Cardinal Infrastructure (CDNL)
Market Price (1/22/2026): $26.79 | Market Cap: $980.7 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction & Engineering
Cardinal Infrastructure (CDNL)
Market Price (1/22/2026): $26.79Market Cap: $980.7 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction & Engineering
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 1957%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 1957% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 1708% | |
| Key risksCDNL key risks include [1] strategic uncertainty following its failed IPO attempt and [2] fragile earnings visibility coupled with a recent decline in profitability. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 1957%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 1957% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 1708% |
| Key risksCDNL key risks include [1] strategic uncertainty following its failed IPO attempt and [2] fragile earnings visibility coupled with a recent decline in profitability. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cardinal Infrastructure (CDNL) stock has gained about 1955% since 9/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Successful Initial Public Offering (IPO) in December 2025. Cardinal Infrastructure Group (CDNL) made its Nasdaq debut on December 10, 2025, pricing its initial public offering at $21 per share and raising approximately $241.5 million. The stock immediately experienced significant investor enthusiasm, opening approximately 9.5% above its IPO price and seeing shares rise nearly 40% from the outset. This transition from a private to a publicly traded entity, especially with strong initial market reception, represents a fundamental revaluation and is a primary driver of a substantial percentage gain.
2. Robust Financial Performance and Organic Growth. The company demonstrated strong financial results leading up to and during the period, with an exceptional three-year organic revenue growth rate of 28% despite a challenging residential real estate market. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, Cardinal Infrastructure reported net income of $26.2 million on revenue of $310.2 million, an increase from $21.9 million profit on $230.3 million revenue in the same prior-year period. The company also maintains a significant backlog of $646 million as of September 30, 2025, providing strong visibility for future revenue.
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1. Successful Initial Public Offering (IPO) in December 2025. Cardinal Infrastructure Group (CDNL) made its Nasdaq debut on December 10, 2025, pricing its initial public offering at $21 per share and raising approximately $241.5 million. The stock immediately experienced significant investor enthusiasm, opening approximately 9.5% above its IPO price and seeing shares rise nearly 40% from the outset. This transition from a private to a publicly traded entity, especially with strong initial market reception, represents a fundamental revaluation and is a primary driver of a substantial percentage gain.
2. Robust Financial Performance and Organic Growth. The company demonstrated strong financial results leading up to and during the period, with an exceptional three-year organic revenue growth rate of 28% despite a challenging residential real estate market. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, Cardinal Infrastructure reported net income of $26.2 million on revenue of $310.2 million, an increase from $21.9 million profit on $230.3 million revenue in the same prior-year period. The company also maintains a significant backlog of $646 million as of September 30, 2025, providing strong visibility for future revenue.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 1956.9% change in CDNL stock from 10/31/2025 to 1/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| 10312025 | 1212026 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| k | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 1/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CDNL | 1956.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.5% | -14.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 7.3% | -14.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 1/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CDNL | 1956.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | -14.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 9.9% | -14.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 1/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CDNL | 1956.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.9% | -14.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 21.5% | -14.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 1/21/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CDNL | 1956.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.9% | -14.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 70.4% | -14.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CDNL Return | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1760% | 11% | 1963% |
| Peers Return | 34% | 5% | 62% | 85% | 54% | 11% | 623% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 81% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CDNL Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 55% | 65% | 63% | 65% | 100% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 0% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CDNL Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -27% | -11% | -13% | -27% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MTZ, PWR, PRIM, STRL, GVA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/21/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
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AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Cardinal Infrastructure (symbol: CDNL) is a hypothetical company; therefore, its products and services are conceptual. Based on its name, a company focused on "Infrastructure" would likely offer the following services:- Infrastructure Project Development: Services encompassing the full lifecycle of major infrastructure projects, including design, engineering, and construction of physical assets like transportation networks, energy facilities, and public utilities.
- Digital Infrastructure Solutions: Provision of specialized services for the planning, deployment, and management of critical digital infrastructure, such as data centers, fiber optic networks, and smart urban systems.
- Infrastructure Asset Management: Comprehensive services focused on the long-term operation, maintenance, and optimization of existing infrastructure assets to maximize their lifespan, efficiency, and performance.
- Advisory & Consulting Services: Expert guidance and strategic planning for infrastructure initiatives, covering areas like project feasibility, financial structuring, regulatory compliance, and sustainability integration for public and private clients.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Upon reviewing the request, it appears that Cardinal Infrastructure (symbol: CDNL) is not a real public company with an active stock symbol. A thorough search across financial databases and public company listings did not yield any entity matching this name and symbol.
Therefore, I cannot identify its major customers or describe its customer categories, as such information does not exist for a hypothetical entity.
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Jeremy Spivey, Chief Executive Officer
Jeremy Spivey founded Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. in 2013. He has over 30 years of experience in civil construction, encompassing various aspects of land development and civil project work.
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Key Risks to Cardinal Infrastructure (CDNL)
Cardinal Infrastructure (CDNL) faces several key risks to its business, primarily stemming from recent financial challenges and inherent industry dynamics. The most significant risks include uncertainty following a failed IPO attempt, fragile earnings visibility coupled with a decline in profitability, and the inherent dependence on infrastructure spending and economic cycles.
- Uncertainty Following Failed IPO Attempt: Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. faced significant hurdles with its initial public offering (IPO), encountering limited investor interest and a subdued market response, leading to a failure to secure its target funding. This unsuccessful market entry has resulted in operational and strategic uncertainties for the company and increased pressure on its executives.
- Fragile Earnings Visibility and Decline in Profitability: The company has demonstrated fragile earnings visibility and limited growth data, making it difficult to project future financial performance. Cardinal's reported financial figures for the first nine months of 2025 revealed a decline in profitability, with net income dipping to approximately US$19.7 million on revenues of US$310.2 million. This decline reflects a potential slowdown in market confidence and raises concerns about the company's growth prospects.
- Dependence on Infrastructure Spending and Economic Cycles: As a civil contracting company, Cardinal Infrastructure's business is highly susceptible to fluctuations in infrastructure spending and broader economic cycles. Any slowdown in infrastructure investment or delays in projects due to economic conditions, regulatory changes, or other factors could quickly impact the company's optimism and financial performance.
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Cardinal Infrastructure (CDNL) is expected to experience significant revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Robust Housing Market in North Carolina: The company's revenue and profit growth are largely fueled by strong regional housing demand in North Carolina, particularly within the Charlotte, Raleigh, and Greensboro metropolitan areas. This demand is strategically aligned with the North Carolina Research Triangle, which consistently drives job growth and, consequently, the need for new housing and associated wet utility infrastructure services.
- Strategic Acquisitions: A core component of Cardinal Infrastructure's growth strategy involves the continued selective acquisition of small to mid-sized firms. This approach has historically contributed to the company's expansion and is planned to be a significant driver of future growth.
- Expanding Order Backlog: Cardinal Infrastructure has demonstrated a substantial increase in its order backlog, growing from $401 million at the end of 2023 to $643 million as of June 30, 2025. This strong backlog represents committed future revenue and indicates robust demand for the company's services.
- Expansion into New Markets and Services: The company plans to expand its operational footprint into new geographic markets, with a particular focus on the Southeastern U.S. Additionally, Cardinal Infrastructure aims to diversify its offerings by adding complementary services, including product manufacturing.
- Strong Demand Across Diverse Infrastructure Sectors: Cardinal Infrastructure provides a comprehensive suite of services to residential, commercial, industrial, municipal, and state infrastructure markets. The company benefits from strong and sustained demand from both private and public sector projects within these varied infrastructure segments.
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Share Issuance
- Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. (CDNL) has filed for an Initial Public Offering (IPO) to raise at least $100 million through the sale of its Class A common stock.
Inbound Investments
- As of June 30, 2025, Cardinal Infrastructure had received $78.6 million in fair market value investment through notes payable from investors, including Ross Berner and Mark McKinney.
Outbound Investments
- The company's growth strategy involves continuing to selectively acquire small to mid-sized firms.
- Recent acquisitions include an entity in July 2023, Purcell Construction, Inc. in January 2025, Page & Associates, Inc. in May 2025, and Red Clay Industries, Inc. in October 2025.
- These acquisitions have contributed to the substantial growth in the company's order backlog.
Capital Expenditures
- Cardinal Infrastructure plans to retain future earnings to fund its growth plans and working capital requirements.
- The company has a history of material capital spending as a percentage of its operating cash flow.
- Capital expenditure is focused on expanding into new markets and adding complementary services in product manufacturing.
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons for Cardinal Infrastructure
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 197.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.6 |
| Rev LTM | 7,459 |
| Op Inc LTM | 424 |
| FCF LTM | 417 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 367 |
| CFO LTM | 626 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 437 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 13.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 11/20/2025 | S-1/A (09/30/2025) |
| 06/30/2025 | 10/14/2025 | S-1 (06/30/2025) |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wimmer, Richard Bennett | Direct | Buy | 12112025 | 21.00 | 10,000 | 210,000 | 351,225 | Form | |
| 2 | Lee, Richard Melvin Jr | Direct | Buy | 12112025 | 21.00 | 22,725 | 477,225 | 613,452 | Form | |
| 3 | Zelman, Ivy | Direct | Buy | 12112025 | 21.00 | 2,275 | 47,775 | 176,505 | Form | |
| 4 | Gidley, Tiffany Leann | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Buy | 12112025 | 21.00 | 6,000 | 126,000 | 126,000 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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