FedEx Freight (FDXF)
Market Price (7/28/2026): $150.3 | Market Cap: $22.4 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
FedEx Freight (FDXF)
Market Price (7/28/2026): $150.3Market Cap: $22.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -34%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -64% | Key risksFDXF key risks include [1] sensitivity to economic cycles and fluctuating freight demand, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -34%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -64% |
| Key risksFDXF key risks include [1] sensitivity to economic cycles and fluctuating freight demand, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 7/23/2026
FedEx Freight (FDXF) stock has remained largely at the same level since it went public on 5/27/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Spin-off from FedEx and establishment as a pure-play LTL carrier. The completion of the spin-off from FedEx Corporation (FDX) on June 1, 2026, established FedEx Freight (FDXF) as an independent, publicly traded company. This separation positioned FDXF as the largest pure-play Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) carrier in North America, enabling a sharpened strategic focus on its core freight business without internal competition for capital or executive attention from other FedEx segments.
2. Inclusion in major equity indices. FedEx Freight was announced to join prominent global equity indices, including the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Transportation Average, with inclusion effective around June 1 or 2, 2026. This immediate entry into major indices typically triggers systematic buying from institutional funds that track these benchmarks, thereby generating increased demand and liquidity for the stock during its initial trading period.
Show more
FedEx Freight (FDXF) stock has remained largely at the same level since it went public on 5/27/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Spin-off from FedEx and establishment as a pure-play LTL carrier. The completion of the spin-off from FedEx Corporation (FDX) on June 1, 2026, established FedEx Freight (FDXF) as an independent, publicly traded company. This separation positioned FDXF as the largest pure-play Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) carrier in North America, enabling a sharpened strategic focus on its core freight business without internal competition for capital or executive attention from other FedEx segments.
2. Inclusion in major equity indices. FedEx Freight was announced to join prominent global equity indices, including the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Transportation Average, with inclusion effective around June 1 or 2, 2026. This immediate entry into major indices typically triggers systematic buying from institutional funds that track these benchmarks, thereby generating increased demand and liquidity for the stock during its initial trading period.
Show more
Updated on 7/23/2026
FedEx Freight (FDXF) stock has remained largely at the same level since it went public on 5/27/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Spin-off from FedEx and establishment as a pure-play LTL carrier. The completion of the spin-off from FedEx Corporation (FDX) on June 1, 2026, established FedEx Freight (FDXF) as an independent, publicly traded company. This separation positioned FDXF as the largest pure-play Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) carrier in North America, enabling a sharpened strategic focus on its core freight business without internal competition for capital or executive attention from other FedEx segments.
2. Inclusion in major equity indices. FedEx Freight was announced to join prominent global equity indices, including the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Transportation Average, with inclusion effective around June 1 or 2, 2026. This immediate entry into major indices typically triggers systematic buying from institutional funds that track these benchmarks, thereby generating increased demand and liquidity for the stock during its initial trading period.
3. Management's clear medium-term financial targets and strategic vision. The company's management outlined specific medium-term financial targets, projecting revenue growth of 4% to 6% and adjusted operating income growth of 10% to 12%. Additionally, targets included achieving free cash flow above $1 billion and a free cash flow conversion rate exceeding 90%. This focused growth strategy, emphasizing margin expansion within the LTL sector, provided investors with a clear and compelling outlook for the company's future performance as an independent entity.
4. Positive analyst sentiment and price targets. The spin-off was generally met with positive analyst sentiment, with firms like JPMorgan upgrading the parent FedEx (FDX) in light of the separation. For FDXF, the consensus price target from Wall Street analysts, as of July 23, 2026, was $175, suggesting a potential upside of more than 17% from its trading levels. This optimistic outlook, despite some cautionary notes regarding execution and cyclicality, contributed to investor confidence in the newly independent company.
Show less
FedEx Freight (FDXF) stock has remained largely at the same level since it went public on 5/27/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Spin-off from FedEx and establishment as a pure-play LTL carrier. The completion of the spin-off from FedEx Corporation (FDX) on June 1, 2026, established FedEx Freight (FDXF) as an independent, publicly traded company. This separation positioned FDXF as the largest pure-play Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) carrier in North America, enabling a sharpened strategic focus on its core freight business without internal competition for capital or executive attention from other FedEx segments.
2. Inclusion in major equity indices. FedEx Freight was announced to join prominent global equity indices, including the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Transportation Average, with inclusion effective around June 1 or 2, 2026. This immediate entry into major indices typically triggers systematic buying from institutional funds that track these benchmarks, thereby generating increased demand and liquidity for the stock during its initial trading period.
3. Management's clear medium-term financial targets and strategic vision. The company's management outlined specific medium-term financial targets, projecting revenue growth of 4% to 6% and adjusted operating income growth of 10% to 12%. Additionally, targets included achieving free cash flow above $1 billion and a free cash flow conversion rate exceeding 90%. This focused growth strategy, emphasizing margin expansion within the LTL sector, provided investors with a clear and compelling outlook for the company's future performance as an independent entity.
4. Positive analyst sentiment and price targets. The spin-off was generally met with positive analyst sentiment, with firms like JPMorgan upgrading the parent FedEx (FDX) in light of the separation. For FDXF, the consensus price target from Wall Street analysts, as of July 23, 2026, was $175, suggesting a potential upside of more than 17% from its trading levels. This optimistic outlook, despite some cautionary notes regarding execution and cyclicality, contributed to investor confidence in the newly independent company.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDXF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | -2.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 13.3% | 13.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDXF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | -2.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 18.4% | 13.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDXF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 20.6% | -2.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 25.5% | 13.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDXF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 72.6% | -2.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 77.8% | 13.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FDXF Return | - | - | - | - | - | 5% | 5% |
| Peers Return | 97% | -28% | 85% | 4% | -15% | 58% | 266% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FDXF Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 40% | 68% | 50% | 47% | 71% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FDXF Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -42% | -24% | -29% | -44% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ODFL, XPO, SAIA, ARCB, TFII.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
FDXF has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 62 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
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FDXF has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About FedEx Freight (FDXF)
FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) specializes in providing less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation services. This core business involves consolidating multiple smaller shipments from various customers onto a single truck, making it an efficient solution for businesses that do not have enough goods to fill an entire semi-trailer.
The company's primary service allows businesses to transport palletized freight and other general commodities cost-effectively, catering to a wide range of industries that require reliable shipping for volumes between parcel and full truckload. FedEx Freight operates an extensive network, serving customers across the United States, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
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1. Think of it as the UPS for business freight, specializing in combining smaller cargo loads that don't fill an entire truck.
2. It's the bridge between companies like FedEx Express (for packages) and full truckload carriers, handling larger B2B shipments that don't need a dedicated truck.
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- Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) Freight Transportation: This service involves the movement of freight shipments that are too large for standard parcel services but do not require the entire capacity of a full truck trailer.
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Here are the key risks to the business of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (symbol: FDXF):
- Sensitivity to Economic Cycles and Fluctuations in Freight Demand: As a less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation provider, FedEx Freight's business is highly correlated with overall economic activity and industrial production. During economic downturns or periods of reduced consumer spending, freight volumes typically decrease, leading to lower demand for transportation services. Declining freight volumes often lead to underutilized trucks, directly impacting profitability. This can result in pricing pressures and a significant negative impact on the company's revenue and profitability. An "Economic Slowdown or Slow Recovery" is a top risk facing transportation and logistics organizations.
- Labor Shortages and Escalating Operating Costs: The freight transportation industry consistently faces challenges in recruiting, training, and retaining qualified drivers and other essential personnel. Increasing transportation costs are a pressing challenge in LTL shipping. Shortages of skilled labor, coupled with rising wage demands and increased benefit costs, can lead to higher operating expenses and reduced operational efficiency, potentially affecting service quality and profitability.
- Intense Competition and Pricing Pressures: The less-than-truckload market is highly competitive, characterized by a mix of national, regional, and specialized carriers. Reduced shipment volumes can increase competition among carriers, which can destabilize the market. This intense competition can lead to pricing pressures, making it difficult for the company to pass on cost increases or improve profit margins, especially as a company navigating an established market. "Increasing Competition" is identified as a top current risk for transportation and logistics organizations.
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The addressable markets for FedEx Freight's main service, less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation, are detailed below:
- United States: The Less-than-Truck-Load market size in the United States was estimated at USD 118.68 billion in 2026. This market is projected to grow to USD 144.97 billion by 2031, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.08%.
- Canada: The LTL market in Canada is approximately USD 7,643.49 million (or about USD 7.64 billion) in 2025. It is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.59%.
- Mexico: The LTL market in Mexico is valued at approximately USD 4,703.90 million (or about USD 4.70 billion) in 2025. This market is projected to expand at a CAGR of 5.21%.
- Puerto Rico: The LTL market in Puerto Rico contributes an estimated USD 331.01 million. This market is driven by import-export intermodal logistics and has a CAGR of 4.11%.
- U.S. Virgin Islands: null
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FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) anticipates future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic and market-related factors following its spin-off as an independent public company in June 2026.
Here are the key expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- Yield Improvement and Stronger Pricing Execution: A significant portion of FedEx Freight's projected revenue growth is expected to come from improved yield, supported by stronger pricing execution. The company reported an 11.5% increase in revenue per shipment and an 8.2% rise in revenue per hundredweight in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. This trend, coupled with sustained higher fuel prices contributing to surcharges and more focused sales efforts as a standalone entity, is expected to support ongoing yield-based revenue growth.
- Growing Market Demand for LTL Services and Industrial Recovery: FedEx Freight is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing market demand for Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) services. This demand is fueled by factors such as e-commerce expansion and evolving supply chain complexities. Furthermore, the company anticipates benefiting from an industrial recovery, as evidenced by improving manufacturing indicators. With approximately 30% spare capacity, FedEx Freight is equipped to absorb additional demand as the industrial sector rebounds.
- Strategic Focus and Service Differentiation as an Independent Company: As an independent public company, FedEx Freight is implementing a refined strategy concentrating on profitable growth and service differentiation. This separation from its former parent company is expected to enhance its ability to compete more effectively with other LTL carriers by allowing for a strategy specifically tailored to the LTL trucking industry. This focused approach aims to strengthen its competitive position and drive market share gains.
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Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 179.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.2 |
| Rev LTM | 5,456 |
| Op Inc LTM | 537 |
| FCF LTM | 458 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 83 |
| CFO LTM | 906 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 864 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -19.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -9.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
Price Behavior
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FDXF Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.54 | 0.21 | 3.48 | 1.25 | 0.85 | 1.70 |
| Up Beta | -1.46 | -7.42 | 8.39 | -2.38 | -1.64 | -1.71 |
| Down Beta | -1.81 | 2.60 | 0.53 | -3.96 | -1.55 | -2.91 |
| Up Capture | -20% | 25% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 0% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Down Capture | 45% | 36% | 31% | 13% | 9% | 5% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FDXF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDXF | -0.5% | 87.8% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 20.7% | 16.6% | 0.96 | 13.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 1.00 | -2.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.8% | 28.1% | 0.66 | 3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.6% | 19.5% | 1.21 | 0.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 14.1% | 0.69 | 19.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.0% | 43.0% | -1.31 | -8.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FDXF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDXF | -0.1% | 87.8% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.6% | 17.5% | 0.65 | 13.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.59 | -2.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 0.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.9% | 0.07 | 19.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.8% | 53.5% | 0.47 | -8.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FDXF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDXF | -0.0% | 87.8% | 0.33 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.0% | 20.0% | 0.61 | 13.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | -2.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 3.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.9% | 18.0% | 0.30 | 0.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 19.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | -8.7% |
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Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/28/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/25/2026 | -2.9% | -4.9% | -5.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -4.9% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -2.9% | -4.9% | -5.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/25/2026 | -2.9% | -4.9% | -5.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -4.9% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -2.9% | -4.9% | -5.2% |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Cargo Ground Transportation Resources |
| Transport Topics |
| Commercial Carrier Journal (CCJ) |
| FreightWaves |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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