Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $149.35 | Market Cap: $11.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $149.35Market Cap: $11.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.0% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -7.3% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Wastewater Management, Show more. |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 25%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 40% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Wastewater Management, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.0% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -25%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -7.3% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WMS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for the movement of Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) stock from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Fiscal Second Quarter 2026 Earnings and Raised Guidance. Advanced Drainage Systems reported robust fiscal second-quarter 2026 results on November 6, 2025, significantly beating analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company reported $1.97 EPS against a consensus of $1.70-$1.64, and revenue of $850.4 million, exceeding estimates of $797.5 million-$802.54 million. Additionally, the company lifted its full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance. This positive earnings surprise and optimistic outlook led to a substantial surge in the stock price on November 6, 2025.
2. Strategic Acquisition of National Diversified Sales. On September 23, 2025, Advanced Drainage Systems announced the acquisition of National Diversified Sales (NDS) for approximately $1 billion. This strategic move was projected to enhance WMS's product offerings, expand its market reach into new segments, and be immediately accretive to adjusted earnings per share in the first year. The news caused an initial jump in the stock price.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WMS Return | 117% | 63% | -40% | 72% | -17% | 32% | 302% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 31% | -13% | 19% | 12% | -13% | 54% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WMS Win Rate | 83% | 67% | 42% | 67% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 61% | 57% | 32% | 45% | 68% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WMS Max Drawdown | -39% | -4% | -41% | -7% | -18% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -5% | -28% | -6% | -22% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ATR, NCL, TT, JCI, CARR. See WMS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WMS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 325 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 136 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -29.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 191 days | 120 days |
Compare to ATR, NCL, TT, JCI, CARR
In The Past
Advanced Drainage Systems's stock fell -50.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2022. A -50.3% loss requires a 101.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WMS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 06302025 | WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 32.6% | 32.6% | -3.5% |
| 12312024 | WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 32.1% | -16.2% |
| 05312023 | WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 26.4% | 79.5% | 0.0% |
| 11302022 | WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.2% | 25.1% | -21.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 06302025 | WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 32.6% | 32.6% | -3.5% |
| 12312024 | WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.8% | 32.1% | -16.2% |
| 05312023 | WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 26.4% | 79.5% | 0.0% |
| 11302022 | WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.2% | 25.1% | -21.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Advanced Drainage Systems
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 118.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 29.1 |
| Rev LTM | 12,357 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,449 |
| FCF LTM | 828 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 987 |
| CFO LTM | 1,173 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,308 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 29.1 |
| P/S | 2.7 |
| P/EBIT | 16.4 |
| P/E | 22.2 |
| P/CFO | 18.1 |
| Total Yield | 4.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.5% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -13.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 61.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -26.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -28.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -7.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2062025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11082024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5162024 | 10-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5182023 | 10-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5192022 | 10-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |