Amazon.com (AMZN)
Market Price (8/2/2026): $270.29 | Market Cap: $2.9 TrilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Amazon.com (AMZN)
Market Price (8/2/2026): $270.29Market Cap: $2.9 TrilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 161 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cloud Computing, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.2%, Dist 3Y High is -1.2% | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5% Key risksAMZN key risks include [1] escalating global regulatory scrutiny targeting its marketplace and labor practices, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%, CFO LTM is 161 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 35% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Cloud Computing, E-commerce & Digital Retail, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.2%, Dist 3Y High is -1.2% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.5% |
| Key risksAMZN key risks include [1] escalating global regulatory scrutiny targeting its marketplace and labor practices, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 8/1/2026
Amazon.com (AMZN) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Elevated Capital Expenditure and Impact on Free Cash Flow. Amazon's stock movement was influenced by its aggressive capital expenditure (CapEx) strategy, primarily for AI infrastructure. The company raised its full-year 2026 CapEx forecast to approximately $220 billion, an increase from a previous projection of $200 billion. This significant investment, while aimed at driving future growth in cloud computing and AI, resulted in a negative free cash flow of $7.6 billion over the trailing twelve months, causing investor scrutiny despite strong operating income.
2. Robust AWS Reacceleration Driven by AI Demand. A core upward driver for the stock was the substantial reacceleration of Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue growth. In fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), AWS revenue surged 37% year-over-year to $42.2 billion, marking its fastest growth rate in 18 quarters and exceeding analyst projections. This strong performance was largely attributed to increasing demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, including a significant commitment from AI startup Anthropic to purchase over $100 billion in computing resources from AWS over the next decade.
Show more
Amazon.com (AMZN) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Elevated Capital Expenditure and Impact on Free Cash Flow. Amazon's stock movement was influenced by its aggressive capital expenditure (CapEx) strategy, primarily for AI infrastructure. The company raised its full-year 2026 CapEx forecast to approximately $220 billion, an increase from a previous projection of $200 billion. This significant investment, while aimed at driving future growth in cloud computing and AI, resulted in a negative free cash flow of $7.6 billion over the trailing twelve months, causing investor scrutiny despite strong operating income.
2. Robust AWS Reacceleration Driven by AI Demand. A core upward driver for the stock was the substantial reacceleration of Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue growth. In fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), AWS revenue surged 37% year-over-year to $42.2 billion, marking its fastest growth rate in 18 quarters and exceeding analyst projections. This strong performance was largely attributed to increasing demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, including a significant commitment from AI startup Anthropic to purchase over $100 billion in computing resources from AWS over the next decade.
Show more
Updated on 8/1/2026
Amazon.com (AMZN) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Elevated Capital Expenditure and Impact on Free Cash Flow. Amazon's stock movement was influenced by its aggressive capital expenditure (CapEx) strategy, primarily for AI infrastructure. The company raised its full-year 2026 CapEx forecast to approximately $220 billion, an increase from a previous projection of $200 billion. This significant investment, while aimed at driving future growth in cloud computing and AI, resulted in a negative free cash flow of $7.6 billion over the trailing twelve months, causing investor scrutiny despite strong operating income.
2. Robust AWS Reacceleration Driven by AI Demand. A core upward driver for the stock was the substantial reacceleration of Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue growth. In fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), AWS revenue surged 37% year-over-year to $42.2 billion, marking its fastest growth rate in 18 quarters and exceeding analyst projections. This strong performance was largely attributed to increasing demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, including a significant commitment from AI startup Anthropic to purchase over $100 billion in computing resources from AWS over the next decade.
3. Mixed Investor Reaction to Fiscal Q2 Earnings Report. Although Amazon reported a substantial beat on both revenue and diluted earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal Q2 2026, the market's reaction was tempered by underlying details and forward guidance. The reported EPS of $5.75 significantly topped the consensus estimate of $1.82, but this included a $53.4 billion pre-tax non-operating gain from Amazon's investment in Anthropic. While operating income still grew a strong 43% to $27.5 billion, the inflated headline EPS coupled with Q3 2026 revenue guidance of $197 billion to $202 billion, which fell below analyst expectations, created a mixed signal that constrained sustained upward momentum.
Show less
Amazon.com (AMZN) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Elevated Capital Expenditure and Impact on Free Cash Flow. Amazon's stock movement was influenced by its aggressive capital expenditure (CapEx) strategy, primarily for AI infrastructure. The company raised its full-year 2026 CapEx forecast to approximately $220 billion, an increase from a previous projection of $200 billion. This significant investment, while aimed at driving future growth in cloud computing and AI, resulted in a negative free cash flow of $7.6 billion over the trailing twelve months, causing investor scrutiny despite strong operating income.
2. Robust AWS Reacceleration Driven by AI Demand. A core upward driver for the stock was the substantial reacceleration of Amazon Web Services (AWS) revenue growth. In fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 30, 2026), AWS revenue surged 37% year-over-year to $42.2 billion, marking its fastest growth rate in 18 quarters and exceeding analyst projections. This strong performance was largely attributed to increasing demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, including a significant commitment from AI startup Anthropic to purchase over $100 billion in computing resources from AWS over the next decade.
3. Mixed Investor Reaction to Fiscal Q2 Earnings Report. Although Amazon reported a substantial beat on both revenue and diluted earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal Q2 2026, the market's reaction was tempered by underlying details and forward guidance. The reported EPS of $5.75 significantly topped the consensus estimate of $1.82, but this included a $53.4 billion pre-tax non-operating gain from Amazon's investment in Anthropic. While operating income still grew a strong 43% to $27.5 billion, the inflated headline EPS coupled with Q3 2026 revenue guidance of $197 billion to $202 billion, which fell below analyst expectations, created a mixed signal that constrained sustained upward momentum.
Show less
Holding a concentrated position? Know your true downside before the momentum shifts.
Protect Your Wealth →
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.5% change in AMZN stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 42.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 265.06 | 271.58 | 2.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 742,776 | 775,680 | 4.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.2% | 17.4% | 42.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 31.4 | 21.6 | -31.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10,743 | 10,769 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 2.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.9% | 45.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.9% | 72.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.5% change in AMZN stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 57.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 239.30 | 271.58 | 13.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 691,330 | 775,680 | 12.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 11.1% | 17.4% | 57.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.4 | 21.6 | -35.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10,674 | 10,769 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.5% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 13.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | 51.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.0% | 72.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 16.0% change in AMZN stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 72.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 234.11 | 271.58 | 16.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 650,313 | 775,680 | 19.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.1% | 17.4% | 72.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.6 | 21.6 | -42.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10,603 | 10,769 | -1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 16.0% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 16.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.2% | 55.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 5.5% | 72.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 103.2% change in AMZN stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 2031.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 133.68 | 271.58 | 103.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 524,897 | 775,680 | 47.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.8% | 17.4% | 2031.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 319.1 | 21.6 | -93.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 10,250 | 10,769 | -4.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 103.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 103.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 68.9% | 66.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 36.7% | 74.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AMZN Return | 2% | -50% | 81% | 44% | 5% | 2% | 45% |
| Peers Return | 31% | -37% | 78% | 54% | 25% | -8% | 162% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AMZN Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 83% | 75% | 42% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 35% | 70% | 72% | 55% | 37% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AMZN Max Drawdown | -15% | -52% | -20% | -19% | -31% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -14% | -50% | -16% | -15% | -27% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MSFT, GOOGL, WMT, META, NFLX. See AMZN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/31/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AMZN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -19.4% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.1% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 18 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 598 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 130 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.2% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 72 days | 6 days |
In The Past
Amazon.com's stock fell -26.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 35.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
| Event | AMZN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -40.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.6% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 598 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -31.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 130 days | 105 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.2% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 165.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Amazon.com's stock fell -26.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 35.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Amazon.com (AMZN)
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) is a global technology company known for its extensive e-commerce operations, cloud computing services, and consumer electronic devices. The company primarily engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions through its online and physical stores across North America and internationally. A significant part of its retail business involves selling merchandise directly and enabling numerous third-party sellers to offer their products on Amazon’s platform, serving a vast individual consumer base.
Beyond its retail footprint, Amazon is a leading provider of electronic devices, manufacturing products such as Kindle e-readers, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Ring smart home devices, and Echo smart speakers. It also operates Amazon Web Services (AWS), a major cloud computing platform that delivers a comprehensive suite of services including compute, storage, databases, analytics, and machine learning solutions to developers, enterprises, and content creators worldwide. Additionally, Amazon offers programs that support authors, musicians, filmmakers, and app developers in publishing and selling their content, complemented by its Amazon Prime membership program which provides free shipping, streaming media access, and other benefits to consumers.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Amazon.com:
The **Walmart** for the internet, selling virtually everything online.
Like **Netflix** for digital content, combined with a fast shipping subscription service.
A massive cloud computing provider like **Microsoft** or **IBM**, offering foundational internet infrastructure to businesses worldwide.
AI Analysis | Feedback
```html
- Online & Physical Retail: Amazon sells consumer products and merchandise directly and from third-party sellers through its online and physical stores.
- Electronic Devices: The company manufactures and sells various electronic devices, including Kindle e-readers, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Ring security products, and Echo smart speakers.
- Cloud Computing Services (AWS): Amazon Web Services provides a comprehensive suite of cloud services, encompassing compute, storage, database, analytics, machine learning, and more for businesses.
- Amazon Prime Membership: This subscription program offers benefits such as free expedited shipping, access to streaming movies and series, and other exclusive services.
- Seller & Content Creator Programs: Amazon provides platforms and services enabling third-party sellers to offer products and allowing authors, musicians, filmmakers, and developers to publish and sell content.
- Media Content Production: The company develops and produces original media content, including movies and series for its streaming services.
- Fulfillment & Advertising Services: Amazon offers fulfillment services for inventory storage and shipping, alongside advertising solutions for brands and businesses.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Amazon.com (AMZN) primarily sells to individuals across several categories. While the company also has a significant business-to-business segment through Amazon Web Services (AWS) and services for third-party sellers, its core retail operations, device sales, and subscription services are largely directed at individual consumers.
The major categories of customers Amazon serves include:
- General Consumers/Shoppers: Individuals who purchase a vast array of physical products (ranging from electronics and books to groceries and and apparel) through Amazon's online marketplace and physical stores. This category also includes subscribers to the Amazon Prime membership program, who benefit from faster shipping, exclusive deals, and access to various digital content services.
- Digital Media Consumers: Individuals who utilize Amazon's digital content offerings. This encompasses viewers of Amazon Prime Video for movies and series, listeners of Amazon Music, readers of Kindle e-books, and users engaging with Twitch streams and other digital content platforms provided by Amazon.
- Device Owners: Individuals who purchase and use Amazon's proprietary electronic devices. This category includes owners of Kindle e-readers, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Echo smart speakers, and Ring smart home security devices, all designed for individual use and integration into their daily lives.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Intel Corporation (symbol: INTC)
- NVIDIA Corporation (symbol: NVDA)
- Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. Ltd. (symbol: TPE: 2317)
- Boeing Co. (symbol: BA)
- Visa Inc. (symbol: V)
- Mastercard Inc. (symbol: MA)
- International Paper Co. (symbol: IP)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Andy Jassy, President and Chief Executive Officer
Andy Jassy joined Amazon in 1997 as a marketing manager and co-founded Amazon Web Services (AWS) in 2003, serving as its CEO from April 2016 until July 2021. He held various leadership roles across Amazon before founding AWS. Before Amazon, Jassy co-founded a short-lived startup and worked as a project manager for a collectibles company. He earned an A.B. in government and an MBA from Harvard University.
Brian T. Olsavsky, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Brian T. Olsavsky has served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Amazon since June 2015, having joined the company in April 2002. Prior to this role, he was Vice President, Finance for the Global Consumer Business from 2011 to 2015. His earlier career included financial and operational roles at Union Carbide, BF Goodrich, and seven years at Fisher Scientific. Olsavsky holds a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from Penn State University and an MBA in Finance from Carnegie Mellon University’s Tepper School of Business.
Doug Herrington, Chief Executive Officer, Worldwide Amazon Stores
Doug Herrington assumed the role of CEO of Worldwide Amazon Stores in July 2022. He joined Amazon in 2005 to launch the Amazon consumables business and led teams that developed services like Subscribe and Save, Amazon Fresh, Amazon Business, Alexa Shopping, and Buy with Prime. Before Amazon, Herrington was a management consultant at Booz Allen Hamilton. He also co-founded and served as CEO of KeepMedia, a digital news service, and held leadership positions at the grocery delivery startup Webvan. He earned an MBA from Harvard Business School and an AB in Economics from Princeton University.
Matt Garman, Chief Executive Officer, Amazon Web Services
Matt Garman became CEO of Amazon Web Services (AWS) in June 2024. He joined Amazon in 2006 (or as an intern in 2005) and was AWS's first product manager, contributing to the launch of many core AWS services. His previous roles at AWS include Senior Vice President, AWS Sales, Marketing, and Global Services, as well as leadership in product management, engineering, and operations for compute and storage services. Garman holds a B.S. and M.S. in Industrial Engineering from Stanford University and an MBA from Northwestern University Kellogg School of Management.
David Zapolsky, Senior Vice President, Chief Global Affairs & Legal Officer
David Zapolsky serves as Amazon’s Senior Vice President, Chief Global Affairs & Legal Officer.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Amazon.com (AMZN) faces several significant risks to its business, primarily stemming from its dominant market position and the dynamic nature of the e-commerce and cloud computing industries.
- Regulatory and Antitrust Scrutiny: Amazon's vast scale and market power in both e-commerce and cloud services have made it a frequent target for antitrust investigations and regulatory actions globally. Governments and regulatory bodies in the U.S., EU, UK, and other regions are actively scrutinizing Amazon's business practices, particularly concerning its treatment of third-party sellers, alleged anti-discounting tactics, and potential for self-preferencing its own products and services over competitors. These investigations can lead to significant fines, forced changes in business models, and even potential divestitures, which could fundamentally alter Amazon's operations and profitability. For instance, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and 17 state attorneys general filed a major antitrust lawsuit against Amazon in September 2023, alleging the company illegally maintains monopolies in online superstore and online marketplace services. Separately, the FTC secured a $2.5 billion settlement with Amazon in September 2025 over allegations of enrolling millions of consumers in Prime subscriptions without consent and making cancellation difficult.
- Intense Competition Across Segments: Despite its market leadership, Amazon faces robust competition in its core business areas. In e-commerce, it competes with established retailers like Walmart and Target, as well as rapidly growing disruptive newcomers such as Temu and Shein. The threat of Amazon directly competing with its own third-party sellers by developing similar, often cheaper, private-label products is also a significant concern for many businesses utilizing its platform. In the cloud computing sector, Amazon Web Services (AWS) holds a leading market share but faces aggressive competition from well-funded rivals like Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud Platform. This intense competition across all segments can lead to pricing pressures, impact market share, and necessitate continuous heavy investment in innovation and infrastructure, potentially affecting profit margins.
- Macroeconomic Headwinds and Consumer Spending Volatility: Amazon's retail business is highly susceptible to broader macroeconomic conditions, including inflation, interest rate changes, and overall consumer spending patterns. Economic downturns, inflationary pressures, and reduced consumer discretionary spending can directly impact sales volume and revenue in its North American and International retail segments. While AWS is a more resilient segment, enterprise spending on cloud services could also be affected during prolonged economic uncertainty. Rising operational costs, such as wages, shipping, and energy, further squeeze profit margins, even as Amazon navigates these economic fluctuations.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- The emergence of ultra-low-cost, direct-from-manufacturer e-commerce platforms (e.g., Temu, Shein) which offer a different supply chain model, often with significantly lower prices, challenging Amazon's third-party marketplace and value proposition in certain retail categories.
- Increasing global regulatory scrutiny and antitrust actions that threaten to impose significant operational changes, fines, or restrictions on Amazon's business practices across its e-commerce and cloud segments.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) operates across several large and growing addressable markets globally and in North America. Here are the estimated market sizes for its main products and services:
E-commerce (Retail Sale of Consumer Products)
- The global e-commerce market was valued at approximately USD 21.62 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 83.19 trillion by 2035, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.43% from 2026 to 2035. Other estimates place the global market at USD 33.8 trillion in 2025, growing to USD 243.4 trillion by 2034 with a CAGR of 24.54% from 2026-2034.
- The North America e-commerce market was valued at USD 1.45 trillion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 2.51 trillion by 2031, with a CAGR of 9.57% during the forecast period (2026-2031). North America accounted for over 36% of the global market in 2023.
- Specifically, the North America B2C e-commerce market was valued at USD 1,354.45 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3,015.39 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 9.3% from 2025 to 2033.
- The North America B2B e-commerce market is valued at USD 1,250 billion.
Amazon Web Services (AWS - Cloud Computing)
- The global cloud computing market size was valued at USD 736.10 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to register a CAGR of 20.8% from 2025 to 2034. Another report estimates the global market at USD 943.65 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 3,349.61 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 16.0% from 2026 to 2033.
- The North America cloud computing market was valued at USD 353.56 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 1,092.70 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 15.20% during the forecast period. North America held a 39.0% share of the global cloud computing market in 2024.
Electronic Devices (Kindle, Fire tablets, Fire TVs, Rings, Echo - Smart Home Devices)
- The global smart home device market was valued at USD 127.80 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 537.27 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 27.0% from 2025 to 2030. Other estimates indicate a global market size of USD 163.30 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 278.32 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 5.62%.
- The North America smart home device market accounted for a leading global market share of 39.45% in 2025, with a market size of USD 70.38 billion in 2026. The U.S. smart home market was worth over USD 50.6 billion in 2024.
Digital Content and Publishing (Kindle Direct Publishing, media content)
- The global digital publishing market size was valued at USD 204.83 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 470.09 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 9.67% during the forecast period (2026-2033). Another source states the market was valued at USD 163.89 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 279.68 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 6.2% during the forecast period.
- North America was the largest region in the digital publishing market in 2025, accounting for 36.12% of the global market share.
Subscription Services (Amazon Prime - streaming of movies and series)
- The global video on demand (VOD) market was valued at approximately USD 175.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 528.9 billion by 2034. Another report estimates the global market size at USD 133.44 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 477.04 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 14.90%.
- The global subscription video on demand (SVOD) market size was estimated at USD 95.50 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.6% from 2025 to 2030.
- The North America subscription video on demand market accounted for a significant share of over 44% in 2024. The U.S. subscription video on demand industry dominated with a share of over 67% in 2024.
Advertising
- The global digital advertising market size was estimated at USD 488.40 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1,164.25 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 15.4% from 2025 to 2030. Another source estimates the global market at USD 650.00 billion in 2025, expected to exceed USD 1,593 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 9.38% from 2026 to 2035.
- North America dominated the digital advertising market with a share of over 31% in 2024. The North America digital advertising market generated a revenue of USD 153,063.9 million in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 339,261.6 million by 2030, with a CAGR of 14% from 2025 to 2030. The US market is projected to reach USD 243,243.1 million by 2030.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Amazon.com (AMZN) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS) driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI): Amazon's cloud computing division, AWS, is projected to be a significant driver of future revenue growth. AWS reported a 24% year-over-year increase in revenue in Q4 2025, reaching $35.6 billion. Analysts expect AWS annual revenue growth to be around 30% over the next three years, surpassing the broader Wall Street projection of 25%. This acceleration is largely fueled by the surging demand for AI computing and ongoing migration of enterprise infrastructure to the cloud. Amazon is making substantial capital expenditures in AWS data centers, including AI infrastructure and custom silicon development, with plans to double power capacity by 2027. The company's cloud backlog also provides substantial revenue visibility, having reached $200 billion by Q3 2025 and $244 billion by Q4 2025.
- Expansion of Advertising Services: Amazon's advertising segment is rapidly growing and is expected to continue contributing significantly to revenue. Advertising services generated $56.2 billion in revenue in 2024, a 20% year-over-year increase, and $21.3 billion in Q4 2025, up 22% year-over-year. CEO Andy Jassy noted a $69 billion annual revenue run rate for the advertising business in Q4 2024. Projections suggest ad revenue could climb to $80-90 billion within the next 2-3 years. A key contributor to this growth is the introduction of ads on Prime Video in January 2024, which is forecast to increase ad revenue from $433 million in 2024 to $806 million in 2025. The ad-supported version of Prime Video reached over 130 million US consumers monthly in 2025, with an audience totaling 315 million viewers in Q4 2025.
- Growth and Enhancement of Amazon Prime Membership and Offerings: The Amazon Prime membership program remains a crucial driver by fostering customer loyalty and increasing shopping frequency. Paid US Amazon Prime subscribers are projected to exceed 128 million by the end of 2025, building on a base of over 240 million paid members globally. Amazon's strategies include offering flexible pricing plans (annual, monthly, quarterly, and "Lite" options in some markets) and enhancing benefits such as faster delivery, exclusive deals, and expanded digital content like Prime Video. The company's continued investment in innovative customer experiences, including AI-driven personalization and improvements in logistics for quicker delivery, further solidifies Prime's value proposition.
- International Expansion and Retail Optimization: Amazon's international segment is poised for continued growth. In 2025, the International segment sales increased by 13% year-over-year. The company is focused on capturing new audiences and fostering brand loyalty in emerging markets. Strategies include investments in rural markets and offering sharper prices in its international stores business. These efforts, combined with advancements in customer experience and optimized supply chain logistics, are expected to contribute to the overall retail segment's revenue growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- In March 2022, Amazon's board approved an expanded share-repurchase authorization of $10 billion, replacing a previous $5 billion authorization.
- As of December 31, 2025, the company had repurchased approximately $3.88 billion worth of shares under the March 2022 authorization.
Share Issuance
- Amazon's common stock increased from 106 million shares in fiscal year 2021 to 112 million shares in fiscal year 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In 2021, Amazon acquired Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) for $8.45 billion, significantly boosting its content library for Prime Video.
- The company acquired One Medical Group in July 2022 for approximately $3.9 billion.
- Amazon has committed significant international investments, including a $35 billion investment in India by 2030 and over $23 billion for new AWS cloud regions across Asia-Pacific and Latin America.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were $61.053 billion in 2021, $63.645 billion in 2022, $52.729 billion in 2023, $82.999 billion in 2024, and $131.8 billion in 2025.
- Amazon anticipates investing approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, primarily focused on artificial intelligence (AI), chips, robotics, and low earth orbit satellites.
- The capital expenditure is also directed towards expanding cloud computing infrastructure for AWS and increasing its rural delivery network.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 313.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 2,170.2 |
| Rev LTM | 388,853 |
| Op Inc LTM | 90,320 |
| FCF LTM | 26,764 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 31,845 |
| CFO LTM | 145,852 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 116,919 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 15.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 18.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 18.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 31.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 31.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 29.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2,170.2 |
| P/S | 6.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 25.8 |
| P/EBIT | 16.8 |
| P/E | 21.8 |
| P/CFO | 20.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 95.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -12.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 36.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | 426,305 | 387,497 | 352,828 | 315,880 | 279,833 |
| International | 161,894 | 142,906 | 131,200 | 118,007 | 127,787 |
| Amazon Web Services (AWS) | 128,725 | 107,556 | 90,757 | 80,096 | 62,202 |
| Total | 716,924 | 637,959 | 574,785 | 513,983 | 469,822 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon Web Services (AWS) | 45,606 | 39,834 | 24,631 | 22,841 | 18,532 |
| North America | 29,619 | 24,967 | 14,877 | -2,847 | 7,271 |
| International | 4,750 | 3,792 | -2,656 | -7,746 | -924 |
| Total | 79,975 | 68,593 | 36,852 | 12,248 | 24,879 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon Web Services (AWS) | 252,588 | 155,953 | 108,533 | 88,491 | 63,835 |
| Corporate | 247,818 | 189,334 | 153,574 | 124,250 | 137,476 |
| North America | 235,652 | 210,120 | 196,029 | 185,268 | 161,255 |
| International | 81,984 | 69,487 | 69,718 | 64,666 | 57,983 |
| Total | 818,042 | 624,894 | 527,854 | 462,675 | 420,549 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $271.58 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 2,924.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/16/1997 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -1.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $245.54 | $234.70 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | 10.6% | 15.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 43.7% | 34.3% |
| Downside Capture | 121.42 | 153.11 |
| Upside Capture | 107.54 | 146.66 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 55.1% | 59.1% |
AMZN Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.37 | 1.59 | 1.44 | 1.38 | 1.51 | 1.40 |
| Up Beta | 3.00 | 2.59 | 2.32 | 1.24 | 1.07 | 1.24 |
| Down Beta | 2.28 | 1.29 | 1.43 | 1.61 | 1.84 | 1.58 |
| Up Capture | 336% | 151% | 113% | 148% | 185% | 318% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 19 | 30 | 64 | 135 | 393 |
| Down Capture | 112% | 129% | 119% | 124% | 134% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 24 | 33 | 62 | 117 | 356 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMZN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 18.1% | 35.2% | 0.52 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.6% | 19.5% | 0.11 | 72.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.8% | 12.9% | 1.07 | 55.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 28.1% | 0.74 | 5.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 30.2% | 19.7% | 1.22 | -5.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.7% | 13.9% | 0.69 | 9.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.8% | 43.0% | -1.34 | 22.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMZN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 7.9% | 36.4% | 0.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.7% | 24.1% | 0.20 | 79.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 70.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.5% | 0.75 | 6.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 19.5% | 0.35 | 9.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 37.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.4% | 53.3% | 0.43 | 30.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AMZN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 21.8% | 33.0% | 0.68 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.2% | 22.1% | 0.50 | 75.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 65.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 6.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 14.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 34.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.6% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 18.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | 15.3% | ||
| 4/29/2026 | 0.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| 2/5/2026 | -5.6% | -10.4% | -4.1% |
| 10/30/2025 | 9.6% | 9.1% | 5.2% |
| 7/31/2025 | -8.3% | -4.7% | -2.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.1% | 1.0% | 8.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | -4.1% | -3.5% | -18.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.2% | 12.7% | 13.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.5% | -6.2% | -7.1% |
| Max Positive | 15.3% | 16.6% | 23.6% |
| Max Negative | -14.0% | -19.5% | -20.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | 15.3% | ||
| 4/29/2026 | 0.8% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| 2/5/2026 | -5.6% | -10.4% | -4.1% |
| 10/30/2025 | 9.6% | 9.1% | 5.2% |
| 7/31/2025 | -8.3% | -4.7% | -2.2% |
| 5/1/2025 | -0.1% | 1.0% | 8.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | -4.1% | -3.5% | -18.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | 6.2% | 12.7% | 13.0% |
| 8/1/2024 | -8.8% | -9.9% | -3.0% |
| 4/30/2024 | 2.3% | 7.9% | 2.5% |
| 2/1/2024 | 7.9% | 6.6% | 11.5% |
| 10/26/2023 | 6.8% | 15.5% | 23.6% |
| 8/3/2023 | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% |
| 4/27/2023 | -4.0% | -5.3% | 9.4% |
| 2/2/2023 | -8.4% | -13.0% | -17.0% |
| 10/27/2022 | -6.8% | -19.5% | -15.3% |
| 7/28/2022 | 10.4% | 16.6% | 6.9% |
| 4/28/2022 | -14.0% | -19.5% | -20.4% |
| 2/3/2022 | 13.5% | 14.5% | -1.0% |
| 10/28/2021 | -2.2% | 0.9% | 3.3% |
| 7/29/2021 | -7.6% | -6.2% | -7.0% |
| 4/29/2021 | -0.1% | -4.8% | -7.2% |
| 2/2/2021 | -2.0% | -2.2% | -11.9% |
| 10/29/2020 | -5.4% | 3.5% | -1.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.5% | -6.2% | -7.1% |
| Max Positive | 15.3% | 16.6% | 23.6% |
| Max Negative | -14.0% | -19.5% | -20.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/31/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/02/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/02/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/28/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/04/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/03/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/01/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 01/31/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/25/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/31/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/30/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Revenue | 197.00 Bil | 199.50 Bil | 202.00 Bil | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 196.50 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Revenue Growth | 9.0% | 10.5% | 12.0% | -7.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 17.5% for Q2 2026 | |
| Q3 2026 Operating Income | 22.50 Bil | 24.50 Bil | 26.50 Bil | 11.4% | Raised | Guidance: 22.00 Bil for Q2 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 173.50 Bil | 176.00 Bil | 178.50 Bil | -16.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 209.50 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Revenue Growth | 11.0% | 13.0% | 15.0% | 1.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 11.5% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Operating Income | 16.50 Bil | 19.00 Bil | 21.50 Bil | -19.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 23.50 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 200.00 Bil | ||||||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Revenue | 173.50 Bil | 176.00 Bil | 178.50 Bil | -16.0% | Lower New | Guidance: 209.50 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Revenue Growth | 11.0% | 13.0% | 15.0% | 1.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 11.5% for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Operating Income | 16.50 Bil | 19.00 Bil | 21.50 Bil | -19.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 23.50 Bil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 200.00 Bil | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/30/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Revenue | 206.00 Bil | 209.50 Bil | 213.00 Bil | 18.5% | Higher New | Guidance: 176.75 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Revenue Growth | 10.0% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 0 | Same New | Guidance: 11.5% for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Operating Income | 21.00 Bil | 23.50 Bil | 26.00 Bil | 30.6% | Higher New | Guidance: 18.00 Bil for Q3 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/2/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 239.77 | 1,000 | 239,770 | 116,175,039 | Form |
| 2 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 266.19 | 1,000 | 266,190 | 129,242,432 | Form |
| 3 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 268.53 | 9,270 | 2,489,273 | 11,060,751 | Form |
| 4 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 263.40 | 15,467 | 4,073,956 | 3,729,433 | Form |
| 5 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 263.42 | 20,000 | 5,268,342 | 581,036,490 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 239.77 | 1,000 | 239,770 | 116,175,039 | Form |
| 2 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 266.19 | 1,000 | 266,190 | 129,242,432 | Form |
| 3 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 268.53 | 9,270 | 2,489,273 | 11,060,751 | Form |
| 4 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 263.40 | 15,467 | 4,073,956 | 3,729,433 | Form |
| 5 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 263.42 | 20,000 | 5,268,342 | 581,036,490 | Form |
| 6 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 262.39 | 6,370 | 1,671,439 | 127,660,954 | Form |
| 7 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 263.43 | 6,180 | 1,627,979 | 13,292,525 | Form |
| 8 | Reynolds, Shelley | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 262.38 | 2,363 | 620,003 | 31,427,840 | Form |
| 9 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 262.66 | 11,475 | 3,013,973 | 3,002,153 | Form |
| 10 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 5192026 | 262.59 | 3,742 | 982,602 | 125,246,814 | Form |
| 11 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 5062026 | 275.00 | 31,352 | 8,621,800 | 598,335,650 | Form |
| 12 | Rubinstein, Jonathan | Direct | Sell | 5042026 | 273.02 | 3,706 | 1,011,812 | 20,462,303 | Form | |
| 13 | Rubinstein, Jonathan | Direct | Sell | 4282026 | 260.00 | 3,849 | 1,000,740 | 20,450,040 | Form | |
| 14 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 4212026 | 255.00 | 31,000 | 7,905,000 | 562,815,090 | Form |
| 15 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 4162026 | 245.00 | 20,500 | 5,022,500 | 122,465,945 | Form |
| 16 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 4032026 | 210.50 | 1,000 | 210,500 | 109,535,990 | Form |
| 17 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 204.25 | 1,000 | 204,250 | 106,487,984 | Form |
| 18 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.43 | 10,649 | 2,187,624 | 8,461,662 | Form |
| 19 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.18 | 19,872 | 4,077,378 | 459,221,638 | Form |
| 20 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.22 | 17,751 | 3,642,842 | 1,930,084 | Form |
| 21 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.35 | 7,100 | 1,457,990 | 10,645,178 | Form |
| 22 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.82 | 6,835 | 1,406,785 | 107,512,762 | Form |
| 23 | Reynolds, Shelley | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 205.90 | 2,695 | 554,892 | 24,662,327 | Form |
| 24 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 198.37 | 4,784 | 948,990 | 101,585,756 | Form |
| 25 | Alexander, Keith Brian | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 203.88 | 900 | 183,492 | 1,278,328 | Form | |
| 26 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 208.00 | 1,000 | 208,000 | 105,026,272 | Form |
| 27 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 12032025 | 233.22 | 2,500 | 583,050 | 117,993,927 | Form |
| 28 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 222.49 | 13,570 | 3,019,189 | 9,164,363 | Form |
| 29 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.94 | 19,872 | 4,310,952 | 479,061,908 | Form |
| 30 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.90 | 17,768 | 3,853,946 | 1,360,637 | Form |
| 31 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.94 | 7,100 | 1,540,277 | 11,879,655 | Form |
| 32 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.40 | 6,835 | 1,479,098 | 110,025,420 | Form |
| 33 | Reynolds, Shelley | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 216.41 | 2,695 | 583,222 | 25,921,439 | Form |
| 34 | Huttenlocher, Daniel P | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 226.61 | 1,237 | 280,317 | 5,925,398 | Form | |
| 35 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 232.71 | 4,784 | 1,113,263 | 115,929,698 | Form |
| 36 | Alexander, Keith Brian | Direct | Sell | 11182025 | 233.00 | 900 | 209,700 | 1,670,610 | Form | |
| 37 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 255.44 | 2,500 | 638,600 | 125,422,828 | Form |
| 38 | Rubinstein, Jonathan | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 250.03 | 8,173 | 2,043,495 | 20,009,901 | Form | |
| 39 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 250.03 | 22,000 | 5,500,660 | 123,391,555 | Form |
| 40 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 10032025 | 217.10 | 2,500 | 542,750 | 111,916,570 | Form |
| 41 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 9042025 | 223.49 | 2,500 | 558,725 | 115,769,384 | Form |
| 42 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 222.76 | 13,570 | 3,022,853 | 9,825,944 | Form |
| 43 | Jassy, Andrew R | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 221.58 | 19,872 | 4,403,259 | 482,714,826 | Form |
| 44 | Garman, Matthew S | CEO Amazon Web Services | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 221.57 | 17,785 | 3,940,677 | 695,296 | Form |
| 45 | Zapolsky, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 221.54 | 7,100 | 1,572,945 | 12,778,513 | Form |
| 46 | Olsavsky, Brian T | Senior Vice President and CFO | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 222.74 | 17,750 | 3,953,635 | 10,914,260 | Form |
| 47 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 221.62 | 6,835 | 1,514,783 | 115,355,537 | Form |
| 48 | Reynolds, Shelley | Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 221.64 | 2,715 | 601,755 | 26,548,139 | Form |
| 49 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 232.32 | 4,784 | 1,111,410 | 118,541,470 | Form |
| 50 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 8052025 | 217.00 | 2,500 | 542,500 | 111,114,850 | Form |
| 51 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7252025 | 230.43 | 2,643,142 | 609,055,618 | 203,648,201,195 | Form |
| 52 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7252025 | 228.48 | 1,510,956 | 345,219,752 | 202,527,898,092 | Form |
| 53 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7232025 | 229.39 | 2,339,470 | 536,641,386 | 203,679,522,189 | Form |
| 54 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7232025 | 227.77 | 4,273,237 | 973,318,251 | 202,778,225,455 | Form |
| 55 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7172025 | 227.02 | 733,195 | 166,449,709 | 203,079,724,832 | Form |
| 56 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7152025 | 225.89 | 2,442,187 | 551,671,567 | 202,236,956,419 | Form |
| 57 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7152025 | 224.81 | 4,273,237 | 960,684,493 | 201,820,701,440 | Form |
| 58 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7102025 | 224.02 | 384,124 | 86,052,572 | 202,067,608,493 | Form |
| 59 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7102025 | 223.88 | 101,081 | 22,630,055 | 202,025,071,994 | Form |
| 60 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7082025 | 223.92 | 2,046,582 | 458,271,869 | 202,083,981,766 | Form |
| 61 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7082025 | 223.73 | 927,863 | 207,592,274 | 202,371,298,011 | Form |
| 62 | Herrington, Douglas J | CEO Worldwide Amazon Stores | Direct | Sell | 7032025 | 220.06 | 2,500 | 550,144 | 113,230,640 | Form |
| 63 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7012025 | 223.56 | 224,926 | 50,284,187 | 202,422,427,665 | Form |
| 64 | Bezos, Jeffrey P | Executive Chair | Direct | Sell | 7012025 | 221.42 | 3,100,000 | 686,399,202 | 200,534,826,125 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 2, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skye Global Management LP | $2.0 Bil | 43.7% | 44 | ADD +8.6% | 13F |
| Pamplona Capital Management, LLC | $182.6 Mil | 38.6% | 5 | Hold | 13F |
| Altarock Partners LP | $1.6 Bil | 38.2% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| Brighton Jones LLC | $861.0 Mil | 36.3% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Nellore Capital Management LLC | $225.1 Mil | 28.8% | 11 | ADD +6.3% | 13F |
| Powszechne Towarzystwo Emerytalne Allianz Polska S.A. | $63.8 Mil | 23.8% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $399.5 Mil | 22.1% | 64 | New | 13F |
| Standard Investments LLC | $369.3 Mil | 21.7% | 11 | ADD +6.0% | 13F |
| BlueSpruce Investments, LP | $129.1 Mil | 20.5% | 10 | TRIM -79.6% | 13F |
| Ulysses Management LLC | $53.6 Mil | 20.2% | 28 | Hold | 13F |
| Miller Wealth Advisors, LLC | $51.7 Mil | 19.9% | 117 | Hold | 13F |
| Third Point LLC | $404.0 Mil | 19.4% | 33 | New | 13F |
| Torque Asset Management LLC | $49.0 Mil | 19.3% | 12 | Hold | 13F |
| Tikvah Management LLC | $61.6 Mil | 19.1% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| B&D White Capital Company, LLC | $153.6 Mil | 19.0% | 74 | Hold | 13F |
| Greenlea Lane Capital Management, LLC | $65.1 Mil | 18.9% | 9 | Hold | 13F |
| Hoey Investments, Inc | $126.2 Mil | 18.6% | 416 | Hold | 13F |
| Selkirk Management LLC | $52.7 Mil | 17.9% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| GCQ FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY Ltd | $134.6 Mil | 17.9% | 11 | ADD +9.5% | 13F |
| Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. | $2.4 Bil | 17.4% | 11 | ADD +19.2% | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $284.1 Mil | 17.2% | 21 | TRIM -8.3% | 13F |
| MBB Public Markets I LLC | $141.9 Mil | 17.0% | 24 | ADD +7.1% | 13F |
| Alua Capital Management LP | $142.9 Mil | 15.6% | 14 | New | 13F |
| OAKMONT Corp | $82.1 Mil | 15.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $453.0 Mil | 15.4% | 8 | ADD +20.8% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $1.7 Bil | 12.5% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $899.7 Mil | 15.2% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) | $576.3 Mil | 13.3% | 346 | New | 13F |
| Stockbridge Partners LLC | $515.5 Mil | 12.5% | 16 | New | 13F |
| Third Point LLC | $404.0 Mil | 19.4% | 33 | New | 13F |
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $399.5 Mil | 22.1% | 64 | New | 13F |
| Avala Global LP | $246.2 Mil | 11.8% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Alua Capital Management LP | $142.9 Mil | 15.6% | 14 | New | 13F |
| HMI Capital Management, L.P. | $110.2 Mil | 14.6% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Manchester Global Management (UK) Ltd | $105.9 Mil | 14.1% | 23 | New | 13F |
| Think Investments LP | $78.6 Mil | 10.6% | 30 | New | 13F |
| Manitou Investment Management Ltd. | $58.0 Mil | 11.5% | 52 | New | 13F |
| Square Wave Capital, LLC | $54.9 Mil | 13.3% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Horiko Capital Management LLC | $46.2 Mil | 10.7% | 20 | New | 13F |
| ADAPT Investment Managers SA | $40.8 Mil | 13.8% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Ratan Capital Management LP | $39.1 Mil | 14.5% | 37 | New | 13F |
| ShawSpring Partners LLC | $38.8 Mil | 14.5% | 12 | New | 13F |
| Arkfeld Wealth Strategies, L.L.C. | $36.3 Mil | 11.5% | 115 | New | 13F |
| Maestria Partners LLC | $30.7 Mil | 11.2% | 13 | New | 13F |
| Crake Asset Management LLP | $438.0 Mil | 15.3% | 20 | ADD +26.4% | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $453.0 Mil | 15.4% | 8 | ADD +20.8% | 13F |
| Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. | $2.4 Bil | 17.4% | 11 | ADD +19.2% | 13F |
| GCQ FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY Ltd | $134.6 Mil | 17.9% | 11 | ADD +9.5% | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $2.0 Bil | 43.7% | 44 | ADD +8.6% | 13F |
| MBB Public Markets I LLC | $141.9 Mil | 17.0% | 24 | ADD +7.1% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egerton Capital (UK) LLP | $1.4 Bil | 14.8% | 23 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Banque Pictet & Cie SA | $1.2 Bil | 11.7% | 384 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| ValueAct Holdings, L.P. | $783.5 Mil | 11.2% | 16 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $383.8 Mil | 30.1% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Three Seasons Wealth, LLC | $341.7 Mil | 32.6% | 199 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Maplelane Capital, LLC | $277.2 Mil | 15.8% | 138 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| RK Capital Management, LLC/FL | $202.0 Mil | 12.5% | 20 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $185.7 Mil | 11.1% | 25 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Park Presidio Capital LLC | $141.3 Mil | 11.5% | 15 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Kapitalo Investimentos Ltda | $130.4 Mil | 25.0% | 35 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Quarry LP | $104.0 Mil | 17.0% | 2064 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Spear Holdings RSC Ltd | $85.0 Mil | 15.0% | 11 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| PBCay One RSC Ltd | $85.0 Mil | 15.0% | 11 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Cypress Funds LLC | $81.7 Mil | 13.5% | 14 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Criteria Caixa, S.A.U. | $64.9 Mil | 22.4% | 8 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Milestones Administradora de Recursos Ltda. | $47.2 Mil | 15.6% | 18 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Range Rock Capital, LLC | $44.8 Mil | 15.6% | 26 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Regents Gate Capital LLP | $43.8 Mil | 14.0% | 37 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Proem Advisors LLC | $36.7 Mil | 12.4% | 28 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| BlueSpruce Investments, LP | $129.1 Mil | 20.5% | 10 | TRIM -79.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $416.3 Mil | 13.1% | 14 | TRIM -21.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Crow's Nest Holdings LP | $56.2 Mil | 13.1% | 11 | TRIM -18.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Columbus Hill Capital Management, L.P. | $66.9 Mil | 11.3% | 21 | TRIM -14.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $284.1 Mil | 17.2% | 21 | TRIM -8.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. | $2.4 Bil | 17.4% | 11 | ADD +19.2% | 13F |
| Skye Global Management LP | $2.0 Bil | 43.7% | 44 | ADD +8.6% | 13F |
| Soroban Capital Partners LP | $1.7 Bil | 12.5% | 27 | New | 13F |
| Altarock Partners LP | $1.6 Bil | 38.2% | 8 | Hold | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $899.7 Mil | 15.2% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Brighton Jones LLC | $861.0 Mil | 36.3% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) | $576.3 Mil | 13.3% | 346 | New | 13F |
| Stockbridge Partners LLC | $515.5 Mil | 12.5% | 16 | New | 13F |
| Voyager Global Management LP | $453.0 Mil | 15.4% | 8 | ADD +20.8% | 13F |
| Crake Asset Management LLP | $438.0 Mil | 15.3% | 20 | ADD +26.4% | 13F |
| Foxhaven Asset Management, LP | $416.3 Mil | 13.1% | 14 | TRIM -21.6% | 13F |
| Third Point LLC | $404.0 Mil | 19.4% | 33 | New | 13F |
| OP Asset Management Ltd | $399.5 Mil | 22.1% | 64 | New | 13F |
| Meritage Group LP | $386.3 Mil | 14.6% | 13 | Hold | 13F |
| Standard Investments LLC | $369.3 Mil | 21.7% | 11 | ADD +6.0% | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $284.1 Mil | 17.2% | 21 | TRIM -8.3% | 13F |
| Avala Global LP | $246.2 Mil | 11.8% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Consulta Ltd | $245.8 Mil | 12.2% | 13 | Hold | 13F |
| Nellore Capital Management LLC | $225.1 Mil | 28.8% | 11 | ADD +6.3% | 13F |
| Styrax Capital, LP | $208.3 Mil | 14.5% | 17 | Hold | 13F |
| Pamplona Capital Management, LLC | $182.6 Mil | 38.6% | 5 | Hold | 13F |
| B&D White Capital Company, LLC | $153.6 Mil | 19.0% | 74 | Hold | 13F |
| Strategy Capital LLC | $144.4 Mil | 11.8% | 11 | Hold | 13F |
| Alua Capital Management LP | $142.9 Mil | 15.6% | 14 | New | 13F |
| MBB Public Markets I LLC | $141.9 Mil | 17.0% | 24 | ADD +7.1% | 13F |
AMZN Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is constructive, centered on AWS's accelerating growth to 36.7% and its $496 billion backlog. This provides high visibility that a massive $220 billion capital investment is meeting pre-sold demand. The primary watch-point is the durability of this backlog growth, as current free cash flow is negative.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Hybrid: Diversified Conglomerate with a dominant Platform-as-a-Service (PaaS) engine.AWS Revenue = (Number of Customers) x (Volume of Services Consumed) x (Price per Service Unit) Growth in consumption of high-margin AWS services, particularly AI workloads running on proprietary, cost-advantaged Trainium chips.
Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the
Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests yes; accelerating demand and a massive backlog signal a durable, high-return growth phase.
Mechanism:
AWS revenue growth accelerated to 36.7%, its fastest in 18 quarters, supported by a $496 billion backlog. This high-margin growth is set to monetize a planned $220 billion in 2026 capital expenditures, driving future cash flow.
Supporting Evidence:
- AWS revenue growth accelerated for the fifth straight quarter to 36.7% YoY.
- The AWS backlog of future commitments stands at $496 billion, growing triple-digits YoY.
- The AI business now has an annual revenue run rate over $25 billion.
- Management plans to spend approximately $220 billion in cash CapEx in 2026 to meet demand.
- Company guidance for Q3 operating income was raised by 11.4% at the midpoint.
PRIMARY RISK
A $220 billion capital plan for 2026 has driven free cash flow to negative $11.6 billion. If AI demand falters or competition erodes pricing, returns on this massive investment could be severely impaired.
Mechanism:
A sharp deceleration in the AWS backlog growth rate would signal that future demand is insufficient to absorb new capacity.
Supporting Evidence:
- Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is negative $11.6 billion.
- Planned 2026 cash capital expenditures are approximately $220 billion.
- Competitors are also investing heavily, with Alphabet's cloud revenue growing 82%.
- Accounts receivable grew 53.4% YoY, far outpacing 19.6% revenue growth.
- The stock underperformed the S&P 500 over the prior three and twelve months.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| AWS Revenue Growth | 36.7% year-over-year for Q2 2026 - Accelerating | AWS growth has accelerated for five consecutive quarters, reaching its fastest rate in 18 quarters. Management attributes this to strong demand for both core cloud services and new AI workloads, with the CEO stating that "growth in one is driving growth in the other." |
| Worldwide Paid Unit Growth | 17% year-over-year for Q2 2026 - Accelerating | The growth in items sold is accelerating, which management links to achieving record delivery speeds and expanding fast-delivery options like same-day service, which saw over 40% more items delivered same-day or overnight in the first half of the year. |
| AWS Annualized Revenue Run Rate | $169 billion (Q2 2026) | Indicates the scale and current growth trajectory of the company's most profitable segment. A high and accelerating run rate signals strong momentum in cloud adoption and AI services. |
| AWS AI Business Annual Revenue Run Rate | Over $25 billion (Q2 2026) | Measures the scale of the company's direct AI-related revenue, a key catalyst for growth. Its triple-digit year-over-year growth highlights the massive demand for AI services. |
| AWS Chips Business Annual Revenue Run Rate | Over $25 billion (Q2 2026) | Quantifies the success of Amazon's custom silicon strategy (Graviton and Trainium), which provides a key cost and performance advantage, driving both customer adoption and internal efficiencies. |
Core Investment Debate
AI Investment Boom vs. Capex Bubble?
BULL VIEW
The $496 billion AWS backlog, growing at triple-digit rates, proves demand is real, contracted, and justifies the $220 billion 2026 capex plan. This is a land grab for a generational opportunity.
CORE TENSION
Can AWS's 36.7% revenue acceleration and $496B backlog outrun the cash burn from its $220B capex plan, which the market punished in February?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
The latest quarter's results favor the bulls. The triple-digit backlog growth and commentary on being capacity-constrained through 2027 refutes the near-term glut thesis.
BEAR VIEW
The massive industry-wide capex spend will create a capacity glut, crushing future pricing and returns. The current negative $11.6 billion free cash flow is a warning of prolonged value destruction.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Q3 | Third Quarter Revenue Watch: Company guidance for Q3 2026 net sales is expected to be between $197 billion and $202 billion. |
Third Quarter Operating Income Watch: Company guidance for Q3 2026 operating income is expected to be between $22.5 billion and $26.5 billion. | |
10/19/2026 | Netflix Earnings Report Watch: Peer Netflix reports earnings, providing an early signal on the streaming and digital content environment. |
10/27/2026 | Peer Cloud Acceleration Watch: Azure and Google Cloud revenue growth rates and forward guidance, which will frame the competitive narrative for AWS. |
10/27/2026 | Microsoft Earnings Report Watch: Peer Microsoft reports earnings, providing a competitive read on cloud and AI demand before Amazon's own report. |
10/27/2026 | Alphabet Earnings Report Watch: Peer Alphabet reports earnings, offering another key data point on cloud competition and digital advertising trends. |
10/28/2026 | AWS Growth Deceleration Watch: AWS revenue growth rate falling below expectations, or management commentary suggesting a slowdown in AI or core workload demand. |
10/28/2026 | Priced-in Volatility Watch: An outsized stock price reaction to the Q3 earnings report, as the market is already positioned for a large move. |
10/28/2026 | Next Earnings Report Watch: The company is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
11/19/2026 | Walmart Earnings Report Watch: Peer Walmart reports earnings, offering a read-through on the broadline retail and grocery consumer environment. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-31 | New Consumer Lawsuits Filed Details: News reports on July 31 indicated the company was facing new consumer litigation, including a class-action lawsuit alleging misleading seafood sustainability claims and another concerning protein powder contaminants. | +15.3% $235.50 -> $271.58 |
2026-07-30 | Guidance Update for Q3 Details: At the Q2 earnings report, the company raised its guidance for Q3 revenue and operating income, but lowered its guidance for Q3 revenue growth. | +19.8% $226.65 -> $271.58 |
2026-07-30 | Q2 Earnings Beat Expectations Details: The company announced Q2 net sales increased 20% to $200.6 billion. AWS net sales increased 37%, its fastest growth in 18 quarters. | +19.8% $226.65 -> $271.58 |
2026-06-08 | Prime Day Timing Shift Details: An analyst note in June highlighted that the Prime Day sales event moved into the second quarter, a shift expected to pull billions in revenue forward from Q3. | -0.7% $246.03 -> $244.19 |
2026-04-29 | Major AI Product Push Details: Following Q1 earnings, press reports highlighted a major enterprise AI push, including making OpenAI models available on the Bedrock platform and launching new agentic developer frameworks. | +2.1% $259.70 -> $265.06 |
2026-03-25 | Fauna Robotics Acquisition Details: Press reports in March indicated that the company was acquiring Fauna Robotics, expanding its investment in automation and robotics technology. | +0.1% $207.24 -> $207.54 |
2026-02-05 | Capex Guidance Shocks Market Details: Following Q4 2025 earnings, shares fell after the company announced plans to increase 2026 capital spending to approximately $200 billion. The two-day stock reaction was -10.0%. | -9.7% $232.99 -> $210.32 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: AMZN trades at roughly 38% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (2.7x the market), around the 99th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
MSFT - Microsoft
Enterprise AI ExposureMicrosoft offers a more direct play on enterprise software and AI integration through its Azure and Office franchises, with significantly higher corporate operating margins of 46.8%.
Core Thesis: The company is capturing AI demand by integrating new capabilities across its vast, existing enterprise software footprint.
GOOGL - Alphabet
Pure-Play Tech BetAlphabet provides exposure to the AI and cloud secular trends without the lower-margin retail business. Its cloud segment recently grew 82%, showing strong competitive momentum.
Core Thesis: The company leverages its foundational AI research and search dominance to drive growth in its high-margin cloud and advertising businesses.
How Is The Market Pricing AMZN?
Amazon is an AI infrastructure powerhouse whose cloud business is experiencing a historic demand boom, funded by a vast and efficient global retail and logistics operation.
The investment thesis centers on the explosive, accelerating growth of AWS, which is capturing a massive wave of AI-driven demand. This high-margin business is the company's profit engine and is growing at its fastest rate in 18 quarters. While the retail business provides enormous scale and cash flow, the primary value driver and catalyst for repricing is AWS's dominance in the AI infrastructure layer, supported by its proprietary chip technology.
What will confirm the thesis
Continued acceleration in AWS revenue growth, expansion of the AWS backlog, and announcements of major new commitments from AI labs or large enterprises for AWS services, particularly those involving custom Trainium chips.
What will damage the thesis
A deceleration in AWS revenue growth, a slowdown in backlog growth, or commentary indicating that AI demand is not translating into core cloud service consumption. Significant margin compression in AWS not explained by investment cycles.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Short-term fluctuations in the retail segments' operating margins or minor legal challenges as reported in July.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's reaction to the Q2 2026 earnings, where AWS growth accelerated for the fifth straight quarter to 36.7% YoY, far exceeding expectations and signaling a massive pull-forward of AI-related demand. The stock's 20% two-day reaction around the earnings call confirms this.
What AMZN Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on the twelve months through fiscal Q1 2026
North America
$437.6B TTM (59% of Total) · 7% MarginWhat It Is
Sells consumer products and subscriptions through online and physical stores to consumers in North America. It also offers advertising services and enables third-party sellers to sell their products.
Who Pays & How
Consumers pay for a vast selection of goods at low prices with the convenience of fast, reliable delivery. Third-party sellers pay fees to access Amazon's customer base and fulfillment network.
Transactional (product sales), recurring (Prime subscriptions), and commission/fee-based (third-party seller services).
Competition
Physical, e-commerce, and omnichannel retailers, including Walmart (WMT).
Competitors may have greater resources, longer histories, more customers, or greater brand recognition.
Vast product selection, low prices, and a highly efficient and fast fulfillment and delivery network, which the company continues to expand.
International
$168.2B TTM (23% of Total) · 3% MarginWhat It Is
Sells consumer products and subscriptions through online stores to consumers outside of North America. It also offers advertising and third-party seller services in these regions.
Who Pays & How
International consumers pay for products and services for the same reasons as in North America: selection, price, and convenience. The company is investing in faster delivery and sharper pricing to drive adoption.
Transactional (product sales), recurring (Prime subscriptions), and commission/fee-based (third-party seller services).
Competition
Local e-commerce and omnichannel retailers who may have a better understanding of the local customer and more established brand names.
Greater understanding of local customers and more established local brand names.
Leveraging its global scale in technology, logistics, and brand recognition to offer a superior customer experience in international markets.
Amazon Web Services (AWS)
$137.0B TTM (18% of Total) · 35% MarginWhat It Is
Sells a broad set of on-demand technology services, including compute, storage, database, analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) services to developers, start-ups, enterprises, and government agencies.
Who Pays & How
Enterprises and developers pay for AWS to access scalable, secure, and operationally performant infrastructure without the need for large upfront capital expenditures. Customers choose AWS for its broad functionality and because their other applications and data already reside on the platform.
Primarily consumption-based (pay-as-you-go), with options for fixed-quantity contracts over a specified term.
Competition
Other large-scale cloud providers such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL).
Competitors may have greater resources or longer histories in enterprise IT.
Broadest set of capabilities, strongest security and operational performance, and a significant lead in market share, creating a network effect where customers want their AI workloads near their existing data and applications, which predominantly reside on AWS.
AMZN Evolution: Price Return by Era
2021-2023 · Retail Dominance, Cloud Incubation
-5%
During this period, the North America and International retail segments constituted the vast majority of revenue. However, AWS was the overwhelming source of profit. The retail segments experienced significant profit volatility, with North America's operating income declining to a loss before recovering, and International posting losses for three consecutive years.
2024-2026 · The AI-Fueled AWS Breakout
+57%
This era is defined by the explosive, re-accelerating growth of AWS, driven by the generative AI boom. AWS revenue growth accelerated for five consecutive quarters, reaching 36.7% in Q2 2026. AWS's share of revenue and operating income has expanded significantly, and the company is undertaking a massive capital investment cycle to build out capacity to meet what it describes as unprecedented demand for AI infrastructure.
Market Appears To Be Cautiously Supportive
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Lagging on 63D window but 'relative strength' trend is stabilizing. This is not yet a tailwind, but the 'relative strength' is no longer deteriorating. Volume and momentum are supportive. OBV (on-balance volume) and up/down volume character favor buyers. Earnings history is mildly cautionary. The reaction or drift are negative, and the market is beginning to push back on the thesis.
① Structure
+4
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+2
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-1
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
5 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Uptrend Cooling · Golden Cross
▾
2
Momentum
Mixed
▾
3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Recovering Relative Strength
▾
4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Strong Accumulation
▾
5
Volatility
Expanded
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Rising
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Diminishing Reward
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
▾
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Broadline Retail Resources |
| Chain Store Age |
| RetailWire |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.
Core Cache Last Updated: 8/1/2026