Builders FirstSource (BLDR)
Market Price (9/2/2026): $62.89 | Market Cap: $6.8 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
Builders FirstSource (BLDR)
Market Price (9/2/2026): $62.89Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.5% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.7 Bil Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, and Energy Efficient Building Materials. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -100%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 77% Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 66x Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.8% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.8% Key risksBLDR key risks include [1] its dependence on the highly cyclical homebuilding industry, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 9.5% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.7 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, and Energy Efficient Building Materials. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -100%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -125% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 77% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 66x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.0%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.8% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.8% |
| Key risksBLDR key risks include [1] its dependence on the highly cyclical homebuilding industry, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 9/1/2026
Builders FirstSource (BLDR) stock has lost about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Builders FirstSource reported a significant financial underperformance in fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026, and subsequently lowered its full-year guidance. Net sales decreased 8.8% year-over-year to $3.9 billion, and the company posted a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $(0.04), a notable decline from $1.66 in the prior-year period. Adjusted EPS of $1.17 missed consensus estimates of $1.25. Furthermore, Adjusted EBITDA dropped 34.9% to $329.3 million, and free cash flow plummeted 87% to just $32.2 million compared to the prior year. Following these results, the company cut its fiscal year 2026 net sales guidance to a range of $14.0 billion to $14.8 billion (from a previous range of $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion) and reduced its Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion (from $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion).
2. The company faced a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by persistent weakness in the housing market. This was primarily driven by a lower housing starts environment, with single-family construction starts projected to be down mid- to high-single digits and multi-family starts down mid-single digits within the company's geographies for fiscal 2026. New-home sales notably fell 10.5% in July 2026, indicating cooling buyer demand. Additionally, the value of a comparable housing start has decreased approximately 10% since 2019 due to a trend towards smaller and more value-engineered homes, impacting average selling prices and margins.
Show more
Builders FirstSource (BLDR) stock has lost about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Builders FirstSource reported a significant financial underperformance in fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026, and subsequently lowered its full-year guidance. Net sales decreased 8.8% year-over-year to $3.9 billion, and the company posted a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $(0.04), a notable decline from $1.66 in the prior-year period. Adjusted EPS of $1.17 missed consensus estimates of $1.25. Furthermore, Adjusted EBITDA dropped 34.9% to $329.3 million, and free cash flow plummeted 87% to just $32.2 million compared to the prior year. Following these results, the company cut its fiscal year 2026 net sales guidance to a range of $14.0 billion to $14.8 billion (from a previous range of $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion) and reduced its Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion (from $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion).
2. The company faced a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by persistent weakness in the housing market. This was primarily driven by a lower housing starts environment, with single-family construction starts projected to be down mid- to high-single digits and multi-family starts down mid-single digits within the company's geographies for fiscal 2026. New-home sales notably fell 10.5% in July 2026, indicating cooling buyer demand. Additionally, the value of a comparable housing start has decreased approximately 10% since 2019 due to a trend towards smaller and more value-engineered homes, impacting average selling prices and margins.
Show more
Updated on 9/1/2026
Builders FirstSource (BLDR) stock has lost about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Builders FirstSource reported a significant financial underperformance in fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026, and subsequently lowered its full-year guidance. Net sales decreased 8.8% year-over-year to $3.9 billion, and the company posted a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $(0.04), a notable decline from $1.66 in the prior-year period. Adjusted EPS of $1.17 missed consensus estimates of $1.25. Furthermore, Adjusted EBITDA dropped 34.9% to $329.3 million, and free cash flow plummeted 87% to just $32.2 million compared to the prior year. Following these results, the company cut its fiscal year 2026 net sales guidance to a range of $14.0 billion to $14.8 billion (from a previous range of $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion) and reduced its Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion (from $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion).
2. The company faced a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by persistent weakness in the housing market. This was primarily driven by a lower housing starts environment, with single-family construction starts projected to be down mid- to high-single digits and multi-family starts down mid-single digits within the company's geographies for fiscal 2026. New-home sales notably fell 10.5% in July 2026, indicating cooling buyer demand. Additionally, the value of a comparable housing start has decreased approximately 10% since 2019 due to a trend towards smaller and more value-engineered homes, impacting average selling prices and margins.
3. Elevated mortgage rates and ongoing affordability constraints continued to dampen housing demand. Average 30-year mortgage rates remained high, hovering around 6.5% in June and 6.65% for the week ending August 24, 2026. These elevated borrowing costs contributed to a median monthly mortgage payment of $2,600, up 0.6% year-over-year, which continued to hurt affordability and stunt demand across the housing market, thereby directly impacting Builders FirstSource's business volumes.
4. Builders FirstSource's net leverage increased, leading to a significant reduction in capital deployment for shareholder returns. As of June 30, 2026, the company's net debt to LTM Adjusted EBITDA ratio rose to 3.6x, compared to 2.3x in the prior-year period. This increased leverage, combined with financial pressures, caused the company to significantly reduce its share repurchases to just $3.5 million in fiscal Q2 2026, a sharp decline from $303 million in fiscal Q1 2026. Management indicated a prioritization of balance sheet integrity until leverage returns towards 2.5x, effectively pausing a key mechanism for shareholder value creation.
Show less
Builders FirstSource (BLDR) stock has lost about 20% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Builders FirstSource reported a significant financial underperformance in fiscal Q2 2026, which ended on June 30, 2026, and subsequently lowered its full-year guidance. Net sales decreased 8.8% year-over-year to $3.9 billion, and the company posted a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $(0.04), a notable decline from $1.66 in the prior-year period. Adjusted EPS of $1.17 missed consensus estimates of $1.25. Furthermore, Adjusted EBITDA dropped 34.9% to $329.3 million, and free cash flow plummeted 87% to just $32.2 million compared to the prior year. Following these results, the company cut its fiscal year 2026 net sales guidance to a range of $14.0 billion to $14.8 billion (from a previous range of $14.6 billion to $15.6 billion) and reduced its Adjusted EBITDA outlook to $1.0 billion to $1.2 billion (from $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion).
2. The company faced a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by persistent weakness in the housing market. This was primarily driven by a lower housing starts environment, with single-family construction starts projected to be down mid- to high-single digits and multi-family starts down mid-single digits within the company's geographies for fiscal 2026. New-home sales notably fell 10.5% in July 2026, indicating cooling buyer demand. Additionally, the value of a comparable housing start has decreased approximately 10% since 2019 due to a trend towards smaller and more value-engineered homes, impacting average selling prices and margins.
3. Elevated mortgage rates and ongoing affordability constraints continued to dampen housing demand. Average 30-year mortgage rates remained high, hovering around 6.5% in June and 6.65% for the week ending August 24, 2026. These elevated borrowing costs contributed to a median monthly mortgage payment of $2,600, up 0.6% year-over-year, which continued to hurt affordability and stunt demand across the housing market, thereby directly impacting Builders FirstSource's business volumes.
4. Builders FirstSource's net leverage increased, leading to a significant reduction in capital deployment for shareholder returns. As of June 30, 2026, the company's net debt to LTM Adjusted EBITDA ratio rose to 3.6x, compared to 2.3x in the prior-year period. This increased leverage, combined with financial pressures, caused the company to significantly reduce its share repurchases to just $3.5 million in fiscal Q2 2026, a sharp decline from $303 million in fiscal Q1 2026. Management indicated a prioritization of balance sheet integrity until leverage returns towards 2.5x, effectively pausing a key mechanism for shareholder value creation.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.7% change in BLDR stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -63.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 76.26 | 62.79 | -17.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,820 | 14,449 | -2.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.0% | 0.7% | -63.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.7 | 65.9 | 129.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 110 | 108 | 2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLDR | -17.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.7% | 40.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | -0.2% | 56.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -39.8% change in BLDR stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -75.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 104.29 | 62.79 | -39.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15,191 | 14,449 | -4.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.9% | 0.7% | -75.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.5 | 65.9 | 148.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 111 | 108 | 2.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -39.8% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLDR | -39.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.4% | 48.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | -2.2% | 57.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -54.7% change in BLDR stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -85.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 138.68 | 62.79 | -54.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15,944 | 14,449 | -9.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.7% | 0.7% | -85.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.3 | 65.9 | 223.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 111 | 108 | 3.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -54.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLDR | -54.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.1% | 42.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 14.8% | 56.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -56.7% change in BLDR stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -92.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 145.04 | 62.79 | -56.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 18,531 | 14,449 | -22.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.0% | 0.7% | -92.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.9 | 65.9 | 565.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 127 | 108 | 18.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -56.7% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BLDR | -56.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.1% | 45.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 66.2% | 55.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BLDR Return | 110% | -24% | 157% | -14% | -28% | -35% | 63% |
| Peers Return | 55% | -11% | 62% | 9% | 11% | 14% | 205% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BLDR Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 83% | 58% | 33% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 43% | 63% | 55% | 53% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BLDR Max Drawdown | -23% | -42% | -30% | -37% | -45% | -49% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -39% | -23% | -22% | -22% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WTS, WMS, UFPI, GFF, TT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/1/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BLDR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -40.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 225 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -61.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 162.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.3% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Builders FirstSource's stock fell -27.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 37.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | BLDR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -27.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -40.1% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 225 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -61.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 162.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 147 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.3% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -54.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.1% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 384 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -28.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 132 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -58.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 140.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -46.8% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 87.9% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 598 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -89.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 886.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 249 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -33.3% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.0% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2877 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Builders FirstSource's stock fell -27.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 37.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Builders FirstSource (BLDR)
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Builders FirstSource (BLDR) is a prominent U.S. manufacturer and supplier of a broad range of building materials, manufactured components, and construction services. The company acts as an integrated partner for various construction projects, primarily within the residential sector, offering solutions from initial design to final installation.
Its comprehensive product lineup includes foundational items like lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board, as well as sophisticated manufactured components such as wood and steel trusses, wall panels, and engineered wood products. BLDR further supplies windows, doors, interior and exterior trims, gypsum, roofing, insulation, siding, and even cabinets. Beyond materials, the company provides crucial services including turn-key framing, shell construction, design assistance, and professional installation, streamlining the building process for its clients.
Builders FirstSource primarily serves professional homebuilders, sub-contractors, and remodelers throughout the United States. While focusing on these professional clients, it also extends its offerings to individual consumers, establishing itself as a vital supplier and service provider for a wide array of residential and light commercial construction and renovation needs across the U.S. market.
```AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are brief analogies to describe Builders FirstSource (BLDR):
- They're like the Home Depot or Lowe's for professional homebuilders and contractors, supplying a vast array of materials and components.
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- Lumber and Lumber Sheet Goods: Supplies dimensional lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board products used in on-site house framing.
- Manufactured Components: Produces wood floor and roof trusses, steel roof trusses, wall panels, stairs, and engineered wood products.
- Windows and Doors: Provides interior and exterior door units and windows.
- Interior and Exterior Trims and Custom Products: Offers a range of trim products and custom items under the Synboard brand.
- Gypsum, Roofing, and Insulation Products: Sells wallboards, ceilings, joint treatments, finishes, roofing materials, and insulation products.
- Siding, Metal, and Concrete Products: Distributes vinyl, composite, wood siding, exterior trims, metal studs, and cement products.
- Other Building Products: Offers additional building materials such as cabinets and hardware.
- Turn-key Framing and Shell Construction Services: Provides comprehensive services for complete framing and shell construction.
- Design Assistance Services: Offers professional guidance and support for project design.
- Professional Installation Services: Delivers expert installation for various building materials and components.
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Builders FirstSource (BLDR) primarily sells to other companies. Its major customers include:
- Professional homebuilders
- Sub-contractors
- Remodelers
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- Jeld-Wen (JELD)
- Owens Corning (OC)
- James Hardie (JHX)
- Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)
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Peter Jackson, President & Chief Executive Officer
Peter Jackson was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Builders FirstSource, effective November 6, 2024. Prior to this role, he served as the company's Chief Financial Officer from 2016 to 2024, where he played a key role in developing and executing the company's growth strategy, overseeing capital allocation, mergers and acquisitions (M&A), leading digital transformation, and architecting the business intelligence platform. Mr. Jackson has nearly 30 years of leadership experience, with 17 years in the building products industry, including seven years with Builders FirstSource. Before joining Builders FirstSource, he held various leadership roles at Lennox International, Inc., including Global Refrigeration Segment CFO, and also worked with SPX Corporation, General Electric, and Gerber Scientific. He began his career in public accounting.Pete Beckmann, Chief Financial Officer
Pete Beckmann serves as the Chief Financial Officer of Builders FirstSource, a position he assumed, succeeding Peter Jackson, effective November 6, 2024. In this role, he oversees accounting and controls, financial planning and analysis, investor relations, treasury, tax, and mergers and acquisitions. Before becoming CFO, Mr. Beckmann was the Senior Vice President of Financial Planning & Analysis, providing strategic financial support across the enterprise. He possesses over 25 years of experience with Builders FirstSource and its legacy companies, having held various leadership roles in finance and serving as a key financial partner to operations.Steve Herron, Chief Operating Officer
Steve Herron is the Chief Operating Officer of Builders FirstSource. In this capacity, he is responsible for overseeing the performance and day-to-day operational and administrative functions of the company.Timothy Johnson, Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Timothy Johnson holds the titles of Executive Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary for Builders FirstSource, having joined the company in January 2021. He is responsible for the company's legal, compliance, ethics, corporate governance, mergers and acquisitions, real estate, intellectual property, litigation, risk management, and human resources functions. Mr. Johnson has over 15 years of private and corporate legal experience. Prior to the merger of Builders FirstSource and BMC, he held the same executive leadership roles at BMC Stock Holdings, Inc. His previous experience includes serving as Senior Vice President and General Counsel of Ply Gem, a prominent manufacturer of building products. He also served as Vice President and Regional Counsel of Arysta LifeScience and worked as an attorney for the international law firms Hunton Andrews Kurth and Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati.Johnny Cope, President, Commercial
Johnny Cope is the President, Commercial for Builders FirstSource. He is responsible for all sales and national account customer initiatives, marketing, customer segment strategy, and innovation, aiming to drive sales across all lines of business and strengthen partnerships. Mr. Cope brings nearly three decades of industry experience to his role, having joined Builders FirstSource in June 2024 from James Hardie, where he served as the Senior Vice President of North American Sales.AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key risks to the business of Builders FirstSource (BLDR):
- Cyclicality of the Housing Market and Construction Industry: Builders FirstSource's financial performance is inherently tied to the health of the U.S. residential construction market, including new home construction and remodeling activities. The company is highly susceptible to economic downturns, fluctuations in interest rates, affordability concerns, and changes in consumer confidence, which directly impact housing starts and demand for building materials and services. Projections for both single-family and multi-family housing starts directly reflect pressure on the company's core segments.
- Volatility in Raw Material and Commodity Prices: As a major manufacturer and supplier of building materials such as lumber, wood products, steel, and gypsum, Builders FirstSource is significantly exposed to the volatility of commodity prices. Fluctuations in these prices, particularly periods of commodity deflation, can severely impact the company's cost of goods sold, gross margins, and overall profitability.
- Intense Market Competition and Operational Challenges: The building materials and construction services industry is highly competitive. Builders FirstSource faces risks from intense competition, including potential consolidation among homebuilders and subcontractors, which could increase competition for business. Additionally, the company's growth strategies, including strategic acquisitions and efforts to implement operational excellence initiatives, present operational risks. Effective integration of acquired entities and managing labor costs and shortages are crucial for sustained growth and profitability.
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Builders FirstSource (BLDR) operates within several significant addressable markets across the United States for its main products and services:
- Lumber and Lumber Sheet Goods: The U.S. sawmill and wood market, which includes lumber, was valued at approximately USD 51.2 billion in 2024. Separately, the U.S. hardwood lumber market size is estimated to reach $6.1 billion by 2030.
- Manufactured Components (e.g., Trusses): The U.S. structural trusser manufacturing industry market size was valued at approximately USD 11.7 billion in 2023.
- Windows and Doors: The U.S. window and door market size was approximately USD 25.9 billion in 2024 and estimated at USD 27.71 billion in 2023.
- Gypsum and Drywall Products: The U.S. gypsum board market size was estimated at USD 15.6 billion in 2023. The US Drywall and Gypsum Board Market is expected to be valued at 6.2 billion USD in 2024.
- Roofing Products: The United States roofing market size was valued at USD 49.50 billion in 2024. Other estimates for the U.S. roofing market include USD 29.65 billion in 2024.
- Insulation Products: The U.S. insulation market size was valued at approximately USD 13.52 billion in 2024 and USD 12.51 billion in 2023. Another source indicates the U.S. insulation market size was USD 10.92 billion in 2025.
- Siding Products: The United States siding industry had an estimated revenue of USD 28.5 billion in 2024. The US siding market size was 18.7 billion USD in 2024.
- Overall Building Materials: The U.S. construction materials market was valued at approximately USD 145.0 billion in 2024.
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Builders FirstSource (BLDR) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies and market improvements:
- Recovery and Stabilization of the Housing Market: Despite recent challenges with declining single-family and multifamily housing starts, Builders FirstSource anticipates a market stabilization and eventual recovery. An improved housing market, driven by factors such as easing mortgage rates and more balanced new-home inventories, is expected to unlock demand and naturally increase sales of building materials and services. The repair and remodel (R&R) segment is also projected to see growth.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Market Expansion: The company has a demonstrated history of utilizing strategic mergers and acquisitions to expand its geographic footprint and diversify its product and service offerings. Acquisitions completed in 2024 and 2025, including those that broaden value-added and modular housing options, are anticipated to contribute to net sales growth.
- Growth in Value-Added Products and Services: Builders FirstSource is heavily investing in and prioritizing its value-added solutions, such as manufactured components (e.g., wood floor and roof trusses, wall panels), install services, and other specialized offerings. These solutions are considered key differentiators and drivers of organic growth, with investments in new facilities and plant expansions aimed at meeting escalating customer demand.
- Digital Transformation and Technology Adoption: Significant investment in digital platforms and technology is a core part of the company's strategy to enhance operational efficiency and improve the customer experience. The digital platform has seen substantial year-over-year increases in processed quotes, indicating growing adoption and the potential for incremental sales by streamlining the building process for contractors and builders.
- Expansion into Modular Housing: Builders FirstSource is actively expanding its prefabricated component strategy, including through acquisitions like Pleasant Valley Homes. This initiative aims to address critical industry challenges such as housing affordability and labor shortages by offering cost-competitive, factory-built housing options, representing an exciting new avenue for growth.
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Peer Outperformance in Building Products
BLDR has trailed 53% of its 32 Building Products peers over 5Y. Building Products ranks 11th of 23 industries in Industrials by median 5Y return.
Share of Building Products constituents that BLDR has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
11%
of 37 industry peers · -54.7% return
3Y
14%
of 35 industry peers · -57.8% return
5Y
47%
of 32 industry peers · 15.0% return
No Building Products peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten BLDR by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Building Products is BLDR's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 10.0% | 101.1% | 182.9% | CDNL 2670% · FIX 1977% · STRL 1844% |
| Marine Transportation | 4 | 59.7% | 55.5% | 148.9% | MATX 183% · KEX 160% · SFL 138% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 7.6% | 52.3% | 109.0% | CAT 301% · ALSN 242% · WAB 218% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 55 | -0.5% | 56.8% | 73.8% | ATI 1015% · FTAI 845% · HWM 711% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -11.1% | 35.9% | 55.9% | UBER 82% · CAR 56% · LYFT -66% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 27.6% | 65.8% | 45.8% | FSTR 119% · CSX 60% · UNP 50% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 7.3% | 40.2% | 40.4% | CRS 1386% · PSIX 820% · GHM 572% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 33.4% | -2.7% | 30.0% | XPO 244% · R 241% · CVLG 194% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 0.3% | 27.6% | 29.6% | DXPE 517% · AIT 277% · WCC 194% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 11.2% | 28.6% | 24.5% | LIME 4550% · TH 345% · WLFC 343% |
| Building Products ← | 33 | -11.8% | 1.5% | 15.7% | LMB 492% · GFF 366% · PPIH 282% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 41 | 13.1% | 43.2% | 13.8% | POWL 2084% · BE 870% · ELVA 820% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -8.9% | -18.6% | -2.4% | HURN 217% · CRAI 91% · GRNQ 75% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 4.1% | 8.7% | -6.7% | RCMT 708% · CSW 133% · CSL 69% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -10.6% | 16.3% | -12.0% | CECO 828% · ADUR 546% · NVRI 331% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 9.5% | -6.2% | -16.5% | BLBD 189% · DE 88% · GENC 60% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -30.6% | -11.9% | -26.0% | EXLS 52% · BR 15% · G -23% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 11.2% | 19.3% | -29.3% | PBI 178% · TILE 158% · HNI 49% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | -1.7% | -7.2% | -29.7% | LTM 2259% · UAL 124% · SKYW 101% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 21 | 5.7% | -23.4% | -39.8% | BBSI 84% · ADP 53% · KFY 29% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -12.3% | -27.5% | -39.9% | CHRW 83% · FDX 67% · EXPD 60% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -33.4% | 5.9% | -45.3% | CIX 119% · MG 82% · BCO 47% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -68.9% | -76.1% | -60.3% | JOBY -44% · ASLE -60% · UP -100% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
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Peer Comparisons
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 112.59 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.4 |
| Rev LTM | 4,728 |
| Op Inc LTM | 491 |
| FCF LTM | 450 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 446 |
| CFO LTM | 649 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 670 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 4.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Specialty building products and services | 4,068 | 3,907 | 4,080 | 4,311 | 3,776 |
| Lumber and lumber sheet goods | 3,876 | 4,269 | 4,276 | 8,085 | 8,430 |
| Windows, doors and millwork | 3,836 | 4,238 | 4,331 | 4,651 | 3,336 |
| Manufactured products | 3,410 | 3,986 | 4,410 | 5,679 | 4,352 |
| Total | 15,191 | 16,400 | 17,097 | 22,726 | 19,894 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $62.79 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 6.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/28/2005 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -57.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $75.64 | $91.06 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -17.0% | -31.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 58.6% | 50.4% |
| Downside Capture | 240.23 | 216.55 |
| Upside Capture | 150.12 | 80.76 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 39.1% | 41.7% |
BLDR Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.35 | 2.22 | 1.65 | 1.85 | 1.65 | 1.39 |
| Up Beta | 3.88 | 0.81 | 1.01 | 1.98 | 2.02 | 1.44 |
| Down Beta | 2.29 | 3.28 | 1.91 | 1.97 | 1.82 | 1.02 |
| Up Capture | 264% | 133% | 148% | 105% | 74% | 178% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 18 | 28 | 51 | 93 | 347 |
| Down Capture | 406% | 354% | 198% | 199% | 155% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 24 | 36 | 76 | 158 | 402 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BLDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLDR | -54.9% | 50.3% | -1.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.9% | 17.1% | 0.64 | 56.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.2% | 12.8% | 1.10 | 42.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.8% | 29.2% | 0.76 | 14.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 44.0% | 20.4% | 1.67 | -31.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 8.5% | 13.7% | 0.35 | 40.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.6% | 43.5% | -0.62 | 10.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BLDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLDR | 4.7% | 46.3% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.3% | 17.6% | 0.54 | 58.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.2% | 0.56 | 53.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.7% | 18.7% | 0.81 | 9.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.0% | 19.5% | 0.44 | -0.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.0% | 18.9% | -0.00 | 49.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.5% | 52.6% | 0.38 | 22.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BLDR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BLDR | 17.6% | 48.2% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.3% | 20.0% | 0.58 | 60.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 56.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.3% | 0.60 | 8.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 18.1% | 0.35 | 14.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 50.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.2% | 66.1% | 1.03 | 18.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/1/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -2.6% | 12.0% | -0.8% |
| 4/30/2026 | -5.1% | -4.0% | -8.5% |
| 2/17/2026 | -0.1% | -6.5% | -21.0% |
| 10/30/2025 | -3.1% | -3.2% | -1.8% |
| 7/31/2025 | 0.8% | 3.7% | 11.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | -6.4% | -11.4% | -10.0% |
| 2/20/2025 | -0.3% | -1.9% | -11.1% |
| 11/5/2024 | 5.0% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 16 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 6.8% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -5.7% | -10.0% |
| Max Positive | 12.9% | 20.4% | 24.7% |
| Max Negative | -19.0% | -16.7% | -25.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -2.6% | 12.0% | -0.8% |
| 4/30/2026 | -5.1% | -4.0% | -8.5% |
| 2/17/2026 | -0.1% | -6.5% | -21.0% |
| 10/30/2025 | -3.1% | -3.2% | -1.8% |
| 7/31/2025 | 0.8% | 3.7% | 11.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | -6.4% | -11.4% | -10.0% |
| 2/20/2025 | -0.3% | -1.9% | -11.1% |
| 11/5/2024 | 5.0% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| 8/6/2024 | 4.1% | 2.4% | 12.8% |
| 5/7/2024 | -19.0% | -16.7% | -25.3% |
| 2/22/2024 | 2.6% | 5.2% | 15.0% |
| 11/1/2023 | 8.2% | 16.2% | 23.6% |
| 8/2/2023 | 1.3% | 3.4% | -4.7% |
| 5/3/2023 | 12.9% | 20.4% | 21.7% |
| 2/28/2023 | 4.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% |
| 11/8/2022 | 5.2% | 8.7% | 13.1% |
| 8/1/2022 | 7.9% | 0.5% | -11.1% |
| 5/10/2022 | 0.6% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| 3/1/2022 | -1.8% | -8.7% | -3.5% |
| 11/4/2021 | 8.5% | 11.1% | 18.0% |
| 8/5/2021 | 3.0% | 9.3% | 18.8% |
| 5/6/2021 | 6.0% | -4.9% | -13.0% |
| 2/26/2021 | 6.5% | 4.2% | 14.8% |
| 10/29/2020 | 1.0% | 15.5% | 24.7% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 16 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.5% | 6.8% | 14.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.9% | -5.7% | -10.0% |
| Max Positive | 12.9% | 20.4% | 24.7% |
| Max Negative | -19.0% | -16.7% | -25.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/01/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/21/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/01/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/31/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Productivity savings | Reported | 50.00 Mil | 60.00 Mil | 70.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 60.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Sales | Reported | 14.00 Bil | 14.40 Bil | 14.80 Bil | -4.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 15.10 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Gross Profit | Calculated | 3.85 Bil | 4.03 Bil | 4.22 Bil | Rev x Gross Margin | |||
| 2026 Gross Profit margin | Reported | 27.5% | 28.0% | 28.5% | -0.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 28.25% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.00 Bil | 1.10 Bil | 1.20 Bil | -15.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.30 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin | Reported | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 8.55% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow | Reported | 400.00 Mil | 450.00 Mil | 500.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 450.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Productivity savings | Reported | 50.00 Mil | 60.00 Mil | 70.00 Mil | 14.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 52.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Depreciation and amortization expenses | Reported | 525.00 Mil | 550.00 Mil | 575.00 Mil | -4.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 575.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net Sales | Reported | 14.80 Bil | 15.30 Bil | 15.80 Bil | 0.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 15.25 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Gross Profit margin | Reported | 28.5% | 29.25% | 30.0% | -1.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 30.3% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.30 Bil | 1.50 Bil | 1.70 Bil | -9.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.65 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin | Reported | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | -1.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 10.85% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Interest expense | Reported | 270.00 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 275.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Effective tax rate | Reported | 20.0% | 21.0% | 22.0% | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 21.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 250.00 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 300.00 Mil | -15.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 325.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow | Reported | 500.00 Mil | -44.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 900.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Productivity savings | Reported | 50.00 Mil | 60.00 Mil | 70.00 Mil | 14.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 52.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Depreciation and amortization expenses | Reported | 525.00 Mil | 550.00 Mil | 575.00 Mil | -4.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 575.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net Sales | Reported | 14.80 Bil | 15.30 Bil | 15.80 Bil | 0.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 15.25 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Gross Profit margin | Reported | 28.5% | 29.25% | 30.0% | -1.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 30.3% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.30 Bil | 1.50 Bil | 1.70 Bil | -9.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 1.65 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA margin | Reported | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | -1.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 10.85% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Interest expense | Reported | 270.00 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 275.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Effective tax rate | Reported | 20.0% | 21.0% | 22.0% | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 21.0% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | Reported | 250.00 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 300.00 Mil | -15.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 325.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow | Reported | 500.00 Mil | -44.4% | Lower New | Guidance: 900.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Productivity savings | Reported | 45.00 Mil | 52.50 Mil | 60.00 Mil | -4.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 55.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Depreciation and amortization expenses | Reported | 550.00 Mil | 575.00 Mil | 600.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Net Sales | Reported | 15.10 Bil | 15.25 Bil | 15.40 Bil | 0.3% | Raised | Guidance: 15.20 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Gross Profit | Calculated | 4.55 Bil | 4.62 Bil | 4.70 Bil | Rev x Gross Margin | |||
| 2025 Gross Profit margin | Reported | 30.1% | 30.3% | 30.5% | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 29.75% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 1.62 Bil | 1.65 Bil | 1.68 Bil | 3.1% | Raised | Guidance: 1.60 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA margin | Reported | 10.6% | 10.85% | 11.1% | 0.4% | Raised | Guidance: 10.5% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Interest expense | Reported | 270.00 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 275.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Effective tax rate | Reported | 20.0% | 21.0% | 22.0% | -3.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 24.0% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Capital expenditures | Reported | 300.00 Mil | 325.00 Mil | 350.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 325.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Free cash flow | Reported | 800.00 Mil | 900.00 Mil | 1.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 900.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/21/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rush, David E | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 78.17 | 5,000 | 390,850 | 9,558,940 | Form | |
| 2 | Levy, Paul S | Direct | Buy | 3162026 | 87.73 | 50,000 | 4,386,500 | 151,526,466 | Form | |
| 3 | Johnson, Timothy D | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8262025 | 144.85 | 1,250 | 181,062 | 10,649,517 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rush, David E | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 78.17 | 5,000 | 390,850 | 9,558,940 | Form | |
| 2 | Levy, Paul S | Direct | Buy | 3162026 | 87.73 | 50,000 | 4,386,500 | 151,526,466 | Form | |
| 3 | Johnson, Timothy D | EVP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8262025 | 144.85 | 1,250 | 181,062 | 10,649,517 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 2, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coliseum Capital Management, LLC | $172.3 Mil | 14.1% | 13 | ADD +168.1% | 13F |
| Lodge Hill Capital, LLC | $27.4 Mil | 5.3% | 22 | ADD +9.9% | 13F |
| Brave Warrior Advisors, LLC | $195.3 Mil | 4.8% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Woodson Capital Management, LP | $16.5 Mil | 2.7% | 28 | ADD +40.8% | 13F |
| Semper Augustus Investments Group LLC | $18.8 Mil | 2.2% | 44 | New | 13F |
| L1 Capital Pty Ltd | $24.1 Mil | 0.9% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Loews Corp | $60.9 Mil | 0.5% | 25 | ADD +164.3% | 13F |
| Atlas FRM LLC | $6.3 Mil | 0.4% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | $7.8 Mil | 0.3% | 39 | ADD +40.4% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L1 Capital Pty Ltd | $24.1 Mil | 0.9% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Semper Augustus Investments Group LLC | $18.8 Mil | 2.2% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Atlas FRM LLC | $6.3 Mil | 0.4% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Coliseum Capital Management, LLC | $172.3 Mil | 14.1% | 13 | ADD +168.1% | 13F |
| Loews Corp | $60.9 Mil | 0.5% | 25 | ADD +164.3% | 13F |
| Woodson Capital Management, LP | $16.5 Mil | 2.7% | 28 | ADD +40.8% | 13F |
| Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | $7.8 Mil | 0.3% | 39 | ADD +40.4% | 13F |
| Lodge Hill Capital, LLC | $27.4 Mil | 5.3% | 22 | ADD +9.9% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brave Warrior Advisors, LLC | $195.3 Mil | 4.8% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Coliseum Capital Management, LLC | $172.3 Mil | 14.1% | 13 | ADD +168.1% | 13F |
| Loews Corp | $60.9 Mil | 0.5% | 25 | ADD +164.3% | 13F |
| Lodge Hill Capital, LLC | $27.4 Mil | 5.3% | 22 | ADD +9.9% | 13F |
| L1 Capital Pty Ltd | $24.1 Mil | 0.9% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Semper Augustus Investments Group LLC | $18.8 Mil | 2.2% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Woodson Capital Management, LP | $16.5 Mil | 2.7% | 28 | ADD +40.8% | 13F |
| Turtle Creek Asset Management Inc. | $7.8 Mil | 0.3% | 39 | ADD +40.4% | 13F |
| Atlas FRM LLC | $6.3 Mil | 0.4% | 41 | New | 13F |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 9/1/2026