Tearsheet

Carrier Global (CARR)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $52.43 | Market Cap: $44.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products

Carrier Global (CARR)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $52.43
Market Cap: $44.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Building Products

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -42%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.8%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
  Key risks
CARR key risks include [1] a significant debt load and margin pressures from rising operating costs, Show more.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Building Management Systems, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Smart Buildings & Proptech, Electrification of Everything, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Building Management Systems, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -42%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -6.8%
5 Key risks
CARR key risks include [1] a significant debt load and margin pressures from rising operating costs, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CARR Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback



1. Weakness in Americas residential HVAC business: A Q4 2025 earnings pre-announcement highlighted significant weakness in the Americas residential HVAC business, a key revenue driver, causing investors to re-evaluate near-term expectations for Carrier Global.

2. Lowered FY 2025 EPS Guidance: Carrier Global's full-year 2025 earnings per share (EPS) guidance was adjusted downwards to an estimated $2.60, reflecting reduced expectations and increased uncertainty about the company's future revenue performance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CARR Return45%-23%41%20%-21%
Peers Return25%35%-14%36%31%5%170%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CARR Win Rate89%83%42%50%75%25% 
Peers Win Rate60%75%37%52%60%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CARR Max Drawdown-6%-37%-1%-7%-25% 
Peers Max Drawdown-38%-5%-36%-9%-6%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JCI, TT, LII, HON, IR. See CARR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCARRS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-41.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven281 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-25.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven13 days148 days

Compare to EMR, FIX, LII, AAON, THRM


In The Past

Carrier Global's stock fell -41.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/27/2021. A -41.6% loss requires a 71.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Carrier Global (CARR)

Better Bets than Carrier Global (CARR)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CARR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.3%-5.3%-10.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.3%-5.3%-10.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Carrier Global

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CARRJCITTLIIHONIRMedian
NameCarrier .Johnson .Trane Te.Lennox I.Honeywel.Ingersol. 
Mkt Price52.40116.38382.30487.47199.8978.12158.13
Mkt Cap44.573.485.117.1127.030.958.9
Rev LTM22,05823,59621,0515,34540,6707,45821,555
Op Inc LTM2,2322,8283,9561,0627,6921,4772,530
FCF LTM1,1279652,5335346,1641,2501,188
FCF 3Y Avg1,4811,4482,4315435,2121,2001,464
CFO LTM1,6051,3992,9366847,4851,3831,502
CFO 3Y Avg1,9221,9062,7777226,3361,3281,914

Growth & Margins

CARRJCITTLIIHONIRMedian
NameCarrier .Johnson .Trane Te.Lennox I.Honeywel.Ingersol. 
Rev Chg LTM1.9%2.8%8.6%3.8%7.5%4.2%4.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.3%4.6%10.8%5.2%5.2%9.4%5.2%
Rev Chg Q-6.8%3.1%5.5%-4.8%7.0%5.1%4.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.8%0.8%1.5%-1.3%1.7%1.3%1.1%
Op Mgn LTM10.1%12.0%18.8%19.9%18.9%19.8%18.9%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.0%11.1%17.4%18.3%19.5%19.1%17.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.8%-0.4%0.4%0.3%-0.9%-0.1%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM7.3%5.9%13.9%12.8%18.4%18.5%13.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.6%8.3%14.4%14.0%16.4%18.7%14.2%
FCF/Rev LTM5.1%4.1%12.0%10.0%15.2%16.8%11.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.5%6.3%12.6%10.5%13.5%16.9%11.6%

Valuation

CARRJCITTLIIHONIRMedian
NameCarrier .Johnson .Trane Te.Lennox I.Honeywel.Ingersol. 
Mkt Cap44.573.485.117.1127.030.958.9
P/S2.33.14.53.53.34.43.4
P/EBIT17.233.424.017.415.227.820.7
P/E12.722.332.022.121.860.022.2
P/CFO31.652.532.027.217.923.729.4
Total Yield9.3%5.8%4.0%5.0%6.8%1.8%5.4%
Dividend Yield1.5%1.3%0.9%0.4%2.2%0.1%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.9%3.1%3.4%3.0%4.0%3.7%3.2%
D/E0.20.10.00.10.30.10.1
Net D/E0.20.10.00.10.20.10.1

Returns

CARRJCITTLIIHONIRMedian
NameCarrier .Johnson .Trane Te.Lennox I.Honeywel.Ingersol. 
1M Rtn-1.4%0.0%-7.4%6.0%1.9%6.0%1.0%
3M Rtn-13.4%8.8%-4.0%-10.5%0.7%-1.1%-2.5%
6M Rtn-24.5%13.3%-8.5%-10.6%-3.4%-3.3%-6.0%
12M Rtn-24.4%44.5%-1.5%-25.2%-7.1%-19.8%-13.5%
3Y Rtn30.9%94.6%132.5%104.3%7.8%51.3%73.0%
1M Excs Rtn-2.1%-0.7%-8.1%5.3%1.2%5.3%0.2%
3M Excs Rtn-15.3%6.3%-6.1%-11.1%0.1%-5.5%-5.8%
6M Excs Rtn-36.9%0.9%-20.9%-23.0%-15.8%-15.6%-18.3%
12M Excs Rtn-38.3%32.1%-14.4%-37.1%-15.9%-33.7%-24.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-42.1%20.4%57.6%25.2%-63.0%-24.0%-1.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC)15,13913,40811,3909,4789,712
Refrigeration3,8183,8834,1273,3333,792
Corporate & Other-6    
Eliminations and other -440-419-340-396
Fire & Security 3,5705,5154,9855,500
General corporate expenses 0   
Total18,95120,42120,61317,45618,608


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC)2,2752,6101,7382,4621,563
Refrigeration428483476357532
Corporate & Other-543    
Eliminations and other -80-96-184-156
Fire & Security 1,630662584708
General corporate expenses -128-135-136-156
Total2,1604,5152,6453,0832,491


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Cash and cash equivalents9,852    
Goodwill7,520    
Assets held for sale5,093    
Heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC)2,899    
Fixed assets, net2,160    
Equity method investments1,140    
Intangible assets, net945    
Refrigeration833    
Other assets, current728    
Future income tax benefits718    
Operating lease right-of-use assets421    
Other assets310    
Eliminations and other171    
Pension and post-retirement assets32    
Total32,822    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity11,520,035
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-11.8%
Average Daily Volume7,599,279
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.52
Basic Shares Quantity848,800,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/20250.8%-0.7%-7.4%
7/29/2025-10.6%-17.0%-17.1%
5/1/202511.6%12.3%14.2%
2/11/2025-1.6%0.5%-1.2%
10/24/2024-8.8%-7.7%-4.7%
7/25/2024-1.8%3.2%5.4%
4/25/20249.2%11.6%17.9%
2/6/2024-3.5%-0.4%2.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive101214
# Negative13119
Median Positive3.4%5.9%11.3%
Median Negative-1.8%-2.0%-2.3%
Max Positive11.9%12.3%48.5%
Max Negative-10.6%-17.0%-17.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023206202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022207202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Gitlin David L.Chairman and CEO11252025Buy52.6219,3001,015,57228,124,182Form