Booking Holdings (BKNG)


Market Price (11/6/2026): $167.0 | Market Cap: $124.2 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Booking Holdings (BKNG)


Market Price (11/6/2026): $167.0
Market Cap: $124.2 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, FCF Yield is 7.3%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 9.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.2 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 25 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.5x

Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.3%

Key risks
BKNG key risks include [1] margin compression from Google's growing travel presence and evolving ad policies, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.7%, FCF Yield is 7.3%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 33%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 33%, CFO LTM is 9.6 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.2 Bil
3 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 25 Bil
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Fintech & Digital Payments. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -43%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 4.5x
8 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.3%
9 Key risks
BKNG key risks include [1] margin compression from Google's growing travel presence and evolving ad policies, Show more.

BKNG in ETFs

Weight = BKNG's share of each fund

SPY0.18%
VOO0.19%
IVV0.17%
VTI0.17%
ITOT0.17%
QQQ0.53%
QQQM0.49%
IWB0.16%
+31 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 11/5/2026

Booking Holdings (BKNG) stock has lost about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Significant Revenue Reduction due to FTC Matter.

Booking Holdings reported a $900 million reduction in reported revenue for fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026) related to a Federal Trade Commission (FTC) action concerning its Priceline subsidiary regarding alleged deceptive hotel advertising. This charge led to a reported 1% year-over-year revenue decline to $8.89 billion, despite gross bookings growing 10% and room nights increasing 7%.

2. Weakened Fiscal Q4 2026 Outlook Amidst Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Headwinds.

Management provided a cautious outlook for fiscal Q4 2026 (October-December), forecasting room night growth of only 1% to 3%, a significant deceleration from the 7% growth observed in fiscal Q3 2026. This softer guidance was attributed to a combination of factors, including weakened international travel demand, ongoing disruptions from the Middle East conflict, elevated airfares, and localized unrest in certain European cities.

Show more
Updated on 11/5/2026

Booking Holdings (BKNG) stock has lost about 10% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Significant Revenue Reduction due to FTC Matter.

Booking Holdings reported a $900 million reduction in reported revenue for fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 30, 2026) related to a Federal Trade Commission (FTC) action concerning its Priceline subsidiary regarding alleged deceptive hotel advertising. This charge led to a reported 1% year-over-year revenue decline to $8.89 billion, despite gross bookings growing 10% and room nights increasing 7%.

2. Weakened Fiscal Q4 2026 Outlook Amidst Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Headwinds.

Management provided a cautious outlook for fiscal Q4 2026 (October-December), forecasting room night growth of only 1% to 3%, a significant deceleration from the 7% growth observed in fiscal Q3 2026. This softer guidance was attributed to a combination of factors, including weakened international travel demand, ongoing disruptions from the Middle East conflict, elevated airfares, and localized unrest in certain European cities.

3. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Cuts.

Several financial analysts adjusted their ratings and lowered price targets for Booking Holdings during the period. For instance, JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its price target from $248.00 to $205.00 on November 4, 2026, while Cantor Fitzgerald reduced its target from $220.00 to $170.00 in October 2026, and further to $150.00 in early November 2026. These revisions contributed to negative investor sentiment and selling pressure.

4. Insider Selling Exceeding $5 Million.

Peter J. Millones, Executive Vice President and General Counsel, sold 50,050 shares of Booking Holdings common stock on August 17, 2026, in multiple open-market transactions with a total value of approximately $10.4 million. This significant insider selling activity, exceeding the $5 million threshold, likely added to investor concerns.

5. Increased Regulatory Scrutiny and AI Disruption Fears.

Beyond the FTC revenue reduction, Booking Holdings faced additional regulatory pressure, including an EU court ruling that upheld the block on its eTraveli acquisition. Furthermore, concerns about potential disruption from advanced AI agents, such as Meta's Muse, raised fears that these technologies could disintermediate online travel agencies by directing travelers directly to hotel websites. Marketing costs also rose, pressured by changes in Google's search display including AI Overviews.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -12.3% change in BKNG stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -28.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)731202611052026Change
Stock Price ($)192.44168.72-12.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)27,68728,1261.6%
Net Income Margin (%)22.2%25.5%14.8%
P/E Multiple24.717.6-28.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7907505.3%
Cumulative Contribution-12.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2026 to 11/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
BKNG-12.3% 
Market (SPY)-1.9%20.7%
Sector (XLY)1.3%56.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 0.7% change in BKNG stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)430202611052026Change
Stock Price ($)167.53168.720.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)27,68728,1261.6%
Net Income Margin (%)22.2%25.5%14.8%
P/E Multiple21.517.6-18.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)7907505.3%
Cumulative Contribution0.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 11/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
BKNG0.7% 
Market (SPY)2.3%18.1%
Sector (XLY)-0.4%52.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The -16.2% change in BKNG stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -45.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)1031202511052026Change
Stock Price ($)201.27168.72-16.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)26,03928,1268.0%
Net Income Margin (%)19.4%25.5%31.7%
P/E Multiple32.317.6-45.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8107508.0%
Cumulative Contribution-16.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 11/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
BKNG-16.2% 
Market (SPY)8.4%29.1%
Sector (XLY)-1.4%51.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 54.8% change in BKNG stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)1031202311052026Change
Stock Price ($)109.00168.7254.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)19,34128,12645.4%
Net Income Margin (%)23.0%25.5%10.7%
P/E Multiple22.417.6-21.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)91775022.3%
Cumulative Contribution54.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2023 to 11/5/2026
ReturnCorrelation
BKNG54.8% 
Market (SPY)81.3%46.3%
Sector (XLY)58.2%54.4%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
BKNG Return8%-16%76%41%9%-21%94%
Peers Return19%-41%78%15%14%-4%58%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%105%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BKNG Win Rate58%50%75%58%50%36% 
Peers Win Rate52%35%63%57%48%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%45% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BKNG Max Drawdown-22%-40%-15%-20%-21%-32% 
Peers Max Drawdown-34%-53%-26%-31%-36%-32% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: META, ABNB, EXPE, H, TRIP. See BKNG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/5/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventBKNGS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-18.4%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven22.5%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven23 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-17.2%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven20.7%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven41 days18 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-33.6%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven50.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven108 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-41.5%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven70.8%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven231 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-18.0%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven22.0%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven255 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-25.5%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven34.2%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven32 days62 days

Compare to EXPE, ABNB, MAR, HLT, TRIP

In The Past

Booking Holdings's stock fell -18.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventBKNGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-33.6%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven50.6%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven108 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-41.5%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven70.8%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven231 days140 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-25.5%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven34.2%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven32 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-21.7%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.8%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven10 days15 days
2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash
  % Loss-35.2%-15.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven54.3%18.2%
  Time to Breakeven56 days125 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-60.2%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven151.2%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven256 days1085 days

Compare to EXPE, ABNB, MAR, HLT, TRIP

In The Past

Booking Holdings's stock fell -18.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 22.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Booking Holdings (BKNG)

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is a global leader in online travel and restaurant reservation services. The company connects consumers with a vast network of travel service providers and restaurants, offering a comprehensive suite of tools to plan and book various aspects of their trips and dining experiences.

Its extensive portfolio includes well-known brands such as Booking.com and Agoda for accommodation reservations, Rentalcars.com for car rentals, and Priceline for a broad range of travel services including hotels, flights, and vacation packages. For consumers looking to compare prices across different providers, KAYAK offers an online price comparison service. Beyond travel, Booking Holdings also facilitates restaurant bookings through OpenTable and provides related services like travel insurance and restaurant management tools.

Booking Holdings primarily serves two key customer segments worldwide: individual consumers seeking convenient ways to book travel and dining, and a diverse array of service providers, including hotels, airlines, car rental companies, cruise lines, and restaurants, by offering them platforms to reach a global customer base and manage reservations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Booking Holdings:

  • Amazon for travel: It's a vast online marketplace where you can book almost everything related to travel, from hotels and flights to rental cars and vacation packages.
  • The Expedia Group of companies, but also for restaurants: Similar to its main competitor, Expedia, it's a major online travel agency offering bookings for flights, hotels, and cars, but it also includes a popular platform for restaurant reservations (OpenTable).

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Online Accommodation Reservations: Provides a platform for booking hotels, resorts, apartments, and other lodging options globally through Booking.com and Agoda.
  • Online Rental Car Reservations: Offers services to book rental cars from various providers via Rentalcars.com and Priceline.
  • Online Flight Reservations: Enables consumers to book airline tickets through Priceline and Agoda.
  • Online Travel Packages & Cruises: Priceline offers bundled vacation packages and cruise booking services.
  • Online Travel Price Comparison (Meta-search): KAYAK allows users to search and compare prices for airline tickets, accommodations, and rental cars from various travel sites.
  • Online Restaurant Reservations & Management: OpenTable facilitates booking tables at restaurants and offers restaurant management services.
  • Travel-Related Insurance Products: Provides insurance products associated with travel bookings.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Booking Holdings (BKNG) primarily sells its services to **individual consumers** rather than other businesses. Its major customers can be categorized as follows:

  1. Travelers: Individuals seeking to book various travel-related services such as accommodations (hotels, vacation rentals), flights, rental cars, cruises, and vacation packages. This category encompasses users of platforms like Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, Rentalcars.com, and KAYAK.
  2. Diners/Restaurant Patrons: Individuals looking to make online reservations for restaurants. This primarily includes users of OpenTable.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

Visa Inc. (V)

Mastercard Incorporated (MA)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Glenn D. Fogel

Chief Executive Officer and Director

Glenn D. Fogel has served as Chief Executive Officer and President of Booking Holdings since January 2017, and as Chief Executive Officer of Booking.com since June 2019. He joined Booking Holdings in February 2000, and before becoming CEO, he served as Head of Worldwide Strategy and Planning from November 2010 to December 2016, and as Executive Vice President, Corporate Development, from March 2009 to December 2016. In these roles, he was responsible for worldwide mergers, acquisitions, and strategic alliances, playing a key role in transformative acquisitions such as Booking.com, KAYAK, and Agoda. Prior to joining Booking Holdings, Mr. Fogel was a trader at a global asset management firm and began his career as an investment banker specializing in the air transportation industry.

Ewout Steenbergen

Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Ewout Steenbergen joined Booking Holdings as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on March 15, 2024. Before this role, he served as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer at S&P Global Inc. from 2016 to March 2024. At S&P Global, he was also appointed President, Engineering Solutions, in 2022 following the merger with IHS Markit, and led Kensho Technologies, an artificial intelligence company, since 2018. Prior to S&P Global, Mr. Steenbergen was Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Voya Financial, Inc., a financial services company, from 2010 to 2016, and held various leadership roles at ING Group.

Peter J. Millones, Jr.

Executive Vice President and General Counsel

Peter J. Millones Jr. has served as Executive Vice President of Booking Holdings since April 2003 and as General Counsel since January 2001. He previously held the positions of Vice President and Associate General Counsel from March 2000 to January 2001. Before joining Booking Holdings, Mr. Millones was with the law firm of Latham & Watkins LLP.

Paulo Pisano

Chief Human Resources Officer

Paulo Pisano has served as Chief Human Resources Officer of Booking Holdings since August 2021. Prior to this, he was Senior Vice President and Chief People Officer of Booking.com starting in March 2020.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Booking Holdings' business are primarily regulatory scrutiny, the potential for disintermediation by artificial intelligence and direct booking trends, and macroeconomic and geopolitical sensitivities.

1. Regulatory Scrutiny and Anti-Competitive Concerns

Booking Holdings faces significant regulatory pressure and potential legal action. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is reportedly investigating Booking Holdings' subsidiary Priceline.com and its affiliate Guest Reservations over allegations of misleading customers with hidden hotel booking fees. This could result in substantial penalties, potentially exceeding $500 million, and require changes to their business practices. Furthermore, the European General Court upheld a decision to block Booking Holdings' $1.9 billion acquisition of ETraveli, citing concerns about increased market dominance. This indicates a challenging regulatory environment that may restrict future expansion and acquisition strategies.

2. Disintermediation by AI and Direct Booking Trends

The rise of advanced AI-powered search tools and chatbots poses a risk of disintermediating online travel agencies (OTAs) like Booking Holdings by directing travelers straight to suppliers. For example, Expedia's partnership with Meta's Muse AI assistant has heightened concerns that AI agents could bypass traditional OTA platforms. This shift could reduce Booking Holdings' commission rates and weaken its competitive advantage. Additionally, hotels are increasingly investing in their own technology and loyalty programs to encourage direct bookings, thereby lessening their reliance on OTAs. Even Google, a key partner for traffic, represents a potential competitive threat if it further integrates direct booking capabilities.

3. Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Sensitivity

The travel industry is highly susceptible to broader economic conditions and geopolitical instability. Economic downturns, such as recessions, can lead to rapid declines in discretionary travel spending, directly impacting Booking Holdings' financial performance. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like the Middle East, can significantly affect travel demand and have already contributed to reduced revenue growth guidance for the company. Furthermore, the company's global operations expose it to financial risks associated with foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Google's direct entry and increasing dominance in online travel search and booking.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Booking Holdings (BKNG) operates in several significant addressable markets globally for its main products and services:

  • Online Travel Agencies (including accommodation, flights, and vacation packages): The global online travel agencies market size was valued at approximately USD 718.9 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 1,316.8 billion by 2033.
  • Online Accommodation Booking: The global online accommodation booking market size is valued at USD 391.85 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 683.92 billion by 2034.
  • Online Car Rental: The global online car rental platform market size is valued at USD 117.38 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 207.79 billion by 2034.
  • Online Restaurant Reservations: The global online restaurant reservation system market is estimated to be valued at approximately USD 2.68 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 6.46 billion by 2035.
  • Travel-Related Insurance Products: The global travel insurance market was valued at USD 35.82 billion in 2026 and is projected to grow to USD 140.78 billion by 2034.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Booking Holdings (BKNG) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives:

  • Expansion of the "Connected Trip" Vision and AI Integration: Booking Holdings aims to integrate planning, booking, and travel experiences more seamlessly, leveraging advanced AI technology to offer personalized services and enhance customer engagement. This strategic focus is designed to make the travel experience easier and more enjoyable, ultimately driving increased bookings across its platforms.
  • Growth in Alternative Accommodations: The company identifies alternative accommodations as a significant area for future expansion and is actively working to grow its supply in this segment. This focus on non-traditional lodging options, which has already shown healthy growth, is expected to attract a broader customer base and contribute to revenue growth.
  • Strategic Geographic Market Expansion: Booking Holdings is prioritizing expansion in key geographic markets, particularly in Asia and the United States. These regions represent substantial opportunities for increasing market share and customer acquisition, thereby fueling revenue growth.
  • Enhancement of Direct Booking Channels and Loyalty Programs: The company is concentrating on improving its direct booking channels and strengthening its loyalty programs, such as the Genius program. By driving more direct traffic to its marketplace and fostering customer loyalty, Booking Holdings aims to reduce reliance on paid marketing channels and encourage repeat business, contributing to more efficient revenue generation.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Booking Holdings executed a significant share repurchase of $3.7 billion in Q2 2026, contributing to $7.4 billion in repurchases for the first half of 2026.
  • As of June 30, 2026, the company had $14.5 billion remaining in its stock buyback authorization.
  • In February 2025, Booking's board approved a new $20 billion stock buyback program, supplementing the remaining $7.7 billion from a $24 billion program authorized in Q1 2023.

Share Issuance

  • In February 2026, the Board of Directors approved a 25-to-1 forward stock split of its common stock, which became effective on April 2, 2026. This action was intended to enhance stock liquidity.
  • The company's aggressive share repurchase programs have significantly reduced the number of shares outstanding by approximately 17% since 2020.

Outbound Investments

  • In November 2021, Booking Holdings acquired Etraveli Group, an online meta-search platform for flight tickets.
  • In May 2021, Booking.com acquired Flyiin, an online marketplace for flight travel.
  • The company made two acquisitions in 2021.

Capital Expenditures

  • Booking Holdings' capital expenditures were $304 million in 2021, $368 million in 2022, $345 million in 2023, $429 million in 2024, and $322 million in 2025.
  • In Q2 2026, capital expenditures were $76 million, representing a 28.97% decrease from the first quarter.
  • The company's business model is considered asset-light, with a Capex-to-Operating-Cash-Flow ratio of 0.02 as of June 2026.

Better Bets vs. Booking Holdings (BKNG)

Peer Outperformance in Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

BKNG has outperformed 75% of its 20 Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it are RCL and HLT. Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines ranks 5th of 22 industries in Consumer Discretionary by median 5Y return.
Share of Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines constituents that BKNG has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
10%
of 20 industry peers · -13.3% return
3Y
45%
of 20 industry peers · 45.3% return
5Y
75%
of 20 industry peers · 64.9% return
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines peers with revenue growth within 4pp of BKNG's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
Ticker Name Rev Growth 3Y Avg P/E 1Y3Y5Y 5Y Gap
BKNG Booking Holdings 10.9% 17.6x -13.3%45.3%64.9% —
RCL Royal Caribbean 13.4% 18.9x 28.3%269.1%245.3% +180pp
HLT Hilton Worldwide 8.0% 48.7x 40.0%138.2%146.8% +82pp
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Consumer Discretionary sector, ranked by 5Y. Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines is BKNG's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Education Services 14 -15.2%33.1%45.5% CVSA 255% · GHC 110% · LRN 107%
Homebuilding 17 4.5%38.1%35.4% PHM 181% · TOL 164% · GRBK 154%
Automotive Retail 17 1.0%20.5%13.7% MUSA 205% · ORLY 115% · PAG 114%
Home Improvement Retail 5 -3.7%5.4%6.6% HD 8% · LOW 7% · FND -61%
Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines ← 21 22.9%53.1%6.0% RCL 245% · MAR 160% · HLT 147%
Home Furnishings 3 4.0%82.5%1.6% SGI 59% · MHK -15%
Footwear 9 80.5%86.0%-15.1% DECK 24% · SHOO -12% · CROX -15%
Computer & Electronics Retail 3 29.4%71.8%-22.5% BBY -3% · GME -55%
Specialized Consumer Services 10 -10.8%34.2%-23.9% FTDR 165% · HRB 157% · ADT 24%
Restaurants 36 -1.1%-3.5%-24.2% EAT 376% · CAKE 167% · TXRH 119%
Distributors 4 -4.4%-14.2%-24.8% ARMK 88% · GPC 5% · POOL -55%
Leisure Products 14 -18.9%-6.0%-34.7% GOLF 56% · HAS 51% · BC -12%
Household Appliances 18 22.8%22.9%-39.0% WHR -82%
Leisure Facilities 12 0.9%6.2%-41.2% OSW 156% · LTH 146% · PLNT -37%
Broadline Retail 12 -9.3%16.3%-44.5% EBAY 78% · AMZN 48% · OLLI 28%
Casinos & Gaming 21 -20.4%-16.7%-46.1% RRR 21% · BYD 20% · LVS 3%
Apparel Retail 27 -1.9%4.6%-47.5% ANF 241% · TJX 109% · ROST 108%
Automotive Parts & Equipment 37 -14.6%-28.4%-48.6% GTX 185% · PATK 73% · ALV 41%
Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods 29 13.2%22.5%-52.8% TPR 258% · RL 230% · KTB 63%
Other Specialty Retail 25 -4.7%-11.7%-58.9% ULTA 66% · ASO 54% · DKS 22%
Automobile Manufacturers 8 -60.7%-40.9%-69.5% GM 59% · F -12% · TSLA -16%
Consumer Electronics 11 -37.8%-36.5%-81.3% GRMN 123%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.

Latest Trefis Analyses

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Peer Comparisons

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Financials

BKNGMETAABNBEXPEHTRIPMedian
NameBooking .Meta Pla.Airbnb Expedia Hyatt Ho.Tripadvi. 
Mkt Price167.00605.76188.80274.00183.717.45186.25
Mkt Cap125.21,545.9111.832.817.30.972.3
Rev LTM28,126241,60613,15916,2267,1091,83214,692
Op Inc LTM9,21979,3802,7382,984596512,861
FCF LTM9,23728,6494,8603,746174-344,303
FCF 3Y Avg8,68441,9374,5052,8842931003,694
CFO LTM9,561133,0874,8604,556328314,708
CFO 3Y Avg9,050107,8024,5103,6604671684,085

Growth & Margins

BKNGMETAABNBEXPEHTRIPMedian
NameBooking .Meta Pla.Airbnb Expedia Hyatt Ho.Tripadvi. 
Rev Chg LTM8.0%27.5%13.6%12.9%2.8%3.2%10.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg10.9%24.0%13.2%8.9%2.5%1.5%9.9%
Rev Chg Q-1.3%26.1%16.5%11.9%-2.4%-11.1%5.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-0.4%5.9%4.0%3.4%-0.6%-2.9%1.5%
Op Inc Chg LTM2.7%-3.1%5.1%50.9%32.4%-62.7%3.9%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg13.6%32.6%16.6%28.8%16.7%-9.5%16.6%
Op Mgn LTM32.8%32.9%20.8%18.4%8.4%2.8%19.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg31.7%38.7%19.5%14.5%6.7%5.8%17.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.7%-5.2%0.3%1.0%1.3%-1.5%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM34.0%55.1%36.9%28.1%4.6%1.7%31.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg35.3%54.9%38.6%24.7%6.8%9.4%30.0%
FCF/Rev LTM32.8%11.9%36.9%23.1%2.4%-1.9%17.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg33.9%23.0%38.5%19.4%4.3%5.6%21.2%

Valuation

BKNGMETAABNBEXPEHTRIPMedian
NameBooking .Meta Pla.Airbnb Expedia Hyatt Ho.Tripadvi. 
Mkt Cap125.21,545.9111.832.817.30.972.3
P/S4.56.48.52.02.40.53.4
P/Op Inc13.619.540.811.029.017.218.4
P/EBIT12.118.938.411.128.5-2.615.5
P/E17.420.541.515.692.9-2.419.0
P/CFO13.111.623.07.252.728.118.0
Total Yield6.7%5.2%2.7%7.1%1.4%-41.7%3.9%
Dividend Yield1.0%0.3%0.0%0.7%0.3%0.0%0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.1%2.5%5.4%11.0%2.0%4.7%5.0%
D/E0.20.10.00.20.31.00.2
Net D/E0.00.0-0.10.00.20.20.0

Returns

BKNGMETAABNBEXPEHTRIPMedian
NameBooking .Meta Pla.Airbnb Expedia Hyatt Ho.Tripadvi. 
1M Rtn5.9%-18.0%17.7%5.4%15.5%-12.6%5.7%
3M Rtn-19.3%2.8%24.5%-10.5%2.8%-28.5%-3.9%
6M Rtn-2.0%-1.6%34.4%8.8%7.9%-33.7%3.2%
12M Rtn-14.2%-4.4%54.1%29.1%33.6%-51.7%12.3%
3Y Rtn43.8%93.7%59.8%148.9%79.0%-53.8%69.4%
1M Excs Rtn8.6%-14.6%19.1%7.3%18.4%-12.2%7.9%
3M Excs Rtn-21.0%3.3%7.0%-10.8%4.4%-30.0%-3.8%
6M Excs Rtn-6.8%-6.4%29.1%4.0%3.2%-38.5%-1.6%
12M Excs Rtn-29.0%-16.7%39.3%16.5%22.6%-63.4%-0.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-29.3%19.6%-32.9%107.7%-1.8%-133.6%-15.5%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment26,91723,73921,36517,090 
Advertising and other revenues    599
Agency revenues    6,663
Merchant revenues    3,696
Total26,91723,73921,36517,09010,958


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$168.72 
Market Cap ($ Bil)126.5 
First Trading Date03/31/1999 
Distance from 52W High-22.6% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$167.24$175.37
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA0.9%-3.8%
 3M1YR
Volatility38.4%39.2%
Downside Capture154.68115.79
Upside Capture24.2681.14
Correlation (S&P 500)22.3%29.9%
BKNG Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.450.330.370.410.830.94
Up Beta-2.57-0.70-0.02-0.050.600.96
Down Beta-0.12-0.170.450.791.020.95
Up Capture-130%-37%-17%19%50%69%
Bmk +ve Days12182862130427
Stock +ve Days7162660119400
Down Capture19%180%133%66%108%100%
Bmk -ve Days10253664121325
Stock -ve Days15273866132351

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with BKNG
BKNG-14.8%39.2%-0.32-
Sector ETF (XLY)-0.6%19.9%-0.1652.0%
Equity (SPY)9.5%13.6%0.4129.1%
Gold (GLD)3.6%28.7%0.115.1%
Commodities (DBC)37.7%21.2%1.40-33.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)12.0%14.2%0.5530.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-20.8%43.3%-0.4211.5%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with BKNG
BKNG12.2%33.6%0.40-
Sector ETF (XLY)4.1%24.2%0.1359.7%
Equity (SPY)11.3%17.3%0.4854.7%
Gold (GLD)17.5%19.1%0.742.7%
Commodities (DBC)8.0%19.6%0.290.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.2%18.9%-0.0538.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)5.9%51.5%0.2925.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with BKNG
BKNG11.4%33.1%0.40-
Sector ETF (XLY)12.7%22.3%0.5261.2%
Equity (SPY)14.9%18.0%0.7059.4%
Gold (GLD)12.0%16.5%0.591.0%
Commodities (DBC)7.6%18.1%0.3313.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.7%20.7%0.2345.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)61.3%66.2%1.0116.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity18.8 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302026-16.9%
Average Daily Volume6.5 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.9 days
Basic Shares Quantity750.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares2.5%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 11/6/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/3/20269.8%  
8/4/20266.6%9.6%2.7%
4/28/20260.3%-3.3%-2.1%
2/18/2026-6.1%-2.5%0.8%
10/28/2025-0.9%-2.5%-4.1%
7/29/20250.4%-2.4%0.4%
4/29/20253.9%5.2%12.1%
2/20/2025-0.5%-2.0%-7.8%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151315
# Negative10119
Median Positive3.0%6.0%9.7%
Median Negative-4.3%-3.3%-6.9%
Max Positive9.8%13.5%20.4%
Max Negative-10.1%-12.4%-13.2%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/3/20269.8%  
8/4/20266.6%9.6%2.7%
4/28/20260.3%-3.3%-2.1%
2/18/2026-6.1%-2.5%0.8%
10/28/2025-0.9%-2.5%-4.1%
7/29/20250.4%-2.4%0.4%
4/29/20253.9%5.2%12.1%
2/20/2025-0.5%-2.0%-7.8%
10/30/20244.8%12.0%16.5%
8/1/2024-9.2%-7.4%6.7%
5/2/20243.0%8.8%8.4%
2/22/2024-10.1%-11.1%-6.9%
11/2/20230.7%6.0%10.4%
8/3/20237.9%13.5%9.7%
5/4/2023-1.3%2.0%2.6%
2/23/20231.1%6.2%3.0%
11/2/20222.7%4.9%17.3%
8/3/2022-1.0%2.9%-5.8%
5/4/20223.3%-1.5%11.1%
2/23/2022-7.1%-12.4%-8.4%
11/3/20210.1%5.5%-13.2%
8/4/20215.9%5.5%10.3%
5/5/2021-2.5%-7.1%-1.0%
2/24/2021-7.0%-6.9%-7.1%
11/5/20200.9%11.0%20.4%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151315
# Negative10119
Median Positive3.0%6.0%9.7%
Median Negative-4.3%-3.3%-6.9%
Max Positive9.8%13.5%20.4%
Max Negative-10.1%-12.4%-13.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202611/03/202610-Q
06/30/202608/04/202610-Q
03/31/202604/28/202610-Q
12/31/202502/18/202610-K
09/30/202510/28/202510-Q
06/30/202507/29/202510-Q
03/31/202504/29/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/22/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
09/30/202611/03/202610-Q
06/30/202608/04/202610-Q
03/31/202604/28/202610-Q
12/31/202502/18/202610-K
09/30/202510/28/202510-Q
06/30/202507/29/202510-Q
03/31/202504/29/202510-Q
12/31/202402/20/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/22/202410-K
09/30/202311/02/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/23/202310-K
09/30/202211/02/202210-Q
06/30/202208/03/202210-Q
03/31/202205/04/202210-Q
12/31/202102/23/202210-K
09/30/202111/03/202110-Q
06/30/202108/04/202110-Q
03/31/202105/05/202110-Q
12/31/202002/24/202110-K
09/30/202011/05/202010-Q
06/30/202008/06/202010-Q
03/31/202005/07/202010-Q
12/31/201902/26/202010-K

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 11/4/2026

Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/3/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2026 DividendsReported 0.42    
Q4 2026 Room Nights GrowthReported1.0%2.0%3.0% -2.0%Lower NewGuidance: 4.0% for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Gross Bookings GrowthReported2.0%3.0%4.0% -2.0%Lower NewGuidance: 5.0% for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings GrowthReported4.0%5.0%6.0% -1.0%Lower NewGuidance: 6.0% for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Adjusted Revenue GrowthReported0.0%1.0%2.0% -4.0%Lower NewGuidance: 5.0% for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Constant Currency Adjusted Revenue GrowthReported2.0%3.0%4.0% -3.0%Lower NewGuidance: 6.0% for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Adjusted EBITDA GrowthReported 0.0%  -5.0%Lower NewGuidance: 5.0% for Q3 2026
2026 Gross Bookings GrowthReported      
2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings GrowthReported      
2026 Adjusted Revenue GrowthReported      
2026 Constant Currency Adjusted Revenue GrowthReported      
2026 Adjusted EBITDA GrowthReported      
2026 Adjusted EPS GrowthReported      


Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/4/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q3 2026 Room Nights GrowthReported3.0%4.0%5.0% 1.0%Higher NewGuidance: 3.0% for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Gross Bookings GrowthReported4.0%5.0%6.0% 0.0%Same NewGuidance: 5.0% for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings GrowthReported5.0%6.0%7.0% 3.0%Higher NewGuidance: 3.0% for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Revenue GrowthReported4.0%5.0%6.0% 0.0%Same NewGuidance: 5.0% for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Constant Currency Revenue GrowthReported5.0%6.0%7.0% 3.0%Higher NewGuidance: 3.0% for Q2 2026
Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA GrowthReported4.0%5.0%6.0% 0.0%Same NewGuidance: 5.0% for Q2 2026

Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/28/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Room Nights GrowthReported2.0%3.0%4.0% -3.0%Lower NewGuidance: 6.0% for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Gross Bookings GrowthReported4.0%5.0%6.0% -10.0%Lower NewGuidance: 15.0% for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings GrowthReported2.0%3.0%4.0% -5.0%Lower NewGuidance: 8.0% for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Revenue GrowthReported4.0%5.0%6.0% -10.0%Lower NewGuidance: 15.0% for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Constant Currency Revenue GrowthReported2.0%3.0%4.0% -5.0%Lower NewGuidance: 8.0% for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA GrowthReported4.0%5.0%6.0% -7.0%Lower NewGuidance: 12.0% for Q1 2026
2026 Gross Bookings GrowthReported8.0%9.5%11.0%   
2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings GrowthReported8.0%8.5%9.0%   
2026 Revenue GrowthReported8.0%8.5%9.0%   
2026 Constant Currency Revenue GrowthReported6.0%7.5%9.0%   
2026 Adjusted EPS GrowthReported12.0%13.5%15.0%   

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/18/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Room Nights GrowthReported5.0%6.0%7.0% 1.0%Higher NewActual: 5.0% for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Gross Bookings GrowthReported14.0%15.0%16.0% 3.0%Higher NewActual: 12.0% for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Constant Currency Gross Bookings GrowthReported7.0%8.0%9.0%   
Q1 2026 Revenue GrowthReported14.0%15.0%16.0% 4.0%Higher NewActual: 11.0% for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Constant Currency Revenue GrowthReported7.0%8.0%9.0%   
Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA GrowthReported10.0%12.0%14.0%   

Insider Activity

Updated 10/16/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Pisano, PauloCHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICERDirectSell10162026163.061,500244,59011,479,424Form
2Pisano, PauloCHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICERDirectSell9162026173.021,500259,53012,440,138Form
3Pisano, PauloCHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICERDirectSell9012026203.483,000610,44014,935,432Form
4Wittman, Vanessa AmesDirectSell8182026211.0037579,1253,404,063Form
5Millones, Peter JEXECUTIVE VP, GENERAL COUNSELDirectSell8182026207.5950,05010,390,07077,852,864Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Pisano, PauloCHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICERDirectSell10162026163.061,500244,59011,479,424Form
2Pisano, PauloCHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICERDirectSell9162026173.021,500259,53012,440,138Form
3Pisano, PauloCHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICERDirectSell9012026203.483,000610,44014,935,432Form
4Wittman, Vanessa AmesDirectSell8182026211.0037579,1253,404,063Form
5Millones, Peter JEXECUTIVE VP, GENERAL COUNSELDirectSell8182026207.5950,05010,390,07077,852,864Form
6Steenbergen, Ewout LCHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICERDirectSell8132026211.0320,0004,220,51612,618,078Form
7Mylod, Robert J JRAnnox Capital, LLCSell8062026206.701,000206,7003,100,500Form
8Wittman, Vanessa AmesDirectSell7292026192.001,125216,0003,169,536Form
9Millones, Peter JEXECUTIVE VP, GENERAL COUNSELDirectSell5272026163.6762,50010,229,45669,572,577Form
10Wittman, Vanessa AmesDirectSell4212026192.001,125216,0003,081,600Form
11Fogel, Glenn DCEO AND PRESIDENTDirectSell4162026185.3616,7263,100,29455,268,868Form
12Fogel, Glenn DCEO AND PRESIDENTDirectSell31720264292.106692,871,41354,063,261Form
13Fogel, Glenn DCEO AND PRESIDENTDirectSell21820264149.754521,875,68876,948,864Form
14Fogel, Glenn DCEO AND PRESIDENTDirectSell21820264093.725502,251,54477,760,146Form
15Fogel, Glenn DCEO AND PRESIDENTDirectSell21820264043.491040,43578,989,577Form
16Mylod, Robert J JRAnnox Capital, LLCSell20320265105.3640204,2144,288,503Form
17Fogel, Glenn DCEO AND PRESIDENTDirectSell11620265208.0960312,486101,844,265Form
18Fogel, Glenn DCEO AND PRESIDENTDirectSell11620265181.349534,937,816101,631,954Form
19Wittman, Vanessa AmesDirectSell11620265191.151577,8673,566,320Form
20Mylod, Robert J JRAnnox Capital, LLCSell10520265290.3840211,6154,655,536Form
21Fogel, Glenn DCEO AND PRESIDENTDirectSell121620255464.944422,415,502112,402,826Form
22Fogel, Glenn DCEO AND PRESIDENTDirectSell121620255414.535713,091,695113,759,213Form
23Wittman, Vanessa AmesDirectSell121620255362.001580,4303,764,124Form
24Mylod, Robert J JRAnnox Capital, LLCSell120320255000.0040200,0004,600,000Form
25Fogel, Glenn DCEO AND PRESIDENTDirectSell111920255062.25170860,582109,248,328Form
26Fogel, Glenn DCEO AND PRESIDENTDirectSell111920255007.694002,003,074108,922,184Form
27Fogel, Glenn DCEO AND PRESIDENTDirectSell111920254820.354432,135,414106,775,542Form
28Wittman, Vanessa AmesDirectSell111920255030.001575,4503,606,510Form
29Mylod, Robert J JRAnnox Capital, LLCSell111020255000.0040200,0004,800,000Form
30Pisano, PauloCHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICERDirectSell111020255000.002001,000,0007,570,000Form
31Fogel, Glenn DCEO AND PRESIDENTDirectSell101620255254.043882,038,568118,709,788Form
32Fogel, Glenn DCEO AND PRESIDENTDirectSell101620255141.536253,213,454118,162,552Form
33Wittman, Vanessa AmesDirectSell101620255291.981579,3803,873,729Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Nov 6, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd$723.8 Mil11.1%25ADD +20.1%13F
Prevatt Capital Ltd$36.5 Mil9.8%11ADD +18.9%13F
RIT Capital Partners PLC$36.6 Mil9.8%12TRIM -9.4%13F
Voyager Global Management LP$252.6 Mil8.6%8TRIM -7.7%13F
Harvard Management Co Inc$147.1 Mil8.1%17Hold13F
GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd$137.5 Mil7.9%27TRIM -45.5%13F
BloombergSen Inc.$65.0 Mil7.3%27Hold13F
Varenne Capital Partners$27.1 Mil6.7%27ADD +1000.9%13F
L1 Capital International Pty Ltd$99.6 Mil5.9%23Hold13F
Dorsey Asset Management, LLC$69.2 Mil5.5%11Hold13F
Par Capital Management Inc$179.2 Mil5.2%45ADD +73.9%13F
C Partners Holding GmbH$16.2 Mil5.1%7TRIM -27.7%13F
Wedgewood Partners Inc$23.2 Mil4.8%22TRIM -5.2%13F
HS Management Partners, LLC$12.9 Mil4.5%24TRIM -26.1%13F
Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD$313.4 Mil4.4%25TRIM -18.3%13F
Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd$184.3 Mil4.0%32Hold13F
Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ$26.5 Mil3.4%34TRIM -11.9%13F
MayTech Global Investments, LLC$26.2 Mil3.2%23Hold13F
Dundas Partners LLP$38.3 Mil3.1%49ADD +9.6%13F
Benchstone Capital Management LP$23.2 Mil2.7%38ADD +155.3%13F
Fernbridge Capital Management LP$30.9 Mil2.0%17TRIM -30.9%13F
Bender Robert & Associates$7.5 Mil1.8%45Hold13F
Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda.$9.8 Mil1.7%15ADD +2585.0%13F
DSM Capital Partners LLC$96.0 Mil1.7%44Hold13F
Kensico Capital Management Corp$82.4 Mil1.7%20New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Kensico Capital Management Corp$82.4 Mil1.7%20New13F
Bowie Capital Management, LLC$32.2 Mil1.5%29New13F
Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda.$9.8 Mil1.7%15ADD +2585.0%13F
Varenne Capital Partners$27.1 Mil6.7%27ADD +1000.9%13F
Benchstone Capital Management LP$23.2 Mil2.7%38ADD +155.3%13F
Metropolis Capital Ltd$14.0 Mil0.5%16ADD +82.0%13F
Par Capital Management Inc$179.2 Mil5.2%45ADD +73.9%13F
Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd$723.8 Mil11.1%25ADD +20.1%13F
Prevatt Capital Ltd$36.5 Mil9.8%11ADD +18.9%13F
Dundas Partners LLP$38.3 Mil3.1%49ADD +9.6%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Durable Capital Partners LP$97.9 Mil0.9%40ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Aspen Grove Capital, LLC$69.5 Mil12.0%204ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Crosslink Capital Inc$19.9 Mil1.5%20ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Agave Capital Management Ltd$16.1 Mil2.7%23ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Stony Point Capital LLC$15.9 Mil1.2%31ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Firetrail Investments PTY LTD$11.9 Mil3.9%29ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Rovida Investment Management Ltd$5.4 Mil0.7%17ExitedDec 31, 202513F
CTC LLC$18.6 Mil1.5%25TRIM -55.5%Mar 31, 202613F
Lone Pine Capital LLC$10.1 Mil0.1%36TRIM -48.1%Mar 31, 202613F
GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd$137.5 Mil7.9%27TRIM -45.5%Mar 31, 202613F
Fernbridge Capital Management LP$30.9 Mil2.0%17TRIM -30.9%Mar 31, 202613F
C Partners Holding GmbH$16.2 Mil5.1%7TRIM -27.7%Mar 31, 202613F
HS Management Partners, LLC$12.9 Mil4.5%24TRIM -26.1%Mar 31, 202613F
Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD$313.4 Mil4.4%25TRIM -18.3%Mar 31, 202613F
Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ$26.5 Mil3.4%34TRIM -11.9%Mar 31, 202613F
RIT Capital Partners PLC$36.6 Mil9.8%12TRIM -9.4%Mar 31, 202613F
Troy Asset Management Ltd$32.1 Mil1.0%30TRIM -7.9%Mar 31, 202613F
Voyager Global Management LP$252.6 Mil8.6%8TRIM -7.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Wedgewood Partners Inc$23.2 Mil4.8%22TRIM -5.2%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Rothschild & Co Wealth Management UK Ltd$723.8 Mil11.1%25ADD +20.1%13F
Longview Partners (Guernsey) LTD$313.4 Mil4.4%25TRIM -18.3%13F
Voyager Global Management LP$252.6 Mil8.6%8TRIM -7.7%13F
Local Pensions Partnership Investment Ltd$184.3 Mil4.0%32Hold13F
Par Capital Management Inc$179.2 Mil5.2%45ADD +73.9%13F
Harvard Management Co Inc$147.1 Mil8.1%17Hold13F
GUARDCAP ASSET MANAGEMENT Ltd$137.5 Mil7.9%27TRIM -45.5%13F
L1 Capital International Pty Ltd$99.6 Mil5.9%23Hold13F
DSM Capital Partners LLC$96.0 Mil1.7%44Hold13F
Kensico Capital Management Corp$82.4 Mil1.7%20New13F
Dorsey Asset Management, LLC$69.2 Mil5.5%11Hold13F
BloombergSen Inc.$65.0 Mil7.3%27Hold13F
Sanders Capital, LLC$50.4 Mil0.1%44Hold13F
Dundas Partners LLP$38.3 Mil3.1%49ADD +9.6%13F
RIT Capital Partners PLC$36.6 Mil9.8%12TRIM -9.4%13F
Prevatt Capital Ltd$36.5 Mil9.8%11ADD +18.9%13F
Bowie Capital Management, LLC$32.2 Mil1.5%29New13F
Troy Asset Management Ltd$32.1 Mil1.0%30TRIM -7.9%13F
Fernbridge Capital Management LP$30.9 Mil2.0%17TRIM -30.9%13F
Varenne Capital Partners$27.1 Mil6.7%27ADD +1000.9%13F
Quantum Capital Management, LLC / NJ$26.5 Mil3.4%34TRIM -11.9%13F
MayTech Global Investments, LLC$26.2 Mil3.2%23Hold13F
Wedgewood Partners Inc$23.2 Mil4.8%22TRIM -5.2%13F
Benchstone Capital Management LP$23.2 Mil2.7%38ADD +155.3%13F
CTC LLC$18.6 Mil1.5%25TRIM -55.5%13F

BKNG Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

Constructive

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Conviction is constructive based on re-accelerating Q3 room night growth of 7% and a clear strategy to address AI disruption with new products like Vayo. The market appears to be looking through the lowered Q4 guidance. However, a recent revenue decline of -1.3% and margin pressure prevent a more aggressive stance until the growth trajectory is clarified.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Transactional Marketplace

(Number of Bookings) x (Gross Booking Value per Booking) x (Effective Take Rate) Operating leverage from scaling transaction volume over a largely fixed cost base, and efficiency in performance marketing spend.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can AI investments reinforce the network moat and power the 'Connected Trip'?

Evidence suggests the company is successfully pivoting to defend its franchise and capture more of the travel wallet.

Mechanism: Integrating AI like Vayo and expanding the 'Connected Trip' should increase direct bookings and loyalty, driving higher lifetime value. Connected Trip transactions are already growing three times faster than overall transactions.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Q3 room night growth accelerated to 7% year-over-year, up from 5% in Q2.
  • The Genius loyalty program's top tiers account for a high-50% share of room nights.
  • The company launched Vayo, a new AI travel agent, with a planned $100M investment.
  • Supply continues to grow, with properties on Booking.com increasing to 4.7 million.
PRIMARY RISK
Slowing growth and AI disintermediation.

A sharp deceleration, with latest-quarter revenue declining -1.3% and lowered Q4 guidance, suggests the core business is weakening as large technology firms enter the travel space with their own AI agents.

Mechanism: A continued decline in room night growth below the guided 1-3% range for Q4 would confirm the slowdown is structural.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Latest-quarter revenue declined -1.3% year-over-year, a sharp drop from 8% growth in Q2.
  • Q4 2026 guidance for room nights was lowered to 1% to 3% growth.
  • TTM operating margin compressed to 32.8% from 34.5% a year earlier.
  • Operating expenses grew 10.8% TTM, outpacing revenue growth of 8%.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Room Nights7% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026 - AcceleratingThe 7% growth in the latest quarter marks a re-acceleration from 5% in Q2. Management commentary on the earnings call attributed this improvement to stronger international travel originating from Europe and Asia, while domestic travel remained stable.
Gross Bookings10% year-over-year growth in Q3 2026 (11% on a constant currency basis) - AcceleratingThe acceleration in constant currency growth to 11% in Q3 from a stable 8% in the first half of the year reflects both higher room night volume and a modest increase in pricing (Average Daily Rates).
Rental Car Days23 million (Three Months Ended September 30, 2026)Measures the volume of the car rental business, indicating demand for ground transportation services.
Flight Tickets21 million (Three Months Ended September 30, 2026)Measures the volume of the airline ticket business and is a key indicator of the expansion into non-accommodation verticals and the 'Connected Trip' strategy.
Core Investment Debate

AI Pivot vs. Cyclical Slowdown

BULL VIEW

Bulls believe the 11% post-earnings stock rally was right to focus on accelerating Q3 room night growth of 7% and the launch of AI agent Vayo as proof of a durable, innovative franchise.

CORE TENSION

Can the long-term promise of the AI-powered 'Connected Trip' offset the immediate reality of a -1.3% revenue decline and lowered Q4 guidance, which the market has so far ignored?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

The latest evidence favors the bulls, as the market's strong positive reaction to earnings indicates a willingness to look past near-term headwinds and bet on the long-term AI strategy.

BEAR VIEW

Bears argue the -1.3% revenue decline and lowered Q4 guidance are the start of a structural slowdown, and the AI story is a narrative to mask fundamental weakness in a competitive market.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
December 31, 2026
Quarterly Dividend Payment
Watch: A cash dividend of $0.42 per share of common stock is payable to stockholders of record as of December 11, 2026.
1/26/2027
Peer AI Initiatives Gaining Traction
Watch: Updates from META on Muse user growth, engagement, and commerce transaction volume, indicating potential disintermediation.
2/10/2027
Negative Read-Through from Travel Peers
Watch: Commentary from peers on Q4 travel demand trends and their outlook for Q1 2027.
2/16/2027
Earnings Miss on Lowered Guidance
Watch: Whether reported Q4 results meet or miss the lowered guidance bar, and the outlook for Q1 2027.
No set date
Adverse Regulatory Action or Fines
Watch: News of investigations, fines, or mandated business practice changes from regulators, particularly in the EU.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-11-03
Q3 Earnings Beat, Guidance Lowered
Details: The company reported Q3 earnings that beat estimates. However, guidance for Q4 was lowered for key metrics including Room Nights and Gross Bookings Growth.
+11.2%
$153.75 -> $170.97
2026-10-14
New AI Travel Agent Launched
Details: Booking Holdings announced a planned $100M investment in its new company Vayo, a personal AI travel agent.
+5.3%
$157.51 -> $165.80
2026-09-07
Major Institutional Investment Disclosed
Details: First Eagle Investment Management LLC disclosed purchasing a new stake valued at approximately $876.32 million during the second quarter.
-7.6%
$194.66 -> $179.87
2026-08-04
Q2 Earnings Report Beat
Details: The company reported Q2 results. The two-day stock reaction around the earnings call was 7.0% versus 2.0% for the S&P 500.
+7.4%
$192.25 -> $206.52
2026-05-05
AI Booking Integration with Partners
Details: Nextech3D.ai announced an AI-enabled hotel booking integration using inventory from Expedia, Priceline, and Booking.com to extend its event technology platform.
+1.7%
$164.77 -> $167.49
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4% - 6%

NORMAL POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: BKNG trades at roughly 34% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 10% for the S&P 500 (3.4x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
EXPE - Expedia
Direct OTA Competitor

Expedia offers pure-play exposure to the online travel agency model. While its operating margin of 17.4% is lower, its trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 12% has recently outpaced Booking Holdings.

Core Thesis: A bet on a different execution strategy within the same industry, with a potentially different balance of growth and profitability.
META - Meta Platforms
Structural AI Threat/Partner

Meta provides exposure to the foundational AI models that could disrupt travel booking. Its 'Muse' personal agent is already live, with shopping as a key use case, representing a potential long-term threat or partnership opportunity.

Core Thesis: An investment in the underlying technology platform that could either disintermediate or enable the next generation of online travel.
How Is The Market Pricing BKNG?

Booking Holdings is a global travel toll road, leveraging its immense scale and network effects to build an integrated 'Connected Trip' ecosystem while navigating the disruptive potential of AI by investing in its own agentic capabilities.

The company is transitioning from a pure accommodations booking engine to a comprehensive travel platform. This 'Connected Trip' strategy, enabled by a shift to a merchant payment model and expansion into flights and other verticals, aims to capture more of the travel wallet and increase customer loyalty through its Genius program. While facing threats from new AI-powered competitors, the company is actively developing its own AI agents (Vayo, a recently discussed product) and leveraging AI to improve efficiency, betting that its direct relationships with millions of suppliers provide a durable moat.

What will confirm the thesis

Sustained growth in 'Connected Trip' transactions, continued market share gains in the U.S., successful scaling of new AI products like Vayo, and growth in direct bookings outpacing paid channels.

What will damage the thesis

Evidence of significant booking volume shifting to new AI-native travel agents or large tech platforms like Google and Meta, a sustained decline in marketing ROI, or major regulatory actions that limit its business model.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Short-term fluctuations in quarterly room night growth due to specific geopolitical events or holiday timing; single-quarter marketing deleverage if tied to opportunistic investment.

Repricing Catalyst

The market's positive reaction to the Q3 2026 earnings report, where the stock jumped 11% despite the company lowering its Q4 guidance, suggesting investors are focused on strong underlying execution and the long-term AI strategy over near-term headwinds.

What BKNG Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q3 2026
BKNG Evolution: Price Return by Era
· Global Accommodations Aggregator (Agency Model)
The company built its scale primarily through its Booking.com brand, acting as an agent connecting travelers with a vast inventory of accommodations, especially independent hotels in Europe. The model was capital-light, earning commissions from hotels after a guest's stay.
Ongoing since circa 2024-2025 · The 'Connected Trip' and Merchant Model Shift
+56%
The company is strategically shifting from a pure agency model to a merchant model, where it handles payments directly. This shift is a key enabler for its 'Connected Trip' vision, which aims to seamlessly integrate multiple travel verticals (flights, cars, attractions) into a single, personalized itinerary, thereby increasing customer loyalty and share of wallet. This era is also marked by significant investment in AI to enhance the user experience and operational efficiency.
Market Appears To Be Skeptical Of Core Thesis
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Lagging the market on the 63D window, but 'relative strength' is beginning to stabilize; watch for inflection. Volume and momentum are clearly negative. OBV (on-balance volume) and volume character point to institutional exit. Earnings history is mildly supportive. The reaction or drift are positive but not both at full conviction.
① Structure
-4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-2
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+1
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-5 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Potential Bottoming · Death Cross ▾
2 Momentum Mixed ▾
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Recovering Relative Strength ▾
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Distribution ▾
5 Volatility Normal ▾
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising ▾
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent ▾
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾
Core Cache Last Updated: 11/5/2026