Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
Market Price (11/10/2026): $91.11 | Market Cap: $12.2 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Footwear
Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
Market Price (11/10/2026): $91.11Market Cap: $12.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Footwear
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 8.6% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 24% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -73%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81% | Key risksDECK key risks include [1] its dependence on a limited supply of quality sheepskin for its UGG brand and [2] its significant sales concentration in the UGG and HOKA brands. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.2%, FCF Yield is 8.6% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 24% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Health & Wellness Trends. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -73%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -81% |
| Key risksDECK key risks include [1] its dependence on a limited supply of quality sheepskin for its UGG brand and [2] its significant sales concentration in the UGG and HOKA brands. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Deckers Outdoor (DECK) stock has lost about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q2 2027 Revenue Miss and Tariff-Boosted Earnings.
Deckers Outdoor Corporation, whose fiscal year ends March 31, reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.31 for its fiscal Q2 2027 (ended September 30, 2026), surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.79. However, the company's revenue of $1.48 billion for the quarter fell short of the $1.51 billion estimate. The reported EPS beat was notably bolstered by an approximate $0.28 per share benefit from one-time IEEPA tariff refunds, leading to investor perception of a less organic earnings performance.
2. Weakened Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Sales and Domestic Market Softness.
During fiscal Q2 2027, Deckers experienced a 1.8% decrease in Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) net sales, with comparable DTC sales declining by 6.4%. This company-specific slowdown was coupled with broader softness in the domestic market, as U.S. net sales declined 0.4%. These trends indicated a challenging consumer environment despite solid performance from key brands like HOKA, which saw net sales increase 6.8% to $677.2 million, and UGG, with a 3.5% increase in net sales to $786.4 million.
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Deckers Outdoor (DECK) stock has lost about 5% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Fiscal Q2 2027 Revenue Miss and Tariff-Boosted Earnings.
Deckers Outdoor Corporation, whose fiscal year ends March 31, reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.31 for its fiscal Q2 2027 (ended September 30, 2026), surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.79. However, the company's revenue of $1.48 billion for the quarter fell short of the $1.51 billion estimate. The reported EPS beat was notably bolstered by an approximate $0.28 per share benefit from one-time IEEPA tariff refunds, leading to investor perception of a less organic earnings performance.
2. Weakened Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Sales and Domestic Market Softness.
During fiscal Q2 2027, Deckers experienced a 1.8% decrease in Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) net sales, with comparable DTC sales declining by 6.4%. This company-specific slowdown was coupled with broader softness in the domestic market, as U.S. net sales declined 0.4%. These trends indicated a challenging consumer environment despite solid performance from key brands like HOKA, which saw net sales increase 6.8% to $677.2 million, and UGG, with a 3.5% increase in net sales to $786.4 million.
3. Lowered Fiscal Year 2027 Revenue Guidance.
Following the release of its fiscal Q2 2027 results, Deckers lowered its full fiscal year 2027 revenue guidance. The company now expects revenue to be in the range of $5.7 billion to $5.725 billion, a reduction from its previous outlook of $5.86 billion to $5.91 billion. This revised guidance represents an approximate 2.9% decrease at the midpoint and reflects a more cautious outlook due to increased promotional activity in the U.S. market and evolving consumer pressures.
4. Broader Footwear Industry Headwinds.
The overall U.S. footwear industry faced headwinds during the third calendar quarter of 2026 (largely corresponding to Deckers' fiscal Q2 2027), with dollar sales remaining flat year-over-year while units sold declined in the mid-single digits. The lifestyle footwear market, particularly relevant for Deckers' UGG brand, was described as "difficult" with prevalent discounts. Although performance footwear, such as running shoes (a key category for HOKA), continued to show strength with a 10% increase in dollar sales, consumers generally became more selective in their discretionary spending, impacting overall market demand.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.7% change in DECK stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -12.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 96.88 | 90.43 | -6.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,527 | 5,577 | 0.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.4% | 19.0% | 3.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.2 | 11.5 | -12.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 138 | 135 | 2.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DECK | -6.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.8% | 42.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 4.2% | 75.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.5% change in DECK stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -18.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 102.20 | 90.43 | -11.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,375 | 5,577 | 3.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.3% | 19.0% | -1.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.2 | 11.5 | -18.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 144 | 135 | 6.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DECK | -11.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.0% | 33.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | 2.5% | 63.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.0% change in DECK stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.1% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 81.50 | 90.43 | 11.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 5,244 | 5,577 | 6.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.4% | 19.0% | -1.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 11.8 | 11.5 | -2.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 147 | 135 | 9.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DECK | 11.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.3% | 33.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.5% | 50.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -9.1% change in DECK stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -60.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 99.51 | 90.43 | -9.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,689 | 5,577 | 51.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.5% | 19.0% | 30.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.2 | 11.5 | -60.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 157 | 135 | 16.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -9.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DECK | -9.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.2% | 44.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 62.8% | 50.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DECK Return | 28% | 9% | 67% | 82% | -49% | -13% | 89% |
| Peers Return | 23% | -35% | -14% | 33% | -20% | 25% | -8% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 96% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DECK Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 67% | 67% | 33% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 28% | 53% | 48% | 43% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 36% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DECK Max Drawdown | -25% | -38% | -14% | -23% | -64% | -36% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -56% | -44% | -28% | -48% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NKE, CROX, VFC, COLM, WWW. See DECK Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DECK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -12.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 159 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 499 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 745 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Deckers Outdoor's stock fell -5.8% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 6.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | DECK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -38.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.2% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 159 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 76 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -40.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 499 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 745 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.6% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -77.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 337.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 473 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Deckers Outdoor's stock fell -5.8% during the 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind. Such a loss loss requires a 6.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is a global designer, marketer, and distributor of a diverse range of footwear, apparel, and accessories. The company caters to both casual lifestyle consumers and high-performance athletes, offering products that span everyday comfort and specialized athletic needs.
Deckers manages a portfolio of well-known brands, each targeting distinct market segments. Its flagship brand, UGG, is recognized for premium casual footwear, apparel, and accessories. Other notable brands include Teva and Sanuk, which offer sandals and relaxed casual shoes, while Hoka provides specialized footwear and apparel for ultra-runners and athletes. The company also offers fashion casual footwear under the Koolaburra brand.
Deckers distributes its products through a multi-channel approach, reaching consumers directly via its own retail stores and e-commerce websites. Additionally, it leverages a broad network of wholesale partners, including department stores, national retail chains, independent specialty retailers, and online retailers. The company's market presence is global, with sales and distribution operations across the United States, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America.
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1. A footwear-focused VF Corporation.
2. Like Gap Inc., but for a diverse portfolio of footwear brands rather than apparel.
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- UGG products: Premium footwear, apparel, and accessories, often featuring sheepskin and other plush materials.
- Teva products: Sandals, shoes, and boots designed for various activities.
- Sanuk products: Relaxed casual shoes and sandals.
- Hoka products: Performance footwear and apparel specifically for ultra-runners and athletes.
- Koolaburra products: Fashion casual footwear, frequently utilizing sheepskin and other plush materials.
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Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) sells its products through various channels, including department stores, domestic independent action sports and outdoor specialty footwear retailers, larger national retail chains, and online retailers (B2B wholesale). However, the specific names of these major customer companies are not provided in the background information.
Deckers Outdoor also sells its products directly to individual consumers through its own retail stores and e-commerce websites. Based on its brand portfolio, the company serves the following categories of individual customers:
- Athletes and Active Lifestyle Enthusiasts: This category includes ultra-runners and athletes who purchase performance footwear and apparel under the Hoka brand, as well as individuals seeking durable and functional sandals, shoes, and boots for outdoor activities and an active lifestyle from the Teva brand. These customers prioritize performance, comfort, and durability for high-performance activities and outdoor adventures.
- Casual Lifestyle and Comfort Seekers: This broad category encompasses consumers looking for premium, comfortable, and stylish footwear, apparel, and accessories for everyday wear. Brands like UGG cater to those desiring luxury, warmth, and on-trend casual styles, while Sanuk appeals to individuals seeking relaxed, comfortable, and casual shoes and sandals. These customers value comfort, style, and ease of wear in their daily lives.
- Fashion-Conscious Consumers: Primarily targeted by brands such as UGG and Koolaburra, this segment includes individuals who seek trendy and fashionable footwear and accessories. Koolaburra, in particular, focuses on fashion casual footwear using plush materials, appealing to those who desire stylish options, while UGG also maintains a strong fashion presence. These customers are driven by current trends and the aesthetic appeal of their footwear.
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Stefano Caroti
Chief Executive Officer, President & Director
Mr. Caroti was appointed Chief Executive Officer and President of Deckers Outdoor Corporation on August 1, 2024, and was elected to the Board in September 2024. He brings over 32 years of industry experience across general management, sales, retail, product, marketing, business strategy, and brand management. Prior to his current role, he served as Deckers' Chief Commercial Officer and President of Omni-Channel. Before joining Deckers, Mr. Caroti was the Chief Commercial Officer and Managing Director at PUMA from August 2008 to December 2014, where he was responsible for the company's global wholesale, retail, and e-commerce divisions. He also held several senior executive positions at NIKE, Inc. in general management, sales, product, and marketing, including Vice President of EMEA commerce.
Steven J. Fasching
Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Fasching was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Deckers Outdoor Corporation in June 2018. He joined Deckers in August 2011 as Vice President, Strategic Financial Planning, and subsequently served as Vice President, Strategy & Investor Relations from January 2016 to February 2018, and Senior Vice President, Corporate Strategy, Planning & Investor Relations since February 2018. Mr. Fasching possesses over 30 years of experience in long-term financial and strategic planning within multi-billion dollar organizations. Before his tenure at Deckers, he held senior finance-related roles at Princess Cruises.
Angela Ogbechie
Chief Supply Chain Officer
Ms. Ogbechie was appointed Chief Supply Chain Officer of Deckers Outdoor Corporation in June 2022. Prior to this, she served as Senior Vice President, Global Operations and Supply Chain Strategy since November 2021. Ms. Ogbechie has been with Deckers since 2008, holding various senior supply chain positions and gaining extensive experience in global demand planning, logistics, distribution, and fulfillment. Before joining Deckers, she worked as a Senior Consultant at Grant Thornton LLP from July 2005 to June 2008. She holds a B.A. in Economics from Stanford University and an M.B.A. from Columbia University Business School.
Anne Spangenberg
President, Fashion Lifestyle Group
Ms. Spangenberg was appointed President of the Fashion Lifestyle Group in July 2022. She joined Deckers following a 13-year career at NIKE, Inc., where she held the position of Chief Merchant. Her prior experience includes leadership roles at Gap, Inc. and Macy's West. Ms. Spangenberg has over 25 years of experience in global consumer-focused omni-channel retail, covering product creation, merchandising, buying, analytics, stores, digital, wholesale, and vertical. She earned her B.A. in International Relations from the University of California, Davis.
Robin Green
President, HOKA Brand
Ms. Green was appointed President of HOKA in February 2024. Before joining Deckers, she spent 17 years at NIKE, Inc., where she advanced through various roles, culminating in her position as Global Vice President of Men's Running and Fitness. She has over 20 years of experience across the global consumer products landscape, with strong expertise in leading and operating complex businesses to maximize their potential and drive growth. Ms. Green holds a B.A. in Economics from the University of California, Davis.
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Key Risks to Deckers Outdoor (DECK)
- Macroeconomic Headwinds and Consumer Spending Sensitivity: Deckers operates in the consumer discretionary sector, making its business highly sensitive to economic cycles, inflationary pressures, and changes in consumer disposable income. Economic downturns or cautious consumer behavior can lead to reduced demand for footwear and apparel, increased promotional activities, and potential "demand erosion," directly impacting profitability and sales, particularly for the company's direct-to-consumer strategy which relies on full-price sales.
- Intense Competition: The footwear and apparel industry is highly competitive, with numerous companies vying for market share. Deckers faces significant challenges from aggressive strategies by competitors such as Nike and Adidas, especially in segments where its Hoka brand operates. Maintaining market share and competitive positioning necessitates continuous product innovation, differentiation, and substantial marketing and research and development expenditures. Additionally, the company faces risks from counterfeit product sales, which can dilute brand value and lead to legal disputes.
- Supply Chain Disruptions and Concentration: Deckers' ability to timely source, manufacture, and distribute its products is critical. The company's supply chain is vulnerable to disruptions, including those arising from geopolitical tensions and manufacturing concentration in specific regions, such as Vietnam for a significant portion of its footwear. Furthermore, reliance on specific raw materials like sheepskin for a considerable portion of UGG brand products, coupled with limited suppliers and specific quality requirements, poses a risk if supply is interrupted, prices become unacceptable, or if there are legal or social impediments to its use. Such disruptions can interrupt product flow, increase production and transportation costs, and lead to inventory shortages and lost sales.
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Deckers Outdoor Corporation (symbol: DECK) operates in several footwear market segments through its main brands. The addressable market sizes for their primary products or services are outlined below:
- UGG: The global UGG boots market size was valued at approximately USD 2.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% from 2023 to 2030. North America is the largest market for UGG boots.
- Teva: The global sandals market size is valued at USD 70.62 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 110.28 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.73%.
- Sanuk: This brand falls under the broader casual footwear market. The global casual shoes market is estimated to reach USD 163.1 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 7.4% from 2024 to 2030. North America held the majority market share of 37% in 2023 within the casual shoes market.
- Hoka: This brand is a key player in the athletic footwear market. The global athletic footwear market size was valued at USD 152.78 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach USD 234.68 billion by 2034, at a CAGR of 5.51%.
- Koolaburra: This brand operates within the sheepskin boots market and casual footwear segment. The global market size for sheepskin boots was valued at approximately USD 1.8 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 3.6 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 7.8%.
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Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Continued Expansion of the HOKA Brand: The HOKA brand is consistently highlighted as a primary engine for Deckers' financial performance and is forecast to continue its explosive growth, aiming to surpass $2.5 billion in annual sales by fiscal year 2026. This growth is driven by increasing market share in the performance running category, new product launches, and diversification into apparel.
- UGG Brand Resilience and Expanded Appeal: While HOKA leads growth, the UGG brand is projected to continue its strong performance, with expectations for mid-single-digit growth. The company's strategy focuses on transforming UGG into a year-round luxury lifestyle brand, expanding its men's category, and implementing a "365 initiative" to reduce seasonal concentration and broaden global acceptance.
- Strategic Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) Channel Growth: Deckers is heavily investing in its high-margin direct-to-consumer operations, encompassing e-commerce and a global network of retail stores. The DTC channel is considered a cornerstone of its sales and marketing strategy, delivering higher gross margins and providing valuable first-party customer data, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.3%. In fiscal year 2024, DTC sales accounted for 45% of net sales, and this focus is expected to continue driving revenue and profitability.
- Aggressive International Market Expansion: International markets are a significant growth opportunity for Deckers, particularly for the HOKA brand, and are expected to outpace U.S. growth. The company is actively targeting EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) and APAC (Asia-Pacific) regions to diversify revenue streams. In fiscal year 2024, HOKA net sales surged by 45.2% in EMEA and 78.5% in APAC, demonstrating the success of this international push.
- Product Category Diversification and Innovation: Deckers continues to invest in innovation and product diversification to capture new market share and increase customer spend. This includes the successful launch of HOKA's dedicated apparel line in 2024, aimed at competing more holistically within the athleticwear market. Additionally, strategic acquisitions, such as Feetures for performance socks, provide immediate entry into new product categories.
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Share Repurchases
- In May 2025, Deckers Outdoor's Board of Directors approved an increase of $2.25 billion to its stock repurchase program, bringing the total authorization to approximately $2.5 billion.
- The company repurchased approximately 3.8 million shares for a total of $567 million in fiscal year 2025.
- In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Deckers repurchased an additional 765,000 shares for $84 million as of May 9, 2025.
Outbound Investments
- Deckers Outdoor divested its Sanuk brand in 2024, selling it to Lolë Brands.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for Deckers Outdoor averaged $67.959 million from fiscal years ending March 2021 to 2025.
- Capital expenditures peaked in March 2024 at $89.365 million and were $86.171 million in March 2025.
- For fiscal year 2026, the company expects to deploy focused capital expenditures in the range of $120 million to $130 million to support future growth.
Peer Outperformance in Footwear
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -14.8% | 35.2% | 48.5% | CVSA 240% · GHC 115% · LRN 112% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | 5.9% | 30.8% | 30.1% | PHM 174% · TOL 158% · GRBK 156% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -3.6% | 15.6% | 14.9% | MUSA 192% · PAG 116% · ORLY 109% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 20.0% | 70.0% | 14.9% | RCL 282% · MAR 164% · HLT 155% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -2.1% | 8.9% | 5.6% | LOW 10% · HD 8% · FND -60% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | 6.8% | 82.0% | 1.7% | SGI 57% · MHK -10% |
| Footwear ← | 9 | 83.4% | 101.1% | -10.2% | DECK 28% · SHOO -5% · CROX -10% |
| Restaurants | 36 | 4.9% | -1.1% | -17.9% | EAT 357% · CAKE 174% · TXRH 121% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -11.0% | 32.7% | -22.0% | FTDR 186% · HRB 142% · SCI 20% |
| Distributors | 4 | -3.9% | -14.3% | -23.7% | ARMK 108% · GPC 8% · POOL -55% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 41.6% | 91.8% | -24.9% | BBY 1% · GME -50% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -16.8% | -2.4% | -32.7% | GOLF 61% · HAS 50% · BC -10% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 22.0% | 9.1% | -35.1% | OSW 172% · LTH 142% · PLNT -35% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 41.6% | 20.6% | -38.2% | WHR -82% |
| Broadline Retail | 12 | 1.8% | 37.9% | -43.8% | EBAY 79% · AMZN 49% · OLLI 35% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | 18.9% | 25.2% | -46.3% | TPR 264% · RL 240% · KTB 63% |
| Apparel Retail | 27 | -2.8% | 12.8% | -47.5% | ANF 232% · VSXY 125% · TJX 112% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 21 | -27.7% | -16.1% | -51.8% | RRR 29% · BYD 28% · LVS 5% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 37 | -11.0% | -16.5% | -52.4% | GTX 197% · PATK 76% · ALV 39% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 25 | -0.8% | -6.1% | -56.0% | ULTA 68% · ASO 57% · ARHS 33% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -25.8% | -17.1% | -79.5% | GRMN 123% · SONO -51% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 9 | -60.6% | -42.4% | -86.1% | GM 60% · TSLA 11% · F -16% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 56.08 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.9 |
| Rev LTM | 4,839 |
| Op Inc LTM | 795 |
| FCF LTM | 695 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 651 |
| CFO LTM | 822 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 762 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 13.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 9.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.9 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 11.5 |
| P/EBIT | 11.4 |
| P/E | 16.0 |
| P/CFO | 10.4 |
| Total Yield | 8.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 20.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 16.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 42.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 24.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 26.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 26.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 21.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 35.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -45.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGG | 2,739 | 2,531 | 2,239 | 1,929 | 1,088 |
| HOKA | 2,587 | 2,233 | 1,807 | 1,413 | 629 |
| Other Brands | 146 | 221 | 242 | 285 | 61 |
| Direct-to-Consumer | 1,214 | ||||
| Sanuk brand wholesale | 30 | ||||
| Teva brand wholesale | 129 | ||||
| Total | 5,472 | 4,986 | 4,288 | 3,627 | 3,150 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UGG | 1,045 | 1,003 | 805 | 572 | 315 |
| HOKA | 911 | 849 | 719 | 528 | 155 |
| Other Brands | 16 | 35 | 24 | 50 | 14 |
| Unallocated enterprise and shared brand expenses | -710 | -707 | -620 | -498 | |
| Direct-to-Consumer | 435 | ||||
| Sanuk brand wholesale | 6 | ||||
| Teva brand wholesale | 33 | ||||
| Unallocated overhead costs | -395 | ||||
| Total | 1,263 | 1,179 | 928 | 653 | 565 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unallocated cash and cash equivalents | 1,502 | 982 | 844 | 1,089 | 649 |
| Unallocated other corporate assets | 504 | 414 | 393 | 320 | 312 |
| HOKA | 436 | 446 | 293 | 168 | 125 |
| Direct-to-Consumer | 264 | 219 | 191 | 196 | 243 |
| UGG | 247 | 262 | 383 | 212 | 245 |
| Teva brand wholesale | 82 | 95 | 91 | 87 | 90 |
| Unallocated deferred tax assets, net | 73 | 73 | 64 | 37 | 28 |
| Sanuk brand wholesale | 19 | 41 | 41 | 38 | 50 |
| Other Brands | 9 | 24 | 32 | 19 | 22 |
| Total | 3,136 | 2,556 | 2,332 | 2,168 | 1,765 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $90.43 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 12.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/15/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -25.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $82.40 | $98.85 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 9.8% | -8.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 35.2% | 41.8% |
| Downside Capture | 104.62 | 107.96 |
| Upside Capture | 86.12 | 105.91 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 35.1% | 31.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.75 | 1.21 | 1.18 | 0.94 | 1.05 | 1.31 |
| Up Beta | -4.80 | 0.59 | 0.80 | 0.14 | 0.87 | 1.29 |
| Down Beta | 0.99 | 0.82 | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.40 | 1.23 |
| Up Capture | 147% | 130% | 87% | 76% | 90% | 162% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 20 | 28 | 54 | 112 | 368 |
| Down Capture | 56% | 154% | 180% | 138% | 104% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 23 | 36 | 72 | 139 | 382 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DECK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECK | 13.4% | 41.8% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 3.4% | 19.9% | 0.04 | 49.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 13.7% | 0.65 | 32.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.7% | 28.8% | 0.12 | 0.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.2% | 21.3% | 1.42 | -39.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.7% | 14.3% | 0.65 | 43.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -25.3% | 43.6% | -0.55 | 13.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DECK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECK | 5.7% | 44.1% | 0.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.2% | 24.2% | 0.13 | 55.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.8% | 17.3% | 0.51 | 49.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.8% | 19.1% | 0.75 | -0.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | -3.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.5% | 18.9% | -0.03 | 36.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.4% | 51.6% | 0.27 | 24.4% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DECK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECK | 25.9% | 42.6% | 0.69 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.1% | 22.3% | 0.53 | 56.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.72 | 49.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.1% | 16.5% | 0.60 | 2.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 8.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.1% | 20.7% | 0.25 | 38.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 14.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2026 | -4.9% | -3.0% | |
| 7/23/2026 | -0.2% | 3.6% | -4.7% |
| 5/21/2026 | 3.9% | 10.9% | 1.0% |
| 1/29/2026 | 19.5% | 11.3% | 14.6% |
| 10/23/2025 | -15.2% | -21.1% | -17.0% |
| 7/24/2025 | 11.3% | 1.2% | 4.0% |
| 5/22/2025 | -19.9% | -16.3% | -18.9% |
| 1/30/2025 | -20.5% | -22.8% | -38.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 17 | 17 |
| # Negative | 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 9.8% | 7.7% | 9.2% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -5.0% | -18.0% |
| Max Positive | 19.5% | 24.0% | 35.5% |
| Max Negative | -20.5% | -22.8% | -38.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/22/2026 | -4.9% | -3.0% | |
| 7/23/2026 | -0.2% | 3.6% | -4.7% |
| 5/21/2026 | 3.9% | 10.9% | 1.0% |
| 1/29/2026 | 19.5% | 11.3% | 14.6% |
| 10/23/2025 | -15.2% | -21.1% | -17.0% |
| 7/24/2025 | 11.3% | 1.2% | 4.0% |
| 5/22/2025 | -19.9% | -16.3% | -18.9% |
| 1/30/2025 | -20.5% | -22.8% | -38.5% |
| 10/24/2024 | 10.6% | 5.8% | 26.4% |
| 7/25/2024 | 6.3% | 7.7% | 15.8% |
| 5/23/2024 | 14.2% | 20.9% | 7.8% |
| 2/1/2024 | 14.1% | 7.7% | 19.9% |
| 10/26/2023 | 18.9% | 24.0% | 35.5% |
| 7/27/2023 | -0.6% | 3.4% | -2.9% |
| 5/25/2023 | 3.4% | 5.9% | 13.8% |
| 2/2/2023 | -1.7% | -0.1% | 2.9% |
| 10/27/2022 | -4.1% | -1.0% | 6.5% |
| 7/28/2022 | 9.0% | 9.0% | 14.3% |
| 5/19/2022 | 12.6% | 15.6% | 13.9% |
| 2/3/2022 | -5.7% | -5.0% | -27.1% |
| 10/28/2021 | 3.9% | 9.4% | 9.2% |
| 7/29/2021 | 1.0% | 7.0% | 4.1% |
| 5/20/2021 | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% |
| 2/4/2021 | -0.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 17 | 17 |
| # Negative | 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 9.8% | 7.7% | 9.2% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -5.0% | -18.0% |
| Max Positive | 19.5% | 24.0% | 35.5% |
| Max Negative | -20.5% | -22.8% | -38.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/22/2026 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/24/2024 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/26/2023 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/22/2026 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/23/2025 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/24/2024 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/26/2023 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/27/2022 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/28/2021 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/08/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 06/01/2020 | 10-K |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/06/2020 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/23/2026Latest: Q2 2027 Earnings Reported 10/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Net Consolidated Sales | Reported | 5.70 Bil | 5.71 Bil | 5.72 Bil | -2.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.88 Bil for 2027 | |
| 2027 Gross Margin | Reported | 58.5% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 56.5% for 2027 | |||
| 2027 SG&A Expenses % of Net Sales | Reported | 35.5% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 35.0% for 2027 | |||
| 2027 Operating Margin | Reported | 23.0% | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 21.5% for 2027 | |||
| 2027 Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 23.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 23.0% for 2027 | |||
| 2027 Diluted Earnings Per Share | Reported | 7.8 | 7.88 | 7.95 | 6.8% | Raised | Guidance: 7.38 for 2027 | |
| 2027 Share Repurchases | Reported | 1.00 Bil | ||||||
Prior: Q1 2027 Earnings Reported 7/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Net Consolidated Sales | Reported | 5.86 Bil | 5.88 Bil | 5.91 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.88 Bil for 2027 | |
| 2027 Gross Margin | Reported | 56.5% | 56.5% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 56.5% for 2027 | ||
| 2027 SG&A expenses % of net sales | Reported | 35.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 35.0% for 2027 | |||
| 2027 Operating Margin | Reported | 21.5% | 21.5% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 21.5% for 2027 | ||
| 2027 Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 23.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 23.0% for 2027 | |||
| 2027 Diluted Earnings Per Share | Reported | 7.35 | 7.43 | 7.5 | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 7.38 for 2027 | |
Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 5/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2027 Revenue | Reported | 5.86 Bil | 5.88 Bil | 5.91 Bil | 8.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 5.41 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2027 Gross Profit | Calculated | 3.31 Bil | 3.33 Bil | 3.34 Bil | Rev x Gross Margin | |||
| 2027 Gross Margin | Reported | 56.5% | -0.5% | Lower New | Guidance: 57.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2027 SG&A Expenses % of net sales | Reported | 35.0% | 0.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 34.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Operating Margin | Reported | 21.5% | -1.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 22.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 23.0% | ||||||
| 2027 EPS | Reported | 7.3 | 7.38 | 7.45 | 8.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 6.83 for 2026 | |
Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 1/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 5.40 Bil | 5.41 Bil | 5.42 Bil | 1.2% | Raised | Guidance: 5.35 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 HOKA Revenue Growth | Reported | 15.0% | 3.5% | Raised | Guidance: 11.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 UGG Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 4.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Gross Profit | Calculated | 3.08 Bil | 3.09 Bil | 3.09 Bil | Rev x Gross Margin | |||
| 2026 Gross Margin | Reported | 57.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 56.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 SG&A Expenses % of net sales | Reported | 34.5% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 34.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Operating Margin | Reported | 22.5% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 21.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 EPS | Reported | 6.8 | 6.83 | 6.85 | 7.6% | Raised | Guidance: 6.35 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 1.00 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spangenberg, Anne | President, Fashion Lifestyle | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 116.02 | 4,063 | 471,389 | 9,333,693 | Form |
| 2 | Spring-Green, Robin | President, Hoka | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 113.78 | 347 | 39,482 | 4,831,213 | Form |
| 3 | Shanahan, Lauri M | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 114.84 | 4,682 | 537,681 | 2,873,986 | Form | |
| 4 | Ogbechie, Angela | Chief Supply Chain Officer | Direct | Sell | 11032025 | 81.45 | 1,460 | 118,910 | 2,770,768 | Form |
| 5 | Ibrahim, Maha Saleh | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 118.02 | 300 | 35,405 | 1,295,687 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spangenberg, Anne | President, Fashion Lifestyle | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 116.02 | 4,063 | 471,389 | 9,333,693 | Form |
| 2 | Spring-Green, Robin | President, Hoka | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 113.78 | 347 | 39,482 | 4,831,213 | Form |
| 3 | Shanahan, Lauri M | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 114.84 | 4,682 | 537,681 | 2,873,986 | Form | |
| 4 | Ogbechie, Angela | Chief Supply Chain Officer | Direct | Sell | 11032025 | 81.45 | 1,460 | 118,910 | 2,770,768 | Form |
| 5 | Ibrahim, Maha Saleh | Direct | Sell | 9082025 | 118.02 | 300 | 35,405 | 1,295,687 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 10, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semper Augustus Investments Group LLC | $66.2 Mil | 7.9% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $20.4 Mil | 5.1% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Vienna Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne S.A. Vienna Insurance Group | $11.8 Mil | 4.5% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Shapiro Capital Management LLC | $53.4 Mil | 3.3% | 50 | TRIM -25.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nixon Capital, LLC | $17.4 Mil | 4.6% | 29 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd | $12.2 Mil | 1.3% | 43 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Wealth High Governance Capital Ltda | $6.3 Mil | 1.2% | 46 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Shapiro Capital Management LLC | $53.4 Mil | 3.3% | 50 | TRIM -25.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semper Augustus Investments Group LLC | $66.2 Mil | 7.9% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Shapiro Capital Management LLC | $53.4 Mil | 3.3% | 50 | TRIM -25.1% | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $20.4 Mil | 5.1% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Vienna Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne S.A. Vienna Insurance Group | $11.8 Mil | 4.5% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
DECK Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Deckers is navigating a growth slowdown by prioritizing brand health and profitability, evidenced by its five-year high 58.9% gross margin. Conviction is constructive, not high, as the thesis hinges on a specific, dated catalyst: a new HOKA product cycle launching in January 2027, which management expects will re-accelerate growth. The recent 26.3% rise in accounts receivable requires close monitoring.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Branded Consumer GoodsVolume of units sold × Average Selling Price (ASP) Gross Margin, driven by the mix of full-price vs. promotional sales, channel mix (DTC vs. wholesale), and input/freight costs.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a strategic pause, not a structural break, in the HOKA growth story.
- Management expects HOKA revenue to re-accelerate in Q4 FY2027, driven by new product launches.
- Gross margin is at a five-year peak of 58.9%, showing strong pricing power.
- Operating margin guidance for FY27 was raised to approximately 23%.
- Share count has been reduced by 13.5% over the last three years through buybacks.
PRIMARY RISK
Recent product missteps and intense competition have structurally impaired HOKA's growth engine, and the full-price strategy is unsustainable in a promotional market. The recent slowdown to 6.8% growth is the new normal.
- HOKA revenue growth decelerated to 6.8% in the latest quarter from 8% prior.
- Management acknowledged some 2026 product updates 'did not resonate as well'.
- Full-year FY27 sales guidance was lowered, implying a continued slowdown.
- Accounts receivable grew 26.3% while revenue grew only 3.5% in the latest quarter.
- The market is increasingly promotional, especially in the athletic category.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| HOKA Brand Revenue Growth | +6.8% year-over-year for Q2 FY2027 - Decelerating | HOKA's growth has been decelerating. Management noted strong performance in wholesale and international markets, but U.S. direct-to-consumer (DTC) performance was pressured by a highly promotional environment. The company also acknowledged that some product updates in calendar year 2026 "did not resonate as well" with consumers, according to the October 2026 earnings call. |
| UGG Brand Revenue Growth | +3.5% year-over-year for Q2 FY2027 - Decelerating | UGG's growth has slowed to low-single-digits. Management stated on the October 2026 earnings call that they believe consumers are delaying purchases until closer to the time of immediate need. |
| Trailing-Twelve-Month Gross Margin | 58.9% (TTM ended 9/30/2026) | Measures the profitability of goods sold. The current level is at a five-year peak, indicating strong pricing power and cost management. |
| Trailing-Twelve-Month Operating Margin | 23.6% (TTM ended 9/30/2026) | Measures overall operational efficiency and profitability. The current level is near a five-year peak, demonstrating strong cost control and brand profitability. |
| Inventory Growth vs. Revenue Growth Divergence | -0.5 percentage points (Quarter ended 9/30/2026) | A negative divergence (inventory growing slower than revenue) indicates disciplined inventory management and a healthy supply/demand balance, reducing the risk of future markdowns. |
HOKA Product Innovation vs. Market Saturation
BULL VIEW
The HOKA slowdown is a temporary product-cycle issue. A robust pipeline, starting with the Bondi 10 in January, will re-ignite growth and prove the brand's long-term runway in a large market.
CORE TENSION
Can the new HOKA product cycle, starting January 2027, overcome the brand's growth deceleration to 6.8% amid a highly promotional athletic market?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bears, as growth has demonstrably slowed and guidance was cut. However, the bull case has a clear, dated catalyst path just two months away.
BEAR VIEW
HOKA has hit a wall. After years of hypergrowth, the brand is facing tougher competition and consumer fatigue with recent updates. The market is saturated, and new products will deliver only marginal gains.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
12/16/2026 | U.S. Consumer and Promotional Headwinds Watch: Nike's commentary on U.S. consumer behavior, inventory levels, and the promotional landscape in its earnings report. |
1/26/2027 | VF Corp Earnings Report Watch: Peer VF (VFC) is scheduled to report earnings, providing a sector update ahead of Deckers' own report. |
1/27/2027 | HOKA Brand Growth Deceleration Watch: HOKA Q3 revenue growth versus the 'low to mid-single digits' guide in the next earnings report. |
1/27/2027 | Persistent European Logistics Disruption Watch: Commentary on European 3PL service levels and any quantified revenue impact in the Q3 earnings report. |
1/27/2027 | Accounts Receivable Balance Sheet Risk Watch: The accounts receivable growth rate versus revenue growth in the next earnings report's balance sheet data. |
1/27/2027 | Next Earnings Report Watch: Deckers Outdoor is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings, providing an update on brand growth and guidance. |
January | HOKA a recently discussed product 10 Launch Watch: HOKA brand to launch the a recently discussed product 10, an update to a core franchise, introducing an upgraded dual-density supercritical foam midsole. |
January | HOKA Fly Pace Launch Watch: HOKA brand to launch Fly Pace at a $115 price point, intended to attract new consumers to the brand. |
April | HOKA Mach Pro Launch Watch: HOKA brand to launch Mach Pro, featuring a new aesthetic and eTPU midsole for its performance road franchise. |
June | HOKA a recently discussed product Ultra X Launch Watch: HOKA brand to launch a recently discussed product Ultra X at a $325 price point, featuring a triple-density eTPU midsole. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-22 | Q2 FY27 Earnings and Guidance Cut Details: The company reported Q2 results and lowered its full-year 2027 Net Sales guidance by -2.9%, though it raised guidance for Gross Margin, Operating Margin, and EPS. | -5.1% $85.49 -> $81.09 |
2026-07-23 | Q1 FY27 Earnings Report Details: The company reported first quarter fiscal 2027 results. The stock had a two-day negative reaction of -6.0% around the earnings call. | -6.3% $102.47 -> $96.04 |
2026-05-21 | Q4 FY26 Earnings Report Details: The company reported its fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2026 financial results. The stock had a two-day positive reaction of 9.0% around the earnings call. | +8.6% $98.24 -> $106.67 |
2026-05-20 | Increased Share Repurchase Authorization Details: The Board of Directors approved an additional authorization of $3,500,000 to repurchase shares of common stock. | +8.9% $94.27 -> $102.62 |
Fall Marketing Campaigns Launched Details: The company announced the return of its 'UGG Season' fall celebration and new performance and lifestyle footwear from Teva's Fall 2026 collection, including the new Trailpeak trail running shoe. | - |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: DECK trades at roughly 32% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (3.2x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
NKE - Nike
Global Scale LeaderNike offers exposure to the global athletic market at 8.2 times the scale of Deckers. Its vast resources and distribution provide a different risk profile compared to Deckers' concentrated two-brand strategy.
CROX - a business partner
Similar Margin Profilea business partner provides a similar best-in-class gross margin profile (59.4%) built on a distinct, iconic footwear brand. It offers an alternative way to invest in a high-margin, brand-driven consumer story.
A high-quality, high-margin, two-brand growth story (HOKA and UGG) navigating a near-term consumer and competitive slowdown by prioritizing long-term brand health over short-term, promotion-driven sales.
Deckers is fundamentally a portfolio of two powerful, premium brands, HOKA and UGG, which generate nearly all of its profit at industry-leading margins. The company is currently facing decelerating growth due to a more promotional environment and cautious consumers, particularly in the US. Management's strategy is to maintain full-price discipline, which pressures near-term sales but protects brand equity and profitability. The investment thesis hinges on HOKA's ability to re-accelerate growth through a new product pipeline in 2027 and UGG's continued brand heat through the holiday season.
HOKA revenue growth re-accelerating in Q4 FY2027 driven by new product launches like a recently discussed product. Strong UGG performance through the holiday season. Continued gross and operating margin strength despite the promotional environment. Strong international growth.
Continued deceleration in HOKA and UGG revenue growth. Failure of the new HOKA product pipeline to resonate with consumers. A need to resort to promotions to clear inventory, leading to margin compression.
Performance of the 'Other Brands' segment, which is being strategically de-emphasized.
Repricing Catalyst
The upcoming Q4 FY2027 results, which will provide the first clear signal on whether HOKA's new product pipeline can successfully re-accelerate growth, as implied by company guidance.
UGG
$2.8B TTM (50% of Total) · 52% MarginWhat It Is
The UGG brand is a consumer-focused fashion lifestyle line of premium footwear, apparel, and accessories known for comfort and iconic designs. Products are sold globally to consumers through DTC channels and to wholesale partners like fashion lifestyle retailers and department stores.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and retailers pay for UGG products. The brand is iconic and recognized for its premium materials and comfort, driving high consumer brand loyalty and demand for its year-round product offerings that appeal to a broad demographic.
Competition
HOKA
$2.6B TTM (48% of Total) · 62% MarginWhat It Is
The HOKA brand sells a premium line of year-round performance and lifestyle footwear, apparel, and accessories. Originally for ultra-runners, it now appeals to a broad range of athletes and consumers. Products are sold globally through DTC channels and wholesale partners, including specialty, outdoor, and sporting goods retailers.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and retailers pay for HOKA products. They are chosen for their leading performance innovation, offering enhanced cushioning and inherent stability with minimal weight, which appeals to both high-performance athletes and everyday users.
Competition
Other Brands
$138M TTM (2% of Total) · 24% MarginWhat It Is
This segment consists primarily of the Teva brand, which sells footwear for a range of outdoor pursuits, including sandals, shoes, and boots. It also includes the financial results from the phased-out Koolaburra and AHNU brands, and the previously sold Sanuk brand.
Who Pays & How
Consumers and retailers (outdoor, sporting goods, national chains) pay for Teva products. The brand's messaging emphasizes its outdoor-adventure heritage.
Competition
Deckers Outdoor — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Footwear Resources |
| Footwear News |
| Sneaker News |
| Sole Collector |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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