive suite of services including catering, maintenance, housekeeping, grounds-keeping, security, health and recreation, workforce community management, concierge, and laundry services to support its accommodation offerings.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```htmlTarget Hospitality (TH) primarily serves other organizations rather than individuals. Its major customers can be categorized as:
- U.S. government
- Government contractors
- Investment grade natural resource development companies
- Energy infrastructure companies
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Brad Archer, President & Chief Executive Officer
Brad Archer joined Target Hospitality in 2009 as Chief Operating Officer and was appointed President and CEO in 2014. He has 25 years of experience in the modular, lodging, and hospitality industries. Prior to joining Target Hospitality, Mr. Archer began his career with GE Capital Modular Space from 1992-1994 and then with Resun from 1994-2004, where he rose to Senior Vice President and was instrumental in expanding the company from two offices to 48. He also served as COO for two other modular leasing and manufacturing companies before joining Target Hospitality.
Jason Vlacich, Chief Financial Officer & Chief Accounting Officer
Jason Vlacich joined Target Hospitality in October 2018 and is responsible for the company's finance, accounting, IT business applications, tax, and investor relations functions. He brings over twenty years of experience in public accounting, hospitality accounting, and finance. Before his tenure at Target Hospitality, Mr. Vlacich served as Chief Accounting Officer at Highgate Hotels, L.P. from 2012, where he managed the corporate accounting department and global accounting services platform, and spearheaded the company's domestic and European accounting expansion and centralization.
Troy Schrenk, Executive Vice President Operations and Chief Commercial Officer
Troy Schrenk is responsible for Target Hospitality's business and commercial operations, construction, business development, commercial strategy, and government relations. He possesses more than 22 years of executive leadership experience, with extensive knowledge of the construction, housing, and hospitality industries.
Heidi Lewis, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary
Heidi Lewis oversees the legal and governance framework for Target Hospitality.
Brendan Dowhaniuk, Executive Vice President, Strategy & Corporate Development
Brendan Dowhaniuk joined Target Hospitality in December 2024. He has a diverse background in M&A and corporate finance across the consumer, industrials, and energy sectors. Previously, Mr. Dowhaniuk held senior M&A roles at Alimentation Couche-Tard (Circle K), Hoonigan, and Eastman Chemical Company, where he was involved in acquisition activity, portfolio strategy, and executing complex carve-out transactions. Earlier in his career, he worked in the oil & gas industry.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Key Business Risks for Target Hospitality (TH)
Target Hospitality Corp. faces several key risks inherent in its business model of providing specialty rental and hospitality services, primarily to government entities, natural resource development, and energy infrastructure companies.
-
Reliance on Government Contracts and Associated Political and Policy Changes
Target Hospitality has a significant dependency on contracts with the U.S. government and government contractors, a sector that can be subject to unpredictable changes in policy, funding levels, and contract renewals. For example, the company experienced a notable impact on its revenue from the termination of the Pecos Children's Center Contract, effective February 21, 2025. Sector-specific risks for Target Hospitality include dependencies on government contracts. The potential for a slowdown in the influx of migrants could also dampen revenue from the government segment. -
High Customer Concentration
A substantial portion of Target Hospitality's revenue is concentrated among a very small number of customers. As of the end of 2022, the two largest customers contributed 61% and 11% of the company's total revenue, respectively. The loss of one or both of these major customers could significantly impact Target Hospitality's financial performance and the market value of its stock. -
Exposure to Economic Cycles and Industry-Specific Downturns
As a company operating in the Industrials sector, Target Hospitality is exposed to risks related to broader economic cycles. While the background mentions serving natural resource development and energy infrastructure companies, the company also faces macroeconomic pressures that can influence customer demand and its pricing power. Downturns in the sectors it serves, driven by factors such as commodity price volatility or reduced capital expenditures, could lead to decreased demand for its accommodations and services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Target Hospitality Corp. operates in several addressable markets related to workforce accommodation and hospitality services in North America. The key addressable markets for Target Hospitality's main products and services are:
- Workforce Housing and Accommodation Services: The global Workforce Housing and Accommodation Services market was valued at approximately $6.89 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach around $7.97 billion by 2032. North America is a leading region in this market.
- Corporate Housing/Serviced Apartments: The U.S. serviced apartment segment, which closely aligns with corporate housing, was valued at $13.8 billion in 2024. This market is projected to expand significantly to $44.0 billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5%.
- Remote Workplace Services: The global Remote Workplace Services Market, which encompasses various technological solutions and support systems for remote work, is expected to reach a valuation of USD 100.03 billion by 2032, up from USD 19.79 billion in 2022. North America has been a leading adopter of remote workplace solutions. In 2024, North America held a dominant market position in the Global Digital Nomad Services Market, capturing over a 32.1% share, with a revenue of USD 10.95 billion.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Target Hospitality (TH) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:-
Expansion of Workforce Hospitality Solutions (WHS) in High-Growth Sectors
Target Hospitality anticipates significant growth in its Workforce Hospitality Solutions (WHS) segment, driven by increasing demand from sectors such as AI infrastructure, data center development, power generation, and critical minerals development. This segment is projected to become the largest operating segment by the end of 2026, contributing over 40% of consolidated revenue. The company has secured new multi-year contract awards, including a West Texas power community agreement for 1,400 beds with $129 million of committed minimum revenue, and has reactivated over 2,850 existing beds to support this expansion. -
New and Reactivated U.S. Government Contracts
The re-contracting of the Dilley assets (South Texas Family Residential Center) effective March 5, 2025, is a significant driver. This new contract is expected to generate over $246 million in revenue over its anticipated five-year term, with approximately $30 million in revenue projected for 2025 alone. While some non-recurring government segment revenue decreased, the re-secured Dilley contract provides a stable and long-term revenue stream. -
Strategic Diversification and New Service Offerings
Target Hospitality is actively pursuing opportunities to broaden its value chain participation and diversify its contract portfolio. An example of this strategy is the launch of "Target Hyper/Scale," a new brand focused on delivering highly customized, vertically integrated solutions for large-scale, remote data center projects. This initiative aims to capture the substantial market opportunity presented by these specialized infrastructure developments. -
Leveraging Existing Network to Meet Sustained Customer Demand
The company continues to benefit from sustained momentum in customer demand for its premium service offerings across its various segments. Target Hospitality's expansive network of accommodation units and its flexible operating model allow it to effectively align with and capitalize on this demand, providing value-added hospitality solutions to its diverse customer base.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- On November 3, 2022, Target Hospitality's Board of Directors authorized a stock repurchase program for up to $100 million of its outstanding common stock.
Capital Expenditures
- Target Hospitality reported approximately $72.7 million in capital expenditures for the year ended December 31, 2025, primarily directed towards growth in its Workforce Hospitality Solutions (WHS) segment, including the Workforce Hub Contract and the development and expansion of the Data Center Community.
- The company projects capital spending, excluding acquisitions, to be between $65 million and $75 million for 2026, focused on growth initiatives.
- Recent growth-focused capital outlays include $10 million to $15 million for a community expansion in Q4 2025, and an estimated $8 million to $10 million for a Power Community Contract starting in June 2026, leveraging existing infrastructure.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to TH.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04242026 | MGM | MGM Resorts International | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -1.5% | -1.5% | -1.5% |
| 04242026 | WEN | Wendy's | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -2.5% | -2.5% | -5.3% |
| 04102026 | WHR | Whirlpool | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -0.8% | -0.8% | -4.8% |
| 04022026 | SKY | Champion Homes | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | -1.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 123.84 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.1 |
| Rev LTM | 7,131 |
| Op Inc LTM | 518 |
| FCF LTM | 304 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 369 |
| CFO LTM | 350 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 562 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -0.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.1 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 13.9 |
| P/EBIT | 14.6 |
| P/E | 21.5 |
| P/CFO | 22.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 18.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 46.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -40.4% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other unallocated amounts | 329 | 171 | |||
| Government | 191 | 207 | 217 | 87 | 27 |
| Hospitality & Facilities Services (HFS) - South | 177 | 184 | 177 | 207 | 278 |
| Other assets | 29 | ||||
| All Other | 27 | 31 | 35 | 2 | 3 |
| Hospitality & Facilities Services - Midwest | 44 | 52 | |||
| TCPL (TC Energy Pipelines) Keystone | 3 | 4 | |||
| Total | 753 | 423 | 428 | 343 | 534 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $17.36 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/07/2014 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -7.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $14.62 | $9.56 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 18.7% | 81.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 96.2% | 61.3% |
| Downside Capture | -17.76 | 29.21 |
| Upside Capture | 286.57 | 123.79 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 12.0% | 15.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.55 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 1.03 | 0.75 | 0.56 |
| Up Beta | -0.79 | -0.49 | -0.10 | 0.91 | 0.69 | 0.50 |
| Down Beta | -2.38 | 0.84 | 1.27 | 0.93 | 1.01 | 0.71 |
| Up Capture | 376% | 357% | 293% | 227% | 109% | 23% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 15 | 25 | 39 | 71 | 127 | 348 |
| Down Capture | 28% | -57% | -93% | 34% | 32% | 82% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 18 | 24 | 52 | 118 | 385 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TH | 127.0% | 61.1% | 1.56 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.4% | 18.0% | 0.55 | 14.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.3% | 11.8% | 1.94 | 16.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 37.5% | 26.7% | 1.17 | 0.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 39.6% | 18.8% | 1.63 | 0.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.5% | 13.1% | 0.64 | 7.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.8% | 41.6% | -0.81 | 6.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TH | 41.5% | 68.4% | 0.81 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 8.4% | 23.7% | 0.31 | 12.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.3% | 17.0% | 0.66 | 12.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | 1.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.2% | 19.4% | 0.41 | 10.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.08 | 9.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 14.6% | 54.6% | 0.46 | 7.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TH | 5.4% | 78.7% | 0.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.3% | 22.0% | 0.55 | 22.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.9% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 26.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.3% | 16.0% | 0.69 | 2.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 17.9% | 0.33 | 16.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 25.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.0% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 11.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 5/28/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/11/2026 | 17.9% | 21.7% | |
| 3/11/2026 | 13.8% | 17.7% | 86.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | -15.5% | -17.6% | 9.3% |
| 8/7/2025 | 12.1% | 10.4% | 20.3% |
| 5/19/2025 | 5.1% | 3.8% | -1.7% |
| 3/26/2025 | 6.4% | 10.8% | 4.1% |
| 11/12/2024 | 6.8% | -9.2% | -5.6% |
| 8/7/2024 | 12.1% | 13.4% | 11.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 20 | 18 | 14 |
| # Negative | 5 | 7 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 8.3% | 13.6% | 22.2% |
| Median Negative | -10.2% | -12.2% | -9.5% |
| Max Positive | 18.6% | 37.4% | 86.7% |
| Max Negative | -15.5% | -17.6% | -31.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/11/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/11/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/19/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/10/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 5/28/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenue | 370.00 Mil | 375.00 Mil | 380.00 Mil | 15.4% | Raised | Guidance: 325.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 75.00 Mil | 80.00 Mil | 85.00 Mil | 23.1% | Raised | Guidance: 65.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Total Capital Expenditures | 460.00 Mil | 470.00 Mil | 480.00 Mil | 571.4% | Raised | Guidance: 70.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Annualized Revenue | 680.00 Mil | Higher New | |||||
| 2027 Annualized Adjusted EBITDA | 240.00 Mil | Higher New | |||||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/11/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Total Revenue | 320.00 Mil | 325.00 Mil | 330.00 Mil | 3.2% | Raised | Guidance: 315.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 60.00 Mil | 65.00 Mil | 70.00 Mil | 18.2% | Raised | Guidance: 55.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Total Capital Expenditures | 65.00 Mil | 70.00 Mil | 75.00 Mil | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 5/26/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lewis, Heidi Diane | EVP, General Counsel & Sec | Direct | Sell | 1222026 | 7.34 | 9,000 | 66,060 | 966,986 | Form |
| 2 | Lewis, Heidi Diane | EVP, General Counsel & Sec | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 8.50 | 13,456 | 114,376 | 1,196,307 | Form |
| 3 | Robertson, Stephen | Direct | Buy | 12042025 | 7.94 | 125,000 | 992,500 | 3,533,300 | Form | |
| 4 | Lewis, Heidi Diane | EVP, General Counsel & Sec | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 6.70 | 9,000 | 60,300 | 1,033,127 | Form |
| 5 | Robertson, Stephen | Direct | Buy | 11192025 | 6.85 | 145,000 | 993,250 | 2,192,000 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.