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Carrier Global (CARR)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $53.09 | Market Cap: $45.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products

Carrier Global (CARR)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $53.09
Market Cap: $45.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Building Products

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.4%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.8%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Building Management Systems, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.4%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Building Management Systems, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -44%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.8%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

CARR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points highlighting why Carrier Global (CARR) stock moved by -22.3% from approximately July 31, 2025, to November 18, 2025:

1. Weakened Full-Year 2025 Guidance and Soft 2026 Outlook. Carrier Global's stock declined significantly following its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, as the company's guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 and its preliminary framework for fiscal year 2026 fell short of market expectations. Specifically, the full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance was set at approximately $2.65, below the analyst consensus of $2.99. Analysts noted that the Q3 results and guidance suggested potential downside to 2026 estimates due to a softer exit rate.

2. Decline in Residential HVAC Market Demand and Operational Profitability. A significant factor contributing to the stock drop was the pronounced weakness in the residential HVAC market, particularly in North America and Europe. Carrier's Q3 2025 adjusted operating profit was down 21% primarily due to lower volume in its Climate Solutions Americas (CSA) Residential business. The company's European Residential Light Commercial (RLC) business also experienced declining boiler performance, adding pressure to operational profitability.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CARR Return-45%-23%41%20%-21%50%
Peers Return22%36%-6%40%42%13%250%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CARR Win Rate89%83%42%50%75%30% 
Peers Win Rate57%70%42%62%62%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CARR Max Drawdown--6%-37%-1%-7%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-5%-34%-14%-10%-31% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EMR, FIX, LII, AAON, THRM. See CARR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCARRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-41.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven281 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-25.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven13 days148 days

Compare to EMR, FIX, LII, AAON, THRM


In The Past

Carrier Global's stock fell -41.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/27/2021. A -41.6% loss requires a 71.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Carrier Global (CARR)

Better Bets than Carrier Global (CARR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CARR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.3%-10.3%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.2%-10.2%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-3.4%-3.4%-4.8%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.1%-7.1%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-4.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.3%-10.3%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.2%-10.2%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-3.4%-3.4%-4.8%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.1%-7.1%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-4.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Carrier Global

Financials

CARREMRFIXLIIAAONTHRMMedian
NameCarrier .Emerson .Comfort .Lennox I.AAON Gentherm  
Mkt Price53.13126.93919.82459.8991.9534.71109.44
Mkt Cap45.171.332.516.17.51.124.3
Rev LTM22,05817,7798,3235,3451,3161,4696,834
Op Inc LTM2,2323,3391,1121,0621351051,087
FCF LTM1,1272,741799534-25667667
FCF 3Y Avg1,4812,043677543-4153610
CFO LTM1,6053,172928684-18124806
CFO 3Y Avg1,9222,425779722117106751

Growth & Margins

CARREMRFIXLIIAAONTHRMMedian
NameCarrier .Emerson .Comfort .Lennox I.AAON Gentherm  
Rev Chg LTM1.9%4.8%27.7%3.8%8.8%-0.1%4.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.3%24.9%29.0%5.2%20.7%10.6%15.6%
Rev Chg Q-6.8%3.9%35.2%-4.8%17.4%4.1%4.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.8%1.0%8.3%-1.3%4.5%1.1%1.0%
Op Mgn LTM10.1%18.8%13.4%19.9%10.3%7.1%11.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.0%17.5%10.3%18.3%16.4%7.1%13.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.8%0.5%1.2%0.3%-2.2%-0.6%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM7.3%17.8%11.2%12.8%-1.4%8.5%9.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.6%14.7%11.9%14.0%10.0%7.3%10.9%
FCF/Rev LTM5.1%15.4%9.6%10.0%-19.5%4.5%7.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.5%12.4%10.3%10.5%-2.8%3.6%8.9%

Valuation

CARREMRFIXLIIAAONTHRMMedian
NameCarrier .Emerson .Comfort .Lennox I.AAON Gentherm  
Mkt Cap45.171.332.516.17.51.124.3
P/S2.04.03.93.05.70.73.5
P/EBIT15.322.230.415.156.913.918.7
P/E11.326.938.819.274.834.630.7
P/CFO28.122.535.023.6-418.08.523.0
Total Yield10.5%4.1%2.8%5.7%1.7%2.9%3.5%
Dividend Yield1.6%0.4%0.2%0.5%0.4%0.0%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.9%3.3%5.4%3.0%-0.5%4.1%3.2%
D/E0.30.20.00.10.10.20.1
Net D/E0.20.2-0.00.10.10.10.1

Returns

CARREMRFIXLIIAAONTHRMMedian
NameCarrier .Emerson .Comfort .Lennox I.AAON Gentherm  
1M Rtn-5.1%-1.4%11.2%-12.1%-5.4%1.7%-3.2%
3M Rtn-19.8%-3.3%32.3%-23.2%12.5%-1.0%-2.1%
6M Rtn-29.5%7.0%95.9%-23.6%-13.3%25.4%-3.2%
12M Rtn-27.8%1.8%107.4%-24.0%-30.8%-18.0%-21.0%
3Y Rtn26.2%43.7%643.8%76.9%77.8%-53.1%60.3%
1M Excs Rtn-5.2%-1.5%11.0%-12.2%-5.6%1.6%-3.4%
3M Excs Rtn-24.4%-7.2%30.5%-28.9%7.8%-5.9%-6.5%
6M Excs Rtn-41.3%-4.9%84.0%-35.4%-25.2%13.5%-15.0%
12M Excs Rtn-41.0%-11.9%95.5%-36.6%-42.9%-32.2%-34.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-41.2%-25.4%583.8%11.9%9.7%-120.3%-7.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC)15,13913,40811,3909,4789,712
Refrigeration3,8183,8834,1273,3333,792
Corporate & Other-6    
Eliminations and other -440-419-340-396
Fire & Security 3,5705,5154,9855,500
General corporate expenses 0   
Total18,95120,42120,61317,45618,608


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC)2,2752,6101,7382,4621,563
Refrigeration428483476357532
Corporate & Other-543    
Eliminations and other -80-96-184-156
Fire & Security 1,630662584708
General corporate expenses -128-135-136-156
Total2,1604,5152,6453,0832,491


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Cash and cash equivalents9,852    
Goodwill7,520    
Assets held for sale5,093    
Heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC)2,899    
Fixed assets, net2,160    
Equity method investments1,140    
Intangible assets, net945    
Refrigeration833    
Other assets, current728    
Future income tax benefits718    
Operating lease right-of-use assets421    
Other assets310    
Eliminations and other171    
Pension and post-retirement assets32    
Total32,822    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,247,942
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025-13.4%
Average Daily Volume7,520,206
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.50
Basic Shares Quantity848,800,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/20250.8%-0.7% 
7/29/2025-10.6%-17.0%-17.1%
5/1/202511.6%12.3%14.2%
2/11/2025-1.6%0.5%-1.2%
10/24/2024-8.8%-7.7%-4.7%
7/25/2024-1.8%3.2%5.4%
4/25/20249.2%11.6%17.9%
2/6/2024-3.5%-0.4%2.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101214
# Negative13119
Median Positive3.4%5.9%11.3%
Median Negative-1.8%-2.0%-2.1%
Max Positive11.9%12.3%48.5%
Max Negative-10.6%-17.0%-17.1%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023206202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022207202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Viessmann Maximilian6052025Sell70.304,267,425299,999,9783,820,209,840Form