Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $73.9 | Market Cap: $67.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $73.9Market Cap: $67.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Rail Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 37% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 5.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.4 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, Sustainable Resource Management, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 37% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 37%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 5.5 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, Sustainable Resource Management, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -45%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Lower than Expected Q3 2025 Earnings and Revenue. Canadian Pacific Kansas City reported third-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $0.80, missing the consensus estimate of $0.81, and revenues of $2.62 billion, which was below analyst estimates of $2.71 billion. This earnings miss, announced on October 29, 2025, contributed to negative investor sentiment in the subsequent weeks.
2. Analyst Price Target Reductions. Following the Q3 earnings report, several analysts lowered their price targets for Canadian Pacific Kansas City. For instance, Evercore ISI reduced its price target from $88.00 to $87.00, and Royal Bank of Canada adjusted its target from $129.00 to $127.00, both on October 30, 2025. These adjustments reflected a more cautious outlook on the company's future performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CP Return | 37% | 5% | 5% | 7% | -8% | -0% | 48% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 19% | -9% | 10% | -7% | 7% | 50% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CP Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 50% | 37% | 52% | 45% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CP Max Drawdown | -29% | -6% | -7% | -6% | -9% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -6% | -20% | -12% | -11% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNP, NSC, CSX, CNI, CP.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 185 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 116 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -70.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 232.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1256 days | 1480 days |
Compare to UNP, NSC, CSX, CNI, CP
In The Past
Canadian Pacific Kansas City's stock fell -21.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/24/2021. A -21.8% loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Would You Still Hold Canadian Pacific Kansas City Stock If It Fell Another 30%? | Return | ||
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Is Canadian Pacific Railway A Better Pick Over CSX Corporation Stock? | March 31st, 2021 | ||
| Down 5% After Merger Announcement Can Canadian Pacific Railways Stock Rebound? | March 24th, 2021 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Canadian Pacific Kansas City
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 98.63 |
| Mkt Cap | 67.0 |
| Rev LTM | 15,029 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,556 |
| FCF LTM | 2,393 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,524 |
| CFO LTM | 5,489 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,086 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 37.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 38.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 36.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 67.0 |
| P/S | 4.7 |
| P/EBIT | 13.5 |
| P/E | 19.9 |
| P/CFO | 14.3 |
| Total Yield | 7.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 17.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -54.0% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7312024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |