Booking Holdings (BKNG)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $167.0 | Market Cap: $124.2 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Booking Holdings (BKNG)
Market Price (11/6/2026): $167.0Market Cap: $124.2 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, FCF Yield is 7.3% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 9.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.2 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 25 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.5x Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.3% Key risksBKNG key risks include [1] margin compression from Google's growing travel presence and evolving ad policies, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, FCF Yield is 7.3% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 9.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.2 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 25 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.5x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.3% |
| Key risksBKNG key risks include [1] margin compression from Google's growing travel presence and evolving ad policies, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Booking Holdings (BKNG) stock has lost about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Revenue Reduction due to FTC Matter.
Booking Holdings reported a $900 million reduction in reported revenue for fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026) related to a Federal Trade Commission (FTC) action concerning its Priceline subsidiary regarding alleged deceptive hotel advertising. This charge led to a reported 1% year-over-year revenue decline to $8.89 billion, despite gross bookings growing 10% and room nights increasing 7%.
2. Weakened Fiscal Q4 2026 Outlook Amidst Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Headwinds.
Management provided a cautious outlook for fiscal Q4 2026 (October-December), forecasting room night growth of only 1% to 3%, a significant deceleration from the 7% growth observed in fiscal Q3 2026. This softer guidance was attributed to a combination of factors, including weakened international travel demand, ongoing disruptions from the Middle East conflict, elevated airfares, and localized unrest in certain European cities.
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Booking Holdings (BKNG) stock has lost about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant Revenue Reduction due to FTC Matter.
Booking Holdings reported a $900 million reduction in reported revenue for fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026) related to a Federal Trade Commission (FTC) action concerning its Priceline subsidiary regarding alleged deceptive hotel advertising. This charge led to a reported 1% year-over-year revenue decline to $8.89 billion, despite gross bookings growing 10% and room nights increasing 7%.
2. Weakened Fiscal Q4 2026 Outlook Amidst Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Headwinds.
Management provided a cautious outlook for fiscal Q4 2026 (October-December), forecasting room night growth of only 1% to 3%, a significant deceleration from the 7% growth observed in fiscal Q3 2026. This softer guidance was attributed to a combination of factors, including weakened international travel demand, ongoing disruptions from the Middle East conflict, elevated airfares, and localized unrest in certain European cities.
3. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Cuts.
Several financial analysts adjusted their ratings and lowered price targets for Booking Holdings during the period. For instance, JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its price target from $248.00 to $205.00 on November 4, 2026, while Cantor Fitzgerald reduced its target from $220.00 to $170.00 in October 2026, and further to $150.00 in early November 2026. These revisions contributed to negative investor sentiment and selling pressure.
4. Insider Selling Exceeding $5 Million.
Peter J. Millones, Executive Vice President and General Counsel, sold 50,050 shares of Booking Holdings common stock on August 17, 2026, in multiple open-market transactions with a total value of approximately $10.4 million. This significant insider selling activity, exceeding the $5 million threshold, likely added to investor concerns.
5. Increased Regulatory Scrutiny and AI Disruption Fears.
Beyond the FTC revenue reduction, Booking Holdings faced additional regulatory pressure, including an EU court ruling that upheld the block on its eTraveli acquisition. Furthermore, concerns about potential disruption from advanced AI agents, such as Meta's Muse, raised fears that these technologies could disintermediate online travel agencies by directing travelers directly to hotel websites. Marketing costs also rose, pressured by changes in Google's search display including AI Overviews.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.3% change in BKNG stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -28.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 192.44 | 168.72 | -12.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,687 | 28,126 | 1.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.2% | 25.5% | 14.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.7 | 17.6 | -28.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 790 | 750 | 5.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKNG | -12.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.9% | 20.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.3% | 56.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 0.7% change in BKNG stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 167.53 | 168.72 | 0.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 27,687 | 28,126 | 1.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.2% | 25.5% | 14.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.5 | 17.6 | -18.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 790 | 750 | 5.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.7% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKNG | 0.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.3% | 18.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.4% | 52.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.2% change in BKNG stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -45.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 201.27 | 168.72 | -16.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 26,039 | 28,126 | 8.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.4% | 25.5% | 31.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.3 | 17.6 | -45.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 810 | 750 | 8.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKNG | -16.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.4% | 29.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.4% | 51.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 54.8% change in BKNG stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 109.00 | 168.72 | 54.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 19,341 | 28,126 | 45.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 23.0% | 25.5% | 10.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.4 | 17.6 | -21.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 917 | 750 | 22.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 54.8% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| BKNG | 54.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.3% | 46.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 58.2% | 54.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BKNG Return | 8% | -16% | 76% | 41% | 9% | -21% | 94% |
| Peers Return | 19% | -41% | 78% | 15% | 14% | -4% | 58% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BKNG Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 75% | 58% | 50% | 36% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 35% | 63% | 57% | 48% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BKNG Max Drawdown | -22% | -40% | -15% | -20% | -21% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -53% | -26% | -31% | -36% | -32% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: META, ABNB, EXPE, H, TRIP. See BKNG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BKNG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -18.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 23 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -17.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.7% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 41 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.0% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.0% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 255 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Booking Holdings's stock fell -18.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | BKNG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -33.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -41.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.8% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 32 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -21.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.8% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 10 days | 15 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -35.2% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.3% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 151.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 256 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Booking Holdings's stock fell -18.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Booking Holdings (BKNG)
Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is a global leader in online travel and restaurant reservation services. The company connects consumers with a vast network of travel service providers and restaurants, offering a comprehensive suite of tools to plan and book various aspects of their trips and dining experiences.
Its extensive portfolio includes well-known brands such as Booking.com and Agoda for accommodation reservations, Rentalcars.com for car rentals, and Priceline for a broad range of travel services including hotels, flights, and vacation packages. For consumers looking to compare prices across different providers, KAYAK offers an online price comparison service. Beyond travel, Booking Holdings also facilitates restaurant bookings through OpenTable and provides related services like travel insurance and restaurant management tools.
Booking Holdings primarily serves two key customer segments worldwide: individual consumers seeking convenient ways to book travel and dining, and a diverse array of service providers, including hotels, airlines, car rental companies, cruise lines, and restaurants, by offering them platforms to reach a global customer base and manage reservations.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Booking Holdings:
- Amazon for travel: It's a vast online marketplace where you can book almost everything related to travel, from hotels and flights to rental cars and vacation packages.
- The Expedia Group of companies, but also for restaurants: Similar to its main competitor, Expedia, it's a major online travel agency offering bookings for flights, hotels, and cars, but it also includes a popular platform for restaurant reservations (OpenTable).
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- Online Accommodation Reservations: Provides a platform for booking hotels, resorts, apartments, and other lodging options globally through Booking.com and Agoda.
- Online Rental Car Reservations: Offers services to book rental cars from various providers via Rentalcars.com and Priceline.
- Online Flight Reservations: Enables consumers to book airline tickets through Priceline and Agoda.
- Online Travel Packages & Cruises: Priceline offers bundled vacation packages and cruise booking services.
- Online Travel Price Comparison (Meta-search): KAYAK allows users to search and compare prices for airline tickets, accommodations, and rental cars from various travel sites.
- Online Restaurant Reservations & Management: OpenTable facilitates booking tables at restaurants and offers restaurant management services.
- Travel-Related Insurance Products: Provides insurance products associated with travel bookings.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Booking Holdings (BKNG) primarily sells its services to **individual consumers** rather than other businesses. Its major customers can be categorized as follows:
- Travelers: Individuals seeking to book various travel-related services such as accommodations (hotels, vacation rentals), flights, rental cars, cruises, and vacation packages. This category encompasses users of platforms like Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, Rentalcars.com, and KAYAK.
- Diners/Restaurant Patrons: Individuals looking to make online reservations for restaurants. This primarily includes users of OpenTable.
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Glenn D. Fogel
Chief Executive Officer and Director
Glenn D. Fogel has served as Chief Executive Officer and President of Booking Holdings since January 2017, and as Chief Executive Officer of Booking.com since June 2019. He joined Booking Holdings in February 2000, and before becoming CEO, he served as Head of Worldwide Strategy and Planning from November 2010 to December 2016, and as Executive Vice President, Corporate Development, from March 2009 to December 2016. In these roles, he was responsible for worldwide mergers, acquisitions, and strategic alliances, playing a key role in transformative acquisitions such as Booking.com, KAYAK, and Agoda. Prior to joining Booking Holdings, Mr. Fogel was a trader at a global asset management firm and began his career as an investment banker specializing in the air transportation industry.
Ewout Steenbergen
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Ewout Steenbergen joined Booking Holdings as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on March 15, 2024. Before this role, he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at S&P Global Inc. from 2016 to March 2024. At S&P Global, he was also appointed President, Engineering Solutions, in 2022 following the merger with IHS Markit, and led Kensho Technologies, an artificial intelligence company, since 2018. Prior to S&P Global, Mr. Steenbergen was Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Voya Financial, Inc., a financial services company, from 2010 to 2016, and held various leadership roles at ING Group.
Peter J. Millones, Jr.
Executive Vice President and General Counsel
Peter J. Millones Jr. has served as Executive Vice President of Booking Holdings since April 2003 and as General Counsel since January 2001. He previously held the positions of Vice President and Associate General Counsel from March 2000 to January 2001. Before joining Booking Holdings, Mr. Millones was with the law firm of Latham & Watkins LLP.
Paulo Pisano
Chief Human Resources Officer
Paulo Pisano has served as Chief Human Resources Officer of Booking Holdings since August 2021. Prior to this, he was Senior Vice President and Chief People Officer of Booking.com starting in March 2020.
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The key risks to Booking Holdings' business are primarily regulatory scrutiny, the potential for disintermediation by artificial intelligence and direct booking trends, and macroeconomic and geopolitical sensitivities.
1. Regulatory Scrutiny and Anti-Competitive Concerns
Booking Holdings faces significant regulatory pressure and potential legal action. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is reportedly investigating Booking Holdings' subsidiary Priceline.com and its affiliate Guest Reservations over allegations of misleading customers with hidden hotel booking fees. This could result in substantial penalties, potentially exceeding $500 million, and require changes to their business practices. Furthermore, the European General Court upheld a decision to block Booking Holdings' $1.9 billion acquisition of ETraveli, citing concerns about increased market dominance. This indicates a challenging regulatory environment that may restrict future expansion and acquisition strategies.
2. Disintermediation by AI and Direct Booking Trends
The rise of advanced AI-powered search tools and chatbots poses a risk of disintermediating online travel agencies (OTAs) like Booking Holdings by directing travelers straight to suppliers. For example, Expedia's partnership with Meta's Muse AI assistant has heightened concerns that AI agents could bypass traditional OTA platforms. This shift could reduce Booking Holdings' commission rates and weaken its competitive advantage. Additionally, hotels are increasingly investing in their own technology and loyalty programs to encourage direct bookings, thereby lessening their reliance on OTAs. Even Google, a key partner for traffic, represents a potential competitive threat if it further integrates direct booking capabilities.
3. Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Sensitivity
The travel industry is highly susceptible to broader economic conditions and geopolitical instability. Economic downturns, such as recessions, can lead to rapid declines in discretionary travel spending, directly impacting Booking Holdings' financial performance. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like the Middle East, can significantly affect travel demand and have already contributed to reduced revenue growth guidance for the company. Furthermore, the company's global operations expose it to financial risks associated with foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations.
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Booking Holdings (BKNG) operates in several significant addressable markets globally for its main products and services:
- Online Travel Agencies (including accommodation, flights, and vacation packages): The global online travel agencies market size was valued at approximately USD 718.9 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1,316.8 billion by 2033.
- Online Accommodation Booking: The global online accommodation booking market size is valued at USD 391.85 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 683.92 billion by 2034.
- Online Car Rental: The global online car rental platform market size is valued at USD 117.38 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 207.79 billion by 2034.
- Online Restaurant Reservations: The global online restaurant reservation system market is estimated to be valued at approximately USD 2.68 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 6.46 billion by 2035.
- Travel-Related Insurance Products: The global travel insurance market was valued at USD 35.82 billion in 2026 and is projected to grow to USD 140.78 billion by 2034.
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Booking Holdings (BKNG) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:
- Expansion of the "Connected Trip" Vision and AI Integration: Booking Holdings aims to integrate planning, booking, and travel experiences more seamlessly, leveraging advanced AI technology to offer personalized services and enhance customer engagement. This strategic focus is designed to make the travel experience easier and more enjoyable, ultimately driving increased bookings across its platforms.
- Growth in Alternative Accommodations: The company identifies alternative accommodations as a significant area for future expansion and is actively working to grow its supply in this segment. This focus on non-traditional lodging options, which has already shown healthy growth, is expected to attract a broader customer base and contribute to revenue growth.
- Strategic Geographic Market Expansion: Booking Holdings is prioritizing expansion in key geographic markets, particularly in Asia and the United States. These regions represent substantial opportunities for increasing market share and customer acquisition, thereby fueling revenue growth.
- Enhancement of Direct Booking Channels and Loyalty Programs: The company is concentrating on improving its direct booking channels and strengthening its loyalty programs, such as the Genius program. By driving more direct traffic to its marketplace and fostering customer loyalty, Booking Holdings aims to reduce reliance on paid marketing channels and encourage repeat business, contributing to more efficient revenue generation.
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Share Repurchases
- Booking Holdings executed a significant share repurchase of $3.7 billion in Q2 2026, contributing to $7.4 billion in repurchases for the first half of 2026.
- As of June 30, 2026, the company had $14.5 billion remaining in its stock buyback authorization.
- In February 2025, Booking's board approved a new $20 billion stock buyback program, supplementing the remaining $7.7 billion from a $24 billion program authorized in Q1 2023.
Share Issuance
- In February 2026, the Board of Directors approved a 25-to-1 forward stock split of its common stock, which became effective on April 2, 2026. This action was intended to enhance stock liquidity.
- The company's aggressive share repurchase programs have significantly reduced the number of shares outstanding by approximately 17% since 2020.
Outbound Investments
- In November 2021, Booking Holdings acquired Etraveli Group, an online meta-search platform for flight tickets.
- In May 2021, Booking.com acquired Flyiin, an online marketplace for flight travel.
- The company made two acquisitions in 2021.
Capital Expenditures
- Booking Holdings' capital expenditures were $304 million in 2021, $368 million in 2022, $345 million in 2023, $429 million in 2024, and $322 million in 2025.
- In Q2 2026, capital expenditures were $76 million, representing a 28.97% decrease from the first quarter.
- The company's business model is considered asset-light, with a Capex-to-Operating-Cash-Flow ratio of 0.02 as of June 2026.
Peer Outperformance in Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | Booking Holdings | 10.9% | 17.6x | -13.3% | 45.3% | 64.9% | — |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean | 13.4% | 18.9x | 28.3% | 269.1% | 245.3% | +180pp |
| HLT | Hilton Worldwide | 8.0% | 48.7x | 40.0% | 138.2% | 146.8% | +82pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -15.2% | 33.1% | 45.5% | CVSA 255% · GHC 110% · LRN 107% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | 4.5% | 38.1% | 35.4% | PHM 181% · TOL 164% · GRBK 154% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | 1.0% | 20.5% | 13.7% | MUSA 205% · ORLY 115% · PAG 114% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -3.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | HD 8% · LOW 7% · FND -61% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines ← | 21 | 22.9% | 53.1% | 6.0% | RCL 245% · MAR 160% · HLT 147% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | 4.0% | 82.5% | 1.6% | SGI 59% · MHK -15% |
| Footwear | 9 | 80.5% | 86.0% | -15.1% | DECK 24% · SHOO -12% · CROX -15% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 29.4% | 71.8% | -22.5% | BBY -3% · GME -55% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -10.8% | 34.2% | -23.9% | FTDR 165% · HRB 157% · ADT 24% |
| Restaurants | 36 | -1.1% | -3.5% | -24.2% | EAT 376% · CAKE 167% · TXRH 119% |
| Distributors | 4 | -4.4% | -14.2% | -24.8% | ARMK 88% · GPC 5% · POOL -55% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -18.9% | -6.0% | -34.7% | GOLF 56% · HAS 51% · BC -12% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 22.8% | 22.9% | -39.0% | WHR -82% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 0.9% | 6.2% | -41.2% | OSW 156% · LTH 146% · PLNT -37% |
| Broadline Retail | 12 | -9.3% | 16.3% | -44.5% | EBAY 78% · AMZN 48% · OLLI 28% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 21 | -20.4% | -16.7% | -46.1% | RRR 21% · BYD 20% · LVS 3% |
| Apparel Retail | 27 | -1.9% | 4.6% | -47.5% | ANF 241% · TJX 109% · ROST 108% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 37 | -14.6% | -28.4% | -48.6% | GTX 185% · PATK 73% · ALV 41% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | 13.2% | 22.5% | -52.8% | TPR 258% · RL 230% · KTB 63% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 25 | -4.7% | -11.7% | -58.9% | ULTA 66% · ASO 54% · DKS 22% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -60.7% | -40.9% | -69.5% | GM 59% · F -12% · TSLA -16% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -37.8% | -36.5% | -81.3% | GRMN 123% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 186.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 72.3 |
| Rev LTM | 14,692 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,861 |
| FCF LTM | 4,303 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,694 |
| CFO LTM | 4,708 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,085 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 3.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 16.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 31.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 30.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 17.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 72.3 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.4 |
| P/EBIT | 15.5 |
| P/E | 19.0 |
| P/CFO | 18.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 12.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 69.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -3.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -15.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $168.72 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 126.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/31/1999 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -22.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $167.24 | $175.37 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 0.9% | -3.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 38.4% | 39.2% |
| Downside Capture | 154.68 | 115.79 |
| Upside Capture | 24.26 | 81.14 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 22.3% | 29.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.45 | 0.33 | 0.37 | 0.41 | 0.83 | 0.94 |
| Up Beta | -2.57 | -0.70 | -0.02 | -0.05 | 0.60 | 0.96 |
| Down Beta | -0.12 | -0.17 | 0.45 | 0.79 | 1.02 | 0.95 |
| Up Capture | -130% | -37% | -17% | 19% | 50% | 69% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 26 | 60 | 119 | 400 |
| Down Capture | 19% | 180% | 133% | 66% | 108% | 100% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 15 | 27 | 38 | 66 | 132 | 351 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BKNG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | -14.8% | 39.2% | -0.32 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -0.6% | 19.9% | -0.16 | 52.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.41 | 29.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.6% | 28.7% | 0.11 | 5.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 37.7% | 21.2% | 1.40 | -33.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.0% | 14.2% | 0.55 | 30.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -20.8% | 43.3% | -0.42 | 11.5% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BKNG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | 12.2% | 33.6% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.1% | 24.2% | 0.13 | 59.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 54.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 2.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.29 | 0.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 38.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 5.9% | 51.5% | 0.29 | 25.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with BKNG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG | 11.4% | 33.1% | 0.40 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 22.3% | 0.52 | 61.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 59.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.0% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 1.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.6% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 13.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 45.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 61.3% | 66.2% | 1.01 | 16.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/6/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2026 | 9.8% | ||
| 8/4/2026 | 6.6% | 9.6% | 2.7% |
| 4/28/2026 | 0.3% | -3.3% | -2.1% |
| 2/18/2026 | -6.1% | -2.5% | 0.8% |
| 10/28/2025 | -0.9% | -2.5% | -4.1% |
| 7/29/2025 | 0.4% | -2.4% | 0.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 3.9% | 5.2% | 12.1% |
| 2/20/2025 | -0.5% | -2.0% | -7.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 6.0% | 9.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -3.3% | -6.9% |
| Max Positive | 9.8% | 13.5% | 20.4% |
| Max Negative | -10.1% | -12.4% | -13.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/3/2026 | 9.8% | ||
| 8/4/2026 | 6.6% | 9.6% | 2.7% |
| 4/28/2026 | 0.3% | -3.3% | -2.1% |
| 2/18/2026 | -6.1% | -2.5% | 0.8% |
| 10/28/2025 | -0.9% | -2.5% | -4.1% |
| 7/29/2025 | 0.4% | -2.4% | 0.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 3.9% | 5.2% | 12.1% |
| 2/20/2025 | -0.5% | -2.0% | -7.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | 4.8% | 12.0% | 16.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | -9.2% | -7.4% | 6.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | 3.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% |
| 2/22/2024 | -10.1% | -11.1% | -6.9% |
| 11/2/2023 | 0.7% | 6.0% | 10.4% |
| 8/3/2023 | 7.9% | 13.5% | 9.7% |
| 5/4/2023 | -1.3% | 2.0% | 2.6% |
| 2/23/2023 | 1.1% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| 11/2/2022 | 2.7% | 4.9% | 17.3% |
| 8/3/2022 | -1.0% | 2.9% | -5.8% |
| 5/4/2022 | 3.3% | -1.5% | 11.1% |
| 2/23/2022 | -7.1% | -12.4% | -8.4% |
| 11/3/2021 | 0.1% | 5.5% | -13.2% |
| 8/4/2021 | 5.9% | 5.5% | 10.3% |
| 5/5/2021 | -2.5% | -7.1% | -1.0% |
| 2/24/2021 | -7.0% | -6.9% | -7.1% |
| 11/5/2020 | 0.9% | 11.0% | 20.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 13 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 3.0% | 6.0% | 9.7% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -3.3% | -6.9% |
| Max Positive | 9.8% | 13.5% | 20.4% |
| Max Negative | -10.1% | -12.4% | -13.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/28/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/18/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/23/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/4/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Dividends | Reported | 0.42 | ||||||
| Q4 2026 Room Nights Growth | Reported | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | -2.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 4.0% for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | -2.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 5.0% for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | -1.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 6.0% for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Adjusted Revenue Growth | Reported | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | -4.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 5.0% for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Constant Currency Adjusted Revenue Growth | Reported | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | -3.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 6.0% for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | Reported | 0.0% | -5.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 5.0% for Q3 2026 | |||
| 2026 Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | |||||||
| 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | |||||||
| 2026 Adjusted Revenue Growth | Reported | |||||||
| 2026 Constant Currency Adjusted Revenue Growth | Reported | |||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | Reported | |||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS Growth | Reported | |||||||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Room Nights Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.0% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | Same New | Guidance: 5.0% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 3.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.0% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | Same New | Guidance: 5.0% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Constant Currency Revenue Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 3.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.0% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | Same New | Guidance: 5.0% for Q2 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Room Nights Growth | Reported | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | -3.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 6.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | -10.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 15.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | -5.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 8.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | -10.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 15.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Constant Currency Revenue Growth | Reported | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | -5.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 8.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | -7.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 12.0% for Q1 2026 | |
| 2026 Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 8.0% | 9.5% | 11.0% | ||||
| 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | ||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | ||||
| 2026 Constant Currency Revenue Growth | Reported | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS Growth | Reported | 12.0% | 13.5% | 15.0% | ||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Room Nights Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Actual: 5.0% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 14.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 3.0% | Higher New | Actual: 12.0% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings Growth | Reported | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | ||||
| Q1 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 14.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | 4.0% | Higher New | Actual: 11.0% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Constant Currency Revenue Growth | Reported | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | ||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | Reported | 10.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% | ||||
Insider Activity
Updated 10/16/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pisano, Paulo | CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 10162026 | 163.06 | 1,500 | 244,590 | 11,479,424 | Form |
| 2 | Pisano, Paulo | CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 9162026 | 173.02 | 1,500 | 259,530 | 12,440,138 | Form |
| 3 | Pisano, Paulo | CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 203.48 | 3,000 | 610,440 | 14,935,432 | Form |
| 4 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 211.00 | 375 | 79,125 | 3,404,063 | Form | |
| 5 | Millones, Peter J | EXECUTIVE VP, GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 207.59 | 50,050 | 10,390,070 | 77,852,864 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pisano, Paulo | CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 10162026 | 163.06 | 1,500 | 244,590 | 11,479,424 | Form |
| 2 | Pisano, Paulo | CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 9162026 | 173.02 | 1,500 | 259,530 | 12,440,138 | Form |
| 3 | Pisano, Paulo | CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 203.48 | 3,000 | 610,440 | 14,935,432 | Form |
| 4 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 211.00 | 375 | 79,125 | 3,404,063 | Form | |
| 5 | Millones, Peter J | EXECUTIVE VP, GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 207.59 | 50,050 | 10,390,070 | 77,852,864 | Form |
| 6 | Steenbergen, Ewout L | CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 8132026 | 211.03 | 20,000 | 4,220,516 | 12,618,078 | Form |
| 7 | Mylod, Robert J JR | Annox Capital, LLC | Sell | 8062026 | 206.70 | 1,000 | 206,700 | 3,100,500 | Form | |
| 8 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 192.00 | 1,125 | 216,000 | 3,169,536 | Form | |
| 9 | Millones, Peter J | EXECUTIVE VP, GENERAL COUNSEL | Direct | Sell | 5272026 | 163.67 | 62,500 | 10,229,456 | 69,572,577 | Form |
| 10 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 192.00 | 1,125 | 216,000 | 3,081,600 | Form | |
| 11 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 185.36 | 16,726 | 3,100,294 | 55,268,868 | Form |
| 12 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 4292.10 | 669 | 2,871,413 | 54,063,261 | Form |
| 13 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 4149.75 | 452 | 1,875,688 | 76,948,864 | Form |
| 14 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 4093.72 | 550 | 2,251,544 | 77,760,146 | Form |
| 15 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 4043.49 | 10 | 40,435 | 78,989,577 | Form |
| 16 | Mylod, Robert J JR | Annox Capital, LLC | Sell | 2032026 | 5105.36 | 40 | 204,214 | 4,288,503 | Form | |
| 17 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 5208.09 | 60 | 312,486 | 101,844,265 | Form |
| 18 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 5181.34 | 953 | 4,937,816 | 101,631,954 | Form |
| 19 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 5191.15 | 15 | 77,867 | 3,566,320 | Form | |
| 20 | Mylod, Robert J JR | Annox Capital, LLC | Sell | 1052026 | 5290.38 | 40 | 211,615 | 4,655,536 | Form | |
| 21 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 5464.94 | 442 | 2,415,502 | 112,402,826 | Form |
| 22 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 5414.53 | 571 | 3,091,695 | 113,759,213 | Form |
| 23 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 5362.00 | 15 | 80,430 | 3,764,124 | Form | |
| 24 | Mylod, Robert J JR | Annox Capital, LLC | Sell | 12032025 | 5000.00 | 40 | 200,000 | 4,600,000 | Form | |
| 25 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 5062.25 | 170 | 860,582 | 109,248,328 | Form |
| 26 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 5007.69 | 400 | 2,003,074 | 108,922,184 | Form |
| 27 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 4820.35 | 443 | 2,135,414 | 106,775,542 | Form |
| 28 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 5030.00 | 15 | 75,450 | 3,606,510 | Form | |
| 29 | Mylod, Robert J JR | Annox Capital, LLC | Sell | 11102025 | 5000.00 | 40 | 200,000 | 4,800,000 | Form | |
| 30 | Pisano, Paulo | CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 5000.00 | 200 | 1,000,000 | 7,570,000 | Form |
| 31 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 10162025 | 5254.04 | 388 | 2,038,568 | 118,709,788 | Form |
| 32 | Fogel, Glenn D | CEO AND PRESIDENT | Direct | Sell | 10162025 | 5141.53 | 625 | 3,213,454 | 118,162,552 | Form |
| 33 | Wittman, Vanessa Ames | Direct | Sell | 10162025 | 5291.98 | 15 | 79,380 | 3,873,729 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 6, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $723.8 Mil | 11.1% | 25 | ADD +20.1% | 13F |
| Prevatt Capital Ltd | $36.5 Mil | 9.8% | 11 | ADD +18.9% | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $36.6 Mil | 9.8% | 12 | TRIM -9.4% | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $252.6 Mil | 8.6% | 8 | TRIM -7.7% | 13F |
| Harvard Management Co Inc | $147.1 Mil | 8.1% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $137.5 Mil | 7.9% | 27 | TRIM -45.5% | 13F |
| BloombergSen Inc. | $65.0 Mil | 7.3% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $27.1 Mil | 6.7% | 27 | ADD +1000.9% | 13F |
| L1 Capital International Pty Ltd | $99.6 Mil | 5.9% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Dorsey Asset Management, LLC | $69.2 Mil | 5.5% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Par Capital Management Inc | $179.2 Mil | 5.2% | 45 | ADD +73.9% | 13F |
| C Partners Holding GmbH | $16.2 Mil | 5.1% | 7 | TRIM -27.7% | 13F |
| Wedgewood Partners Inc | $23.2 Mil | 4.8% | 22 | TRIM -5.2% | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $12.9 Mil | 4.5% | 24 | TRIM -26.1% | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $313.4 Mil | 4.4% | 25 | TRIM -18.3% | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $184.3 Mil | 4.0% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $26.5 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | TRIM -11.9% | 13F |
| MayTech Global Investments, LLC | $26.2 Mil | 3.2% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Dundas Partners LLP | $38.3 Mil | 3.1% | 49 | ADD +9.6% | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $23.2 Mil | 2.7% | 38 | ADD +155.3% | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $30.9 Mil | 2.0% | 17 | TRIM -30.9% | 13F |
| Bender Robert & Associates | $7.5 Mil | 1.8% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $9.8 Mil | 1.7% | 15 | ADD +2585.0% | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $96.0 Mil | 1.7% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $82.4 Mil | 1.7% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $82.4 Mil | 1.7% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $32.2 Mil | 1.5% | 29 | New | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $9.8 Mil | 1.7% | 15 | ADD +2585.0% | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $27.1 Mil | 6.7% | 27 | ADD +1000.9% | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $23.2 Mil | 2.7% | 38 | ADD +155.3% | 13F |
| Metropolis Capital Ltd | $14.0 Mil | 0.5% | 16 | ADD +82.0% | 13F |
| Par Capital Management Inc | $179.2 Mil | 5.2% | 45 | ADD +73.9% | 13F |
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $723.8 Mil | 11.1% | 25 | ADD +20.1% | 13F |
| Prevatt Capital Ltd | $36.5 Mil | 9.8% | 11 | ADD +18.9% | 13F |
| Dundas Partners LLP | $38.3 Mil | 3.1% | 49 | ADD +9.6% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $97.9 Mil | 0.9% | 40 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Aspen Grove Capital, LLC | $69.5 Mil | 12.0% | 204 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Crosslink Capital Inc | $19.9 Mil | 1.5% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Agave Capital Management Ltd | $16.1 Mil | 2.7% | 23 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Stony Point Capital LLC | $15.9 Mil | 1.2% | 31 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Firetrail Investments PTY LTD | $11.9 Mil | 3.9% | 29 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Rovida Investment Management Ltd | $5.4 Mil | 0.7% | 17 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $18.6 Mil | 1.5% | 25 | TRIM -55.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Lone Pine Capital LLC | $10.1 Mil | 0.1% | 36 | TRIM -48.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $137.5 Mil | 7.9% | 27 | TRIM -45.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $30.9 Mil | 2.0% | 17 | TRIM -30.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| C Partners Holding GmbH | $16.2 Mil | 5.1% | 7 | TRIM -27.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $12.9 Mil | 4.5% | 24 | TRIM -26.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $313.4 Mil | 4.4% | 25 | TRIM -18.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $26.5 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | TRIM -11.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $36.6 Mil | 9.8% | 12 | TRIM -9.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $32.1 Mil | 1.0% | 30 | TRIM -7.9% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $252.6 Mil | 8.6% | 8 | TRIM -7.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Wedgewood Partners Inc | $23.2 Mil | 4.8% | 22 | TRIM -5.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd | $723.8 Mil | 11.1% | 25 | ADD +20.1% | 13F |
| Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD | $313.4 Mil | 4.4% | 25 | TRIM -18.3% | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $252.6 Mil | 8.6% | 8 | TRIM -7.7% | 13F |
| Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd | $184.3 Mil | 4.0% | 32 | Hold | 13F |
| Par Capital Management Inc | $179.2 Mil | 5.2% | 45 | ADD +73.9% | 13F |
| Harvard Management Co Inc | $147.1 Mil | 8.1% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd | $137.5 Mil | 7.9% | 27 | TRIM -45.5% | 13F |
| L1 Capital International Pty Ltd | $99.6 Mil | 5.9% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| DSM Capital Partners LLC | $96.0 Mil | 1.7% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Kensico Capital Management Corp | $82.4 Mil | 1.7% | 20 | New | 13F |
| Dorsey Asset Management, LLC | $69.2 Mil | 5.5% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| BloombergSen Inc. | $65.0 Mil | 7.3% | 27 | Hold | 13F |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $50.4 Mil | 0.1% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Dundas Partners LLP | $38.3 Mil | 3.1% | 49 | ADD +9.6% | 13F |
| RIT Capital Partners PLC | $36.6 Mil | 9.8% | 12 | TRIM -9.4% | 13F |
| Prevatt Capital Ltd | $36.5 Mil | 9.8% | 11 | ADD +18.9% | 13F |
| Bowie Capital Management, LLC | $32.2 Mil | 1.5% | 29 | New | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $32.1 Mil | 1.0% | 30 | TRIM -7.9% | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $30.9 Mil | 2.0% | 17 | TRIM -30.9% | 13F |
| Varenne Capital Partners | $27.1 Mil | 6.7% | 27 | ADD +1000.9% | 13F |
| Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ | $26.5 Mil | 3.4% | 34 | TRIM -11.9% | 13F |
| MayTech Global Investments, LLC | $26.2 Mil | 3.2% | 23 | Hold | 13F |
| Wedgewood Partners Inc | $23.2 Mil | 4.8% | 22 | TRIM -5.2% | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $23.2 Mil | 2.7% | 38 | ADD +155.3% | 13F |
| CTC LLC | $18.6 Mil | 1.5% | 25 | TRIM -55.5% | 13F |
BKNG Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive based on re-accelerating Q3 room night growth of 7% and a clear strategy to address AI disruption with new products like Vayo. The market appears to be looking through the lowered Q4 guidance. However, a recent revenue decline of -1.3% and margin pressure prevent a more aggressive stance until the growth trajectory is clarified.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional Marketplace(Number of Bookings) x (Gross Booking Value per Booking) x (Effective Take Rate) Operating leverage from scaling transaction volume over a largely fixed cost base, and efficiency in performance marketing spend.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests the company is successfully pivoting to defend its franchise and capture more of the travel wallet.
- Q3 room night growth accelerated to 7% year-over-year, up from 5% in Q2.
- The Genius loyalty program's top tiers account for a high-50% share of room nights.
- The company launched Vayo, a new AI travel agent, with a planned $100M investment.
- Supply continues to grow, with properties on Booking.com increasing to 4.7 million.
PRIMARY RISK
A sharp deceleration, with latest-quarter revenue declining -1.3% and lowered Q4 guidance, suggests the core business is weakening as large technology firms enter the travel space with their own AI agents.
- Latest-quarter revenue declined -1.3% year-over-year, a sharp drop from 8% growth in Q2.
- Q4 2026 guidance for room nights was lowered to 1% to 3% growth.
- TTM operating margin compressed to 32.8% from 34.5% a year earlier.
- Operating expenses grew 10.8% TTM, outpacing revenue growth of 8%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Room Nights | 7% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026 - Accelerating | The 7% growth in the latest quarter marks a re-acceleration from 5% in Q2. Management commentary on the earnings call attributed this improvement to stronger international travel originating from Europe and Asia, while domestic travel remained stable. |
| Gross Bookings | 10% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026 (11% on a constant currency basis) - Accelerating | The acceleration in constant currency growth to 11% in Q3 from a stable 8% in the first half of the year reflects both higher room night volume and a modest increase in pricing (Average Daily Rates). |
| Rental Car Days | 23 million (Three Months Ended September 30, 2026) | Measures the volume of the car rental business, indicating demand for ground transportation services. |
| Flight Tickets | 21 million (Three Months Ended September 30, 2026) | Measures the volume of the airline ticket business and is a key indicator of the expansion into non-accommodation verticals and the 'Connected Trip' strategy. |
AI Pivot vs. Cyclical Slowdown
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the 11% post-earnings stock rally was right to focus on accelerating Q3 room night growth of 7% and the launch of AI agent Vayo as proof of a durable, innovative franchise.
CORE TENSION
Can the long-term promise of the AI-powered 'Connected Trip' offset the immediate reality of a -1.3% revenue decline and lowered Q4 guidance, which the market has so far ignored?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls, as the market's strong positive reaction to earnings indicates a willingness to look past near-term headwinds and bet on the long-term AI strategy.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue the -1.3% revenue decline and lowered Q4 guidance are the start of a structural slowdown, and the AI story is a narrative to mask fundamental weakness in a competitive market.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
December 31, 2026 | Quarterly Dividend Payment Watch: A cash dividend of $0.42 per share of common stock is payable to stockholders of record as of December 11, 2026. |
1/26/2027 | Peer AI Initiatives Gaining Traction Watch: Updates from META on Muse user growth, engagement, and commerce transaction volume, indicating potential disintermediation. |
2/10/2027 | Negative Read-Through from Travel Peers Watch: Commentary from peers on Q4 travel demand trends and their outlook for Q1 2027. |
2/16/2027 | Earnings Miss on Lowered Guidance Watch: Whether reported Q4 results meet or miss the lowered guidance bar, and the outlook for Q1 2027. |
No set date | Adverse Regulatory Action or Fines Watch: News of investigations, fines, or mandated business practice changes from regulators, particularly in the EU. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-03 | Q3 Earnings Beat, Guidance Lowered Details: The company reported Q3 earnings that beat estimates. However, guidance for Q4 was lowered for key metrics including Room Nights and Gross Bookings Growth. | +11.2% $153.75 -> $170.97 |
2026-10-14 | New AI Travel Agent Launched Details: Booking Holdings announced a planned $100M investment in its new company Vayo, a personal AI travel agent. | +5.3% $157.51 -> $165.80 |
2026-09-07 | Major Institutional Investment Disclosed Details: First Eagle Investment Management LLC disclosed purchasing a new stake valued at approximately $876.32 million during the second quarter. | -7.6% $194.66 -> $179.87 |
2026-08-04 | Q2 Earnings Report Beat Details: The company reported Q2 results. The two-day stock reaction around the earnings call was 7.0% versus 2.0% for the S&P 500. | +7.4% $192.25 -> $206.52 |
2026-05-05 | AI Booking Integration with Partners Details: Nextech3D.ai announced an AI-enabled hotel booking integration using inventory from Expedia, Priceline, and Booking.com to extend its event technology platform. | +1.7% $164.77 -> $167.49 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: BKNG trades at roughly 34% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (3.4x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
EXPE - Expedia
Direct OTA CompetitorExpedia offers pure-play exposure to the online travel agency model. While its operating margin of 17.4% is lower, its trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 12% has recently outpaced Booking Holdings.
META - Meta Platforms
Structural AI Threat/PartnerMeta provides exposure to the foundational AI models that could disrupt travel booking. Its 'Muse' personal agent is already live, with shopping as a key use case, representing a potential long-term threat or partnership opportunity.
Booking Holdings is a global travel toll road, leveraging its immense scale and network effects to build an integrated 'Connected Trip' ecosystem while navigating the disruptive potential of AI by investing in its own agentic capabilities.
The company is transitioning from a pure accommodations booking engine to a comprehensive travel platform. This 'Connected Trip' strategy, enabled by a shift to a merchant payment model and expansion into flights and other verticals, aims to capture more of the travel wallet and increase customer loyalty through its Genius program. While facing threats from new AI-powered competitors, the company is actively developing its own AI agents (Vayo, a recently discussed product) and leveraging AI to improve efficiency, betting that its direct relationships with millions of suppliers provide a durable moat.
Sustained growth in 'Connected Trip' transactions, continued market share gains in the U.S., successful scaling of new AI products like Vayo, and growth in direct bookings outpacing paid channels.
Evidence of significant booking volume shifting to new AI-native travel agents or large tech platforms like Google and Meta, a sustained decline in marketing ROI, or major regulatory actions that limit its business model.
Short-term fluctuations in quarterly room night growth due to specific geopolitical events or holiday timing; single-quarter marketing deleverage if tied to opportunistic investment.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's positive reaction to the Q3 2026 earnings report, where the stock jumped 11% despite the company lowering its Q4 guidance, suggesting investors are focused on strong underlying execution and the long-term AI strategy over near-term headwinds.
Booking Holdings — Investor Video Playlist






Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Resources |
| Skift |
| Hotel News Now |
| Cruise Industry News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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