FreightCar America (RAIL)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $4.25 | Market Cap: $139.4 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation
FreightCar America (RAIL)
Market Price (11/7/2026): $4.25Market Cap: $139.4 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Rail Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -46% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 13% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Railcar Modernization, Freight Technology, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -20% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 61% Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.6% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14% Key risksRAIL key risks include [1] its high customer concentration and [2] significant balance sheet weaknesses, Show more. |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -46% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Railcar Modernization, Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -103%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -20% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 61% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.6% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -14% |
| Key risksRAIL key risks include [1] its high customer concentration and [2] significant balance sheet weaknesses, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Updated on 11/1/2026
FreightCar America (RAIL) stock has lost about 45% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Cancellation of a major tank car retrofit order led to a substantial downward revision of the full-year fiscal 2026 outlook. FreightCar America announced on October 19, 2026, the removal of 1,285 railcars from its backlog, citing an undisclosed customer's likely inability to meet contractual obligations for a tank car retrofit order. This critical development resulted in a significant cut to its fiscal 2026 guidance: railcar delivery expectations were lowered from a range of 3,500–3,900 units to 3,100–3,300 units; revenue guidance was reduced from $410–$460 million to $370–$410 million; and Adjusted EBITDA projections were sharply cut from $36–$44 million to $15–$19 million, representing a reduction of approximately 57-58% at the midpoints. This announcement alone triggered an approximate 31.4% drop in the stock price on October 20, 2026.
2. Preliminary fiscal Q3 2026 results showed significant year-over-year declines in key financial metrics. Released concurrently with the updated outlook on October 19, 2026, preliminary unaudited results for fiscal Q3 2026 (which ended September 30, 2026, as the company's fiscal year ends December 31) indicated a sharp downturn. Railcar deliveries fell to 662 units, a nearly 50% decrease compared to 1,304 units in fiscal Q3 2025. Revenue was projected to be in the range of $75–$77 million, a reduction of approximately 52-53% from $160.5 million reported in fiscal Q3 2025. Adjusted EBITDA was anticipated to be near breakeven, ranging from $(0.3) million to $0.3 million, a substantial decline from $17.0 million in the prior-year period.
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FreightCar America (RAIL) stock has lost about 45% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Cancellation of a major tank car retrofit order led to a substantial downward revision of the full-year fiscal 2026 outlook. FreightCar America announced on October 19, 2026, the removal of 1,285 railcars from its backlog, citing an undisclosed customer's likely inability to meet contractual obligations for a tank car retrofit order. This critical development resulted in a significant cut to its fiscal 2026 guidance: railcar delivery expectations were lowered from a range of 3,500–3,900 units to 3,100–3,300 units; revenue guidance was reduced from $410–$460 million to $370–$410 million; and Adjusted EBITDA projections were sharply cut from $36–$44 million to $15–$19 million, representing a reduction of approximately 57-58% at the midpoints. This announcement alone triggered an approximate 31.4% drop in the stock price on October 20, 2026.
2. Preliminary fiscal Q3 2026 results showed significant year-over-year declines in key financial metrics. Released concurrently with the updated outlook on October 19, 2026, preliminary unaudited results for fiscal Q3 2026 (which ended September 30, 2026, as the company's fiscal year ends December 31) indicated a sharp downturn. Railcar deliveries fell to 662 units, a nearly 50% decrease compared to 1,304 units in fiscal Q3 2025. Revenue was projected to be in the range of $75–$77 million, a reduction of approximately 52-53% from $160.5 million reported in fiscal Q3 2025. Adjusted EBITDA was anticipated to be near breakeven, ranging from $(0.3) million to $0.3 million, a substantial decline from $17.0 million in the prior-year period.
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Updated on 11/1/2026
FreightCar America (RAIL) stock has lost about 45% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Cancellation of a major tank car retrofit order led to a substantial downward revision of the full-year fiscal 2026 outlook. FreightCar America announced on October 19, 2026, the removal of 1,285 railcars from its backlog, citing an undisclosed customer's likely inability to meet contractual obligations for a tank car retrofit order. This critical development resulted in a significant cut to its fiscal 2026 guidance: railcar delivery expectations were lowered from a range of 3,500–3,900 units to 3,100–3,300 units; revenue guidance was reduced from $410–$460 million to $370–$410 million; and Adjusted EBITDA projections were sharply cut from $36–$44 million to $15–$19 million, representing a reduction of approximately 57-58% at the midpoints. This announcement alone triggered an approximate 31.4% drop in the stock price on October 20, 2026.
2. Preliminary fiscal Q3 2026 results showed significant year-over-year declines in key financial metrics. Released concurrently with the updated outlook on October 19, 2026, preliminary unaudited results for fiscal Q3 2026 (which ended September 30, 2026, as the company's fiscal year ends December 31) indicated a sharp downturn. Railcar deliveries fell to 662 units, a nearly 50% decrease compared to 1,304 units in fiscal Q3 2025. Revenue was projected to be in the range of $75–$77 million, a reduction of approximately 52-53% from $160.5 million reported in fiscal Q3 2025. Adjusted EBITDA was anticipated to be near breakeven, ranging from $(0.3) million to $0.3 million, a substantial decline from $17.0 million in the prior-year period.
3. Weaker than anticipated profitability and an initial lowered fiscal 2026 outlook were presented in the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report. On August 3, 2026, FreightCar America reported fiscal Q2 2026 results (ended June 30, 2026), with revenue of $113.1 million, which exceeded analyst estimates. However, the company also reported a net loss of $30.1 million and a significant contraction in gross margin to 5.5% from 15.0% in fiscal Q2 2025, partly due to workforce realignment costs. Furthermore, management had already lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 outlook for railcar deliveries, revenue, and Adjusted EBITDA, citing a delayed production ramp that shifted some expected deliveries into early fiscal 2027. While the stock initially saw a positive reaction due to strong order intake, these underlying concerns about near-term profitability and delayed deliveries set a cautious tone for the period that was exacerbated by subsequent negative news.
4. Multiple analyst downgrades reflected negative investor sentiment following the revised guidance and poor performance. The significant reduction in the full-year outlook and the weak preliminary fiscal Q3 2026 results led several research firms to downgrade FreightCar America's stock. For example, Zacks Research lowered its rating from "hold" to "strong sell" on October 21, 2026, and MarketBeat reported an average "Sell" rating for the stock. These downgrades, reflecting a more pessimistic view of the company's financial prospects, contributed to and amplified the negative market reaction and the sustained downward trend in the stock price.
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FreightCar America (RAIL) stock has lost about 45% since 7/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Cancellation of a major tank car retrofit order led to a substantial downward revision of the full-year fiscal 2026 outlook. FreightCar America announced on October 19, 2026, the removal of 1,285 railcars from its backlog, citing an undisclosed customer's likely inability to meet contractual obligations for a tank car retrofit order. This critical development resulted in a significant cut to its fiscal 2026 guidance: railcar delivery expectations were lowered from a range of 3,500–3,900 units to 3,100–3,300 units; revenue guidance was reduced from $410–$460 million to $370–$410 million; and Adjusted EBITDA projections were sharply cut from $36–$44 million to $15–$19 million, representing a reduction of approximately 57-58% at the midpoints. This announcement alone triggered an approximate 31.4% drop in the stock price on October 20, 2026.
2. Preliminary fiscal Q3 2026 results showed significant year-over-year declines in key financial metrics. Released concurrently with the updated outlook on October 19, 2026, preliminary unaudited results for fiscal Q3 2026 (which ended September 30, 2026, as the company's fiscal year ends December 31) indicated a sharp downturn. Railcar deliveries fell to 662 units, a nearly 50% decrease compared to 1,304 units in fiscal Q3 2025. Revenue was projected to be in the range of $75–$77 million, a reduction of approximately 52-53% from $160.5 million reported in fiscal Q3 2025. Adjusted EBITDA was anticipated to be near breakeven, ranging from $(0.3) million to $0.3 million, a substantial decline from $17.0 million in the prior-year period.
3. Weaker than anticipated profitability and an initial lowered fiscal 2026 outlook were presented in the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report. On August 3, 2026, FreightCar America reported fiscal Q2 2026 results (ended June 30, 2026), with revenue of $113.1 million, which exceeded analyst estimates. However, the company also reported a net loss of $30.1 million and a significant contraction in gross margin to 5.5% from 15.0% in fiscal Q2 2025, partly due to workforce realignment costs. Furthermore, management had already lowered its full-year fiscal 2026 outlook for railcar deliveries, revenue, and Adjusted EBITDA, citing a delayed production ramp that shifted some expected deliveries into early fiscal 2027. While the stock initially saw a positive reaction due to strong order intake, these underlying concerns about near-term profitability and delayed deliveries set a cautious tone for the period that was exacerbated by subsequent negative news.
4. Multiple analyst downgrades reflected negative investor sentiment following the revised guidance and poor performance. The significant reduction in the full-year outlook and the weak preliminary fiscal Q3 2026 results led several research firms to downgrade FreightCar America's stock. For example, Zacks Research lowered its rating from "hold" to "strong sell" on October 21, 2026, and MarketBeat reported an average "Sell" rating for the stock. These downgrades, reflecting a more pessimistic view of the company's financial prospects, contributed to and amplified the negative market reaction and the sustained downward trend in the stock price.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -46.8% change in RAIL stock from 7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -46.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 7.97 | 4.24 | -46.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 469 | 464 | -1.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.3 | -46.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 32 | 32 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -46.8% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RAIL | -46.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | -1.6% | 15.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | -9.5% | 19.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -48.5% change in RAIL stock from 4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -44.3% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.24 | 4.24 | -48.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 501 | 464 | -7.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.3 | -44.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 32 | 32 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -48.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RAIL | -48.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.6% | 16.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | -6.6% | 28.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -52.3% change in RAIL stock from 10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -51.8% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 8.89 | 4.24 | -52.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 466 | 464 | -0.5% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.6 | 0.3 | -51.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 32 | 32 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -52.3% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RAIL | -52.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 27.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.8% | 34.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 61.2% change in RAIL stock from 10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 51.9% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312023 | 11062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 2.63 | 4.24 | 61.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 384 | 464 | 20.6% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.2 | 0.3 | 51.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 28 | 32 | -12.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 61.2% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2023 to 11/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RAIL | 61.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 81.9% | 30.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 72.0% | 30.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RAIL Return | 53% | -13% | -16% | 232% | 24% | -62% | 76% |
| Peers Return | 33% | -4% | 28% | 26% | 3% | 11% | 136% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RAIL Win Rate | 33% | 42% | 33% | 58% | 58% | 45% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 47% | 53% | 60% | 57% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 45% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RAIL Max Drawdown | -58% | -52% | -42% | -44% | -67% | -73% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -38% | -25% | -19% | -31% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TRN, GBX, GATX, WAB, ANDE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 11/6/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RAIL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 121.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.6% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 266 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -18.2% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.3% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.3% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 6 days |
In The Past
FreightCar America's stock fell -54.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 121.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | RAIL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 121.3% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 90 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -27.7% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 266 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -54.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -22.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.3% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 9 days | 6 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -52.3% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.7% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 146 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 183 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 146.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2012 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
FreightCar America's stock fell -54.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 121.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About FreightCar America (RAIL)
FreightCar America (RAIL) is a company that designs, manufactures, and sells various types of railcars and their associated components. Primarily serving the North American market, with additional exports to Latin America and the Middle East, the company's core business revolves around providing essential equipment for the transportation of bulk commodities and containerized freight. Its operations are divided into two main segments: Manufacturing, which focuses on producing new railcars, and Parts, which deals with selling railcar components.
The company offers a broad range of freight cars, including specialized types such as open top and covered hoppers, gondolas, intermodal flats, and various aggregate and ore cars. In addition to manufacturing new railcars, FreightCar America provides comprehensive services. These include selling used railcars, offering leasing solutions, and undertaking the rebuilding or conversion of existing railcars. The company also supplies a wide array of forged, cast, and fabricated parts critical for railcar construction and maintenance.
FreightCar America's customer base is diverse, primarily comprising financial institutions, major railroads, and shippers. These clients depend on the company's railcars and services to efficiently transport bulk commodities and containerized goods, highlighting FreightCar America's integral role as a supplier in the broader rail freight industry.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe FreightCar America (RAIL):
The General Motors of freight railcars.
The Boeing of freight railcars.
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- Freight Railcars: Designs, manufactures, and sells a range of new railcars for transporting bulk commodities and containerized freight, including hoppers, gondolas, and flat cars.
- Railcar Components: Sells new forged, cast, and fabricated parts for various railcars.
- Used Railcar Sales: Sells previously owned railcars.
- Railcar Leasing: Provides railcars for lease.
- Railcar Rebuilding and Conversion: Offers services to restore, overhaul, or modify existing railcars.
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FreightCar America (RAIL) sells primarily to other companies. Its major customers include:
- Financial institutions
- Railroads
- Shippers
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Nicholas J. Randall, President and Chief Executive Officer
Nicholas J. Randall was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of FreightCar America, Inc. effective May 1, 2024. He joined the company in 2023 as Chief Operating Officer. Mr. Randall has over 20 years of global experience in leading engineering and manufacturing operations at world-class companies and, since joining FreightCar America, has managed its operations and overseen the completion of its manufacturing campus in Castaños, Mexico.
Michael Riordan, Chief Financial Officer
Michael Riordan has served as Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer of FreightCar America, Inc. since March 2022. He joined the company in November 2020, initially serving as Chief Accounting Officer and Controller until his promotion. Prior to joining FreightCar America, Mr. Riordan was Controller at InnerWorkings from 2017 to 2020. He also held several financial management positions at Zekelman Industries (including its subsidiary Wheatland Tube, LLC) from 2013 to 2017 and various positions at PricewaterhouseCoopers earlier in his career. Mr. Riordan holds a Bachelor's Degree in Accounting & Finance from Miami University and is a Certified Public Accountant.
Matthew Tonn, Chief Commercial Officer
Matthew Tonn has served as Chief Commercial Officer of FreightCar America, Inc. since September 2019. He leads the company's sales and marketing efforts.
Juan Carlos Fuentes Sierra, Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer
Juan Carlos Fuentes Sierra has served as Corporate Controller and Chief Accounting Officer of FreightCar America, Inc. since April 2022.
Celia Perez, Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
Celia Perez is the Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary for FreightCar America, Inc.
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Key Risks to FreightCar America (RAIL)
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Cyclical Demand and Industry Weakness: FreightCar America operates in a highly cyclical industry, and its performance is significantly impacted by the demand for new railcars. Recent reports indicate "ongoing industry uncertainty," "macro headwinds," and "sluggish freight demand" are weighing on order conversion, leading to a significant decrease in backlog and a miss on revenue guidance for fiscal year 2026. If industry conditions do not improve as expected, it could have a negative impact on future revenue and profitability.
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Intense Competition: The company faces substantial competition within the North American railcar industry from established rivals such as CRRC, Greenbrier (GBX), and Trinity Industries (TRN). This intense competition, especially during periods of low market demand and excess manufacturing capacity, could lead to loss of market share and hinder FreightCar America's growth.
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High Debt and Capital-Intensive Business: FreightCar America's business is capital-intensive, leading to a significant amount of debt. The company ended 2025 with $152 million in total debt. While currently cash flow positive, an extended period of negative cash flow, potentially exacerbated by weak industry demand, could make managing this high debt a challenge.
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FreightCar America (NASDAQ: RAIL) operates in several addressable markets primarily within North America, focusing on the design, manufacture, and sale of various railcars, railcar components, and related services.
The key addressable markets for FreightCar America's main products and services are:
* **North American Freight Railcar Manufacturing Market:** This market, which involves the production and sale of new freight railcars, is estimated to be a $4.2 billion industry. FreightCar America manufactures various types of freight cars, including open top hoppers, covered hopper cars, gondolas, and flat cars. The estimated annual demand for new railcars in this market ranges from 45,000 to 60,000 units.
* **North American Railcar Leasing Market:** FreightCar America also engages in leasing railcars. This market was valued at USD 11.43 billion globally in 2025, with North America dominating with a market share of 72.44% in the same year. The North America railcar leasing market is projected to reach USD 7.9 billion by 2031, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% from 2025 to 2031. Another estimate indicates a growth of USD 8.30 billion at a CAGR of 9.1% between 2024 and 2029 for the North America railcar leasing market.
* **North America Freight Railcar Parts Market:** The company manufactures and sells forged, cast, and fabricated parts for various railcars. The North America freight railcar parts market is expected to grow from USD 4.5 billion in 2024 to approximately USD 9.5 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 7.8% during this forecast period. Another source estimates the North America freight railcar parts market to be valued at USD 4.93 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 8.13 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.4% from 2025 to 2032. North America was the largest region in the global freight railcar parts market, generating about USD 3.52 billion in 2023.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for FreightCar America (RAIL) over the next 2-3 years:
- Expansion of Aftermarket Business: FreightCar America is strategically growing its aftermarket business, which is expected to contribute to more stable and recurring revenue. The company completed the acquisition of Carly Railcar Components, with this acquisition projected to add $13 million to $15 million in aftermarket revenue in 2026. Overall aftermarket revenue is anticipated to be around $40 million to $41 million in 2026. This segment saw significant growth in 2025, with aftermarket revenue growing by 48.8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter.
- Growth in the Tank Car Market and Retrofit Programs: The company is making strategic investments to expand its presence in the tank car market. FreightCar America is progressing with tank car retrofit programs, with shipments for these programs expected to begin in the latter half of 2026 and continue into 2027. Capital expenditures in 2026 are partly allocated to support the vertical integration of tank car manufacturing.
- Conversion of Existing Backlog into Deliveries: FreightCar America concluded 2025 with a backlog of 1,926 railcar units, valued at $137.5 million. This backlog provides significant visibility for production in 2026, and the company is focused on converting these orders into profitable deliveries. The backlog represents a diversified mix of both new railcar builds and conversion programs.
- Anticipated Industry Demand Recovery and Replacement Cycle: Management notes that underlying fleet fundamentals in the North American railcar market remain strong due to aging equipment and deferred replacements across various car types. Long-term industry demand for railcar replacements is estimated to be between 35,000 and 40,000 units annually, which is considerably higher than the 25,000-30,000 deliveries expected for the overall industry in 2026. Additionally, an estimated 150,000 to 200,000 railcars are expected to be retired over the next four years, indicating a predictable driver for future replacement demand.
- Market Share Gains: FreightCar America increased its delivery market share by nearly 300 basis points in 2025, despite an overall decline in total industry deliveries. The company expects to maintain or further grow its market share in the coming years, driven by its strong commercial strategy, efficient operational execution, and ability to meet customer requirements.
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Share Issuance
- FreightCar America issued warrants to OC III LFE II LP and its affiliates in 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023.
- The number of outstanding shares for FreightCar America increased from 15.95 million in 2021 to 31.67 million in 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In 2025, FreightCar America acquired Carly Railcar Components to expand its aftermarket activities, enhancing its growing parts business and supporting more stable, recurring revenue.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the year ended December 31, 2024, totaled $5.0 million, a decrease year over year primarily due to the deferral of certain projects to 2026.
- Capital expenditures for 2025 amounted to $3.4 million.
- Anticipated capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to range between $7.0 million and $10.0 million, with a focus on production equipment enhancements and supporting manufacturing operations, including a portion allocated to the tank car retrofit program and future tank car production.
Peer Outperformance in Rail Transportation
RAIL has trailed 100% of its 6 Rail Transportation peers over 5Y. Rail Transportation ranks 7th of 23 industries in Industrials by median 5Y return.
Share of Rail Transportation constituents that RAIL has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
0%
of 6 industry peers · -49.0% return
3Y
67%
of 6 industry peers · 69.6% return
5Y
0%
of 6 industry peers · -10.4% return
No Rail Transportation peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten RAIL by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Rail Transportation is RAIL's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 31.6% | 32.1% | 105.5% | MATX 153% · KEX 106% |
| Construction & Engineering | 28 | -22.1% | 92.9% | 93.8% | FIX 949% · STRL 830% · AGX 565% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 14 | 7.5% | 66.0% | 93.0% | ALSN 256% · WAB 210% · CAT 195% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 54 | -0.9% | 55.7% | 55.7% | ATI 891% · FTAI 850% · HWM 525% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 5.3% | 32.0% | 31.6% | DXPE 298% · AIT 187% · URI 180% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 0.9% | 49.5% | 28.8% | CRS 795% · MLI 302% · SYM 266% |
| Rail Transportation ← | 7 | 34.9% | 68.8% | 25.2% | CSX 48% · UNP 36% · NSC 25% |
| Diversified Support Services | 34 | 15.4% | 37.0% | 15.8% | CXW 200% · OPLN 134% · CACI 113% |
| Building Products | 34 | -6.6% | 6.9% | 12.8% | MOD 760% · GFF 339% · TT 132% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 30.0% | 10.9% | 2.2% | XPO 270% · R 245% · ARCB 19% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 13.4% | 3.3% | -0.6% | CSW 99% · CSL 70% · DD 67% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 10 | 19.2% | 22.9% | -2.5% | PBI 157% · HNI 37% · MSA 18% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 39 | -8.1% | 59.1% | -5.3% | POWL 1454% · VRT 565% · BE 441% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -11.7% | 1.7% | -13.8% | EXLS 57% · BR 20% · G -10% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | 0.2% | -15.7% | -24.2% | HURN 210% · FCN 36% · BAH 9% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 16 | 14.3% | -4.3% | -25.5% | DE 102% · TTC 15% · AGCO 3% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -19.4% | 26.4% | -27.0% | GEO 191% · CLH 168% · RSG 98% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -45.7% | 29.4% | -27.5% | BCO 65% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 6.4% | 67.5% | -34.4% | LTM 3140% · UAL 114% · DAL 105% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -29.4% | -9.4% | -40.2% | FDX 75% · EXPD 56% · CHRW 50% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 23.6% | -9.6% | -42.8% | ADP 48% · FA 24% · PAYX 10% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -19.6% | 37.4% | -58.0% | UBER 45% · CAR -58% · LYFT -68% |
| Airport Services | 4 | -46.5% | -66.9% | -87.0% | JOBY -40% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are limited to companies above $2B market cap.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| FreightCar America Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 | |
| Is FreightCar America Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | 10/17/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 48.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 2.1 |
| Rev LTM | 2,336 |
| Op Inc LTM | 246 |
| FCF LTM | -111 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 37 |
| CFO LTM | 225 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 331 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -0.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 19.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | 474 | 541 | 346 | 353 | 193 |
| Aftermarket | 27 | 18 | 12 | ||
| Corporate | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 10 |
| Total | 501 | 559 | 358 | 365 | 203 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | 62 | 60 | 32 | 15 | -1 |
| Aftermarket | 7 | 7 | 4 | ||
| Corporate | -35 | -29 | -25 | -30 | -22 |
| Total | 34 | 37 | 10 | -15 | -23 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacturing | 142 | 166 | 207 | 149 | 154 |
| Corporate | 66 | 46 | 42 | 51 | 46 |
| Consolidated income taxes receivable and deferred income taxes | 55 | 1 | |||
| Aftermarket | 27 | 11 | 9 | ||
| Consolidated income taxes receivable | 1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 290 | 224 | 259 | 200 | 201 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $4.24 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 0.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 04/06/2005 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -71.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $6.07 | $8.42 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -30.1% | -49.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 75.1% | 65.9% |
| Downside Capture | 219.47 | 230.94 |
| Upside Capture | -162.00 | 112.61 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 12.9% | 29.6% |
RAIL Betas & Captures as of 10/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.12 | 0.73 | 1.30 | 0.92 | 1.49 | 1.47 |
| Up Beta | 23.63 | 9.74 | 5.38 | 1.66 | 1.45 | 1.55 |
| Down Beta | -0.39 | -0.23 | -0.79 | -0.31 | 0.42 | 0.88 |
| Up Capture | -502% | -199% | -82% | 15% | 146% | 551% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 12 | 18 | 28 | 62 | 130 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 28 | 60 | 122 | 365 |
| Down Capture | 167% | 167% | 246% | 178% | 162% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 25 | 36 | 64 | 121 | 325 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 23 | 34 | 61 | 120 | 361 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RAIL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAIL | -51.0% | 65.9% | -0.79 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 7.1% | 17.8% | 0.22 | 34.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 9.5% | 13.6% | 0.40 | 27.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 1.6% | 28.7% | 0.05 | 19.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 38.4% | 21.2% | 1.42 | -11.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.3% | 14.2% | 0.51 | 11.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.9% | 43.6% | -0.60 | 9.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RAIL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAIL | -1.8% | 68.8% | 0.27 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 10.9% | 17.7% | 0.45 | 31.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.3% | 17.3% | 0.48 | 29.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.5% | 19.1% | 0.74 | 11.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 19.6% | 0.30 | 7.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 20.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.1% | 51.6% | 0.26 | 15.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RAIL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAIL | -11.4% | 74.5% | 0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.0% | 20.1% | 0.56 | 31.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 18.0% | 0.70 | 26.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.5% | 0.59 | 5.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 18.1% | 0.33 | 11.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 21.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.1% | 66.3% | 1.00 | 7.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/28/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/19/2026 | -31.4% | -24.8% | |
| 8/3/2026 | 3.6% | -4.0% | -18.8% |
| 5/4/2026 | -4.2% | 3.8% | -8.8% |
| 3/9/2026 | -21.1% | -35.6% | -32.5% |
| 11/10/2025 | -6.8% | -18.7% | 3.0% |
| 8/4/2025 | 4.8% | -8.5% | -15.4% |
| 5/5/2025 | 9.0% | 11.2% | 30.7% |
| 3/12/2025 | 17.5% | 3.0% | -24.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 11 | 8 |
| # Negative | 9 | 12 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 7.7% | 15.4% | 37.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -9.4% | -12.6% |
| Max Positive | 24.1% | 69.5% | 165.3% |
| Max Negative | -31.4% | -35.6% | -32.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/19/2026 | -31.4% | -24.8% | |
| 8/3/2026 | 3.6% | -4.0% | -18.8% |
| 5/4/2026 | -4.2% | 3.8% | -8.8% |
| 3/9/2026 | -21.1% | -35.6% | -32.5% |
| 11/10/2025 | -6.8% | -18.7% | 3.0% |
| 8/4/2025 | 4.8% | -8.5% | -15.4% |
| 5/5/2025 | 9.0% | 11.2% | 30.7% |
| 3/12/2025 | 17.5% | 3.0% | -24.4% |
| 11/12/2024 | -3.0% | 6.6% | -1.9% |
| 8/12/2024 | 16.8% | 64.8% | 165.3% |
| 3/18/2024 | 10.9% | 19.0% | 11.2% |
| 11/6/2023 | 2.3% | -10.2% | -12.9% |
| 8/7/2023 | 0.0% | -1.4% | -7.1% |
| 5/9/2023 | -4.2% | 3.1% | -5.6% |
| 11/7/2022 | 0.5% | -6.8% | -17.0% |
| 8/8/2022 | 14.5% | 15.4% | -8.8% |
| 5/10/2022 | 6.2% | 43.5% | 38.2% |
| 3/22/2022 | 24.1% | 33.9% | 36.5% |
| 11/15/2021 | -4.1% | -20.5% | -12.4% |
| 8/16/2021 | 6.5% | -0.6% | -6.9% |
| 5/17/2021 | -17.7% | -18.8% | -13.8% |
| 3/24/2021 | 23.4% | 69.5% | 71.5% |
| 11/10/2020 | -11.5% | -8.6% | 47.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 11 | 8 |
| # Negative | 9 | 12 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 7.7% | 15.4% | 37.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.8% | -9.4% | -12.6% |
| Max Positive | 24.1% | 69.5% | 165.3% |
| Max Negative | -31.4% | -35.6% | -32.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/18/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/03/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 03/09/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/10/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 03/12/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/12/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 03/18/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/06/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/27/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 03/22/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/15/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/16/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/17/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 03/24/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/09/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/10/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/12/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 03/04/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/31/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 11/2/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Railcar Deliveries | Reported | 3100 | 3200 | 3300 | -13.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 3700 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 370.00 Mil | 390.00 Mil | 410.00 Mil | -10.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 435.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 15.00 Mil | 17.00 Mil | 19.00 Mil | -57.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 40.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Railcar Deliveries | Reported | 3500 | 3700 | 3900 | -12.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 4250 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Railcar Deliveries Growth | Reported | -10.3% | -13.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 3.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Annualized Structural Savings | Reported | 12.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 410.00 Mil | 435.00 Mil | 460.00 Mil | -17.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 525.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | -13.2% | -18.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 4.8% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 36.00 Mil | 40.00 Mil | 44.00 Mil | -12.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 45.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | Reported | -2.9% | -13.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 10.4% for 2026 | |||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Railcar Deliveries | Reported | 4000 | 4250 | 4500 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 4250 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Railcar Deliveries Growth | Reported | 3.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Revenue | Reported | 500.00 Mil | 525.00 Mil | 550.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 525.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | Reported | 4.8% | ||||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 41.00 Mil | 45.50 Mil | 50.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 45.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Growth | Reported | 10.4% | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/16/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perez, Celia | GC and Corp Secretary | Direct | Sell | 6262025 | 8.59 | 7,982 | 68,596 | 432,492 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Perez, Celia | GC and Corp Secretary | Direct | Sell | 6262025 | 8.59 | 7,982 | 68,596 | 432,492 | Form |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Rail Transportation Resources |
| Railway Gazette International |
| Progressive Railroading |
| Railway Age |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 11/6/2026