Cardinal Infrastructure (CDNL)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $36.2 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction & Engineering
Cardinal Infrastructure (CDNL)
Market Price (3/30/2026): $36.2Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction & Engineering
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.1%, Dist 3Y High is -1.1% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 39x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 76x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 2692%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 2692% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.8% | ||
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 1708% | ||
| Key risksCDNL key risks include [1] strategic uncertainty following its failed IPO attempt and [2] fragile earnings visibility coupled with a recent decline in profitability. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.1%, Dist 3Y High is -1.1% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 39x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 76x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 2692%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 2692% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.8% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 1708% |
| Key risksCDNL key risks include [1] strategic uncertainty following its failed IPO attempt and [2] fragile earnings visibility coupled with a recent decline in profitability. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Cardinal Infrastructure (CDNL) stock has gained about 2690% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Successful Initial Public Offering (IPO) and Immediate Market Enthusiasm.
Cardinal Infrastructure (CDNL) commenced trading on December 10, 2025, with an initial public offering price of $21.00 per share. The stock experienced an immediate surge, rising approximately 40% shortly after its debut, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in its integrated infrastructure growth story. The IPO also raised about $241.5 million in gross proceeds.
2. Exceptional Full-Year 2025 Financial Performance and Record Backlog.
The company reported robust full-year 2025 results, with revenues of $456.0 million, a 45% increase year-over-year, which surpassed analyst estimates of $448.7 million. Net income also grew by 10% to $31.1 million. Furthermore, Cardinal Infrastructure achieved a record backlog of $682 million as of December 31, 2025, representing a 33% increase from the prior year and providing substantial revenue visibility for 2026.
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1. Successful Initial Public Offering (IPO) and Immediate Market Enthusiasm.
Cardinal Infrastructure (CDNL) commenced trading on December 10, 2025, with an initial public offering price of $21.00 per share. The stock experienced an immediate surge, rising approximately 40% shortly after its debut, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in its integrated infrastructure growth story. The IPO also raised about $241.5 million in gross proceeds.
2. Exceptional Full-Year 2025 Financial Performance and Record Backlog.
The company reported robust full-year 2025 results, with revenues of $456.0 million, a 45% increase year-over-year, which surpassed analyst estimates of $448.7 million. Net income also grew by 10% to $31.1 million. Furthermore, Cardinal Infrastructure achieved a record backlog of $682 million as of December 31, 2025, representing a 33% increase from the prior year and providing substantial revenue visibility for 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CDNL | 2692.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.3% | 10.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.9% | 11.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CDNL | 2692.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.6% | 10.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.5% | 11.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CDNL | 2692.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.8% | 10.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 18.4% | 11.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/29/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| CDNL | 2692.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 69.4% | 10.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 65.1% | 11.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CDNL Return | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1760% | 49% | 2677% |
| Peers Return | 34% | 5% | 62% | 85% | 54% | 25% | 708% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -5% | 72% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CDNL Win Rate | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 100% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 55% | 65% | 63% | 65% | 73% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CDNL Max Drawdown | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -27% | -11% | -13% | -27% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -5% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MTZ, PWR, PRIM, STRL, GVA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
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About Cardinal Infrastructure (CDNL)
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- Government Affairs and Advocacy: Assisting clients with legislative and regulatory processes related to transportation infrastructure projects.
- Strategic Consulting: Providing expert advice and strategic guidance on infrastructure policy, funding, and project development.
- Project Development Support: Offering support and expertise in the planning, financing, and implementation of complex infrastructure projects.
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Jeremy Spivey Chief Executive Officer & Chairman
Mr. Spivey founded Cardinal Civil Contracting in 2013 and has served as a partner and the Chief Executive Officer of Cardinal since that time. He possesses over 30 years of civil construction experience, specializing in all aspects of land development and complex civil projects. Mr. Spivey began his career as part of a utility crew and progressed through various core aspects of the business. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Construction Management with a Minor in Business Administration from East Carolina University.
Mike Rowe Partner, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Rowe has been a partner and the Chief Financial Officer of Cardinal Civil Contracting since July 2019. Prior to this, he was a partner and fractional Chief Financial Officer at Rankin McKenzie LLC, a firm providing part-time and interim CFO services to growth companies, from December 2017 to July 2019. From January 2014 to December 2017, he held the positions of Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer, and Chief Financial Officer of ING Source, Inc. Earlier, he served as Chief Financial Officer of Jones & Frank from April 2010 to June 2013, and as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Carolina Handling from March 2006 to April 2010. Mr. Rowe holds a bachelor's degree in accounting from North Carolina State University and is a CPA, CMA, CFA, and ABV certificate holder.
Erik West Chief Operating Officer of Cardinal NC
Mr. West serves as the Chief Operating Officer of Cardinal NC.
Tiffany Gidley General Counsel & Secretary
Ms. Gidley has been the General Counsel of Cardinal Civil Contracting since May 2024. Before joining Cardinal, she was Corporate Counsel at David Allen Company, Inc. from July 2015 to May 2024. She earned a Juris Doctor degree from Campbell University's Norman Adrian Wiggins School of Law and a bachelor's degree in applied psychology from North Carolina State University.
Jason Banks Director of Information Technology
Mr. Banks was appointed Director of Information Technology on February 26, 2026. He brings over 20 years of experience in enterprise systems, IT operations, and modernization initiatives. His previous roles include North America IT Director for Descours & Cabaud and an IT leadership position at Parker Hannifin.
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Here are the key risks to Cardinal Infrastructure's business:
- Sensitivity to Macroeconomic Conditions and Interest Rate Changes: As a civil contracting company heavily involved in infrastructure services for residential, commercial, industrial, municipal, and state markets, Cardinal Infrastructure's performance is significantly tied to the broader economic environment. Changes in interest rates can impact housing production and overall construction demand, directly affecting the volume and profitability of their projects.
- Geographic Concentration: While the company has recently expanded its footprint into Georgia and South Carolina through acquisitions, a substantial portion of its operations and revenue has historically been concentrated in North Carolina and the broader Southeastern United States. This regional focus exposes Cardinal Infrastructure to disproportionate risks from adverse economic downturns, changes in state-level infrastructure spending, or significant natural disasters within this specific geographic area.
- Integration Risks from Acquisitions and High Debt Levels: Cardinal Infrastructure is pursuing growth through acquisitions, such as the recent acquisition of A.L. Grading Contractors. Acquisitions inherently carry integration risks, including potential delays, higher costs than expected, and challenges in retaining key employees. Furthermore, analysts have highlighted a high level of debt, which could limit the company's financial flexibility and ability to maneuver if market conditions change or acquired projects underperform.
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```htmlExpected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Cardinal Infrastructure (CDNL)
Over the next 2-3 years, Cardinal Infrastructure (CDNL) is expected to drive revenue growth through several key initiatives and market dynamics:
- Strategic Acquisitions and Market Expansion: The recent acquisition of A.L. Grading Contractors (ALGC) is a significant driver, expanding Cardinal Infrastructure's operational footprint into Georgia and South Carolina. This move signifies the company's first expansion outside its traditional Carolinas markets in the Southeast and is expected to be immediately accretive, strengthening its financial profile and driving growth through alignment with blue-chip customers.
- Organic Growth in High-Growth Southeastern Markets: Cardinal Infrastructure is well-positioned to continue its organic growth strategy within North Carolina, benefiting from strong secular population and job growth trends in key areas like Raleigh, Charlotte, and Greensboro. This regional economic expansion drives consistent demand for infrastructure projects, which the company aims to capture with its vertically integrated service model.
- Expansion into New Mission-Critical Project Types: Beyond its current focus, Cardinal Infrastructure sees potential for future growth by securing new mission-critical projects. These could include large-scale developments such as data centers or e-commerce fulfillment sites, diversifying its project portfolio and tapping into emerging infrastructure needs.
- Strong and Growing Project Backlog: The company reported a record backlog of approximately $678.3 million to $685.7 million for 2025, representing a significant increase of about 33% compared to 2024. This robust backlog reflects strong and durable demand across Cardinal's markets, providing a solid foundation for future revenue generation.
- Enhanced Service Offerings and Vertical Integration: The acquisition of ALGC is anticipated to enhance Cardinal Infrastructure's self-performed service capabilities through vertical integration. This allows for the provision of more comprehensive infrastructure solutions, potentially leading to faster project execution and improved margins, as the company can reduce reliance on external outsourcing.
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Share Issuance
- Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. completed an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on December 10, 2025, by offering 11,500,000 shares of Class A Common Stock at an initial price of $21.00 per share.
- This IPO generated approximately $277.7 million in gross proceeds, providing significant capital for future growth initiatives.
- The number of outstanding shares was 13,218,750 at the end of 2024, and approximately 36.61 million as of March 2, 2026.
Inbound Investments
- As of June 30, 2025, Cardinal Infrastructure had received $78.6 million in fair market value investment through notes payable from investors.
Outbound Investments
- Cardinal Infrastructure's growth strategy includes selectively acquiring small to mid-sized firms.
- The company made several acquisitions, including Purcell Construction, Inc. in January 2025, Page & Associates, Inc. in May 2025, and Red Clay Industries, Inc. in October 2025.
- Cardinal Infrastructure acquired A.L. Grading Contractors for $245.5 million on February 18, 2026, expanding its operational footprint into Georgia and South Carolina.
Capital Expenditures
- Annual capital expenditures were $12.268 million in 2023 and $20.755 million in 2024.
- Trailing twelve months (TTM) capital expenditures were $33.737 million as of March 11, 2026.
- Maintenance capital expenditures, focused on preserving operating capacity, safety, and regulatory compliance, amounted to $2.5 million in 2023 and $4.0 million in 2024.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to CDNL.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | LZ | LegalZoom.com | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -5.0% |
| 02132026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -3.0% |
| 02132026 | TREX | Trex | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -5.9% |
| 02132026 | PCTY | Paylocity | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.6% | -0.6% | -4.8% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 229.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.3 |
| Rev LTM | 6,000 |
| Op Inc LTM | 414 |
| FCF LTM | 336 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 398 |
| CFO LTM | 470 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 472 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 17.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.3 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/EBIT | 32.9 |
| P/E | 53.1 |
| P/CFO | 28.8 |
| Total Yield | 1.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 29.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 29.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 162.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 368.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 38.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 34.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 135.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 322.9% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/19/2026 | 6.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | 6.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | 6.4% | 2.5% | 2.4% |
| Max Negative | |||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wimmer, Richard Bennett | Direct | Buy | 12112025 | 21.00 | 10,000 | 210,000 | 351,225 | Form | |
| 2 | Lee, Richard Melvin Jr | Direct | Buy | 12112025 | 21.00 | 22,725 | 477,225 | 613,452 | Form | |
| 3 | Zelman, Ivy | Direct | Buy | 12112025 | 21.00 | 2,275 | 47,775 | 176,505 | Form | |
| 4 | Gidley, Tiffany Leann | General Counsel and Secretary | Direct | Buy | 12112025 | 21.00 | 6,000 | 126,000 | 126,000 | Form |
| 5 | Zelman, Ivy | Direct | Buy | 3272026 | 36.33 | 6,921 | 251,440 | 556,794 | Form |
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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