FreightCar America (RAIL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $9.435 | Market Cap: $300.9 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation
FreightCar America (RAIL)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $9.435Market Cap: $300.9 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Rail Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 29% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Railcar Modernization, Freight Technology, Show more. | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 72% |
| Key risksRAIL key risks include [1] its high customer concentration and [2] significant balance sheet weaknesses, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Railcar Modernization, Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -6.4% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 72% |
| Key risksRAIL key risks include [1] its high customer concentration and [2] significant balance sheet weaknesses, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
RAIL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The FreightCar America (RAIL) stock experienced significant movement in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, driven by several key factors.
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Performance. FreightCar America reported robust third-quarter 2025 results on November 10, 2025, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The company's revenue increased by 42% year-over-year to $160.5 million, exceeding forecasts, and its earnings per share (EPS) of $0.24 beat the estimated $0.23. This strong financial performance, including a record adjusted EBITDA of $17 million, was a major catalyst for the stock's surge.
2. Increased Railcar Deliveries and Revenue Growth. The company's Q3 2025 results highlighted a substantial increase in railcar deliveries, reaching 1,304 units compared to 961 units in the same period last year. This growth in deliveries and manufacturing revenue, particularly from its Castaños, Mexico facility, demonstrated strong operational efficiencies and market demand.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RAIL Return | 16% | 53% | -13% | -16% | 232% | 6% | 360% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 33% | -4% | 28% | 26% | 5% | 135% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RAIL Win Rate | 42% | 33% | 42% | 33% | 58% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 62% | 47% | 53% | 60% | 58% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RAIL Max Drawdown | -63% | -7% | -15% | -29% | -11% | -50% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -46% | -3% | -25% | -13% | -9% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TRN, GBX, GATX, WAB, ANDE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RAIL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -71.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 249.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 299 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 182.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 145 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -91.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1007.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 305.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to CP, FSTR, UNP, CSX, NSC
In The Past
FreightCar America's stock fell -71.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/30/2021. A -71.4% loss requires a 249.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RAIL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 16.3% | 16.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.6% | 5.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -0.4% | -0.4% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for FreightCar America
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 50.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| Rev LTM | 2,708 |
| Op Inc LTM | 355 |
| FCF LTM | 131 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 246 |
| CFO LTM | 418 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 486 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 8.1 |
| P/E | 19.3 |
| P/CFO | 7.4 |
| Total Yield | 8.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | 1.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 12.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 69.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -6.3% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/10/2025 | 11.8% | -2.9% | 12.9% |
| 8/4/2025 | 4.8% | -8.5% | -15.4% |
| 3/12/2025 | 17.5% | 3.0% | -24.4% |
| 11/12/2024 | -35.3% | -40.0% | -37.9% |
| 8/12/2024 | 16.8% | 64.8% | 165.3% |
| 3/18/2024 | 10.9% | 19.0% | 11.2% |
| 11/6/2023 | -7.4% | -13.3% | -12.6% |
| 8/7/2023 | 4.4% | -0.3% | -10.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 13.2% | 15.4% | 32.0% |
| Median Negative | -6.0% | -9.4% | -15.4% |
| Max Positive | 24.1% | 64.8% | 165.3% |
| Max Negative | -35.3% | -40.0% | -42.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11102025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8042025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3122025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8122024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 3182024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11072022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |