Booking (BKNG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $5341.4302 | Market Cap: $173.0 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Booking (BKNG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $5341.4302Market Cap: $173.0 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.7x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34% | Key risksBKNG key risks include [1] margin compression from Google's growing travel presence and evolving ad policies, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 8.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.3 Bil | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 34% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 8.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.3 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 6.7x |
| Key risksBKNG key risks include [1] margin compression from Google's growing travel presence and evolving ad policies, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
BKNG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Following Booking Holdings' (BKNG) third-quarter 2025 earnings report on October 28, 2025, and other developments in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, several factors contributed to the stock's -4.3% movement.
1. Moderated Q4 2025 Guidance: Despite robust third-quarter results, Booking Holdings' guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 indicated a deceleration in key metrics such as room night growth and revenue compared to the "explosive numbers" seen in Q3, which may have tempered investor enthusiasm.
2. Decline in Free Cash Flow: The company reported a significant 40% year-over-year decrease in free cash flow for the third quarter of 2025, a point of concern for investors.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| BKNG Return | 8% | 8% | -16% | 76% | 41% | 10% | 169% |
| Peers Return | � | 22% | -32% | 50% | 10% | 17% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| BKNG Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 50% | 75% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 52% | 40% | 58% | 62% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| BKNG Max Drawdown | -44% | -15% | -32% | 0% | -6% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -11% | -38% | -5% | -18% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EXPE, ABNB, MAR, HLT, TRIP. See BKNG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | BKNG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -39.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 203 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 81.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 738 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 196.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 277 days | 1480 days |
Compare to META, ABNB, EXPE, H, TRIP
In The Past
Booking's stock fell -39.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2022. A -39.5% loss requires a 65.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to BKNG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 08312022 | BKNG | Booking | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 36.1% | 65.5% | -12.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 08312022 | BKNG | Booking | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 36.1% | 65.5% | -12.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Booking
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 287.91 |
| Mkt Cap | 75.2 |
| Rev LTM | 13,156 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,642 |
| FCF LTM | 2,647 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,296 |
| CFO LTM | 3,238 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,985 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 19.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 75.2 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/EBIT | 18.8 |
| P/E | 27.7 |
| P/CFO | 18.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 7.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 116.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 7.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 36.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | -0.9% | -2.5% | -4.1% |
| 7/29/2025 | 0.4% | -2.4% | 0.4% |
| 2/20/2025 | -0.5% | -2.0% | -7.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | 4.8% | 12.0% | 16.5% |
| 8/1/2024 | -9.2% | -7.4% | 6.7% |
| 5/2/2024 | 3.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% |
| 2/22/2024 | -10.1% | -11.1% | -6.9% |
| 11/2/2023 | 0.7% | 6.0% | 10.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 1.6% | 5.5% | 9.7% |
| Median Negative | -1.3% | -5.6% | -7.1% |
| Max Positive | 7.9% | 13.5% | 27.5% |
| Max Negative | -10.1% | -12.4% | -16.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |