Airbnb (ABNB)
Market Price (11/8/2026): $190.25 | Market Cap: $111.8 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Airbnb (ABNB)
Market Price (11/8/2026): $190.25Market Cap: $111.8 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, CFO LTM is 5.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.0 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 11 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.3% Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -15% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.0x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 37x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 22x Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% Key risksABNB key risks include [1] escalating global regulatory pressure on short-term rentals that directly threatens its host supply and profitability and [2] intensifying competition from traditional hotels and rival online platforms. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 22% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, CFO LTM is 5.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.0 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 11 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Online Marketplaces, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.3%, Dist 3Y High is -0.3% |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -15% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.0x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 37x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 22x |
| Significant share based compensationSBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% |
| Key risksABNB key risks include [1] escalating global regulatory pressure on short-term rentals that directly threatens its host supply and profitability and [2] intensifying competition from traditional hotels and rival online platforms. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Airbnb (ABNB) stock has gained about 25% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Financial Outperformance and Reaccelerated Growth: Airbnb reported exceptional results for its fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2026, which significantly exceeded analyst expectations and demonstrated a reacceleration of growth. Revenue surged 19% year-over-year to $4.9 billion, marking its fastest growth in over three years, compared to an analyst forecast of approximately $4.75 billion. Gross Booking Value (GBV) increased 21% year-over-year to $27.7 billion, accelerating by five percentage points sequentially from fiscal Q2 2026. Nights and Seats Booked also grew by 16% year-over-year to 155 million, an acceleration from the 10% growth in the prior quarter. This strong performance was broad-based, with every region delivering double-digit nights growth and all five core markets showing acceleration.
2. Raised Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook and Share Repurchase Authorization: The company's optimistic future projections and a substantial capital return plan bolstered investor confidence. Airbnb raised its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue growth guidance to the "high teens" from its previous expectation of "at least mid-teens" and increased its adjusted EBITDA margin forecast to approximately 36% from at least 35.5%. Furthermore, the board authorized a new share repurchase program of up to an additional $12 billion of Class A common stock, signaling confidence in the company's long-term value and providing a floor of support for the stock.
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Airbnb (ABNB) stock has gained about 25% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Strong Fiscal Q3 2026 Financial Outperformance and Reaccelerated Growth: Airbnb reported exceptional results for its fiscal third quarter ended September 30, 2026, which significantly exceeded analyst expectations and demonstrated a reacceleration of growth. Revenue surged 19% year-over-year to $4.9 billion, marking its fastest growth in over three years, compared to an analyst forecast of approximately $4.75 billion. Gross Booking Value (GBV) increased 21% year-over-year to $27.7 billion, accelerating by five percentage points sequentially from fiscal Q2 2026. Nights and Seats Booked also grew by 16% year-over-year to 155 million, an acceleration from the 10% growth in the prior quarter. This strong performance was broad-based, with every region delivering double-digit nights growth and all five core markets showing acceleration.
2. Raised Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook and Share Repurchase Authorization: The company's optimistic future projections and a substantial capital return plan bolstered investor confidence. Airbnb raised its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue growth guidance to the "high teens" from its previous expectation of "at least mid-teens" and increased its adjusted EBITDA margin forecast to approximately 36% from at least 35.5%. Furthermore, the board authorized a new share repurchase program of up to an additional $12 billion of Class A common stock, signaling confidence in the company's long-term value and providing a floor of support for the stock.
3. Operational Efficiencies Driven by AI and Strategic Product Enhancements: Airbnb's focus on technological advancements and strategic product offerings contributed to improved profitability and booking acceleration. Artificial intelligence (AI) played a key role in enhancing operational efficiency, with an AI assistant resolving approximately 40% of all customer support issues without human agents, leading to a more than 17% reduction in support costs per booking. The expansion of the "Reserve Now, Pay Later" program also provided a 3 percentage point net lift to nights booked in fiscal Q3 2026. Additionally, accelerated growth in first-time bookers, up 13% year-over-year and the highest since early 2022, particularly among Gen Z, indicates successful engagement with new user segments through continuous platform improvements.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 25.4% change in ABNB stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 151.52 | 189.99 | 25.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,647 | 13,933 | 10.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 19.9% | 23.0% | 15.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.0 | 34.9 | -3.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 598 | 589 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 25.4% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ABNB | 25.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 26.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.3% | 49.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 35.4% change in ABNB stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 13.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 140.36 | 189.99 | 35.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,241 | 13,933 | 13.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 20.5% | 23.0% | 12.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 33.8 | 34.9 | 3.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 604 | 589 | 2.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 35.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ABNB | 35.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 26.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.5% | 47.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 50.1% change in ABNB stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 20.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 126.54 | 189.99 | 50.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,580 | 13,933 | 20.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.7% | 23.0% | 1.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.6 | 34.9 | 17.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 615 | 589 | 4.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 50.1% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ABNB | 50.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 38.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | -1.4% | 53.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 60.6% change in ABNB stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/7/2026 was primarily driven by a 53.3% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11072026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 118.29 | 189.99 | 60.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 9,088 | 13,933 | 53.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.3% | 23.0% | -9.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.7 | 34.9 | 6.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 635 | 589 | 7.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 60.6% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/7/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ABNB | 60.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 52.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 58.2% | 56.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ABNB Return | 13% | -49% | 59% | -3% | 3% | 40% | 29% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -20% | 58% | 29% | 19% | 9% | 171% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ABNB Win Rate | 58% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 58% | 64% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 45% | 62% | 63% | 60% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ABNB Max Drawdown | -39% | -56% | -26% | -33% | -35% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -39% | -18% | -20% | -30% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: BKNG, EXPE, MAR, HLT, H. See ABNB Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ABNB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 486 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 191 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -10.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -48.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1499 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Airbnb's stock fell -33.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 49.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | ABNB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 486 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 191 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.2% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.3% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 91 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -48.4% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1499 days | 427 days |
In The Past
Airbnb's stock fell -33.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 49.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Airbnb (ABNB)
Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) operates as a leading global online marketplace connecting individuals who want to rent out their properties or offer unique activities (hosts) with travelers seeking accommodation or experiences (guests). The company's innovative platform leverages web and mobile technologies to facilitate these transactions, essentially acting as an intermediary that streamlines the booking process for both parties worldwide.
The core of Airbnb's offerings centers on short-term rentals, encompassing a wide variety of lodging options such as private rooms, entire primary residences, and vacation homes. Beyond just accommodation, the platform also enables hosts to list and manage "experiences," which are curated activities like cooking classes, walking tours, or local adventures, providing guests with a more immersive travel experience.
Airbnb serves a diverse global customer base, primarily comprising property owners or individuals with spare rooms looking to earn income as hosts, and travelers seeking alternatives to conventional hotels. These guests typically look for unique stays, a sense of local immersion, or more spacious and personalized lodging options, catering to both leisure and business travel markets across the globe.
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1. eBay for private accommodations
2. Expedia for unique stays and experiences
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Major Products and Services of Airbnb (ABNB)
- Stays: A global marketplace connecting guests with hosts offering a diverse range of accommodations, including private rooms, entire homes, and vacation rentals.
- Experiences: A platform for hosts to offer unique activities and tours, allowing guests to discover and book immersive local experiences.
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Airbnb (ABNB) sells primarily to individuals. Its major customer categories include:
- Leisure Travelers: Individuals, couples, families, and groups seeking short-term accommodations for vacations, holidays, and recreational trips.
- Business Travelers: Professionals and teams utilizing the platform for work-related travel, including individual business trips, team off-sites, and project-based stays.
- Long-Term Stay Guests: Individuals and families requiring extended accommodations for purposes such as relocation, temporary assignments, or extended personal travel.
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- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
- PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)
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Brian Chesky, Chief Executive Officer
Brian Chesky is the co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of Airbnb. He sets the vision and strategy for the company. In 2007, he and Joe Gebbia became Airbnb's first hosts. A graduate of the Rhode Island School of Design, Chesky has embedded his creative roots in Airbnb's culture, product, and community. Prior to co-founding Airbnb, he worked as an industrial designer.
Ellie Mertz, Chief Financial Officer
Ellie Mertz has served as Chief Financial Officer of Airbnb since March 2024. She oversees Airbnb's global finance team, including financial planning and analysis, accounting, tax, treasury, and investor relations. Mertz joined Airbnb in 2013 as Head of Global Financial Planning & Analysis and became Vice President of Finance in 2019. Before joining Airbnb, she held various finance roles, including Vice President of Finance, at Netflix from 2006 to 2013. She also serves on the boards of directors for DoorDash, Faire Wholesale, and Netflix.
Dave Stephenson, Chief Business Officer and Head of Employee Experience
Dave Stephenson is currently the Chief Business Officer and Head of Employee Experience at Airbnb. In this role, he focuses on growing global businesses, recruiting and developing supply, and executing global in-market strategy, while also overseeing talent, leadership development, and diversity initiatives. He previously served as Airbnb's Chief Financial Officer for five years. Prior to joining Airbnb in January 2019, Stephenson spent 17 years at Amazon, where he was Vice President and CFO of their Worldwide Consumer Organization and CFO of Amazon's International Consumer business. He also led the finance function across areas like Amazon Web Services. Earlier in his career, he was President and CFO of Big Fish Games and started as a manufacturing engineer and finance manager at Procter and Gamble. Stephenson serves on the boards of Lyft and SiriusXM.
Nathan Blecharczyk, Co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer
Nathan (Nate) Blecharczyk is a co-founder of Airbnb and serves as its Chief Strategy Officer. He also holds the position of Chairman of Airbnb China. Blecharczyk received a Bachelor of Arts degree in Computer Science from Harvard University. He is a signatory to the Giving Pledge.
Aristotle Balogh, Chief Technology Officer
Aristotle Balogh serves as the Chief Technology Officer at Airbnb. Further background details were not readily available in the provided search results.
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The key risks to Airbnb (ABNB) are primarily centered around evolving regulatory environments, intense competition, and the critical need to maintain a strong base of hosts and guests.
- Regulatory and Compliance Risks: Airbnb faces significant and ever-changing regulatory challenges globally. Numerous cities and governments have implemented or are considering strict laws, zoning restrictions, permit requirements, and taxes specifically targeting short-term rentals. These regulations aim to address concerns such as housing affordability, neighborhood impact, and safety. Non-compliance can lead to substantial fines, operational disruptions, and in some cases, outright prohibitions on short-term rentals, directly impacting Airbnb's ability to operate in key markets and potentially reducing its host supply.
- Competition: The travel and hospitality industry is highly competitive, posing a significant risk to Airbnb's market share and pricing power. The company faces formidable competition from traditional hotel chains, many of which are expanding their own vacation rental offerings, as well as from other established online travel agencies (OTAs) like Booking.com and Expedia Group. These competitors often possess substantial financial resources, established brand recognition, and extensive customer loyalty programs. This intense competitive landscape can lead to pressure on Average Daily Rates (ADR) and a constant need for innovation to differentiate its platform.
- Host and Guest Retention and Supply/Demand Dynamics: Airbnb's marketplace model is highly dependent on its ability to attract and retain a diverse base of high-quality hosts and a consistent flow of guests. Risks include potential host dissatisfaction due to evolving platform policies, increasing fees, or stringent guest-first rules, which could lead some hosts to seek alternative platforms or exit the short-term rental market altogether. On the guest side, maintaining the platform's appeal and ensuring consistent quality experiences are crucial. The business is also sensitive to broader macroeconomic conditions, changes in discretionary travel spending, and general fluctuations in supply and demand within the travel and hospitality industries.
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The increasing global trend of stringent regulations and restrictions on short-term rentals in major cities and tourist destinations represents a clear emerging threat to Airbnb. Governments and local authorities worldwide are implementing new laws, higher taxes, registration requirements, and even outright bans or strict caps on rental days (e.g., New York, Paris, Barcelona, London), directly impacting the supply of listings, operational costs for hosts, and Airbnb's ability to operate and expand in key markets. This regulatory environment is becoming more widespread and aggressive, posing a significant challenge to Airbnb's core business model and growth.
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For the public company Airbnb (symbol: ABNB), the addressable markets for its main products and services are as follows:
Stays (Accommodation Market)
Airbnb's total addressable market (TAM) for stays is estimated to be approximately $2.01 trillion globally. This figure is based on their IPO documents, which identified a market of $1.8 trillion for short-term stays and $210 billion for long-term stays.
Other estimates for the global accommodation market include:
- The global travel accommodation market was valued at $961.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $2,187.5 billion by 2034.
- The global alternative accommodation market was estimated at $127.28 billion in 2021 and is projected to reach $504.95 billion by 2030.
- The global travel accommodation market was valued at $797.7 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $3,144.7 billion by 2035.
Experiences Market
Airbnb's IPO documents claimed a total addressable market (TAM) for Experiences of a striking $1.4 trillion globally. This figure includes $239 billion in recreational leisure spend by tourists and another $1.1 trillion in non-travel-related recreational spend.
Other analyses of the global experiences market indicate:
- The global market for tours, activities, and attractions is projected to reach $271 billion in 2025 and $342 billion by 2029.
- The global market for travel experiences (destination visitors) could be more than $1 trillion.
- The global experience travel services market size was valued at USD 138.00 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 372.93 billion by 2034.
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Airbnb (ABNB) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key strategies:
- Expansion of Offerings and Services: Airbnb plans to significantly broaden its platform beyond traditional short-term stays to include a wider range of services and experiences. This includes an expansion into boutique and independent hotel offerings, as well as the ambition to launch two new business lines annually, such as a "Host Services Marketplace" for cleaners and chefs. The company is also focusing on local experiences, positioning itself as a "weekend lifestyle app" rather than solely a travel tool, and testing new services like grocery delivery and airport pickup.
- Product Innovations and Enhanced User Experience: Airbnb is focused on continuous product improvements and pricing initiatives to simplify booking and improve overall satisfaction for both guests and hosts. Initiatives such as "Reserve Now, Pay Later," simplified fee structures, and updated cancellation policies have already driven positive shifts in booking dynamics and contributed to Gross Booking Value (GBV) growth. "Project Hawaii," aimed at making it easier to find and book homes, is also expected to generate significant revenue in 2026, building on its 2025 success.
- Global Market Expansion and Penetration: The company is actively expanding its presence in new and existing international markets. This strategy is evident in the strong performance and increased first-time bookers in regions like Brazil, which has entered Airbnb's top five markets, as well as significant growth in India and Japan. Strategic market penetration is also being leveraged through global events such as the Olympics and FIFA World Cup, presenting opportunities to increase both demand and supply diversity.
- Leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI): Airbnb considers AI a central pillar of its strategy to enhance user experience and operational efficiency. AI is being utilized to drive discovery and personalize recommendations. Furthermore, an in-house AI agent is already resolving a substantial portion of customer support tickets, which streamlines operations and improves service delivery.
- Growth in Nights and Seats Booked & Gross Booking Value (GBV): As a culmination of the aforementioned strategies, Airbnb anticipates continued growth in its core metrics: the number of nights and seats booked, and Gross Booking Value. The company's Q4 2025 results showed a 10% increase in nights and seats booked and a 16% increase in GBV, with management projecting continued high-single-digit growth in nights and seats booked for Q1 2026. The disciplined investment in technology, product, and marketing is aimed at sustaining this momentum.
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Share Repurchases
- Airbnb announced a new share repurchase program with authorization to purchase up to an additional $6 billion of its Class A common stock in August 2025, with no expiration date.
- As of December 31, 2025, $5.6 billion remained available under the share repurchase program.
- The company repurchased 29.7 million shares of Class A common stock for $3.8 billion in 2025, following $3.4 billion in 2024 and $2.252 billion in 2023.
Share Issuance
- Share repurchases since the program's inception in August 2022 have helped to offset dilution from employee stock programs.
- Stock-based compensation, a form of share issuance, was approximately $1.59 billion recently, contributing to increased compensation expenses.
- Insider sales, such as those by Elinor Mertz in late 2025 and early 2026 and Joseph Gebbia's associated Sycamore Trust in late 2025 and March 2026, reflect the disposition of Class A common shares.
Outbound Investments
- Airbnb's most recent acquisition was GamePlanner.AI in November 2023 for $200 million, a provider of artificial intelligence development services.
- In April 2023, Airbnb acquired Letting Cloud for an undisclosed amount.
- The average number of acquisitions per year over the last five years (2020–2025) is 0.4.
Capital Expenditures
- Airbnb's capital expenditures have been consistently very low, with a capital expenditures margin of 0.0% for fiscal years ending December 2021 through 2025.
- The capital expenditure for the three months ended December 2025 was $0.00 million.
- This reflects Airbnb's asset-light, platform-based business model.
Peer Outperformance in Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABNB | Airbnb | 13.2% | 34.9x | 57.2% | 61.5% | -5.8% | — |
| RCL | Royal Caribbean | 13.4% | 19.2x | 30.3% | 254.7% | 250.1% | +256pp |
| LIND | Lindblad Expeditions | 15.3% | 385.6x | 180.1% | 396.1% | 92.6% | +98pp |
| CCL | Carnival Corporation | 11.5% | 12.9x | 13.0% | 136.2% | 21.9% | +28pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -14.6% | 32.4% | 41.0% | CVSA 246% · GHC 109% · LRN 107% |
| Homebuilding | 17 | 2.8% | 29.0% | 29.7% | PHM 175% · TOL 159% · GRBK 150% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -4.5% | 18.3% | 11.3% | MUSA 209% · PAG 115% · ORLY 111% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines ← | 21 | 19.1% | 65.4% | 7.0% | RCL 250% · MAR 159% · HLT 147% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -4.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | HD 6% · LOW 5% · FND -62% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | 3.8% | 76.0% | -1.2% | SGI 50% · MHK -15% |
| Footwear | 9 | 75.5% | 83.0% | -15.7% | DECK 23% · SHOO -11% · CROX -16% |
| Restaurants | 36 | 1.5% | -3.8% | -24.2% | EAT 363% · CAKE 158% · TXRH 110% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 32.8% | 80.3% | -24.5% | BBY -3% · GME -53% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -12.1% | 33.3% | -25.5% | FTDR 168% · HRB 146% · ADT 24% |
| Distributors | 4 | -6.7% | -16.6% | -26.0% | ARMK 96% · GPC 4% · POOL -56% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -18.0% | -5.2% | -34.4% | GOLF 51% · HAS 50% · BC -14% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 16.8% | 5.3% | -39.5% | OSW 160% · LTH 143% · PLNT -37% |
| Household Appliances | 18 | 36.3% | 16.7% | -40.3% | WHR -82% |
| Broadline Retail | 12 | -4.4% | 16.3% | -45.7% | EBAY 76% · AMZN 47% · OLLI 24% |
| Apparel Retail | 27 | -5.5% | 2.6% | -48.8% | ANF 223% · VSXY 110% · TJX 104% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 37 | -13.5% | -25.6% | -48.8% | GTX 197% · PATK 64% · ALV 41% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 21 | -25.1% | -16.3% | -51.8% | RRR 22% · BYD 19% · LVS 3% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | 14.6% | 20.9% | -53.7% | TPR 255% · RL 225% · KTB 59% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 25 | -5.3% | -10.5% | -57.7% | ULTA 65% · ASO 53% · ARHS 26% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -57.1% | -43.4% | -70.5% | GM 54% · TSLA -12% · F -12% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -31.6% | -31.4% | -80.5% | GRMN 122% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 225.07 |
| Mkt Cap | 95.7 |
| Rev LTM | 15,080 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,090 |
| FCF LTM | 3,616 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,784 |
| CFO LTM | 4,312 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,488 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 17.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 15.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 20.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 18.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 95.7 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 26.0 |
| P/EBIT | 25.9 |
| P/E | 37.9 |
| P/CFO | 24.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 14.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 27.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 99.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 19.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 10.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 15.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 28.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 29.0% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 12,241 | 11,102 | 9,917 | 8,399 | 5,992 |
| Total | 12,241 | 11,102 | 9,917 | 8,399 | 5,992 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 2,544 | 2,553 | 1,518 |
| Total | 2,544 | 2,553 | 1,518 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single Segment | 2,511 | 2,648 | 4,792 |
| Total | 2,511 | 2,648 | 4,792 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $189.99 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 111.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/10/2020 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -0.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $169.07 | $147.78 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | up |
| Distance from DMA | 12.4% | 28.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 42.3% | 38.6% |
| Downside Capture | 81.35 | 100.75 |
| Upside Capture | 145.92 | 143.08 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 30.9% | 38.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.11 | 0.82 | 0.91 | 0.75 | 1.09 | 1.26 |
| Up Beta | -1.59 | -0.37 | -0.28 | 0.33 | 0.85 | 1.31 |
| Down Beta | 0.24 | 0.54 | 1.04 | 0.54 | 1.15 | 1.29 |
| Up Capture | 36% | 73% | 135% | 107% | 136% | 142% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 22 | 33 | 63 | 134 | 392 |
| Down Capture | -2% | 145% | 92% | 81% | 103% | 106% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 31 | 63 | 117 | 358 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ABNB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABNB | 55.4% | 38.6% | 1.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -1.9% | 19.8% | -0.22 | 53.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | 37.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | 11.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -28.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 26.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -27.2% | 43.6% | -0.61 | 19.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ABNB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABNB | 2.2% | 44.7% | 0.18 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 4.0% | 24.2% | 0.12 | 64.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 58.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 5.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | 7.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 40.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.0% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 28.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ABNB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABNB | 2.8% | 46.1% | 0.25 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.8% | 22.3% | 0.52 | 58.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 52.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 9.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 35.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 22.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 11/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2026 | 11.7% | ||
| 8/6/2026 | 17.4% | 22.1% | 20.0% |
| 5/7/2026 | 0.7% | -4.8% | -4.3% |
| 2/12/2026 | 4.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 4.0% |
| 8/6/2025 | -8.0% | -4.6% | -5.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.5% |
| 2/13/2025 | 14.4% | 3.6% | -10.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 8 | 9 |
| # Negative | 10 | 15 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 6.2% | 4.4% | 9.9% |
| Median Negative | -7.4% | -5.6% | -7.0% |
| Max Positive | 17.4% | 22.1% | 20.0% |
| Max Negative | -13.4% | -19.9% | -16.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2026 | 11.7% | ||
| 8/6/2026 | 17.4% | 22.1% | 20.0% |
| 5/7/2026 | 0.7% | -4.8% | -4.3% |
| 2/12/2026 | 4.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 4.0% |
| 8/6/2025 | -8.0% | -4.6% | -5.1% |
| 5/1/2025 | 1.0% | 1.9% | 4.5% |
| 2/13/2025 | 14.4% | 3.6% | -10.0% |
| 11/7/2024 | -8.7% | -8.7% | -6.9% |
| 8/6/2024 | -13.4% | -10.4% | -11.0% |
| 5/8/2024 | -6.9% | -7.7% | -7.1% |
| 2/13/2024 | -1.7% | -1.0% | 10.4% |
| 11/1/2023 | -3.3% | -1.5% | 13.0% |
| 8/3/2023 | -0.5% | -3.5% | -5.8% |
| 5/9/2023 | -10.9% | -17.0% | -9.1% |
| 2/14/2023 | 13.4% | 5.2% | -0.7% |
| 11/1/2022 | -13.4% | -9.3% | -7.1% |
| 8/2/2022 | -1.1% | -1.6% | -2.8% |
| 5/3/2022 | 7.7% | -19.9% | -16.4% |
| 2/15/2022 | 3.6% | -16.7% | -12.5% |
| 11/4/2021 | 13.0% | 7.4% | 1.3% |
| 8/12/2021 | 1.1% | -5.6% | 6.1% |
| 5/13/2021 | 4.0% | 0.3% | 9.9% |
| 2/25/2021 | 13.3% | -1.0% | -4.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 8 | 9 |
| # Negative | 10 | 15 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 6.2% | 4.4% | 9.9% |
| Median Negative | -7.4% | -5.6% | -7.0% |
| Max Positive | 17.4% | 22.1% | 20.0% |
| Max Negative | -13.4% | -19.9% | -16.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 11/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 08/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/12/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/13/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/16/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/25/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/13/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/14/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/26/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 12/11/2020 | 424B4 |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/6/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2026 Gross Booking Value Growth | Reported | |||||||
| Q4 2026 Revenue | Reported | 3.22 Bil | 3.25 Bil | 3.28 Bil | -31.3% | Lower New | Guidance: 4.73 Bil for Q3 2026 | |
| Q4 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 16.0% | 17.0% | 18.0% | 1.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 16.0% for Q3 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | |||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 36.0% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 35.5% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Effective Tax Rate | Reported | |||||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Revenue | Reported | 3.54 Bil | 3.57 Bil | 3.60 Bil | ||||
| Q2 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 14.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | ||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 12.0% | 13.5% | 15.0% | 3.5% | Raised | Guidance: 10.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 35.0% | 35.0% | Raised | Guidance: 0.0% for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 GBV Growth | Reported | 10.0% | 11.5% | 13.0% | ||||
| Q1 2026 Revenue | Reported | 2.59 Bil | 2.61 Bil | 2.63 Bil | ||||
| Q1 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 14.0% | 15.0% | 16.0% | ||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 0.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 10.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Reported | 0.0% | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 11/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bernstein, David C | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11042026 | 167.38 | 1,756 | 293,919 | 7,347,824 | Form |
| 2 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 10282026 | 170.81 | 13,615 | 2,325,621 | 3,513,115 | Form |
| 3 | Bernstein, David C | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 168.01 | 1,369 | 230,006 | 7,670,506 | Form |
| 4 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 10142026 | 165.18 | 13,615 | 2,248,980 | 3,397,340 | Form |
| 5 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 9302026 | 156.82 | 13,615 | 2,135,172 | 3,225,419 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bernstein, David C | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 11042026 | 167.38 | 1,756 | 293,919 | 7,347,824 | Form |
| 2 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 10282026 | 170.81 | 13,615 | 2,325,621 | 3,513,115 | Form |
| 3 | Bernstein, David C | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 10192026 | 168.01 | 1,369 | 230,006 | 7,670,506 | Form |
| 4 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 10142026 | 165.18 | 13,615 | 2,248,980 | 3,397,340 | Form |
| 5 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 9302026 | 156.82 | 13,615 | 2,135,172 | 3,225,419 | Form |
| 6 | Bernstein, David C | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9172026 | 168.93 | 1,489 | 251,537 | 7,943,773 | Form |
| 7 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 9162026 | 172.36 | 13,615 | 2,346,728 | 3,544,998 | Form |
| 8 | Bernstein, David C | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 9032026 | 182.49 | 5,224 | 953,328 | 8,853,147 | Form |
| 9 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 9012026 | 187.27 | 13,615 | 2,549,635 | 3,851,512 | Form |
| 10 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 9012026 | 190.71 | 57,160 | 10,901,031 | 3,922,350 | Form |
| 11 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 8282026 | 190.73 | 19,659 | 3,749,611 | 3,922,796 | Form |
| 12 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 8262026 | 190.28 | 202,652 | 38,560,408 | 34,167,818 | Form |
| 13 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 8262026 | 190.94 | 150,640 | 28,763,739 | 3,927,136 | Form |
| 14 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Direct | Sell | 8212026 | 184.42 | 2,738 | 504,942 | 13,796,173 | Form |
| 15 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 8192026 | 182.86 | 13,615 | 2,489,607 | 4,424,058 | Form |
| 16 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | 2016 Legacy Trust B | Sell | 8112026 | 173.61 | 20,000 | 3,472,103 | 1,016,285 | Form |
| 17 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | Direct | Sell | 8112026 | 174.79 | 200,000 | 34,958,333 | 1,835,607,020 | Form |
| 18 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 8112026 | 174.41 | 531,000 | 92,614,067 | 29,889,402 | Form |
| 19 | Chenault, Kenneth I | Direct | Sell | 8112026 | 170.00 | 8,346 | 1,418,820 | 6,949,430 | Form | |
| 20 | Mertz, Elinor | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 8052026 | 153.34 | 3,748 | 574,718 | 67,706,123 | Form |
| 21 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 8052026 | 151.80 | 13,615 | 2,066,803 | 1,877,807 | Form |
| 22 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 7292026 | 151.67 | 1,828,303 | 277,302,027 | 32,609 | Form | |
| 23 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 7292026 | 145.70 | 265,000 | 38,609,761 | 266,409,976 | Form | |
| 24 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 7222026 | 145.43 | 13,615 | 1,980,075 | 1,799,010 | Form |
| 25 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 7172026 | 150.23 | 49,577 | 7,447,769 | 314,501,463 | Form | |
| 26 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 7172026 | 150.15 | 187,024 | 28,082,084 | 321,790,643 | Form | |
| 27 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 7152026 | 145.50 | 265,000 | 38,557,367 | 339,031,146 | Form | |
| 28 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 7092026 | 150.00 | 2,460 | 369,000 | 389,267,850 | Form | |
| 29 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 7082026 | 148.37 | 13,615 | 2,020,094 | 12,118,636 | Form |
| 30 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 7072026 | 150.01 | 27,733 | 4,160,341 | 389,673,476 | Form | |
| 31 | Mertz, Elinor | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7072026 | 148.01 | 3,750 | 555,038 | 65,907,444 | Form |
| 32 | Chenault, Kenneth I | Direct | Sell | 7012026 | 150.00 | 8,346 | 1,251,900 | 6,131,850 | Form | |
| 33 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 7012026 | 148.43 | 294,903 | 43,771,373 | 389,240,951 | Form | |
| 34 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 6302026 | 146.43 | 31,033 | 4,544,132 | 11,362,893 | Form |
| 35 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 6262026 | 145.09 | 2,113 | 306,570 | 1,794,731 | Form |
| 36 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 6262026 | 145.81 | 88,366 | 12,884,219 | 1,803,610 | Form |
| 37 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 6172026 | 138.51 | 265,000 | 36,704,161 | 404,071,957 | Form | |
| 38 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 138.40 | 30,743 | 4,254,779 | 1,481,095,012 | Form |
| 39 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 135.71 | 4,195 | 569,289 | 1,456,461,751 | Form |
| 40 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | Direct | Sell | 6102026 | 135.34 | 37,704 | 5,102,837 | 1,453,088,272 | Form |
| 41 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 135.17 | 16,515 | 2,232,258 | 1,456,317,296 | Form |
| 42 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | Direct | Sell | 6082026 | 136.14 | 64,333 | 8,758,076 | 1,469,028,505 | Form |
| 43 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 134.00 | 62,764 | 8,410,584 | 1,454,629,431 | Form |
| 44 | Mertz, Elinor | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 136.24 | 7,433 | 1,012,672 | 61,177,275 | Form |
| 45 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 6032026 | 135.45 | 265,000 | 35,893,438 | 431,040,230 | Form | |
| 46 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 135.80 | 184,513 | 25,057,198 | 1,482,675,807 | Form |
| 47 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | 2016 Legacy Trust B | Sell | 6022026 | 136.62 | 15,226 | 2,080,252 | 799,803 | Form |
| 48 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | Direct | Sell | 6022026 | 134.39 | 103,937 | 13,968,432 | 1,492,094,652 | Form |
| 49 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | 2016 Legacy Trust B | Sell | 6022026 | 135.16 | 4,774 | 645,259 | 2,849,196 | Form |
| 50 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 132.22 | 265,746 | 35,137,599 | 1,481,736,688 | Form |
| 51 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 133.15 | 229,550 | 30,564,953 | 1,527,533,302 | Form |
| 52 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | 2016 Legacy Trust B | Sell | 5292026 | 133.17 | 20,000 | 2,663,417 | 3,442,999 | Form |
| 53 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 5272026 | 133.44 | 2,860 | 381,638 | 460,014,476 | Form | |
| 54 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 5202026 | 134.86 | 54,000 | 7,282,706 | 2,023 | Form | |
| 55 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 5122026 | 145.67 | 627 | 91,336 | 1,736,398 | Form |
| 56 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 5122026 | 145.70 | 60,136 | 8,762,039 | 1,736,788 | Form |
| 57 | Mertz, Elinor | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 5062026 | 143.00 | 3,750 | 536,250 | 66,268,299 | Form |
| 58 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 5062026 | 140.37 | 58,000 | 8,141,301 | 7,581,938 | Form | |
| 59 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 4222026 | 142.59 | 58,000 | 8,270,238 | 15,972,254 | Form | |
| 60 | Mertz, Elinor | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4102026 | 130.99 | 3,750 | 491,213 | 51,657,044 | Form |
| 61 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 4082026 | 126.16 | 58,000 | 7,317,456 | 21,449,608 | Form | |
| 62 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 3252026 | 132.51 | 58,000 | 7,685,663 | 30,214,593 | Form | |
| 63 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 3112026 | 131.27 | 58,000 | 7,613,827 | 37,546,011 | Form | |
| 64 | Mertz, Elinor | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3092026 | 135.73 | 4,308 | 584,725 | 54,035,291 | Form |
| 65 | Mertz, Elinor | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 130.00 | 3,750 | 487,500 | 52,314,169 | Form |
| 66 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 2252026 | 121.97 | 58,000 | 7,074,274 | 41,959,591 | Form | |
| 67 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Direct | Sell | 2242026 | 125.29 | 4,260 | 533,735 | 6,170,562 | Form |
| 68 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 2112026 | 121.15 | 58,000 | 7,026,717 | 48,704,234 | Form | |
| 69 | Mertz, Elinor | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 130.00 | 3,750 | 487,500 | 53,368,887 | Form |
| 70 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 1282026 | 133.28 | 58,000 | 7,730,261 | 61,310,963 | Form | |
| 71 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 1142026 | 138.45 | 58,000 | 8,030,004 | 71,718,319 | Form | |
| 72 | Mertz, Elinor | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 135.94 | 3,750 | 509,775 | 56,317,210 | Form |
| 73 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 12312025 | 136.70 | 58,000 | 7,928,858 | 78,743,809 | Form | |
| 74 | Balogh, Aristotle N | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 12232025 | 134.79 | 2,565 | 345,745 | 22,252,562 | Form |
| 75 | Balogh, Aristotle N | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 135.00 | 15,263 | 2,060,505 | 22,374,393 | Form |
| 76 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 12172025 | 130.56 | 58,000 | 7,572,587 | 82,778,171 | Form | |
| 77 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | 2016 Legacy Trust B | Sell | 12162025 | 131.16 | 51,230 | 6,719,536 | 6,014,398 | Form |
| 78 | Balogh, Aristotle N | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 128.93 | 650 | 83,804 | 21,855,085 | Form |
| 79 | Chesky, Brian | CEO and Chairman | 2016 Legacy Trust B | Sell | 12162025 | 130.17 | 8,770 | 1,141,588 | 12,637,395 | Form |
| 80 | Mertz, Elinor | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12162025 | 130.00 | 7,500 | 975,000 | 54,343,887 | Form |
| 81 | Mertz, Elinor | Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 125.00 | 4,630 | 578,750 | 53,191,238 | Form |
| 82 | Balogh, Aristotle N | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 125.19 | 16,875 | 2,112,627 | 21,302,945 | Form |
| 83 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 12102025 | 123.24 | 36,370 | 4,482,076 | 1,419,673 | Form |
| 84 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 12102025 | 121.96 | 141,063 | 17,203,650 | 1,404,947 | Form |
| 85 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Trust | Sell | 12092025 | 123.70 | 30,311 | 3,749,439 | 1,425,012 | Form |
| 86 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 122.70 | 23,761 | 2,915,578 | 6,867,545 | Form |
| 87 | Balogh, Aristotle N | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 12092025 | 120.92 | 650 | 78,598 | 22,616,423 | Form |
| 88 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Direct | Sell | 12052025 | 120.52 | 77,527 | 9,343,182 | 6,423,246 | Form |
| 89 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Direct | Sell | 12052025 | 120.22 | 39,806 | 4,785,430 | 15,727,651 | Form |
| 90 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Direct | Sell | 12042025 | 120.03 | 5,162 | 619,572 | 20,480,115 | Form |
| 91 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 12032025 | 118.47 | 58,000 | 6,871,275 | 81,983,195 | Form | |
| 92 | Balogh, Aristotle N | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 116.04 | 549 | 63,706 | 21,779,112 | Form |
| 93 | Blecharczyk, Nathan | Chief Strategy Officer | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 116.71 | 3,307 | 385,960 | 20,516,827 | Form |
| 94 | Balogh, Aristotle N | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 116.71 | 600 | 70,026 | 21,968,935 | Form |
| 95 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 11262025 | 114.22 | 232,000 | 26,500,188 | 1,713 | Form | |
| 96 | Balogh, Aristotle N | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 114.51 | 600 | 68,706 | 21,623,524 | Form |
| 97 | Balogh, Aristotle N | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 11172025 | 121.38 | 600 | 72,828 | 23,645,549 | Form |
| 98 | Gebbia, Joseph | Sycamore Trust | Sell | 11132025 | 120.66 | 236,000 | 28,474,625 | 27,993,814 | Form | |
| 99 | Balogh, Aristotle N | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 11102025 | 122.38 | 600 | 73,428 | 23,913,783 | Form |
| 100 | Balogh, Aristotle N | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 11032025 | 125.47 | 600 | 75,282 | 24,592,869 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Nov 8, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consulta Ltd | $227.3 Mil | 11.3% | 13 | ADD +20.0% | 13F |
| GCQ FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY Ltd | $59.4 Mil | 7.9% | 11 | TRIM -15.0% | 13F |
| Long Walk Management LP | $20.5 Mil | 6.0% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Shannon River Fund Management LLC | $31.2 Mil | 6.0% | 28 | New | 13F |
| Two Creeks Capital Management, LP | $45.0 Mil | 4.8% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Independent Franchise Partners LLP | $666.2 Mil | 4.7% | 26 | Hold | 13F |
| Akre Capital Management LLC | $256.9 Mil | 4.2% | 19 | TRIM -41.4% | 13F |
| Par Capital Management Inc | $94.4 Mil | 2.7% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $6.9 Mil | 2.4% | 24 | TRIM -43.8% | 13F |
| California First Leasing Corp | $7.4 Mil | 2.4% | 39 | ADD +16.1% | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $224.3 Mil | 2.4% | 29 | TRIM -29.5% | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $12.7 Mil | 2.2% | 15 | ADD +7.3% | 13F |
| Ask Capital Management, LLC | $7.6 Mil | 1.4% | 3 | Hold | 13F |
| SC US (TTGP), LTD. | $64.5 Mil | 0.7% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon River Fund Management LLC | $31.2 Mil | 6.0% | 28 | New | 13F |
| Long Walk Management LP | $20.5 Mil | 6.0% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Consulta Ltd | $227.3 Mil | 11.3% | 13 | ADD +20.0% | 13F |
| California First Leasing Corp | $7.4 Mil | 2.4% | 39 | ADD +16.1% | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $12.7 Mil | 2.2% | 15 | ADD +7.3% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archon Partners LLC | $9.0 Mil | 0.9% | 42 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $6.9 Mil | 2.4% | 24 | TRIM -43.8% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Akre Capital Management LLC | $256.9 Mil | 4.2% | 19 | TRIM -41.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $224.3 Mil | 2.4% | 29 | TRIM -29.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| GCQ FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY Ltd | $59.4 Mil | 7.9% | 11 | TRIM -15.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Franchise Partners LLP | $666.2 Mil | 4.7% | 26 | Hold | 13F |
| Akre Capital Management LLC | $256.9 Mil | 4.2% | 19 | TRIM -41.4% | 13F |
| Consulta Ltd | $227.3 Mil | 11.3% | 13 | ADD +20.0% | 13F |
| SRS Investment Management, LLC | $224.3 Mil | 2.4% | 29 | TRIM -29.5% | 13F |
| Par Capital Management Inc | $94.4 Mil | 2.7% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| SC US (TTGP), LTD. | $64.5 Mil | 0.7% | 36 | Hold | 13F |
| GCQ FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY Ltd | $59.4 Mil | 7.9% | 11 | TRIM -15.0% | 13F |
| Two Creeks Capital Management, LP | $45.0 Mil | 4.8% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Shannon River Fund Management LLC | $31.2 Mil | 6.0% | 28 | New | 13F |
| Long Walk Management LP | $20.5 Mil | 6.0% | 11 | New | 13F |
| Atmos Capital Gestao de Recursos Ltda. | $12.7 Mil | 2.2% | 15 | ADD +7.3% | 13F |
| Ask Capital Management, LLC | $7.6 Mil | 1.4% | 3 | Hold | 13F |
| California First Leasing Corp | $7.4 Mil | 2.4% | 39 | ADD +16.1% | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $6.9 Mil | 2.4% | 24 | TRIM -43.8% | 13F |
ABNB Trade Sentinel
High Conviction
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Airbnb is demonstrating a clear re-acceleration in growth, with Q3 Nights Booked growth of 16% more than doubling that of its largest peers. Management is executing a multi-layered growth strategy by expanding into hotels and international markets, while consistently raising full-year revenue and margin guidance, signaling durable momentum.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Two-Sided Marketplace (Transactional)(Nights & Seats Booked) * (Average Daily Rate) * (Take Rate) Operating leverage on a capital-light model, driven by scaling transaction volume over a fixed cost base, and increasing efficiency through technology and AI, particularly in areas like customer support.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Yes. Accelerating KPIs, expansion beyond core homes, and flawless execution suggest the company is successfully transitioning from post-IPO rebuilding to a new, sustainable growth phase driven by product innovation and market expansion.
- Gross Booking Value growth accelerated to 21% in Q3 2026, a 5 percentage point increase from Q2.
- Nights and Seats Booked grew 16%, significantly accelerating from Q2.
- Full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance was raised to 'high teens' from 'at least mid-teens'.
- Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance was raised to approximately 36%.
- A new $12 billion share repurchase program was approved by the board.
PRIMARY RISK
Pervasive and evolving local regulations on short-term rentals represent a structural threat to supply. New York City's 'de facto ban' provides a template for other major cities, which could materially constrain the company's most profitable core business segment and cap its long-term growth potential, regardless of success in newer, lower-margin verticals.
- New York City passed regulations in 2023 resulting in a 'de facto ban' of short-term rentals.
- The company is subject to a wide variety of evolving laws and regulations across its markets.
- The IRS claims the company owes $1.3 billion in tax plus penalties and interest from a dispute.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Booking Value (GBV) Growth | 21% year-over-year for Q3 2026 - Accelerating | Gross Booking Value growth accelerated significantly in the latest quarter, reversing a slight deceleration seen in Q2. The 21% growth rate marks a meaningful step-up in momentum and was the highest in more than two years. |
| Nights and Seats Booked Growth | 16% year-over-year for Q3 2026 - Accelerating | The growth in transaction volume has shown consistent and strong acceleration throughout the year, with the latest quarter's 16% growth being a major inflection point. Management noted this growth was broad-based, with every region delivering double-digit nights growth. |
New Growth Vectors vs. Core Regulatory Drag
BULL VIEW
New initiatives like hotels (a $900B market), international expansion (India +60%), and AI-driven conversion will compound, creating a growth rate that more than offsets the isolated, albeit significant, regulatory headwinds in specific municipalities like New York City.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating Nights Booked growth (+16%) from new verticals and markets outrun the persistent threat of regulatory bans in core urban markets?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The bull view is currently winning. Growth is accelerating across every region, and the company raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth outlook to the 'high teens.'
BEAR VIEW
The core homes business is the high-margin profit engine. A spreading 'de facto ban' on short-term rentals across major cities will structurally impair supply and profitability faster than lower-margin hotel or service expansions can compensate, leading to deceleration.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
by the end of the year | Neighborhood Pages Expansion Watch: The company plans to expand its Neighborhood pages feature to over 1,500 neighborhoods globally. |
Later this year | AI Voice Support Launch Watch: The company will begin introducing AI voice support for customer service. |
Later this year | AI Home Comparison Feature Watch: The company will introduce an AI-powered home comparison feature for guests. |
in the first half of next year | AI Travel Agent Launch Watch: The company plans to begin rolling out its proprietary AI travel agent to guests. |
2/8/2027 - 2/16/2027 | Negative Peer Read-Through Watch: Peer commentary on booking trends, ADRs, and regional demand, particularly any signs of a slowdown. |
2/9/2027 | Hilton Earnings Report Watch: Peer Hilton Worldwide (HLT) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/10/2027 | Guidance Disappointment at Q4 Earnings Watch: Q1 2027 guidance for revenue or bookings growth that implies a significant deceleration from Q4's expected levels. |
2/10/2027 | Company Q4 Earnings Report Watch: The company is scheduled to report its Q4 2026 earnings. |
2/16/2027 | Booking Holdings Earnings Report Watch: Peer Booking Holdings (BKNG) is scheduled to report earnings. |
No set date | Regulatory Headwinds Materialize Watch: Announcements of new short-term rental regulations or enforcement actions from major global cities. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-11-05 | Q3 Results and Raised Outlook Details: The company reported Q3 revenue growth of 19% and raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth forecast to the "high teens" (T-1, ART-5). A new $12 billion share repurchase program was also approved (T-1). | +7.7% $176.37 -> $189.99 |
2026-11-05 | American Express Partnership Launch Details: The company launched what its CEO called its "biggest partnership ever, an exclusive partnership with American Express," which brings over 1 million listings to Amex Travel (T-1). | +7.7% $176.37 -> $189.99 |
2026-09-14 | Housing Construction Fund Announced Details: Press reports in September stated that Airbnb set up a $250 million fund to invest in housing construction, pledging to fill financing gaps for stalled developments. | -1.1% $170.19 -> $168.32 |
2026-08-06 | Q2 Earnings Beat and Raise Details: The company reported Q2 revenue growth of 17% and raised its full-year 2026 outlook, citing strong travel demand (REWIND-1). The stock had a two-day reaction of 17.0% (MKT-1). | +16.8% $152.49 -> $178.07 |
2026-06-05 | Analyst Projects Growth Drivers Details: An analyst note in June projected that expansion into hotels and experiences, along with higher take rates, could add meaningful incremental revenue and help sustain double-digit growth. | +0.5% $133.72 -> $134.43 |
2026-05-25 | One-Stop-Shop Platform Update Details: Following its Summer 2026 product release, press reports in May noted the company is positioning itself as a broader travel “one-stop shop” beyond its core lodging marketplace. | -1.2% $134.25 -> $132.68 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: ABNB trades at roughly 36% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 14% for the S&P 500 (2.6x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
BKNG - Booking Holdings
Established OTA LeaderOffers broader exposure to the entire travel ecosystem, including flights and rental cars, with a more mature and profitable business model, reflected in its 32.8% operating margin.
EXPE - Expedia Group
Value-Focused OTAStrong position in the price-sensitive travel segment and owns the VRBO brand, a direct competitor in vacation rentals, providing a different angle on the alternative accommodation market.
A re-accelerating growth story, moving beyond its core homes business to become a comprehensive, AI-native travel marketplace.
After years of rebuilding its technology and operational structure post-IPO, Airbnb is now in 'growth mode,' as stated by its CEO. This re-acceleration is driven by faster product innovation enabled by AI, expansion into international markets, and the scaling of new verticals like hotels and services. The company is leveraging its strong brand and user base to capture a larger share of the entire travel journey.
Continued acceleration in GBV and Nights Booked growth, successful scaling of the hotel and services businesses, and evidence that the new AI agent is driving higher conversion and user engagement.
A slowdown in growth metrics, significant new regulatory restrictions in key markets, or failure of new verticals like hotels to gain traction or prove accretive to the core business.
Short-term fluctuations in travel demand due to specific geopolitical events in limited regions, which management has indicated the business is insulated from.
Repricing Catalyst
The company's raised full-year 2026 guidance for revenue growth and margins, coupled with the narrative of re-accelerating growth and the upcoming launch of its proprietary AI travel agent in the first half of next year.
Single Segment
$13.9B TTM (100% of Total) · 22% MarginWhat It Is
The company operates a single segment which encompasses its global marketplace connecting guests with hosts offering stays, experiences, and services in over 220 countries and regions.
Who Pays & How
Guests and hosts both pay service fees on transactions. Guests use the platform to discover and book a diverse selection of accommodations and activities, while hosts use it to generate income by reaching a global audience.
Competition
Airbnb — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines Resources |
| Skift |
| Hotel News Now |
| Cruise Industry News |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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