FedEx Freight (FDXF)
Market Price (6/5/2026): $157.22 | Market Cap: $23.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
FedEx Freight (FDXF)
Market Price (6/5/2026): $157.22Market Cap: $23.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% | High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 193% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -40%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -76% |
| High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 193% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
FedEx Freight (FDXF) stock has gained about 5% since it went public on 5/27/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Immediate Inclusion in Major Market Indices.
FedEx Freight (FDXF) experienced significant mandatory demand from institutional investors and index funds due to its immediate inclusion in both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Transportation Average upon its spin-off and listing on June 1, 2026.
2. Market Leadership and Favorable Sector Dynamics for Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) Shipping.
As the largest North American less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier, FDXF is positioned to benefit from improving freight market conditions, which are showing signs of recovery after a multi-year slump and the exit of some competitors.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDXF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 10.7% | 31.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | -0.3% | 16.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDXF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 11.4% | 31.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 15.3% | 16.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDXF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 29.9% | 31.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 25.0% | 16.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/4/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| FDXF | ||
| Market (SPY) | 88.3% | 31.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 90.2% | 16.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FDXF Return | - | - | - | - | - | 1% | 1% |
| Peers Return | 97% | -28% | 85% | 4% | -15% | 60% | 270% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 101% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FDXF Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 73% | 40% | 68% | 50% | 47% | 77% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FDXF Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -22% | -42% | -24% | -29% | -44% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ODFL, XPO, SAIA, ARCB, TFII.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/4/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
FDXF has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.2% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 62 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
FDXF has limited trading history. Below is the Industrials sector ETF (XLI) in its place.
| Event | XLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -20.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 125 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -23.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 153.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 700 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -15.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 189.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.2 |
| Rev LTM | 5,456 |
| Op Inc LTM | 537 |
| FCF LTM | 458 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 83 |
| CFO LTM | 906 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 864 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -19.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -9.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.2 |
| P/S | 3.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 33.8 |
| P/EBIT | 35.9 |
| P/E | 50.8 |
| P/CFO | 20.2 |
| Total Yield | 2.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 17.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 58.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 82.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 59.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 6.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 57.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 55.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -19.9% |
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/3/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Median Positive | |||
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | |||
| Max Negative | |||
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Cargo Ground Transportation Resources |
| Transport Topics |
| Commercial Carrier Journal (CCJ) |
| FreightWaves |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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