AAON (AAON)


Market Price (10/5/2026): $83.06 | Market Cap: $6.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products

AAON (AAON)


Market Price (10/5/2026): $83.06
Market Cap: $6.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Building Products

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%

Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -45%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electrification of Everything, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -32%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 79x

Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5%

Key risks
AAON key risks include [1] profitability pressures from regulatory refrigerant transitions and [2] margin pressure combined with accounting scrutiny within its BASX segment.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 54%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -45%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Electrification of Everything, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Smart Buildings & Proptech. Themes include Heat Pump Technology, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -32%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 79x
5 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.8%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5%
7 Key risks
AAON key risks include [1] profitability pressures from regulatory refrigerant transitions and [2] margin pressure combined with accounting scrutiny within its BASX segment.

AAON in ETFs

Weight = AAON's share of each fund

VTI0.01%
ITOT0.01%
IWB0.01%
IJH0.17%
VB0.07%
MDYG0.34%
IJK0.30%
NUSC0.22%
+19 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 10/1/2026

AAON (AAON) stock has lost about 35% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Persistent Gross Margin Compression and Revised Outlook.

Despite reporting record Q2 2026 results on August 10, 2026, with net sales surging 101.2% year-over-year to $627.0 million and diluted EPS increasing 257.9% to $0.68, AAON's gross profit margin contracted. The gross profit margin for fiscal Q2 2026 was 24.3%, down from 26.6% in the prior-year period. This contraction was attributed to the ramp-up of new manufacturing capacity, particularly the Memphis facility, the increased use of outsourced components, and persistent inflationary cost pressures. Concurrently, while AAON raised its full-year 2026 sales growth outlook to 55%-60%, it simultaneously reduced its gross margin guidance for the full year to 25%-26% from a prior range of 27%-28%. This downward revision in profitability expectations, despite strong top-line growth, likely concerned investors.

2. Valuation Concerns and Analyst Price Target Reductions.

Even with strong operational performance, some analysts had expressed concerns regarding AAON's valuation, with one analyst downgrading the stock to a "soft Sell" in May 2026 due to "extreme valuation." Following the Q2 2026 earnings announcement on August 10, 2026, which included the revised margin guidance, the stock declined 5.89% in regular trading. Subsequently, analysts adjusted their price targets downward; for instance, Baird lowered its price target from $150 to $135, and Oppenheimer reduced its target from $145 to $125. These actions suggest that, even with impressive revenue growth, the market perceived the stock as overvalued relative to its near-term profitability outlook and operational challenges.

Show more
Updated on 10/1/2026

AAON (AAON) stock has lost about 35% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Persistent Gross Margin Compression and Revised Outlook.

Despite reporting record Q2 2026 results on August 10, 2026, with net sales surging 101.2% year-over-year to $627.0 million and diluted EPS increasing 257.9% to $0.68, AAON's gross profit margin contracted. The gross profit margin for fiscal Q2 2026 was 24.3%, down from 26.6% in the prior-year period. This contraction was attributed to the ramp-up of new manufacturing capacity, particularly the Memphis facility, the increased use of outsourced components, and persistent inflationary cost pressures. Concurrently, while AAON raised its full-year 2026 sales growth outlook to 55%-60%, it simultaneously reduced its gross margin guidance for the full year to 25%-26% from a prior range of 27%-28%. This downward revision in profitability expectations, despite strong top-line growth, likely concerned investors.

2. Valuation Concerns and Analyst Price Target Reductions.

Even with strong operational performance, some analysts had expressed concerns regarding AAON's valuation, with one analyst downgrading the stock to a "soft Sell" in May 2026 due to "extreme valuation." Following the Q2 2026 earnings announcement on August 10, 2026, which included the revised margin guidance, the stock declined 5.89% in regular trading. Subsequently, analysts adjusted their price targets downward; for instance, Baird lowered its price target from $150 to $135, and Oppenheimer reduced its target from $145 to $125. These actions suggest that, even with impressive revenue growth, the market perceived the stock as overvalued relative to its near-term profitability outlook and operational challenges.

3. Sequential Decline in Backlog Amidst Rapid Growth.

While AAON reported a robust year-over-year increase in its total backlog of 98.0% to $2.0 billion as of June 30, 2026, the backlog experienced a sequential decrease of 7.4% compared to fiscal Q1 2026. Although management noted this largely reflected accelerated backlog conversion due to improved production throughput, the sequential decline may have raised questions among investors regarding the sustainability of order intake at previous high levels or the efficiency of scaling operations, especially given the concurrent margin pressures. This could imply a heightened investor focus on the company's ability to balance rapid growth with consistent profitability and efficient execution of its substantial order book.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -34.3% change in AAON stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -51.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)630202610042026Change
Stock Price ($)126.7083.27-34.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,6171,93219.5%
Net Income Margin (%)7.3%8.2%12.8%
P/E Multiple87.743.0-51.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8282-0.5%
Cumulative Contribution-34.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2026 to 10/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAON-34.3% 
Market (SPY)3.1%47.2%
Sector (XLI)-8.2%61.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The 0.8% change in AAON stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 34.0% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)331202610042026Change
Stock Price ($)82.5983.270.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,4421,93234.0%
Net Income Margin (%)7.5%8.2%10.5%
P/E Multiple62.743.0-31.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8282-0.6%
Cumulative Contribution0.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 10/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAON0.8% 
Market (SPY)18.6%41.0%
Sector (XLI)5.3%42.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The -10.5% change in AAON stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/4/2026 was primarily driven by a -30.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)930202510042026Change
Stock Price ($)93.0483.27-10.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,2591,93253.5%
Net Income Margin (%)9.7%8.2%-15.0%
P/E Multiple62.143.0-30.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8182-0.9%
Cumulative Contribution-10.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 10/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAON-10.5% 
Market (SPY)16.5%43.1%
Sector (XLI)11.2%50.0%

Fundamental Drivers

The 48.3% change in AAON stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/4/2026 was primarily driven by a 84.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)930202310042026Change
Stock Price ($)56.1683.2748.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)1,0471,93284.5%
Net Income Margin (%)14.2%8.2%-42.0%
P/E Multiple30.743.039.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)8182-0.9%
Cumulative Contribution48.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2023 to 10/4/2026
ReturnCorrelation
AAON48.3% 
Market (SPY)86.2%44.7%
Sector (XLI)74.3%52.0%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
AAON Return20%-5%48%60%-35%9%92%
Peers Return43%-26%85%57%12%14%298%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%104%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AAON Win Rate58%42%67%75%50%56% 
Peers Win Rate78%37%60%72%48%51% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%44% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AAON Max Drawdown-26%-40%-25%-24%-47%-50% 
Peers Max Drawdown-17%-46%-22%-18%-35%-27% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CARR, TT, JCI, LII, VRT. See AAON Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/2/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventAAONS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-35.9%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven56.1%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven394 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-21.5%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.5%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven55 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-38.8%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven63.4%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven189 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-27.8%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven38.5%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven85 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-11.2%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven12.6%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven21 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-16.9%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven20.3%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven36 days62 days

Compare to CARR, TT, JCI, LII, VRT

In The Past

AAON's stock fell -35.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 56.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventAAONS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-35.9%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven56.1%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven394 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-21.5%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven27.5%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven55 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-38.8%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven63.4%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven189 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-27.8%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven38.5%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven85 days140 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-36.4%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven57.2%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven502 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-38.3%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven62.2%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven42 days1085 days
Summer 2007 Credit Crunch
  % Loss-43.3%-8.6%
  % Gain to Breakeven76.4%9.5%
  Time to Breakeven1284 days47 days

Compare to CARR, TT, JCI, LII, VRT

In The Past

AAON's stock fell -35.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 56.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About AAON (AAON)

AAON, Inc. is a leading designer, manufacturer, and seller of advanced air conditioning and heating equipment primarily for commercial and industrial applications across the United States and Canada. The company specializes in providing a comprehensive suite of HVAC solutions, focusing on energy efficiency and technological innovation to meet diverse building climate control needs.

Its extensive product portfolio includes a wide array of specialized units such as rooftop units, chillers, air handling units, and geothermal/water-source heat pumps. AAON also offers highly specialized solutions like data center cooling systems through its BasX segment, cleanroom systems, and packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, alongside essential components like coils and controls.

AAON's products serve a broad spectrum of commercial industries, including retail, manufacturing, educational institutions, hospitality (lodging), supermarkets, and critical infrastructure like data centers and medical/pharmaceutical facilities. The company distributes its equipment through an established network of independent manufacturer representatives and its internal sales force, catering to the specific environmental control requirements of these diverse sectors.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • AAON is like **the Trane or Carrier for commercial and industrial buildings.**
  • AAON is like **the Trane or Carrier for critical environments like data centers and cleanrooms.**
  • AAON is like **a custom-engineered Trane or Carrier.**

AI Analysis | Feedback

AAON (symbol: AAON) primarily manufactures a range of commercial and industrial heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment and related components:

  • Rooftop Units: Integrated heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems designed for outdoor installation on building rooftops.
  • Data Center Cooling Solutions: Specialized cooling systems optimized for maintaining precise temperature and humidity in data centers.
  • Cleanroom Systems: HVAC systems engineered to control airborne particulate contamination in critical environments like cleanrooms.
  • Chillers: Equipment that removes heat from a liquid via a refrigeration cycle, often used to cool water for air conditioning or process cooling.
  • Packaged Outdoor Mechanical Rooms: Prefabricated, self-contained enclosures housing HVAC and other mechanical equipment for various applications.
  • Air Handling Units (AHUs): Large units containing fans, coils, filters, and dampers used to condition and circulate air as part of an HVAC system.
  • Makeup Air Units: Systems designed to condition and introduce fresh outdoor air into a building, replacing air exhausted by ventilation systems.
  • Energy Recovery Units (ERUs): HVAC systems that recover energy from exhaust air to pre-condition incoming outdoor air, improving efficiency.
  • Condensing Units: Outdoor sections of air conditioning or heat pump systems that house the compressor and condenser coil.
  • Geothermal/Water-Source Heat Pumps: Systems that use the earth or a body of water as a heat source or heat sink to provide heating and cooling.
  • Coils: Components within HVAC systems responsible for heat exchange, such as evaporator coils, condenser coils, and heating coils.
  • Controls: Electronic or pneumatic systems used to regulate and manage the operation of HVAC equipment.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Major Customers of AAON (AAON)

AAON, Inc. sells its air conditioning and heating equipment primarily to other companies and commercial industries in the United States and Canada. The provided company description does not list specific major customer company names.

However, it identifies the following categories of industries and sectors as its customer base:

  • Retail
  • Manufacturing
  • Educational institutions
  • Lodging facilities
  • Supermarkets
  • Data centers
  • Medical and pharmaceutical facilities
  • Other commercial industries

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Matt Tobolski, Chief Executive Officer

Matt Tobolski became CEO of AAON in May 2025. He previously served as President and Chief Operating Officer of AAON since January 2024. Prior to these roles at AAON, he co-founded BASX Solutions in 2013, which AAON acquired in December 2021. Before co-founding BASX, Matt was the President and CEO of Tobolski Watkins Engineering, a structural and earthquake engineering firm, from 2008 to 2017. He then served as an Executive Advisor at Structural Integrity Associates from 2017 to 2020, following the acquisition of Tobolski Watkins Engineering.

Rebecca Thompson, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer

Rebecca Thompson has served as AAON's Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer since 2021. She is a licensed certified public accountant and a member of the Choctaw Tribe. Prior to her CFO role, she held the position of Chief Accounting Officer at AAON from 2012 to 2021. Before joining AAON, she spent 11 years as a Senior Manager in the assurance division at Grant Thornton, LLP, and began her career at Arthur Andersen.

Norman H. Asbjornson, Director and Founder

Norman H. Asbjornson founded AAON in 1988, taking the company public three years later. He served as CEO until May 2020, then transitioned to Executive Chairman until May 2022, and currently remains a non-independent director. He established AAON through a management buyout of the John Zink Company's heating and air conditioning division, which he previously led.

Gary D. Fields, Director and Special Advisor

Gary D. Fields served as AAON's Chief Executive Officer from May 2020 until May 2025, and as President from November 2016 until January 2024. He was elected as a director in 2015 and now serves as a special advisor. He has over 35 years of experience in the HVAC industry, including a tenure as an HVAC equipment sales representative and part of the ownership group at Texas AirSystems. He was also the owner and President of GKR Partners LTD, an HVAC business development consulting firm that provided services to AAON and its sales representatives.

Casey Kidwell, Chief Administrative Officer

Casey Kidwell oversees human resources, security, safety, and IT functions at AAON, ensuring the company's culture is upheld and team members are equipped for success. He previously served as AAON's Director of Administration since 2021. Prior to joining AAON, he spent nearly ten years in various HR and IT roles at WPX Energy.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to AAON's business are:

  1. Refrigerant Transition and Regulatory Changes: AAON faces significant challenges and potential cost increases due to regulatory changes mandating a transition to new refrigerants. This "unprecedented refrigerant transition" has already caused operational disruptions, impacted sales, and required the company to update building codes and re-certify components for its equipment.
  2. Operational Challenges from ERP Implementation and Supply Chain Disruptions: The implementation of a new Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system has proven to be a "painful" and disruptive process for AAON. This has led to delays in lead times, significantly impacted manufacturing and supply operations, and contributed to a sharp decline in gross margins and earnings per share. Additionally, the company is exposed to broader supply chain disruptions.
  3. Economic Conditions and Demand in Non-residential Construction: As a manufacturer of air conditioning and heating equipment for commercial industries, AAON's business is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. Economic downturns can lead to reduced demand in the commercial and industrial new construction markets, thereby impacting the company's sales and profitability. The company has already experienced "weaker macroeconomic conditions in the nonresidential construction sector" which created obstacles for its business.

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The addressable markets for AAON's main products and services in North America are sized as follows:
  • Commercial HVAC Equipment Market: The North America HVAC equipment market, of which commercial accounts commanded 59.75% of the revenue in 2025, is estimated to be approximately USD 18.6 billion in 2025. The overall North America HVAC equipment market is projected to grow from USD 31.12 billion in 2025 to USD 48.66 billion by 2031, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.93% during 2026-2031. The U.S. alone is expected to have a commercial HVAC system market revenue share of USD 17.38 billion in 2025.
  • Data Center Cooling Solutions Market: The North America data center cooling market is estimated to be around USD 7.20 billion to USD 8.27 billion in 2025. This market is projected to grow significantly, with estimates ranging from reaching USD 12.58 billion by 2030 (CAGR of 11.8%) to USD 23.73 billion by 2032 (CAGR of 24.13%) and US$ 45.06 billion by 2035 (CAGR of 18.8%).
  • Cleanroom Systems Market: The North America cleanroom technology market was approximately USD 3.0 billion to USD 3.35 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 3.55 billion in 2025. The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of around 5.4% to 5.5% from 2025 to 2030, reaching approximately USD 4.17 billion by 2030.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for AAON (AAON)

Over the next 2-3 years, AAON is expected to drive future revenue growth through several key initiatives and market trends:

  • Expanding Data Center Cooling Solutions: Strong and increasing demand from the data center market, particularly for BASX-branded air-side and liquid cooling solutions, is a significant growth driver. The BASX segment experienced a 141% increase in backlog to $1.3 billion in 2025, with a book-to-bill ratio of 2.4, indicating robust future revenue. AAON anticipates its data center business will grow to over $1 billion within a few years.
  • Innovation in Energy-Efficient HVAC Systems: The company's focus on product innovation, particularly with energy-efficient solutions like the Alpha Class Extreme Series rooftop units equipped with cold climate heat pumps, is expected to fuel growth. These units are designed to operate effectively at temperatures as low as negative 20 degrees Fahrenheit, aligning with increasing demands for decarbonization and electrification in buildings. Alpha Class unit sales exceeded $100 million in 2024 and are projected to grow by multiples in the coming years.
  • Increased Manufacturing Capacity and Operational Efficiencies: Strategic investments in expanding manufacturing capacity, including new facilities in Longview, Texas, and Memphis, Tennessee, are crucial for meeting high product demand. These expansions, coupled with ongoing ERP system upgrades, are anticipated to enhance production throughput and operational efficiencies, directly supporting revenue growth and margin improvement. AAON forecasts an 18%-20% increase in sales for 2026 due to these strategic investments and operational enhancements.
  • Strong Backlog and National Accounts Strategy: A record backlog of $1.83 billion at the end of 2025 provides significant visibility into future revenue streams. Additionally, AAON's national accounts strategy is gaining traction, demonstrating the company's ability to capture market share and secure larger projects.
  • Strategic Pricing and Favorable Product Mix: While less explicitly detailed, pricing is a contributor to sales growth, with expectations of mid-single-digit contributions to sales growth in previous years. The company also benefits from value-based pricing linked to lifecycle energy savings and a product mix that emphasizes configurable, factory-integrated options, which tend to increase average selling prices. Projected improvements in gross margins for 2026 also suggest continued pricing power and an optimizing product mix.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • AAON announced a $100 million share repurchase program authorization in March 2026.

Capital Expenditures

  • Capital expenditures for 2025 were $204.9 million.
  • Planned capital expenditures for 2026 are $190 million.
  • The primary focus of these capital expenditures includes expanding manufacturing capacity, especially the Memphis facility for BASX data center equipment, and strategic investments in production expansion and ERP implementation to support future growth, operational optimization, and increased production throughput.

Better Bets vs. AAON (AAON)

Peer Outperformance in Building Products

AAON has outperformed 81% of its 32 Building Products peers over 5Y. Building Products ranks 11th of 23 industries in Industrials by median 5Y return.
Share of Building Products constituents that AAON has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
51%
of 37 industry peers · -14.9% return
3Y
69%
of 35 industry peers · 50.6% return
5Y
81%
of 32 industry peers · 88.8% return
No Building Products peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten AAON by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Building Products is AAON's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Construction & Engineering 31 9.9%133.1%195.8% CDNL 2264% · STRL 2206% · FIX 2205%
Marine Transportation 5 88.0%70.6%178.4% HOS 39847% · MATX 195% · KEX 178%
Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment 13 3.5%54.9%103.6% CAT 379% · ALSN 253% · WAB 231%
Aerospace & Defense 54 -12.8%64.8%71.1% ATI 1031% · FTAI 826% · HWM 631%
Trading Companies & Distributors 19 5.0%37.3%52.1% DXPE 518% · AIT 284% · WCC 224%
Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components 72 14.5%52.3%50.2% CRS 1129% · PSIX 1065% · EROC 627%
Rail Transportation 7 20.0%62.7%48.3% FSTR 138% · RAIL 64% · CSX 61%
Cargo Ground Transportation 16 37.3%5.9%34.2% XPO 287% · R 220% · CVLG 155%
Electrical Components & Equipment 39 7.3%67.1%31.8% POWL 2405% · BE 1469% · VRT 996%
Diversified Support Services 33 9.3%33.6%30.2% LIME 3065% · TH 369% · CXW 274%
Building Products ← 33 -14.9%3.0%17.7% LMB 624% · GFF 356% · PPIH 269%
Industrial Conglomerates 17 9.6%6.0%-0.5% RCMT 614% · CSW 133% · CSL 73%
Agricultural & Farm Machinery 17 11.6%4.0%-4.5% BLBD 175% · DE 117% · GENC 59%
Environmental & Facilities Services 30 -18.6%21.1%-8.2% CECO 924% · ADUR 438% · NVRI 314%
Passenger Ground Transportation 3 -29.5%50.8%-9.1% UBER 49% · CAR -9% · LYFT -71%
Research & Consulting Services 13 -12.4%-28.6%-15.8% HURN 221% · CRAI 72% · GRNQ 37%
Security & Alarm Services 9 -38.7%37.8%-20.5% CIX 156% · MG 110% · NL 70%
Office Services & Supplies 9 13.5%18.9%-28.5% PBI 181% · TILE 123% · HNI 47%
Data Processing & Outsourced Services 6 -36.4%-16.5%-28.6% EXLS 43% · BR 4% · G -25%
Passenger Airlines 11 13.1%21.1%-35.8% LTM 2944% · UAL 121% · DAL 95%
Air Freight & Logistics 12 -32.1%-21.8%-37.2% CHRW 103% · FDX 79% · EXPD 77%
Human Resource & Employment Services 22 1.7%-17.6%-40.0% BBSI 63% · ADP 41% · HQI 4%
Airport Services 3 -76.8%-78.7%-71.2% JOBY -35% · ASLE -71% · UP -100%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

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Peer Comparisons

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Financials

AAONCARRTTJCILIIVRTMedian
NameAAON Carrier .Trane Te.Johnson .Lennox I.Vertiv  
Mkt Price83.0655.11463.88156.24356.20252.20204.22
Mkt Cap6.845.6102.595.012.497.070.3
Rev LTM1,93222,10822,21024,9955,30211,48016,794
Op Inc LTM2151,5593,9853,6111,0692,2271,893
FCF LTM-1311,9283,5461,6597392,9241,794
FCF 3Y Avg-741,5892,9452,0376571,7091,649
CFO LTM872,3873,8772,0328953,3542,210
CFO 3Y Avg1162,0623,3042,4548371,9682,015

Growth & Margins

AAONCARRTTJCILIIVRTMedian
NameAAON Carrier .Trane Te.Johnson .Lennox I.Vertiv  
Rev Chg LTM53.5%-1.6%7.0%6.8%-2.1%26.2%6.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg24.3%5.9%9.7%5.4%3.5%21.7%7.8%
Rev Chg Q101.2%3.9%10.6%9.3%3.0%24.1%9.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM19.5%1.1%2.8%2.3%0.8%5.9%2.6%
Op Inc Chg LTM34.6%-36.2%4.4%24.6%-0.3%40.6%14.5%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg11.2%-3.9%14.6%18.7%13.8%54.6%14.2%
Op Mgn LTM11.1%7.1%17.9%14.4%20.2%19.4%16.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.7%9.1%17.8%12.2%19.4%17.3%16.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.5%-0.2%-0.2%0.6%0.1%0.6%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM4.5%10.8%17.5%8.1%16.9%29.2%13.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.7%9.6%16.0%10.9%16.0%20.2%13.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-6.8%8.7%16.0%6.6%13.9%25.5%11.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-4.5%7.4%14.2%9.1%12.5%17.5%10.8%

Valuation

AAONCARRTTJCILIIVRTMedian
NameAAON Carrier .Trane Te.Johnson .Lennox I.Vertiv  
Mkt Cap6.845.6102.595.012.497.070.3
P/S3.52.14.63.82.38.43.7
P/Op Inc31.829.325.726.311.643.627.8
P/EBIT31.925.425.932.511.844.828.9
P/E42.937.434.826.515.656.036.1
P/CFO78.919.126.446.713.828.927.7
Total Yield2.8%4.4%3.7%4.8%7.9%1.9%4.1%
Dividend Yield0.5%1.7%0.9%1.0%1.5%0.1%0.9%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.1%2.8%3.2%3.2%3.3%2.6%3.0%
D/E0.10.30.00.10.20.00.1
Net D/E0.10.20.00.10.20.00.1

Returns

AAONCARRTTJCILIIVRTMedian
NameAAON Carrier .Trane Te.Johnson .Lennox I.Vertiv  
1M Rtn4.6%-7.7%3.6%8.1%-8.4%-10.1%-2.1%
3M Rtn-22.7%-21.1%-2.8%11.3%-37.3%-16.1%-18.6%
6M Rtn2.3%-0.4%9.1%18.2%-21.2%-3.4%1.0%
12M Rtn-15.2%-6.2%10.4%45.3%-34.5%57.6%2.1%
3Y Rtn50.2%7.3%138.0%220.4%-1.4%563.1%94.1%
1M Excs Rtn10.7%-5.0%5.2%11.8%-5.1%-2.5%1.4%
3M Excs Rtn-26.4%-23.6%-7.0%7.3%-39.5%-23.2%-23.4%
6M Excs Rtn-15.0%-17.7%-8.2%0.8%-38.5%-20.8%-16.3%
12M Excs Rtn-28.1%-21.0%-5.0%30.1%-48.0%41.2%-13.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-32.6%-76.4%58.3%120.9%-82.7%519.1%12.9%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
AAON Oklahoma849865902667466
AAON Coil Products34116414013891
BASX3161991601184
Eliminations-65-27-33-34-27
Total1,4421,2011,169889535


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$83.27 
Market Cap ($ Bil)6.8 
First Trading Date12/16/1992 
Distance from 52W High-43.7% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$83.20$97.63
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA0.1%-14.7%
 3M1YR
Volatility51.8%60.5%
Downside Capture337.52212.28
Upside Capture149.53157.78
Correlation (SPY)47.4%43.1%
AAON Betas & Captures as of 9/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.782.202.372.342.021.56
Up Beta-1.901.142.573.042.261.41
Down Beta3.480.590.912.532.271.44
Up Capture261%251%161%204%231%556%
Bmk +ve Days6162766132424
Stock +ve Days11193164124402
Down Capture79%314%338%208%153%111%
Bmk -ve Days16263760120328
Stock -ve Days10223261127349

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AAON
AAON-12.9%60.5%-0.01-
Sector ETF (XLI)11.5%17.3%0.4650.1%
Equity (SPY)16.2%13.0%0.8843.1%
Gold (GLD)6.8%29.6%0.2224.0%
Commodities (DBC)44.9%20.8%1.67-8.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)1.5%13.6%-0.1511.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-28.9%44.3%-0.6414.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AAON
AAON13.9%47.2%0.43-
Sector ETF (XLI)12.6%17.6%0.5550.9%
Equity (SPY)13.1%17.2%0.5844.1%
Gold (GLD)18.4%18.9%0.7912.0%
Commodities (DBC)10.3%19.6%0.410.2%
Real Estate (VNQ)0.7%18.8%-0.0728.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)14.6%52.2%0.4514.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with AAON
AAON16.5%41.3%0.51-
Sector ETF (XLI)13.2%20.0%0.5849.6%
Equity (SPY)15.3%17.9%0.7245.8%
Gold (GLD)11.5%16.4%0.574.9%
Commodities (DBC)8.2%18.1%0.376.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.2%20.7%0.1631.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)64.1%66.2%1.0412.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9152026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 83120263.8%
Average Daily Volume1.1 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.5 days
Basic Shares Quantity82.2 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares5.9%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 9/11/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/10/2026-5.9%-7.4%-16.2%
5/7/202631.5%37.7%35.0%
3/2/20263.5%-12.7%-22.6%
11/6/20257.0%9.2%-11.1%
8/11/2025-10.5%-1.2%-2.8%
5/1/20255.7%4.9%5.5%
2/27/2025-22.9%-19.7%-21.3%
11/7/202416.1%11.8%8.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131313
# Negative111111
Median Positive7.0%9.2%8.4%
Median Negative-3.4%-7.3%-9.1%
Max Positive31.5%37.7%35.0%
Max Negative-22.9%-19.7%-22.6%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/10/2026-5.9%-7.4%-16.2%
5/7/202631.5%37.7%35.0%
3/2/20263.5%-12.7%-22.6%
11/6/20257.0%9.2%-11.1%
8/11/2025-10.5%-1.2%-2.8%
5/1/20255.7%4.9%5.5%
2/27/2025-22.9%-19.7%-21.3%
11/7/202416.1%11.8%8.4%
8/1/2024-1.3%-1.0%9.9%
5/2/2024-13.7%-14.5%-18.6%
2/28/2024-3.4%-6.8%1.5%
11/6/20232.0%2.3%11.0%
8/3/2023-5.9%-9.4%-5.4%
5/4/20237.2%-0.5%-5.3%
2/27/202311.6%14.2%16.7%
11/7/202214.0%18.7%19.6%
8/8/2022-3.1%2.6%-6.6%
5/5/20228.7%10.6%18.0%
2/28/2022-2.4%-7.3%-4.2%
11/4/2021-0.1%3.7%8.3%
8/5/20216.4%9.6%6.3%
5/6/20213.5%3.8%1.0%
2/25/2021-1.6%-4.9%-9.1%
11/5/20203.0%2.0%1.0%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131313
# Negative111111
Median Positive7.0%9.2%8.4%
Median Negative-3.4%-7.3%-9.1%
Max Positive31.5%37.7%35.0%
Max Negative-22.9%-19.7%-22.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/10/202610-Q
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202503/02/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/11/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/27/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/28/202410-K
09/30/202311/06/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/27/202310-K
09/30/202211/07/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202608/10/202610-Q
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202503/02/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/11/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202402/27/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/02/202410-Q
12/31/202302/28/202410-K
09/30/202311/06/202310-Q
06/30/202308/03/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/27/202310-K
09/30/202211/07/202210-Q
06/30/202208/08/202210-Q
03/31/202205/05/202210-Q
12/31/202102/28/202210-K
09/30/202111/04/202110-Q
06/30/202108/05/202110-Q
03/31/202105/06/202110-Q
12/31/202002/25/202110-K
09/30/202011/05/202010-Q
06/30/202008/06/202010-Q
03/31/202005/07/202010-Q
12/31/201902/27/202010-K
09/30/201910/31/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 10/4/2026

Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/10/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Depreciation & AmortizationReported95.00 Mil97.50 Mil100.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 97.50 Mil for 2026
2026 YoY Sales GrowthReported55.0%57.5%60.0% 15.0%RaisedGuidance: 42.5% for 2026
2026 Gross Profit MarginReported25.0%25.5%26.0% -2.0%LoweredGuidance: 27.5% for 2026
2026 SG&A % of salesReported13.0%13.5%14.0% -1.0%LoweredGuidance: 14.5% for 2026


Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Depreciation & AmortizationReported95.00 Mil97.50 Mil100.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 97.50 Mil for 2026
2026 Revenue GrowthReported40.0%42.5%45.0%123.7%23.5%RaisedGuidance: 19.0% for 2026
2026 Gross Profit MarginReported27.0%27.5%28.0% -2.5%LoweredGuidance: 30.0% for 2026
2026 SG&A % of salesReported14.0%14.5%15.0% -1.5%LoweredGuidance: 16.0% for 2026

Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 3/2/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2026 Depreciation & AmortizationReported95.00 Mil97.50 Mil100.00 Mil   
2026 Revenue GrowthReported18.0%19.0%20.0% 4.0%Higher NewActual: 15.0% for 2025
2026 Gross Profit MarginReported29.0%30.0%31.0% 1.8%Higher NewActual: 28.25% for 2025
2026 SG&A % of salesReported 16.0%  -0.8%Lower NewActual: 16.75% for 2025
2026 Capital ExpendituresReported 190.00 Mil 5.6% Higher NewActual: 180.00 Mil for 2025

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricSourceLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
2025 YoY Sales GrowthReported 15.0% 15.4%2.0%RaisedGuidance: 13.0% for 2025
2025 Gross Profit MarginReported28.0%28.25%28.5% -0.2%LoweredGuidance: 28.5% for 2025
2025 Non-GAAP adjusted SG&A % of salesReported16.5%16.75%17.0%   
2025 Capital ExpendituresReported 180.00 Mil    

Insider Activity

Updated 9/16/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Stewart, David Raymond IRAsBuy916202674.661,00074,660298,640Form
2Shaub, MatthewExecutive Vice PresidentDirectBuy831202676.4245734,924239,653Form
3Thompson, RebeccaChief Accounting Officer401(k) PlanSell6052026143.424,230  Form
4Fields, Gary D DirectSell6012026140.2019,0002,663,8002,138,330Form
5Wichman, Gordon DouglasExecutive Vice PresidentDirectSell5272026140.393,000421,1701,543,869Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Stewart, David Raymond IRAsBuy916202674.661,00074,660298,640Form
2Shaub, MatthewExecutive Vice PresidentDirectBuy831202676.4245734,924239,653Form
3Thompson, RebeccaChief Accounting Officer401(k) PlanSell6052026143.424,230  Form
4Fields, Gary D DirectSell6012026140.2019,0002,663,8002,138,330Form
5Wichman, Gordon DouglasExecutive Vice PresidentDirectSell5272026140.393,000421,1701,543,869Form
6Fields, Gary D DirectSell5272026140.3421,1732,971,4194,806,926Form
7Kidwell, CaseyChief Administration OfficerDirectSell5152026138.303,153436,0711,861,979Form
8Fields, Gary D DirectSell5132026134.0731,2714,192,3984,592,051Form
9Thompson, RebeccaChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell5112026136.599,6721,321,0983,780,948Form
10Thompson, RebeccaChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell4282026100.2740040,1082,775,574Form
11Thompson, RebeccaChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell4272026100.2121,9142,196,0022,773,913Form
12Thompson, RebeccaChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell4242026100.107,292729,9292,770,868Form
13Thompson, RebeccaChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell4222026100.112,287228,9522,771,145Form
14Kidwell, CaseyChief Administration OfficerDirectSell316202690.005,225470,2501,139,580Form
15Wakefield, Stephen EExecutive Vice PresidentDirectBuy1215202580.851,00080,8501,029,220Form
16Wakefield, Stephen EExecutive Vice President401(k) PlanBuy1215202577.594,141321,3001,180,299Form
17Wakefield, Stephen EExecutive Vice PresidentDirectBuy1215202582.251,00082,250964,792Form
18Fields, Gary D DirectSell11132025105.143,553373,5622,769,388Form
19Fields, Gary D DirectSell11122025105.2126,7462,813,9472,771,231Form
20Shaub, MatthewExecutive Vice PresidentDirectBuy915202581.7042834,968145,671Form
21Thompson, RebeccaChief Financial OfficerDirectSell905202581.099,350758,1981,978,287Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Oct 5, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Spyglass Capital Management LLC$71.1 Mil5.0%25TRIM -28.4%13F
Senvest Management, LLC$25.7 Mil0.9%49ADD +63.9%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Senvest Management, LLC$25.7 Mil0.9%49ADD +63.9%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Nepsis Inc.$9.0 Mil2.8%30ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Spyglass Capital Management LLC$71.1 Mil5.0%25TRIM -28.4%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Spyglass Capital Management LLC$71.1 Mil5.0%25TRIM -28.4%13F
Senvest Management, LLC$25.7 Mil0.9%49ADD +63.9%13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 10/4/2026