FreightCar America (RAIL)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $7.63 | Market Cap: $244.3 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation
FreightCar America (RAIL)
Market Price (5/6/2026): $7.63Market Cap: $244.3 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Rail Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 5.9% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Railcar Modernization, Freight Technology, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -33% Key risksRAIL key risks include [1] its high customer concentration and [2] significant balance sheet weaknesses, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.6%, FCF Yield is 5.9% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Railcar Modernization, Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -33% |
| Key risksRAIL key risks include [1] its high customer concentration and [2] significant balance sheet weaknesses, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. FreightCar America significantly missed revenue and adjusted earnings expectations in both its Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 reports.
For Q4 2025, reported on March 9, 2026, the company's revenue of $125.6 million fell short of analyst estimates by approximately $22.1 million, and its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.16 missed expectations by $0.03. This trend continued with the Q1 2026 results, released on May 4, 2026, where revenue of $64.3 million was a substantial miss against projected revenue of $96.38 million, representing a 33.3% year-over-year decline. The adjusted EPS for Q1 2026 was a loss of -$0.04, significantly below the forecasted $0.0567. These recurring misses indicate a weaker financial performance than anticipated by the market.
2. The company experienced a notable decline in railcar deliveries and softening new order activity.
In the first quarter of 2026, railcar deliveries decreased to 577 units, down from 710 units in the first quarter of 2025. Concurrently, net railcar orders softened to 709 in Q1 2026, compared to 1,250 orders in the prior year. This reduction in core manufacturing volume and new orders signals a challenging industry environment and directly impacts the company's revenue generation.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -32.9% change in RAIL stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -64.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 11.51 | 7.72 | -32.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 513 | 469 | -8.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 17.4% | 6.2% | -64.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 4.1 | 8.4 | 105.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 32 | 32 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -32.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RAIL | -32.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 39.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.5% | 48.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -13.2% change in RAIL stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.1% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.89 | 7.72 | -13.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 466 | 469 | 0.7% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.6 | 0.5 | -13.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 32 | 32 | -0.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -13.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RAIL | -13.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 39.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 11.9% | 40.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.6% change in RAIL stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 62.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 5.78 | 7.72 | 33.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 559 | 469 | -16.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.3 | 0.5 | 62.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 32 | -2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 33.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RAIL | 33.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 39.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 33.2% | 41.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 159.9% change in RAIL stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026 was primarily driven by a 149.5% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5052026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.97 | 7.72 | 159.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 365 | 469 | 28.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.5 | 149.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 26 | 32 | -19.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 159.9% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/5/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RAIL | 159.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 29.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 80.3% | 29.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RAIL Return | 53% | -13% | -16% | 232% | 24% | -27% | 234% |
| Peers Return | 33% | -4% | 28% | 26% | 3% | 26% | 168% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RAIL Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 33% | 58% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 47% | 53% | 60% | 57% | 72% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 40% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RAIL Max Drawdown | -7% | -15% | -29% | -11% | -50% | -29% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -3% | -25% | -13% | -9% | -22% | -1% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TRN, GBX, GATX, WAB, ANDE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RAIL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 121.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 266 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -18.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.3% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 6 days |
In The Past
FreightCar America's stock fell -54.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 121.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | RAIL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 121.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 266 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.3% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 6 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -52.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 146 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 183 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 146.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2012 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
FreightCar America's stock fell -54.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 121.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About FreightCar America (RAIL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe FreightCar America (RAIL):
The General Motors of freight railcars.
The Boeing of freight railcars.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Freight Railcars: Designs, manufactures, and sells a range of new railcars for transporting bulk commodities and containerized freight, including hoppers, gondolas, and flat cars.
- Railcar Components: Sells new forged, cast, and fabricated parts for various railcars.
- Used Railcar Sales: Sells previously owned railcars.
- Railcar Leasing: Provides railcars for lease.
- Railcar Rebuilding and Conversion: Offers services to restore, overhaul, or modify existing railcars.
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```htmlFreightCar America (RAIL) sells primarily to other companies. Its major customers include:
- Financial institutions
- Railroads
- Shippers
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null
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Nicholas J. Randall, President and Chief Executive Officer
Nicholas J. Randall was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of FreightCar America, Inc. effective May 1, 2024. He joined the company in 2023 as Chief Operating Officer. Mr. Randall has over 20 years of global experience in leading engineering and manufacturing operations at world-class companies and, since joining FreightCar America, has managed its operations and overseen the completion of its manufacturing campus in Castaños, Mexico.
Michael Riordan, Chief Financial Officer
Michael Riordan has served as Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer of FreightCar America, Inc. since March 2022. He joined the company in November 2020, initially serving as Chief Accounting Officer and Controller until his promotion. Prior to joining FreightCar America, Mr. Riordan was Controller at InnerWorkings from 2017 to 2020. He also held several financial management positions at Zekelman Industries (including its subsidiary Wheatland Tube, LLC) from 2013 to 2017 and various positions at PricewaterhouseCoopers earlier in his career. Mr. Riordan holds a Bachelor's Degree in Accounting & Finance from Miami University and is a Certified Public Accountant.
Matthew Tonn, Chief Commercial Officer
Matthew Tonn has served as Chief Commercial Officer of FreightCar America, Inc. since September 2019. He leads the company's sales and marketing efforts.
Juan Carlos Fuentes Sierra, Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer
Juan Carlos Fuentes Sierra has served as Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer of FreightCar America, Inc. since April 2022.
Celia Perez, Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Celia Perez is the Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary for FreightCar America, Inc.
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```htmlKey Risks to FreightCar America (RAIL)
-
Cyclical Demand and Industry Weakness: FreightCar America operates in a highly cyclical industry, and its performance is significantly impacted by the demand for new railcars. Recent reports indicate "ongoing industry uncertainty," "macro headwinds," and "sluggish freight demand" are weighing on order conversion, leading to a significant decrease in backlog and a miss on revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026. If industry conditions do not improve as expected, it could have a negative impact on future revenue and profitability.
-
Intense Competition: The company faces substantial competition within the North American railcar industry from established rivals such as CRRC, Greenbrier (GBX), and Trinity Industries (TRN). This intense competition, especially during periods of low market demand and excess manufacturing capacity, could lead to loss of market share and hinder FreightCar America's growth.
-
High Debt and Capital-Intensive Business: FreightCar America's business is capital-intensive, leading to a significant amount of debt. The company ended 2025 with $152 million in total debt. While currently cash flow positive, an extended period of negative cash flow, potentially exacerbated by weak industry demand, could make managing this high debt a challenge.
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nullAI Analysis | Feedback
FreightCar America (NASDAQ: RAIL) operates in several addressable markets primarily within North America, focusing on the design, manufacture, and sale of various railcars, railcar components, and related services. The key addressable markets for FreightCar America's main products and services are: * **North American Freight Railcar Manufacturing Market:** This market, which involves the production and sale of new freight railcars, is estimated to be a $4.2 billion industry. FreightCar America manufactures various types of freight cars, including open top hoppers, covered hopper cars, gondolas, and flat cars. The estimated annual demand for new railcars in this market ranges from 45,000 to 60,000 units. * **North American Railcar Leasing Market:** FreightCar America also engages in leasing railcars. This market was valued at USD 11.43 billion globally in 2025, with North America dominating with a market share of 72.44% in the same year. The North America railcar leasing market is projected to reach USD 7.9 billion by 2031, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% from 2025 to 2031. Another estimate indicates a growth of USD 8.30 billion at a CAGR of 9.1% between 2024 and 2029 for the North America railcar leasing market. * **North America Freight Railcar Parts Market:** The company manufactures and sells forged, cast, and fabricated parts for various railcars. The North America freight railcar parts market is expected to grow from USD 4.5 billion in 2024 to approximately USD 9.5 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 7.8% during this forecast period. Another source estimates the North America freight railcar parts market to be valued at USD 4.93 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 8.13 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.4% from 2025 to 2032. North America was the largest region in the global freight railcar parts market, generating about USD 3.52 billion in 2023.AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for FreightCar America (RAIL) over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion of Aftermarket Business: FreightCar America is strategically growing its aftermarket business, which is expected to contribute to more stable and recurring revenue. The company completed the acquisition of Carly Railcar Components, with this acquisition projected to add $13 million to $15 million in aftermarket revenue in 2026. Overall aftermarket revenue is anticipated to be around $40 million to $41 million in 2026. This segment saw significant growth in 2025, with aftermarket revenue growing by 48.8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter.
- Growth in the Tank Car Market and Retrofit Programs: The company is making strategic investments to expand its presence in the tank car market. FreightCar America is progressing with tank car retrofit programs, with shipments for these programs expected to begin in the latter half of 2026 and continue into 2027. Capital expenditures in 2026 are partly allocated to support the vertical integration of tank car manufacturing.
- Conversion of Existing Backlog into Deliveries: FreightCar America concluded 2025 with a backlog of 1,926 railcar units, valued at $137.5 million. This backlog provides significant visibility for production in 2026, and the company is focused on converting these orders into profitable deliveries. The backlog represents a diversified mix of both new railcar builds and conversion programs.
- Anticipated Industry Demand Recovery and Replacement Cycle: Management notes that underlying fleet fundamentals in the North American railcar market remain strong due to aging equipment and deferred replacements across various car types. Long-term industry demand for railcar replacements is estimated to be between 35,000 and 40,000 units annually, which is considerably higher than the 25,000-30,000 deliveries expected for the overall industry in 2026. Additionally, an estimated 150,000 to 200,000 railcars are expected to be retired over the next four years, indicating a predictable driver for future replacement demand.
- Market Share Gains: FreightCar America increased its delivery market share by nearly 300 basis points in 2025, despite an overall decline in total industry deliveries. The company expects to maintain or further grow its market share in the coming years, driven by its strong commercial strategy, efficient operational execution, and ability to meet customer requirements.
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Share Issuance
- FreightCar America issued warrants to OC III LFE II LP and its affiliates in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023.
- The number of outstanding shares for FreightCar America increased from 15.95 million in 2021 to 31.67 million in 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In 2025, FreightCar America acquired Carly Railcar Components to expand its aftermarket activities, enhancing its growing parts business and supporting more stable, recurring revenue.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the year ended December 31, 2024, totaled $5.0 million, a decrease year over year primarily due to the deferral of certain projects to 2026.
- Capital expenditures for 2025 amounted to $3.4 million.
- Anticipated capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to range between $7.0 million and $10.0 million, with a focus on production equipment enhancements and supporting manufacturing operations, including a portion allocated to the tank car retrofit program and future tank car production.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| FreightCar America Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Is FreightCar America Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to RAIL.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 64.72 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.8 |
| Rev LTM | 2,480 |
| Op Inc LTM | 279 |
| FCF LTM | 122 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 165 |
| CFO LTM | 427 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 447 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -17.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -4.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -15.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 22.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2.8 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 10.7 |
| P/EBIT | 8.1 |
| P/E | 16.0 |
| P/CFO | 12.3 |
| Total Yield | 8.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| D/E | 0.9 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 29.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 36.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 111.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 21.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 7.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 21.4% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $7.72 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/06/2005 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -47.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $9.55 | $9.80 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -19.2% | -21.2% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 66.1% | 65.8% |
| Downside Capture | 2.66 | 1.47 |
| Upside Capture | 164.18 | 223.68 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 38.4% | 38.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.60 | 1.64 | 1.77 | 2.02 | 2.07 | 1.37 |
| Up Beta | 1.16 | 0.97 | 1.12 | 1.36 | 2.35 | 1.45 |
| Down Beta | 8.74 | -0.95 | 0.23 | 1.26 | 1.19 | 0.92 |
| Up Capture | 111% | 92% | 193% | 318% | 370% | 545% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 20 | 33 | 61 | 117 | 359 |
| Down Capture | 306% | 362% | 265% | 205% | 170% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 7 | 21 | 29 | 60 | 128 | 367 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RAIL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAIL | 9.1% | 65.0% | 0.39 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 30.0% | 15.4% | 1.50 | 41.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 27.8% | 12.5% | 1.73 | 39.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 40.6% | 27.2% | 1.23 | 14.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 50.1% | 18.0% | 2.16 | 0.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.4% | 0.53 | 24.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.3% | 42.2% | -0.34 | 18.2% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RAIL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAIL | -1.0% | 71.1% | 0.30 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.8% | 17.4% | 0.58 | 30.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 29.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.2% | 17.9% | 0.92 | 9.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.0% | 19.1% | 0.60 | 10.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.4% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 21.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.9% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 15.3% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RAIL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAIL | -8.5% | 73.7% | 0.21 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.8% | 19.9% | 0.61 | 31.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 27.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.4% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 5.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 13.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 21.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.4% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 7.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 3/9/2026 | -21.1% | -35.6% | -32.5% |
| 11/10/2025 | 11.8% | -2.9% | 12.9% |
| 8/4/2025 | 4.8% | -8.5% | -15.4% |
| 3/12/2025 | 17.5% | 3.0% | -24.4% |
| 11/12/2024 | -35.3% | -40.0% | -37.9% |
| 8/12/2024 | 16.8% | 64.8% | 165.3% |
| 3/18/2024 | 10.9% | 19.0% | 11.2% |
| 11/6/2023 | -7.4% | -13.3% | -12.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 13.2% | 17.2% | 32.0% |
| Median Negative | -7.4% | -10.4% | -15.4% |
| Max Positive | 24.1% | 64.8% | 165.3% |
| Max Negative | -35.3% | -40.0% | -37.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/18/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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