Target Hospitality (TH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.72 | Market Cap: $770.3 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Diversified Support Services
Target Hospitality (TH)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $7.72Market Cap: $770.3 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Diversified Support Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 221x |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.1% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.7% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, US LNG, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.1% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include US Energy Independence, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include US Oilfield Technologies, US LNG, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -117% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 221x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.7% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -5.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TH Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining the -14.4% movement of Target Hospitality (TH) stock from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Significant Decline in Q3 2025 Profitability. Target Hospitality reported a net loss of ($0.8) million for the third quarter of 2025, a substantial decrease compared to a net income of $20.1 million in the same period of 2024. Additionally, Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 fell to $21.5 million from $49.7 million in the third quarter of the previous year. This notable decline in profitability, despite an increase in revenue, likely weighed on investor sentiment over the period.
2. Impact of PCC Contract Termination. The decrease in net income and Adjusted EBITDA during Q3 2025 was partially attributed to the termination of the PCC Contract. Although the company reached an agreement on August 1, 2025, for an $11.8 million reimbursement for certain close-out costs, the cessation of this contract removed a previous revenue stream, potentially creating uncertainty about future earnings potential.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TH Return | -68% | 125% | 325% | -36% | -1% | -20% | 55% |
| Peers Return | 19% | 25% | 4% | 33% | 23% | -11% | 127% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TH Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 50% | 25% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 62% | 45% | 67% | 55% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TH Max Drawdown | -83% | -2% | -19% | -40% | -26% | -48% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -11% | -17% | -7% | -3% | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TRI, CBZ, CTAS, CPRT, LDOS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TH | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -49.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 99.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -85.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 580.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 502 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -63.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 170.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 967 days | 120 days |
Compare to TRI, CBZ, CTAS, CPRT, LDOS
In The Past
Target Hospitality's stock fell -49.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/13/2023. A -49.8% loss requires a 99.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TH. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Target Hospitality
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 92.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 30.8 |
| Rev LTM | 6,011 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,869 |
| FCF LTM | 1,284 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,081 |
| CFO LTM | 1,653 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,429 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 16.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 30.8 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| P/EBIT | 28.7 |
| P/E | 31.1 |
| P/CFO | 27.4 |
| Total Yield | 3.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -13.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -20.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -16.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 17.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -35.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -30.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -52.7% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government | 207 | 217 | 87 | 27 | 35 |
| Hospitality & Facilities Services (HFS) - South | 184 | 177 | 207 | 278 | 306 |
| All Other | 31 | 35 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Hospitality & Facilities Services - Midwest | 44 | 52 | 59 | ||
| TCPL (TC Energy Pipelines) Keystone | 3 | 4 | 3 | ||
| Other unallocated amounts | 171 | 194 | |||
| Restricted cash | 0 | ||||
| Total | 423 | 428 | 343 | 534 | 601 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5192025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3132024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11092022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |