FedEx Freight (FDXF)
Market Price (9/7/2026): $129.0 | Market Cap: $19.3 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
FedEx Freight (FDXF)
Market Price (9/7/2026): $129.0Market Cap: $19.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% | Key risksFDXF key risks include [1] sensitivity to economic cycles and fluctuating freight demand, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% |
| Key risksFDXF key risks include [1] sensitivity to economic cycles and fluctuating freight demand, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
FedEx Freight (FDXF) stock has lost about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Spin-off and Associated Market Re-evaluation: FedEx Freight Holding Company (FDXF) commenced trading as an independent public company on June 1, 2026, following its spin-off from FedEx (FDX). This transition likely led to a market re-evaluation of the standalone entity. Furthermore, FedEx (FDX) indicated that it plans to dispose of its remaining 19.9% stake in FDXF, which may have contributed to anticipated selling pressure on FDXF's stock.
2. Weakening Freight Market Demand: The broader freight market experienced a softening in demand during fiscal Q1 2027 (June-August 2026). Projections for Q3 2026 indicated a decline in total U.S. imports year-over-year, with decreases of 6.4% in July, 8.6% in August, and an anticipated 2.2% in September. The overall demand outlook was described as "muted in an uncertain economic backdrop".
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FedEx Freight (FDXF) stock has lost about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Spin-off and Associated Market Re-evaluation: FedEx Freight Holding Company (FDXF) commenced trading as an independent public company on June 1, 2026, following its spin-off from FedEx (FDX). This transition likely led to a market re-evaluation of the standalone entity. Furthermore, FedEx (FDX) indicated that it plans to dispose of its remaining 19.9% stake in FDXF, which may have contributed to anticipated selling pressure on FDXF's stock.
2. Weakening Freight Market Demand: The broader freight market experienced a softening in demand during fiscal Q1 2027 (June-August 2026). Projections for Q3 2026 indicated a decline in total U.S. imports year-over-year, with decreases of 6.4% in July, 8.6% in August, and an anticipated 2.2% in September. The overall demand outlook was described as "muted in an uncertain economic backdrop".
3. Rising Operational Costs: The freight industry faced significant increases in operational expenses during the period. Truckload spot rates in Q2 2026 rose by 32.4% year-over-year, while contract rates increased by 6.0% year-over-year. Additionally, the former parent company, FedEx (FDX), reported higher wages and a substantial jump in fuel costs in its Federal Express division, indicating similar cost pressures likely affecting FDXF's profitability as a Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) carrier.
4. Disappointing Outlook from Parent Company: Although FDXF operates independently, the disappointing calendar year 2026 guidance issued by its former parent company, FedEx (FDX), around June 22-24, 2026, likely cast a negative shadow on the broader logistics sector, including FDXF. FedEx (FDX) projected adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) in the range of $16.90 to $18.10 for calendar year 2026, falling below analysts' consensus estimate of $19.86 per share. This cautious outlook contributed to investor pessimism at a time when FDXF had yet to release its own fiscal Q1 2027 earnings, which are estimated for October 28, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.3% change in FDXF stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 160.37 | 129.45 | -19.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 150 | 150 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDXF | -19.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.8% | 4.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 1.2% | 25.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDXF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 5.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | -0.8% | 18.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDXF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 20.4% | 5.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 16.5% | 18.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDXF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 77.1% | 5.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 68.7% | 18.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FDXF Return | - | - | - | - | - | -16% | -16% |
| Peers Return | 97% | -28% | 85% | 4% | -15% | 35% | 213% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FDXF Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 40% | 68% | 50% | 47% | 49% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 56% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FDXF Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -42% | -24% | -29% | -44% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ODFL, XPO, SAIA, ARCB, TFII.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
FDXF has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 62 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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FDXF has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About FedEx Freight (FDXF)
FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) specializes in providing less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation services. This core business involves consolidating multiple smaller shipments from various customers onto a single truck, making it an efficient solution for businesses that do not have enough goods to fill an entire semi-trailer.
The company's primary service allows businesses to transport palletized freight and other general commodities cost-effectively, catering to a wide range of industries that require reliable shipping for volumes between parcel and full truckload. FedEx Freight operates an extensive network, serving customers across the United States, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
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1. Think of it as the UPS for business freight, specializing in combining smaller cargo loads that don't fill an entire truck.
2. It's the bridge between companies like FedEx Express (for packages) and full truckload carriers, handling larger B2B shipments that don't need a dedicated truck.
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- Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) Freight Transportation: This service involves the movement of freight shipments that are too large for standard parcel services but do not require the entire capacity of a full truck trailer.
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Here are the key risks to the business of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (symbol: FDXF):
- Sensitivity to Economic Cycles and Fluctuations in Freight Demand: As a less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation provider, FedEx Freight's business is highly correlated with overall economic activity and industrial production. During economic downturns or periods of reduced consumer spending, freight volumes typically decrease, leading to lower demand for transportation services. Declining freight volumes often lead to underutilized trucks, directly impacting profitability. This can result in pricing pressures and a significant negative impact on the company's revenue and profitability. An "Economic Slowdown or Slow Recovery" is a top risk facing transportation and logistics organizations.
- Labor Shortages and Escalating Operating Costs: The freight transportation industry consistently faces challenges in recruiting, training, and retaining qualified drivers and other essential personnel. Increasing transportation costs are a pressing challenge in LTL shipping. Shortages of skilled labor, coupled with rising wage demands and increased benefit costs, can lead to higher operating expenses and reduced operational efficiency, potentially affecting service quality and profitability.
- Intense Competition and Pricing Pressures: The less-than-truckload market is highly competitive, characterized by a mix of national, regional, and specialized carriers. Reduced shipment volumes can increase competition among carriers, which can destabilize the market. This intense competition can lead to pricing pressures, making it difficult for the company to pass on cost increases or improve profit margins, especially as a company navigating an established market. "Increasing Competition" is identified as a top current risk for transportation and logistics organizations.
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The addressable markets for FedEx Freight's main service, less-than-truckload (LTL) freight transportation, are detailed below:
- United States: The Less-than-Truck-Load market size in the United States was estimated at USD 118.68 billion in 2026. This market is projected to grow to USD 144.97 billion by 2031, with a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.08%.
- Canada: The LTL market in Canada is approximately USD 7,643.49 million (or about USD 7.64 billion) in 2025. It is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.59%.
- Mexico: The LTL market in Mexico is valued at approximately USD 4,703.90 million (or about USD 4.70 billion) in 2025. This market is projected to expand at a CAGR of 5.21%.
- Puerto Rico: The LTL market in Puerto Rico contributes an estimated USD 331.01 million. This market is driven by import-export intermodal logistics and has a CAGR of 4.11%.
- U.S. Virgin Islands: null
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FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) anticipates future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic and market-related factors following its spin-off as an independent public company in June 2026.
Here are the key expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- Yield Improvement and Stronger Pricing Execution: A significant portion of FedEx Freight's projected revenue growth is expected to come from improved yield, supported by stronger pricing execution. The company reported an 11.5% increase in revenue per shipment and an 8.2% rise in revenue per hundredweight in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. This trend, coupled with sustained higher fuel prices contributing to surcharges and more focused sales efforts as a standalone entity, is expected to support ongoing yield-based revenue growth.
- Growing Market Demand for LTL Services and Industrial Recovery: FedEx Freight is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing market demand for Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) services. This demand is fueled by factors such as e-commerce expansion and evolving supply chain complexities. Furthermore, the company anticipates benefiting from an industrial recovery, as evidenced by improving manufacturing indicators. With approximately 30% spare capacity, FedEx Freight is equipped to absorb additional demand as the industrial sector rebounds.
- Strategic Focus and Service Differentiation as an Independent Company: As an independent public company, FedEx Freight is implementing a refined strategy concentrating on profitable growth and service differentiation. This separation from its former parent company is expected to enhance its ability to compete more effectively with other LTL carriers by allowing for a strategy specifically tailored to the LTL trucking industry. This focused approach aims to strengthen its competitive position and drive market share gains.
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Peer Outperformance in Cargo Ground Transportation
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 20.5% | 108.4% | 188.0% | CDNL 2702% · FIX 2105% · STRL 2023% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 70.5% | 68.4% | 166.4% | HOS 48321% · MATX 186% · KEX 166% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 14.3% | 66.0% | 119.0% | CAT 326% · ALSN 281% · WAB 228% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 55 | -1.8% | 61.1% | 72.0% | ATI 1099% · FTAI 916% · HWM 741% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -11.2% | 55.0% | 55.1% | UBER 85% · CAR 55% · LYFT -67% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 10.1% | 45.7% | 48.4% | CRS 1444% · PSIX 952% · EROC 609% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 31.0% | 74.7% | 47.4% | FSTR 138% · CSX 68% · UNP 52% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation ← | 16 | 38.0% | 7.2% | 36.2% | XPO 266% · R 250% · CVLG 216% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 2.7% | 33.6% | 32.5% | DXPE 545% · AIT 293% · WCC 220% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 12.7% | 31.0% | 28.0% | LIME 4173% · WLFC 368% · TH 366% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 41 | 17.6% | 52.2% | 22.5% | POWL 2220% · BE 1076% · VRT 905% |
| Building Products | 33 | -11.0% | 6.3% | 19.3% | LMB 593% · GFF 397% · PPIH 303% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 14.1% | 5.8% | -5.3% | BLBD 215% · DE 99% · GENC 55% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -10.1% | -21.2% | -5.4% | HURN 216% · GRNQ 140% · CRAI 92% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -8.4% | 21.4% | -11.5% | CECO 888% · ADUR 558% · NVRI 351% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 10.5% | 14.5% | -13.7% | RCMT 609% · CSW 139% · CSL 83% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -31.3% | -12.6% | -24.8% | EXLS 50% · BR 13% · G -22% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 2.4% | 1.3% | -26.4% | LTM 2779% · UAL 139% · SKYW 116% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 12.0% | 26.8% | -30.1% | PBI 193% · TILE 157% · HNI 59% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 8.4% | -18.2% | -35.1% | BBSI 87% · ADP 53% · KFY 29% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -8.2% | -21.6% | -38.0% | CHRW 88% · FDX 68% · EXPD 63% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -36.1% | 7.9% | -40.1% | CIX 139% · MG 101% · NL 54% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -67.1% | -76.8% | -57.2% | JOBY -30% · ASLE -57% · UP -100% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 163.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.3 |
| Rev LTM | 5,603 |
| Op Inc LTM | 584 |
| FCF LTM | 588 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 111 |
| CFO LTM | 915 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 923 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 1.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -5.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
Price Behavior
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.90 | 0.83 | 0.07 | 0.08 | -1.40 | -0.04 |
| Up Beta | 0.64 | 0.54 | -0.41 | -1.70 | -1.64 | -0.51 |
| Down Beta | 2.97 | -0.20 | -1.01 | 0.36 | -0.30 | -0.58 |
| Up Capture | 166% | 48% | 20% | 18% | 8% | 1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 18 | 28 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
| Down Capture | 389% | 203% | 113% | 66% | 41% | 23% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 24 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 37 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FDXF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDXF | -14.3% | 72.5% | -0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 17.0% | 17.1% | 0.75 | 18.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.7% | 12.8% | 1.13 | 5.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.6% | 29.2% | 0.75 | -2.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 43.8% | 20.3% | 1.67 | -8.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.1% | 13.6% | 0.39 | 21.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.1% | 43.8% | -0.63 | -8.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FDXF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDXF | -3.0% | 72.5% | -0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.4% | 17.6% | 0.54 | 18.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.2% | 0.57 | 5.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.1% | 18.8% | 0.82 | -2.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 19.5% | 0.43 | -8.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.7% | 18.9% | -0.01 | 21.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.2% | 52.6% | 0.38 | -8.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with FDXF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDXF | -1.5% | 72.5% | -0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.4% | 20.0% | 0.59 | 18.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 5.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.4% | 16.3% | 0.62 | -2.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 18.1% | 0.35 | -8.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 21.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.7% | 66.2% | 1.03 | -8.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/29/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/25/2026 | -2.9% | -4.9% | -5.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -4.9% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -2.9% | -4.9% | -5.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 6/25/2026 | -2.9% | -4.9% | -5.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -4.9% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | -2.9% | -4.9% | -5.2% |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Cargo Ground Transportation Resources |
| Transport Topics |
| Commercial Carrier Journal (CCJ) |
| FreightWaves |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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